Month: August 2009

Politico:

Former Republican congressman Bob Beauprez told POLITICO that he is “leaning towards running” against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) because he doesn’t think any of the party’s current crop of candidates can win.

“There’s a general sense that our field isn’t really set on our side, and Bennet is quite vulnerable,” said Beauprez. “We’re looking at it — with an increased sense of urgency.”

Beauprez said the administration’s policies on health care and energy have been driving him to jump in the race. But he remains concerned whether he will be able to raise enough money in a tough environment for fundraising.

He said he will have to make his decision soon, but didn’t set a timetable.

I don’t doubt that Bennet is vulnerable to a challenge, but is Bob Beauprez the man to beat him? Beauprez, as you may remember, was last seen losing the 2006 gubernatorial race in Colorado to Democrat Bill Ritter in a humiliating fashion (17 points worth of humiliation, to be precise). Beauprez won’t be facing that kind of headwind again next year if he chooses to run, but he may have to work hard to earn back some credibility with the GOP base — and everyone else.

UPDATE: ColoradoPols hears through the grapevine that Beauprez is telling his friends that he’s gonna run.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen

• KY-Sen: Kentucky’s Fancy Farm picnic is one of those old-timey traditions where all the candidates gather together, make a stump speech, and roast each other a little — but Daniel Mongiardo and Jack Conway already seem to be going a little past roasting each other to going after each other with axes. Mongiardo said Conway stood up for the “silver spoon crowd,” and, in his bid to be the coal candidate in this race, referred to cap and trade as “Jack’s tax.” Conway shot back that Mongiardo (an ear, nose, and throat doctor) “can’t hear the truth, you can’t smell the truth and you sure as hell can’t speak the truth.” Conway also referred to himself as a “tough son of a bitch” and even said “crap” at some point, leaving Mongiardo boo-hooing to the press later on about so many profanities.

• LA-Sen, Gov: Bobby Jindal confirmed that he won’t be running for Senator against David Vitter in the GOP primary, but instead of endorsing Vitter as would be customary at this point, engaged in some rhetorical song and dance instead: “David’s going have to make his case with the voters directly just like any other candidate’s going to have to do that.” Meanwhile, Jindal is facing an investigation from his AG over his blog… or more precisely, “The Ledger,” the blog published by the Dept. of Administration about budgetary news. Still, a Republican state Senator filed a complaint, saying that the blog puts forth a political agenda.

• NC-Sen: The Hill, in a long piece that mostly is about how Elaine Marshall is on track to be the Democratic nominee by default, drops an interesting tidbit at the end: Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy said he’s considering the race. (Chapel Hill has a population of less than 50,000, but it has an outsized place in the state’s zeitgeist, as home of UNC.)

• IA-Gov: Former GOP Governor Terry Branstad has been occasional subject of rumors of another gubernatorial run (Branstad already served a record four terms as governor, 1982-1998). Branstad didn’t seem interested, but over the weekend went on the record as at least being somewhat interested: “I’m not ruling it out… And I have real concerns about the direction things are going.” For what it’s worth, a recent GOP internal poll showed Bradstad beating current Governor Chet Culver, while Culver easily dispatched the other GOPers. (H/t desmoinesdem.)

• NM-Gov: GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who’s had an exploratory committee for a while, announced in a letter to supporters that she’s officially launching her gubernatorial bid. She joins Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez in the GOP field.

• NV-Gov: Former GOP Governor (and current RNC member) Bob List dissed current Governor Jim Gibbons in no uncertain terms, saying his re-election chances are “fairly slim” and that Gibbons seems unlikely to run. When asked if he was in fact still campaiging, though, Gibbons had a succinct answer: “Yes.”

• NY-Gov: The NY Times talks to a number of confidantes who make it sound like Andrew Cuomo is very interested in running for Governor, despite his many protestations otherwise. Cuomo’s holding pattern seems to be about waiting for the party’s other power brokers to try and push David Paterson out behind-the-scenes first, before committing to a primary and risking a repeat of the racially divisive 2002 gubernatorial primary where Cuomo lost to Carl McCall.

