Awesome news: Pollster.com has re-launched its awesome House race map, which includes polling data and charts for every race which has been publicly polled.
If you know of any polls which Pollster has missed, let us know in comments and we’ll shoot an email over to our friends there once we have them all collected.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):
Dan Seals (D): 38
Mark “Tiberius” Kirk (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5%)
The major flaw of this poll was that it was conducted during Rosh Hashanah, meaning that some Democratic-leaning voters could have been shut out of the poll in a distict with a significant Jewish population.
Still, though, the numbers are in-line with a Global Strategy Group poll from August showing Kirk ahead by 46-39. But the big number is at the top of the ticket, where Obama is leading McCain by 50-38. John Kerry won this district by only 53-47 in 2004, and Obama is poised to do significantly better here. That will seriously complicate things for faux moderate Mark Kirk as he tries to claw his way up to 50%.
As we enter the final stretch run of the 2008 election cycle, it’s time we took the pulse of the Senate again. You know what to do: Rank the Senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s “new” ad looks like it was cobbled together from vintage footage shot in the 1980s… in Cuba:
Why is Ileana rushing a recycled ad on to the air? For one, she was completely caught off-guard by Annette Taddeo getting up on TV first, with a positive bio ad followed by a hit tying IRL to Bush. But far more embarrassing is this: Ileana just got (by her own admission) an awful new haircut. It’s so bad that apparently she won’t film new footage until it grows out. With any luck, that’ll be after Nov. 4th.
This takes “vanity campaign” to a whole ‘nother level.
Monmouth University (9/30-10/2, likely voters):
Linda Stender (D): 39
Leonard Lance (R): 43
Michael Hsing (I): 2
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.8%)
It’s a tight race, which is no surprise in this swing district. The previous poll that we saw from this match-up, by Dem pollster Anzalone Liszt, gave Stender a 36-33 lead, with Republican-turned-Independent Hsing taking a more sizable 9% of the vote. The silver lining for Stender here is the district’s general congressional preference, with 37% of registered voters preferring Democratic control of Congress to 29% siding with the GOP. Among undecided voters, that margin is 29-17.
Both candidates are largely undefined, with 55% having no opinion of Lance, and 51% having no opinion of Stender — though Stender’s unfavorables are slightly higher (22%) than Lance’s (18%).
The poll also gives Barack Obama a 47-46 lead over McCain in the 7th District. Bush won this CD by a 53-47 margin in 2004.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
(Hat-tip: Blue Jersey)
Mason-Dixon (9/29-10/1, likely voters, 8/13-15 in parens):
Mark Udall (D): 43 (47)
Bob Schaffer (R): 38 (37)
Undecided: 14 (14)
(MoE: ±4%)
That’s a slight dip for Udall, who has been hammered by Freedom’s Watch and the NRSC in recent weeks. But the poll also finds a shift at the Presidential level, as well, with Obama and McCain tied at 44-44. Now, despite some recent polls showing Obama putting some daylight between himself and McCain in Colorado, the Pollster.com composite is still very close, so the result isn’t exactly outrageous.
Dick Wadhams and Bob Schaffer clearly hope to employ a strategy of “shoving a bunch of 30-second ads up [Udall’s] ass”, but the poll has a bit of discouraging news for the GOP: Schaffer’s unfavorable score has risen from 25 to 43%, while Udall’s has only edged up from 23 to 26. That might be the kiss of death right there.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
Sometimes a story just speaks for itself. This is one of them
A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina….
Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.
Republican hopelessness: Priceless.
RESULTS: Associated Press | LA SoS
Polls have now closed in Louisiana; we’ll be following the results in this thread.
12:25AM: 464 precincts in, and it’s 25 Jefferson, 20 Moreno, 17 Richmond. 28 precincts outstanding, but it looks like we’re headed for a Jefferson-Moreno runoff, which is probably what Jefferson was hoping for.
11:51PM: 356 of 492 precincts reporting in LA-02, and it’s 25 Jefferson, 22 Moreno, 16 Lee, 15 Richmond.
11:44PM: 2 precincts remaining in LA-04, and Carmouche has topped off at 48%. Damn. I was really hoping to avoid a runoff here.
11:35PM: 23 precincts remaining in LA-04, and Carmouche is at 47.5%. I don’t think he has enough gas in the tank to avoid a runoff against Willie Banks, my friends.
11:19PM: Over in LA-04, Carmouche has pulled up to 47%, with 42 precincts in Bossier outstanding. Bossier has been breaking pretty heavily for the ‘Mouche, but will it be enough to escape a runoff?
