Month: August 2009

• NV-Sen: Looks like John Ensign might be starting to get the Jim Bunning treatment from GOP Senate leadership even though it’s three years till he’s up in 2012. Today John Cornyn made a point of refusing to endorse Ensign when asked, instead retreating to boilerplate about giving him the time and space to work out his issues. This follows revelations earlier this week from the Las Vegas Sun detailing how Ensign’s staff, contrary to earlier claims, knew about Ensign’s affair almost one year before it became public.

• NH-Sen: As the GOP establishment annointment of Kelly Ayotte as Senate candidate continues apace, she’s nailed down former Gov. Steve Merrill (who had been touted as a possible candidate himself) as her campaign co-chair.

• NC-Sen: Polls have shown that voters are pretty lukewarm about Richard Burr, and now comments from Burr suggest that he’s pretty lukewarm about being Senator, too. By way of decrying the increased partisanship on the Hill (by which he no doubt means being in the minority), he says “When people ask me if I enjoy what I’m doing, now is the time that I try not to answer the question.”

• OH-Gov: While the fundraising numbers in the Ohio Secretary of State’s race that we talked about yesterday are a cause for concern, Dems are doing well in the two other races that will determine control of the legislative reapportionment board. Not just the Governor’s race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is far outpacing Republican ex-Rep. John Kasich ($2.5 million to $516K), but also Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper, who is challenging incumbent Republican Auditor Mary Taylor, and leading the money chase $317K to $107K. Cumulatively, Democrats in the state House have also more than doubled up on their Republican colleagues.

• PA-07: Now that Joe Sestak has made it official that he’s running for Senate, that puts the wheels in motion in the 7th. Democratic State Rep. Bryan Lentz says he’ll make a formal announcement of his candidacy in the next month. Lentz doesn’t seem like he’ll have the Dem field to himself, though; state Rep. Greg Vitali says he’s also considering the race. On the GOP side, businessman Steven Welch is staffing up for his campaign; unless Pat Meehan does an about-face and drops down from the gubernatorial race, Welch seems likely to have the field to himself.

• Ads: Prepare to watch and hear nothing but ads about health care reform for the next month. The Club for Growth is running ads playing up the “deather” line of argument, targeting Democratic congressional delegations in Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado, and North Dakota. On the Dem side, the DNC is running health care radio ads on behalf of 19 House members (Driehaus, Dahlkemper, Kirkpatrick, Giffords, McNerney, Perlmutter, Kosmas, Grayson, Walz, Heinrich, Titus, Maffei, Massa, Kilroy, Boccieri, Space, Wilson, Nye, and Kagen).

• DE-St. Sen.: A Republican, state Rep. Joe Booth, won a vacant Senate seat in a special election that had been held by the Democrats for decades (of course, it was always the same Democrat: state Senate President Pro Tem Thurman Adams recently passed away, after holding the seat for 37 years). Booth defeated Adams’ daughter, Polly Adams Mervine, who’d never run for office before. The victory in this rural seat in Republican-leaning Sussex County brings the GOP total in the state Senate up to a whopping 6 (Dems hold 15 seats). One silver lining is that Democrats now have a shot at picking up Booth’s House seat, where their margin is narrower and could use some padding (they control the state House for the first time in ages, by a 24-16 margin with the 1 vacancy).

• FL-St. Sen.: Remember Joe Negron, the Republican state Rep. who lost to slimy Tim Mahoney in the 2006 FL-16 election (largely due to the fact that his name was listed as “Mark Foley” on the ballot)? Well, he’s back in the legislature, this time as a Senator, winning a special election yesterday to take over from Republican Ken Pruitt, who’s stepping down from the solidly Republican seat for health reasons.

It was a big day in Pennsylvania, with Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak formally announcing his primary challenge to recent convert Arlen Specter this morning. Sestak faces a major challenge in going up against an incumbent backed by the White House and sitting on big leads in the polls, but he likes it that way:

“I love being the underdog,” Sestak said. “A lot of room to grow. Seventy percent of the people don’t know me enough to make a decision, and I’m going to give them that opportunity.”

