Month: October 2008

Ivan Moore for Anchorage Press (10/17-19, likely voters, 10/3-6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 46 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

After the initial shock of Ted Stevens’ indictment wore off (giving Mark Begich a huge boost), it seems like voters have been more and more willing to give Stevens some of the benefit of the doubt until a verdict is handed down, as the numbers in this race have drawn back to a tossup. With the case now in the hands of the jurors, it looks like we’re likely to have a verdict (or a mistrial) before Election Day, so whatever happens in the jury box may well decide the election.

Things look a little more settled in the House race, where Ethan Berkowitz continues to lead Don Young by high double single-digits. One note for caution, though, while Berkowitz’s favorables are as high as they’ve ever been in an Ivan Moore poll, the same is true of Young: Young’s positive/negative rating is 44-47, also his best showing in an Ivan Moore poll… but Young’s position in the head-to-head poll hasn’t improved much. Maybe the good folks of Alaska are starting to fondly recall why they love their own little grizzled 1890s prospector, consarn it… but still plan to turn the page on him.

Perhaps most noteworthy in this poll is the presidential numbers, showing Obama climbing much closer to McCain at 53-42 (reverting closer to the pre-Palin numbers, down from as much as a 54-35 McCain lead during the GOP convention). Perhaps the novelty effect of an Alaskan on the ticket is starting to wear off.

Jim Risch is an asshole:

Even without Romney’s star power, Risch has his own, very different campaign style.

At a senior American government class at Capital High School on Oct. 15, he paced across the front of the classroom. He spoke rapidly and energetically, peppered the 17- and 18-year-olds with questions and didn’t always wait for their answers. He sometimes complimented them, once saying, “We weren’t nearly as sophisticated as you kids are,” but most of the time he tried to connect with the kids by giving them a hard time.

“Could you explain to me the tax shift?” asked the first boy in the class to raise his hand during the question and answer session.

“Yoooou’re a Democrat,” Risch retorted.

“No he’s not,” a girl in the back piped up.

“Only Democrats use that phrase, ‘tax shift,'” Risch replied. “By the way, don’t be afraid to ask questions of me,” he said to the other students in the class. “They’re not stupid questions like this one over here.” (Emphasis added)

OH-3 House – OH-3 is home to Congressman Mike Turner, who doesn’t understand the meaning of the term “representative.” He is one of CREW’s 24 Most Corrupt in Congress. Turner’s earmarking was also noted in Mother Jones this August. Martin Gottlieb of the Dayton Daily News (DDN) points out that Congressman Turner “has had certain political embarrassments.”

Congressman Turner’s corruption and the Democratic lean OH-3 has, thanks to the city of Dayton and Montgomery County, enhances Democrat Jane Mitakides’ ability to turn OH-3 red-to-blue. This race is already on Swing State Project’s Races to Watch list, and the DDN today said OH-3 in comparison to OH-2 or OH-7 “is much more likely than the others to go Democratic. (The core of it, Mongtomery [sic] County, leans Democratic even in an average year.)”

“National trends matter a lot,” writes Gottlieb, and given the increase of Democratic support seen in 2008 makes this THE year to win back OH-3, “the year offers the Democrats their best shot,” Gottlieb adds.

Here it is folks! OH-3 is the easiest district to turn red-to-blue; let’s help make real change here and support Jane! http://jane08.com/

DDN Article: http://www.daytondailynews.com…

CREW Article: http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.or…

I guess Michelle Bachmann’s mouth was more destructive that I thought. The Huffington Posthttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/22/gop-pulling-its-ads-from_n_136941.html] is reporting that the NRCC is pulling its ads on her behalf.

Five days after Rep. Michele Bachmann went on a McCarthy-esque rant suggesting Barack Obama was unpatriotic and urging the major newspapers of the country to investigate anti-American sentiment in Congress, the national Republican political parties are running for cover.

Two sources aware of ad buys in Minnesota say that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling its media purchases from Bachmann’s race. If true, it is a remarkable fall for a congresswoman who, until recently, seemed relatively safe in her predominantly conservative district. The race had become closer in recent days — the NRCC had transferred funds from Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03) to Bachmann a little over a week ago.

Have a great early retirement, Michelle!

Rasmussen (10/21, likely voters, 9/30 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 43 (42)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (51)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen continues to splash a little cold water on the idea that this race is a tossup, but the trend has been good for Lunsford since July. McConnell continues to lose support from Democrats (down to 23% from 28% in the September poll), but made up some ground among unaffiliated voters. If I were McConnell, I’d still be scared of these trend lines, though.

