Month: November 2008

Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 51 (48)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (45)

Christopher Cole (L): 3 (4)

(MoE: ±2.1%)

Kay Hagan has opened up a nice lead — one that is well outside of this poll’s miniscule margin of error, leading PPP’s Tom Jensen to declare that Dole’s “Godless Americans” attacks have “blown up in her face”. Good.

In a great sign for Hagan, she leads Dole by 56-41 among early voters (63% of the sample), while Obama leads McCain by 55-45 among those who have already cast a ballot. Obama is locked in a neck-and-neck race with McCain in this state (leading by only 50-49 overall), so Hagan’s strong early performance looks like it will be enough to carry her through election day. SSP is updating our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic.

The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled “Red Dawn” published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State.  It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide.  Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.

Democrats: 45%

Republicans: 32.5%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 23.5%.

Turnout Projection: 80-85%.  We’re at about 54% as of yesterday in Multnomah County, which closely parallels the state as a whole (http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2008-11/turnout.shtml).  Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans by 7% and Independents/Third Party Members are lagging well behind that pace.  As of now, just less than half of the votes cast in Oregon have been cast by Democrats.  I doubt that margin will hold but if we end up anywhere close to that it will be a very good night.  FYI, there is not a single county in the state currently where a higher percentage of Republicans have voted than Democrats.

This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.

How to Watch OR Results:

There are four good places to track Oregon’s results:

Official SOS vote tracker-http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/.  Note: There is no link there yet but it will go active on election night at 8 PM.  This is the best statewide results tracker.

KGW (Portland’s NBC affiliate)-http://www.kgw.com/.  Widely considered the best in Portland, KGW often does live streams of its election results broadcasts.

The Oregonian-http://www.oregonlive.com/-Oregon’s largest statewide paper, based in Portland.

The Register-Guard-http://www.registerguard.com/web/news/index.csp-The leading paper in Eugene, Oregon’s second largest city.

Results Reporting:

Results will typically be released on the following schedule (all times Pacific):

8 PM-Ballots due, Multnomah County releases its first count (ballots cast before Monday night), expect this result to be skewed in Obama’s favor.

9-9:30 PM-Major counting completed of ballots cast prior to Monday/Tuesday in most counties.  Results are typically updated every 30-60 minutes.

11 PM-Most results apparent.  If the margin is 3% or less we may have to wait overnight but anything more than that they’ll have called it by now.

12 PM Wednesday-Count completed by this time.

FYI, exit polling IS conducted via phone survey, so you can expect a call on the Presidential race at least AT 8 PM.

Things to watch for:

Washington and Clackamas Counties-If either goes blue, Merkley will win the Senate race, period.  I’m betting Washington does and Clackamas will be close.

36 State House Seats-Thanks to one of our crazy ballot measures in the 90s, you need a 3/5 majority in the legislature to pass revenue increases.  We have that in the Senate and will not lose it.  We need a net gain of 5 (which is I would say very possible) to get it in the State house.

Dark House State House races-There are always 1 or 2 that no one expects to be close but are (the races in Medford and the Dalles last time were and Minnis’s seat was shockingly close in 2004).  They are almost never actual upsets but this year they may be.

Projected Results:

For a more detailed description of results, read my prior diary: How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.  All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s party formed to get him on the ballot).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Key:

x-=Pickup.

l-=Loss.

Statewide Candidates:

US President-Obama (D).

US Senate=x-Merkley (D).

Secretary of State-Brown (D).

Attorney General-Kroger (D).

State Treasurer-Westlund (D).

Labor Commissioner-Avakian (Nonpartisan Office).

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Explanation of Special Case for Measures 57/61: Once it became apparent to the legislature last year that what is now known as Measure 61 would qualify and would likely pass, they referred their own alternative (Measure 57) to the ballot.  In order to deal with conflicts should both pass (as many, if not most, consider likely), the legislature put a clause in Measure 57 stating that if both pass, the one with more yes votes becomes law while the other fails.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Projection: Pass.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Projection: Pass.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Projection: Pass.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Projection: Pass with more votes than Measure 61, thus becoming law.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor home modifications (costing less than $35k) without a permit.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Projection: Fail, narrowly.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc).

District 2: Walden (R-inc).

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc).

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc).

District 5: Schrader (D).

Oregon Legislature:

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in.  I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Competitive Races:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinnville)-Boquist (R).

*27 (Bend)-l-Telfer (R).

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Projected Pickups (all D):

*26 (Wilsonville)-x-Adamson (D).

*37 (West Linn)-x-Eberle (D).

*49 (Gresham)-x-Kahl (D).

