Month: May 2009

• AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins (who was defeated in his attempt to seek a third term in 2008) is jumping into the open seat race here. He is likely to draw support away from Terri Sewell, Artur Davis’s preferred successor, also a Selma native.

• AL-Gov: Speaking of good ol’ Artur, he’s released an internal poll which shows him up 56-26 over Ron Sparks and 54-25 over Sue Bell in the Dem primary. He also purports to lead Republican Bradley Byrne by a 43-38 margin. I’m finding it hard to believe that a congressman has such high name rec (59-6 for Davis among Dems statewide!). But the best checksum: This survey has Obama’s favorables at 58%. Last month, SUSA had them at just 48%. Which do you think is more likely? In other AL-Gov news, state Sen. Roger Bedford (D) says he won’t run.

• IA-Gov: State Auditor David Vaudt, one of only two Republicans holding statewide office in Iowa, has declined to challenge incumbent Gov. Chet Culver next year.

• NC-Sen: Both Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre are leaving the door open to a Senate bid, with McIntyre sounding more enthused. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is “not considering” the race, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker is “not looking at running,” and state Rep. Grier Martin claims his “decision to decline a chance to run against Elizabeth Dole was also not to run in 2010.”

• NV-Gov: Jim Gibbons’ poll numbers are just horrendous – in a new Mason-Dixon survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, 54% say they would “definitely vote to replace” him. Gibbons’ campaign manager claims things are lookin’ up, because his boss’s approvals were 25-69 in a January Reno Gazette poll but are an awesome 17-52 in this one.

• NV-Sen: Meanwhile, the same poll finds pretty lousy numbers for Harry Reid as well, but better than Gibbons’. Reid gets 45% “definitely replace,” but his approvals are “only” 38-50. The big difference, of course, is that the GOP doesn’t really have any strong candidates to challenge Reid, while plenty of folks are lining up to take a whack at Gibbons.

• FL-CFO: Checking in with an old friend, it looks like Annette Taddeo is considering a run to replace Alex Sink as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer.

• Redistricting: CQ has a story on five key races that could affect congressional redistricting. Roll Call has published the second half of its two-part series on the same subject (part one here). And finally, the National Conference of State Legislatures is holding the first in a series of training seminars on redistricting in San Francisco, June 11-14.

Public Policy Polling (5/13-17, registered voters):

Brad Henry (D): 40

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 52

Dan Boren (D): 36

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 53

(MoE: ±3.7%)

In a hypothetical race against two of the strongest candidates that Oklahoma Democrats could muster — incumbent Gov. Brad Henry and 2nd CD Rep. Dan Boren — Coburn would be far from imperiled. In any case, neither Henry nor Boren would be likely candidates to make kamikaze runs against the incumbent Coburn, who sports a strong 59% approval rating in the same poll. However, an open seat scenario could be different…

Brad Henry (D): 43

Tom Cole (R): 44

Brad Henry (D): 44

J.C. Watts (R): 45

Dan Boren (D): 40

Tom Cole (R): 42

Dan Boren (D): 41

J.C. Watts (R): 46

While the DSCC is reportedly heavily encouraging Henry to run if Coburn decides to retire at the end of his term, it’s a bit sobering to know that the most well-known and popular Democrat in the state would not begin a Senate campaign with an advantage against a sadsack like Tom Cole.

UPDATE: The National Journal reports that ex-Gov. Frank Keating (R) is interested in running for Coburn’s seat should it become open, according to sources close to Keating. Additionally, Coburn is expected to make an announcement on his 2010 plans “within the next few weeks”.

Three months ago, the NRCC announced its “Patriot Program,” a Frontline-like effort to protect the most vulnerable Republican members of the House. But then, they did nothing – no announcements, no lists, nothing. For three months. Until, finally, today. Here’s the first-round list:

Note that despite the PVIs, the only district on here which Obama did not win was NY-26 (carried by McCain 52-46). There are also some pretty notable absences on this list, such as Mike Castle (DE-AL), Mark Kirk (IL-10), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Bill Young (FL-10). All of these guys could run for higher office or retire, so maybe the NRCC is tipping its hand here – or just hedging its bets.

UPDATE: On May 21 Republican attorney and former State Senator Chuck Larson of Cedar Rapids said he’s not running for governor either.

Iowa Governor Chet Culver’s approval numbers have declined since the start of the year, but Republicans aren’t exactly beating down the doors to run against him. Earlier this month former Republican Governor Terry Branstad and Vermeer Corporation chief executive Mary Andringa both quashed speculation that they might challenge Culver next year.

