Month: August 2008

Florida’s District 7 should be added to the Swing State Project. The surrounding districts of Feeney and Keller were targeted, but not John Mica’s. District 7 has a small Republican advantage, but that may not even be true now, since Democrats have been outregistering Republicans by about a 5-1 margin.

Faye Armitage is a formidable opponent for Mica. Please check out her website www.fayeforcongress.com

Longtime readers of the Swing State Project are well aware that I like to keep close tabs on party committee spending, especially for those in House races. As the DCCC has begun to crank its independent expenditure shop into high gear in recent weeks, I had been toying with the idea of assembling some kind of stand-alone “tracker” of all third-party independent expenditures for House races. Egged on by Populista, I’ve finally put one together.

You can check it out here. The idea is to track “blue money” and “red money” for each contested district, bundling DCCC and NRCC expenditures with cash spent by their respective allies. As far as the visual presentation goes, it may still be a bit of a work in progress, but all the information is there.

Now, there are a few caveats: 527 electioneering expenditures, like those from Freedom’s Crotch Watch, are not filed in the same clear-cut manner as standard IEs, so we won’t be including such numbers in our tracker. (Indeed, Freedom’s Watch has been known to not file any reports at all sometimes.) I’m also not including very minor expenditures (e.g. van rentals, field supplies, or lunch for volunteers) by third parties, as the focus here is mostly on paid media campaigns. You also won’t see any expenditures made to influence primary elections, which means that you won’t see any numbers from the likes of the Club For Growth yet; we’re strictly dealing with the general election here.

So, without further ado, here it is: SSP’s House Race Independent Expenditure Tracker. Bookmark it and check it often, because I’ll be updating it daily. It will also be available as a link in the right-hand sidebar.

Rasmussen (8/21, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/28 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 43 (43)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 52 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Without leaners, Wicker leads by five: 47-42. The crosstabs show Wicker making some important gains over earlier polls: he now scores 17% of African-American voters (10% without leaners) and holds Musgrove to only 22% of the white vote. Even with a sky-high African-American turnout in November, that’s a winning formula for the GOP.

I don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer here, but Musgrove has some serious challenges — most seriously, a recent guilty plea from a business executive who admitted that he attempted to bribe Musgrove with a $25,000 campaign contribution in connection to a failed beef plant project — an unsuccessful business venture that left Mississippi taxpayers carrying the tab in 2003.

Now, there’s no evidence of any wrongdoing on Musgrove’s part, but this is clearly the type of smoke and mirrors game that the GOP will love to exploit. I’m not saying that this race is undoable, but it’s going to take an extraordinary amount of sweat.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Now that we’ve all caught Biden fever, our next question is: What will happen to Joe Biden’s Senate seat?

Well, a number of things could happen. Biden is up for re-election this year, and if he wanted to, Delaware election law allows him to remain on the November ballot. In that case, if the Obama-Biden ticket wins in November, Biden can take the Senate oath and then resign, allowing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, in her last days in office (her term expires on January 20, 2009 — the same day as the presidential inauguration), to appoint a replacement who would serve until 2010. However, it’s not obvious to me that we want to endure the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee appearing to be “hedging his bets” once again.

If Biden pulls his name from the ballot, the party would (I assume) be able to name a replacement candidate. The conventional wisdom suggests that the go-to guy to fill this slot is none other than Beau Biden, Joe’s son and Attorney General of Delaware. The younger Biden would be a strong bet to hold this seat.

Could the GOP possibly make a race of this? It’s difficult to make a case in their favor here, even if the elder Biden is off the ballot. Despite not being an overwhelmingly blue state in the most recent presidential elections (Kerry won the state by 7 points in 2004, and Gore by 13), the GOP bench in Delaware is abysmally weak. It’s so bad, in fact, that the state GOP is not even seriously contesting the open seat gubernatorial election this year.

