Month: October 2008

Survey USA (10/20-21, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 50 (44)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 46 (54)

(MoE: ±4%)

This race has spent most of this cycle at the top of the races-to-watch list for the blogosphere, after Darcy Burner captivated the netroots in 2006 en route to losing to one-term incumbent Dave Reichert in this D+2 district by a few points, and then continued running for 2008 without missing a beat. However, a lot of blogospherians (including us at SSP) started worrying a bit in the immediate wake of the financial crisis, when other netroots-backe rematch candidates in swing districts (Larry Kissell, Eric Massa, Dan Seals) suddenly started to climb into the lead but Darcy Burner continued to languish (trailing not just in a Research 2000 poll but a Democratic internal as well).

However, two subsequent internal polls showed Burner with a lead, and then Burner posted titanic fundraising numbers for the third quarter; the one thing she didn’t have in her arsenal was a public poll having shown her ahead. Well, finally, we’ve got one; she’s up 4 in the latest KING5-sponsored SurveyUSA poll, a sharp reversal of fortune from her 10-point deficit last time, taken during the afterglow of the GOP convention. With that in mind, Swing State Project is returning this race to “Tossup” status.

It’s unclear whether this race was moving at the same speed as the other similarly-situated races and R2K just happened to miss that, or if this race truly did take longer to surge because, as I’ve speculated before, the tech-heavy WA-08 is better insulated from the financial crisis (up to the point where people open their 401(k) statements). Either way, though, we’re starting to look pretty good in this race. (And if the NRCC’s decision to dump $454,000 into this race, the largest component of their multi-million dollar ad buy today, is any indication, the GOP knows it too.)

One other developing happening in this race: there’s a kerfuffle, helped along by the Seattle Times (the more conservative of Seattle’s two papers), over Burner’s degree from Harvard. Nobody’s disputing that she graduated, just parsing whether or not she double-majored in computer science and economics. (Short answer, apparently they don’t even have ‘majors’ at Harvard.) I suspect this will have the same effect as the Reichert-cheating-at-media-buying scandal that came a few days before: it’ll rile up the partisans but whoosh right past the few remaining undecideds.

A round-up of all the significant independent expenditures filed with the FEC today:

It was a $12.6 million day for the DCCC today, and they dumped cash in 51 races, including some first-timers like MN-06 (Bachmann), WV-02 (Capito), WY-AL (Open), and SC-01 (Brown). They’ve also hit the airwaves in KS-02, against the wishes of Nancy Boyda. (Good.) The NRCC, meanwhile, could only pop off a $1 million response (although they did spend $4 million yesterday).

I’m not particularly thrilled with the amount spent on Baron Hill or against Keith Fimian (an utter nobody, albeit a rich nobody), but I’m pleased to see a few more districts added to the big board.

I’m too excited to type anything. Here it is!

I just saw that King 5 TV reported a new Survey USA poll, Darcy is up 50-46 over Reichert.  The ad which pointed out that he’s ineffective really knocked him down, the first time his reputation has been damaged in any serious way.  Reichert’s even set up a site, http://www.davereichertdeliver… to rebut the claims.

He has $725k of TV on the air right now just this week, in all likelihood thanks to an illegal corporate contribution from Republican media buying firm Media Plus.

 

David Horowitz is a Republican activist who travels from college campus to college campus, giving inflammatory lectures about how liberals hate America and Muslims want to kill you. He recently published a new book called Party of Defeat: How Democrats and Radicals Undermined America’s War on Terror Before and After 9/11. The authors of this book proudly advertise it right here. As you can see, it has a white flag on the cover, it is about as offensive and inflammatory as you can get.

You may be wondering, who would support such divisive offensive partisan posturing over national security issues. Not 4-5 years ago, when it was more popular, but in 2008. Fortunately for us, 17 Republicans in Congress have endorsed this book.

The 17 are:

Jeff Sessions, Jim Bunning, Tom Coburn, James Inhofe, Peter Hoekstra, Peter King, Buck McKeon, Mark Souder, Tom Tancredo, Jim Saxon, Steve Buyer, Ed Royce, John Shadegg, Mike Pence, Lamar Smith, David Dreier, and Ginny Brown-Waite.

We happen to have some excellent candidates running against some of these individuals, and here is one more line of attack to use against them. I strongly implore all Democratic challengers of the above-mentioned Republicans to obtain a copy of this book, highlight the name of your opponent, and bring it with you everywhere you campaign. Even in right-leaning districts, the majority won’t stand for this kind of politics.

10 of the 17 are running for reelection on November 4 and have Democratic challengers. Here is the ActBlue page I created listing the Democratic challengers to these Republicans.

