Month: October 2008

With Democrat Bobby Bright hemorrhaging support in his own polling and badly lagging in the fundraising race against Republican Jay Love, this comes as an extremely timely boost:

The fallout from a brutal Republican Congressional primary race continued Monday when Republican state senator Harri Anne Smith endorsed Democratic Congressional candidate Bobby Bright.

Smith batted current Republican Congressional candidate Jay Love in the 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary race earlier this year, and said Love lied about her during the campaign.

“Jay Love lied about my record just to further his own agenda and now he’s lying about Bobby Bright,” Smith said.

Smith made the announcement Monday morning in Dothan at Wiregrass Veterans Park as part of Bright’s “America First Truck Tour.”

“It is time that elected officials put America’s agenda first and the people’s agenda first,” Bright said. “It’s time to put party labels in the back seat.”

This is the second big GOP endorsement for Bright in the Wiregrass area (Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas was the first), and it couldn’t have come at a better time. It’s hard to say how many supporters she’ll deliver Bright’s way, but it is a good sign that Jay Love is still, well, unloved in some Republican circles.

Doc’s Political Parlor has more.

The following is the updated version of a FAQ guide I published before OR’s primary in May talking about how Oregon’s Vote by Mail system works.  In addition, I have added information on how to interpret Oregon’s results on election night.

Cross-Posted from Daily Kos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

The following is a combination of basic facts about Oregon’s election process and how to track results:

Q: So when did this whole Vote by Mail thing start?

A: Vote by Mail became law in 1998 as the result of the passage of an initiative backed by former SOS Phil Keisling (D).  However, what really spurred this development were two factors.  First, the 1990s had seen a steady but substantial increase in the number of people voting by mail with somewhere between a quarter and a half of all ballots being cast that way.  Second, when Senator Bob Packwood (R) resigned due to allegations of sexual misconduct in 1995, the state decided that, in order to conduct a fairly quick special election to fill this vacancy, they would do it entirely by mail.

Q: Does it make a difference in turnout?

A: Yes, it does.  Oregon has always been a high turnout state, turnout in the 1996 general election was 71%, but it has gone up since vote by mail became law.  Turnout in the general election since its passage has been 80% (2000), 69% (2002), 86% (2004) and 71% (2006).

Q: So how does this process actually work, how do you vote?

A: I’m glad you asked.  Here is my summary (mostly copied from my Friday diary btw):

1. Register to vote at least 21 days before an election.  A bit restrictive I know but it is what it is.

2. Receive Voters’ Pamphlets for primary and general elections somewhere around 2-3 weeks to as much as a month before the election, containing the normal candidate entries, arguments on ballot initiatives, etc.  This information is also available online at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/guide/cover.html

3. Receive a ballot about 2-2.5 weeks before an election.  The ballot comes inside an outer envelope which contains a return envelope and a “secrecy envelope” (more on that later) along with a pamphlet detailing basics about the ballot initiatives if any are on the ballot for that election.  

4. Fill out your ballot (a sample from Multnomah County showing the candidates for all districts in the county is seen here (an actual ballot only contains the races you are actually voting on): 2008 General Election Sample Ballot  either at home, at a booth at the County elections office or anywhere else you wish.

5. Seal the ballot inside the secrecy envelope and then seal that inside the return envelope.  Sign the return envelope.

6. Either mail it in (proper postage must be attached) (before Friday only since ballots must be received by election day) or drop it off at any of your county’s drop boxes by 8 PM on election day (Multnomah County’s List of Drop Boxes is provided here: Multnomah County Official Drop Sites.

7. The signature on your return envelope is then checked and compared with the one in the registration database.  If it matches they open the return envelope (storing it separately) and the ballot inside its secrecy envelope is placed on a tray to be counted.  

8. The fact that you have voted is registered and political parties/other interested groups can check the list so they know who still should be targeted.  The upside of this is that once you vote you stop getting campaign calls, mail, canvassers, etc.

Q: So how are ballots counted?

