Month: August 2009

What’s with all the prominent Republicans unable to even make it through their first terms? Today Mel Martinez joins the club of lame-duck GOPers unwilling to be dead fish going with the flow, and instead is going to maverick his way on up and out of the Senate:

He made the announcement at a morning staff meeting, where he said he will not be returning to the Senate after the August recess.

Martinez announced he wasn’t seeking re-election to the Senate last December, but he had insisted that he would be serving out the remainder of his term, which expires in 2011.

Martinez is reportedly interested in the presidency of Florida St. University, which opened up in June. So he may already have lined that up, or maybe he’s just decided to jump out of the plane first and find out the color of his parachute on the way down. (Can life in the minority really be that bad?) Well, like the refrigerator magnet says, he doesn’t need to explain himself to his enemies.

So now the big question is: what does Charlie Crist do? Florida doesn’t have a fast special election law like Texas, so Crist has to appoint someone for the remaining year and a half of Martinez’s term. With Crist already running for the open seat in 2010, there’s certainly the possibility he could appoint himself. He’ll have to weigh, though, whether that would help or hurt him for 2010, whether any incumency advantage he’d gain would outweigh the perceived impropriety of appointing himself. If he doesn’t appoint himself, who’s a likely elder-statesperson placeholder he might appoint? He wouldn’t want to appoint anyone who might turn around and decide to stay in the Senate, and he wouldn’t want to appoint anyone too moderate either, as he doesn’t want to rile up an already hostile Republican base, seeing as how his most immediate problem in 2010 is getting past Marco Rubio’s primary challenge from the right. (Discussion underway in DTMB!‘s diary.)

UPDATE (James L.): The Associated Press confirms that Crist will not appoint himself to the big show. Smart move on his part — right now, he’s the likely GOP nominee and the likely Senator-elect come November 2010. A self-appointment would only create controversy.

LATER UPDATE: The Palm Beach Post fingers FSU Board of Trustees Chairman (and ex-state AG) Jim Smith as Crist’s likely choice for placeholder.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/3-5, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 48 (46)

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4%)

Being down by “only eight” is about as rosy as it has gotten for Corzine over the last month. The glimmer of hope for Corzine here is that many of the undecideds are minority voters; 28% of African-American voters, 18% of Hispanics, and another 18% of “Others” are still noncommittal, while only 4% of whites are still on the fence — a slice of the electorate where Christie is enjoying a monstrous 58-34 lead. (Hat-tip: andgarden)

And now for Virginia…

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/3-5, likely voters, 6/15-17 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 43 (44)

Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (45)

Undecided: 6 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

The fact that this one isn’t as ugly as PPP‘s findings (McDonnell +14) or SUSA‘s (M+15) is cold comfort right now. Again, if the 22% of African-American voters who are on the fence come home to Deeds, the margin becomes quite a bit tighter, but Deeds will need to shave off some McDonnell voters in order to get the job done.

Another point of interest here is that R2K finds Deeds ahead by 65-27 in “Northern Virgina”. Of course, I’m not sure how exactly R2K has defined NoVA, but SUSA had Northeast Virginia going for McConnell by 56-41 in their polling last week. (PPP found the 703 going to Deeds by a very limp 51-44 margin.) In any case, these are the voters that Deeds will have to excite, so it’s time to get cracking.

RaceTracker Wiki: NJ-Gov | VA-Gov

    State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex, currently the only statewide elected Democrat in South Carolina, plans to file paperwork today to form an exploratory committee to look at running for governor in 2010. Rex says he will make a decisions on whether to run by September. Rex could also choose to run for reelection for his current post.

     If Rex chooses to run this could be a game changer for the good guys. Jim Rex has spent much of his life working in higher education ( President of Columbia College, Dean of Education at Winthrop University and Coastal Carolina University, and Vice President at the University of South Carolina). Education should be a big issue in next year’s election due to fallout from a statewide tax swap that has made public school’s more reliant on revenue from the sales tax. There is fear this will cause a budget crunch for many school districts and this is an issue that Jim Rex could exploit. It also worth remembering that Jim Hodges won the 1998 governor’s race by emphasizing funding for education.

