Month: July 2008

Rasmussen (7/23, likely voters) (6/18 in parentheses):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (53)

John Sununu (R-inc.): 45 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The UNH poll that came out yesterday showing a 46-42 lead for Shaheen seemed pretty sketchy, especially when looking at the crosstabs. But now along comes the newest poll from Rasmussen and it shows a margin that’s also narrowed quite a bit. (With leaners pushed, it’s 51-45 for Shaheen.)

The same sample shows Obama leading McCain 47-41 (49-45 when leaners are pushed), which is typical for New Hampshire. Just based on that, it doesn’t seem to be an unusually Republican-heavy sample.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/21-23, likely voters) (5/22 in parentheses):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 44 (42)

Roger Wicker (R-inc.): 45 (44)

(MoE: ±4%)

Not much movement in Mississippi, but it shows a very close race. And one that will probably stay close the whole way through, dependent largely on how much extra African-American turnout is generated by Obama’s coattails.

How big are those coattails? The same sample says McCain is beating Obama 51-42. That’s up from 54-39 in the previous poll, and more importantly, up from the 59-40 margin from the 2004 presidential election.

Two years ago on daily Kos, I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They’re BAAAAACK, and this time, I’m cross posting them here!

Method:

 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com.  I only included polls in 2008.

 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 75% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.

 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

Now, pollster.com has its own charts, and there’s nothing wrong with them.  I like mine better.  First, they have more information. I show different outcomes with different divisions of the undecided.  Second, I like my smooths better.  Third, I assign the undecideds, making things a little less choppy.  

On to the first two races:

Alaska:

If we assume that the undecideds break evenly (dotted lines) then Begich is up by about 5.  If we assume they favor the incumbent (seems unlikely in Alaska) then Stevens and Begich are tied.

Colorado:

If we assume that the undecideds break evenly (dotted lines) then Udall is up by about 11; if we assume they break in favor of the Republicans (as incumbents) then Udall is up by about 5

Some notes:

 1.   For any poll and for either method, the percentages add to 100.  

 2.  If the hollow box is far from the solid box, then there are a lot of undecideds.

Today we’re excited to announce that our campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record we set earlier this year. Combined with the last three quarters when Sen. Schauer outraised incumbent Tim Walberg, we have brought in more than $1.33 million and have more than $928,000 cash on hand.

In this quarter alone, the campaign collected more than 1,100 total contributions, with more than 83 percent of individual contributions from donors in Michigan. With just over 100 days to go before the general election, we have now raised more than our opponent brought in during the entire 2006 election cycle.

Congressman Walberg has done nothing to improve Michigan’s job climate since taking office, but we fully expect him to do whatever it takes to keep his seat in Washington. That’s why it’s so important for us to keep working hard to defend against the impending negative attacks from Walberg’s wealthy donors.

Thanks to everyone in the netroots community for your continued support!

B.J. Neidhardt

Campaign Manager

Schauer for Congress (MI-07) | Facebook

Update: Here are Tim Walberg’s numbers for the second quarter. We have now out-raised the incumbent Congressman four quarters in a row…

Raised for the Quarter: $364,924

Total Raised this Cycle: $1,208,345

Spent this Quarter: $114,253

Cash on Hand: $855,137

So far, few have had much to say about Keith Fimian, the GOP’s would-be successor to retiring Rep. Tom Davis. Aside from his wealth and his strong fundraising, Fimian has been a blank slate on the issues. But the Washington Examiner has been doing a bit of digging, and is revealing a portrait of someone startlingly out of step with the socially liberal, Democratic-trending Northern Virginia district that he’s attempting to represent in Congress:

An analysis of Fimian’s recent donors shows he’s collected more than $100,000 from dozens of members – or relatives of those members – of Legatus, a national organization of Catholic business executives created by Domino’s Pizza founder and pro-life activist Tom Monaghan. Fimian reports taking in more than $1.3 million by the end of June. Legatus is based in Ave Maria, Fla., a planned religious community also co-founded by Monaghan, who drew protests from civil libertarians when he reportedly outlined plans to ban pornography and contraception from the town’s stores.

