Month: April 2009

I decided to try redistricting in my home state of Colorado a while back, and after many many tries, I was able to put this together.  I know its been done, but mine is a little different.  

I used the 2007 estimates to put it together, since the 1st, 7th, 3rd, and 2nd won’t have enough people as they are to remain intact anyway.  

This map is assuming democrats continue to control both houses and the governor’s mansion, luckily its not likely that we lose any of the three.

My first goal was also making Markey safe, she’s a great representative, especially for such a traditionally red district, so wanted to pull her district out of the swingiest territory.  Second was changing the 3rd enough so that Obama would have won it, just shoring up Salazar some and keeping it really swingy, preventing most Colorado Republicans from winning there because they have moved so far to the right.  

With the 7th and 1st I wanted to make them more compact and make the 7th just safe no matter what, and wanted to dillute the blueness of the 2nd for the benefit of the 3rd.  

And then I tried to pack as many Republicans into the 5th and 6th as possible.

First the new 2nd would consist of all of Boulder county, retaining its center, Gilpin county, Broomfield county, the city of Thornton in Adams county, and the northern and western parts of Jefferson county that are not in the 7th.  On the western slope it would pull in Grand, Jackson, Routt, Moffat, Rio Blanco, and Garfield counties.  All of those except for Routt are generally red, and this would take those voters out of the 3rd, but the new 2nd would still be very blue with Obama getting about 63.6% of the vote.  

The new 3rd would retain its traditional base in Pueblo and the San Luis valley, and unfortunately I could not take out Mesa county, (the best suggestion I’ve gotten is to just let Utah have it) so I just tried bringing in other blue areas instead.  The counties added to the 3rd are: Clear Creek, Eagle, Summit, Lake, Baca, Crowley, the rest of Otero and most of Bent county.  Some of these are the eastern plains red areas but small enough or they vote for Democrats often enough to not make much difference.  In the new 3rd, Obama would have barely beaten mcCain with just 50.3% of the vote.

The new 4th is probably the most drastic change, and goes from a narrow Obama loss to a solid Obama win.  By losing all the rural plains counties as well as eastern Weld county, there is only the increasingly blue Larimer county and the bluing southwest Weld county, including Greeley.  What is added here is all of Adams county except for Commerce City, Westminster, and Thornton.  The result is a district where Obama received 54.4% of the vote.  

The new 1st and the new 7th are interesting, I had heard of an idea back in 2000 of splitting the city and coutny of Denver, so in this map I did that (to the best of my ability).  So the new 7th would contain all parts of Jefferson county that were in the old 7th with the addition of Westminster, the west side of Denver (including downtown), and the Adams county portion of Westminster.  The new 1st would contain the east side of Denver (including DeGette’s neighborhood), Commerce City, Aurora in Arapahoe coutny, Englewood, Cherry Hills Village, Glendale, and Littleton in Arapahoe county.  So the new 1st looks a little funky, but no more so than the city and county of Denver does anyway, and the new 7th is much more compact.  In the new 1st Obama received 68% of the vote and in the new 7th he received 64% of the vote.

The new 6th is much more republican and so out of our reach for the time being, but a 5-2 split was easier to protect than an attempt at a 6-1 split.  So the new 6th contains the rest of Arapahoe county, the rest of Jefferson county, and then Douglas county, Elbert county, and all the rest of the eastern plains counties, including eastern Weld county, and northeast Bent county.  In the new 6th Obama managed to get only 41.9% of the vote.

And the new 5th is almost identical to the old 5th, containing the counties of El Paso, Teller, Park, Chaffee, Fremont, and Custer.  Obama recieved 40.1% of the vote here.

So that’s what I came up with, with 3 solid blue districts, one leaning blue, one swing, and 2 solid red.

I know we’ve all blamed California Democrats plenty for cowardice in 2002, but I’ve thought about it and I come to a clearer decision. Things were different then. They had just been through the hard fought 90s where they had to fight tooth and nail to win the senate Seats, the Governorship and a huge numbers of house seats.

Look at the political environment. Gray Davis was very unpopular, the Gary Condit scandal had just racked state Democrats, and Bush was wildly popular and many of areas of the state looked a lot different than they do now, after another 8 years of political trends.

The one thing I think we can all be assured on is that they won’t be so timid again, not after Kerry’s and and especially Obama’s margin in the state, Obama is the benchmark I’d use because he will be running again in 2012 and hopefully will win the state by an even bigger margin then giving coattails. Regardless many of the states areas and major Demographics are trending even more Democratic and doing so very fast.

