Month: August 2008

It’s a done deal – Biden is running for another term:

Biden spokesman David Wade said Sunday that Biden will continue his Senate re-election campaign. Biden is expected to defeat Republican challenger Christine O’Donnell in November.

Assuming the Obama-Biden ticket is successful in November (let’s hope), Biden will resign his Senate seat after being sworn in for another term in early January. The task will then fall to outgoing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to appoint a successor for Biden. Possible contenders include Delaware AG Beau Biden and the loser of the state’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Markell. However, the younger Biden’s senatorial aspirations (assuming he has any) may be complicated by his deployment to Iraq in October.

Rasmussen (8/21, likely voters including leaners, 7/30 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 38 (39)

Big John Cornyn (R-inc.): 52 (50)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The monthly installment from Rasmussen on the Texas Senate race shows little change, with Cornyn edging up slightly. Without leaners pushed, Cornyn leads 48-37 (again, barely changed from 47-37 on July 30).

Noriega is suffering from a big financial disadvantage against Cornyn. The DSCC might be able to tighten things up with a big investment… but with Dem odds heating up in races in North Carolina, Georgia, even Oklahoma, this one may be slipping further down their target list.

And the Winning Ticket Is — Obama / Biden 08:

Barack Obama made an excellent choice with his selection of Delaware Senator Joe Biden to be his running mate.  On Saturday I spent the day working at the Democratic booth at the Centre County Grange Fair and throughout the day people were asking if the announcement had been made.  Everyone I spoke with expressed positive opinions about the choice.  If this is any indication of the type of qualified people Barack Obama will surround himself with as President, we can all rest assured that our country will be headed in a better direction come January of 2009.

The daily trivia question at the Democratic booth was “What Pennsylvania town was Joe Biden’s hometown?”  I’m usually pretty good at trivia but Kim Bierly had to tell me the answer was Scranton PA.

Another Busy Week In The Books:

We put quite a few miles on the campaign Jeep this week.  On Tuesday, we were in attendance to hear Governor Rendell speak at the CBICC luncheon in State College.  It was exciting to hear Governor Rendell speak about the alternative fuels projects going on in Clearfield County.  He also mentioned that the BioEnergy project is the single biggest economic development project in the history of Clearfield County at over $250 million.  

On Wednesday, we traveled west in the morning to visit Venango County for several meetings, then, we headed east to State College to attend the Penn Ag Democratic picnic.  Below is a picture from the Penn Ag picnic with L-R Doug Kilgore, Greg Stewart, Rep. Mike Hanna, Mark McCracken, Rep. Scott Conklin and Sec. of Agriculture Dennis Wolf.

On Friday, we attended the opening of the Clinton County Democratic Headquarters.  There was a very nice crowd on hand to hear from Sen. John Wozniak, Rep. Mike Hanna, Commissioner Joel Long, Commissioner Adam Coleman and Mayor Rick Vilello.

Sharing the stage with these leaders who represent Clinton County on the state, county and local level gave me the opportunity to speak about how I want to be a close working partner with other elected officials.  As a county commissioner this is something I feel has been lacking in the 5th district and is something I will change when I’m elected to Congress.  

Saturday at the Centre County Grange Fair was an outstanding day that started off early with the monthly Centre County Democrats breakfast.  We got the chance to speak with people from throughout the 5th district that were at the fair.  Also, WPSU filmed a walk around the fairgrounds segment with me.  We got a lot of great footage that will appear on a program WPSU is doing about campaigning at the fair.  The highlight of the walk around segment was meeting with a lady who told me she just turned 91 and has only missed Grange Fair twice in her life.

The week ended at Treasure Lake in DuBois for an Obama supporter’s picnic on Sunday afternoon.  The folks at the picnic were still excited about the selection of Senator Biden and all Democrats are excited about the convention in Denver.