     This is an important race for Democrats. While I personally think South Carolina is going to be heavily Republican for the forseeable future, in order to begin to win in places like South Carolina, we need a base to build off of. If we control the governor’s office, it will give us somebody to build the party around. Given the fact that Jim Rex has a statewide profile and organization, he would clearly be our best candidate. While it would still be a tough race, this drastically improves our chances of winning this race.

     

• CT-Sen: Political expediency makes you do weird things. Shortly after ultra-conservative Pat Tooomey, facing minor opposition in the Pennsylvania GOP primary but having to remodel himself for the general, came out in support of Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination, now moderate Rob Simmons, facing serious opposition from the right in the Connecticut GOP primary, has come out against Sotomayor.

• IL-Sen: A poll from Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (no mention on whose behalf the poll was taken) finds that state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias should have little trouble gaining the Democratic nomination for the Senate race. In a 3-way matchup, he gets 45% of the vote, with businessman Chris Kennedy at 17% and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson at 13%. However, Kennedy seems to be backing down from the race and may instead run for Governor if he runs for anything; a 2-way matchup between Giannoulias and Jackson gives Giannoulias a 51-21 edge.

• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, opthalmologist and son of former Presidential candidate Ron Paul, officially kicked off his race for the GOP Senate nomination. And here’s an interesting choice: he’s making the kickoff announcement in New York City, saying that it’s a national race and that, according to a spokesperson, “If he makes it to the Senate and votes in D.C., he’ll vote for people in New York and in California. His vote matters that much.” Yeah… I’m sure that’ll play really well among the actual people in Kentucky, that their Senator will be voting on behalf of New Yorkers and Californians.

• NH-Sen: After a lot of criticism on the ground in New Hampshire, especially from the editorial page of the influential (among right-wingers) Manchester Union-Leader, John Cornyn is backing down from plans to coronate Kelly Ayotte with an NRSC fundraiser in DC in September, and said that the planned fundraiser hadn’t been an endorsement. Dean at Blue Hampshire wonders when the NRSC Ovide Lamontagne fundraiser will be.

• NY-Gov: While the general sense is that behind-the-scenes power brokers are giving David Paterson a little more time to turn the polls around before trying to usher him out the door, 11 labor leaders in Buffalo aren’t waiting. They sent a letter to Andrew Cuomo — whose official story is that he’s running for re-election as AG, but whose private interest is well-known — urging him to run and, while not guaranteeing him their endorsement, saying they look forward to him running.

• SC-Gov: It looks like Democrats may have landed a top-tier candidate for the 2010 gubernatorial race: state superintendent of education Jim Rex, SC’s only statewide elected Democrat. Few had expected the 67-year-old Rex to get into the field (which already contains state Sens. Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford and attorney Mullins McLeod), based on his fundraising so far. But, he may have sensed an opening, despite South Carolina’s red hue, in the wake of Mark Sanford’s implosion (and the way it laid bare a lot of people’s concerns with his possible general election opponent, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer). Rex has formed an exploratory committee to start raising funds for a gubernatorial bid, and says he’ll make a final decision on the race “by early September”.

• CA-10: The GOP added one more Young Gun this week (as an “On the Radar” pick, which I assume is analogous to R2B’s “Emerging” picks last year): attorney David Harmer, the guy who’s running for the Republicans in September’s special election. At D+11, I’m not sure what I can add, other than “good luck with that.”

• CA-47: Speaking of Young Guns, Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in this Latino-majority D+4 district, was a surprise inclusion in the program (well, maybe not that surprising, since he’s been fundraising well in the larger Vietnamese community). However, his primary opponent, Quang Pham, isn’t daunted, and has now set a $250K goal of his own for the end of next quarter; he’ll be including some of his own funds toward that goal.