UPDATE: The DSCC is out with a new ad hitting McConnell on trade:

The Zeitz for Congress campaign today requested that the Mercer County Superintendent of Elections investigate Chris Smith’s voter registration, and revoke it if she discovers fraud.

The Facts:

1) Smith filed for, and received, in-state tuition rates for his children attending Virginia public colleges.

2) In Virginia, dependent students are assigned the residency of their parents for determining tuition rates.

3) Virginia code requires the parents to have “abandoned any previous domicile,” in New Jersey in order to receive the $80,000 tuition breaks.

4) Chris Smith claims he was legally entitled to these benefits reserved for Virginians, but won’t produce the documentation to confirm his claim.

More after the jump.

                                                           

“In the best case scenario, Smith is cheating taxpayers by receiving $80,000 worth of in-state tuition breaks to an out-of-state university,” said Zeitz Campaign Manager Steve D’Amico. “The alternative scenario, of course, is that he has domiciled in Virginia and is eligible for in-state tuition at UVA, but that would mean he has “abandoned” New Jersey and has no legal right to vote in New Jersey or represent its citizens in Congress. Our request to the Superintendent is aimed at discovering the truth.”

A full copy of the Zeitz Campaign request follows:

October 22, 2008

Bettye Monroe

Mercer County Superintendent of Elections, Commissioner of Registration

Dear Superintendent Monroe:

We are writing regarding Chris Smith, candidate for Congress in New Jersey’s Fourth Congressional District and registered voter in Hamilton. We are concerned that Congressman Smith filed a fraudulent voter registration application. In that registration, we believe Smith falsely claimed that he is a New Jersey resident.  

During each of the last few years, Smith filed an application for in-state educational privileges for his children at the University of Virginia (UVA).   UVA, a school supported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, provides in-state tuition benefits only to those who claim Virginia as their domicile. (See attached excerpt from Office of Undergraduate Admissions)   Under Virginia law, “domicile is a technical, legal concept that refers to the present, fixed, home of an individual to which he or she returns following temporary absences and at which he or she intends to remain indefinitely – one’s permanent and lasting home.” Id.

Additionally, Virginia code requires that a “dependent student or unemancipated minor must establish by clear and convincing evidence that for a period of least one year immediately prior to the date of alleged entitlement, the parent or legal guardian through whom the student claims eligibility was domiciled in Virginia and had abandoned any previous domicile.” Id.

We request an explanation of how Chris Smith may vote in New Jersey after having “abandoned” New Jersey as a domicile.   Smith’s voluntary application for Virginia in-state educational benefits demonstrates his choice that Virginia, not New Jersey, is his domicile. Smith cannot be a registered voter in New Jersey and a Virginia domicile at the same time, particularly as Virginia requires that its domiciles “intend to remain indefinitely.” Smith cannot tell Virginia that he intends to remain in Virginia indefinitely while simultaneously claiming that he is domiciled in New Jersey.   Since no one compelled Smith to apply for in-state educational benefits, his voluntary act of filing the in-state tuition application clearly signals that he has chosen to be a Virginia resident.

For these reasons, we respectfully request that you revoke Smith’s registration. Given the timing of the election, we request that you rule on this request immediately.

Sincerely,                                                          

ZEITZ FOR CONGRESS  

(SSP management note: The original diary title was a bit inflammatory and misleading — I edited it to tone it down a notch. I think we need to take a chill pill here for a moment.)

just breaking — this could really f-up our chances in NC…

from politico…

The husband of North Carolina Democratic Senate hopeful Kay Hagan is a lifelong member of an exclusive country club that didn’t admit its first black member until 1995, Hagan’s campaign disclosed Tuesday.

Charles “Chip” Hagan III, a businessman and former Democratic county leader, “supported opening up membership” at the 1,000-member Greensboro Country Club – but remained a member for years despite his opposition to the club’s de facto segregation policy, Hagan spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan told Politico.

Kay Hagan, who is counting on strong support among North Carolina’s black Democrats to unseat Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole, has never been a member of the club herself, Flanagan added.

“Chip supported broadening the membership to include African Americans and others,” she said. “Though it took longer than it should have, Greensboro County Club fully desegregated in 1995 and remains so today.”

Hagan, a state senator and niece of former Florida Sen. Lawton Chiles, leads Dole by one to three points in a race that is one of the most bitterly fought in the country.  

http://www.chron.com/disp/stor…

The Houston Chronicle endroses Noriega:

It will be especially important for Texans to have a strong, respected voice inside the expected Democratic majority in the Senate. Rick Noriega offers such a voice, with a distinctive Lone Star tone and perspective. The Chronicle endorses Noriega for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican John Cornyn.