*50 (Fairview)-x-Matthews (D).

*51 (Clackamas)-x-Barton (D).

*52 (Corbett)-x-VanOrman (D).

*54 (Bend)-x-Stiegler (D).

Projected Holds (D or R):

Note: These are all possible takeovers by the opposition party.  I am merely stating that I think they are more likely to be holds than takeovers, although in some cases, like the Canby seat, it will be very close.

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

*30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

*39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

This post summarizes James Hell’s amazing work since August tracking independent expenditures on House races. Note that this does not include direct expenditures by party committees (like we saw the other day from the DCCC in NJ-05 & FL-18) or electioneering communications by 527’s like Freedom’s Crotch (the FEC’s database is all but unnavigable).

We do, however, include spending by many third-party groups, not just the DCCC and NRCC. In fact, we’ve tracked spending by forty-six different organizations, some of which you’ve heard of, many of which are obscure. The list includes the Veterans of Foreign Wars, the Safari Club, SEIU, the National Association of Realtors, the Michigan Republican Party and many, many more. (Scroll down to the key at the bottom for the complete list.)

And all of these groups made choices, whether to support Team Red or Team Blue. Some supported both. At the end of the day, though, Democrats completely and utterly swamped the field. Here’s a brief run-down of the sixty-nine districts which saw serious spending this cycle (note: we excluded a handful of districts where aggregate spending was under about $20K):

Total spending on Dem-held seats:

     Blue: $18,588,000

     Red: $6,035,000

Total spending on GOP-held seats:

     Blue: $66,849,000

     Red: $22,898,000

Total spending on all seats:

     Blue: $85,437,000

     Red: $28,933,000

Below the fold are two tables of district-by-district spending. The first lists Dem-held seats, the second lists GOP-held seats. Both are sorted by total amount spent in the district. Note that averages only take into account seats where a side actually spent money.

Spending in Dem-held seats:

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/16-18 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 39 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (41)

Dean Barkley (I): 16 (18)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/26-27 in parens):

Ashwin Madia (D): 41 (44)

Erik Paulsen (R-inc): 46 (45)

David Dillon (IP): 10 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/20-21 in parens):

Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 45 (47)

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 46 (44)

Bob Anderson (IP): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA has had some of the kindest numbers for Republicans this cycle in Minnesota, and their latest statewide polling is no exception — Obama only leads McCain by 49-46 here. The Pollster.com composite has Obama leading McCain by 13 points. Either all the other pollsters are wildly wrong, or SUSA has some serious issues with their Minnesota methodology. I’m leaning towards the latter.

One thing in particular is worth noting: the kids just can’t enough of the GOP. Paulsen leads Madia by 46-37 among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, and Bachmann leads Tinklenberg by 49-39 in this age bracket. (In the statewide sample, they break by 56-40 for Obama and 44-37 for Franken.) We’ve seen this phenomenon fairly regularly in SUSA’s Minnesota polling.

Of all these numbers, the 6th CD top lines do seem the most believable — it’s perhaps not hard to imagine Bachmann’s Hardball backlash fading a bit in this R+5 district, but SUSA’s overall Republican bias in Minnesota leaves me skeptical of this entire package.

The Siena College Research Institute has released a final batch of ten New York State Senate polls in the last few days. Here they are:

SD-03 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Brian Foley (D): 56 (40)

Caesar Trunzo (R-inc): 34 (46)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-06 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kristen McElroy (D): 30

Kemp Hannon (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±4.8)

SD-07 (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Craig Johnson (D-inc): 50 (49)

Barbara Donno (R): 35 (25)

(MoE: ±4.8)

SD-15 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Joseph Addabbo Jr. (D): 45 (42)

Serphin Maltese (R-inc): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-37: (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/30-10/05 in parens):

Suzi Oppenheimer (D-inc): 64 (61)

Liz Feld (R): 29 (24)

(MoE: ±4.8)

SD-48 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Darrel Aubertine (D-inc): 49 (51)

David Renzi (R): 38 (31)

(MoE: ±4.6)

SD-56 (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Richard Dollinger (D): 39 (38)

Joe Robach (R-inc): 52 (49)

(MoE: ±4.6)

SD-58 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/30-10/05 in parens):

William Stachowski (D-inc): 47 (36)

Dennis Delano (R): 43 (49)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-59 (10/27-29, likely voters, 9/30-10/5 in parens):

Kathy Konst (D): 39 (33)

Dale Volker (R-inc): 50 (50)

(MoE: ±4.9)

SD-61 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):

Joseph Mesi (D): 42 (40)

Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 47 (38)

(MoE: ±4.9)

UPDATE by Crisitunity: If these predictions hold, this would see the Democrats picking up the New York State Senate by the barest majority, by gaining two seats (right now it’s 31-29 for the Republicans, with 2 vacancies which are split between the two parties and likely to remain that way). They would pick up the GOP seats of Caesar Trunzo in SD-03 in Long Island’s Suffolk County (who led Brian Foley by a decent margin in the last poll) and Serphin Maltese in SD-15 in Queens (who was tied with Joe Addabbo in the previous poll).

