Month: June 2009

Rasmussen (6/22, likely voters):

Alex Sink (D): 34

Bill McCollum (R): 42

Other: 7

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Despite being something of a conservative douchebag, state AG Bill McCollum has a very good approval rating of 53-26 in this poll, while Sink is sitting on a 50-32 rating. So far, McCollum has been enjoying an early lead in every poll of the race since his entry early last month. Quinnipiac recently had McCollum up by 38-34 over Sink (UPDATE: actually, make that 38-34 for Sink), while Strategic Vision gave McCollum a two-point lead, and Mase-Dix had Sink behind by 6 points in May.

Sink’s been getting a bit dinged in the press in recent days over her personal use of a state-owned plane, but the matter was made murkier when McCollum was revealed to have made some questionable travel arrangements, too. I’m not convinced that this issue will gain a lot of traction.

And as for the Senate race…

Corrine Brown (D): 29

Charlie Crist (R): 50

Other: 8

Undecided: 13

Kendrick Meek (D): 28

Charlie Crist (R): 46

Other: 12

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The overall trend lines of this race remain pretty static for now.

Franklin & Marshall College (pdf) (6/16-21, registered voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 33

Joe Sestak: 13

Undecided: 48

(MoE: ±6.1%)

These numbers seem a little hinky – not only is the MoE pretty portly, but half undecided? No other poll has shown the Democratic electorate that indecisive. More interesting are Specter’s favorables, which sunk from 48-24 in March (before his switcheroo) to just 31-37 now. His job approvals have also crashed (52-37 to 34-55) as did his re-elects (40-46 to to 28-57).

Is this just a weird outlier? Or have Pennsylvanians grown seriously discontent with Arlen? Either way, I still maintain that he’d be very vulnerable to a Sestak primary – and if there’s any truth to these numbers, Specter’s in a world of trouble.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

Here’s a pretty big surprise coming out of Michigan: Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is term-limited out of her job in 2010 and has had an exploratory committee open for the 2010 open gubernatorial race (and has been considered a top-tier contender for that race for many years). She scheduled two news conferences for today, leading most people to assume she’d be announcing her bid — but instead announced that:

the Secretary of State has taken herself out of the race and is backing Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, who announced his candidacy last month.

This would initially appear to give a big boost to Bouchard, who you may remember from his decisive 2006 loss to Debbie Stabenow. However, before her terms as SoS, Land was county clerk in Kent County in Michigan’s conservative west. She shares this turf with Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who now has the west to himself. Meanwhile, AG Mike Cox and Bouchard are both based in the more moderate Detroit suburbs, where they’re left to battle it out. Hoekstra has to be viewing this as good news… and with a recent poll showing likely Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. John Cherry beating Hoekstra by 3 but losing to Land by 1, Democrats have to be feeling good too. (Discussion underway in pbratt‘s diary.)

RaceTracker: MI-Gov

• AR-Sen: There seems to be a competition among Arkansas Republican Senate candidates to see who can make the biggest ass of himself. It was businessman Curtis Coleman’s turn this time; yesterday, in reference to southeast Arkansas (where most of the state’s African-American population is), he said you “might as well get a visa and shots” before heading down there. Not content to stop digging his own hole, today he explained that what he meant was “accentuate or maybe even celebrate the enormous diversity we have in Arkansas…. I love Southeast Arkansas and meant it only as a metaphor.” Oh, well, if it’s only a metaphor, I guess that makes it OK.

• DE-Sen: After Rep. Mike Castle made an inartful comment a few days ago (“They’ve asked me to run for Senate as a Republican. I don’t know if I’m going to do that.”), he went ahead and clarified that he isn’t intending to switch parties.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio picked up a potentially useful endorsement in the GOP Senate primary: Rep. Jeff Miller, who represents FL-01 in the dark-red Panhandle, an area of the state where Rubio is little known so far but where his hard-right conservatism is likely to play well. Miller endorsed Charlie Crist in the 2006 governor’s primary.