In a D-on-D primary like this, with Arlen Specter being forced to smooth out his long list of conservative votes as part of the GOP caucus for decades, hitting back against Sestak isn’t an easy thing to do… but Specter’s team is making the effort. From the miracle of human and technological evolution that is Twitter:

“His months of indecisiveness on his candidacy raises a real question as to his competency to handle the tough rapid-fire decisions required of a Senator,” Specter wrote.

“During his continuing taxpayer-financed self-promotion tour around the State, Sestak should explain why, when Pennsylvanians are working harder, he can barely show up for work.”

Sestak will try to make Specter answer for a laundry list of crappy votes (from Iraq to Bush’s economic agenda) — votes that the recent progressive convert will have a hard time justifying, so he’ll try to make this primary be a referendum on his seniority, and, I guess, record of “getting things done”. Somehow I think Sestak has the saucier narrative.

Meanwhile, a somewhat hilarious sideshow to this Dem fracas is likely GOP nominee Pat Toomey’s pivot to the left, most recently witnessed today by his support for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor. With no primary competition to force his hand, it looks like Toomey will be attempting to quietly put distance between himself and the insanity of his Club For Growth brand of politics by making a few of these easy concessions to the center. Let’s see how far this takes him.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

As the critical governor’s race approaches this fall, the New Jersey State AFL-CIO has launched a new website, The Real Chris Christie, to take a closer look at the Republican challenger and where he stands on key issues.

Chris Christie, who got a political appointment as a U.S. attorney after raising more than $350,000 for George W. Bush, is running as “reformer,” but voters need to know what Christie would do as governor. Where does he stand on the critical issues facing New Jersey?

The Real Chris Christie looks past the rhetoric and examines where Christie stands on critical issues like the economy, health care, education and workers’ rights, as well as ethical issues and his long-standing support of Bush.

<!–more–>

Here are some important facts available at The Real Chris Christie:

• Christie wants to cut corporate tax rates at the expense of critical health, education and housing programs for working families.
• Christie is proposing changes to health care that would allow insurance companies to deny claims and refuse to cover preventative care like mammograms.
• Christie opposes funding for pre-K programs for young children.
• Christie opposes paid medical leave for workers, project labor agreements and collective bargaining.
• Christie has awarded no-bid contracts to friends and political allies.

Visit The Real Chris Christie to find out more. It’s an important resource as we approach the Nov. 3 election.

Cross-posted from the AFL-CIO Now Blog.

• DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle yesterday told a radio interviewer that he’d decide “in the next month or so” what, if anything, he’s going to run for. One possible hint, though, is that he said that there are some “good young elected officials in the state who possibly could run on a statewide basis and should be looked at,” and he specifically named some state legislators like state sen. Charlie Copeland and state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle.

• FL-Sen: Here’s another sign of trouble looming in the GOP primary for Charlie Crist, at least within the activist base, hot on the heels of his big loss in the Pasco County straw poll. The Volusia County GOP actually voted to censure him, over a list of grievances including his moderate judicial appointments, support of the Obama stimulus, and lack of support for Tom Feeney and Ric Keller last year. (Volusia Co.’s main city is Daytona Beach and population is over 400,000, so this isn’t one of those little Dixiecrat panhandle counties, either.)

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk downplayed the story of his Tweeting while on active military duty (as a Naval Reservist) at a news conference yesterday, but apologized for having done so.

• NH-Sen: Skepticism behind-the-scenes seems to be growing in New Hampshire, especially among conservative activists, about the ordination of Kelly Ayotte as Senate candidate, handed down from on high from the Beltway. Various on- and off-the-record insiders are unsure of her political leanings, ‘meh’ about her speaking style, and worried that she’s never had to raise funds before. A lot of this agitation has been coming from the state’s largest paper, the Manchester Union-Leader, which has a notably hard-right editorial page and has been fannish of likely primary opponent Ovide Lamontagne in the past.

• MN-Gov: This seemed to slip through the cracks last week, but Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak is sounding more like a candidate now. While giving a stump-ish speech to local Democrats, Rybak said that he’s “very likely” to enter the open seat gubernatorial race.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): In another indication that things are getting worse, not better, for Jon Corzine, the new poll from Monmouth shows him trailing Chris Christie by 14 points among likely voters, 50-36, with 4% to independent Chris Daggett. This is particularly troublesome because Monmouth has been the pollster most favorable to Corzine; he trailed by only 8 in the July poll. Interestingly, though, Corzine trails by only 4 (43-39) among registered voters, a narrower gap than in July — suggesting that his only hope is getting a lot of unlikely voters to turn out. Democrats countered with their own internal poll (pdf) today, showing Corzine down by “only” 7, 42-35-6.

