Month: April 2009

Public Policy Polling (4/8-11, registered voters, 12/8-9 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 41 (39)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 37 (34)

Mike McIntyre (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 39

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP seems to be on a quest to test every conceivable Dem against Richard Burr, and this time they threw 7th CD Rep. Mike McIntyre into the mix; despite being unknown to over half the state, McIntyre posts the best performance of any Dem against Burr in PPP’s polling other than state Attorney General Roy Cooper. While McIntyre has not expressed any interest in the Senate race, he would bring some regional strength in a hypothetical match-up; in a head-to-head against Burr, he leads the Republican by 48-33 in Southeastern NC, while Burr and Cooper are tied at 40-40 there.

Still, Cooper is undoubtedly our best bet for this race. He sports a solid 41-20 favorable rating (much better than Burr’s tepid 35-31 rating), and destroys Burr among moderate voters by a 56-21 margin. For those keeping score, this marks the third poll (of four publicly-released ones) showing Cooper in the lead. Luckily for us, Cooper will make a decision on this race “very soon“.

Unbelievable news today in the Georgia governor’s race as Republican front runner and current Lt. Governor Casey Cagle drops out of the race.

http://blogs.ajc.com/gold-dome…

Cagle told reporters he has had back and neck pain for several years, but it progressed during the 2009 session to the point where he had some paralysis. He tried therapy, but was advised that he needed surgery.

“I’ve been diagnosed with some serious nerve and bone problems and a degenerative spinal condition,” he told reporters at a Capitol news conference.  ” The issue could be hereditary or it could be the result of an old injury, but the unfortunate reality is that it requires immediate surgical treatment.”

 

While the “back problems” may have sealed the deal for Cagle there are also rumors circulating that he may have had an alleged affair with a female staffer in his office. This announcement however makes any investigation into that largely irrelevant.

This is great news for Georgia Democrats as this moves the race from what I would call a Lean GOP to a true tossup as no other GOP contenders really stand out at the top of their field of 3 (Insurance Commissioner Oxendine has many ethical questions surrounding him and SOS Karen Handel is hated for the partisan hackery she displayed in the 2008 elections and viewed as pretty inept the other candidate is a non name state representative from rural south GA).

Democrats also have a contested primary with former Adj. General David Poythress, State Minority leader Dubose Porter and Attorney General Thurbert Baker in the mix.

Special Teabaggers’ edition of the digest…

• NY-20 (pdf): The morning update on the NY-20 absentee count finds Scott Murphy padding his skimpy lead a bit, up to 168. There was a partial report of absentees from Warren County (one of the strongholds of the Murphy clan), and the expected report from Saratoga County (Tedisco country) didn’t materialize, so this may be only a temporary surge. Democratic number crunchers, starting with Nate Silver, are sounding increasingly sanguine about the direction the absentee ballots are taking, though. Nate projects about a 500-vote margin for Murphy when all is said and done.

The Albany Project has been all over the sudden increase in ballot challenges by the Tedisco camp (who’ve moved to challenge second-home voters and student voters in the last few days). In the battle of perceptions, however, the GOP may have gone a fridge too far with their latest step, challenging the absentee ballot of NY-20’s favorite resident, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand visited the Great Orange Satan and HuffPo to blog about her experience.

• MO-Sen: Polls have given SoS Robin Carnahan a commanding position in the open Missouri senate race, and now she has fundraising numbers to match, posting $1,048,000 in the first quarter.

• OH-Sen: There’s one other SoS running for an open senate seat who didn’t fare so well, though. Jennifer Brunner pulled in a surprisingly low $200,000. That may pick up once she gets the expected EMILY’s List endorsement, but it leaves her lagging behind Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who raised more than $1 million and is already wearing the mantle of ‘establishment’ Dem candidate.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who’s never held elective office before but is well-connected in Philadelphia’s corridors of power, reported a solid $584,000 in an abbreviated Q1 (only since mid-February).

• OK-Sen: Are you there, God? It’s me, Tom Coburn. I can’t decide whether or not to run for re-election. (He says he’s not playing games; it’s a “spiritual thing.”) The Club for Growth, in their first act since Chris “Count” Chocola took over, endorsed Coburn today, though.