Much of rest of the action is in the Buffalo area: there’s at least one other possible pickup, SD-61, a Republican-held open seat where Joe Mesi led Michael Ranzenhofer previously but now trails by 5. Kathy Konst has made up a lot of ground in SD-59, but is still down by 11. The one seat where the Dems are engaged in a difficult defense is SD-58, where Dem incumbent William Stachowski was down by 13 against suspended Buffalo PD detective Dennis Delano, but now leads by 4. As you can see, there’s a lot of volatility, not just because we’re dealing with small sample sizes, but also the difficulty in general in polling state legislature races. But it looks like, after decades of futility, the Dems are in position to take over the New York state senate.

And here’s part 2.

By the way, the results of my predictions are:

Senate: +8

House: +35 (+38-3)

Governorships: +1 (Missouri)

President EV: 252 + 9(CO) + 27(FL) + 7(IA) + 11(MO) + 15(NC) + 5(NM) + 5(NV) + 20(OH) + 13(VA) = 364 EV

These predictions do NOT count the LA-04 general election, the projected GA-Sen runoff, or a legislature-decided Vermont governorship.  (Thus, there is a possible +9 Senate, +37 House, and +2 governorships if you count Pollina as a Democrat (or Symington if she actually wins by legislature).)

PART TWO: Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Wyoming

MS-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

MS-Sen*: down-dash, lean R, R keep (OH HOW I WISH AND HOPE I AM WRONG ABOUT THIS)

MS-01: up-dash, likely D, D keep

MS-03: down, likely R, R keep

MT-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NC-Pres: dash, tossup, D gain (+15 EV)

NC-Sen: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 Senate) (widest margin of NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NC-Gov)

NC-05: down-dash, lean R, R keep (though once again, I’d love to be wrong about this)

NC-08: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

NC-10: down-dash, lean R, R keep (same comment as for NC-05)

NC-Gov: dash, tossup, D hold (closest of NC-Pres, NC-Sen, and NC-Gov)

ND-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NE-Sen: down, likely R, R keep (aww…Kleeb should have run again in NE-03)

NE-02Pres: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 EV)

NE-02: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NH-Pres: up-dash, likely D, D keep

NH-Sen: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

NH-01: up-dash, lean D, D keep

NH-02: up, likely D, D keep

NJ-Sen: up, safe D, D keep

NJ-03: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NJ-04: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NJ-05: down-dash, tossup, R keep

NJ-07: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NM-Pres: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+5 EV)

NM-Sen: up, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

NM-01: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

NM-02: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NM-03: up, safe D, D keep

NV-Pres: dash, lean D, D gain (+5 EV)

NV-02: down-dash, leans R, R keep (unfortunately, though of course I’d love to be wrong)

NV-03: dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

NY-13: (double?) up, safe D, D gain (+1 House)

NY-19: up, likely D, D keep

NY-20: up, likely D, D keep

NY-24: up, safe D, D keep

NY-25: up, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

NY-26: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NY-29: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

OH-Pres: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+20 EV)

OH-01: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

OH-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

OH-03: down-dash, tossup, R keep (this might be a dark horse, and I hope I’m wrong!)

OH-07: dash, tossup, R keep (same comment as for OH-03)

OH-12: down, lean R, R keep

OH-14: down-dash, lean R, R keep (same comment as for OH-03)

OH-15: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

OH-16: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

OK-Sen: down, likely R, R keep (DAMN YOU INHOFE)

OK-01: down, likely R, R keep (sorry)

OR-Pres: up, safe D, D keep

OR-Sen: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 Senate)

OR-05: up, safe D, D keep

PA-Pres: up, likely D, D keep

PA-03: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

PA-04: up, likely D, D keep

PA-05: down-dash, tossup, R keep

PA-06: down, likely R, R keep

PA-07: up, likely D, D keep

PA-08: up, safe D, D keep

PA-10: up-dash, likely D, D keep

PA-11: down-dash, lean R, R gain (-1 House)

PA-12: up-dash, lean D, D keep (whew?)