A: As follows:

1. When a ballot is received, it is scanned and compared with that on file either by computer or by hand.  In either case, a pollworker monitors the process to check all signatures.

2. After being verified, all ballots are separated into precinct batches (the coding for that is on the outer envelope).

3. Beginning a week before the election (ballot deadline date), opening boards (groups of 2-4 people from different political parties) open the return envelopes and separate the secrecy envelope from the return envelope (to assure a secret vote).  The return envelope is set aside to serve as the official register of who voted.  Ballots are always monitored to ensure that they are not lost or tampered with.

4. The secrecy envelope is then opened and ballots are taken out, straightened and inspected for irregularities, then sorted into sealed boxes (again by precinct) to wait for election day.

5. In preparation for election day, the crews test all the optical scanning equipment (they also test it on election day before any ballot is counted) to make sure it is working properly.

6. Starting as early as 12:01 AM on election day (although most, if not all counties start later) counties may start feeding the ballots into the optical scanners to tabulate results.  The first results are released at 8 PM and counting continues until all ballots are counted.  The ballots are always kept so that they can be used to facilitate any necessary recount.  This entire process is observed by a neutral observer board, consisting of equal numbers of Ds and Rs (usually 2-5 of each).

Q: So how is security ensured and have there been any incidents of fraud under this system?

A: Security is ensured because paper ballots mean that we can always go back and check the results.  Also, the ballots are quite easy to understand and fill out.  As to fraud, there has not been a single significant incident of fraud since the system was put into place (and trust me there are many interest groups that would love to find such examples).  In addition, Oregon’s open government laws, some of the strongest in the nation, make it easier for almost all election records to be examined by any interested citizen.

Q: But there are some problems right?

A: Yup.  Not many but two in particular.  First, the software they use to tabulate the results is not open source software.  Second, the auditing procedures required to ensure the results reported are correct are good but could be better.  Still, most voting advocates recognize that Oregon has one of the best systems in the country.

Q: How do I track results?

A: Oregon’s SOS will have a results page but the link is not available yet.  The best alternates are:

The Oregonian (Statewide Newspaper of record): (http://www.oregonlive.com/)

KGW (NBC affiliate in Portland): (http://www.kgw.com/).

Q: How long will we have to wait for results and will there be exit polling?

A: Results will typically be released on the following schedule (all times Pacific):

8 PM-Ballots due, Multnomah County releases its first count (ballots cast before Monday night), expect this result to be skewed in Obama’s favor.

9-9:30 PM-Major counting completed of ballots cast prior to Monday/Tuesday in most counties.  Results are typically updated every 30-60 minutes.

11 PM-Most results apparent.  If the margin is 3% or less we may have to wait overnight but anything more than that they’ll have called it by now.

12 PM Wednesday-Count completed typically by this time.

Exit polling is conducted by calling those who have already voted as well as those who have not voted but can be expected to vote.  It actually tends to be more accurate as a result since they can base their sample off those who have indeed voted rather than a random sample.r.

Q: What are the key counties?

A: The following are the seven largest counties in the state:

Multnomah (Portland, all the way east to Mt. Hood): 422,000 registered voters.

Washington (Suburban, tech-heavy and agricultural): 267,000 registered voters.

Clackamas (Suburban and agricultural, fastest-growing urban county in the state): 220,000 registered voters.

Lane (Eugene, Springfield and other assorted communities, mix of urban, suburban and rural): 205,000 registered voters.

Marion (Salem (OR’s capital), mix of assorted industries/communities): 148,000 registered voters.

Jackson (Medford, Ashland, the largest R leaning county in the state): 119,000 registered voters.

Deschutes (Bend and Central Oregon, one of the most beautiful places in the state): 92,000 registered voters.

If this confuses you, watch this video on OR’s Vote by Mail process:

So that’s it.  Let me know any questions or comments you have.

The chart below (a companion to this one) shows the SSP Cash Power Index for open House seats. (Our 2Q chart is here.) The same caveats apply:

Many campaigns made final spending decisions before the filing deadline, so cash-on-hand figures may look artificially “low” in some cases. In other words, just looking at the final Cash Power Rankings often won’t give you a complete picture of where things stand. That’s why it’s important to consult our 3Q House fundraising chart in concert with this listing.