Here are a list of the Republicans who must be targeted and how.

Dana Rohrabacher. No excuse for having someone this vitrolic a Representative. There’s no way LA should have a representative who refused to meet President Bush at one time because he was too liberal and who would dress up with Minute Men if he could. Obama made progress in this current gerrymander which contains all the Republican coastal areas south of LA. The 46th has a large hispanic population that is growing quickly, and a large Asian population.

Democrats will probably take move hispanic areas out of CA-37 and CA-36 to make a coalition Hispanic VRA district. All they would need to do is increase it by 24 points from 16% to 40% and then use the large Asian population. Laura Richardson’s district has plenty of Democrats to spare, as does Harman’s, and Harman is a little to conservative for her district anyway. Doing this to Rohrabacher just gives me a certain pleasure, there’s such a fitting irony to it. Hopefully he will be defeated by a Hispanic Democrat.

Ed Royce is another big, sore thumb. McCain still own it 51-47. It covers northern Orange County, I’d change that. The best way to change it would to be to lop off that southern hoof into Orange that goes around Loretta Sanchez’s district and move the district North into some of the areas repesented by Grace Napiltano and Linda Sanchez, notable Cerritos. I’d make the new 40th about 56-43 Democratic to just to be safe and then I’d leave all the remaining Republican areas in the 42nd district, I’d buff it up with all the most conservative areas.

As I’ve said elsewhere Bilbary can be targeted. Susan Davis’ district has become so overwhelmingly Democratic it can be diluted a little. Bilbary’s district is trending out from under him for, an ironically, second time, losing the first time to Susan Davis. A little mixing up could create two San Diego districts that went around 59-40 for Obama and both would be Hispanic coalition VRA districts and would be hispanic majority by the end of the decade. The San Deigo can safely support two Democrats now, its time to get to it here.

CA-03 should also be made more Democratic. It can be done. I’d revert it to a district similar to its old boundaries; part of Sacrmento and North Sacremento County Amador County and Yolo. Yolo county is so liberal it would push the district back to the left and Lungren wouldn’t be able to hold such a district. CA-01, Mike Thompson, doesn’t need Yolo anymore. Its become so liberal anyway and the trend doesn’t show any sign of stopping.

Ken Calvert is weak Republican and politician. He’s been racked by scandal in the 90s and barely managed to win a swing district then. So Democrats did the sensible thing, (and I’m mocking them here), and gave him a safely Republican district. When that trended towards Democrats he nearly lost again. I see a trend here. If his district were finally to be made Democratic leaning he’d lose to a strong candidate. It can be done, but to do it I’d make Mary Bono Mack and John Campbell safe. One out of three ain’t bad, and the Inland Empire can’t support more than one Democrat safely right now and Calvert is the weakest of the three so he should be the one targeted.

And there you have it. A loss of five Republican Congressional seats and without going to such extremes as Republicans did in Texas. If we went that far we could probably knock out another two districts or so.

P.S. Please vote in my diary. I use it as a counter to see how many people read a given thing.

I found this site a few months ago and have really enjoyed the content, so I decided I would try and contribute something. If you have any questions, comments, constructive criticism, feel free to let me know.

Background: I decided to start with Colorado, since it’s my home state. Colorado has both a Democratic governor and a Democratic legislature, allowing the Democrats to do as they please when it comes to redistricting. My first priority was to protect Markey, and my second priority was to put Salazar into a more favorable district that we’ll have a good chance of holding if he ever decides to retire.

District 1 – Diana DeGette – I didn’t change this district too much. This district includes Denver and Arvada, in Jefferson county. It is still very heavily Democratic; Obama got about 73% of the vote here.

District 2 – Jared Polis – This is the district I am least happy with. I tried to give Salazar a more favorable district by removing Mesa County (Grand Junction), which is a deep shade of blood red, and giving him all of the ski resort counties, most of which are insanely Democratic. However, that means that Polis’s district now contains Grand Junction, as well as some other conservative areas like Delta County. It’s still anchored by Boulder, though, and Obama got 57-58 percent of the vote here, but I’m still worried I might have diluted the district too much.

