Month: September 2008

Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.

Here is the link to Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….

Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.

U.S. HOUSE (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)

Safe:

CA-01 (North Coast): Thompson (D)

CA-02 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Herger (R)

CA-03 (Sacramento suburbs): Lungren (R)

CA-05 (Sacramento): Matsui (D)

CA-06 (Northern SF Bay): Woolsey (D)

CA-07 (Northeast SF Bay): George Miller (D)

CA-08 (San Francisco): Pelosi (D)

CA-09 (Berkeley, Oakland): Lee (D)

CA-10 (Inner East SF Bay): Tauscher (D)

CA-12 (Lower SF Peninsula): Speier (D)

CA-13 (Southern East Bay): Stark (D)

CA-14 (Silicon Valley): Eshoo (D)

CA-15 (Santa Clara, Cupertino): Honda (D)

CA-16 (San Jose): Lofgren (D)

CA-17 (Northern Central Coast): Farr (D)

CA-18 (Upper Central Valley): Cardoza (D) – unopposed

CA-19 (Yosemite, part of Fresno): Radanovich (R) – unopposed

CA-20 (Fresno, part of Bakersfield): Costa (D)

CA-21 (Tulare): Nunes (R)

Now for the races to watch:

CA-04 (Northeast, including Tahoe): Tom McClintock (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D), Paul Netto (L) – vacated by John Doolittle (R)

Registration: R+16.00%

Profile: As a lot of people already know by now, there is a high-profile battle going on here to replace the disgraced John Do-Little (R). Fighting Democrat Charlie Brown came within a few percentage points of knocking off Do-Little in 2006 and is back again, this time facing carpetbagger Tom McClintock, whose State Senate district is 400 miles away from the 4th. In such a strongly Republican district, especially in a Presidential year, one would normally give the Republican a leg up, but Charlie has been doing fantastically, maintaining a huge cash advantage over McClintock, and polls have shown him competitive.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

CA-11 (San Joaquin County and parts of East Bay): Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Dean Andal (R)

Registration: R+2.41%

Profile: This was a pickup for us in the House in 2006, and the GOP hoped to make it one of their highest priorities, pinning their hopes on Andal. Well, now it looks like those hopes have fizzled. Andal is now in hot water over negotiations for a new San Joaquin Delta College campus ( http://www.capitolweekly.net/a… ), and the claims are coming from evil liberals registered Republican and former Andal supporter Ted Simas, a SJDC board member. The NRCC has also pulled funding from the district, meaning that we can breathe a little easier here and devote funds to CA-04 and elsewhere.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean McNerney

STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)

Safe:

SD-01 (Northeast, including Tahoe and Mother Lode): Dave Cox (R)

SD-03 (North Bay, part of San Francisco): Mark Leno (D) – vacated by Carole Migden (D)

SD-05 (Sacramento River Delta): Lois Wolk (D) – vacated by Michael Machado (D)

SD-07 (Most of Contra Costa County): Mark DeSaulnier (D) – vacated by Tom Torlakson (D)

SD-09 (Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond): Loni Hancock (D) – vacated by Don Perata (D)

SD-11 (Silicon Valley, most of Santa Cruz County): Joe Simitian (D)

SD-13 (Most of Santa Clara County including San Jose): Elaine Alquist (D)

SD-15 (Central Coast, part of Santa Clara County): Abel Maldonado (R)

STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)

AD-01 (North Coast): Wesley Chesbro (D) – vacated by Patty Berg (D)

AD-02 (Sacramento Valley): Jim Nielsen (R) – vacated by Doug LaMalfa (R)

AD-03 (Northeast): Dan Logue (R) – vacated by Rick Keene (R)

AD-04 (Tahoe): Ted Gaines (R) – unopposed

AD-05 (Northern Sacramento suburbs): Roger Niello (R)

AD-06 (North Bay): Jared Huffman (D)

AD-07 (Napa Valley): Noreen Evans (D)