While Fimian, also a member of the Legatus board of governors, makes no attempt to hide his association with the group, it could prove problematic in a district that has voted less and less faithfully Republican in recent years. He is running against Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly, a powerful Democrat.

Fimian said he’s pro-life and universally opposes the death penalty, but declined to elaborate on views on other social issues, arguing they are irrelevant to the 11th District.

Tom Davis was able to survive so successfully in the 11th district in large part due to his moderate approach to social issues. While Fimian may be attempting to campaign as a “business conservative” (of which there are many in the 11th), his pro-life views and associations with the likes of the utterly creepy Monaghan may prove to be an albatross come fall. That’s good news for Democrat Gerry Connolly.

The UNH poll (not one of our favorites) shows a major tightening in the NH Senate race.  Even with a more GOP-friendly sample, Sununu has gained among independents.  And Carol Shea-Porter

still trails Jeb Bradley; Paul Hodes is under 50%.  And the batch of internal polls in House races isn’t all that great news either, even most of them would fill several salt shakers.

And Udall is in a tight race in Colorado, unable to pull away.  The Rasmussen Congressional tracker has tightened from 48-34 Dem to just 45-36 in four weeks.

Has the energy issue given the GOP new life?  I’m just wondering if the next Congress has fewer Democrats in it, not more.

Anyway, here are my top ten Senate rankings for late July, rated from most likely to flip to least likely:

1a.  Virginia

1b.  New Mexico

3.  Alaska–Stevens in big trouble–will the GOP

find a replacement?

4.  Colorado–As Obama goes, so goes this race.

5.  New Hampshire–It’s not a four point race, but it’s getting there–Shaheen just may not have “it.”

6.  Louisiana–Very close and may depend on black turnout.

7.  Oregon–Merkley gaining, but so uncharismatic.

8.  Mississippi B–Again, this could come down

to turnout.

9.  Minnesota–Who’s right, Rasmussen or SUSA?

10. North Carolina–Dole a stiff, but Hagen really close both the money gap and the poll gap?

Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn’t try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.

Among these nine initial seats – eight of which are held by Republicans – the rating of four has changed this month. New Mexico has moved from lean Democrat to likely Democrat, Colorado from toss-up to lean Democrat, and Oregon from lean Republican to toss-up. Only Minnesota has moved in the opposite direction, from toss-up to Lean Republican.

9 competitive seats is already a large number – comparable to the field of play two years ago. But with 2008 shaping up to be as good a Democratic year as 2006, the DSCC is aware that it has to do the most of this opportunity and is eager to put even more seats in play. As a result, we have seen a lot  of actions since my previous Senate rankings in the second and third-tier of GOP-held seats: In North Carolina, strong polling by Kay Hagan forced Elizabeth Dole to air a round of advertisements, but the DSCC has reserved up to $6 million of air time in the fall. This race is the most likely candidate to join the “initial nine.”

In Maine, Democrats have still not been able to tie Susan Collins to her party label, but the $5 million the DSCC is budgeting for the fall campaign is a huge amount of money for this inexpensive state. In Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford’s primary victory certainly exasperated progressives, but the first slate of polls suggests all hope is not lost for Democrats. As for Texas, Kansas and even Idaho, Democrats would need titanic shifts that for now remain unimaginable, but the mere fact that these races are being discussed is horrendous news for the GOP.

Will Democrats be able to go beyond eight serious targets and seriously contest one of these long-shot races? How close will they come to a sweep of their initial eight targets and will they save Louisiana? These are the obvious questions to ask out of these new rankings and I will be closely monitoring any signs of further shifts in the electoral map. More precise questions that will come to determine the make-up of the next Senate include: Will John Sununu be able to take advantage of McCain’s good name in New Hampshire to appeal to independents? How much will Obama boost black turnout in Louisiana and in Mississippi? Will Al Franken be able to put his personal controversies behind him? And is the Maine electorate already over Bush?

The full new rankings are available here, with this accompanying map:

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-9 Senate seats.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 7 seats, for a 58-42 majority.