District 3 – John Salazar – John Salazar is as safe as can be in his current district, but I wanted to create a district that we’d have a good chance of holding if and when Salazar retires. To do that, I removed a whole section of his district stretching from Wyoming to Grand Junction. In its place, he got some heavily Democratic territory currently represented by Jared Polis, some swing areas to the west of Colorado Springs that are currently being wasted in Doug Lamborn’s district. Unfortunately, I also had to give him part of Douglas County, and a few of the counties on the eastern plains, but they are more than offset by Pueblo and the San Luis Valley. Obama got about 51-52 percent of the vote here, making it a swing district in presidential races.

District 4 – Betsy Markey – One of my main goals was making Markey safer. This is the district that I live in, and after six years of having Marilyn Musgrave be my voice in Washington, Markey is a nice change. I didn’t have to work too hard to make her safer, since the rapid growth in Weld and Larimer counties allowed me to move most of the Eastern Plains to a different district while adding hardly any new territory. This is another swing district where Obama won 51-52 percent of the vote, but I think it’s enough to make Markey safe.

District 5 – Doug Lamborn – I wanted to do something to get rid of Doug Lamborn; his two biggest backers are the Christian Coalition and the Club for Growth; that should tell you all you need to know. However, for the forseeable future, there is going to be a heavily Republican district based in Colorado Springs, so I stripped the district of the swing areas in the western section, and added most of the counties in the Eastern Plains that Markey was relieved of, as well as part of heavily Republican Douglas County. McCain got about 61 percent of the vote here.

District 6 – Mike Coffman – I thought about trying to come up with a gerrymander that would make Coffman’s district too Democratic for him to be re-elected, but I decided against it. However, don’t lose hope yet. Because of explosive growth in the district, it is dramatically reduced in size, and it is anchored by Democratic leaning Arapahoe County, as well as about 60 percent of the population of Douglas County. In the new, more compact district, Obama got 52-53 percent of the vote, and it’s still trending our way. Coffman, like most Colorado Republicans, is very conservative, and thus is a poor fit for a classic swing district like this one. He’ll have the fight of his life in 2012, and if he survives that, we’ll get him eventually just because of the long term trends in the district.

District 7 – Ed Perlmutter – Perlmutter’s new district is sort of gerrymandered, and looks like a pair of nunchucks. It contains all of Jefferson County except Aurora, and the parts of Adams County that aren’t in Polis’s district. It leans Democratic. Obama got about 56% of the vote in this district.

Not terribly surprising, but good:

After a trial spanning nearly three months, Norm Coleman’s attempt to reverse Al Franken’s lead in the recount of the U.S. Senate election was soundly rejected today by a three-judge panel that dismissed the Republican’s lawsuit. …

“The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately,” the panel said in its unanimous decision.

Norm Coleman will probably pursue a hopeless, jerkassed appeal. But the only thing I have to say at this point is: Harry Reid, seat Al Franken.

GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray may be up against a familiar face in 2010. From a press release freshly delivered to my inbox:

Encinitas, CA – Francine Busby will formally announce her candidacy for California’s 50th Congressional District at a press conference to be held Thursday, April 16th at 12:00pm at Cottonwood Park in Encinitas, 95 N. Vulcan Avenue.

President Barack Obama won the district by over 4% in the 2008 general election (51% to 46.8%). These figures represent a stark change in a political landscape that saw President George H.W. Bush carry the district by 11.3% in 2004.  Democrats have made significant strides in decreasing the voter registration gap from over 56,000 in 2004 to less than 36,000 in 2008.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has also put the 50th Congressional District on its target list for the 2010 election cycle.

As most Swingnuts are aware, Busby ended up losing the 2006 special election for this seat by just under five points, and went on to lose the November ’06 rematch by double that margin (but with only a fraction of the resources behind her). Undoubtedly, she must feel inspired by Nick Leibham’s close call last November (he lost by only 4% to Bilbray) and the overall pro-Dem trend of the district’s voter registration and Presidential performance.

I’m not yet sold on another Busby rematch here, but she won’t be the only option in the Democratic primary; attorney Tracy Emblem has also recently announced her candidacy for the seat, but it remains to be seen just how formidable of an opponent she’ll be (her website could use some serious work, for starters).

There’s a whole lotta shakin’ going on in Tennessee today. First, the big news: ex-Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. won’t run for Governor. For the Democrats, that leaves the field to state Sen. Roy Herron, Nashville businessman Ward Cammack, and former state House Majority Leader Kim McMillan. Mike McWherter, a distributor of beer and son of popular former Gov. Ned McWherter, is also a rumored candidate for the nomination. On the Republican side of the fence, GOP Rep. Zach Wamp, Memphis DA Bill Gibbons and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam will duke it out.