• FL-08: Seems a little early for dueling internal polls, but that suggests this will be one of 2010’s top House contests. An NRCC poll gave Rep. Alan Grayson a 37-34 edge over Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, but when told that Grayson voted to “raise taxes on small businesses” and “increase the deficit,” Crotty takes a 41-28 lead. (They also message-tested all the things wrong with Crotty — land swaps, toll increases, and the like — but didn’t reveal how much Grayson’s lead increases after being told about that.) Grayson responded with his own poll from April, showing him with a 46-40 lead over Crotty. (H/t Progressive America.)

• FL-24: The Feds wrapped up their investigation of Tom Feeney’s golf trip to Scotland with Jack Abramoff, without filing charges. Feeney, currently practicing law, sidestepped questions of whether he’d mount a comeback for his old seat now.

• GA-09: Yet another Republican threw his hat in for the super-red open seat left in north Georgia by Nathan Deal: state Sen. Lee Hawkins. TheUnknown285 outlines the downballot implications, though: Hawkins could be replaced by GOP state Rep. Carl Rogers, who would leave behind a House seat in Gainesville that would be ripe pickings for Democrats because of rapid Latino growth. (UPDATE: Ooops, no dice. Rogers says today he’ll stay in the House.)

• VA-05: Tom Perriello got into the news in an interesting new way. It turns out that several letters sent to Perriello’s office, purportedly from local liberal groups, opposing cap and trade, were complete fabrications. They were forgeries of the groups’ letterhead, sent by lobbying firm Bonner & Associates, who’ve apparently graduated from mere astroturfing to mail fraud.

• NY-LG: An appellate court ruled that Richard Ravitch, who was appointed by David Paterson in unprecedented (if not unconstitutional) fashion, may start serving as Lt. Governor. However, the court held that he can’t do the one thing that he was put into power to do, which is preside over the state Senate and cast tie-breaking votes.

Previous diaries

Summary:

 NC has 13 representative: 8 D and 5 R

 ND has 1 representative: A Democrat

 Possibly vulnerable – I don’t see any

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative G.K. Butterfield (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 69.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin  70-30 against Dean Stephens

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Bob Etheridge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 168

First elected 1996

2008 margin 67-31 against Dan Mansell

2006 margin  67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment

District: NC-03

Location  Most of the Atlantic coast of NC map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Walter Jones (R)

VoteView 294.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-34 against Craig Webber

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin  71-29

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 69-32

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 39th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Price (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 98.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 63-37 against William Lawson

2006 margin  65-35

2004 margin  64-36

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents 3 Republicans have declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Looks safe, I am not sure why there is so much R interest

District: NC-05

Location  Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Virginia Foxx (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 432

First elected 2004

2008 margin 58-42 over Roy Carter

2006 margin  57-43

2004 margin  59-41

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Richard Coble (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 383

First elected 1984

2008 margin 67-32 over Teresa Bratton

2006 margin  71-29

2004 margin  73-27

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

VoteView 223

First elected 1996

2008 margin 67-32 against William Breazeale

2006 margin  73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents Breazeale is running again

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location  Central part of southern NC, bordering SC map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Larry Kissell (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-45 against Robin Hayes

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents There is a lot of R interest, see the Wiki, but only Linwood Faulk is confirmed

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Kissell ousted Hayes fairly easily, this should be safe

District: NC-09

Location  A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Sue Myrick (R)

VoteView 402.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin 62-36 against Harry Taylor

2006 margin  67-33

2004 margin  70-30

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

VoteView 417

First elected 2004

2008 margin 58-42 against Dan Johnson

2006 margin  62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 34th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

VoteView 232

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-36 against Carl Mumpower

2006 margin  54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Possibly a primary; no confirmed Republican, but a lot of potential candidates, see the Wiki.