Likely Takeover (2 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seat)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

It is hard to believe that Jim Gilmore’s situation has worsened over the past two months given how much of an underdog the former Republican Governor was to start with. It is never a good sign when a presumptive nominee wins his party’s nod with 50.3% of the vote, but that is what happened to Gilmore at his party’s nominating convention. As if this proof of an unenergized conservative base was not enough, the state GOP’s moderate wing is also backing away from Gilmore: incumbent Senator John Warner, the Republican whom Gilmore is seeking to replace, is refusing to endorse his own party’s nominee! The only hope for Republicans to retain this seat is for Barack Obama to tap Mark Warner as his running-mate. Warner might very well have been the favorite in the veepstakes… if he were not favored to win this Senate race.

2. New Mexico (Open; Last ranking: 2 and lean take-over)

Three giants of New Mexico politics entered this race after Senator Domenici announced his retirement back in October. The political career of one of them has already been cut short: Rep. Heather Wilson lost a heated and narrow GOP primary to Rep. Steve Pearce, leaving him in a difficult match-up against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. Pearce is much more conservative than Wilson, making it more difficult for him to appeal to independents in this blue-leaning year, but Wilson had her own ethical issues.

This is an open seat in a swing-state in a Democratic year — that by itself is a recipe for success Democrats, just as it was in Minnesota in 2006. In a very similar situation, Amy Klochubar opened a large lead against Rep. Kennedy in what was supposed to be a competitive open seat. Now, Udall is leading Pearce by 2:1 in recent polls and has 6 times more cash on hand than his Republican rival. That means Pearce is dependent on the help of the NRSC, help that is unlikely to come. In mid-June, Sen. Ensign, the NRSC chairman, implied that his committee was giving up on the Virginia and New Mexico races. That just about seals the deal in this race.

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Last ranking: 3)

The parallels between this race and Pennsylvania’s 2006 Senate race continue. Despite predictions that the race is bound to tighten and that John Sununu is too good a politician to go down without a fight, polls are showing no sign of a competitive race – with the latest numbers finding Shaheen leading by 22%. But Republicans are hoping that the more accurate parallel for the Sununu-Shaheen race will be North Carolina’s 2004 race, when Rep. Burr had stockpiled his cash to launch an ad blitzkrieg starting in September and had turned a consistent deficit into a narrow victory on Election Day. Now, it is Sununu who is saving up for a big push in the fall; as of the end of the second quarter, he has $5 million in the bank versus $2 million for Jeanne Shaheen. Will a late wave of advertisements be enough?

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4 and toss-up)

For the first time since the November rankings, Colorado is not rated a “toss-up.” As had been expected from the day the match-up between Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer was set up, the Democrat has pull ahead and is now consistently ahead by 9-10% in recent polls. A combination of factors explains why Udall finally jumped up to his first lead. First, this year’s Democratic bent gives Democrats an edge in any open seat race that should have been tight. Second, Bob Schaffer had a bad few months, in particular over stories broken by the Denver Post about his association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Third, Udall fundraising advantage has allowed his campaign to spend more aggressively on ads. Udall outspent Shaffer 3:1 in the second quarter, and the DSCC jumped in with an attack ad of its own.

Meanwhile, we are starting to get a better idea of the campaign arguments Udall and Schaffer will use in the months ahead, and the first debate that opposed the two men in mid-July set some battle lines: Energy is already a hot topic in the campaign, with the two candidates exchanging barbs on the subject and Udall has devoted the entirety of one of his first ads to energy. Schaffer is determined to paint Udall as weak and unable to make much of a decision, while Udall is casting himself as a bipartisan with a commitment to consensus. It does look like Mark Udall is running as more of a moderate than his cousin Tom in New Mexico; beyond his insistence on bipartisanship, Mark voted for the FISA bill and Tom voted against it.

Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)

5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 5)

Ted Stevens is suffering from the corruption scandal that has ensnared him and the state’s Republican Party and it is even affecting his fundraising abilities, as Mark Begich outraised the entrenched incumbent in the second quarter. Contrary to Rep. Young in the at-large House race, Stevens does not face a credible primary challenge, a relief for Democrats as the state’s red leaning would kick in to help a Republican not plagued by ethical controversies.

Begich has been at worst tied with Stevens for months now. He went up on TV in early July, with one ad introducing himself and the other devoted to energy issues (with a joint pledge to develop alternative energies and to fight to “open ANWR”). Perhaps boosted by his increased media exposure and his advertisement efforts, Begich has jumped to a 9% lead in the latest poll, though we will naturally need confirmation of that number before drawing any conclusion.

