Month: October 2008

This is just surreal. The Arizona Democratic Party issued the following statement this afternoon. Due to the extreme bizarreness of this development, I’m reprinting the release in full:

Lost and Found: John Shadegg’s campaign credit card discovered at Democratic office

A credit card for John Shadegg’s campaign was found this weekend under the front desk of a Democratic Party office.

The card is issued to a senior Shadegg campaign operative, lists Shadegg’s re-election organization and was found near Democratic campaign materials.

The Democratic Party notified Shadegg’s campaign office that the card has been found. The party has also filed a report with the Tempe Police Department and with the credit card company.

“It’s extremely disturbing that a senior campaign operative for Republican John Shadegg would leave a credit card under a desk at one of our offices,” said Maria Weeg, Executive Director of the Arizona Democratic Party. “We let Congressman Shadegg know we found his credit card and requested Shadegg promptly explain what a member of his staff was doing in our office and how his campaign credit card arrived in our office.”

Congressman Shadegg has a responsibility to personally answer the following questions:

1)         How did his campaign credit card arrive in a Democratic Party office?

2)         What was a member of his congressional and campaign staff doing in the office?

3)         Did his staff member access any information in the office or remove any materials – and, if so, will he return this information and materials?

UPDATE: Mystery solved, I guess:

Update from Shadegg campign.  Email from campaign to Arizona Democratic Party.

Maria,

Thank you very much for bringing this to my attention.

I’m just learning about this, sorry about the delay in getting back to you.

I have learned that it was a credit card issued to xxxxxx who gave it to a volunteer, xxxxxx, who was in the Tempe area and he saw the Obama office and went in to get a bumper sticker. Apparently it fell out of his pocket when he paid for the bumper sticker.

We cancelled the card last night when we realized it was lost.

Thank you for turning it over to the police.

As barium says in the comments, it looks like even Shadegg’s volunteers prefer Obama over McCain!

LATE UPDATE: Not so fast — it turns out that this “volunteer” was Shadegg’s deputy campaign manager!

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/2-3 in parens):

John Adler (D): 43 (38)

Chris Myers (R): 35 (34)

Undecided: 22 (29)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

The NRCC has spent a decent chunk of coin on this race considering their dire finances ($200K, mostly on mail), but I have to wonder if they’ll actually take this fight to the airwaves. Faced with such a daunting cash disadvantage, I kinda doubt that they’ll go up on the air in this district (which is in one of the most expensive markets in the nation according to SSP’s Bang-for-the-Buck Index), but stupider decisions have been made by Tom Cole this year.

Democracy Corps (10/16-19, likely voters):

Jim Martin (D): 44

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s what we call “striking distance”, folks. While this race will require a huge final push, Chambliss is dangerously below 50% in eight of the last ten polls. Hopefully the DSCC will crank it up and and launch a saturation campaign in the final two weeks, but Martin still needs our help. His name ID is only at 55% according to this poll, meaning he has a lot of room to grow but not much time to do it.

If you’ve thought about donating to Jim Martin, please do so now — he could use the boost. Let’s get the total number of donors on SSP’s Actblue page up to an even 100.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by only 46-44 in Georgia (with another 4% split evenly for Barr and Nader).

UPDATE: In the comments, safi makes a good observation: this poll didn’t include Libertarian Allen Buckley, who has taken levels of support in the mid-single digits in other recent polls.

It seems that the Republican Party can’t run away from Michele Bachmann’s foul brand of haterade fast enough. First it was Colin Powell, and now it’s Sarah Palin herself:

Speaking with reporters in Colorado yesterday, Palin said she does not agree with Rep. Michele Bachmann’s recent comments suggesting that some congressmen hold “anti-American views,” NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger reports. “Well that’s quite subjective,” she said of Bachmann’s comments. “I would think that anybody running and wanting to serve in Congress is quite pro-American because that’s what the mission is, to better this country, so I would question the intent of that.”