11:11PM: 247 precincts reporting. 26 Jefferson, 22 Moreno, 17 Lee, 14 Richmond. James Carter is also getting a decent share of the vote in Orleans Parish (where most of the outstanding votes are), though it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to get him into the top two.
10:58PM: It’s now 26 Jefferson, 23 Moreno, 20 Lee in LA-02 with 171 precincts in. Richmond fell back a bit to 13.5%.
10:55PM: Fleming is now just nosing Gorman by less than 80 votes in LA-04, but that race is definitely headed for a nasty runoff. Carmouche is sitting at 46% with 93 precincts left, mostly from Bossier Parish but also 18 from Caddo.
10:45PM: 152 precincts in, and Jefferson leads with 27%, followed by Moreno at 22, Lee at 17, and Cedric Richmond now at 15.
10:23PM: 78 precincts in, and Jefferson has pulled ahead over Moreno by 27-24, with Lee sitting at 22. In LA-04, Fleming now has a 41-36 lead over Gorman.
10:17PM: 55 precincts in, and while Lee has taken a small lead over Moreno, Dollar Bill has closed the gap: 26.6-26.1-25.6.
10:11PM: 29 precincts reporting now in LA-02, and it’s a 31-30-22 race between Moreno, Lee, and Jefferson. Over in LA-04, I’m a bit less confident in my earlier prediction that Carmouche would hit 50% tonight, but we’ll see. He’s at 44% right now with a little under one-half counted.
10:05PM: He did it! With only 121 of 506 precincts reporting in LA-01, Jim Harlan has already surpassed Gilda Reed’s vote haul in the May special election. Hooray.
10:00PM: 13 precincts reporting in LA-02, and it’s dramatically closer three-way race between Moreno, Lee, and Jefferson: 681-658-525. In LA-04, Carmouche is at 43%, and Fleming has a 40-36 lead over Gorman.
9:50PM: Alright, a few more votes have been counted, and Jefferson has 13%. Former TV anchor Helena Moreno, the lone white candidate in this primary, has an early 38-28 lead over Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee.
9:47PM: Also amusing. With a single precinct reporting and 37 votes tallied in LA-02, Bill Jefferson has zero votes.
9:45PM: Amusing. With 77 of 640 precincts reporting in LA-04, the third-ranked candidate in the Democratic primary, John Milkovich, has more votes than the leader of the GOP primary, John Fleming (3087 to 2963 votes).
9:43PM: Here’s my question: Will Jim Harlan score more votes in the LA-01 Democratic primary than Gilda Reed won in the May special election for this seat? The magic number: 10,142 votes.
9:30PM: Some early results from LA-04 with just 2% reporting: physician John Fleming is up over trucking executive Chris Gorman by 41-37, with Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson in third. On the Democratic side, Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche is sitting at 44%. With very few votes counted from Caddo (Shreveport) so far, I’d expect him to hit 50% and avoid a runoff against his lesser-known opponents.
As you may have noticed, things have been pretty busy here at the Swing State Project during the past several weeks. With all the news we’ve been discussing, it’s pretty easy to miss a poll while taking a break to blink. So here’s a roundup of all the House race polls released since the start of September. If I’ve missed something, let me know. Incumbents are in italics.
| District | Poll | Democrat | % | Republican | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Ivan Moore (9/20-22) | Ethan Berkowitz | 49 | Don Young | 44 |
| AK-AL | Fairleigh Dickinson (9/17-21) | Ethan Berkowitz | 47 | Don Young | 41 |
| AK-AL | Research 2000 (9/15-17) | Ethan Berkowitz | 53 | Don Young | 39 |
| AK-AL | Ivan Moore (8/30-9/2) | Ethan Berkowitz | 54 | Don Young | 37 |
| AL-02 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Bobby Bright | 39 | Jay Love | 56 |
| AL-03 | Capital Survey Research Center (9/30-10/1) | Josh Segall | 36 | Mike Rogers | 45 |
| CA-04 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Charlie Brown | 46 | Tom McClintock | 41 |
| CA-04 | Val Smith (9/22-24) | Charlie Brown | 39 | Tom McClintock | 47 |
| CA-04 | Benenson Strategy Group (8/21-24) | Charlie Brown | 43 | Tom McClintock | 41 |