(cross-posted at DailyKos)

Research 2000 has been working double-time in Kentucky lately; they ran a poll for Daily Kos last week showing McConnell up by four, and they turned right around and fielded another poll for the Lexington Herald-Leader (10/19-21, likely voters, 10/15-16 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 43 (42)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Virtually unchanged. Once again, Lunsford still faces the same problem: while McConnell’s unfavorables are high, so are his. Which man will they dislike more on election day?

Cillizza buries this nugget in his latest post on GOP spending decisions:

(It’s worth noting that a national party committee pulling advertising out of a state isn’t always a bad sign. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has pulled its advertising in the Colorado Senate race, but that is a sign of their confidence of winning, not their acceptance of defeat.)

More money to spend elsewhere.

UPDATE: The Denver Post has more:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will cease television advertising in Colorado by Tuesday, state Democratic sources say, a signal that the national candidate committee believes Rep. Mark Udall is comfortably ahead of former congressman Bob Schaffer in the race for Colorado’s open U.S. Senate seat.

The DSCC instead will put its resources into competitive races elsewhere as the party tries to secure the filibuster-proof 60-seat majority.

Udall’s campaign isn’t particularly happy with the move, however.

“It doesn’t help,” Udall spokesman Tara Trujillo said of the national Senate committee’s decision. “We think that outside GOP groups will see this as an opportunity to launch more mean-spirited attack ads against Mark.”

I got an e-mail from Dick Durbin today, telling me about Aaron Schock’s new scandal: Backdate-gate!

Apparently, he didn’t quite mind notarizing documents fradulently!  Not only does he say crazy things about exporting nukes, he also gets himself involved in fraud.  How surprising.

I’ve reproduced Senator Durbin’s e-mail below the fold.  Let’s help Colleen Callahan beat Aaron Schock!

Dear Friend,

I am writing you this urgent appeal because I have nowhere else to turn.

There has been a game-changing development in an important Congressional race in downstate Illinois.

It’s an open seat in Peoria, which is traditionally Republican.

The GOP nominee is a 27-year-old named Aaron Schock who has all the money he can spend. He shoots from the hip about sending nuclear weapons to Taiwan and his undying loyalty to George Bush’s failed agenda.

Our Democratic nominee, Colleen Callahan, is a bright, engaging community leader who has spent 30 years in broadcast journalism covering a variety of issues and specializing in agriculture policy.

As a newcomer she has raised over $450,000, but Schock has swamped her with the help of national Republican sources.

Please make a contribution to Colleen Callahan’s campaign today, and help her compete against her well-financed Republican opponent!

Last week there was a blockbuster story across Illinois that Schock had notarized fraudulent documents with false dates so that his father could be eligible for offshore tax shelters. The source of the story was Schock’s own father in sworn testimony before a federal court. The damning testimony was buried in a court transcript but an Associated Press reporter dug it out, making statewide news.

Schock denied wrongdoing and said he saw nothing wrong with notarizing documents he knew were clearly fraudulent. A national notary expert quoted in the story said Schock clearly broke the law because “to backdate a document … is illegal. You have to notarize for the current date.”

Colleen Callahan’s campaign has just produced a powerful new television ad to expose “Backdate-gate.” But right now, Colleen has enough money to run this ad for only four days. She needs at least $10,000 from our community to deliver this important message to the voters through Election Day.

Please click here to watch Colleen Callahan’s new ad, and make a contribution so she can keep it on the air through Election Day!

Schock’s clear misconduct raises serious questions about his judgment. When the voters know the facts, Colleen Callahan can win.

Colleen is not only a good person, she brings the kind of mature judgment to this race that we need in Congress.

We need your help today.

If you can send Colleen’s campaign $10, $100, or whatever you can afford, it can make the difference.

The election is only a few days away and your help can decide this critical contest.

Sincerely,

Dick Durbin

U.S. Senator

P.S. After you make a contribution to Colleen Callahan’s campaign, please visit IllinoisVictory2008.com and sign up to volunteer with the coordinated effort to elect Democrats across Illinois!

The U.S. News & World Report:

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1” finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.” Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under “Rating 2,” nine Republican seats are listed as “leaning Democratic.” Under “Rating 3,” some 22 GOP seats are listed as “true toss-up.” The fourth rating, “lean Republican,” finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: “If there’s a wave, some could be in trouble.” The last “likely Republican” rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as “hopeful” GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as “possible” pickups.

Republicans facing the music? Or just a sly way of gaming expectations? In any event, I’d buy the full list for a dollar!

Here’s one House member that Republicans should add to their deathwatch, even though he will be re-elected: NRCC Chair Tom Cole.

(Hat-tip: Andy Dufresne)

UPDATE: “The Fix” says that the NRCC is pulling out of CO-04, FL-24, and MN-06. Maybe that’s true, but the NRCC did dump $375K against Democrat Betsy Markey in Colorado yesterday.

LATER UPDATE: The Politico says that the NRCC plans to pull out after their current $375K buy expires in Colorado’s 4th CD.