PA-15: down-dash, tossup, R keep (but what if I’m wrong? 🙂 )

PA-18: down, lean R, R keep

RI-none: (sorry, no competitive federal-level or gubernatorial races in Rhode Island)

SC-Pres: down, likely R, R keep

SC-Sen: down, lean R, R keep (if Conley wins, something strange will have happened)

SC-01: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I really hope I’m wrong about this one too!  Politics1 predicts that I will be!)

SC-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

SD-Pres: down, likely R, R keep

TX-Pres: down-dash, likely R, R keep

TX-Sen: down-dash, lean R, R keep (disappointing…)

TX-07: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I wish otherwise)

TX-10: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I wish otherwise too, and this might be more likely to flip than TX-07)

TX-22: down-dash, tossup, R gain (-1 House) (I REALY HOPE I’M WRONG-GO LAMPSON!!!)

TX-23: up, safe D, D keep

UT-02: up, safe D, D keep

VA-Pres: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+13 EV)

VA-Sen: double up, safe D, D gain (+1 Senate)

VA-02: dash, tossup, R keep (I hope otherwise!)

VA-05: down-dash, tossup, R keep (same comment as for VA-02)

VA-10: dash, tossup, R keep (same comment as for VA-10, and I can’t rank these three either)

VA-11: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

VT-Gov: down, likely R, R keep? (based on whether Douglas gets over 50% and if not the leg. decides)

WA-Pres: up, safe D, D keep

WA-02: up, safe D, D keep

WA-04: down, likely R, R keep

WA-08: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

WA-Gov: dash, lean D, D keep

WI-Pres: up, safe D, D keep

WI-08: up, likely D, D keep

WV-Pres: down-dash, likely R, R keep

WV-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep (again, I’d love to be wrong!)

WY-Sen: (double?) down, safe R, R keep

WY-AL: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House) (this is a hard one to predict, and I think it’ll be a small margin for either D or R…and I’m gonna guess D)

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on two House races:

• NE-02: Lean Republican to Tossup
• TX-10: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Look for our writeups to follow soon. Our full race ratings chart is available here.

UPDATE: One more change:

• NC-08: Tossup to Lean Democratic

I put my predictions in the following format:

State-race (# of EV if presidential): margin, chance, result (change from Democratic perspective) (comments, if any)

Margin terms: up, up-dash, dash, down-dash, down.  These reflect my written shorthand.  An up-arrow (“up”) refers to a margin of 8 points or more for the Democrat.  An up-arrow with a dash through the tail (“up-dash”) means a margin of about 2-7 points in the Democrat’s favor.  A dash (“dash”) means a margin closer than that, or basically a toss-up.  (Substitute “Republican” for “Democrat” when you see “down” instead of “up”).

Chance terms: I use the same terms as SSP: “safe” means I can’t see a reasonable chance for the other party to win (barring something really crazy happening, basically); “likely” means that I feel I can safely predict that outcome but would be vulnerable to a strong challenge from the other side; “lean” means I feel that that side has only a narrow advantage; “tossup” means I think both sides are about evenly matched.

Result: “keep” means the incumbent party retains the seat; “gain” means the winning party wins the seat from the other side.  “change from Democratic perspective” means that “+1 House” refers to a gain of one Democratic House seat while “-1 House” refers to the loss of one Democratic House seat.

And before I begin: Be sure to join me (and hopefully other SSP people!) on IRC on election night!  Once again, our chat room is #swingstateproject on the Chat4All network (irc.chat4all.org).  Hope to see you there!

Edit: Added LA-02.

Now, here we go!  (below the fold)  Part 2 coming soon, before the end of the day!

PART ONE: Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri

AK-Pres: down, safe R, R keep

AK-Sen: up, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

AK-AL: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

AL-02: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

AL-03: down-dash, lean R, R keep

AL-05: up-dash, lean D, D keep

AR-Pres: down, likely R, R keep

AZ-Pres: down-dash, lean D, R keep

AZ-01: up, lean D, D gain (+1 House) (where are the polls?)

AZ-03: down-dash, lean R, R keep

AZ-05: up, safe D, D keep

AZ-08: up, safe D, D keep

CA-03: down-dash, lean R, R keep

CA-04: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House) (You’ll be a winning candidate, Charlie Brown!)

CA-11: up, safe D, D keep

CA-26: down-dash, likely R, R keep

CA-42: down, safe R, R keep

CA-44: down, safe R, R keep

CA-45: down, safe R, R keep

CA-46: dash, lean R, R keep (sorry, but I think it’s unlikely.  but I’d LOVE to be wrong about this!)

