Month: October 2009

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/19-21, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D): 35

Dede Scozzafava (R): 30

Doug Hoffman (C): 23

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

One more big news item out of NY-23 to add to the pile: Democrat Bill Owens is still holding down a decent-sized lead. Republican Dede Scozzafava is still in second place despite the general implosion of her campaign this week — note, though, that the sample was taken Monday through Wednesday, when things were only sort of going wrong and the dam hadn’t totally broken (with the Palin endorsement, the photo op snafu, the parking lot screaming, and… well, you know the rest of the story). In fact, these numbers match up very closely with the most recent Siena poll of the race from one week earlier, where Owens led at 33, with Scozzafava at 29 and Conservative Doug Hoffman at 23.

The poll also asks an interesting question of Hoffman voters: who’s your second choice? It looks like the Hoffman camp has done a sufficient job of poisoning Scozzafava’s well, for Scozzafava gets almost no second-choice votes: the answers were 62% undecided, 26% won’t vote, 9% Scozzafava, and 3% Owens. All three of the candidates have positive favorables, although Scozzafava has the narrowest spread (38/35, versus Owens’ 33/24 and Hoffman’s 27/19).

RaceTracker: NY-23

Prominent attorney Roxanne Conlin spoke to the Des Moines Register on Thursday about a possible Senate bid next year.

Link:

“I never thought I’d run again,” Conlin said at her home in Des Moines. “But in my lifetime, I don’t ever want to say, ‘If only I had followed my dream or followed my heart.’ ”

“What has changed for me is Grassley.”

Conlin said she is “more likely than not” running, but first needs to iron out how she would staff a campaign and handle her law practice before making a final decision, which she expects to announce by next month.

She said she talked about running at length with state party chairman Michael Kiernan, who said last month a well-known Democrat was planning to enter the race. “I don’t know how this is going to come together, but I have reached the point where I would like to do it,” she said. […]

Conlin said Grassley’s tone on health care reform at public appearances in Iowa last summer pushed her toward running. […]

Conlin accused Grassley of being disingenuous, noting that he circulated a fundraising brochure stating he was working to defeat “Obama-care,” while continuing to participate in bipartisan negotiations.

“That’s not the Chuck Grassley I thought this state elected, and it really was a watershed moment for me,” Conlin said.

Conlin was the Democratic nominee for governor in 1982, the first year Terry Branstad was elected. Before that, she ran the civil rights division of the Iowa Attorney General’s Office and was the U.S. attorney for the southern district of Iowa.

She’s been a highly successful plaintiff’s attorney since 1983 and was the first woman president of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America. In addition,

She founded and was the first chair of the Iowa Women’s Political caucus, and was president and general counsel of the NOW Legal Defense and Education Fund. Most recently, she has been named by the National Law Journal as one of the fifty most influential women lawyers in America, one of the 100 most influential lawyers in America and one of the top 10 litigators.

If Conlin runs, she will be a lightning rod for attacks from Republicans and corporate-funded political organizations. On the plus side, she is a powerful public speaker and may be able to drive up turnout, especially among women voters. She will also be able to raise more than enough money to run a serious campaign against Grassley. Earlier this month, Research 2000 found Grassley leading Conlin by 51 percent to 39 percent among Iowa voters.

In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010,  Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.

But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party’s hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.

The most recent example is the 2nd District’s Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. “Moderate” Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.

Here’s the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he’ll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.  

A Gov. Brownback (ugh) will have his hands full pushing through a conservative agenda over the feisty moderates (whose main base, suburban Johnson County, is going to get quite a few more seats regardless). Moderate Republicans and Democrats share a lot of redistricting aims–they want competitive seats, basically. Make seats too heavily Republican and conservatives will take over, too heavily Democratic…well, that’s not really a possibility in Kansas.

Overall, Kansans do tend to be fairly civic-minded about redistricting and don’t do obvious gerrymanders, using fairly balanced “select committees” of legislators to do the grunt work. Finally, legislators also put maintaining the core of existing districts into the redistricting guidelines for last time, so I’d bet that’s likely to show up again.

The Big First – District One – map color: blue [irony alert!] – The person in this seat basically has a space waiting for them on the Agriculture Committee. And it will be the person who wins the Republican primary for this open seat in 2010. This district is about as red and rural as it gets–and like many rural areas, it’s bleeding population.  

Adds: bits of Geary & Nemaha, all of Riley  

Loses: Pratt, Barber, Waubaunsee, the rest of Greenwood

Old PVI: R+23

New PVI: R+22

District Two – Lynn Jenkins (R) – map color: green – At PVI+9, it’s already the 2nd most Dem district (tells you something about KS right there), but there’s nowhere else to put the rest of liberal Lawrence now that the 3rd district has grown too populous for it. Based on Moore’s 2008 numbers here, that’s a net of about 13,000 votes in the D column flooding the district (with 27000 votes total and a 71-24 split). Jenkins beat Boyda by 13,500 votes in 2008. D’oh.

The only help Republicans can offer is tinkering around the edges–taking out Topeka would be the only way to really affect the composition and that’s out of the question from several standpoints. It’s just unfortunate for the Great White Dope that her district completely surrounds the fastest-growing and bluest one in the state. That said, moderate Republicans should (at least in theory) love this district. They might still be able to edge out an incumbent Democrat (barely), but a conservative could be defeated in a general election.

