Month: November 2008

This does not look good.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/30-11/2, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 45

Lou Barletta (R): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

The top of the ticket isn’t a problem for Kanjorski here — Obama is leading McCain by 53-43 in this CD (a better margin than Kerry’s 6-point win here in 2004).

While 2006 was a bloodless year for Democrats, 2008 doesn’t look quite as clean — Mahoney is a certain goner, and the GOP could pick up another couple of seats if they’re lucky, including this one. Kanjo has simply run a tired campaign that embodied politics as usual. He is poised to be the rare Dem victim of the “change” mantra tomorrow.

Hays Research Group (11/2, likely voters):

Mark Begich (D): 49

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 42

Other: 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And for the at-large House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49

Don Young (R-inc): 43

Other: 1

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Sounds about right to me. The fact that these two crumb-bums (Young and Stevens) are polling even in the low 40s is a testament to just how crusty of a GOP-loving state Alaska is.

But here’s a fun bonus finding: the McCain/Palin ticket leads Obama/Biden by only 48-45 according to this poll. Amusing!

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 49 (47)

Pat McCrory (R): 48 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 2 (5)

(MoE: ±2.1%)

The same North Carolina PPP sample that showed Kay Hagan administering the coup de grace to Elizabeth Dole (and a neck-and-neck race in the NC presidential race) also includes the governor’s race and the rest of the Council of State. Perdue has led in most polls for the last few weeks, but this final poll sees a closer margin as undecideds finally commit; both candidates’ numbers have gone up, but McCrory has gained faster (seemingly helped along by a plunge in Libertarian Michael Munger’s support). With the Washington governor’s race close but seemingly frozen in place, this will be the gubernatorial race to watch tomorrow.

Five Council of State races are also polled; it’s a mixed bag, although with a possible pickup at Auditor:

Lt. Governor: Walter Dalton (D) 49, Robert Pittenger (R) 41

Insurance Comm.: Wayne Goodwin (D) 47, John Odom (R) 41

Auditor: Beth Wood (D) 48, Leslie Merritt (R-inc) 46

Agriculture Comm.: Steve Troxler (R-inc) 51, Ronnie Ansley (D) 43

Labor Comm.: Cherie Berry (R-inc) 51, Mary Fant Donnan (D) 44

Univ. of Washington (10/27-30, registered voters, 10/18-26 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (51)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±5%)

This, my friends, is change you can xerox. University of Washington gets the last word in polling the Washington governor’s race, and rather than make a bold statement like the 6-point lead they saw several weeks ago, they’ve settled on the exact same 50-48 result that SurveyUSA and Rasmussen reported last week. (Strategic Vision, always the unpredictable rogues, went with 49-47 instead.) Unsurprisingly, the final Pollster composite for this race is 50-48.

Ordinarily, a 2-point lead going into election day would be ominous, but given how flat the trendlines have been all year and how dug-in voters’ heels seem to be, Gregoire can probably start breathing a little easier. As a bonus, Obama leads McCain 51-39 in the same sample.  

PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 46

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48

Allen Buckley (L): 4

(MoE: ±2.8%)

SurveyUSA for WMAZ (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (46)

Allen Buckley (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Two new polls of the Georgia senate race seem to confirm that, unless something weird happens, neither candidate is going to clear the 50% mark and we’ll be faced with a December runoff. The race has become remarkably stable in the last few weeks, with Martin never leading but almost always within a few points.

There’s a fierce race at the top of the ticket, too; PPP’s first poll of Georgia also finds Obama trailing only 50-48 (with Barr picking up a measly 2%), but with Obama leading 52-47 among early voters. SurveyUSA finds McCain up 52-45.

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Tom Perriello (D): 47 (42)

Virgil Goode (R-inc): 50 (55)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

Whoa. Tom Perriello has made some amazing strides since August, when a previous SUSA poll showed him trailing by a brutal 64-30 margin. The DCCC has come in here with over $700K of mostly unanswered expenditures in support of Perriello, and it looks like they’ve pushed this district within reach.

Perriello has built an impressive 58-35 edge among early voters, but unfortunately, that’s only 10% of the sample. A lot will come down to election day turnout here. SUSA pegs the black vote at 22%, which is in line with the most recent census figures, but if African-Americans turn out with even greater force, that might tip the scales here.

There really isn’t a lot left to say as we head into the final 24 hours of the campaign.  First, and most important, Kelly, Amanda and I want to thank everyone who has helped in any way with the campaign.  The one thing I will take away from this experience, regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, is the people I’ve met, the communities I’ve visited and the stories we’ve shared.

It has also been encouraging how many people have stepped up over the last 2 weeks to help with donations to the campaign.  Once our opponent got desperate and decided to go negative there were many people and organizations who stepped up and sent in late donations.  These late donations allowed us to expand our media advertising and create a second TV ad to combat the distortions coming from our opponent’s campaign.  