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%)

Assessment Shuler seems to fit this district, looks pretty safe

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, NC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th map

Cook PVI D + 16

Representative Melvin Watt (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 57.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 72-28 against Ty Cobb

2006 margin  67-33

2004 margin  67-33

Obama margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA  map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Brad Miller (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 151

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 against Hugh Webster

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

VoteView 194.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 62-38 against Duane Sand

2006 margin  64-35

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

Previous diaries

Summary:

 NY has 29 congresspeople: 26 D and 3 R; possibly vul:

 NY-03 (R) (if King runs for Senate)

 NY-13 (D)

 NY-20 (D)

 NY-23 (R)

 NY-24 (D)

 NY-29 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

One note on geography – in NYC, a lot of districts are bizarrely shaped, but this doesn’t relate to Dem. vs. Repub., as all of the districts are Democratic, and all but one solidly so.  You have to look at the maps to appreciate them.

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island map

Cook PVI 0

Representative Timothy Bishop (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2001

2008 margin 58-42 over Lee Zeldin

2006 margin  62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Lee Zeldin, possibly a Republican primary first vs. Randy Altschuler

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K)

Assessment Bishop beat Zeldin easily, looks safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Steve Israel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 117.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin  66-34 over Frank Stalzer

2006 margin  70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location Mostly south shore of central Long Island map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Peter King (R) May run for Senate

VoteView 271

First elected 1992

2008 margin  64-36 over Graham Long

2006 margin  56-44

2004 margin  63-37

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Current opponents A lot of Democrats are ‘considering’ running; if King goes for the Senate seat, a lot of Republicans will doubtless run as well.

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment It depends on what King does, if he runs, it’s likely to stay Republican; if he goes for the Senate, then it’s a possible pickup, but still, the district went for McCain.

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 1996

2008 margin  64-36 over Jack Martins

2006 margin  65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Nonconfirmed

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens  map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1983

2008 margin 70-28 over Elizabeth Berney

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern Queens, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 36

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

VoteView 69.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin  Unopposed

Obama margin 89-11

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Queens and Bronx, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative Joseph Crowley (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1998

2008 margin  85-15 over William Britt

2006 margin  84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Obama margin 79-20

Bush margin 2004 74-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, southern Brooklyn, and a skinny line connecting them map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 50

First elected 1992

2008 margin  80-20 over Grace Lin

2006 margin  85-14

2004 margin  81-19

Obama margin 74-25

Bush margin 2004 72-27

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian); I don’t have the figure, but it also has one of the highest concentrations of Jews.

Assessment Safe

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC  map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin  92-8 over conservative party candidate

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents  None confirmed

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location  A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC  map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Edolphus Towns (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 28.5

First elected 1982

2008 margin  94-6 over Salvatore Grupico

2006 margin  92-6

2004 margin 91-7

Obama margin 91-9

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Current opponents Kevin Powell

Demographics  27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-11

Location   Central Brooklyn, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 38

Representative Yvette Clarke (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 22

First elected 2006

2008 margin  93-7 over Hugh Carr

2006 margin  90-8

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 90-9

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 5th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location  Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn  map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 20.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin  89-11 over Alan Romaguera

2006 margin  90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Obama margin 86-13

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian).

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC  map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Michael McMahon (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  61-33 over Robert Staniere

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This used to be a Republican district, until Fosella got caught driving drunk and committing bigamy.  I am not sure how vul. McMahon is.  Staniere was not a real test.  McMahon has raised almost $600K, and has over $450K COH.

District: NY-14

Location  East side of Manhattan, and western Queens  map

Cook PVI D + 26

Representative Carolyn Maloney (D) may run for Senate

VoteView 122.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin  79-19 over Robert Heim

2006 margin  84-16

2004 margin  81-19

Obama margin 78-21

Bush margin 2004 74-25

Current opponents None confirmed.  If Maloney goes for Senate, all bets are off.