AD-08 (Sacramento River Delta): Mariko Yamada (D) – vacated by Lois Wolk (D)

AD-09 (Sacramento): Dave Jones (D)

AD-11 (Northern Contra Costa County): Tom Torlakson (D) – vacated by Mark DeSaulnier (D)

AD-12 (Western San Francisco): Fiona Ma (D)

AD-13 (Eastern San Francisco): Tom Ammiano (D) – vacated by Mark Leno (D)

AD-14 (Berkeley, Richmond): Nancy Skinner (D) – unopposed – vacated by Loni Hancock (D)

AD-16 (Oakland): Sandré Swanson (D)

AD-17 (Stockton, Merced): Cathleen Galgiani (D)

AD-18 (Eastern Oakland suburbs): Mary Hayashi (D)

AD-19 (Most of San Mateo County): Gerald Hill (D) – vacated by Gene Mullin (D)

AD-20 (Southern East Bay): Alberto Torrico (D)

AD-21 (Silicon Valley): Ira Ruskin (D)

AD-22 (Western San Jose): Paul Fong (D) – vacated by Sally Lieber (D)

AD-23 (Downtown San Jose): Joe Coto (D)

AD-24 (Southern San Jose): Jim Beall (D)

AD-25 (Mother Lode, Yosemite): Tom Berryhill (R)

AD-27 (Northern Central Coast): Bill Monning (D) – vacated by John Laird (D)

AD-28 (Inner Central Coast region): Anna Caballero – unopposed

AD-29 (Eastern Fresno): Michael Villines (R)

AD-31 (Western Fresno): Juan Arambula (D)

AD-32 (Bakersfield): Jean Fuller (R)

AD-33 (Part of southern Central Coast): Sam Blakeslee (R)

AD-34 (Big Empty): Connie Conway (R) – vacated by Bill Maze (R)

Now, for the races to watch:

AD-10 (Eastern Sacramento suburbs): Jack Sieglock (R) vs. Alyson Huber (D), Janice Bonser (L) – vacated by Alan Nakanishi (R)

Registration: R+1.97%

Profile: You know you’re in trouble when the interior voice of your own party is voicing great concern over a seat, in this case, the California Yacht Republican Party’s voice Jon Fleischman being concerned over the 10th Assembly district ( http://calitics.com/showDiary…. ). What was once a 6% Republican advantage in registration has shrunk to a 2% advantage, and Sieglock had a much tougher time in the primary than Huber. If we have a really good GOTV, we can count on wins here and elsewhere to put us at 2/3!

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-15 (Inner East Bay): Abram Wilson (R) vs. Joan Buchanan (D) – vacated by Guy Houston (R)

Registration: D+1.31%

Profile: Like the 10th, the Republican candidate in this one survived a really tough primary while the Democrat cruised through and is sitting pretty on a comfortable cash advantage. With a well-oiled turnout machine, we can win here, and if we do, we will shut out Republicans in every legislative seat in the Bay Area! A recent poll has Buchanan in the lead.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean Buchanan

AD-26 (Stockton, Modesto): Bill Berryhill (R) vs. John Eisenhut (D) – vacated by Greg Aghazarian (R)

Registration: D+1.99%

Profile: While this district has trended blue also, it will be a bit more competitive for us than the 10th and 15th. Eisenhut is a local almond farmer and fits the district well, while Berryhill is counting on name ID from his brother Tom in the neighboring 25th district and his father, who represented this area in the state legislature in the 1960s, to win.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-30 (Southern San Joaquin Valley): Fran Florez (D) vs. Danny Gilmore (R) – vacated by Nicole Parra (D)

Registration: D+9.15%

Profile: Normally this district is not competitive, but the polarizing Yacht Dog Parra made the past 3 elections in this district closer than they should have been. Fortunately, she’s on her way out, and Shafter Mayor Fran Florez, Sen. Dean Florez’s mother, looks to be in a comfortable position to keep this seat in our column. The fact that voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP ( http://www.istockanalyst.com/a… ) further adds to Florez’s advantage.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Likely Florez

Well, that’s it for the NorCal and CenCal races. Tomorrow, look for an analysis of the SoCal races, as well as a summary of the races we need to zero in on to win this fall.