• TX-Gov: You may recall that the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign decided to pull the hidden phrase “rick perry gay” from its website’s code, but left a bunch of other hidden phrases (in the code, not meta-tags). That’s a big-time search-engine optimization party foul, though, and it led to Google and Yahoo pulling the website from their search indexes this weekend.

• CA-10: State Senator Mark DeSaulnier may have lost one of his most potent weapons: the State Department asked him to stop using the endorsement of his predecessor (and current Undersecretary of State for arms control) Ellen Tauscher. It’s not illegal, but they want to avoid any ethical impropriety. The primary special election is Sept. 1.

• FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas may find herself up against a celebrity candidate next year: former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who now lives in the Orlando area. Holtz has been in contact with the NRCC about the race, and certainly brings name recognition, but comes with a couple drawbacks: one, he’s 72 years old, ancient for a House freshman, and two, he raised some eyebrows last year after having to apologize for calling Hitler a great leader.

• LA-02: Kudos to Rep. Joseph Cao for having the courage to say out loud what we’re all thinking: “I know that voting against the health care bill will probably be the death of my political career.” Strange to give that sort of ammunition to potential opponents when it’s clear from his fundraising that he’s intending to run again.

• LA-03: Scott Angelle, natural resources secretary under both Kathleen Blanco and Bobby Jindal and former Democratic St. Martin parish president, is maintaining his interest in the possibly-vacant LA-03 seat. However, rumor has it that he may run for the seat as a Republican, and he did go on the record saying he’d “consider” swapping party labels (which are especially porous in Louisiana). State Rep. Nickie Monica says he’s in the race (as a Republican) regardless of whether or not Charlie Melancon pulls the trigger on a Senate run. One other Democrat not mentioned before who’s considering the race is 27-year-old New Orleans corporate lawyer Ravi Sangisetty, who grew up in Houma.

• MD-01: State Sen. Andy Harris is taking steps to solve one of the two problems that hampered him in last year’s election against Rep. Frank Kratovil: he’s coming to the Eastern Shore. He isn’t moving, but he will be working part-time (he’s a mild-mannered anesthesiologist by day) at the hospital in Salisbury, in order to bolster his Eastern Shore cred. It’ll be a little harder to paper over his other problem, which is that he’s a Club for Growth wacko. Harris was just named one of the NRCC’s Young Guns, despite the fact that he might still face a primary against less conservative and Eastern Shore-based state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who seems like he’d pick up most of the votes that went for Wayne Gilchrest in the 2008 primary (although Pipkin may be looking at running for state Comptroller instead).

• NY-23: Despite interest from some colorful-sounding “activists,” it looks like the Conservative Party line in the upcoming special election is likely to go to a more establishment figure, accountant Doug Hoffman, who you may recall was one of the Republican wannabes not selected by the party apparatus. Hoffman attacked the hypothetical Democratic nominee and GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava as “Mr. Bad or Mrs. Worse.”

• MO-03: Rep. Russ Carnahan doesn’t usually draw more than a passing glance from the GOP in his D+7 district, but it looks like he’ll have a somewhat credible opponent in 2010. Ed Martin opened an exploratory committee for the race; he hasn’t been elected before, but has consummate insider credentials as Gov. Matt Blunt’s chief of staff for four years.

• RI-02: In an almost-one-party state like Rhode Island, primary challenges are a routine part of life. Rep. Jim Langevin fought off a primary challenge from professor Jennifer Lawless in 2006; in 2010, he’ll likely face state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan (who had been planning to run for Lt. Governor, but had to drop that plan when incumbent Elizabeth Roberts decided to run for re-election instead of Governor). Although abortion was the flashpoint in 2006 (Langevin is pro-life), Dennigan says she won’t make much of an issue of it.