• TX-Gov: Kinky Friedman, who got 12% of the vote as an independent in the chaotic 2006 Texas governor’s race, is doing it again, and this time he’s running in the Democratic primary. It’s unclear whether this will work to Friedman’s advantage, since a lot of his support comes from Paulists, Naderites, and other assorted weirdos who may not be registered Democrats, and Tom Schieffer gives Dem voters a ‘normal’ option.

• FL-10: Bill Young is always on ‘most likely’ to retire lists, but the 78-year-old is giving a little more fodder for that mill with today’s fundraising report. He raised only $7,100 in the first quarter, sitting on $412K CoH. (He only raised $15K in Q1 of 2007, though, and won easily in 2008.)

• MI-09: Joe Knollenberg won’t be back for a rematch against Gary Peters, who unseated him in 2008, but his former chief of staff will. Paul Welday, who’s also a former Oakland County GOP chair, will challenge him in 2010. Welday lost a race for the state house in 2008.

Kudos to the DCCC for landing one of their first (very) big recruits of the 2010 cycle:

This morning, former Delaware Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of Finance John Carney filed an official Committee to run for Delaware’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Carney, a Claymont native and long time Wilmington resident who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor from 2001 through January of 2009, issued the following statement announcing his candidacy:

“With our economy in a recession and unemployment continuing to rise, our country and our state are facing unprecedented challenges. To address them, we need strong, experienced leaders who can rise above partisanship and bring people together to address these challenges. I’ll be that kind of leader in Congress – one who works with both Republicans and Democrats to move our country forward, starting with a focus on creating jobs and getting our economy back on track.”

Carney mentioned back in January that he was considering a run, but I wasn’t sure if he’d bite and didn’t expect an announcement so soon. Of course, this is great news for Team Blue, and it’s good to see that Carney realizes he needs an early start in order to beat longtime GOP Rep. Mike Castle.

Carney narrowly (and unexpectedly) lost last year’s gubernatorial primary to Jack Markell (who went on to cruise in the general), but apparently the two have a good relationship. Carney also won his last two campaigns for LG with 62% of the vote, which is exactly what Obama netted here. I’m sure Carney is looking at the model set by Delaware’s senior Senator, Tom Carper, who also took out a septuagenarian Republican incumbent in the Blue Hen State. It can definitely happen again.

(Hat-tip to reader CD.)

A key player in Florida changes his tune:

His approval ratings may be sky high, but if Charlie Crist runs for the U.S. Senate, he still could face a serious primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

In an about-face, the conservative Miami Republican said Tuesday that Crist’s candidacy would not deter him from running if he decides to jump into the race. Rubio said that in 25 days he raised $250,000 for an exploratory campaign for the Senate and will make a decision within weeks.

“My decision, which I’ll announce shortly, will not be predicated on what anybody else does,” Rubio said in a phone interview from Washington, where he gave a speech and had meetings this week. He brushed off suggestions that he may run for attorney general, saying he’s passionate about federal issues.

Oh please, oh please, oh please….

From Josh Segall’s lips to my inbox to your computer screens:

MONTGOMERY, AL – Josh Segall, the 2008 Democratic nominee for Congress in Alabama’s 3rd district, announced today that he will mount a campaign against Mike Rogers (R-Saks) in the 2010 Congressional election.

“It’s time for a new direction.  I am a fiscal conservative who will work to create and attract 21st Century jobs to east Alabama so that hardworking people can get ahead,” said Segall.

“Alabama is suffering under irresponsible policies that bail out greedy executives who created this mess and leave hardworking Alabama families holding the bag.  Rogers supported the Wall Street bailout, but did nothing for Main Street Alabama.   He voted to send Alabama jobs overseas, when what we needed was a plan to create good jobs at home.  It’s time to stand up to special interest politics and put Alabama families first once again,” said Segall.

Segall, a Montgomery-area attorney, came closer than expected in his first race against GOP Rep. Mike Rogers last year, losing by a 54-46 margin despite being outgunned by Rogers’ war chest. In total, Rogers outspent Segall by a 2-to-1 margin. By jumping into the race at an earlier point this cycle, Segall may find himself at less of a financial disadvantage — Rogers has yet to file his first quarter fundraising report, but he ended 2008 with $42K in the bank (i.e. drained).

