Month: April 2009

Wow.

http://www.capitolweekly.net/a…

I am not usually the diary posting type but this seemed like big news if it pans out.  Cant say Im totally surprised but Garamendi was my guy and I fully planned on voting for him in the primary knowing he would probably only garner about 10% of the vote.

Personally and politically, I really like him and kind of wished I still lived in CA-10 so I could cast a vote for him.  I met him once.  He is a large, congenial and enagaging man.

It looks almost certain now that AG Brown will take the plunge for Team Blue and easily win the Dem primary.  Either he or Feinstein but I never really thought she would enter.  Some of my more well-connected friends in the CDP seem to agree with that assessment as well.

Also, I dont see much hope for Buchanan or DeSaulnier given this event but in a low-turnout election, who knows?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

QUESTION: What do you think about the idea of secession or sovereignty for your state?

PERRY: Oh, I think there’s a lot of different scenarios. Texas is a unique place. When we came into the Union in 1845, one of the issues was that we would be able to leave if we decided to do that.

My hope is that America, and Washington in particular, pays attention. We’ve got a great Union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it.

But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, who knows what might come out of that.

This man is seriously deranged.  He is getting dangerously close to treason.

Jim Bunning has been telegraphing bad fundraising numbers for some time now, especially with his public admission last month that his fundraising was “lousy.” With the numbers he released today, we can see the full scope of “lousy:” he raised $263,000 in the first quarter, and has $375,000 cash on hand. This looks like the Bunning campaign starting to enter a death spiral: perceptions that he can’t win lead to low fundraising, which leads to perceptions that he can’t win (and certainly that’s not helped by polls showing him losing by double digits).

Also, bear in mind this is less than his potential Dem challenger Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has; Mongiardo raised more than $429,000 last quarter (although Mongiardo will need to spend a lot this year to stay competitive with AG Jack Conway in the primary). And while you might be thinking $263K can still go a long way in a cheap state like Kentucky, that’s not quite true; Kentucky is a very inefficient state for advertising dollars, as you have to pour a lot of money into the Cincinnati and Evansville markets, so blanketing Kentucky costs more than the cost of blanketing some states with significantly larger populations.

Still, Bunning is rich as Croesus compared with fellow Republican Tom Coburn of Oklahoma. Coburn reports having raised all of $17,000 in the first quarter, and holds $57,000 cash on hand. While Coburn has been making public noises lately about being unsure about whether to run for re-election (saying yesterday that he was seeking divine guidance on the issue, as well as saying that “Being a doctor is more fun”), these numbers speak pretty loudly on the issue.

It’s time to bring ’em to Justice:

Democrat Charlie Justice will end a decade-long state legislative career to challenge C.W. Bill Young for Congress. “The decisions made in Washington D.C. more and more impact our daily lives and  that’s what drew me to public service in the first place,” said the 39-year-old state senator from St. Petersburg. “We need people in Washington that understand their decisions have real impact on the families and small businesses here.” […]

Either way, Justice says he’s in: “If he decides to retire after 40 years in Washington, we’ll thank him for his service and if he decides to run again, we’ll have a healthy debate,” said Justice, an academic adviser at the University of South Florida.

This is another major, major score for the DCCC, who hoped to lure Justice (whose state Senate district is a competitive one which mostly overlaps with Young’s 10th CD) into this race last cycle. The 10th District is one of the most evenly-split seats in the nation in terms of its partisan composition; Obama and Gore both won the district under its current lines by four and two points, respectively, while Bush won the district by a 51-49 margin in 2004.

Like Delaware’s Mike Castle, Young has routinely won re-election by massive margins, but often against unheralded and unknown challengers. Most recently, Young turned away his latest challenge from Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth, whose campaign suffered from being both underfunded and decidedly last-minute, by a 61-39 margin. But also like Castle, Young is getting pretty long in the tooth — he will turn 80 just weeks after the 2010 elections, and he hasn’t had to run a real race in eons. Perhaps the idea of actually needing to run a full-geared campaign will be enough to nudge the old crumb-bum into retirement.