(…)

Noriega is showing himself to be the model of an effective Democrat – a centrist, moderate Texas Democrat – in a time when most voters are sick of political extremes. As such, he may one day set the standard for what a strong Texas senator can be.

Noriega also gets the endorsement of the Waco Tribune-Herald:

http://www.wacotrib.com/opin/c…

If symbolism is your bag, consider this. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s advertisements seek to imprint the message that he’s comfortable in cowboy boots.

Challenger Rick Noriega has modeled boots of his own: combat boots.

It’s just one of several reasons why the Tribune-Herald editorial board finds Noriega impressive and recommends him in the U.S. Senate race. A lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard, Noriega spent a year in Afghanistan in a command position in the wake of 9/11.

Later he would get an up-close look at border security issues with the Guard along the Mexican border. Combine this with experience in the Texas Legislature – elected to four terms in the House – and Noriega has a superlative resume in public service.

And the South Texas Police:

http://www.dallasnews.com/shar…

It’s doubtful that these endorsements will make the difference, but it’s good to see that someone finally see what a great candidate Rick Noriega is.

Too bad he is not a great fundraiser. Still, I think the DSCC should give this one another look.  

Federal Election Commission data excludes “independent expenditures” for candidates .  Include that, however, and the picture looks much better for Democrats who are dominating Independent Expenditures by a large margin.  Combining data from SSP’s IE Tracker with 3rd quarter FEC exenditures and the oicture gets clearer and happier.

Take NY-25 where Alice Kryzan won a surprising primary win.  Kryzan has been outspent about 2-1 by Christopher Lee (1,062 K to 528 K).  Lee is one of the larger self funders among GOP House candidates furnishing $650 K.  And yet, the advantage of Mr. Moneybags is eliminated if one counts the huge 884 to 77 Democratic lead in independent expenditures in the district.  It is Lee who has been outspent by a 1412 k to 1139 k margin.

Other NY House seats show a similar trend.  Eric Massa has outspent the increasingly desperate Randy Kuhl by a solid 1261 K to 883 K margin.  But Kuhl also faces a 182 k to 87 K deficit for independent expenditures putting him behind 1446 K to 970 K for double barrelled expenditures.  Dan Maffei in NY-25 stretches his lead from 1364 K to 197 K to 1509 K to 197 K.  I didn’t even record NY-13 because I only followed competitive money races.

Jim Himes may have less reserves but he’s clearly outspent Chris Shays to date by a combines 3288 K to 1987 K.  One reason why I think Shays will go down this time.  Another reason would be Shays assinine statements in support of torture.  There is no moderate torture Chrissy.

Independent Expenditures give big edges to Linda Stender and John Adler in NJ but have yet to kick in to either Dennis Shulman or Josh Zeitz.  Stender’s 1045 to 106 edge in ie gives her a combined 2685 to 856 k edge in cycle to date expenditures.  Adler leads bya combined 2-1 at 1849 to 911 over Myers.  A late half million would seal the deal for Shulman and might move Zeitz over the complacent, slow spending Christopher Smith.  Shulman has already raised more money than any Garrett opponent (911 K) and although outspent he’s staying in the game.  A late hammer ala Nancy Boyda in 2006 would do the job.

Two PA Democrats are benefiting big time from independent expenditures but others have not.  Phil English has badly outspent Kathy Dahlkemper, 1631 K to 456 k but the IE bucks have kept Kathy in the game and kept Philly the Hutt to a modest 2250 to 1795 overall edge.  He’s on the verge of coming down despite a big fund raising effort.  Just like Leia choking off Jabba in on eof the Star War movies.  Paul Kanjorski, the embattled Nanticoke Democrat, has added a humongous 1894 to 68 IE edge to his already massive bucks.  Kanjorski has an overall 3663 to 745 spending edge and still trails.  

Then there are those PA Democrats still on the outside looking in: Sam Bennett, McCracken, and Roggio.  Bennett is circling around Charlie Dent with a 970+574 deficit in expenditures.  It’s winnable but it may take a little help.  Clearly a good call to bring in the outside help here.  The PA-5 race has seen 1950s style spending with McCracken at 40 k and still trailing by only 190-40 K.  I wonder how $500 K would be spent in this district with two weeks to go.  Roggio appears out of the game with Gerlach outspending him by 1483 to 367 K.  If he wins it will be a coat tail ride with the D by his name bringing him home.  Talk about a generic Democratic victory.