Today State Auditor David Vaudt announced that he won’t run for governor either. It’s bad news for Republicans who were hoping to recruit a candidate known for expertise on fiscal matters.

More details and analysis are after the jump.

At a press conference, Vaudt cited Iowa’s budget problems as his reason for not running:

“I know that if I were to run for governor, there would be some that would try to discredit important financial information that I’m providing to Iowans. They would do that by simply questioning the motives, since I would be running for governor.”

The last thing he wants to do, Vaudt said, is diminish his ability to keep Iowans informed about what’s happening with state finances.

Other factors might also have influenced Vaudt’s decision. He’s virtually guaranteed re-election if he stays in his current position, whereas he might have trouble in a Republican gubernatorial primary. Or, perhaps he doesn’t think Culver is particularly vulnerable. Even though Culver is below 50 percent in some polls, he still has time to bounce back. It’s worth remembering that Iowans haven’t turned an incumbent governor out of office since 1962.

I doubt Vaudt would have won the Republican nomination for reasons I described here, but he would have been a stronger general-election candidate than Bob Vander Plaats, the only Republican who seems certain to run. Vander Plaats is a Sioux City businessman who was Jim Nussle’s running mate in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Since then, Vander Plaats has served as Iowa chair for Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign and has argued that Republicans are losing elections in Iowa because they’re not conservative enough.

Vaudt’s decision is a blow to Republicans who are hoping the 2010 race will revolve around economic and fiscal issues. It also removes from the mix one of the most seasoned office-holders from a party that’s had a bad run in Iowa for the last decade.

Hill Research sent me partial results from the poll they took in March about the Iowa governor’s race. They redacted some of the most interesting findings, such as how appealing respondents found various types of candidates (including an “auditor who has kept track of how state money is spent”). Still, I found this result intriguing:

   Do you want an experienced and effective elected official, or an outsider with a fresh perspective and new ideas?

   Strongly want an experienced elected official: 34%

   Want an experienced elected official: 19%

   Fresh perspective: 14%

   Strongly want a fresh perspective: 27%

Vaudt is by far the most experienced statewide official who was considering running for governor. (Former Governor Terry Branstad has no desire to get back in the game.)

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, the only other Republican currently holding a statewide elected position, is leaning toward running for re-election rather than governor. It makes sense. He would be heavily favored against Francis Thicke, the most likely Democratic candidate for secretary of agriculture. In contrast, I believe Northey would be a long-shot for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, having gone on record supporting a gas tax increase. Besides, the same-sex marriage controversy will probably give an edge to religious conservatives in next year’s primary. Even if Northey won the GOP nomination, I think that with no base of support in eastern Iowa population centers, he would be an underdog against Culver in the general.

One or two Iowa House Republicans seem likely to challenge Culver. Former Iowa House Speaker Chris Rants has been thinking about running for governor for a long time. Earlier this month he sent an e-mail to potential supporters saying that since the 2009 legislative session ended,

I’ve put 2,300 miles on my car driving around the state talking to donors and activists about running for Governor.

I’m not making any official announcements or anything like that just yet. I’m taking stock first to see if I can find the support, and if I do, then I’ll let the press know. I have my eyes wide open. Its at least an $8M – $10M endeavor – or $110,000 a week as I like to say… I want to put some money in the bank, and be sure of financial backing before I take a stab at that.

So far it’s been encouraging. I have a series of fundraisers set up, and people who have agreed to help organize and set things up for me. I’ll be on the road this coming week again – back to the east coast of the state.

If he runs, Rants will compete with Vander Plaats for the conservative vote. Rants tried several times last month to bring legislation banning same-sex marriage to a vote on the Iowa House floor.

State Representative Rod Roberts told the Daily Times-Herald of Carroll he is “very seriously considering” a gubernatorial bid. He’s an ordained pastor, but some fellow Republicans claim he can communicate a broader message than abortion and gay marriage. Whether a state legislator from western Iowa can raise enough money and gain enough name recognition to seriously challenge Culver is another question.

Craig Robinson of the Iowa Republican blog thinks there is room for another Republican candidate besides Rants and Vander Plaats, but

A candidate from the business community or a candidate that hadn’t previously weighed in on the marriage debate may find the primary more difficult to navigate than it would have been if the [Iowa Supreme] Court’s decision had been different. This may be the reason why, out of nowhere, we have seen some long-time GOP powerbrokers like Dave Roederer and Doug Gross warning Iowa Republicans that the focus cannot be on the issue of gay marriage if we want to win elections. […]

Gross has not been shy about his belief that the fiscal issues create an agenda which will unite the Republican Party. Many, if not most, Republicans probably agree with that. The only problem is that the issue of gay marriage has been thrust to the forefront in Iowa by the Court’s decision. Ignoring the issue or trying to diminish its importance is simply not an option.