When Sarah Palin, herself no stranger to the most vile kind of mudslinging, says that your attacks are beyond the pale, I think you’ve officially crossed the line by any objective standard.

Talk about a perfect storm for Democrat El Tinklenberg. His campaign has raised over $700,000 since Bachmann’s Hardball meltdown — a massive sum of cash for a campaign that needed a boost. We reported on Saturday night that the DCCC will be entering this contest, but we now have more details on their investment:

The party plans to spend $1 million against GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who recently said Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama “may have anti-American views.” President Bush carried her district by 15 percentage points over John Kerry in 2004.

Thanks for the timely freakout, Michele!

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Usually you don’t see public pollsters use phrases like “annihilating” in their poll write-ups, but PPP just went there (“Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38.”). It’s hard to tell if last week’s sample was a statistical blip or not (Hagan led +9 and +8 in the two weeks before); the fact that her lead among African-Americans dipped to 78-12 last week (and is now back up to 84-7) suggests that it probably was.

I’m glad to see PPP so relentlessly polling their home state (especially with such gigantic sample sizes), as North Carolina is probably the hottest state in this election, with not just NC-Sen but also the close governor’s race and presidential swing state status. At the top of the ticket, Obama leads McCain 51-44 (with McCain now leading among white voters by only 55-39). Governor’s race numbers will come out tomorrow.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Kay Hagan has expanded her lead over Liddy Dole to 7 points, 49-42.  Those rocking chair guys have been brutal to Liddy.

And then there’s that other race: Obama 51, McCain 44.

Meanwhile, thru the first 4 days of early voting in NC, the record-setting turnout has been 62% DEM, 21% GOP, 17% Ind. This compares to the registration that is 46% DEM, 32% GOP, 22% Ind.  This cannot be anything but good news for Democrats up and down the ballot.

Earlier this week I received an email from a 5th district voter with very strong pro-life beliefs who would like to vote for me.  She told me via email that she is comfortable that I am Catholic and my stance on pro-life issues is similar to that of Sen. Robert Casey.   She feels it is very likely Barack Obama will be elected President and the Democratic Party will gain seats Congress.   Where her concern lies is what actions a newly inaugurated President Barack Obama and a United States Congress with a strong Democratic majority will take after January of 2009.   She is afraid there will be a far left agenda that will attempt to overturn pro-life initiatives put into effect like the ban on partial birth abortions.

In my response back to her, I explained that my agenda when I arrive in Washington will be exactly what I’ve been campaigning on.  I want to concentrate on fiscal responsibility, a national energy policy that stresses domestically produced alternative fuels, health care and health insurance reform, saving and strengthening Social Security, rescinding No Child Left Behind and bringing our troops home from Iraq.   I also mentioned that I will not stand for Congress losing sight of what the agenda must be — solving the problems important to the middle class.

There are so many important issues the American people want resolved and, if they give the Democratic Party a mandate with the election of Barack Obama as President and a larger majority in the United States Congress, we must strictly honor the wishes of the people.  From Barack Obama on down, we need to realize going in the American people want results and they want the mess left by George W. Bush cleaned up.  What they not accept is veering off on a far left agenda that brings issues to the table that have nothing to do with the economy and the problems of the middle class.

For the first time since the so called “Reagan Revolution” in 1980, the country is ready to put their full trust in the Democratic Party.  The Democratic Party the voters want to see is one that will concentrate on the problems of the middle class and will reflect the leadership values of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy.  To make this happen and to honor the trust the American people will give to the Democratic Party on November 4th, the far left elements must stand down and allow Barack Obama and a moderate Democratic Congress to lead this country.  This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn our country around and there is no margin for error.

Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama:

Today’s endorsement by Colin Powell of Barack Obama is news that will likely solidify what the outcome will be on November 4th.  To have someone of Gen. Powell’s stature come out and endorse Sen. Obama should speak volumes to any of the undecided voters still out there.  It should also encourage those to of us who long ago decided that Barack Obama is the leader we need that we made the right choice.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This week I participated in 3 candidate forum / debates with my opponents.   I feel very confident in my performance against my 2 opponents and I am able to show the voters that we are on their side on the important issues like fiscal responsibility, health care reform, saving Social Security, energy policy and the concern for the problems of the middle class.  