And speaking of Wamp, while his Chattanooga-based 3rd District is a tough nut to crack for any Democrat, it has been competitive in the past (Marilyn Lloyd, a conservative Democrat, held the district for twenty years before retiring in 1994, the same year that Wamp won the open seat with 52% of the vote), and it looks like Tennessee Dems are set to make more than just a token effort for the seat. The Knoxville News reports that former Tennessee Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers is set to jump into the race:

Oak Ridge attorney Warren Gooch, who was flirting with running for the 3rd District Congressional seat, has decided not to be a candidate for the Democratic nomination in next year’s election, but former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers, who also lives in Oak Ridge, is going to run.

“I’m getting my plans in order, getting my ducks in a row. I’m putting an exploratory committee together,” she said. She said she would have an announcement in a couple of weeks. […]

But Gooch does feel that Flowers, who served in the state job for Gov. Phil Bredesen in his first term, would be the right candidate, he said.

“Paula’s background and credentials (are strong) against a likely candidate from Hamilton County, with the most likely (GOP candidate) the current Republican state chairman, Robin Smith,” Gooch said.

SSP’s analysis of the 2008 vote shows that McCain romped in the 3rd CD by a 62-37 margin, so this would be tough sledding even if the GOP finds itself muddied due to a contentious primary. Still, Flowers will bring some serious fundraising connections to the table, and her background may prove attractive to the rural portions of this district: she’s currently serving as the VP of an energy company that’s seeking to develop local farm-grown switchgrass into biofuel.

A quote from today’s Las Vegas Review-Journal neatly (and hilariously) sums up the state of the 2010 senate race in Nevada:

Nevada Republicans have been frustrated by the lack of a clear opponent for Reid, a Democrat who would be considered vulnerable if he weren’t running unopposed.

The article, however, is focused on Sharron Angle, who may wind up, at the very least, preventing Reid from being unopposed. If the name sounds vaguely familiar, she’s a former assemblywoman from Reno who finished a super-close second in the 2nd District primary in 2006, sandwiched between then-SoS, now-Rep. Dean Heller and Dawn Gibbons, the soon-to-be-ex-wife of then-Rep., now-Gov., soon-to-be-unemployed Jim Gibbons. In 2008, she ran in the GOP primary against state senator Bill Raggio (currently the minority leader) from the right, but lost that too.

With top-tier candidates like Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki sidelined by an indictment for misappropriation of state funds, and ex-Rep. Jon Porter settling in on K Street, the Nevada GOP bench doesn’t have much left on it. The national and state parties, nevertheless, haven’t expressed much interest in Angle. She says the push to run has come from “supporters,” and that she…

wasn’t recruited by the state GOP or the National Republican Senatorial Committee, but she said she hopes to talk to them if she gets the commitments she’s hoping for.

Meanwhile, Harry Reid continues to put the “$” in “Vega$,” raising $2 million in the first quarter, with over $5 million cash on hand. If he continues to raise at that clip (in an inexpensive media state like Nevada) and he faces Angle (whose current fundraising goal is $100,000 by May) in the general, this once-thought-vulnerable race may wind up being a footnote in 2010.

• NY-20 (pdf): The latest update from the state BoE this morning shows Scott Murphy’s lead down to 25, as the absentee count proceeds (and a few readjustments are made to recanvass numbers). We’re still waiting on any absentee numbers from Saratoga County (Tedisco’s base) and most from Washington and Warren Counties (Murphy’s base).

Also, there’s been some research into what happens in NY-20 ends in a true tie (and no, apparently “Thunderdome” is not involved after all). Under NY law, coin tosses are not allowed in state or federal races, so the governor has the choice of either holding another special election for which the candidates will need to be re-nominated (allowing Libertarian Eric Sundwall another shot at the ballot), or else postponing the whole matter until the general election in Nov. 2009.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is getting slammed even by his one-time supporters now. Rep. Danny Davis told Chicago Public Radio that Burris needs to “hurry up” and announce whether or not he’s running for re-election in 2010. Davis’s sudden hurry is personally motivated, though, as Davis also stated publicly for the first time that he’s considering running for that senate seat himself. (It seems like he wouldn’t want to do it with Burris in the primary, though, as that would split the African-American vote.)