With only 397 days until the primary, it is likely that the gubernatorial primary will be between Vander Plaats, Rants, and maybe one other candidate. While it is true that there is plenty of time for candidates to emerge, the clock is ticking. It takes time to organize people and raise the huge amounts of money needed to run statewide campaigns.

Robinson asserts that Roederer and Gross “are probably having difficulty recruiting a candidate of their liking.” Vermeer Corporation chief executive Mary Andringa has already said she’s not running for governor next year.

In theory, today’s announcement from Vaudt could leave an opening for a Republican moderate hoping conservatives will split the primary vote. On the other hand, there aren’t many moderates left in Republican political ranks, and Culver doesn’t look endangered enough to make this race attractive for someone from the business community, in my opinion.

Pleas share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

One consequence of Gov. Jon Huntsman’s sudden decision to accept Barack Obama’s offer of the position of Ambassador to China is that the newly-promoted governor, current Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert, will need to face the voters in 2010. Huntsman’s term would have taken him through 2012, but Utah law is such that a replacement Governor newly elevated in a term’s first year faces a special election at the next regularly scheduled general election. (Remember, Huntsman was just re-elected in 2008.)

Herbert seems to be giving every indication that he will not be a placeholder and run for re-election in 2010 (for the remaining two years of the term; if he won, he’d still have to run again in the regularly-scheduled 2012 election if he wanted a full term). However, history may not be on his side. Lt. Gov. Olene Walker took over as Utah Governor in 2003 after Mike Leavitt became the Bush-era EPA Administrator, but because of Utah’s weird nominating procedures (previously discussed here), she didn’t even make it into the primary for her 2004 re-election, finishing third at the convention. (The top two finishers at the nominating convention advance to the primary, unless one candidate receives more than 60% at the convention, in which case he or she moves straight to the general.)

Herbert does not sound as out-of-step with activist base that dominates the nominating conventions as the somewhat moderate Walker, so he may still survive. He may still face some top-shelf competition, starting with AG Mark Shurtleff, last seen screwing up the announcement of his Senate primary candidacy against Bob Bennett via Twitter. Although Shurtleff is rumored be “Senate or bust,” he may be tempted to run against the less-known Herbert rather than longtime institution Bennett. (Another Bennett challenger, Tim Bridgewater, may be also interested in swapping races.)

There’s also the possibility that a decent Democrat might be more attracted to a chaotic, off-year gubernatorial election. That probably wouldn’t include Rep. Jim Matheson (who’d still have to give up his seat in 2010 to run), but it could include Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon or Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker, who could run without giving up their current seats. While Swing State Project is skeptical of any Democrats’ chances in this race (it is, after all, Utah), there is enough fluidity here, especially on the GOP side, for us to add this as a “Race to Watch” to our 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings.

UPDATE (James): The Salt Lake Tribune touched bases with both Corroon and Jim Matheson, and they both are refusing to rule anything out:

A run for governor “is certainly not something I was planning for,” said Corroon, who “would never say never.” He says his “intent” is to finish his second term as Salt Lake County mayor.

Matheson says he will weigh his options. “In politics you always look at your opportunities,” he said, “and that’s what I always do.”

With Roy Cooper out of the running for the Democratic nomination against GOP non-entity Richard Burr, CNN reports that the DSCC is putting out feelers to four potential candidates — including one who previously passed on the race:

Still, the DSCC – which is otherwise staying mum on the recruitment process – is taking four Democratic candidates seriously at the moment, according to a committee source.

Their top candidates are, in no particular order: Rep. Heath Shuler, the former NFL quarterback and second term congressman from western North Carolina’s 11th district; Rep. Bob Etheridge from the Raleigh-area second district; former state Treasurer Richard Moore, who lost in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary last year; and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton.

Shuler, who declined to run for this race back in March, has been receiving encouragement to reconsider the race from Dem groups in DC and North Carolina, according to a spokesperson.