The Week Ahead:

On Thursday, a representative from the campaign will be attending “Obama Watch Parties” for Obama’s big speech at the DNC Convention.  We will be making stops in Ridgway, DuBois, and Clearfield.  Come for the party and stay for the politics.  We will be handing out literature and campaign signs for supporters.

The big event for the week is the WPSU Town Hall Meeting that will be filmed Tuesday at 5:45 at the Grange Fair.  It will be aired on WPSU on September 4th and will probably be aired several times before Election Day.  If you are at the Grange Fair on Tuesday, plan to stop by and take part in the Town Hall Meeting.

Upcoming Fundraising Event:

Keith Bierly is planning the WE’RE BACKIN’ McCRACKEN GOLF CLASSIC to be held on September 22nd beginning at 8 AM at the Belles Springs Golf Course in Clinton County.  The tournament will feature LPGA TOUR player Jackie Gallagher-Smith.  The entry fee will be $92.00 per player, or, $300.00 for a foursome.  Sponsoring a hole will also be $92.00.  There will be an ongoing cookout throughout the final nine holes.

A brochure with all the details will follow in early September.  The tournament is 4 weeks from tomorrow – Monday – the 22nd.  Belles Springs is conveniently located less than one mile off of Interstate 80 at the Lock Haven Exit.  Make you plans now to attend.  Contact Keith Bierly at keithbierly@yahoo.com for more details and to make your reservation.

Yard Signs Are Now Available:  

For the time being, we want to concentrate on getting the signs displayed in yards only.  Closer to Election Day we will concentrate on getting signs out in public view.  If you would like a sign for your yard, please email the campaign at mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net, call 765-6821 or speak with members of the campaign staff.

We look forward to seeing out on the campaign trail.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

As you all know by now, New Mexico will be critical to a Barack Obama victory this fall. However, what you may not know is that New Mexico will also be a critical battleground for us to strengthen our majority in Congress. Fortunately, we have Tom Udall running for the open Senate seat here. And even better, we also have Martin Heinrich running to turn blue a House seat that’s been red for 40 years.

Martin Heinrich has spent his life helping and serving others. He’s helped improve the community in Albuquerque with his non-profit work. He’s fought for a healtheir environment as New Mexico State Natural Resources Trustee. He’s worked to bring “green-collar jobs” to Albuquerque while on the city council, as he’s also worked on the council to increase the minimum wage, reduce crime in the city’s neighborhoods, and protect the area’s precious natural resources. Basically, Martin Heinrich can be counted on to get the job done for the people.

Darren White,on the other hand, is nothing more than another far right Republican Bush loyalist. He served on the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign in New Mexico, and he’s happily using his Bush-Cheney connections to raise money for his Congressional campaign. So even though White stresses he’s an “independent leader”, don’t believe it. He’s yet another Bush Republican offering more of the same when New Mexicans are looking for real change.

Fortunately for us, the voters in New Mexico’s First District seem ready for change. The race is very close right now, and Democrats have a real chance of picking up this seat. That’s why our friends like The League of Conservation Voters and The DCCC’s Red to Blue program are lining up to support this people’s environmental champion. We can win here… If we stand up and support our Democrat running!

So will you stand up and support good, strong, progressive Democrats like Martin Heinrich? This is one of the hottest races in the country, and this is one of best chances of turning a red seat blue and expanding our majority. So please, stand with us and support Martin Heinrich today! 🙂

Capital Survey Research Center (8/19-21, likely voters, 4/1 in parens):

Parker Griffith (D): 45 (48)

Wayne Parker (R): 40 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Republican Wayne Parker has closed the gap since April, but this is hardly surprising. Parker began his campaign as a largely unknown candidate, with memories of his two losses to Democrat Bud Cramer in 1994 and 1996 being extremely distant. However, after a contested primary, he’s boosted his name recognition and is now hitting the 40% mark.