The Democrat’s efforts will be boosted by those of the Obama campaign, which has unexpectedly decided to make Alaska into a battleground state at the presidential level. Alaska polls have shown a tight presidential race, a sharp departure from past cycles in which Bush crushed his opponents by more than 20%. That means that  contrary to Knowles in the 2004 Senate race, Begich will not have to swim counter-current and that he might benefit from Obama’s organizational efforts.

6. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 8 )

Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker were once roommates, but they are quickly becoming bitter rivals. Polls confirm that the race is a pure toss-up. The Republican incumbent has a clear advantage on the financial front ($3 million of cash on hand versus less than $800K for Musgrove at the end of the second quarter), but the DSCC has already rushed in to help Musgrove respond to Wicker’s ads, demonstrating how seriously it took this contest. The DSCC’s move triggered further controversy: Republicans are charging that the ads break campaign finance rules. Democrats answered by filing their own complaint about Wicker’s fundraising.

It is true that Musgrove would have had a better chance had this special election been held in March, as it should have. Now, Wicker has more time to introduce himself to voters and blunt Musgrove’s high name recognition; the GOP believes November’s turnout will be more uniform than it was in MS-01 in May and that a more conservative electorate will give Wicker victory. But Democrats remain confident: First, there will be no party labels next to the candidates’ names. Second, this is one down-the-ballot race in which the Obama candidacy could have a very clear effect: If there is a significant boost in black turnout, it could prove all Musgrove needs to pick-up this seat. The African-American vote is more than ever the key metric of this senatorial race, and one polls are unlikely to capture accurately.

7. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)

Not much has changed in this race since the end of May. For one, Louisiana remains the one credible pick-up opportunity for Republicans, and as such will remain a high priority for the NRSC. Second, the two candidates remain on par financially, with Kennedy keeping up with Landrieu’s fundraising for the second quarter in a row, though the incumbent retains a 2:1 advantage in the cash on hand department. As for polls, they show  Landrieu ahead but the race has tightened a bit, with the  Democrat ahead mid-single digits and under 50% in a number of recent polls. This is one state in which the presidential race is likely to help the Republican, as Louisiana is not a state Obama will do much of a dent. He might increase black turnout a bit, but the African-American vote’s decrease since Katrina will be an advantage to Kennedy. One strong argument Democrats hold is statements made by Kennedy in 2004 when he was running as a Democrat for Senate.

8. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 9 and lean retention)

Democrats have targeted Gordon Smith since the very first days of the cycle. But a disappointing recruitment process followed by primary difficulties for Jeff Merkley made Democrats anxious that they could be wasting an opportunity here. Since the May 20th primary, however, Merkley has grown stronger and is consistently polling within a few points of Smith. In fact, Merkley led in a poll for the first time just a few days ago. News that Merkley had outraised Smith in the second quarter hardened his position as a strong challenger.

Smith has been aware of the target he has on his back and has been preparing since the start of the cycle. Despite being distanced in second quarter fundraising, he still has a 8:1 in cash on hand and so much of Merkley’s money was spent in the primary that his campaign is now in financial difficulty. Furthermore, Smith has been rapidly moving to the center, aware that he is at danger of becoming this cycle’s Lincoln Chaffee: a Republican incumbent in a Democratic state who drowns in the blue tsunami, heightened by the probability that Obama scores a large victory in Oregon.

Smith’s solution has been to throw his party label overboard and run as a consensus candidate ready to embrace both side. And he is going very far in that direction. Not only did he run an ad featuring a Democratic state representative and a state Senator endorsing him, but he followed that up with a spot embracing… Barack Obama, in a desperate-seeming effort to show his willingness to work across the aisle. This strategy does not come without risk: Smith, after all, is supporting John McCain and his positioning could confuse voters. And it will make Smith that much more vulnerable to Obama campaigning on Merkley’s side (the Illinois Senator wasted no time issuing a statement reiterating his support for Merkley).