Demographics  15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe for Maloney who whatever Democrat runs, if she leaves.

District: NY-15

Location  Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens map

Cook PVI D + 41

Representative Charlie Rangel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 109

First elected 1970

2008 margin  87-9 over Ed Daniels

2006 margin  94-6

2004 margin  91-7

Obama margin 93-6

Bush margin 2004 90-9

Current opponents

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), 2nd most Democratic

Assessment Rangel is corrupt, and too conservative for this district, but a primary is probably hopeless.  Rangel was born in 1930 … will he ever retire?  In any case, a safe D seat.

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC map

Cook PVI D + 41

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

VoteView 8.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin  97-3 over Ali Mohamed

2006 margin  95-5

2004 margin  95-5

Obama margin 95-5

Bush margin 2004 89-10

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics The most Democratic district in the USA; 3% may be the lowest percentage gotten by a major party candidate

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location  Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson  map

Cook PVI D + 18

Representative Elliot Engel (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 83

First elected 1998

2008 margin  79-21 over Robert Goodman

2006 margin  76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Obama margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)  map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

VoteView 28.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin  68-32 over Jim Russell

2006 margin  71-29

2004 margin  70-30

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics

Assessment Safe

District: NY-19

Location  Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT  map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative John Hall (D)

VoteView 142

First elected 2006

2008 margin  58-42 over Kieran Lalor

2006 margin  51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents John MacEnroe (no not John McEnroe) and Greg Ball are in a Republican primary

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment With two wins under his belt, Hall looks more or less safe

District: NY-20

Location  Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany  map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Scott Murphy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2009

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment After an extremely close race, this has to be counted as vulnerable.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there  map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Paul Tonko (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2008

2008 margin  62-35 over James Buhrmaster

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NY-22

Location  If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1992

2008 margin  66-34 over George Phillips

2006 margin  63-37

2004 margin  71-29

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents George Phillips

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT  map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John McHugh (R) Retiring to be Secretary of the Army

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents Since Obama chose McHugh, there is a lot of interest in this race.  Confirmed Democrats include Mike Oot, who ran and lost badly to McHugh in 2008 (I cannot find a website for the 2010 run) and Danny Francis (I couldn’t find a site for him, either).  

Demographics 8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Vulnerable.  We have to see who the candidates are.

District: NY-24

Location  Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario  map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

VoteView 160.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin  51-49 over Richard Hanna

2006 margin  54-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-48

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable, although Arcuri has already raised over $400K.  

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Dan Maffei (D)

VoteView 263

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-42 over Dale Sweetland

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Current opponents Paul Bertan

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Maffei won his 2008 race pretty easily (after losing a close one in 2006), and Obama also won pretty easily; not completely safe, but not bad. Maffei has raised almost $900K.

District: NY-26

Location  Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Chris Lee (R)

VoteView 309

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-40 over Alice Kryzan

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 46-52

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo  map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

VoteView 115.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin  74-23 over Daniel Humiston

2006 margin  79-21

2004 margin  51-49

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Looks pretty safe

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip  map

Cook PVI D + 15

Representative Louise Slaughter (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 50.5

First elected 1986

2008 margin  78-22 over David Crimmen

2006 margin  73-27

2004 margin  73-25

Obama margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Eric Massa (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Randy Kuhl  

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents Tom Reed; a Republican primary seems likely

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Massa barely ousted Kuhl, so it’s not completely safe. Massa has raised over $500K

Walt Minnick, the conservative Blue Dog Congressman from Idaho's 1st district, is in deep doo-doo with voters back home.

 Even conservative Republicans (who, let's be honest, make up this district's entire electorate) who applaud Minnick for standing up to vote no on Nancy Pelosi's agenda, will NOT vote for him next year.

An average voter here is Don Griesel.  “As we all know, Congress is controlled by the numbers game,” Griesel said. “That's who gets to be speaker of the House and Senate majority leader. So, if he doesn't change his party, there is no way I can vote Democrat, because right now, they control the House, and that is what is killing America.” 