• MO-Sen: Here’s another minor tea leaf that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman won’t be getting into the Senate primary: prominent Missouri political operative Gregg Keller, who was reportedly set to work for Steelman, instead went to Connecticut to manage Tom Foley’s CT-Sen campaign.

• NC-Sen: Here’s some good news out of North Carolina: former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be moving to get into the Senate race for the Dems. Cunningham described his efforts to put together a campaign in a post to his Facebook supporters group.

• NH-Sen: With establishment figures dithering on whether to get into the GOP Senate primary, businessman Fred Tausch is jumping into the void, launching a TV spot promoting his fiscal-discipline advocacy group, STEWARD of Prosperity. He says he’s interested in the Senate race, although not ready to publicly declare.

• VT-Sen: It wasn’t a done deal that 69-year-old Pat Leahy would be back for another term in the Senate, but he confirmed yesterday he’ll be back for a seventh term.

• AZ-Gov: Former Democratic state party chair and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson said today that he won’t run for Arizona governor, despite earlier statements of his interest. This leaves AG Terry Goddard (who has said he “intends” to run) with a pretty clear shot at the Dem nomination; it remains unclear if Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, armpit-deep in a frustrating fight with her GOP-held legislature, will run for a full term.

• CA-Gov: Rep. Loretta Sanchez announced she won’t be running for Governor but will seek another term in the House; she naturally became a topic of conversation with LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s exit from the race, leaving the Dem field without a SoCal, Hispanic, or female candidate. On the GOP side, Rep. John Campbell’s defection from the Steve Poizner camp to the Meg Whitman camp was just the tip of the iceberg: three state legislators and a county chair just flipped.

• SC-Gov: State Rep. Nikki Haley has been the subject of breathless conservative hype over the past few months as the anti-spending candidate to replace Mark Sanford (and also Sanford’s preferred choice for the job, if you read the tea leaves). See this pre-Sanford-implosion Politico piece from earlier this week to see what I mean. But with revelations that Sanford hasn’t been able to keep it in his pants or on this continent (a snap SUSA poll finds 60% of state residents think he should resign, with only 34% saying stay in office), Haley has moved to distance herself from Sanford, scrubbing all traces of him from her website where he was once prominently featured. (J)

• UT-Gov: Soon-to-be Gov. Gary Herbert looks like he won’t have a free ride at the nominating convention in the 2010 special election. Univ. of Utah professor Kirk Jowers, who reportedly had been offered the role as Herbert’s Lt. Gov., is the subject of a draft movement and may challenge Herbert for the top job instead — with Josh Romney (son of Mitt) as his LG. Rep. Jason Chaffetz appears to be in their corner.

• ID-01: Idaho pollster Greg Smith tested the approvals of local politicians, and Idahoans just like their politicians, gosh darn it, even that Demmycrat Walt Minnick (whose approval is 47/20, good news heading into a potentially very tough re-election). Governor Butch Otter has the most troublesome numbers, and even he’s at 47/35.

• IL-07: Here’s a potential open seat, although at D+35, not one we’re going to have to sweat very hard. Rep. Danny Davis, who had been vaguely associated with the IL-Sen primary, now looks to be taking concrete steps toward running for President of the Cook County Board, forming an exploratory committee. Davis was runner-up in that race three years ago. This time, he says he has a poll giving him a 7-point lead over county commissioner Forrest Claypool, who was presumptive frontrunner but pulled out of the race last week. With over 5 million constituents, it seems like a pretty good gig.

• NY-23: New York county Democratic leaders set an initial timeline for finding a nominee for the upcoming special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. July 17 is the deadline for declaring interest.

• PA-03: With no GOPer left to challenge freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Elaine Surma formed an exploratory committee to consider a bid. With no elective track record, she’s a senior agent with the state Attorney General’s office.

• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan’s seeming change of heart about running against Rep. Charlie Dent comes after having been called by Joe Biden last week with promises of White House support in the race.