Lean Retention (2 R, 0 D)

9. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 7 and toss-up)

This is the first time in six Senate rankings that Minnesota is not rated as a toss-up. After a wild two months in which Al Franken was undermined by a succession of controversies, polls have clearly shifted away from the former comedian. Except for Rasmussen, which continues to show a toss-up race, other pollsters (including SUSA and Quinnipiac) find Coleman leading by double-digits.

Facing a shrewd incumbent with the reputation of a solid campaigner, Franken had no room for error. Yet, his campaign started tanking with revelations of Franken’s tax problems and with the controversy over his 2000 allegedly-pornographic essay in Playboy; this led a Democratic congresswoman state that she was not sure she could support Franken’s campaign and led Planned Parenthood to blast Franken’s “misogynist remarks.” Next came another firestorm over a rape joke Franken helped write on SNL in 1995. Now, the Coleman campaign is airing a personal attack ad blasting Franken for not paying taxes and writing “juicy porn.”

Franken and Coleman’s strategies are clear. The Democrat wants to make this a referendum about the incumbent and about the Republican Party. Franken denounces the “Bush-Coleman recession” and emphasizes Coleman’s proximity to his party’s leadership. The Republican wants to make this a referendum about what he believes is Franken’s polarizing persona. Whoever manages to frame the debate best is likely to win the election – and both candidates have millions of dollars in the bank to define their opponent.

As if all of this agitation was not sufficient, there was the Jesse Ventura question mark. The former Governor only announced he would not run for Senate on July 14th, and his decision was a relief for Franken’s campaign who had far more to lose from a Ventura candidacy. Now, Franken faces trouble within the DFL. Despite some intra-party rumblings back in May, Franken easily won the DFL’s endorsement. Yet, a well-connected attorney recently announced she would run against Franken in the Democratic primary. She is unlikely to threaten Franken’s nomination, but her late run could prevent the former comedian from turning his attention to Coleman.

10. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 10)

Minnesota concludes the list of the eight obvious Democratic targets. The DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, and has made a clear choice that North Carolina has the most potential. Chuck Schumer has been including the state in the list of top targets for many weeks now and the DSCC has reserved up air time for up to $6 million in advertising starting mid-September. Think about that number for a minute: Democrats are committing to invest $6 million in their 9th target in a Republican-leaning state in a presidential year. What better sign of confidence could the DSCC send?

Yet, Republicans have reason to feel confident about this race as well. As of my last rankings, a

series of polls had just found Kay Hagan enjoying a stunning post-primary bounce to almost tie Elizabeth Dole. But the Republican incumbent then unleashed a big advertisement campaign. Combined with the fading of Hagan’s primary victory bounce, Dole has recovered a low-double digit  lead in all institutes, including SUSA, Rasmussen, PPP and Civitas.

But it is too late for Dole to make herself look strong. She still hovers around the 50% threshold of vulnerability, and the quick drop in her numbers in May shows that her support is weak. And Hagan will benefit from the Obama campaign’s decision to contest North Carolina, particularly since the McCain campaign is doing little to counter. It will help Hagan overcome North Carolina red leaning and it will allow her to rely on Obama’s turnout efforts. North Carolina might look less promising for Democrats than it did late May, but it retains unexpected potential.

Rankings continue here.

Remember Brock Olivo the football jock turned Republican pol who said he was qualified because “he had a social studies class.”

Well at last night’s Republican primary debate we found out what he learned in social studies class.

Asked by the debate moderator which founding father he most admired and why, he chose…drumrolll please……

Abraham Lincoln!

See video on this Kos diary here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

And if that wasn’t all, another leading Republican contender picked Ronald Reagan as their favorite founding father.

Meanwhile Judy Baker on the Democratic side of the MO-09 congressional race lead all House candidates in the nation in ActBlue fundraising last week and Steve Gaw finished in the top ten.

Fun times in the MO-09.

At Ryan for Kentucky, we believe that the playing field has been tilted against working families for far too long. My whole life, it seems that war has been waged on union workers and workers attempting to form new unions. I have witnessed this personally in a union fight. Although initially, 80% of the workers at our warehouse signed on to become union, the long process allowed the company to come in and “behind the scenes” peel off these votes. How? By turning worker against worker. Promising promotion of certain workers, and higher wages and more benefits if the union failed.