Things just got ugly for Republican Jim Tedisco: The latest numbers from New York State show him picking up just 163 votes in his “stronghold” of Saratoga County, meaning that he still trails by 86 votes overall. Tedisco’s camp was hoping Saratoga would put him over the top, so this is a harsh blow – none of the remaining counties were as favorable to the Republican on election night as Saratoga.

Meanwhile, Dem Scott Murphy just got a very favorable ruling from a judge overseeing the case:

Judge James Brands just ruled that most of the over 1,200 contested absentee ballots in the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in Congress were objected to improperly based on discrepancies in their applications. This means many more ballots will be counted.

Tedisco’s team has been following the Norm Coleman playbook almost to the letter, challenging ridiculous numbers of absentee ballots (including, as you may know, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s). Seeing as Murphy’s attorneys argued in favor of counting many of these challenged ballots, this augurs well.

UPDATE: More discussion in BigDust’s diary.

I know Nate Silver already handled the math this morning as it pertains to the NY-20 race but here is an update from the NY BOE:

http://www.elections.state.ny….

For those of you who like it quick and dirty at Tedisco, the latest tally after Saratoga and Washington has Murphy by 86 votes.

All that is left it looks like is some counting left to do of absentees in Dutchess, Warren and Columbia (all Murphy counties on election night and in the absentees thus far) plus a small amount of military and overseas ballots in Columbia, Dutchess, Essex and Rensselear (all Murphy counties again on election day except Rensselear where Murphy has won in the absentee count so far anyway).

With an overwhelming majority of challenged ballots being from the Tedisco campaign and NOT included in these numbers, the math is looking awfully difficult now for Tedisco.  It looks like Murphy will finish the paper ballot count ~100 votes ahead.  Barring a judicial catastrophe I dont see how Murphy loses this one.  

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C) really screwed up in some recent comments that he made. He is making himself more and more vulnerable with each passing day.

Here is what he told a group of NC business leaders earlier this week, as reported by The Hendersonville Times-News:

“On Friday night, I called my wife and I said, ‘Brooke, I am not coming home this weekend. I will call you on Monday. Tonight, I want you to go to the ATM machine, and I want you to draw out everything it will let you take. And I want you to tomorrow, and I want you to go Sunday.’ I was convinced on Friday night that if you put a plastic card in an ATM machine the last thing you were going to get was cash.” Burr added, “I think it is safe to say the economy has not rebounded. If anything, we have gone deeper into what economists call ‘recession.’ I would tell you it’s not a recession. I would define this as a depression.”

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

Advocating runs on the banks is a really idiotic thing to do, and I am really looking forward to getting a new Senator in 2010. I really hope that Roy Cooper will run for Senate!

What do you all think of these comments and will this impact Sen. Burr’s future at all?

This is becoming a disturbing pattern. First this:

When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that “I haven’t yet reviewed his work.”

And now this:

Meek said he was unaware that Obama had pledged during his campaign to lift the limits on remittances put in place under President George W. Bush.

The first quote is just idiocy and a pathetic dodge – if Meek can’t go after Charlie Crist directly now, how does he expect to take him on if Crist gets into the Senate race? The second statement, meanwhile, is part of an embarrassing attempt to pander to the hardliner Cuban American establishment in Florida, and as this blog post details, it’s not going to get Meek anywhere.

But really, none of this ignorance, whether feigned or real, inspires much confidence.

{Originally posted with poll at my blog Senate Guru.  Head over to vote in the poll.}

With conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey set to challenge incumbent Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican Senate primary, I think it’s safe to assume that we’ll see a bloodbath in which Specter is labeled a convictionless flip-flopper and Toomey is dubbed an unelectable right-winger.  No doubt both Specter and Toomey will spend the bulk of their resources just to get through the primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee politically battered and financially near-broke, having to re-build a bankroll from almost scratch.