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman may not have much name recognition or charisma, but he does have one advantage: lots of money. Today he reported raising $1.7 million in Q1, and is sitting on $3.1 million total. Lee Fisher, by contrast, announced last week that he raised $1.1 million, while Jennifer Brunner hasn’t reported yet.

• NY-Sen: Here are some tea leaves that Rep. Carolyn McCarthy isn’t going to be running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the senate primary: she raised $145,000 in the first quarter (for House re-election, but that could be transferred if she switched to the senate race), with $262,000 CoH. (Also-rumored challengers Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney have much bigger stashes; they haven’t reported for Q1, but have $1.7 million and $1.1 million CoH, respectively.)

• DE-Sen: Along the same lines, it looks like Mike Castle isn’t gearing up his fundraising machine toward a run for the open senate seat in Delaware in 2010. (On the other hand, he’s raised enough that retirement doesn’t seem in the offing.) Politico catches that he raised only $73,000 in Q1, with $841,000 CoH.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek got another big “get” in his so-far-successful quest to nail down all the building blocks to cornering the Democratic nomination. He got the endorsement of the national AFSCME today, one of the nation’s largest unions.

• MN-Sen: Digging by Senate Guru and Down with Tyranny reveals that one of the Minnesota Supreme Court justices who’ll be hearing Norm Coleman’s whinings is Christopher Dietzen, who has donated thousands to Republican candidates, most significantly to Norm Coleman himself, creating a rather clear basis for recusal.

• AL-Gov: Former “Ten Commandments” judge Roy Moore, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley, is looking for another try, now that it’s an open seat. With a fractured-looking GOP field, it’s possible Moore could sneak through the primary this time, which, given his polarizing nature, might actually give the Dem a small advantage in the general.

• NYC-Mayor: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg solved the term limits problem, but he had one more problem to overcome: getting a ballot line from some party. To solve that dilemma, he’s returned to his shallow Republican roots, remaining a registered independent but picking up the GOP ballot line by getting the endorsement of three of the boroughs’ GOP chairs. In a display of ‘post-partisanship’ at its finest, he’s reportedly also trying to secure the ballot line of the left-leaning Working Families Party.

• OH-17: In a move guaranteed to provoke a huge collective sigh of relief, Ohio senate minority leader Capri Cafaro said that she won’t run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Tim Ryan, assuming he runs for Ohio Lt. Gov. in 2010. “I don’t know if I can get as much accomplished on the federal level,” she says.

• PA-04: Republicans seem to be coalescing around state representative (and minority whip) Mike Turzai as a challenger to Rep. Jason Altmire in this slowly-reddening district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Turzai lost the 1998 election in the 4th to Ron Klink by a fairly wide margin. The 4th’s most prominent GOPer, Lynn Swann, has already declined.

• AR-01: A likely GOP candidate has already surfaced to run against Marion Berry (no, not the DC mayor) in this rural district that had one of the most alarming rightward shifts over the decade. In the ‘can’t make this stuff up’ department, businessman Eric Crawford already boasts wide name recognition from doing the radio farm report.

• IL-11: Real estate investor and big-money GOP donor Henry Meers Jr. has filed to take on freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th. However, some in the local GOP instead favor Iraq War vet and former McLean County board member Adam Kinzinger. (Kinzinger is from the rural part of the district, while Meers and Halvorson hail from Will County in the Chicago suburbs.)

• NRCC: The NRCC is going on the offense against 43 different House dems for “rubber stamping” Nancy Pelosi’s “San Francisco-style budget” (and its socialistic promise of Rice-a-Roni in every pot). Oddly, they’re singling out OH-18’s Zack Space (certainly not one of our most vulnerable members) with a TV spot. Nine other Dems get radio spots, while robocalls target the rest (including other entrenched members like Charlie Melancon and Chet Edwards).

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices this time: Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. Go get your democracy on, and tell us which state you voted for (and why) in the comments. (J)

Obama beat McCain 61%-37% in California, performing 7% better than Kerry in his 54%-44% win over Bush. Here are the county-by-county percentages for Kerry and Obama and the difference between those percentages. Counties that flipped from Bush to Obama are bolded.