The good news is that Walt Minnick might as well be a Republican anyway.  He votes so often with the Republican leadership that if he changed parties today it would not change the voting at all.

If I was Minnick, I'd stop campaigning, stop fundraising, and compile a strong progressive voting record.  It would be only so fair as the citizens of Idaho will probably not get another progressive vote in Congress for another fifty years.

 So I can say this right now: based on these projections, Walt Minnick will NOT return to the House in 2011.  So the DCCC better give that money to more worthy members.

Less than three months after saying he would not run against Governor Chet Culver next year, former four-term governor Terry Branstad (1983-1999) now tells the Des Moines Register he is “not ruling it out.” Moreover,

Branstad is accepting invitations to meet with party activists. Two weeks ago, he met with about 50 political and business leaders at the Alden home of Bruce Rastetter, an influential Republican fundraiser and ethanol industry executive.

New calls for Branstad’s candidacy, and encouraging words from key donors such as West Des Moines developer Gary Kirke, underscore a growing feeling in his party that Democrat Gov. Chet Culver is vulnerable as he finishes his first term and that the emerging GOP field lacks a contender who can beat him.

A recent poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog found Branstad leading Culver 53-37, while Culver leads the other two best-known Republican gubernatorial candidates. Culver brings a lot of strengths to the re-election campaign, and his approval and favorability numbers weren’t bad in that Republican poll, but Branstad appears to be a stronger candidate than the declared contenders.

Branstad isn’t guaranteed a smooth path to the Republican nomination, though.

A Branstad candidacy would force some of the lesser-known Republicans from the race, but the current front-runner Bob Vander Plaats is signaling that he would stay in. He plays to the social conservative constituency that saved Branstad’s bacon in his tough 1994 primary against then-Congressman Fred Grandy.

I think there would be a niche for a third candidate who might emphasize Vander Plaats’ poor general election prospects and Branstad’s record of fiscal mismanagement as governor. When voters are reminded that Branstad kept two sets of books to enable him to run deficits, he will look less appealing as an alternative to Culver, under whom Iowa has a gold star bond rating.

Many Iowa Republicans deeply distrust Doug Gross, the 2002 gubernatorial nominee who was a top aide to Branstad and has been shopping for a candidate to support all year. An opinion poll Gross commissioned on behalf of the Iowa First Foundation in March sparked the Branstad for governor rumors.

Businessmen Bruce Rastetter and Gary Kirke, who are fueling the Branstad recruitment efforts, are big Republican players but not without controversy in Iowa GOP circles either. Rastetter gave a lot of money to Republican candidates in 2008 and may have been involved in a group running ads against Culver. But he also gave Culver’s campaign committee $25,000 in 2007, as did Kirke. Rastetter gave the maximum allowable contribution to Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign, and we all remember how highly Iowa Republicans thought of Rudy.

I do not think that rank and file Republicans are going to sit back and let these kingmakers choose Branstad as their candidate against Culver. Then again, I still think Branstad is not going to run for governor, so I could be proven wrong.

In other news on the GOP race for governor, Jason Hancock wrote a good piece for Iowa Independent on the pros and cons of a competitive Republican primary. I tend to agree with Republicans who think a tough primary will help the GOP by generating media buzz and starting to close the voter registration gap with Iowa Democrats (now around 114,000). On the other hand, there’s a chance that harsh infighting could damage the eventual nominee. The most disastrous outcome for Republicans is still John Deeth’s dream of Vander Plaats winning the nomination at a state convention. A Branstad candidacy would eliminate that possibility.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

Anthony Woods, as many of you know, is running in the CA-10 special election.  He is a Progressive Dream Candidate and MUST win this primary.  Why?