Naturally, this raises the question: who do you want the Democratic nominee to be?  With the Republican nominee starting the general election in rough shape from a bloody primary, and with Pennsylvania Democrats continuing to grow their voter registration edge over Pennsylvania Republicans, Democrats are in the driver’s seat.  Without further ado, here is the cattle call of potential candidates, in alphabetical order:

District Attorney Lynne Abraham

During late-December of last year, both KYW Newsradio 1060 Philadelphia and CBS-3 Philadelphia reported that District Attorney Abraham was considering a bid.  As for bio, she was head of the Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority in the 1970’s and subsequently a judge on the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas.  She has been District Attorney of the City of Philadelphia since 1991 and has won four elections during her tenure – but she has already announced that she is not running for re-election to the post this year.  A knock on her as a candidate, though, is related to the strength of her resume: in 2010, she will turn 69-years-old.  I don’t imagine she’d plan on seeking several six-year terms to build her seniority.

State Representative Dwight Evans

The 54-year-old State Representative is a powerhouse in the state Legislature as the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, having served in the state House for nearly thirty years, but has also had his share of electoral losses.  He finished third in the 1986 Democratic primary for Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, finished third in the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary, and had fifth-place showings in two crowded Philadelphia Mayoral runs in 1999 and 2007.  Still as the Democrats’ Appropriations chief for nearly twenty of his thirty years in the state House, he has wielded considerable power for a long time.  The Executive Director of the PA-Dems was talking Representative Evans up this past January as a possible 2010 Senate candidate.  Representative Evans has done a great deal to improve Philadelphians’ lives, but has had difficulty translating that success in bids for higher office.

Congressman Patrick Murphy

At only 35-years-old, Congressman Murphy, an Iraq War veteran now serving his second term in Congress, is considered a rising star in the Party.  Some of his pluses are quite obvious: his military experience brings unique perspective and his relative youth would allow him to build seniority over the years for Pennsylvania.  According to the National Journal’s 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Murphy was the 187th most liberal member and the 240th most conservative member – in other words, he was fairly centrist.  Given the political carnage that is expected at the end of Specter-Toomey: The Sequel, PA-Dems may want to elect someone more liberal than Congressman Murphy has been.  Also, while Congressman Murphy appears to be a more-than-decent fundraiser, as of the end of 2008, he had just under $150,000 on hand, with just over $100,000 in debt, which means he’s starting from nearly scratch on the money front.

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz

Now serving in her third term, Congresswoman Schwartz is one of only two women in Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation.  Her bio includes: executive director of the Elizabeth Blackwell Center, a Planned parenthood clinic in Philadelphia, ’75-’88; acting Deputy Commissioner of the Philadelphia Department of Human Services, ’88-’90; State Senator, ’91-’04; Congresswoman, ’05-present.  According to the National Journal’s 2008 Vote Ratings, Congresswoman Schwartz was the 112th most liberal member and the 316th most conservative member, i.e.she was a bit to Congressman Murphy’s political left.  Also, known for being a strong fundraiser, she closed out 2008 with just under $2 million on hand and no debt.  On Election Day 2010, Congresswoman Schwartz will be 62-years-old, suggesting perhaps only a tenure of two-terms tops if she ran.

Congressman Joe Sestak

The 57-year-old military veteran is in his second term in Congress.  After graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1974, Congressman Sestak picked up an M.P.A. and a Ph.D. from Harvard before embarking on an impressive naval career.  According to the National Journal’s 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Sestak was the 150th most liberal member and the 277th most conservative member, putting him in between Congressman Murphy and Congresswoman Schwartz in the ranking.  Also a very solid fundraiser, Congressman Sestak ended 2008 with over $2.9 million on hand and no debt.  Back in December, Congressman Sestak’s office suggested that he wouldn’t be a candidate for Senate in 2010; however, with the new political dynamic of the combative Republican primary, perhaps Congressman Sestak might reconsider.