| CO-04 | Grove Insight (9/8-10) | Betsy Markey | 47 | Marilyn Musgrave | 38 |
| CT-02 | University of Connecticut (9/22-28) | Joe Courtney | 55 | Sean Sullivan | 27 |
| CT-04 | Feldman Group (9/17-18) | Jim Himes | 45 | Chrissy Shays | 45 |
| FL-08 | Kitchens Group (9/3-6) | Alan Grayson | 44 | Ric Keller | 40 |
| FL-09 | Momentum Analysis (9/20-22) | Bill Mitchell | 22 | Gus Bilirakis | 45 |
| FL-10 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/7-11) | Bob Hackworth | 33 | Bill Young | 50 |
| FL-13 | Public Opinion Strategies (10/1) | Christine Jennings | 30 | Vern Buchanan | 46 |
| FL-13 | SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) | Christine Jennings | 33 | Vern Buchanan | 49 |
| FL-13 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Christine Jennings | 31 | Vern Buchanan | 43 |
| FL-13 | Feldman Group (9/22-23) | Christine Jennings | 40 | Vern Buchanan | 44 |
| FL-16 | Tarrance Group (9/7-8) | Tim Mahoney | 48 | Tom Rooney | 41 |
| FL-18 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Annette Taddeo | 36 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | 53 |
| FL-24 | Hamilton Campaigns (9/11-14) | Suzanne Kosmas | 42 | Tom Feeney | 43 |
| FL-25 | Research 2000 (9/23-25) | Joe Garcia | 41 | M. Diaz-Balart | 45 |
| ID-01 | Harstad Strategic Research (9/25-28) | Walt Minnick | 44 | Bill Sali | 38 |
| ID-01 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Walt Minnick | 35 | Bill Sali | 46 |
| ID-01 | Harstad Strategic Research (9/9-11) | Walt Minnick | 43 | Bill Sali | 38 |
| IL-10 | Global Strategy Group (8/17-19) | Dan Seals | 39 | Mark Kirk | 46 |
| IL-10 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/10-11) | Dan Seals | 29 | Mark Kirk | 51 |
| IL-11 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/17-18) | Debbie Halvorson | 38 | Marty Ozinga | 36 |
| IL-11 | Anzalone Liszt (9/14-16) | Debbie Halvorson | 43 | Marty Ozinga | 35 |
| IL-18 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/18-20) | Colleen Callahan | 27 | Aaron Schock | 56 |
| IN-02 | Research 2000 (9/29-30) | Joe Donnelly | 53 | Luke Puckett | 35 |
| IN-03 | Cooper & Secrest (9/9-10) | Mike Montagano | 37 | Mark Souder | 50 |
| IN-09 | SurveyUSA (9/8-10) | Baron Hill | 50 | Mike Sodrel | 39 |
| KY-02 | SurveyUSA (9/24-25) | David Boswell | 43 | Brett Guthrie | 49 |
| KY-02 | Garin Hart Yang (8/23-25) | David Boswell | 41 | Brett Guthrie | 33 |
| KY-03 | SurveyUSA (9/5-7) | John Yarmuth | 53 | Anne Northup | 45 |
| KY-04 | SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1) | Michael Kelley | 36 | Geoff Davis | 58 |
| LA-01 | Kitchens Group (9/18-21) | Jim Harlan | 31 | Steve Scalise | 42 |
| LA-06 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/17-21) | Don Cazayoux | 48 | Bill Cassidy | 32 |
| MD-01 | Grove Insight (9/9-12) | Frank Kratovil | 36 | Andy Harris | 36 |
| ME-01 | Moore Information (9/21-22) | Chellie Pingree | 44 | Charlie Summers | 33 |
| MI-07 | Myers Research (9/23-24) | Mark Schauer | 42 | Tim Walberg | 36 |
| MI-07 | National Research (9/15-16) | Mark Schauer | 40 | Tim Walberg | 50 |
| MI-09 | Grove Insight (8/17-19) | Gary Peters | 41 | Joe Knollenberg | 37 |
| MN-01 | Tarrance Group (9/17-18) | Tim Walz | 50 | Brian Davis | 32 |
| MN-03 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Ashwin Madia | 41 | Erik Paulsen | 44 |
| MO-06 | SurveyUSA (9/17-18) | Kay Barnes | 42 | Sam Graves | 51 |
| MO-09 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Judy Baker | 40 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 49 |
| MO-09 | SurveyUSA (9/1-2) | Judy Baker | 38 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 50 |
| MS-01 | Anzalone Liszt (9/7-10) | Travis Childers | 51 | Greg Davis | 39 |
| NC-08 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/28-29) | Larry Kissell | 54 | Robin Hayes | 43 |
| NC-08 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/23&25) | Larry Kissell | 43 | Robin Hayes | 46 |
| NC-08 | Public Policy Polling (8/25-27) | Larry Kissell | 39 | Robin Hayes | 44 |