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
Alameda	75.2%	78.8%	3.6%		Kings	33.8%	42.1%	8.3%		Placer	36.3%	43.4%	7.1%		Shasta	31.4%	36.0%	4.6%
Alpine	53.3%	61.0%	7.7%		Lake	53.2%	58.2%	5.0%		Plumas	36.9%	42.8%	5.9%		Sierra	33.2%	37.4%	4.2%
Amador	36.6%	41.6%	5.0%		Lassen	27.6%	31.5%	3.9%		Riverside	41.1%	50.3%	9.2%		Siskiyou	37.8%	43.3%	5.5%
Butte	44.2%	49.9%	5.7%		Los Angeles	63.2%	69.2%	6.0%		Sacramento	49.6%	58.5%	8.9%		Solano	57.2%	63.5%	6.3%
Calaveras	37.1%	42.2%	5.1%		Madera	34.8%	42.4%	7.6%		San Benito	52.7%	60.5%	7.8%		Sonoma	67.2%	73.7%	6.5%
Colusa	31.6%	40.0%	8.4%		Marin	73.3%	78.0%	4.7%		San Bernardino	43.6%	52.1%	8.5%		Stanislaus	40.4%	49.9%	9.5%
Contra Costa	62.3%	68.0%	5.7%		Mariposa	37.6%	42.5%	4.9%		San Diego	46.4%	54.2%	7.8%		Sutter	31.9%	40.8%	8.9%
Del Norte	41.4%	45.4%	4.0%		Mendocino	63.5%	69.6%	6.1%		San Francisco	83.1%	84.2%	1.1%		Tehama	32.1%	36.7%	4.6%
El Dorado	37.4%	43.7%	6.3%		Merced	42.3%	53.4%	11.1%		San Joaquin	45.9%	54.5%	8.6%		Trinity	42.8%	50.8%	8.0%
Fresno	41.7%	50.3%	8.6%		Modoc	25.8%	29.8%	4.0%		San Luis Obispo	45.6%	51.4%	5.8%		Tulare	32.9%	41.5%	8.6%
Glenn	31.7%	37.8%	6.1%		Mono	49.3%	55.6%	6.3%		San Mateo	69.5%	73.5%	4.0%		Tuolumne	38.6%	42.5%	3.9%
Humboldt	57.7%	62.3%	4.6%		Monterey	60.4%	68.2%	7.8%		Santa Barbara	53.2%	60.4%	7.2%		Ventura	47.6%	55.3%	7.7%
Imperial	52.5%	62.3%	9.8%		Napa	59.5%	65.2%	5.7%		Santa Clara	64.0%	69.5%	5.5%		Yolo	59.4%	67.1%	7.7%
Inyo	38.9%	43.9%	5.0%		Nevada	45.0%	51.5%	6.5%		Santa Cruz	73.0%	77.5%	4.5%		Yuba	31.6%	41.5%	9.9%
Kern	32.6%	40.2%	7.6%		Orange	39.0%	47.7%	8.7%

As you can see, a lot of the counties that showed the most improvement from 2004, including a lot of those that flipped, are in the areas of the state that experienced the fastest growth this decade. This is good news for us heading into the 2010 elections, because a lot of congressional and state legislative seats in these areas are ripe for the picking. This is also good news for redistricting, as the rapid growth of Democratic numbers gives the Democrats more room overall and allows for further gains by them.

You can also see that the counties in the multi-county Democratic stronghold of the Bay Area showed smaller Democratic growth numbers. This does not exactly mean that the region is trending Republican; rather, it has just pretty much maxed out its Democratic numbers. So just relying on our old strongholds in the Bay Area and L.A. County only takes us so far, and I am pleased to see the improvements in the fast-growing counties, which allow us to expand our playing field greatly.

Check below the flip for the juicy details on the numbers by districts.

The districts are colored by the party of their current occupants. Republican-held districts that voted for Obama are bolded.