• VA-02, VA-05: Roll Call looks at the prospects for the Virginia freshmen. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode is apparently close to making a decision on whether to try to wrest the 5th back from Rep. Tom Perriello, with state Del. Rob Bell or state Sen. Rob Hurt as backup plans. In the 2nd, none of the local elected GOP officials seem to be moving toward the race, and the GOP field is more a hodge-podge of various businessmen/veterans: Chuck Smith, Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola, and possibly Scott Rigell.

Quinnipiac University (6/16-21, registered voters, 5/5-11 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 23

Carolyn Maloney (D): 27

Undecided: 44

(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 44 (4)

Peter King (R): 28 (28)

Undecided: 26 (28)

Carolyn Maloney (D): 42

Peter King (R): 26

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±2%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 20 (17)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (62)

Undecided: 20 (18)

(MoE: ±3%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 34 (32)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 52 (54)

Undecided: 7 (8)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (47)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39 (41)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±2%)

Quinnipiac sees a slight uptick for Paterson – a trend? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani had an op-ed in the NYT yesterday (and has been carving out a slightly higher profile for himself of late by complaining, along with everyone else, about the mess in Albany). We speculated that a recent NYT op-ed by Tom Suozzi was a signal that he’s ready to start ramping things up. Perhaps the same is true here.

In the Senate department, the first test of Gillibrand vs. Maloney shows what almost all NY-Sen-B primary polls have shown – that the players are still mostly unknown throughout the state, and that Peter King would be doomed. Recognizing that King is not much of a foil, Gillibrand of late has been raising the specter of a Pataki run in her fundraising emails. While the NRSC, as CQ notes, may want him to run, George P. hasn’t made any affirmative moves in that direction yet.

More discussion in mkpowers’ diary.

RaceTracker: NY-Sen-B | NY-Gov

I drew this map assuming New Jersey will lose a congressional district. I tried to create 10 Democratic districts and 2 heavily Republican districts. I think at least 2 of the Democratic districts are shaky but the other 8 should hold fine. What I did was eliminate two Republicans, create a new Democratic district and strengthen Obama’s percentage in the 2nd district held by Frank LoBiondo. I did not want to go all out and try for an 11-1 Democratic delegation. My first priority was to strengthen shaky Democrats. The next map I will do will be either Georgia or Louisiana. I have not completely decided yet. I am also starting work on a Minnesota map. That is why I put a poll here to see which one you want me to do first. Safe Democrat/Republican means that the incumbent party solidly has a hold on that district. Likely Democrat/Republican means that the district appears solid but could become competitive. Lean Democrat/Republican means that the district is competitive but one party has a lead. Toss Up means the district is 50-50. With a tilt, it means that the party it tilts to has a 55%-60% chance of winning. You can view the maps at http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1: Rob Andrews (D) (Blue)

This district goes far out of the former area. It takes in Salem and parts of Cape May and Cumberland Counties. I gave it all of Gloucester but took out a lot of Camden County. I kept in Camden and some other heavily Democratic towns to keep it safe for Andrews. Obama probably won around 60% of the vote here. The district contains Gloucester County and parts of Camden, Cape May and Cumberland Counties. The stats are 17% Black and 14% Hispanic with a 66% white population. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R) (Green)

By taking out most of Cape May and adding part of Camden County, I hope I gave LoBiondo enough Democrats to be kicked out. I kept his home in this district so he would not be inclined to run against Rob Andrews and give him a tough race. I do not know who the challenger to Frank LoBiondo would be but I am sure the Democrats in Camden can find someone. I intended to make this district Democratic enough to throw out LoBiondo. The district contains Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Cape May and Ocean Counties. I estimate that Obama won it with about 55% to 59% of the vote. The stats are 13% African American, 9% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Toss Up if Lo Biondo runs, Lean Democrat if he bails out.