• TX-23: Pete Sessions is probably pounding his head on his desk right now. After getting self-funder Quico Canseco to come back for a clear shot at Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the 23rd, Bexar Co. Commissioner Lyle Larson, who upset Canseco in the GOP primary in 2008, is saying he’s thinking of coming back for another try — potentially setting up another self-destructive primary.

• WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind is facing a real opponent for the first time in a while. State Sen. Dan Kapanke, who’s been acting candidate-ish for a long time, made it official yesterday that he’ll challenge the 14-year incumbent in 2010.

• OH-SoS: With Jennifer Brunner giving up her job to run in the Senate primary, the Secretary of State open seat race is turning into one of Ohio’s hottest tickets. While Democratic Franklin Co. Commissioner Marilyn Brown is in the race, she is trailing GOP state Sen. Jon Husted (who has $1.3 million) by about a 10-to-1 ratio for cash-on-hand. Now a second Democrat, state Rep. Jennifer Garrison from Marietta in the state’s southeast, is getting into the race. It’s a key race, as the SoS is one of the votes on the 5-member state legislative apportionment board, which Dems currently control 3-2, and which they’ll need to hold if they’re going to undo Republican-favorable gerrymanders in the state legislature.

Public Policy Polling (7/31-8/3, registered voters, 6/30-7/2 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 37 (43)

Bob McDonnell (R): 51 (49)

Jody Wagner (D): 34 (40)

Bill Bolling (R-inc): 48 (46)

Steve Shannon (D): 32 (38)

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Wow, these are scary ugly numbers all around. Tom Jensen has more:

The biggest problem hampering Deeds right now is a lack of enthusiasm among Democrats for coming out to vote this fall. Although Barack Obama took Virginia 52-46 last November, those planning to vote in this year’s election report having voted for John McCain by a margin of 52-41. Put another way, roughly 60% of people who voted for McCain last fall are planning to come out while only 42% of those who voted for Obama are. He probably needs to generate enough excitement around his candidacy to get out closer to 55% of those Obama voters if he’s going to win.

There are some signs within the poll that Deeds’ standing is likely to improve. For instance two of the largest groups of undecided voters are African Americans and those under 30, both groups that were very favorable to Barack Obama last year. He has a 64-3 lead with blacks and seems likely to pick up most of the undecideds as the election comes closer.

Still it’s clear there’s a lot of work to do. For instance his lead in northern Virginia is only 51-44 and among all voters describing themselves as suburbanites he trails McDonnell 51-37. By comparison a PPP survey right before the election last year showed Obama winning those folks 58-38, meaning at this point there’s basically a 34 point turnaround with those voters.

As Jensen says, it’s still too early to count Deeds out, but this looks to be the most challenging gubernatorial election for Democrats in Virginia in several cycles. Even during the 2005 campaign, which was no walk in the park for Tim Kaine, Republicans never enjoyed a lead this big. Democrats have good reason to be very concerned here.

Discussion is already underway in Conspiracy’s diary.

I have been working on a concept I’m calling PBI or Party Brand Index, as a replacement for PVI.  PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which is measured by averaging voting percentage from the last two presidential elections in each house district, and comparing it to how the nation as a whole voted, is a useful shorthand for understanding the liberal v. conservative dynamics of a district. But in my opinion it falls short in a number of areas. First it doesn’t explain states like Arkansas or West Virginia. These states have districts who’s PVI indicates a Democrat shouldn’t win, yet Democrats (outside of the presidency) win quite handily. Secondly why is this the case in Arkansas but not Oklahoma with similar PVI rated districts?

Secondly PVI can miss trends as it takes 4 years to readjust. The main purpose of Party Brand Index is to give a better idea of how a candidate does not relative to how the presidential candidate did, but compared to how their generic PARTY would be expected to perform. This week I’ll tackle North Carolina.

Last week I tackled Colorado and Virginia in PBI part 2. My general strategy is to work my way “out” from swing states.

Some of the divergences between PBI and PVI in North Carolina are, Rep. Etheridge who has won by margins of between 29-36% goes from being in a lean GOP district to a safe Democratic district. Similarly Rep. McIntyre who has won with between 44 – 37% of the vote goes from being in a lean GOP district (-5 PVI) to a moderate democratic one of (+11 PBI).