Via a press release:

Josh Segall, the 2008 Democratic nominee for Congress in Alabama’s 3rd district, announced today that he will mount a campaign against Mike Rogers (R-Saks) in the 2010 Congressional election.

“It’s time for a new direction.  I am a fiscal conservative who will work to create and attract 21st Century jobs to east Alabama so that hardworking people can get ahead,” said Segall.

“Alabama is suffering under irresponsible policies that bail out greedy executives who created this mess and leave hardworking Alabama families holding the bag.  Rogers supported the Wall Street bailout, but did nothing for Main Street Alabama.   He voted to send Alabama jobs overseas, when what we needed was a plan to create good jobs at home.  It’s time to stand up to special interest politics and put Alabama families first once again,” said Segall.

Segall, as most folks here know, performed impressively last cycle: The DCCC didn’t target this race, and Segall was outspent 2-to-1, yet he still held incumbent GOPer Mike Rogers to a 54-46 margin. He also outperformed Obama, who lost the district 56-43 according to the Swing State Project’s analysis – though Obama actually did a bit better here than Kerry did.

PVI-wise, however, the district moved from R+4 to R+9, because Obama’s slight improvement on 2004 trailed his overall nationwide surge. But I think Alabama is a classic case that demonstrates the limits of something like the PVI. As we saw last cycle, Democrats retained AL-05 (R+12) and picked up AL-02 (R+16), showing that candidates with the right local appeal can wind up with very different results from the top of the ticket.

Segall got in relatively late last time – this cycle, with greater name rec and experience under his belt, he’ll have more time to raise money and campaign. Also, with Artur Davis out at the DCCC (background here), this race could wind up getting some national help. I’m looking forward to following this one.

• NY-20 (pdf): This morning’s update from the BoE has Scott Murphy’s lead increasing a bit, up to 56 votes. Brace yourself for later today, though, when Saratoga County (Jim Tedisco’s base) is scheduled to report absentees for the first time.

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter picked up an important backer in the 2010 primary: NRSC chair John Cornyn (who’d, of course, like to limit the number of seats lost on his watch). “As I survey the political landscape of the upcoming 2010 elections, it’s clear we need more candidates that fit their states,” said Cornyn. Although Cornyn doesn’t mention his name, he obviously has in mind a guy who doesn’t fit his state: Pat Toomey, who just happened to officially announce his long-rumored Senate bid yesterday.

• MN-Sen: No surprise here; Norm Coleman, having lost the election yesterday according to a three-judge panel, has filed an appeal with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Election law blogger Rick Hasen looks at yesterday’s opinion and the difficulty Coleman will face in getting it reversed.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio reported raising $250,000 in the last month since opening his exploratory committee, a solid start. Meanwhile, Kendrick Meek continued to dominate the labor endorsement front, picking up the nod from the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, AFL-CIO.

• IL-10: State senator Susan Garrett says she’ll decide within the month whether or not to challenge Mark Kirk (sounding like she’s trying to wait as long as possible to see if Kirk jumps into the senate race and leaves an open seat). Kirk has turned back a number of serious challenges in the 3rd-most Dem-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (won by Obama with 61% of the vote).

• NV-02: A credible Democratic challenger to Dean Heller has materialized. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg plans to announce her candidacy next week. This district, once a Republican stronghold, went for McCain by less than 100 votes.

• ID-01: Walt Minnick just got some fundraising help from an unexpected place. Former two-term GOP senator from Idaho Steve Symms is headlining Minnick’s April 23 breakfast fundraiser.

• NRCC: Campaign Diaries has the full list of all 43 Dems targeted in the GOP’s big radio-spot-and-robocall blitz.

• Where Are They Now?: Tom Feeney: just took a job with noted think-tank the Heritage Foundation, to focus on “community outreach.” Bob Ney: just got the 1-3 pm slot on a conservative talk radio station in Moundsville, WV. Chris Chocola: just made it official, that he will be replacing Pat Toomey as head of the Club for Growth. Vito Fossella: just pled guilty to DWI and will serve four days in Alexandria city jail.

• Red Menace: Spencer Bachus (AL-06) just announced that he is holding in his hand a list of 17 socialists in Congress. We all know about Bernie Sanders; anyone care to hazard a guess who the other 16 are?