Still, Democrat Parker Griffith, a state senator from Huntsville, retains the edge based on his superior credentials, the district’s ancestral Democratic tendencies, and heavier war chest.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/19-21, likely voters):

Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 50

Lynn Jenkins (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

Boyda is at the critical 50% mark, and has decent favorability numbers for a frosh Dem in a deep red district (46-32). She still faces a real battle against the top-of-the ticket coattails, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district — but even that spread is not as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here in 2004.

More interesting are the questions related to the energy crisis, including this one:

If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America’s energy problems … and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy … which candidate would you vote for?

So, considering all the hype surrounding the GOP’s newly-discovered “drill here, drill now” mantra, you would expect offshore drilling to be wildly popular in a conservative R+7.3 district, right? Actually, not so much: Voters here say they would vote for the candidate promoting alternative sources of energy over increased offshore drilling by a 56-34 margin.

Additionally, when asked who was most responsible for high gasoline prices, 38% blamed the oil companies while only 11% blamed environmentalists. President Bush received 10% of the blame, while Congress gobbled up 13%. You can see why the most valued attack line from the party committees this cycle is one that ties GOP candidates to “big oil”.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Suffolk University (8/21-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Udall (D): 39

Bob Schaffer (R): 31

Douglas Campbell (ACP): 4

Robert Kinsey (G): 2

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.6%)

Mason-Dixon also has released a poll (8/13-15, likely voters) showing Udall leading Schaffer by 10 points:

Mark Udall (D): 47

Bob Schaffer (R): 37

Robert Kinsey (G): 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Schaffer’s campaign manager, major league asshole Dick Wadhams, responds with his typical bluster:

“That flies in the face of just about every other number I’ve seen in this race, and I think Mason-Dixon had a bad night,” said Schaffer campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams. “This poll is so far off the mark, I can’t even respond to it.”

Interesting. See, I’m looking at Pollster.com’s chart for this race, and I see seven other polls showing Udall leading by eight points or more. In fact, the Pollster aggregate shows Udall leading by six points, so it’s hard to argue that Mason-Dixon is that far off the mark.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

After neglecting to update the Swing State Project’s comprehensive timeline of GOP disasters for a while, I’ve gone through the backlog and have updated the list with more than a month’s worth of shame and scandal in the Republican family.

Check it out and let us know if there’s anything we missed.

Public Policy Polling (8/20-22, likely voters, 7/17-20 in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 55 (57)

Jim Gilmore (R): 32 (32)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Nothing to see here, folks.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 47-45. PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at the numbers and lays out Obama’s path to victory in Virginia:

If blacks make up 20% of the electorate in the state as they make up 20% of the population, and Obama gets 90% of their votes he has 18%.

Assuming that another 5% of the electorate is other nonwhite voters, such as Asians and Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic. If he gets 60% of those votes it’s another 3%, pushing him up to 21%.

That leaves the white population at 75%, and Obama needing another 29% of the vote to get to 50%. If he gets 39% support from white voters he’s there.

Obama is currently at 36% among white voters — three points short of Jensen’s magic threshold, with 12% undecided. Will he be able to bring it home?

Jame’s L. noted that Luetkemeyer’s camp had a deranged explosion response to Judy Baker having a small lead in the first general election poll of the MO-09 race.

The Luetkemeyer response is here:

“Judy Baker’s poll is like a NASCAR driver bragging about being ahead after the first lap of this weekend’s Sharpie 500, which in case Judy didn’t know is a car race enjoyed by ‘those people’ often derided by liberal Democrats like herself,” said Luetkemeyer spokesman Paul Sloca in a statement.

Of course the Luetkemeyer camp had egg on their face after swing state project pointed out that Baker cosponsored a bill that would name a stretch of road after local NASCAR racer Carl Edwards:

State Sen. Chuck Graham and state Rep. Judy Baker announced the plans to designate Route WW from Highway 63 to Olivet Road as “Carl Edwards Drive.”

Now to put the final topping on this funny story…the very driver that Judy Baker honored, won the Sharpie 500 that the Luetkemeyer camp was referring too 🙂

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/…