For more North Carolina fun in 2008, the Civitas Institute premiered the North Carolina Partisan Index using data from the 2004 General Election. Even though the Civitas Institute is libertarian their numbers and calculations are open sourced, and are valid.

This year, we have updated the NCPI to reflect voters’ choices in the 2008 General Election.

Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index developed for congressional districts, the North Carolina Partisan Index compares the political leanings of voters in each state house and senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. The end result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other.

The new NCPI was developed using adjusted 2008 data on the elections for Governor and other council of state offices – Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Commissioners of Agriculture, Labor, and Insurance, Secretary of State, State Auditor, State Treasurer, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.

______________________________________________________________________________



As a reminder I will review how I calculate Party Brand Index.

To compute PBI I basically did the following. I weighed the last 3 presidential elections by a factor of 0.45. Presidential preference is the most indicative vote since it’s the one politician people follow the most. The POTUS is the elected official people identify with or despise the most, thus illuminating their own ideological identification. I then weighed each house seat by 0.35. House seats are gerrymandered and the local leader can most closely match their districts make up in a way the POTUS can’t. So even though they have a lower profile I still gave them a heavy weight. Lastly I gave the last two Senate elections a weight of 0.2. Senatorial preference can make a difference, although I think it’s less than that of the President or the House members. Also (more practically) because I have to back calculate (estimate) Senate result totals from county results, a smaller number helps lessen the “noise” caused by any errors I may make. Under my system Democratic leaning have a positive number, the GOP has a negative number.

I then developed a way to weight for incumbents.  The reelection numbers for incumbents is so high it would be a mistake to weight a district solely on the fact that an incumbent continues to get elected. There is a long list of districts that have PVI that deviate from their incumbent members, whom none the less keep getting elected. These districts then change parties as soon as the incumbent member retires. This is evidence that incumbency can disguise the ideology of voters in a district.

Next I added a weighting of about 7% for House members. I remember reading that incumbency is worth about 5-10%. Nate wrote in a 538.com article that a VP pick from a small state was worth about a 7% swing, a house seat could in fact be thought of as a small state, that seems as good a number as any to start from. Conversely I will deduct 7% from an incumbents win. I think this will score them closer to the natural weight of a district. By the way I’m weighting the win 7% less, not actually subtracting 7% from the number.  Open seat races will be considered “pure” events and will remain neutral as far as weighting goes.  A seat switching parties will also be considered a neutral event. The 1st defense of a seat by a freshman house member will be given a weighting of 2%. The toughest race for any incumbent is their 1st defense. I decided to adjust for this fact. Note: Indiana’s bloody 9th was a tough call a case could be made that when a seat keeps flipping, and the same two guys run 4 straight times in a row each election should be a neutral event.

Senate weighting is as follows. In state with a single House seat the Senate seat will be weighted the same as a house. In states with multiple seats, the Senate will get a weighting of 2%. Nate Silver stated that a VP pick in a large state is worth this amount. An argument could be made for a sliding scale of Senate weighting from 2-7%, this added complexity may be added at a later date. I will give incumbent presidents a 2% weighting, until I get better data on how powerful a “pull” being the sitting POTUS is, I will give them the same weighting as a senator.

From Tink’s campaign website:

I am announcing that as of today I am terminating my campaign for Congress. This is obviously not an easy decision for me, but I have come to the conclusion that its the right one. While the image of the next campaign against Michele Bachmann is certainly energizing, the path to that campaign is becoming increasingly improbable. I’m proud of our last campaign. We did better than almost anyone outside the campaign expected. We built a national support base and proved that a strong Democrat with enough time and resources could win in the Sixth District.

Now, however, we are faced with the prospect of the next thirteen months being a battle among Democrats. In a difficult district during tough financial times we will be spending large amounts of time and money trying to defeat each other rather than defeating Michele Bachmann. That is not a campaign I want to wage nor is it the kind of campaign that strengthens our chances of electing a Democrat next fall.

Say what you will about Tinklenberg, but he did do something that most candidates don’t — and that was to generously donate $250,000 to the DCCC earlier this year — scrilla that will be put to good use, I’m sure.

RaceTracker Wiki: MN-06

Democratic apathy tells the story.