Aside from Shuler, who brings a unique strength in western NC to a hypothetical race, the DSCC appears to looking at candidates with a statewide track record first, and they have a lot to choose from here. Dalton, a former state senator, won the Lt. Governor’s race by a five-point margin in 2008, while Etheridge served for two terms as NC’s Superintendent of Public Instruction from 1988-1996. (Additionally, Etheridge’s Raleigh-area district, which Obama carried last fall, would be an easier hold for Democrats than Shuler’s or Mike McIntyre’s seats.) However, Etheridge is getting a bit long in the tooth for someone looking to join the Senate — he’ll be 69 years old by election day in 2010.

For more details on the long list of potential nominees, the Winston-Salem Journal has a brief rundown on the DSCC’s top four choices and many other possible recruits.

(H/T: Political Wire)

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

NormDollar.com, the effort to provide Republicans funding Norm Coleman’s endless legal appeals with disincentive from continuing that funding, is about to reach the $100,000 threshold!

For those unfamiliar with NormDollar.com, basically, anybody who wants to see Coleman finally admit defeat and allow Minnesota to once again have two U.S. Senators can pledge $1 for every day that Coleman prolongs his legal challenges.  To show appreciation for helping progressives raise tens of thousands of dollars that will be used to defeat Republicans in 2010, representatives of the effort caught up with Coleman to personally thank him and to get his signature on the check representing the tens of thousands of dollars that Coleman’s own obstinance has raised for progressives.  You can help the effort cross the $100,000 mark by visiting NormDollar.com and chipping in.  Just one dollar a day to make Norm Coleman go away!

• NY-Sen-B: Steve Israel might have backed down from a primary challenge to appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, thanks to last Friday’s iron-fist-in-a-velvet-glove moment from Barack Obama… but fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney isn’t cowed. “I respect the choices that every member makes about their future. Steve Israel’s decision to not run for the U.S. Senate was his choice to make, but it doesn’t affect my decision-making process,” says Maloney. She has reportedly told colleagues of her plans to run, but nothing is official yet.

• KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell was tap-dancing like crazy when Chris Wallace asked him point blank on Fox News Sunday whether or not he endorsed Jim Bunning for re-election, restating endless variations on the theme that the race is unfolding and it’s not clear who the players are yet.

• CT-Sen: Another random primary challenger to Chris Dodd has surfaced: Merrick Alpert, a former Air Force officer, aide to Al Gore, and software company executive. Although his online statement about his candidacy attacked Dodd’s “corporate campaign contributors,” Merrick’s previous track record in the leadership of Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century (or DL21C for short), a group for centrist pro-business young Democrats, suggests he may be running to Dodd’s right.

• WV-Sen: Best wishes to 91-year-old Sen. Robert Byrd, who was hospitalized over the weekend as a “precautionary measure” after he developed a fever from a minor infection.

• NY-Gov: Tom Golisano, wealthy gadfly who lost three gubernatorial runs on the Independence Party line, will not be running in 2010, despite some speculation he might run for the GOP nod this time. He’s changing his legal residence from New York to Florida, saying he wants to avoid New York’s high taxes.

• ID-Gov: Weirdo conservative Rex Rammell, who spend a lot his own money to run as an Independent in last year’s Idaho Senate race because of his disdain for Jim Risch (and ultimately had little impact on the race), has caught the political bug and been casting about for a new race. After considering primarying Rep. Mike Simpson in ID-02, he’s now planning to run in the 2010 Governor’s race. He seems to think current Gov. Butch Otter will retire after only one term (although he freely admits, “I could be totally wrong”).

• Redistricting: Roll Call has an interesting piece detailing organizational steps the Democrats are undertaking for the 2010-12 redistricting process. Apparently many felt caught flat-footed for the 2000 round of redistricting, and are wisely revving up years in advance this time.

From the Sunshine State:

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum launched his fourth bid for statewide office in his hometown of Orlando on Monday, announcing he would try to keep the governor’s office in Republican hands in 2010. …

Since Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision last week to run for the U.S. Senate instead of re-election, Republican political leaders hoping to avoid a primary have rushed to throw their support behind McCollum, 64, a 20-year former Central Florida congressman who ran for the Senate twice during this decade.

McCollum is the first major Republican to announce he would try to replace Crist, although Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson of Osceola County has said he will decide this week whether he would also run.

Partisans with long memories will recall that McCollum was one of the House impeachment “managers” who led the infamous witchhunt against Bill Clinton. He also got beaten by Bill Nelson for the open seat Senate race in 2000, and then lost to Mel Martinez in the GOP primary four years later.

A Mason-Dixon poll released last month showed a tie game between McCollum and the likely Dem nominee, CFO Alex Sink, who of course just got into the race last week. SSP currently rates this race a Tossup.