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who now lives in the Orlando area, confirmed that he won’t run as a Republican for the 24th next year. Reports came out yesterday that he’d talked to the NRCC about a run. Three Republicans, including two termed-out state Reps, are already in the race against Dem freshman Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Another Republican may get into the race to replace Rep. Mark Kirk: businesswoman Renee Thaler, a former official in ex-Gov. Jim Edgar’s administration, formed an exploratory committee. State Rep. Beth Coulson is the only elected GOPer interested in the race, along with businessman Dick Green and attorneys Jim Koch and Bill Cadigan.

• NH-02: The Democratic field in the open seat race in the 2nd got smaller, though; former state Sen. and gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald dropped out the race, citing family reasons. Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is the only candidate officially in the race, although party insider Katrina Swett is expected by all to get in soon.

• PA-06: The primary fight is on, for the GOP, in the open seat race in PA-06. Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello entered the race; he’ll face off against state Rep. Curt Schroder, who has already been preparing for the race for many months. Democratic candidate Doug Pike is still unopposed, at least for now.

• Where Are They Now?: On their way to prison, that’s where. Former Rep. Bill Jefferson was convicted on 11 of 16 counts, including a RICO charge which carries a possible 20-year sentence. (Thanks to Joe Cao for hustling Jefferson out the door before he could be convicted while still a sitting Democratic Representative, saving us some bad PR.) Also, in yesterday’s comments, Fitzy has a hilarious and must-read timeline of the slow decline of Sharon Renier, our 04 and 06 candidate in MI-07, who, in the wake of her primary loss in a recent state Senate special election, has quite literally gone off the reservation.

With all the talk of redistricting around here, I wanted to let people know about an upcoming panel on the topic at Netroots Nation in Pittsburgh.  

The panel titled “Redistricting is Coming! Why Progressives Must Focus on the State Legislature in 2010 and How You Can Help” will be held on:

Thursday, August 13th at 4:30 p.m. in Rooms 301/302 at the Conference Center.

The panel will cover redistricting and recent history but will have a more intense focus on how Democrats can create a “permanent majority” beginning in 2010 at the state legislative level. The panel will look at what we can do to help ensure that redistricting happens in our favor, from finding key races to actively support across the country to running for office at a local level.  

The panel will feature blogger Matt Glazer from Burnt Orange Report, Matt Compton the DLCC Communications Director, Sam Bennett from the Women’s Campaign Forum, and State Rep. Chelsa Wagner (D-Pittsburgh. Christopher Massicotte, Director of Sales and Marketing for NGP, will moderate the panel discussion and interactive questioning. Join us for the event if you will be attending Netroots, the Facebook event is at http://bit.ly/qS1So.  

But even if you are unable to make it, you can follow the action @leftyngp on Twitter or submit your own questions by using the hashtag, #redistricting2010.

Hope to see you all in Pittsburgh, or at least get some great questions for what should be an interesting panel!

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

Last cycle, I started an ActBlue page specifically for Democratic Senate candidates working to pick up seats held by Republicans.  I named it the Expand the Map! ActBlue page because the goal was to expand the map of competitive Senate seats.  The effort was a big success, achieving over 300 contributions and $40,000 for the Democratic Senate candidates included on the page.

Today, I kicked off the 2010 edition of the Expand the Map! ActBlue page with three Democratic candidates for Senate: Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, New Hampshire Congressman Paul Hodes, and Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak.

Click here to visit the Expand the Map! ActBlue page!

In New Hampshire and Missouri, we have the strongest candidates available, candidates who will also make terrific Democratic Senators.  In both races, however, fundraising will always be a top priority.  Missouri Republican Roy Blunt will be able to tap his lobbyist buddies and corrupt cronies for cash ad nauseum.  No doubt the NRSC will also make holding New Hampshire a top priority; and the D.C. GOP establishment has already begun fawning over Palin-esque quitter Kelly Ayotte.  Carnahan and Hodes need our support!  A few years back, all four of New Hampshire’s and Missouri’s combined Senate seats were held by Republicans.  Wouldn’t it feel great to have flipped all four?