• Anthony Woods is a brave, noble and courageous young man.  He served in George Bush's Iraq war and earned the Bronze Star for leading platoons in dangerous battles, and helping Iraqis build their nation.
• He was raised by a single mother who was a housekeeper.  He is not the son of priviledge, as are so many of the people in Congress, he comes from very humble roots.
• He had not had health insurance for most of his life.  Woods would lend a personal voice to the health care debate.
• He earned a Congressional appointment to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and graduated from there on the Dean's List.
• Working hard to afford his education, he was able to go to Harvard University where he was awarded a master's from the Kennedy School of Government.
• He was given the Robert Kennedy Public Service Award.
• He organized aid for New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.
• While on leave from his military service, he travelled the country raising money for Habitat for Humanity.
• Because of the despicable and disastrous Don't Ask, Don't Tell policy, Woods was forced to leave the military or be thrown out, despite all of his hard work and sacrifice for our country.
• Woods is running against the same old establishment Sacramento politicians, all of them conventional Democrats, and none of them particularly exciting.  Woods IS.
• If elected to Congress, Anthony Woods would make history by becoming the first black gay congressman and the first gay soldier to be elected to Congress.  He would become a face for so many issues – health care, low-income families, our soldiers overseas, the GLBT community, and minorities.
• Anthony Woods' candidacy personifies what it means to be a Obama Democrat, and he will no doubt become a strong supporter of our President.
• Anthony Woods will have one of the most progressive voting records in the House.
• If elected, Anthony Woods will become one of the youngest members of Congress, and the first Democrat elected to have been born in the 1980s.  He is a needed young voice since most of the youngest members of Congress are right-wing Republicans.  It's time that we had a young voice that actually represented the views of our young people.

Anthony Woods needs your help.  Let's all contribute to his groundbreaking campaign so that he may win the Democratic primary, scheduled for September 1, 2009.

Woods is 3rd on the list of highest contributions at ActBlue, the progressive online clearinghouse.  With all of our help, we can win.

I unfortunately cannot campaign for him, but if I lived in CA-10, I would be right out on the streets going door-to-door.  He is truly a candidate progressives can really get fully behind and support.

If you live in CA-10, please – we only have a month left – it's a matter of weeks really.  CA-10 includes the East Bay cities of Fairfield, Antioch, Walnut Creek, Pleasant Hill, and Livermore.

So please think about it, just imagine what his victory would mean, especially since what happened last year in California.  Woods would be a way for us to say NO to Prop 8 all over again.  He is symbolically everything a progressive party should be, and that is why we must so energetically support him.

He really needs our help.  This is a candidate to get passionate about!

For 3 years I have been visiting and sometimes contributing comments to the HEDGEHOG REPORT, which is a republican website that was once known for excellent polling data and analysis. I came as a centrist to the website to see what the right thinks.

The website-master, Dave Wissing, is excellent at putting out polling data. For a long time, only he front-paged the site.

However, since he began to let others front page at his once fine website, it has quickly degenerated into a massive racist anti-Obama hate fest.

For instance, did you know that it was expected that President Obama should serve up Colt 45 malt liquor at his now famous beer summit, since the stuff is cheap and the malt industry targets blacks, college students and the homeless? And this is mild compared to the postings of many visitors.

Apparently, many conservatives think that they can be clever and can slide in blatantly racist claims under the cloak of civility.

Once again, it is a sad day for the republican party, for most all of these comments are coming from members of the republican party. I will be doing a large post soon on the most obvious racist explosions within the GOP over the last year and you will be amazed at the frequency of such happenings.

Dave Wissing reminded me of the following :

“I would tend to agree with you on the tactics of some Republicans are using to attack Obama, but I will not apologize for anything ******** or ******** posted.  They expressed their opinion and anyone was free to disagree. ”

Since Dave Wissing is using the 1st amendment to allow such material on his website, then I am also going to use the first amendment and warn all of my friends, aquaintances and contacts to steer clear of his website.

Avoid the HEDGEHOG REPORT. It is not what it used to be.

PC Load Letter? What the fuck is that?