This list also does not take into account third-party independent expenditures (you can find that information here) or 527 “electioneering” expenditures (available here), which are another important measure of a race’s competitiveness.

Note: Gary Trauner and Paul Carmouche are listed with multiple prior rankings due to multi-way GOP primaries.

P.S. I think you can see why we moved NY-13 to Safe D, huh?

* We did not include MO-09 in our 2Q chart because of large primaries on both sides. Had we included Baker-Leutkemeyer with their CoH at the time, Baker would have ranked 17th at 99%.

The Minnesota Senate race just might come down to the wire, and a pair of new polls suggest that this one is anyone’s game at the moment.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/15-16, likely voters):

Al Franken (DFL): 41

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 39

Dean Barkley (I): 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

And SurveyUSA (10/16-18, likely voters, 9/30-10/1 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 39 (33)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (43)

Dean Barkley (I): 18 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA has given us a few polls that seem to be skewed in the Republican direction from Minnesota this year, but this one is a bit more in line with other recent polls.

While both polls find Dean Barkley taking an equal share of the vote, they don’t quite agree on the source of his support. In the R2K poll, Barkley takes a greater share of Democratic votes (15%) than Republican votes (8%), while his share is a bit more even in SUSA’s polling (13% of Dems and 11% of GOPers). Whether or not those voters stick with Barkley in November (and where they end up instead) is the true million dollar question here.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McCain by 52-39 in the R2K poll, and 50-44 according to SUSA.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/15-16, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 42 (37)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 46 (50)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s some nice mo’ for Lunsford in the past month, who has gained some more ground among Democrats and Independents since the previous R2K poll here. Post-bailout, McConnell’s favorable rating has taken a bit of a hit — he currently sits at 47-46, down from 51-43 in September.

Lunsford will need a strong finish in order to pull this off, but this race is looking a lot more doable than it did a couple of months ago.

A round-up of all the major House race independent expenditures filed in the last seven days:

More details on these and other expenditures are available at SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

What perfect timing – on the same day SSP celebrated its fifth birthday, we also welcomed our five millionth visitor! Five years ago, I certainly never imagined passing a milestone anything like this. Here’s to five million more!

Back in June, somebody noted that if Bill Gillespie got more votes in his primary than Jack Kingston did in his, the DCCC would come down and do a poll. Well, BIll got more votes than Jack in the primary. Nobody’s ever done that before. DCCC still hasn’t done anything, but with Bill’s tireless campaigning and massively increased voter registration in his district, and the stars are aligned for Bill Gillespie to win GA-01.

Jack Kingston (you remember him, Mr. flag pin, leader of the privatize Social Security movement, proponent of drilling off the Georgia coast, etc.) tried to ignore Bill for a long time, but recently debated him in Brunswick, Georgia.

This is a substantive debate on the issues, with the moderator (Brunswick News reporter Jess Davis) sitting between the two candidates and pitching real questions.

Jack seems peeved to have to be on the same forum as some upstart; sound like certain other debates? Bill was the keynote speaker at the Valdosta Obama office opening.

Bill Gillespie wants to get us out of Iraq by handing over to the Iraqis, preferably within 18 months. Jack Kingston wants any timetable to be decided by the general in Baghdad.

Jack Kingston promotes himself as a champion of renewable energy (although local students don’t agree) but then gets off on offshore drilling.

Bill Gillespie answers Jack’s drilling hatchet with a scalpel and then describes his vision for renewable energy jobs for south Georgia and ties it to extensive existing rail infrastructure.

Jack says he’s a champion of the middle class, and Bill calls him on it, pointing out that themiddleclass.org consistently gives Jack an F.

There’s more: economy, health care, regulation, etc. Watch it and see what you think. Want to knock out the Republican theme team leader? Here’s your chance, with a progressive Democrat, Bill Gillespie.