The only conceivable way that the GOP could make a real race of this would be if they nominated the state’s at-large Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former Governor who has bucked the state’s blue trend to hold on to his House seat with ease. However, Castle is 69 years old, and suffered some minor strokes in the fall of 2006. Is he really up for six years in the Senate at this point? Castle has expressed reluctance to take on a Senate bid, but has not conclusively ruled one out, to the best of my knowledge. Still, this option seems like a long shot at best for the GOP.

The Delaware GOP does have a candidate on the ballot for this race already – conservative talking head Christine O’Donnell. With Delaware’s filing deadline having passed in July, she would have to agree to pull out of the race in order for the GOP to tap a stronger candidate – but the GOP’s recruiting prospects here do not look promising right now, especially when you consider the failed track record of NRSC Chair John Ensign this cycle.

This seat is very likely a safe hold, but we’ll have to see which path Joe Biden chooses first before we can paint a clearer picture.

Update: Another option, as mentioned in the comments but one I glossed over last night, is for Democrats to fill Biden’s slot with the loser of Delaware’s gubernatorial primary this year between Lt. Gov. John Carney and State Treasurer Jack Markell — both seem to be sensible choices, especially as Beau Biden is currently serving soon to be deployed to Iraq.

This is tug-of-war, which, believe it or not, was actually an Olympic event between 1900 and 1920. I think it’s high time that the IOC reinstated this fine sport at the Olympic Games. Don’t you?

If this election is a battle of tug-of-war, John McCain, after showing some recent strength, let go of the rope and fell flat on his ass yesterday. And you have to love it.

That seems to be the general thinking as of this moment.

MSNBC is reporting that their sources say it’s not Bayh or Kaine.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26…

ABC News is reporting a charter jet from Chicago to New Castle, DE

http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit…

It looks more and more likely that Biden is the guy.  I actually do like the pick.  Biden seems to be a good compliment to Obama.  An added bonus is that we don’t lost a Senate or Governorship with Biden as we probably would if Kaine or Bayh were the pick.  What do the rest of you think of the possibility of a Obama/Biden ticket?

Tim Bee is desperate for money. That’s why he sucked it up and asked his political hero, George W. Bush, to fly out to his district and raise a reported $600,000 for his campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

But Tim Bee isn’t the only one hurting for funds. In a recent editorial by the Tucson Citizen, the paper is raking Bee over the coals for the costs of Bush’s swanky private fundraiser at a posh home in the Catalina foothills: $99,000 for the services of 161 police officers and 165 sheriff’s deputies over the course of two days in July. From the editorial:

Bee is a third-generation Tucsonan with a fine record of public service, but his campaign now is tapping our community’s public safety resources and not giving back. That’s wrong. And we expect better from Bee.

His staff needs to pull some money out of that $600,000 windfall and put it back where it belongs: in the budgets of our local law enforcement agencies.

In tight economic times like these, that’s the only appropriate response. Public safety officers cannot be used for purely private security.

The Arizona Daily Star agrees, and has also called for Bee’s campaign to reimburse taxpayers. The only problem? Bee will have none of such talk, as his campaign says that they have “no plans” on reimbursing the city of Tucson or Pima County for the security costs.

And it’s no small wonder why Bee is holding firm: According to his pre-primary report filed with the FEC last night, Bee only raised $278,000 from July 1st through August 13th, including just $184,000 from the “Tim Bee Arizona Trust”, the committee set up specially for Bush’s fundraiser — that’s less than a third of what the event raised, as the remainder went to other costs associated with the event and to the state party and the NRCC.

As we reported last night, Bee has less than $590,000 in the bank compared to Giffords’ $2.15 million. Was the hassle of sacrificing his “moderate” image, and the follow-up of the local media roasting him for squandering taxpayers’ dollars worth the $184,000 that his event brought in?

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

I’m so excited to kick off our new “C4O Spotlight” series today. As you all know by now, a Democratic victory isn’t complete without electing more & better Democrats to Congress. So in that spirit, I’d like to introduce you all to someone very special. Please meet our first C4O All-Star.