District 3 John Adler (D) (Purple)

Since he is a freshman Congressman who barely won in this district, my first priority was to protect him. I removed all of Ocean County from this district. I added part of Trenton and Mercer County which I estimate gives him an extra 15,000 to 20,000 vote margin for Obama. The margin for Obama in Burlington County is about 55,000 votes and Cherry Hill in Camden gave Obama a 10,000 vote margin. Even though I had to put a bit of Monmouth County in for population purposes, it should take more than 15,000 votes away from Adler. The district contains parts of Burlington, Camden, Monmouth and Mercer Counties. I estimate that Obama won here between 59% and 63% of the vote. The stats are 14% Black, 9% Hispanic and 69% White.  Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Chris Smith (R) (Red)

As much as I dislike Chris Smith, I decided to give him a safe Republican district. He was elected the same day Reagan was elected so I figured wherever I put him, he would hold his roots. I gave him most of Ocean County and southern Monmouth County, excluding Democratic precincts in Neptune and Asbury Park. I created this district to pack in all the Republicans so I could make the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th more Democratic. The district contains parts of Ocean and Monmouth Counties. The stats for this district are 7% Hispanic and 85% White. McCain probably won this area with a margin between 56% and 60%. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) vs. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Scott Garrett (R) (Yellow)

Now wasn’t that a good idea to put three Republicans in the same district? There is no question that a Republican will win this district. It contains all of Sussex and Warren Counties with parts of Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris and Somerset Counties. McCain probably won this with 57% to 61%. The question is which Republican will win it? It looks pretty masterful, sticking all these Republicans in the same district. Both Lance and Frelinghuysen are moderates. My biggest worry is that Frelinghuysen will run in the 11th district which I created for a Democrat. With his moderate voting record, Frelinghuysen could win it if he faces weak opposition. If Lance and Frelinghuysen faced off, I think Frelinghuysen would win because he is more entrenched in his district and he has more of it in District 5 than Lance does. Garrett’s old district only contains Sussex and Warren Counties. That could be enough to win. The district contains Sussex and Warren Counties as well as parts of Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic and Somerset counties. The stats are 86% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D) (Teal)

I had to remove some heavily Democratic areas such as Plainfield and part of New Brunswick mostly to strengthen the 7th and the 11th districts. Still, I kept enough Democratic areas in to keep the district strongly Democratic. Even though a lot of the district is in Monmouth County, I gave it Democratic areas like Neptune and Asbury Park. Since Pallone has been a Congressman here for awhile, he should be safe. I estimate that Obama won this district with about 58% to 61% of the vote. The district contains parts of Monmouth and Middlesex Counties. The racial stats for this district are 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) (Gray)

Yes, this district looks very safe for Rush Holt. Maybe I went a little too far to protect him, giving him parts of New Brunswick and Plainfield, heavily Democratic areas. I just wanted to protect him enough to make sure Lance decides not to run against him. I think Holt can handle himself but Lance is a pretty strong competitor. Lance won by 8 points in an open seat race in 2008. He ran in the 7th district and Obama won it. I think half of Trenton and the heavily Democratic areas in Middlesex and Plainfield should keep Holt safe. The district contains parts of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union Counties. I estimate that Obama won this district with about 57% to 62% of the vote. The stats are 16% Black, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 56% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Bill Pascrell (D) (Light Purple)

I’d like to tell Bill that I am sorry I had to push his district so far out into the not-so Democratic western Bergen County. Still, he should be fine in his district containing all of heavily Democratic Paterson and some other Democratic cities like Passaic. That portion of the county probably voted for Obama somewhere in the neighborhood of 50,000 votes. The Bergen County portion should not be more than 20,000 votes at the highest for McCain. This leaves Pascrell with a district that voted about 57% for Obama. This should be safe unless Scott Garrett surprisingly jumps into the race. That probably should not happen so it looks like Pascrell is safe for now. The district contains parts of Bergen, Essex and Passaic Counties. The racial stats for the district are 8% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 58% White. Status is Likely Democratic.