Back in August, we crunched the voter registration numbers in nine key Florida congressional districts, and found Democrats making big gains in all of them.

The Florida Division of Elections has just posted new numbers for each congressional district, and a quick glance confirms that the trend is continuing big time. Statewide, Democrats have added an additional 200,000 registered voters to their advantage over the GOP since July. But let’s take a look at the same nine districts that we looked at in August.

In the 2006 column, we have the GOP’s voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the numbers as of July 28 of this year, followed by the most recent numbers (October 8).  Take a peek:

Wow — for the first time, Democrats now have a partisan advantage in the 8th District, where Democrat Alan Grayson is taking on GOP crumb-bum Ric Keller. Keller is locked in the fight of his political life, and these numbers prove it.

While two of these districts are pretty much off the map in terms of realistic Democratic pick-up opportunities (the 9th CD and the open seat dud in the 15th), the other huge shift can be seen in South Florida, where Democrats are waging tough fights against the Diaz-Balart brothers (the 21st and 25th CDs) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 18th District. For years, these districts were seen as Republican strongholds, but now, Democrats have chipped away significantly at the GOP’s edge.

Democrats have even made up a lot of ground in the 16th District; it’s just too bad that disgraced Rep. Tim Mahoney has squandered it all.

Full raw numbers for all of these districts are available below the fold.

October 8, 2008:

July 28, 2008:

October 10, 2006:

9/15/08

Support the troops?

Like many other veterans, I was happy to get some help from the federal government after serving our country. I was able to go to college because of the GI Bill. A bill that not only was excellent for veterans, but was good for America because of its good effects on the national economy. John McCain opposed the 21st Century GI Bill because it is “too generous.

John McCain might be a veteran, but it’s hard to believe it, when you look at his voting record. Not many people really know just how bad his voting record is when it comes to the troops.  It is consistent – whether it is for equipment, for veteran’s health care, for adequate troop rest or anything that actually supports our troops, McCain votes against it.

The facts:

May 2008: McCain would not vote on the new GI Bill that would provide better educational opportunities to veterans of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. McCain said he opposes the bill because he thinks the generous benefits would “encourage more people to leave the military.”)

McCain did vote for tripling veterans’ health care fees, while he opposed increased funding for veterans’ health care.

September 2007: McCain opposed an amendment that would have prevented the Department of Veterans Affairs from outsourcing jobs, many held by blue-collar veterans, without first giving the workers a chance to compete.

September  2007: McCain voted against the Webb amendment calling for adequate troop rest between deployments

May 2006:  McCain voted against an amendment that would provide $20 million to the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) for health care facilities.

April 2006:  McCain was one of only 13 Senators to vote against VA outpatient care and treatment for veterans.

March 2006:  McCain voted against increasing Veterans medical services funding by $1.5 billion in FY 2007 to be paid for by closing corporate tax loopholes.

November 2005: McCain voted against an amendment to appropriate $500 million annually from 2006-2010 for mental health and rehabilitation services for veterans diagnosed with mental illness and posttraumatic stress disorder.

March 2004:  McCain once again voted for corporate tax loopholes instead of veterans when he voted against creating a reserve fund to allow for an increase in Veterans’ medical care by $1.8 billion by eliminating corporate tax loopholes.  

October 2003:  McCain voted to table an amendment by Senator Dodd that called for an additional $322,000,000 for safety equipment for United States forces in Iraq.

April 2003:  McCain urged other Senate members to table a vote (which never passed) to provide more than $1 billion for National Guard and Reserve equipment in Iraq related to a shortage of helmets, tents, bullet-proof inserts, and tactical vests.

August 2001:  McCain voted against increasing the amount available for medical care for veterans by $650,000,000.  

Although his campaign website devotes a large section to veterans issues, he consistently votes against the troops. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gave Senator McCain a grade of D for support.

Support the troops? When it comes to caring for American veterans,

John McCain is all talk and no walk.  He likes to talk about supporting the troops. His record shows the opposite. Remember that when you vote.