| NH-01 | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Carol Shea-Porter | 44 | Jeb Bradley | 43 |
| NH-01 | UNH (9/14-21) | Carol Shea-Porter | 42 | Jeb Bradley | 45 |
| NH-02 | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Paul Hodes | 47 | Jennifer Horn | 34 |
| NH-02 | UNH (9/14-21) | Paul Hodes | 38 | Jennifer Horn | 26 |
| NH-02 | Anzalone-Liszt (9/14-18) | Paul Hodes | 50 | Jennifer Horn | 32 |
| NH-02 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) | Paul Hodes | 43 | Jennifer Horn | 39 |
| NJ-02 | Zogby International (9/18-20) | David Kurkowski | 26 | Frank LoBiondo | 62 |
| NJ-03 | Zogby International (9/18-20) | John Adler | 37 | Chris Myers | 39 |
| NJ-03 | McLaughlin & Associates (9/8-9) | John Adler | 29 | Chris Myers | 33 |
| NJ-05 | Research 2000 (9/17-18) | Dennis Shulman | 34 | Scott Garrett | 49 |
| NJ-07 | Anzalone Liszt (8/20-25) | Linda Stender | 36 | Leonard Lance | 33 |
| NM-01 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/22-23) | Martin Heinrich | 48 | Darren White | 42 |
| NM-01 | SurveyUSA (8/26-28) | Martin Heinrich | 51 | Darren White | 46 |
| NM-02 | Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) | Harry Teague | 47 | Ed Tinsley | 43 |
| NM-02 | Hamilton Campaigns (9/2-5) | Harry Teague | 46 | Ed Tinsley | 41 |
| NV-03 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/23-24) | Dina Titus | 39 | Jon Porter | 41 |
| NV-03 | Anzalone Liszt (9/21-24) | Dina Titus | 46 | Jon Porter | 37 |
| NY-26 | SurveyUSA (9/24-25) | Alice Kryzan | 37 | Chris Lee | 48 |
| NY-26 | Brilliant Corners Research (9/15-17) | Alice Kryzan | 39 | Chris Lee | 29 |
| OH-01 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Steve Driehaus | 44 | Steve Chabot | 46 |
| OH-02 | Research 2000 (9/30-10/1) | Vic Wulsin | 39 | Jean Schmidt | 46 |
| OH-02 | Momentum Analysis (9/29-30) | Vic Wulsin | 36 | Jean Schmidt | 37 |
| OH-02 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Vic Wulsin | 40 | Jean Schmidt | 48 |
| OH-02 | Tarrance Group (9/8-9) | Vic Wulsin | 36 | Jean Schmidt | 52 |
| OH-15 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | Mary Jo Kilroy | 47 | Steve Stivers | 42 |
| OH-16 | SurveyUSA (9/19-21) | John Boccieri | 49 | Kirk Schuring | 41 |
| PA-03 | SurveyUSA (9/26-28) | Kathy Dahlkemper | 49 | Phil English | 45 |
| PA-04 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/17-18) | Jason Altmire | 49 | Melissa Hart | 44 |
| PA-06 | Public Opinion Strategies (8/19-21) | Bob Roggio | 28 | Jim Gerlach | 57 |
| PA-10 | Momentum Analysis (9/29-10/1) | Chris Carney | 50 | Chris Hackett | 36 |
| PA-10 | Lycoming College (9/21-25) | Chris Carney | 46 | Chris Hackett | 36 |
| PA-10 | Momentum Analysis (8/19-21) | Chris Carney | 54 | Chris Hackett | 27 |
| PA-11 | Grove Insight (9/14-15) | Paul Kanjorski | 48 | Lou Barletta | 39 |
| PA-11 | Franklin & Marshall (9/9-14) | Paul Kanjorski | 35 | Lou Barletta | 44 |
| TX-07 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/7-9) | Michael Skelly | 37 | John Culberson | 44 |
| TX-10 | Goodwin Simon Victoria (9/28-30) | Larry Joe Doherty | 38 | Mike McCaul | 43 |
| VA-02 | Bennett Petts Normington (9/21-22) | Glenn Nye | 40 | Thelma Drake | 45 |
| WA-08 | SurveyUSA (9/7-9) | Darcy Burner | 44 | Dave Reichert | 54 |
| WI-08 | Public Opinion Strategies (9/16-17) | Steve Kagen | 46 | John Gard | 45 |
| WY-AL | Research 2000 (9/22-24) | Gary Trauner | 42 | Cynthia Lummis | 42 |
It’s primary day in Louisiana, and polls will close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern. We’ll have a results thread up later. There are two key races worth watching, which Crisitunity wrote about last month (before the primaries were postponed due to Hurricane Gustav):
LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.
The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.
LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.
The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.
While these races are almost certainly set to go to runoffs, does anyone care to guess who will be the top two in each district? And how large of a share of the vote will “Dollar” Bill Jefferson pull in?