District 9 Steve Rotham (D) (Bright Blue)

Even though I extended his district far out to the New York border, I think Democratic margins in Hackensack and other Democratic areas will counter the Republican margins by a lot of votes. I think Obama won this district with 59% of the vote but I am not completely sure. This district should be safe for Steve Rotham. It contains parts of Bergen, Essex and Hudson Counties. The stats are 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat

District 10 Donald Payne (D) (Dark Pink)

I believe he is the safest Democrat in NJ. It was hard for me to keep it majority Black and I barely did. I wish I could give more of this district to strengthen the 8th and 11th but I could not because of the Voting Rights Act. It says that the 10th district will not be protected if it has less than a majority of a certain minority. I virtually tried to keep it the same as it is now. I estimate that Obama won here somewhere in the 85% range. The district contains parts of Essex, Hudson and Union Counties. The stats are 50% African American, 19% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 24% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 11 No Incumbent (Light Green)

My biggest fear is that Frelinghuysen will run in this district to prevent a challenging primary in the 5th. I tried to make the district as Democratic as possible and I removed Frelinghuysen’s home from it to discourage him from running here. I was careful to put in towns like Dover and Morristown which are heavily Democratic towns in Morris County. I also slipped this district into Essex County to take in areas that the 10th district did not contain. Even though the 10th contains all the heavily Democratic areas in Essex County, I still found room for some in the 11th district. I also extended it into Union County to take in the moderate suburbs of Westfield and Summit. Obama won them each by about 10 points. I was able to get part of heavily Democratic Plainfield into this district. It should be safe enough for a Democrat. The district contains parts of Essex, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and Union Counties. I think that Obama won with 54%-56% of the vote here. The racial stats are 9% Black, 9% Asian, 11% Hispanic and 71% White. Status is Toss up/Tilt Democratic if Frelinghuysen runs. Status is Likely Democrat if Frelinghuysen does not run here.

District 12 Albio Sires (D) (Light Blue)

I designed this district to be a Hispanic majority district. I just barely succeeded. Still, Sires should be safe from a primary challenge from a non Hispanic candidate. This is a pretty long and thin district. It stretches from Perth Amboy in Middlesex County and goes up to the Hudson/Bergen County border. The district contains parts of Essex, Hudson, Middlesex and Union Counties. I estimate that Obama won here with about 74% of the vote. The racial stats are 9% Black, 7% Asian, 50.0% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

(Cross-posted on WMR and BFM-PB)

According to Washington Post reporter Chris Cillizza, Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is dropping out of the gubernatorial bid later today, as well as endorsing rival candidate Mike Bouchard.

Bouchard Scores Major Endorsement: Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land will end her gubernatorial exploratory committee today and endorse Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard’s bid, according to a strategist close to Bouchard. Land and Bouchard will appear together at two stops — one in Grand Rapids and the other in Troy. Land’s support is an early boost for Bouchard, who lost badly to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in 2006, because she hails from the Republican-rich western part of the state and has impeccable social conservative credentials. Bouchard will still face a tough primary fight against state Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and businessman Rick Snyder in 2010.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

If Cillizza is correct, I think that this endorsement helps Bouchard gain some momentum.  However, I can’t see Land’s endorsement helping him gain lots of votes in western Michigan.  Land, while well known, doesn’t have the same endorsement creed that can appeal to primary voters such as DeVos.  In the end, I think that Land’s withdrawal is being high-fived around the Hoekstra campaign, as a major regional opponent in the Congressman’s home region is out, and he can troll for votes in SE Michigan while seeking to bank votes back in western Michigan.  If State Senate Tom George drops out, Hoekstra will have much of the western part of the state for himself, putting the three east side candidates (Bouchard, Synder and Cox) at a greater disadvanatge.  

There was a brief Jim Gerlach-for-Senate boomlet in the weeks following Arlen Specter’s party switch, when establishment GOP figures suddenly realized that they were going to have the Specter vs. Pat Toomey battle in the general instead of the closed GOP primary and that they might want a more palatable alternative. That seems to have gradually dissipated over the intervening months (as seen by John Cornyn‘s recent campaign contribution to Toomey), and today Gerlach made it clear he won’t be running in the Senate primary:

“That is pretty much off the table,” Gerlach, in an interview, said of the idea of a Senate run, which has lingered as a possibility since U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party in late April.