Adds: the rest of Douglas County (net 13000 D), Wabaunsee (net 1300 R), Montgomery (net 5000 R)

Loses: Riley (net 1000 R), Coffey (net 1400 R), Woodson (net 500 R), Wilson (net 1300 R)

Old PVI: R+9

New PVI: R+5

District Three – Dennis Moore (D) – map color: purple – Even if Republicans wanted to get rid of the delegation’s sole Democrat, it would be nearly impossible. To do it, you’d have to move out both Douglas & Wyandotte counties and then tack on a dozen or so rural ones. Not really a “community of interests” between the state’s richest, most populous suburban county and slew of relatively poor rural counties.

So instead, the district drops the rest of Douglas and picks up a few sparsely-populated (for now) bits of Miami County. It’s enough to shift the PVI needle a few clicks to the right, but not enough to dislodge Moore, who won Johnson County 51-45 and Wyandotte 75-21. Still, a moderate Republican could definitely pick up this seat if the 63-year-old Moore retires. Then again, so could a Democrat.

Old PVI: R+3

New PVI: R+5

District Four – map color: red – Centered on the slow-growing Wichita metro area, the Fightin’ Fourth has to add a few rural counties and becomes a bit redder. Even if state Rep. Raj Goyle can pull off an upset in 2010 in the open seat race here, he’ll be even harder-pressed to win here after redistricting.

Adds: Coffey, Woodson, Wilson, Pratt, Barber

Loses: Montgomery

Old PVI: R+14

New PVI: R+15

Final score: Two seats that a moderate Republican or Democrat could possibly win, and two seats they almost certainly couldn’t.  

Rule #1 in political stagecraft: always, always secure your sightlines.

How did this happen? Dede Scozzafava and/or her staff had the genius idea to do an event challenging Doug Hoffman to a debate… right in front of his campaign headquarters. Now how could that possibly go wrong?

Let’s take a quick look at some other North Country news, most of it, as always, bad for Dede:

• Not only has Sarah Palin endorsed Doug Hoffman, but mini-Palin Michele Bachmann has, too. Said Bachmann: “Hoffman is on the ascendancy, and we have to win this seat, and people need to get behind the winning candidate, and it looks like that’s Hoffman.” Not quite as full-throated as Palin’s endorsement, but Bachmann looks to be the first sitting member of Congress to take the plunge.

• Like the New Jersey Restaurant Association’s endorsement of Chris Christie, maybe this is some help Scozzafava would rather not have at this point: several labor and abortion rights groups have chipped in with a few donations. Scozzafava desperately needs to prove her conservative bona fides, and this will help about as much as having the likes of “moderate” Susan Collins campaign for her. Oh wait, she’s doing that, too.

• So, those 48-hour reports I was talking about just below? Well, a lot of big names have shown up for Owens since Oct. 15th, like Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Nydia Velazquez and more. The only GOPer member of Congress who has given to Dede in that timeframe is Greg Walden (OR-02). Believe it or not, Walden just announced he’s that he’s also the first member of Congress to… contract swine flu. I’m not one for omens, but sheesh.

• Some dude endorsed Bill Owens and sent an email to his list.

• You can see Doug Hoffman’s latest ad attacking Scozzafava (by linking her with Owens) here. Reminds me of this ad from last cycle.

• For all the fire Scozzafava’s been under, it’s not exactly clear that Hoffman is any great shakes as a candidate. Check out this description of his meeting with the editorial board of the Watertown Daily Times:

The atmosphere was tense, at times.

Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about.

That’s not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.’s “meet-the-candidates” night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck’s television show.

Ouch!

• Remember Scozzafava’s claim from the other day that Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack “screamed” at her? Big surprise – it was bullshit.

• Speaking of conservative publications, a whole bunch of them (including the Weekly Standard and the Washington Times) all published editorials today calling on Scozzafava to drop out of the race. Newt Gingrich for once is making a little sense, defending his endorsement of Scozzafava by saying, “If you seek to be a perfect minority, you’ll remain a minority.” However, Newt being Newt, he’s still wrong, because he apparently thinks he can push back against this madness. No chance.

• And finally, Chris Cillizza claims that “[s]ources on both sides of the partisan aisle suggest that internal polling shows Scozzafava in third place now.” I don’t know if that’s true, but I can tell you that Daily Kos/R2K will have a new poll out tomorrow.

The three candidates running in NY-23 have all just posted their pre-special FEC reports, which covers the period from July 1st to Oct. 14th. Owens has crushed Scozzafava and Hoffman:

Note that Hoffman made a $102K loan to himself, and Scozzafava loaned herself $12K. The final column refers to the so-called “48-hour reports” that campaigns must file shortly before an election. These disclosures fill the gap between the last date covered by the final report (which I’ve detailed above) and election day. Owens has also been lapping the field on this score, too. The fact that Scozzafava’s 48-hour reports are weaker than Hoffman’s – and the fact that she has less cash-on-hand – signal some dire times for her down the stretch run.

So much NY-23 news to discuss, but this one deserves a post of its own. Read it:

The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.

The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it’s important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York’s 23rd Congressional district. It’s my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law. …

And best of all, Doug Hoffman has not been anointed by any political machine. …

Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of “blurring the lines” between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party’s ticket.

Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual.

Wow. True to form, she’s taking on the whole party. This is going to be really, really good.