In Pennsylvania, y’all know the deal.  Arlen Specter was a Republican Senator for decades.  Even though he changed his Party affiliation, he’s still not a Democrat as far as I’m concerned.  Joe Sestak is a real Democrat, and he – not Specter – should win the Democratic primary.  But Specter has a significant edge when it comes to campaign cash; and, Ed Rendell will do all he can to shut off Sestak’s fundraising.  Let Specter, Rendell, etc. know that they can’t shut down the netroots by supporting Sestak!

Please, please, please help kick off the 2010 cycle’s Expand the Map! effort by sending these highly deserving Democrats a few bucks.  $100 makes a huge difference, $20 makes a huge difference, $10 makes a huge difference!  Hop over to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and make your voice heard.

This is not just a contribution to these Democrats’ campaigns.  This is a contribution toward slowing and eventually stopping Republican obstruction in the U.S. Senate.  Thank you SO much!

It’s been a pretty good day for the DCCC so far today, and it just got a bit better: St. Lucie Co. Commissioner Chris Craft, who has been the party’s top choice to challenge frosh GOP Rep. Tom Rooney after state Sen. Dave Aronberg declined the race, has announced that he will run. From the Palm Beach Post:

“I’m running for Congress because we need a representative who has shared the struggles of hardworking Floridians and can relate to the people of this district,” said Craft, who pledged to work with Republicans and Democrats as a “moderate voice” in Washington.

Craft, 36, was recruited by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee after the party failed to woo state Sen. Dave Aronberg, D-Greenacres, to challenge Rooney. Aronberg instead launched a bid for attorney general in June.

Rooney’s going to be a pretty challenging incumbent to beat, given his slam-dunk 60-40 win over disgraced Democrat Tim Mahoney and the district’s overall slight Republican lean (it’s supported Republican presidential nominees by anywhere between 5 and 8 points in the last three cycles). However, it’s always a good idea to keep a frosh Republican on his toes — especially with redistricting looming around the corner.

RaceTracer Wiki: FL-16

It looks like pesky GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi is about to face his most legit challenger in years. From the Columbus Dispatch:

Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks said today she will challenge Rep. Pat Tiberi of Genoa Township in next year’s congressional election.

Brooks’ decision to run for Congress sets up what could be the toughest race Tiberi has faced since his 2000 election in the 12th Congressional District. Brooks, 56, has twice won voter approval across Franklin County, including an easy re-election last year.

In a Dispatch telephone interview today, Brooks said she has a “burning desire” to get the country “through these tough times. Frankly, people in the district say they are disappointed in the current member and they want a fresh approach to tackling these tough problems.”

Brooks said that Gov. Ted Strickland and Mayor Michael B. Coleman have both pledged to support her effort to unseat Tiberi. She said the major issues would be “jobs, health care, and our military families and security.”

Brooks, as you may recall, briefly ran for Franklin County’s other congressional seat (OH-15) last cycle, before deferring to Mary Jo Kilroy. Now she’s back for a crack at the 12th, a district that was hand-carved for the GOP during redistricting, but has since shifted in the Dem direction. Bush won this CD by 52-46 in 2000, but that margin tightened to 51-49 four years later. Obama finally blew the doors open last year, by winning the district by a 53-46 spread according to SSP’s analysis of the precinct returns.

However, Tiberi has been a tough candidate to beat; octogenarian and ex-Rep. Bob Shamansky put up a valiant effort in 2006, but Tiberi smashed the old man with a 16-point romp. Even as Obama turned this district blue last year, Tiberi cruised to a 55-42 victory over underfunded Democrat Mike Robinson. Still, Brooks will definitely bring a stronger profile to this race than either Shamansky or Robinson could offer. Her most glaring weakness? She lives just “eight minutes” outside of the 12th CD’s border.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-12