In the end, After workers being bribed and intimidated on the day of the union vote, it failed by one vote. Then, a month after the union vote, ou company announced it was shutting down our warehouse and moving elsewhere.

Yes, the playing field has long been tilted against workers in this country organizing new unions. The Bush years have only seen it grow worse. Our Representative, Exxon Ed Whitfield has been a constant enemy of workers having the right to organize for better lives.

He voted against the Employee Free Choice Act which would put an end to the problems I just described. Yes, to millionaires like Ed Whitfield, employees should not have the right to negotiate with corporations and companies that pull in billions of dollars a year for better wages and benefits.

But it goes much deeper than that. Exxon Ed Whitfield never met a free trade agreement he didn’t love. Forget the fact that American high-paying middle-class jobs that have been the backbone of this country since WWII are being shipped overseas by greedy corporations. Forget the fact that Free Trade has cost the American worker dearly, Exxon Eddie doesn’t even believe in helping those whose livelihoods were lost by the corporate sponsored government policies of greed, and profit:

Voted NO on assisting workers who lose jobs due to globalization.

H.R.3920: Trade and Globalization Act of 2007: Amends the Trade Act of 1974 to allow the filing for trade adjustment assistance (TAA) by adversely affected workers. Revises group eligibility requirements for TAA to cover: (1) a shift of production or services to abroad; or (2) imports of articles or services from abroad.

Proponents support voting YES because:

Rep. RANGEL: In recent years, trade policy has been a dividing force. This legislation develops a new trade policy that more adequately addresses the growing perception that trade is not working for American workers. The Trade and Globalization Assistance Act would expand training and benefits for workers while also helping to encourage investment in communities that have lost jobs to increased trade–particularly in our manufacturing sector. The bill is a comprehensive policy expanding opportunities for American workers, industries, and communities to prepare for and overcome the challenges created by expanded trade.

Reference: Trade and Globalization Assistance Act; Bill HR3920 ; vote number 2007-1025 on Oct 31, 2007

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Lets look back at all the bad deals Exxon Ed Whitfield has voted for to destroy the American middle-class, and preserve corporate profits at all costs. His old buddy Tom Delay, whom he Tried to bail out and voted with 91% of the time  co-sponsored this one:

Voted YES on implementing free trade agreement with Chile.

United States-Chile Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act: Vote to pass a bill that would put into effect a trade agreement between the US and Chile. The agreement would reduce tariffs and trade barriers between the US and Chile. The trade pact would decrease duties and tariffs on agricultural and textile products. It would also open markets for services. The trade pact would establish intellectual property safeguards and would call for enforcement of environmental and labor standards.

Reference: Bill sponsored by DeLay, R-TX; Bill HR 2738 ; vote number 2003-436 on Jul 24, 2003

And it just goes on and on:

Voted YES on implementing US-Singapore free trade agreement.

Vote to pass a bill that would put into effect a trade agreement between the United States and Singapore. The trade agreement would reduce tariffs and trade barriers between the United States and Singapore. The agreement would remove tariffs on goods and duties on textiles, and open markets for services The agreement would also establish intellectual property, environmental and labor standards.

Reference: US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement; Bill HR 2739 ; vote number 2003-432 on Jul 24, 2003

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Voted YES on implementing US-Australia Free Trade Agreement.

United States-Australia Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act: implementing free trade with protections for the domestic textile and apparel industries.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Rep Tom DeLay [R, TX-22]; Bill H.R.4759 ; vote number 2004-375 on Jul 14, 2005

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

Voted YES on implementing CAFTA, Central America Free Trade.

To implement the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement. A vote of YES would:

Progressively eliminate customs duties on all originating goods traded among the participating nations

Preserve U.S. duties on imports of sugar goods over a certain quota

Remove duties on textile and apparel goods traded among participating nations

Prohibit export subsidies for agricultural goods traded among participating nations

Provide for cooperation among participating nations on customs laws and import licensing procedures

Encourage each participating nation to adopt and enforce laws ensuring high levels of sanitation and environmental protection

Recommend that each participating nation uphold the International Labor Organization Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work

Urge each participating nation to obey various international agreements regarding intellectual property rights

Reference: CAFTA Implementation Bill; Bill HR 3045 ; vote number 2005-443 on Jul 28, 2005

Whitfield’s was thedeciding vote on that one.