As I talked about last weekend, I still have fond memories of my trip to Las Vegas last January. My friends & I helped make a difference in getting Democrats out to caucus. I was able to see Hillary & Bill Clinton in person for the very first time. And yes, I was also able to witness Dina Titus in action.

Dina Titus has been dedicated to serving the people of Suburban Las Vegas in the twenty years she’s served in the Nevada State Senate, fifteen of those also working as the Senate Democratic Leader. She’s worked to preserve Southern Nevada natural treasures like Red Rock Canyon, expand health care access to working families in Nevada, and improve the schools that serve Nevada’s kids. Oh, and when she’s not in the Senate, she’s busy teaching American & Nevada government at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.

But while Dina Titus has been working hard for Nevada’s working people, Republican incumbent Jon Porter has been busy serving only himself. He’s been a rubber stamp for Bush & Cheney ever since he first took office. He’s used his taxpayer funded Congressional office to raise money for his campaign. He’s consistently voted against the interests of Southern Nevada’s working families if they get in the way of what his fat cat corporate donors want. Basically, Jon Porter is yet another dirty Republican who needs a different kind of job.

Fortunately for us & for Las Vegans, Dina Titus has a great shot at beating Porter. Titus beat Porter by 4 points in the first public poll released. DC political watchers now officially consider this race a toss-up. Democrats have come from behind to take the lead in voter registration. Oh yes, and Barack Obama’s agressive Nevada campaign is sure to fire up turnout that can not only turn Nevada blue for Obama, but help Congressional candidates like Dina Titus win as well.

Oh, and let’s not forget all the high-profile help Dina Titus is receiving from some great progressive allies! The Sierra Club has endorsed her because she’s someone we can trust to fight for what’s best for our people and our planet. EMILY’s List has endorsed her becuase she’ll work her hardest for all the hard working women in Southern Nevada. Dina Titus has even been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, which means that national Democrats are confident enough to invest in a victory here!

But you know what? Nonw of that matters if we don’t take action! I wouldn’t be here today if i didn’t think that Dina Titus deserves our

support. So please, please join us to take action and help Dina Titus & all our other great All-Star Democrats win. With real progressive fighters like Dina Titus in Congress, we can make a difference foe the better. So if you’re as committed to a better & stronger America as I am, please join me in helping great candidates like Dina Titus win. 🙂

Capital Survey Research Center (likely voters, date unknown 8/18):

Joshua Segall (D): 33

Mike Rogers (R-inc): 54

(n=468)

No word yet on when this poll was taken, but I’m assuming it was around or during the same time frame of the CSRC’s AL-02 poll (8/6-7,11), which showed Democrat Bobby Bright leading Jay Love by 10 points.

This district was drawn by the Alabama legislature to elect a Democrat, but after a close loss in 2002, no Dems have been able to wage a viable campaign against Rogers, and this R+4.3 district has quickly fallen way down on the target list. However, attorney Joshua Segall is making a go of it this year, and he’s raised a respectable amount so far.

It will be a very tough climb for him to pull even with Rogers this year, but Segall has put together enough resources to merit watching. Over at Doc’s Political Parlor, Danny contends that Segall will have an especially tough time, because the district is split between three media markets and is therefore considerably expensive for a candidate to raise his name ID. While there is some truth to that, SSP’s Bang-for-the-Buck Index shows that AL-03 is roughly in the middle of the pack of targeted races when it comes to the expense of TV buys. And while it’s certainly not as dirt cheap as AL-02 is, the 3rd CD is a far cry from more expensive targets in Flordia, Texas, and Illinois.

On another note, many GOP partisans questioned the veracity of the CSRC’s AL-02 poll (given that they poll for the Alabama Education Association, a staunch Dem ally), but I’m sure that these same hacks have no complaints with their work in the 3rd CD. It’s all or nothing, fellas.