This is gonna be short because I have to get to class (and I’m in Beijing, PRC, so class starts at 5pm PDT).

Cook made the follow changes; 6 are pro-Dem and 9 are pro-Rep.  Mostly, the changes seem to be clean-up work on races for which time is running out.

AL-03 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

CA-46 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

CA-50 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

FL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

ID-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

IL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

MD-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NE-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NV-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NY-20 Lean Dem->Likely Dem

OR-05 Lean Dem->Likely Dem

PA-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

TN-04 Solid Dem->Likely Dem

VA-10 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

WV-02 Lean Rep->Likely Rep

My pick for the biggest surprise move is probably Tennessee’s 4th.  I mean, seriously?  I don’t know much about this race, but it seems kinda late for that race to just now be getting competitive if he thinks the challenger can pull and upset, especially in such a pro-Dem year.

Your thoughts?  Also, can someone please tell me what the hell Cook thinks is going on TN?

Update 9:50 PM PDT,

I did some research, and TN-04’s challenger Monty Lankford seems like quite the joke.  He’s lagging significantly in COH ($99872 to Davis’ $413849) and apparently lives in the 7th district.  Either Davis’ vote to reelect internals are absolutely awful and Cook has gotten a hold of them, or Cook thinks that Davis’ declarations that he’s likely to run for governor in 2010 could hurt him.  Either of those seem possible, but I’m still not sure how Lankford manages to hit 50%.

What are the odds that Rothenberg writes another  column slamming Cook for this quixotic choice?  

The Wall Street Journal has an article on Democratic candidates whose faith is potentially an asset in winning over voters in conservative-leaning districts. The article features Judy Baker (MO-09) and Larry Kissell (NC-08).

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

During the primaries Judy Baker was dubbed as “too liberal” to win in the MO-09 and yet I have always felt that her biography and her Baptist faith allow her to connect with voters in the district and taht as many voters vote their identity rather than issues, she is an ideal liberal Democratic candidate for a deep red Bush +18 district like ours.

If you donate to Judy Baker at my webpage below, I’ll match you up to $300.

http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…

General Wesley Clark also has an ActBlue webpage for her:

http://www.actblue.com/page/3f…

Larry Kissell’s donation page is here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/la…

We’ll believe it when we see it, but Haley Barbour’s mouthpiece is claiming that he’ll respect the law (for a change) and move Mississippi’s Senate election from the bottom of the ballot:

A spokesman for Gov. Haley Barbour says he will move the special election for Trent Lott’s old Senate seat off the bottom of the ballot. […]

His spokesman, Pete Smith, elaborated by saying “the governor is going to comply with the ruling and the Senate race will go near the top.”

We’ll see.

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I’ve received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out her. And to all of you fretting, I say… Don’t worry!  

Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn’t pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of “On Winning the West”!  

OK, there’s no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing states this year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it’s also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they’re doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state’s Congressional Delegation bluer as well.

Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he’s the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He’s been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he’s really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously… And we should, too. As long as we have Udall’s back, we can win here.

Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state’s 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that’s quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn’t even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who’s ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY’S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.

Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It’s a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama… But also send another Democrat to the Senate!

Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon’s State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people’s lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That’s why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon’s labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be “bipartisan”, but we know he’s just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC’s help Merkley can win.

So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West… As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let’s bring some positive change to the West! 🙂

This is just unreal:

The Mississippi Supreme Court has given a split ruling in a dispute about the ballot placement for Trent Lott’s old Senate seat.

A majority of justices ruled Thursday that state law requires the special election between Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove to be near the top of the November 4th ballot.