Asked if he would definitely run either for the House or governor of Pennsylvania, Gerlach responded: “I think that would be safe to say.”

Gerlach says that he’ll decide next month whether to pursue the Governor’s race (where he already has an exploratory committee open, although he may have a difficult shot against AG Tom Corbett, compounded by splitting the Philly suburban vote with former US Attorney Pat Meehan) or run for re-election in increasingly blue PA-06.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen | PA-Gov | PA-06

Man oh man:

Mark Sanford, the governor of South Carolina, said he had conducted an extra-marital affair with a woman in Argentina, ending a mystery over his week-long disappearance that had infuriated lawmakers and seemed to put his rising political career in jeopardy. He apologized for the affair and the deception surrounding his trip in a rambling news conference Wednesday afternoon.

Governor Sanford, 49, admitted that he had been in Buenos Aires since Thursday, not hiking on the Appalachian Trail as his staff had said. In revealing an affair that had gone on for about a year – and which he had disclosed to his wife, Jenny, five months ago – he said: “This was selfishness on my part.”

Mr. Sanford announced on Wednesday that as a result, he was resigning his position as chairman of the Republican Governors Association. His term leading the state of South Carolina is set to go through 2011.

I’m speechless. Given the pack of lies Sanford and his staff have been perpetrating over the last week, who even knows what else is going on here.

UPDATE: Haley Barbour will take over the RGA. That’s actually a good thing for Republicans, as Barbour actually understands something about politics.

• SC-Gov: You’ve probably already heard, but Mark Sanford finally turned up today, returning not from the Appalachian Trail but freakin’ Argentina, where apparently he decided to go for a spur-of-the-moment visit. Prepare a industrial-sized garbage bag full of popcorn for his 2 pm EDT press conference. [UPDATE: Well, in case you have a computer that only gets SSP and no other news outlets, it turns out that Sanford was in Argentina to break off an affair with an Argentinian woman he’d met via e-mail. He’s very sorry. He’s also resigning as head of the RGA.]

• AR-Sen: The Republican field of contenders to take on Blanche Lincoln just keeps getting bigger, and also keeps becoming more and more amateur-hour. Searcy “businessman” Fred Ramey entered the race (he owns a real estate investment company, which is apparently so successful that he also is a driver for Federal Express). Two other unknowns — retired Army colonel Conrad Reynolds and financial advisor Buddy Rogers — have also come forward to say they’re considering the race.

• FL-Sen: Mike Huckabee officially endorsed former state House speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary today (although he had already made his feelings clear in an earlier e-mail to supporters touting Rubio). Seeking to grab the movement-conservative flag as he looks to take advantage of the growing GOP schism as he heads toward 2012, he also tore into the NRSC, who held a big fundraiser for Charlie Crist on Monday attended by 15 GOP Senators. Says Huck: “The establishment Republicans have made this endorsement for the same reason that they’re in so much trouble. They go out there and support stuff like TARP bills and stimulus packages, pork-barrel spending and huge debt, and they wring their hands and act like, ‘This is not good, but we don’t have a choice.'”

• KY-Sen: AG Jack Conway, who’s facing off against Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo in the Dem Senate primary, has the endorsement of the state’s entire Democratic U.S. House delegation (all two of them). Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth will both be on hand today for a big Washington DC fundraiser for Conway.

• TX-Sen (pdf): Texas Lyceum released a wide-ranging poll of Texans; one question they asked was who people were supporting in the event of a special election for the Senate. Fully 71% were undecided on this as-yet-non-existent race, but of the eight candidates (all asked together, rather than grouped by party), Democratic Houston mayor Bill White had the most support, at 9%. Other Dem contender John Sharp was at 2%; the top GOPers, AG Greg Abbott and LG David Dewhurst, each were at 4%. (They also polled the gubernatorial primary, finding Gov. Rick Perry beating Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 33-21.)