CA-50: down-dash, lean R, R keep

CO-Pres: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+9 EV)

CO-Sen: up, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

CO-04: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

CO-05: down-dash, likely R, R keep

CO-06: down-dash, safe R, R keep

CT-02: up, safe D, D keep

CT-04: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

CT-05: up, likely D, D keep

CT-GA-014: down, likely R, R keep (this is my state house district!  I’m voting for Kathy Hale!  I have no polling data so this is just a basic guess, but I hope I’m wrong!)

DE-AL: down, safe R, R keep (nope, not this year)

DE-Gov: up, safe D, D keep

FL-Pres: dash, toss-up, D gain (+27 EV)

FL-05: down, safe R, R keep

FL-06: down, safe R, R keep

FL-07: down-dash, safe R, R keep

FL-08: dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

FL-09: down, safe R, R keep

FL-10: down, safe R, R keep

FL-12: down-dash, safe R, R keep

FL-13: down-dash, likely R, R keep

FL-15: down, likely R, R keep

FL-16: double down, safe R, R gain (-1 House)

FL-18: down-dash, tossup, R keep (again, I’d love to be wrong!)

FL-21: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

FL-24: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

FL-25: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

GA-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

GA-Sen: dash, tossup, runoff (I’m not predicting runoff results at this time)

GA-01: down-dash, lean R, R keep (again, I’d love to be wrong!)

GA-03: down, likely R, R keep (so much for Mr. “Uppity”‘s come-uppance)

GA-06: down-dash, likely R, R keep

GA-08: up-dash, likely D, D keep

GA-12: up, likely D, D keep

HI-none: (sorry, no competitive federal-level or gubernatorial races in Hawaii)

IA-Pres: up, safe D, D gain (+7 EV)

IA-04: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IA-05: dash, lean R, R keep

ID-Sen: down, likely R, R keep

ID-01: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IL-06: down-dash, lean R, R keep

IL-08: up, likely D, D keep

IL-10: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IL-11: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

IL-13: down-dash, likely R, R keep

IL-14: up-dash, likely D, D keep

IL-18: down, likely R, R keep

IN-Pres: down-dash, tossup, R keep

IN-02: up, safe D, D keep

IN-03: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

IN-04: down-dash, lean R, R keep

IN-06: down-dash, lean R, R keep

IN-07: up, safe D, D keep

IN-08: up, safe D, D keep

IN-09: up, likely D, D keep

IN-Gov: down-dash, likely R, R keep

KS-Sen: down, likely R, R keep

KS-02: up-dash, lean D, D keep

KS-03: up-dash, likely D, D keep

KY-Sen: down-dash, lean R, R keep (OH HOW I’D LOVE TO BE WRONG)

KY-01: down-dash, likely R, R keep

KY-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

KY-03: up, likely D, D keep

KY-04: down, likely R, R keep

LA-Sen: up, likely D, D keep

LA-01: down-dash, lean R, R keep (and I’d love to be wrong here too!)

LA-02: up, safe D, D keep (the point of this race is whether Moreno can succeed in defeating the indicted Jefferson; Jefferson seems likely to win at this point, unfortunately)

LA-04: general election occurs later

LA-06: up-dash, likely D, D keep

LA-07: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I have no polling on this race…)

MA-Sen: double up, safe D, D keep

MD-01: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

ME-Sen: down, likely R, R keep

ME-01: up, likely D, D keep

MI-Pres: up, likely D, D keep

MI-07: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

MI-08: down, likely R, R keep

MI-09: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

MN-Pres: up, likely D, D keep

MN-Sen: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 Senate)

MN-01: up, likely D, D keep

MN-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

MN-03: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

MN-06: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

MO-Pres: dash, tossup, D gain (+11 EV)

MO-06: down-dash, likely R, R keep

MO-09: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

Research & Polling Inc for the Albuquerque Journal (10/28-30, likely voters, 9/29-10/2 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 47 (43)

Darren White (R): 43 (41)

Undecided: 10 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

The undecideds are breaking for Heinrich, and I’d expect that they will continue to do so on election day in this D+2.4 district. NRCC Chair Tom Cole may have promised Darren White the moon last fall, but his candidacy was a mistake.

And over in the 2nd District…

Research & Polling Inc for the Albuquerque Journal (10/28-30, likely voters):

Harry Teague (D): 45

Ed Tinsley (R): 41

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±5%)

Lots of undecideds still on the table here, but it’s pretty troubling for Republicans that Tinsley hasn’t locked more of the vote down, especially with the news that Tinsley canceled his last week of broadcast television advertising. Harry Teague may just be on track for a narrow win here on Tuesday.

(Hat-tip: New Mexico FBIHOP)