But they stopped short of ordering Republican Gov. Haley Barbour to elevate the race off the bottom.

So let’s get this straight: The Mississippi Supreme Court (stacked with Barbour allies) says that the ballot is illegal, but stops short of ordering Haley Barbour to comply with the law?

I’m shaking my head in disbelief.

Update: The full decision, including the scathing dissent of Justice Diaz, is below the fold.

Here are a few quotes from the dissent:

Given the governor’s recent success at convincing seven members of this Court that a year is sometimes not a year, see Barbour v. State ex. reL Hood, 974 So. 2d 232 (Miss. 2008), one cannot fault him for daring to return to our chamber and insisting that the top is sometimes not the top.

But on the other, by holding that Judge Green exceeded her authority by ordering Governor Barbour and Secretary of State Hosemann to comply with state law, we send out from our chamber little more than a dressed-up request that this now settled law be complied with.

Later Update: Does anyone care to to tell me what the hell this means?

Barbour released a brief statement Thursday after the decision.

“The Supreme Court has spoken; so be it,” Barbour said.

It’s no secret that frosh GOP Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali has been having a hard time raising money since his narrow win in 2006. Indeed, at the end of June, Sali only had $250K in the bank, and $136K in debts — including several bills left outstanding to disgruntled Idaho-based consultants.

With the economy in the shitter (thanks, Republicans!), Brain Fade is coming up with some unique strategies to replenish his coffers:

But out in Idaho, Rep. Bill Sali has decided to raise money by using a simple, grass-roots technique that church groups and youth sports teams have employed for decades – he’s hosting a yard sale!

Actually, the freshman Republican is urging all of his supporters to host yard sales, with the profits from all those old clothes, dishes and furniture going to his Congressional campaign. Yard sale hosts also receive campaign literature to hand out to their bargain-seeking clients, a way to generate interest in the campaign while raising money.

“Some people who are calling our campaign have never been involved in a campaign before,” spokesman Noah Wall tells HOH. “They’re looking for ways to help Bill, and a yard sale is a neat way for them to get involved.”

Good luck with that, Bill. Maybe I can buy a Jell-o mold in the shape of Idaho for a quarter at one of these.

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell won’t be seeking a recount in his primary challenge against Don Young:

“If I thought there was anything wrong, inappropriate or unprofessional about the way this election tally was conducted, I would not only call for a recount, I would demand one. But that is not the case here,” Parnell stated. “While a recount could change the outcome of this exceedingly close election – normal human error being what it is – such a result is unlikely. As such, I do not believe it justifies an expenditure of taxpayer funds.”

Now, other parties can petition the state to push for a recount, so that may still happen. But it won’t be done with Parnell’s blessing.

Parnell and the Club For Growth really let this one slip through their fingers. As Stuart Rothenberg might say (but won’t), they should be ashamed of themselves. Young now is facing the fight of his life against former Democratic state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz.

I’ve heard that we might see a new poll of this race relatively soon, so stay tuned.

SurveyUSA (9/14-16, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 36

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53

Allen Buckley (L): 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

And here’s Rasmussen (9/16, likely voters, 8/14 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 43 (44)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)

Allen Buckley (L): 8

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Pick your poison. Here’s one glaring discrepancy between the polls: SurveyUSA finds that the kids love them some Chambliss, with Saxby leading Martin by 51-36 among 18-34 year-olds, while Rasmussen says that 18-29 year-olds are giving Martin a monster 67-30 lead.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Update: Saxby’s own poll gives him a 52-33 lead.

Remember how Republican Martha Rainville actually made this a fairly close race in 2006? Those days are now just a foggy memory for the Vermont GOP:

Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., calls himself a proud Democrat, but says he’ll accept the Republican congressional nomination.

Welch says he was surprised to receive enough write-in votes on Republican ballots to secure the nomination of a party that didn’t put up a candidate of its own.

Kossack Kagro X via email: “He should demand the opportunity to debate himself.”