Congressional District

District	Kerry	Obama	Diff		District	Kerry	Obama	Diff		District	Kerry	Obama	Diff		District	Kerry	Obama	Diff
CA-01	59.7%	65.6%	5.9%		CA-15	62.9%	68.4%	5.5%		CA-28	71.0%	76.2%	5.2%		CA-41	36.9%	43.7%	6.8%
CA-02	36.6%	42.7%	6.1%		CA-16	63.4%	69.6%	6.2%		CA-29	61.2%	67.6%	6.4%		CA-42	36.9%	44.9%	8.1%
CA-03	40.8%	49.2%	8.4%		CA-17	65.6%	72.1%	6.5%		CA-30	66.1%	70.4%	4.3%		CA-43	58.1%	68.0%	9.9%
CA-04	37.4%	43.9%	6.5%		CA-18	49.3%	59.2%	9.9%		CA-31	76.9%	79.9%	3.0%		CA-44	39.9%	49.5%	9.6%
CA-05	61.1%	69.5%	8.4%		CA-19	37.9%	46.0%	8.1%		CA-32	62.3%	68.2%	5.9%		CA-45	43.1%	51.5%	8.4%
CA-06	70.3%	76.0%	5.7%		CA-20	50.6%	59.6%	9.0%		CA-33	82.8%	86.8%	4.0%		CA-46	41.6%	47.9%	6.3%
CA-07	67.1%	71.7%	4.6%		CA-21	33.7%	42.1%	8.4%		CA-34	68.8%	74.7%	5.9%		CA-47	48.6%	60.1%	11.5%
CA-08	84.2%	85.4%	1.2%		CA-22	31.0%	38.3%	7.3%		CA-35	79.0%	84.4%	5.4%		CA-48	40.4%	49.3%	8.9%
CA-09	85.9%	88.1%	2.2%		CA-23	58.3%	65.5%	7.2%		CA-36	59.0%	64.4%	5.4%		CA-49	36.5%	45.1%	8.6%
CA-10	58.5%	64.9%	6.4%		CA-24	43.1%	50.5%	7.4%		CA-37	73.5%	79.6%	6.1%		CA-50	43.9%	51.3%	7.4%
CA-11	45.3%	53.8%	8.5%		CA-25	39.9%	49.4%	9.5%		CA-38	65.3%	71.3%	6.0%		CA-51	53.4%	63.1%	9.7%
CA-12	71.5%	74.3%	2.8%		CA-26	43.7%	51.0%	7.3%		CA-39	58.5%	65.5%	7.0%		CA-52	37.7%	45.0%	7.3%
CA-13	70.9%	74.4%	3.5%		CA-27	59.3%	66.1%	6.8%		CA-40	38.4%	46.6%	8.2%		CA-53	61.2%	68.2%	7.0%
CA-14	68.3%	73.0%	4.7%

Board of Equalization

District	Kerry	Obama	Diff
BOE-1	67.2%	72.1%	4.9%
BOE-2	42.7%	50.9%	8.2%
BOE-3	42.4%	50.6%	8.2%
BOE-4	65.6%	71.5%	5.9%

State Senate

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
SD-01	38.6%	45.8%	7.2%		SD-11	68.3%	73.3%	5.0%		SD-21	63.2%	69.2%	6.0%		SD-31	41.6%	49.7%	8.1%
SD-02	63.3%	68.7%	5.4%		SD-12	47.7%	57.9%	10.2%		SD-22	74.1%	78.3%	4.2%		SD-32	58.9%	68.4%	9.5%
SD-03	77.8%	81.6%	3.8%		SD-13	67.4%	72.2%	4.8%		SD-23	65.0%	70.0%	5.0%		SD-33	36.3%	45.2%	8.9%
SD-04	36.9%	43.0%	6.1%		SD-14	34.8%	42.5%	7.7%		SD-24	64.4%	69.6%	5.2%		SD-34	46.6%	57.3%	10.7%
SD-05	53.7%	62.3%	8.6%		SD-15	52.5%	59.1%	6.6%		SD-25	72.3%	78.7%	6.4%		SD-35	40.3%	47.9%	7.6%
SD-06	55.6%	64.3%	8.7%		SD-16	49.5%	58.9%	9.4%		SD-26	81.6%	85.8%	4.2%		SD-36	34.5%	42.1%	7.6%
SD-07	60.9%	66.7%	5.8%		SD-17	39.9%	48.7%	8.8%		SD-27	59.5%	66.1%	6.6%		SD-37	41.2%	50.3%	9.1%
SD-08	73.9%	75.8%	1.9%		SD-18	30.2%	37.5%	7.3%		SD-28	61.6%	67.2%	5.6%		SD-38	40.3%	48.3%	8.0%
SD-09	81.1%	84.0%	2.9%		SD-19	48.4%	55.6%	7.2%		SD-29	41.8%	48.9%	7.1%		SD-39	57.6%	64.8%	7.2%
SD-10	67.3%	71.4%	4.1%		SD-20	65.4%	72.5%	7.1%		SD-30	62.3%	68.7%	6.4%		SD-40	52.9%	62.1%	9.2%