Three other races show outside expenditures keeping Kratovil in the race for MD-1 with extremist Club For Growth puppet Harris.  Winnable for sure with the overall 2156 to 1842 Harris edge due to primary spending.  With outgoing Republican WQayne Gilchrest supporting Kratovil, Frank can pull this one off.  In MD-6. the aged Roscoe Bartlett has outspent Jennifer Dougherty by a pathetic 98 K to 89 K margin.  The old boy is saving it for a few more terms?  DE-At Large is another story.  Mike Castle had a 30 point lead in the only poll I’ve seen and a bigger 1381 to 17 K edge in expenditures.  

Ohio was a disappointment in 2006 with lots of close losses and a confortable win by Zach Space to replace scandal ridden Bob Ney in OH-18.  Outside expenditures are playing a big role for the Democrats in three Ohio districts.  In OH-1 Steve Dreihaus is usinga 1104 to 643 bulge over Chabot to hang competitively overall (1879 k to 1888 k for Chabot).  Mary Jo Kilroy is using a bigger 1323 to 319 K edge in IE to drown Steve Stivers by an overall 2849 to 1468 K margin.  In Oh-16 Boccieri’s blankingof Schuring in IE (1780 K to 0) adds to a small edge in campaign spending (1035 to 992) for an overall 2815 to 992 pasting.  Surprisingly little IE money has gone to defeat the queen of mean, Jean Schmidt (163 K to 74 K for Schmidt).  Vic Wulsin has a solid spending edge to date of 1354 to 816.  No IE spending at all for Jane Mitakides, Sharon Neuhardt or Bill O’Neill in other OH races where they trail Republican opponents in the spending wars.

In Michigan, Gary Peters has gotten 950 K in IE expenditures to 0 for Joe Knollenberg putting him in the drivers seat.  Schauer’s 1283 to 789 IE edge over Walberg boosts a narrow edge in campaign expenditures to a comfy margin. In IN, Baron Hill is the big gainer (725 K to 5 for Sodrel) and is safe.  Mike Montagano has a modest 167 K in IE which gives him a 2-1 edge in spending to date over Mark Souder.  Nels Ackerson and Brad Ellsworth haven’t received IE help.  Ellsworth is safe and Ackerson is battling incumbent Steve Buyer on even terms so far.

No IL GOPer has received IE funding but two Democrats have.  Dan Seaks 479 K in IE moves him slightly ahead of Mark Kirk in expenditures to date in a free spending 3049 to 2963 race.  Debbie Halvorsen has used 1028 K in IE to a comfy 2607 to 1269 lead over Marty Ozinga.  Say bye bye Marty.  Melissa Bean needs no help against Greenberg in IL-8 but GI Jill Morgenthaler lkags ex-De Lay aide and current congressman Peter Roskam 1290 to 540 in IL-6.  Aaron Schock has a 1839 to 390 edge over Colleen Callahan but a deficit in common sense and probably IQ.

Two seats look good in MN.  Ashwin Madia is using a 1289 to 39 edge in IE to crush wonder boy Erik Paulsen by an overall 2285 to 1179 in spending.  Bye bye Erik.  El Tinklenberg added 1.7 million to the listed 646 K and Michelle Bachmann (1106 combined will be going home.  Sarvi has gotten no help vs. Kline in MN-2.  Kagen has gotten a small edge vs. Gard in IE and a bigger edge in CTD campaign expenditures.  Overall, looks good.

One of the few races where IE favors the Republican is WV-2 where Capito has used a 681 K to 0 IE lead to build a million dollar edge in CTD expenditures overall.  Time to hit back.  In KY-2, Boswell used 601 K in IE to build an overall 920-337 lead over Guthrie,  No money to Yarmuth who looks good for re-election anyway.  Heather Ryan has been outspent 494 K to 5 K by Exxon Eddie Whitfield.  Heather has gone further on 5 K than anybody would think possible.

Elsewhere in the south, Gerry Connally used a 1153 to 0 IE lead to put his race for VA-11 to bed over Keith Fimmian.  Connally has a narrow edge in campaign expenditures.  JudyFeder and TomPerriello hold narrow spending edges and Glen Nye the VA-2 opponent to Thelma Drake uses a stout 522 to 197 k in IE to hold even in overall spending 91029 to 1274).  Larry Kissell’s 1.301 M in IE gives him a small overall lead to Robin Hayes.  Carter and Johnson remain real long shots vs. Foxx and McHenry.  