On Friday evening, Henry Guthrie and I traveled to Forest County to meet with members of the Democratic Party there.   Thanks to Sheriff Bob Wolfgang for arranging the meeting.   There was a large contingent of Forest County Democrats at the meeting and they are ready to do everything they can to help our campaign and see a big Democratic victory on November 4th.

On Saturday evening, Kelly and I traveled to Ridgway for the Elk County Democratic Committee fall dinner.  It was a wonderful event and we got to hear a round of great speeches from Nye Simmons representing the Obama campaign, Don Hilliard running for the State Senate and Rep. Dan Surra running for re-election to the state house.  The folks in Elk County are out working hard for the Democratic ticket and I reminded them that Elk County with a solid Democratic registration majority will play a large role in the outcome of the 5th district race.

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 11:30 AM — Williamsport Rotary

Monday — 5:00 PM — McCracken for Congress Pre-Debate Reception – St. James Church Parish Hall — 30 Wellsboro Street — Mansfield PA.  

Monday — 7:00 PM — Tioga County Debate — Mansfield Univ. Straughn Auditorium

Tuesday — 3 – 3:45 PM — Arnold Addison Court in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 4 – 5 PM Foxdale Retirement Community in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 7 PM — Bellefonte Media Outlet Debate

Wednesday — 6:30 PM — Mifflin County Farm Bureau Debate — Indian Valley HS – Lewistown

Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU TV Debate — State College

Friday — WJAC Debate in Centre County — Details TBA

Saturday — 1 PM — Cameron County Democratic Lunch – Emporium

Saturday — 5 PM — Centre County Fall Democratic Banquet — State College

Sunday — 12 Noon — House Party at Marie Sweets in State College

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Mason-Dixon for Casper Star-Tribune (10/13-14, likely voters):

Gary Trauner (D): 44

Cynthia Lummis (R): 43

David Herbert (L): 4

(n = 625)

Apparently Mason-Dixon liked what they saw with Research 2000‘s poll last week of the at-large representative’s race in Wyoming, because they reproduced the exact same numbers. The most noteworthy difference here is the inclusion of Libertarian David Herbert, which explains where some of that unaccounted-for 13% from the R2K poll may be going.

There’s still some bad news for Trauner: of the 9% who remain undecided in this poll, 75% are Republicans. (Only 16% are Democrats and 9% are independents.) On the other hand, there’s some good news, too: Mason-Dixon polled this race for the Star-Tribune at this point two years ago, and Trauner trailed Barbara Cubin by 7%, but went on to lose by less than 1,000 votes.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50

Marty Ozinga (R): 29

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Looks like Daily Kos has a bit of competition on the blogs-commissioning-polls front: Illinois local blog Progress Illinois (sponsored by the Illinois SEIU) has ordered polls of the two hottest House races in Illinois. The IL-11 poll is extremely good news; there had been some worries that the Halvorson internal from a few days ago taken by Anzalone Liszt was a little too good to be true (at 48-29), but these numbers almost exactly match. Money was the one asset that Ozinga had and it kept him competitive for many months, but with his fundraising numbers trailing off and Ozinga’s big fundraising dinner with Dick Cheney last week called off so Cheney could go get his heart rebooted, Ozinga’s chances seem to be circling the drain.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded IL-11 to Lean Democratic.

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 47

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Things don’t look quite as good further north in the 10th, as Dan Seals trails incumbent Mark Kirk by 6. This is pretty close to R2K’s poll from a few weeks ago (Kirk up 44-38), but a mirror image to SurveyUSA‘s subsequent poll (Seals up 52-44). It’s still encouraging to see Kirk well below 50, but it looks like this one will go down to the wire, with Seals heavily dependent on Obama coattails.