Then we ended with this:

Voted YES on promoting free trade with Peru.

Approves the Agreement entered into with the government of Peru. Provides for the Agreement’s entry into force upon certain conditions being met on or after January 1, 2008.

Prescribes requirements for:

enforcement of textile and apparel rules of origin;

certain textile and apparel safeguard measures; and

enforcement of export laws governing trade of timber products from Peru.

http://www.massscorecard.org/H…

We need a leader in Washington who doesn’t scorn and ridicule American workers daily. We need a leader in Washington who believes that America should indeed have a middle-class:

It is not hard to figure out that outsourcing American jobs to third world countries is destroying our middle class.  We must stop rewarding companies who send our jobs oversees with tax cuts and begin rewarding companies who invest in our nations future.  

As a member of a staunch union family, and a former union member myself, I understand first hand the need for a living wage as well as benefits and training programs.  I will work tirelessly to fight for the rights of the working person.  For far too long, the citizens of Kentucky have been victimized by the million dollar boy’s club.  It is time for change!

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

New leadership brings promise to Kentucky, and American workers!!:

Old leadership brings about the same old complaints:

Please, help us win this race and bring a young, energetic, and most of all compassionate leader who isn’t afraid to fight for workers and Democratic values to Washington:

 

OH-3, with a Cook PVI of just R+3 and centered in Dayton, was represented for a long time by a moderate Democrat Tony Hall. Next to the Detroit/Flint area, no metro area has suffered more from auto industry job losses than Dayton.

OH-3 was redrawn for the 2002 election in exclude some black and working-class white inner suburbs of Dayton, and include some rural and exurban areas. Hall decided to accept a position at the UN rather than run in the new district, and Republican Mayor of Dayton Mike Turner won the district.

Despite the redistricting, OH-3 nonetheless still has a black population of 17% and the white population is heavily unionized or in union households.

The economy of the area is in free-fall, with multiple auto plants employing several thousand people either shut down or scheduled to shut down.  White collar workers also are suffering massive job losses as Mead Corporation recently moved its headquarters and several thousand jobs to Virginia after its merger with another company.

What were once upper-middle class suburbs in this district are now several years into a deep recession that is rapidly getting worse.

The Dem candidate, Jane Mitakides, is credible and has decent fundraising. Neither candidate has actually raised all that much, but they don’t need to given the very cheap price of TV time on Dayton TV.

Right now Turner leads COH 976K to 271K, but Mitakides has been beating or at parity with Turner’s fundraising for 3 straight quarters. The DCCC would only have to spend 1.5% of its current COH to bring Mitakides into fundraising parity with Turner.

Jane will also benefit from massive spending and organization efforts by Obama and the DNC and from union-funded 527 organizations.

This district voted for Dem Senate challanger Brown over incumbent Republican Mike DeWine in 2006, despite the fact that DeWine is from the Dayton area. Jane’s blog notes that

The balance of registrations went from 58,178 Democratic vs. 78,799 GOP before the 2008 primary to a whopping advantage of  128,793 registered Democrats vs. 80,932 GOP as of the end of May.

In other words, the district went from a 20,000 voter GOP registration advantage to a 48,000 Dem advantage.

While this is not as “sexy” like some races that feature telegenic Dem candidates, are near big media centers, or which feature especially odious Republican incumbents, it certainly is not a “safe GOP” district and probably belongs in Lean GOP.

One other wild-card here is that two Ohioans are repeatedly mentioned in possible Obama VP choices: Gov. Strickland and Sen. Brown. The choice of either of these two proven winners would probably be good for an down-ticket bump for down-ticket Dems in Ohio of 3 or 4 points.

During the 1990-2005 period, when the auto industry boomed, the Ohio that once repeatedly sent a Sanders/Wellstone-style progressive like Howard Metzenbaum to the Senate drifted right under popular moderate Republican governors. Now socially conservative/economically progressive voters that make up a big part of Ohio’s population are swinging back left at breakneck speed, with multiple impressive victories in 2006.