Linda Ketner (SC-1) has used her private fortune to outspend Brown 1346 to 467 k with no IEs on either side. Alan rayson has similarly outspent Ric Keller by a 1678 to 572 margin in FL-8.  Incumbent GOPer Vern Buchanan has outspent Christine Jennings by a 3336 to 1963 K margin.  IE totals are not significant.  OTOH, Suzanne Kosmas has used a 697-183 IE lead to build an overall 1899 to 1373 spending lead over Tom Feeney.  Bye bye.  Lincoln Diaz Ballart benefits from a 622-124 edge in IE to lead Raul Martinez 2165 to 662 in expenditures to date.  Brother Mario is locked into an overall 1288 to 1188 edge over Joe Garcia. Ros-Lehtinen leads Taddeo by 2-1 (1655 to 805 yet Annette is climbing in name ID rapidly and scrapping very hard.  The Alabama trio of Bright, Segall and Griffith remain competitive with Jay Love holding an overall 1799 to 1364 expenditure edge; Mike Rogers leading 1139 over the neophyte Segall and Griffith holding off Parker at 1513 to 899.  Griffith and Bright benefit from IE leads.

IEs don’t factor in LA so far.  Don Cazayoux has an early but sizeable lead over the vaunted Cassidy and the non-moonwalking Michael Jackson.  Gorman and Fleming each have more money than Carmouche (LA-4).  Self funder Harlan is competitive with Steve Scalisae in LA-1, at least monetarily.  Ousiders Michael Skelly (1511 to 677) and Larry Doherty are outspending incumbents McCaul and Culberson in TX-7 and TX-10.  In TX-22, Nick Lampson is only competitive with Pete Olson.  Not a ghood sign.  Ciro Rodriguez is home free (2685 to 480).

In the Plains states, the action is limited.  Judy Baker leads the polls despite having been outspent by Leutkemyer 1037-739 so far.  MO-6 is the reverse asa Kay Barnes has outspent Sam Graves 2039 to 1698 but she trails.  Becky Greenwald is within hailing distance of Tom Latham (699 to 430 with no IEs).  The odious Steve King has a 510-152 edge in spending over Rob Hubler in IA-5.  Lynn Jenkins has used 146 K in IE to take an overall 1052 to 953 K lead over Nancy Boyda.  Other foul ups seem more important here.  Esch has a 158 to 0 lead over Terry in IE but Terry has a 2-1edge overall at 968-487.

In the Mountains, Minnick has an overall 1926 to 943 edge but it is Salie who leads in IE at 252-111.  Trauner (796) and Lummis (756) are spending evenly in WY with no IE.  Betsy Markey is using a 1607-429 IE lead to fashion an overall 3024 to 2033 spending edge in CO-4.  Dina Titus has a 870-44 IE lead over incumbent Jon Ensign in NV-3 and a slim 1917 to 1860 overall spending lead.  In NV-2, incumbent GOPer Dean Heller has a 1077 to 585 overall lead over Jill Derby.

IEs play a big role in Arizona.  The race to replace Rick Renzi in AZ-1 is over.  Ann Kirkpatrick used a 1241 to 399 edge in campaign spending and a 1343 to 14 lead in IEs to put Sydney Hay away early and permanently. Similarly, over a million (1090 k) in IEs puts John Shadegg on his heels.  Bob Lord has also matched Sgadegg in campaign expenditures dollar for dollar and a little more ( 1247 to 123 for Shadegg).  Mitchell and Giffords look like easy re-elects.

Three seats are open in New Mexico and Democrats lead the money race for all three seats.  In NM-2 Teague has outsoent Tinsley 2-1 (3222 to 1599) with a 747 to 0 bulge in IEs leading the way.  Lujan leads East 1028-129 in NM-3.  In the closely contested NM-2 Martin Heinrich matched 1644 wiof campaign expenditures with 1643 in IE.  Darren White was beaten 2-1 with campaign spending (1644-829) and 4-1 on IEs (1643-390).

Ethan Berkowitz used a 1102-3 edge in IEs to outspens Don Young 2944-2797.  Of cours Young spent a lot of money on his l;egal defense.  In CA, McNerney used 1042 k in IEs for a 2754 to 450 k edge over Andal.  McClintock has outspent Charlie Brown 2486 to 1483 with a lot of the spending coming in primary season for McClintock. Many other races are close in spending including CA-3 (Durston, 364 vs. Lungren,447), CA-4 CA-26 (Dreier 1813 vs. Russ warner at 1107. Chau (160) vs. Gary Miller (214). Cook 241 vs. Rohrabacher  222.