State Assembly

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff		County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
AD-01	60.1%	65.5%	5.4%		AD-21	66.6%	72.0%	5.4%		AD-41	62.3%	67.8%	5.5%		AD-61	54.4%	63.2%	8.8%
AD-02	32.3%	38.0%	5.7%		AD-22	67.3%	72.1%	4.8%		AD-42	72.0%	75.5%	3.5%		AD-62	61.8%	71.3%	9.5%
AD-03	41.8%	48.0%	6.2%		AD-23	66.2%	71.5%	5.3%		AD-43	63.9%	70.3%	6.4%		AD-63	42.6%	51.1%	8.5%
AD-04	38.1%	45.2%	7.1%		AD-24	62.1%	68.0%	5.9%		AD-44	60.8%	67.2%	6.4%		AD-64	41.2%	50.0%	8.8%
AD-05	42.3%	51.1%	8.8%		AD-25	38.0%	44.9%	6.9%		AD-45	78.5%	80.6%	2.1%		AD-65	39.0%	47.0%	8.0%
AD-06	71.0%	76.2%	5.2%		AD-26	41.8%	50.7%	8.9%		AD-46	80.6%	83.9%	3.3%		AD-66	34.4%	43.7%	9.3%
AD-07	65.1%	70.7%	5.6%		AD-27	66.7%	71.8%	5.1%		AD-47	80.7%	85.3%	4.6%		AD-67	39.6%	46.1%	6.5%
AD-08	55.6%	63.3%	7.7%		AD-28	59.8%	68.3%	8.5%		AD-48	86.0%	89.1%	3.1%		AD-68	38.4%	47.4%	9.0%
AD-09	66.0%	73.4%	7.4%		AD-29	36.3%	44.4%	8.1%		AD-49	61.2%	65.3%	4.1%		AD-69	52.7%	64.4%	11.7%
AD-10	42.5%	51.1%	8.6%		AD-30	42.2%	51.1%	8.9%		AD-50	70.6%	76.9%	6.3%		AD-70	42.0%	50.9%	8.9%
AD-11	64.3%	69.7%	5.4%		AD-31	52.8%	62.2%	9.4%		AD-51	75.5%	81.4%	5.9%		AD-71	34.4%	44.6%	10.2%
AD-12	79.1%	79.0%	-0.1%		AD-32	28.7%	35.8%	7.1%		AD-52	86.1%	90.8%	4.7%		AD-72	38.3%	47.3%	9.0%
AD-13	85.6%	87.5%	1.9%		AD-33	43.1%	49.5%	6.4%		AD-53	56.9%	62.4%	5.5%		AD-73	38.5%	46.5%	8.0%
AD-14	80.6%	83.8%	3.2%		AD-34	32.6%	40.6%	8.0%		AD-54	56.6%	61.9%	5.3%		AD-74	42.4%	50.2%	7.8%
AD-15	49.6%	57.6%	8.0%		AD-35	59.7%	66.9%	7.2%		AD-55	63.0%	69.4%	6.4%		AD-75	43.2%	51.3%	8.1%
AD-16	85.6%	87.9%	2.3%		AD-36	38.4%	49.3%	10.9%		AD-56	55.1%	62.1%	7.0%		AD-76	59.6%	66.2%	6.6%
AD-17	49.7%	59.5%	9.8%		AD-37	43.8%	51.0%	7.2%		AD-57	58.8%	66.2%	7.4%		AD-77	35.8%	42.7%	6.9%
AD-18	69.7%	73.8%	4.1%		AD-38	43.6%	51.4%	7.8%		AD-58	60.8%	66.4%	5.6%		AD-78	51.2%	60.2%	9.0%
AD-19	69.3%	72.9%	3.6%		AD-39	69.9%	76.4%	6.5%		AD-59	39.6%	46.6%	7.0%		AD-79	56.0%	65.0%	9.0%
AD-20	65.9%	70.3%	4.4%		AD-40	60.3%	66.9%	6.6%		AD-60	38.4%	45.8%	7.4%		AD-80	51.6%	59.6%	8.0%

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/20…

Moore told the Associated Press that he plans to announce his decision June 1. That’s when he could start raising money for the Republican primary in June 2010.

“Right now I’m very inclined to enter. I feel there is a need, and I feel I’m well qualified for the position,” he said.

Moore, 62, garnered just 33 percent of the GOP primary vote when he ran against Gov. Bob Riley in 2006. But Riley can’t run again in 2010.

-He may very well become the gov as Alabama is very red.:(