State Representative Josh Shapiro

Like Congressman Murphy, Representative Shapiro is only 35-years-old.  He is in his third term in the state Legislature, and was named Deputy Speaker of the House in his second term.  Prior to his time in the state Legislature, Representative Shapiro spent about eight years on Capitol Hill working for several elected officials, including service as Chief of Staff to Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Arlen Specter’s last Democratic opponent.  Representative Shapiro has met with the DSCC to discuss a possible bid; and, he has begun an aggressive outreach campaign to determine whether or not he’ll run.

State Board of Education Chairman Joe Torsella

The 45-year-old Torsella has worn many hats: state Board of Education Chairman, President and CEO of the National Constitution Center, and Deputy Mayor for Policy and Planning for the City of Philadelphia under then-Mayor and now-Governor Ed Rendell.  He also ran for Congress in 2004 and narrowly lost the Democratic primary to now-Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, who won her first term in that election cycle.  He is also the only announced candidate for Senate in 2010 on the Democratic side, though he has yet to launch a campaign website (that I can find, anyway) despite having announced two months ago.  It is rumored that Torsella enjoys the support of Governor Rendell’s political machine behind the scenes.  Through contacts from his numerous civic roles and possible assistance from the Rendell machine, Torsella was able to raise a respectable $600,000 in Q1 (having only started campaign fundraising in mid-February).  The amount is enough to demonstrate capable fundraising, but far from strong enough to scare off primary challengers, especially members of Congress with seven-figure campaign bankrolls.

State Auditor Jack Wagner

Auditor Wagner began serving as a statewide official in this capacity in 2005, succeeding Bob Casey Jr., who, of course, defeated Republican Rick Santorum for Senate in 2006.  Prior to his tenure as Auditor, Wagner spent a little over a decade in the Pennsylvania state Senate.  Auditor Wagner is also a Purple Heart recipient from his time with the Marine Corps in Vietnam.  Auditor Wagner is the only person on this list from western Pennsylvania, which could provide a geographic advantage.  On Election Day 2010, Auditor Wagner will be 62-years-old, like Congresswoman Schwartz, suggesting a limit to his possible tenure in the Senate.  Additionally, it’s been reported that Auditor Wagner has told friends that he will not run for the Senate seat.

Former State Treasurer Robin Wiessmann

Former Treasurer Wiessman had a largely financial services background before filling the remainder of Bob Casey’s Treasurer term after he ascended to the U.S. Senate.  She spent the 90’s as President of Artemis Capital Group and went on to serve as a Vice-president at Goldman Sachs.  She also put in a stint as Deputy Director of Finance for the City of Philadelphia.  If Wiessman was interested in a prolonged political career, one suspects that she would have run for Treasurer last year instead of ceding the office, though.  If she does decide to run, fundraising won’t be as difficult as it would be for other first-time candidates as her husband is reportedly a major Democratic fundraiser.

With Governor Ed Rendell serious about retiring from electoral politics and with current state Treasurer Rob McCord in only his fourth month in the role and having expressed no interest in a Senate bid thus far, this appears to be the pool from which a Democratic nominee will arise.  You’re encouraged to make your case for your candidate in the comments.  If there is someone you would like to see as the Democratic nominee in PA-Sen who hasn’t been listed, share your thoughts in the comments, as well.

First Quarter 2009 FEC Reports have started rolling in and Michele Bachmann put up a pretty impressive number. According to MNPublius

Bachmann

Raised – $314,000

Cash on Hand – $224,000

Okay folks you’ve been following all the crazy comments she’s made lately. It’s time to start raising money to combat her. If we don’t fund a candidate in MN-06 with a heavy war-chest then Bachmann will be free to spread that money around to some of her embattled counterparts.

$5, $10, $15 to the MN-06 Dem nominee fund will add up quickly