• AK-Gov: Rumblings seem greater in the last few days that Sarah Palin is unlikely to run for a second term as Alaska governor, so that she can focus on a 2012 bid (and, in light of her declining statewide approvals, avoid the possibility of a career-ending loss in the governor’s election). (Potential opponent Andrew Halcro sums it up neatly: “If you’re Palin, once you’ve flown first class, you don’t go back to coach.”) With a recent Pew poll finding that Palin is the nation’s most popular Republican (key: among Republicans), striking while the iron is hot for 2012 makes sense. The DGA is certainly noticing, and they’re now touting Alaska as one of their four big pickup opportunities in a new fundraising e-mail (along with Florida, Georgia, and Minnesota… which might suggest they think California and Hawaii are in the bag).

• IL-Gov: A whole lot of longshots are piling up in the GOP column in the Illinois governor’s race, which now includes political consultant and TV commentator Dan Proft. Six other GOPers, none of whom seem known statewide, are already in the hunt.

• TX-Gov: State senator Leticia Van de Putte, whose name had cropped up a lot in connection with the Democratic nomination for Governor in recent weeks, released a statement yesterday saying she won’t run. Interestingly, instead of endorsing Tom Schieffer — whose Democratic credentials are kind of iffy — she suggested that fellow state Senator Kirk Watson should run instead.

• AL-02: No time for Congress, Dr. Love! Republican State Rep. and 2008 losing candidate Jay Love decided against a rematch with freshman Rep. Bobby Bright. The exit of Love, who barely lost in this R+16 district last time, means that Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby may escape a noxious primary (the GOP’s main problem last time).

• CA-11: Two Republican members of the Board of Supervisors of San Joaquin County (where almost half of this R+1 district’s votes are located) endorsed Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney yesterday, pleased with his constituent services and work to bring a VA hospital to the area.

• CA-50: We’re looking at a three-way Democratic primary in this R+3 district in northern San Diego county. Solana Beach city councilor Dave Roberts (a former Brian Bilbray supporter) is considering the race and will decide by July whether to jump in. He’d bring one advantage to his race against two-time candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem: he’s actually been elected to something.

• PA-06: PA2010’s Dan Hirschhorn observes that with a series of top-tier hires, Doug Pike is looking more and more like he’ll have the Dem field to himself. Pike has hired Neil Oxman’s Campaign Group to do his media, who’ve worked not only for Gov. Ed Rendell but also for former Senate candidate Joe Torsella and ’02 candidate Dan Wofford — both of whom have had their names tossed around as the most likely other people to run in PA-06. I’d initially assumed the never-before-elected journalist was something of a placeholder until someone higher on the food chain got in the race, but with these hires and the DCCC constantly touting him, it seems clear that Pike is impressing the right people.

• PA-15: Good news out of the Lehigh Valley: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan, who a few months ago had rebuffed requests that he run against Rep. Charlie Dent, may have had a change of heart. Callahan has approached Democratic party leaders about the race, and is now reportedly “seriously considering” running in this D+2 district.

• TN-03: Attorney and radio talk show host Chuck Fleischmann will formally announce his entry into the GOP primary field today in the Chattanooga-based R+13 3rd. Bradley Co. Sheriff Tim Gobble is already running, and former GOP state chair Robin Smith looks like she’ll get in, too.

• NY-St. Sen.: As if the standoff over control of the New York State Senate, tied 31-31, couldn’t get any more embarrassing, yesterday both parties held dueling special sessions… at the same time, in the same room, shouting to be heard over each other, with each side claiming to pass its own bills. Negotations to create a power-sharing arrangement have more or less collapsed.

• Voting Rights: Oregon just became the fourth state to allow online voter registration, joining Washington, California, and Arizona. One less reason to have to get up from behind your computer.