I think once they realized they offered no ideas or solutions for the 5th district, the only way they could win was to trot out the usual wedge issues and scare the voters into thinking I’m someone that I’m not.  Now we know how Barack Obama feels.

I want to close out this campaign on a positive note.  

Keep encouraging everyone you know to get out and vote on Tuesday.  Remind them that while the top of the ballot for President is the race everyone is interested in, the next most important race is the 5th district race.  This is our chance to reverse 8 years of bad policy and take our future back.   Tuesday will be historical and we can be part of it by sending a Democrat to Congress from the 5th district for the first time in 30 years.  Most important to remember — the Democratic message throughout the long campaign has been a positive one stressing HOPE and CHANGE.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

I participated in several additional debates / forums with the other 2 candidates for the 5th district seat this week.   There was really nothing new to report as both my opponents stayed on script with the expected answers to the usual questions.   After going through this process, I am pleased that we did so many debates across the 5th district.   Voters across the district had many opportunities to come out and see the candidates in person and hear where we stand on the issues.  

We had a great GOTV rally in Clarion on Saturday with a nice turnout of people from the Clarion area including members of the Clarion University Young Democrats and members from the IUPAT union.  I was honored to share the stage with PA House candidate Matt Ellenberger, Clarion County Democratic Chairman Bill Miller and IUPAT National President James Williams.

I had 2 big highlights this week — Meeting former President Bill Clinton in State College and meeting our next Vice President, Senator Joe Biden at a rally in Williamsport.

Mark meets and receives the endorsement of Bill Clinton.

Meeting our next VP Joe Biden in Williamsport.

It was an honor to meet both of these great men and it is something I will always remember.  I learned that Senator Biden and I have something in common.  He also served as a county commissioner in Delaware before he was elected to the United States Senate.  

Here is a picture from the rally in Williamsport that appeared in the Lock Haven newspaper.

The gathering in Williamsport.

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 7 PM —  DuBois Democratic Committee Meeting

Tuesday  — Election Day

Wednesday & Beyond — To Be Decided by the Voters in the 5th District.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Let me tell ya something: the Ohio Electoral college vote (20) and one or maybe even two of the U.S. House races might NOT be decided on Tuesday.

They will be so close that it will go the provisional ballots which will not be counted for two weeks.

You cannot believe how close the race is here… AGAIN.

Good things to know: In 2006, Governor Ted Strickland carried many, MANY precincts AND counties (ours, for example) that had been controlled by the GOP for 12 years. Under our screwy election laws, this means that we now control the deciding votes of all of those precinct poll workers and county boards of election. (Half Dems, half GOP, tie breaker to us.)

Because we now control the “presiding Judge” in all of the precincts that Ted carried, many people might get to vote OR might avoid being forced to vote a provisional ballot, who in the past, might have been hassled.

The big problem here has been that FAR too many people were discouraged from voting on Election Day OR were unnecessarily forced to vote with a provo ballot. Having Democrats making the deciding “on the spot” judgment, might reduce both of those problems.

HOWEVER, on the other hand, this election will attract MANY more would be voters than usual, and many of them are those who will run afoul of our idiotic GOP mandated I.D. and proof of residency rules.

If the outcome of the Ohio Electoral college vote is in doubt (or any U.S. House races) expect billable hours for GOP lawyers to be in the millions.

This is the first presidential election under Ohio’s new “no excuse needed” early and absentee ballot law. Early turnout has been steady. There was excellent turnout during our one week window in October when you could both register and vote on one trip to the board of elections. Then as the election has gotten closer, there have been mounting numbers of early voters.

In addition, we have a GREAT Democrat as Secretary of State. The GOP has filed a slew of court actions to try and manipulate the election, but they have LOST every time. So, in the end the forces of Truth and Goodness will prevail.

But it won’t be Tuesday night.

Which means, we might not have a decision on the Presidency OR the U.S. House for weeks, maybe more.

But having Judge Brunner in control of our state voting apparatus is a Good Thing. Her solid competence has stopped the GOP vote suppression effort, in it’s tracks, again and again.

The newspaper that couldn’t be bothered to endorse anybody (who could have predicted early voting?) says:

The position of Jack Kingston is equally precarious. Kingston’s support is exactly 50 percent with almost one in four registered voters undecided, according to the survey, making a runoff in Georgia’s First Congressional District with challenger Bill Gillespie a possibility.

Valdosta Daily Times on a telephone survey of 453 random phone numbers (margin of error 4.6%) in Lowndes County on 16-26 October by the Center for Applied Research (CAR) at Valdosta State University (VSU), Professor James LaPlant.

I have the whole poll, and among respondents who said they’d already voted, Kingston was below 50%. This is ignominious for Kingston, who in 2006 got 59% against 41% for Democrat Jim Nelson in Lowndes County.

Much more here.