“In a result probably owing more to the shift against Democrats in the national political climate than anything going on in Virginia, Bob McDonnell now leads Creigh Deeds 51-37 in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia. It’s not that voters are changing sides from last fall – the 5% of John McCain’s voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama’s voters planning to vote for McDonnell. But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election.”

I would argue in Virginia it probably has more to do with specific groups, young people and African Americans – the core Obama groups, not taking an interest. Still time to turn it around but hard work all the same.

“McDonnell has a 52-33 lead among independents and has locked up 94% of the Republican vote while Deeds is at 80% with Democrats. There is some good news for Deeds in the poll, as he leads 64-3 among African Americans. The 33% of undecided voters in that group will likely move toward Deeds as the election approaches, tightening up the race.”

The strategy is clearly to unite Democrats, to get black voters energized (Obama must get involved – I have faith in the WH here since we know they know the consequences of losing NJ AND VA from that Wilder interview. Must get him on board too) and to work on those indies. Creigh has come from behind once he can do it again.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

The NRCC made a splash earlier today by releasing a target list of 70 Dem-held House districts that they hope to put into play next year. Let’s take a closer look at all 70 — including their PVIs, the closeness of each race in 2008, and whether or not the GOP has recruited a “legitimate” challenger this time (this is a bit of a subjective assessment, but we’ll get to that later):

That’s a big fat, honkin’ list of incumbents, including several that haven’t seen a competitive race in years — or ever (Boren, Skelton, the Arkansas delegation, Matheson, Pomeroy, Kind, and Boucher, to name just a few). Many of these races probably won’t produce competitive contests, but there’s absolutely no downside for the NRCC to be putting these incumbents on notice — not only will the targets being painted on these members’ backs have the potential to affect legislative votes, it helps to promote the idea that the NRCC is preparing for a big wave in their favor in 2010. (One thing’s for sure, if we have to worry about David Effin’ Wu next year, we’ll be preparing for life in the minority again.)

Now, what makes a challenger “legitimate”, you ask? That’s a good question. I define legitimacy as something that must be earned — whether it’s through an electoral track record or a demonstrated ability to fundraise (or self-fund), or some combination of both. In other words, just because the NRCC has met with some random businessman and asked him to challenge his local congressman, it doesn’t mean that the challenger has established himself as legitimate until he’s coughed up a quarterly filing with the FEC. Let me put it this way: for every Richard Hanna (the guy who nearly beat Mike Arcuri last year), there are a dozen or more Luke Pucketts or Carl Mumpowers. It’s just a lot harder at this point in the game to separate the wheat from the chaff, so our methodology is not to list a challenger without a record of electoral success as “legitimate” until they have demonstrated their ability to raise the dough. (And no, raising phat loads of cash through BMW Direct, like Bill Russell does in PA-12 does not count as a legitimate means of fundraising in our book.) The NRCC would no doubt disagree pretty strongly with my chart in some places, but I already feel that I’m being overly generous by granting OR-04 candidate Sid Leiken, who has had some pretty severe fundraising difficulties, “legit” status.

So, many of these districts marked with an “N” have challengers that have yet to prove the merit and mettle of their respective candidacies. There’s no doubt that many of these Ns will turn into Ys by the time the year’s over, but the GOP still has a lot of work to do. The GOP also has a stock of credible candidates considering bids in many of these “unchallenged” districts (FL-08, LA-03, and VA-05, in particular), so some of these holes will be easier to fill than others.

Also interesting is who is not listed on such an expansive list as this — guys whom the NRCC spent a lot of time targeting last cycle like Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) stand out as conspicuous absences, especially considering the number of extreme longshots thrown into the mix.

After months of endless and merciless teasing, it looks like this is for real:

U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak is set to announce one of the worst-kept secrets in politics tomorrow: a Democratic primary challenge to veteran Sen. Arlen Specter in 2010.

Sestak, a retired Navy flag officer, will make a “major campaign announcement” in an 8:30 a.m. appearance before supporters at the Herbert W. Best VFW Post in Folsom, Delaware County.

That will be followed by a two-day tour that will take him to Pittsburgh, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and Scranton before ending Wednesday with an appearance on Comedy Central’s Colbert Report.

Sestak’s announcement will be streamed live on his website. Let the games begin.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen