Month: October 2009

• AR-Sen: With Blanche Lincoln already facing the vague possibility of a primary challenge from her right from Arkansas Senate President Bob Johnson, now there are rumors that she might face a primary challenge from what passes for the left in Arkansas, from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Halter would focus on Lincoln’s health-care related foot-dragging, but apparently has a track record of threatening to run for higher office and then not following through, so this, like Johnson’s bid, may amount to a big bowl of nothing.

• HI-Sen: Congratulations to Senator Daniel Inouye, who today becomes the third-longest-serving Senator in history and, adding in his House tenure, the fifth-longest-serving Congressperson. The 85-year-old Inouye has been in the Senate for almost 47 years. Inouye passed Ted Kennedy today, and will pass Strom Thurmond in another eight months, but is still chasing Robert Byrd. (Unfortunately, Inouye may be spending his special day being a jerk, by trying to remove Al Franken‘s anti-rape amendment from the defense appropriations bill.)

• KY-Sen: Feeling the heat from Rand Paul in the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky, establishment choice Trey Grayson played the “you ain’t from around these parts, are you?” card, calling himself a “5th generation Kentuckian” and Texas-born Paul an “outsider.” (Of course, by implication, doesn’t that make Grayson the… “insider?” Not exactly the banner you want to run under in 2010.)

• LA-Sen: David Vitter spent several days as the lone high-profile politician in Louisiana to not join in the condemnation of Keith Bardwell, the justice of the peace who refused to marry an interracial couple. Given the uselessness of his response, he might as well not have bothered — Vitter’s spokesperson still didn’t condemn Bardwell, merely rumbling about how “all judges should follow the law as written” and then trying to turn the subject to Mike Stark’s Vitter-stalking.

• AL-Gov: This is a good endorsement for Ron Sparks, but it’s also interesting because it’s so racially fraught: former Birmingham mayor Richard Arrington, the first African-American to be elected that city’s mayor in 1979, endorsed Sparks instead of African-American Rep. Artur Davis Jr. in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Arrington puts it: “I think if we are ever to move forward, across racial lines in this state, we have got to begin to trust each other, work with each other, and I think Ron Sparks can be the kind of governor that helps to make that possible.”

• FL-Gov: Rasmussen released part III of its Florida extravaganza, finding that Republican AG Bill McCollum leads Democratic CFO Alex Sink 46-35. (This is the same sample that had Marco Rubio overperforming Charlie Crist against Kendrick Meek.)

• IA-Gov: Ex-Governor Terry Branstad’s Republican primary rivals aren’t going to go away quietly. Bob vander Plaats attacked Branstad on his insufficient conservatism, ranging from sales tax increases during his tenure, choosing a pro-choice running mate in 1994, and even fundraising for Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more poll out today, from Rutgers-Eagleton, finds Jon Corzine with a small lead. Corzine leads Chris Christie and Chris Daggett 39-36-20. This is the first poll to find Daggett breaking the 20% mark; also, with the addition of this poll to the heap, it pushes Corzine into the lead in Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics’ regression lines.

• OR-Gov: Two different candidates have suspended their campaigns due to family health problems. One is pretty high-profile: state Sen. Jason Atkinson, who was initially considered to have the inside track toward the GOP nomination in Oregon but who had, in the last few days, been the subject of dropout speculation. (Could this mean that Allen Alley might actually somehow wind up with the nomination?) The other is John Del Arroz, a businessman who had put a fair amount of his own money into a run in the Republican field in CA-11. Best wishes to both of them.

• RI-Gov: While conventional wisdom has seen ex-Republican ex-Senator and likely independent candidate Lincoln Chafee as having a strong shot at capturing the state house by dominating the middle, he’s running into big a problem in terms of poor fundraising. He’s only sitting on $180K, compared with Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio’s $1.5 million; that’s what happens when you don’t have a party infrastructure to help bolster the efforts.

• CT-04: While it’s not an explicit endorsement, Betsi Shays, the wife of ex-Rep. Chris Shays, gave $500 to state Sen. Rob Russo last quarter. Russo faces off a more conservative state Senate colleague, Dan Debicella, for the GOP nod to go against freshman Rep. Jim Himes.

• IL-14: Cross out Bill Cross from the list. With Ethan Hastert and state Sen. Randy Hultgren probably consuming most of the race’s oxygen, the former Aurora alderman announced that he wouldn’t be running in the crowded GOP primary field in the 14th to take on Democratic Rep. Bill Foster after all.

• LA-03: Houma attorney Ravi Sangisetty announced his run for the Democratic nomination for the open seat left behind by Charlie Melancon. He’s the first Dem to jump into the race, but certainly not expected to be the only one. He’s already sitting on $130K cash.

• PA-11: After a long period of silence, Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta has re-emerged and sources close to him are saying it’s “highly likely” he’ll try another run at Rep. Paul Kanjorski, who narrowly beat him in 2008. Barletta is encouraged by the lack of presidential coattails and the primary challenge to Kanjorski by Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien — although it’s possible that, if O’Brien emerges from the primary, he might perform better in the general than the rust-covered Kanjorski.

• NJ-St. Ass.: If you haven’t already, check out NJCentrist’s diary, filled with lots of local color, on the upcoming elections in New Jersey’s state Assembly. Republicans seem poised to pick up a couple seats in south Jersey, which would bring them closer but leave the Dems still in control.

• State Legislatures: Another fascinating graphic from 538.com, this one about the ideological makeups of various state legislatures. Apparently, political scientists have found a DW/Nominate-style common-space method of ranking all state legislators. The reason this is brought up is because of NY-23 candidate Dede Scozzafava, who it turns out is pretty near the center of New York legislative Republicans, not the flaming liberal she’s made out to be, although that puts her near the nationwide center of all state legislators, because NY Republicans are still, believe it or not, pretty centrist on the whole. There’s plenty else to see on the chart, including how Mississippi and Louisiana Democrats (who control their legislatures) are still to the right of New York and New England Republicans, and how (unsurprisingly, at least to me) California and Washington are the states with the simultaneously most-liberal Democrats and most-conservative Republicans.

• Mayors: In New York, incumbent Michael Bloomberg is holding on to a double-digit lead according to Marist, beating Democratic comptroller William Thompson 52-36 (with Thompson down from 52-43 last month). In Seattle, Joe Mallahan is opening up a lead over Mike McGinn according to SurveyUSA, 43-36, compared with a 38-38 tie three weeks ago. (The Seattle race is nonpartisan and both are very liberal by the rest of the country’s standards, but Seattle politics tends to be fought on a downtown interests/neighborhoods divide, and this race is turning into no exception as the previously amorphous Mallahan is consolidating most of the city’s business and labor support.)

• Nassau Co. Exec: Candidates slamming each other over ticky-tacky financial mistakes like unpaid liens is commonplace, but it’s not commonplace when the unpaid liens add up to almost a million dollars. Republican Nassau County Executive candidate Ed Mangano has a whopping $900K liens against property owned by his family business. (Nassau County is the western part of Long Island’s suburbs.)

• Fundraising: CQ has one more slice-and-dice of the third quarter fundraising information, listing the  biggest self-funders so far this year. Top of the list is Joan Buchanan, who already lost the Democratic primary in the CA-10 special election, who gave herself $1.1 million. In 2nd place is Republican Brad Goehring, running in CA-11 and self-funder to the tune of $650K; 7 of the list of 10 are Republicans.

It ain’t funny money. Here are the September fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (August numbers are here):

After two months of trailing the NRSC in fundraising, the DSCC stormed back with a big month, putting a lot of distance between them and the GOP in the cash-on-hand pile. Perhaps the best bit of news, though, is that thanks to a strong July, the DNC outraised the RNC in the third quarter – the first time that’s happened in a quarter since 2Q 2004. So that you can see these numbers for yourself, below I’m also included a 3Q summary chart, with overall party totals at the bottom.

All 80 seats in the lower house of the NJ legislature are up for re-election this year, but the 40 legislative districts (2 assemblymen from each) are so heavily gerrymandered that only a few districts are ever in play. Right now, the Democrats have a 48-32 majority; Republicans must pick up seats in five districts to re-take a majority.

The conventional wisdom here in that Republicans will pick up seats in a few swing districts, but not enough to take control of the Assembly, which has been under Democratic control for years. Further CW is that there’s a “throw-the-bums-out” anti-Democratic sentiment in these swing districts right now.

Probable GOP pickups

There are two districts currently represented by Democrats that will most likely be represented by Republicans next year.

One is the first legislative district (LD1), a South Jersey district comprised of Cape May County and parts of Cumberland and Atlantic Counties. The Shore region has long been one of the most favorable parts of the state for the GOP, and this year this part of the state is the one Christie has a real lock on.

The Democratic incumbents are Assemblymen Matthew Milam and Nelson Albano, and they’re most likely headed for defeat. Instead of their 2007 running mate, popular Sen. Jeff Van Drew, at the top of the ticket, the unpopular Gov. Jon Corzine is – and Christie may win this district by a double-digit margin. If I had to pick one district to flip, this would be it. The GOP nominees are Mike Donohue, an attorney from Dennis Township who was also the GOP nominee in 2007, and John McCann, a businessman who chairs the Ocean City Republican Party and serves on the Cape May County Tax Board. They’re a pair of real wingnuts; they support abolishing – not cutting, abolishing – the state Department of Environmental Protection.

The good news here for the Dems is that they have a huge five-to-one leg up in fundraising, thanks to the powerful South Jersey Democratic machine. Also, even though Milam and Albano don’t have Van Drew’s electoral coattails to rely upon, Van Drew has been out there campaigning like hell for them.

The other seat that’s likely to flip is LD36, where Assemblymen Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer barely managed to hold onto their seats two years ago. LD36 is a suburban district comprised of most of southern Bergen County, plus Nutley in Essex County and the infamously corrupt city of Passaic in the county of the same name.  

There’s a reason why voters came close to throwing out Scalera and Schaer in 2007.  The pair, especially Schaer, is closely tied to the disastrous EnCap project.  Even though that’s all over with now, and even though the state executive branch is the one that actually mismanaged that project into the ground, Schaer was still one of the original big proponents of the project.  This was enough to rouse constituents to try and teach him a lesson in 2007, and it will be enough in 2009.  Add that together with voter frustration over property taxes, corruption, and Gov. Corzine’s failed affordable housing initiative, and voila! You’ve got a recipe for disaster for Scalera and Schaer.  

This race is going to be very, very close, especially since suburban areas like this one are being sought after by both Christie and Corzine. The GOP nominees are Don Diorio, a school board member and businessman in Carlstadt, and Carmen Pio Costa of Nutley, who manages a real estate investment business.  This is the same ticket that almost unseated the incumbents in 2007, and once again they’re pulling no punches.  They’ve assailed Scalera and Schaer for their support of COAH and Corzine’s tax increases, for their involvement with EnCap, and for their double-dipping tendencies.  (The latter is not unusual for New Jersey politicians, but it’s certainly never something that voters support.  Schaer, for the record, is also the President of the Passaic City Council, while Scalera collected a big, fat second salary for a public job with Essex County for quite some time.  

Other GOP targets

The GOP is also aiming to pick up seats in LD14, the only district represented by different parties in the Senate and Assembly (Sen. Bill Baroni is a Republican). The key in this district is to be pro-labor, because plenty of unionized state workers live in this Central Jersey district, which is fairly close to the state capital.

Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo and Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein are both very pro-labor, so if there’s a big labor turnout for Corzine, they could be safe. But if there are state workers still smarting over the unpaid furloughs Corzine imposed, GOP nominees Rob Calabro (a member of the Hamilton Planning Board who owns several Mercer County food markets) and Bill Harvey (a general practice attorney) could have a pretty good shot at unseating the incumbents. Interestingly, the Middlesex County GOP is ticked off at the Mercer County GOP because both nominees are from Hamilton, in Mercer County. I’m not sure if that’ll affect the race.

There are two other districts where the GOP has a reasonable possibility of picking up seats. One is LD4, a swingy South Jersey district comprised of parts of Camden and Gloucester Counties. Folks, with a two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, this gerrymandered district is usually dominated by George Norcross and his South Jersey Democratic machine. But people in this suburban district — like people in most other parts of New Jersey — are generally viewing Gov. Corzine negatively. Suddenly the GOP is viewing the LD4 seats as a viable option. The seats are currently occupied by Assemblywoman Sandra Love, who is retiring, and Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, who is running for re-election. Moriarty is maligned by Republicans, who cannot beat his “independent-minded” image in spite of the fact that his voting record is fairly partisan and he’s part of the Norcross machine.

Anyway, Moriarty and his new running mate, a 15-year-veteran of the Gloucester Township School Board named Bill Collins, aren’t facing a typical Republican slate this year. One Republican nominee, Eugene E.T. Lawrence, was a Democrat until earlier this year, when he basically switched parties in order to run in the general election (although his official reason was his anger at Gov. Corzine for cutting property tax rebates). Lawrence, an African-American who spent five years as a Democrat on the Gloucester Township Council before being defeated for re-election, felt snubbed when the Democratic machine picked Collins earlier this year.  In addition to Lawrence, the Republicans have nominated a political neophyte named Dominick DiCicco.  Hailing from Franklin Township, DiCicco has a law degree and an MBA; he works for Zurich Financial Services, currently as Chief Legal Officer of North American Claim Operation.  He’s also got friends in high places, apparently, as former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich saw fit to endorse him earlier this year.  How many times has Newt Gingrich endorsed someone in a state legislative race?  Not many, I imagine.  

All things considered, Lawrence and DiCicco have a lot to overcome – not just the voter registration edge, but the fundraising might of the Norcross machine, which has out-raised them two-to-one thus far.  Norcross isn’t losing this one if he can help it, but with his slate facing a pair of genuine moderates in an anti-Democratic year, these seats could flip.  

Another such district is LD19, a somewhat urban Middlesex County district including Perth Amboy and Woodbridge.  This district is currently represented by Assemblymen John Wisniewski of Sayreville and Joe Vas of Perth Amboy.  Wisniewski, who’s been elected and re-elected since 1995, is one of the most powerful members of the Assembly, chairing the Transportation/Public Works Committee.  He more recently made the news by flirting with the prospect of seeking the Speakership next year and, humorously, by boasting about the fact that he didn’t accept a bribe from Solomon Dwek, the cooperating witness in this summer’s infamous Operation Bid Rig.  Good for you, John.  

Of course, perhaps I shouldn’t poke fun at Wisniewski when he is so clearly the clean one in this delegation.  After all, Vas (who was concurrently Mayor of Perth Amboy until he lost his re-election bid in 2008) is facing a plethora of corruption charges from both federal and state authorities.  In March 2009, a state grand jury indicted him on eleven counts, including seven counts of official misconduct.   In May 2009, a federal grand jury indicted him on eight counts, including six counts of mail fraud.  Also in May 2009, a second state grand jury indicted Vas on seventeen further counts. And to top it all off, the feds indicted Vas on one more charge in superseding indictment in July. Through all of this, Vas refuses to resign, although he decides not to seek a second term in office.  Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts suspended Vas’s salary and benefits and stripped him of his committee assignments, including his Commerce Committee chairmanship.  Vas still refuses to resign to this very day.  

So the time comes for the Middlesex Democratic machine to pick Vas’s successor, and they give the party line to Jack O’Leary, the longtime mayor of the district’s smallest city, South Amboy.  O’Leary runs unopposed in the primary and appears to be headed for election as the next assemblyman from LD19.  Instead, an anonymously authored 82-page document called “The O’Leary Family Crime Syndicate” began circulating, accusing O’Leary of corruption and targeting the mayor’s insurance business.  O’Leary was investigated by state authorities as well, although he has not been charged with any crime and the attack may very well have been simply a political enemy trying to take him out.  Regardless, O’Leary bowed to intraparty pressure and quit the race in August.

Democratic Party boss/actual elected county sheriff Joe Spicuzzo convened party leaders to vote on who to anoint as the new nominee.  Party leaders voted to put Craig Coughlin on the ticket. Coughlin is a retired municipal judge who’s been municipal attorney for Carteret and Woodbridge, not to mention a South Amboy councilman and a Woodbridge Democratic Party chair. A distinguished resume, no doubt, but one with scarcely any elective office on it. Indeed, instead of a mayor so popular in his hometown that he’s been elected and re-elected to that office for two decades, the Middlesex Dems anointed a party insider with lots of political connections in all the district’s towns but little to no connection to the actual people of the district.

Even though this is a heavily Democratic district (Dems enjoy a 2-1 registration advantage), the corruption problem and, of course, dissatisfaction with Gov. Corzine have given the GOP newfound hope.  One nominee, Richard Piatkowski of Perth Amboy, is a real estate broker probably best known in the political sphere for his run for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2004, when he was the Republican nominee against then-Congressman (and future Senator) Bob Menendez in the heavily Democratic 13th Congressional District.  His running mate, Peter Kothari, is a businessman from Woodbridge who is probably best known as an Indian-American community activist.  (In 2006, Kothari denounced the police and the city of Edison for not prosecuting a police officer who allegedly engaged in police brutality while arresting another Indian-American activist for rioting and assault on a police officer.  That’s not very Republican….) Worst-case scenario from a Democratic perspective:  The GOP picks up these two seats, along with all the others mentioned above.  I wouldn’t put any money on it, though.  

All other seats

All other seats should be safe for the incumbents. Other than LD14 (mentioned above), only LD2 has split representation (represented by a pair of Republicans in the Assembly and a Democratic state senator), but it’s likely safe for the incumbents. Some excessively optimistic Republicans have also made noise about pickups in LD3 and LD6, which frankly is not going to happen.

I should note that there are also two special elections for the Senate going on: One to fill Congressman John Adler’s old seat in a heavily Democratic district and one to fill Congressman Leonard Lance’s old seat in a heavily Republican district. Both are safe for the incumbent party.

NJCentrist lives in a small city in Union County, in central New Jersey. He’s part of the electorate in the 7th congressional district, a swing district represented by moderate Republican Rep. Leonard Lance. He’s also a part of the electorate in the 21st legislative district, a solidly Republican district represented in the State Senate by Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., and in the State Assembly by Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick and Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz. Like a majority of Americans, NJCentrist approves of President Obama.

Rasmussen (10/19, likely voters, 8/17 in parens) (primary numbers):

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (29)

Charlie Crist (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 9 (10)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Kendrick Meek (D): 31 (30)

Marco Rubio (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 8 (8)

Not sure: 15 (19)

(MoE: ±3%)

Charlie Crist (R): 49 (53)

Marco Rubio (R): 35 (31)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 12 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Wouldn’t you know it… minutes after hitting “post” on the new Quinnipiac poll of Florida’s Senate race, there’s a new Rasmussen too. In the primary, Rasmussen sees the same dwindling Charlie Crist advantage as Quinnipac; where Quinnipiac saw it 50-35 edge for Crist (down from 55-26), Rasmussen sees it a 49-35 race (down from 53-31).

Where they differ is how they see the general, especially the Kendrick Meek/Marco Rubio matchup. Where Quinnipiac gives Meek a 3-point edge, Rasmussen sees Rubio not only beating Meek by 15, but actually overperforming Crist (who beats Meek by 12, down from a 19-point margin before). Looks like Rasmussen’s aggressive likely voter screen in the general (versus Quinnipiac’s use of registered voters) is picking up lots of conservative diehards.

RaceTracker: FL-Sen

EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV (10/11-15, “active voters,” 5/18-21 in parentheses)

Primaries:

John Cherry (D): 33 (14)

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 5 (2)

George Perles (D): 3 (2)

Don Williamson (D): 3 (1)

John Freeman (D): 2 (NA)

Undecided: 54 (26)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 29 (27)

Mike Cox (R): 28 (26)

Mike Bouchard (R): 14 (NA)

Rick Snyder (R): 3 (NA)

Tom George (R): 2 (1)

Undecided: 24 (25)

(MoE: ±4%)

General:

John Cherry (D): 33 (36)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 40 (33)

John Cherry (D): 30 (36)

Mike Cox (R): 45 (35)

John Cherry (D): 30

Mike Bouchard (R): 39

John Cherry (D): 34

Rick Snyder (R): 32

(MoE: ±4%)

We’ve already used the joke “Cherry’s Numbers Are the Pits,” so I won’t bother you with that one again, but the Michigan gubernatorial race is certainly not going in the right direction for the Democrats. The problem right now seems to be that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, front-runner in the Democratic field, is inextricably linked to current Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration, which is quite unpopular right now as Michigan suffers from what are in all likelihood the worst economic conditions of any of the 50 states. There seems to have been a lot of decline since the last EPIC-MRA poll in May; while Cherry squeaked past Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox then, he’s losing by double-digits today. (He does, however, beat businessman Rick Snyder — probably the most moderate option among the Republicans, but also little-known statewide.)

The primary fields have gotten dramatically reshaped since May; on the GOP side, EPIC-MRA previously also included SoS Terri Lynn Land (who has since dropped out) but added Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And on the Democratic side, they previously included Sen. Debbie Stabenow (bizarre, since she has never expressed interest in the race), Wayne Co. Exec Robert Ficano (ditto), and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (who seems to have simply faded into obscurity) — which would explain why Cherry (and “undecided”) are performing much better in the Dem primary now. Still, with 54% of primary voters undecided, and losing ground in the general, you’ve gotta start wondering if Cherry is the best we can do here.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-Gov

• ME-Sen: PPP looked at Olympia Snowe’s approval ratings in the wake of her bipartisan-curious explorations of the last few weeks. Her overall approvals are 56/31 (not red-hot, but still in the top 5 among Senators PPP has polled recently), but interestingly, she’s now doing much better among Dems (70% approval) than GOPers (45% approval), with indies split (51% approval). Still, only 32% of voters think she should switch parties (with no particular difference between Dems and Republicans on that question).

• NH-Sen: A $1,000 check is usually just a drop in the bucket in a Senate warchest. But when you’re Kelly Ayotte, and you’re trying to offer up as uncontroversial and substance-free an image as possible, the fact that that $1,000 check is from Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum speaks a little more loudly than you might want it to.

• NV-Sen: Research 2000 has new poll data out for Nevada, although it’s on behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, not Daily Kos. At any rate, they find numbers pretty consistent with other pollsters, with Harry Reid sporting 35/54 favorables and trailing Sue Lowden 47-42 and Jerry Danny Tarkanian 46-41 (both of whom might as well be “generic Republican” at this point). The poll also finds 54% support for a public option (including 84% of Dems and 55% of indies), and finds that 31% of all voters, including 46% of Democrats, less likely to vote for him if he fails to include a public option in health care reform.

• MN-Gov: One fascinating piece of trivia about Minnesota DFL nominating conventions is that, like the national convention, there are delegates, and then there are superdelegates. Minnesota Progressive is compiling a whip count among the superdelegates in the Governor’s race. So far, the leaders are tied at 14 each: state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and state Sen. Tom Bakk.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen takes another look at the New Jersey governor’s race; their purported topline result is 41 for Chris Christie, 39 for Jon Corzine, and 11 for Chris Daggett, which is an improvement over last week’s 4-point spread for Christie. However, you may recall that last week they released two sets of results, an initial read (which found a tie) and then a re-allocated version that asked Daggett voters (and only Daggett voters) if they were really sure, which gave Christie a 4-point lead and which they flagged as their topline. This week, Rasmussen just toplined the version with Daggett voters re-allocated, without saying a peep about voters’ initial preferences. TPM’s Eric Kleefeld contacted Rasmussen and got the initial preferences version, which, lo and behold, gives Corzine a 37-36-16 lead. Would it kill Rasmussen to just admit that, sometimes, Democratic candidates actually lead in some races?

Meanwhile, as things further deteriorate for Chris Christie, New Jersey’s senior senator, Frank Lautenberg, has called for a federal investigation into Christie’s politicization of his U.S. Attorney office (starting with his election-year investigations into Bob Menendez). It’s not clear whether that’ll go anywhere (especially in the next two weeks), but it certainly helps keep doubts about Christie front and center. And if you’re wondering why Christie‘s campaign is faltering, it may have something to do with his own admission that he doesn’t really have that much to do with his own campaign strategy:

“That’s what I hire other people to do for me, is to help to make those decisions for me,” Christie replied. He added, “I’m out there working 14, 15, 16 hours a day. So the strategy decision is not something I’m generally engaged in.”

• NY-Gov: You could knock me over with a feather, but there’s actually a poll out today showing that David Paterson is in trouble (with an approval of 30/57). Quinnipiac finds that Paterson loses the general to Rudy Giuliani 54-32, and ties woeful Rick Lazio 38-38. Andrew Cuomo, on the other hand, beats Giuliani 50-40 and Lazio 61-22. The primaries are foregone conclusions, with Cuomo beating Paterson 61-19 and Giuliani beating Lazio 74-9.

• OR-Gov: A lot of Oregonians are scratching their heads wondering where Jason Atkinson, the purported Republican frontrunner in the governor’s race, is. Atkinson has raised only $2,000 and hasn’t been updating his campaign blog or social media sites. Atkinson’s legislative aide also tells the Oregonian’s Jeff Mapes that she doesn’t know what’s happening with his candidacy.

• SC-Gov: Contrary to reports earlier in the week, it looks like impeachment of Mark Sanford can’t come up during the one-day special session in the South Carolina legislature (which was called to patch the state’s unemployment compensation system — using those stimulus funds that Sanford fought against). Looks like he’ll survive at least until the full legislative session next year.

• VA-Gov: Three items, none of which are any good for Creigh Deeds. The first is the new poll from SurveyUSA, which has usually been the most Bob McDonnell-friendly pollster but has never shown Deeds so far down: 59-40. Even if this is an outlier (and it probably is, as it shows McDonnell pulling in 55% in NoVa and 31% of all black voters), it can’t be so much of an outlier that Deeds is anywhere near close. This is bolstered by today’s PPP poll, which finds McDonnell leading Deeds 52-40 (up from a 5-pt lead post-thesis-gate). And during last night’s debate, Deeds may have shut the door on any last-minute progressive interest in his campaign, when he said he’d consider having Virginia opt out of an opt-out public option. Of course, his camp is backpedaling today, saying that he “wasn’t ruling anything out” — but as any student of politics will tell you, every day you spend explaining what you really had meant to say is another day lost.

• CA-11: Not one but two more penny-ante Republicans got into the race against Democratic sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney: construction company owner Robert Beadles and the former VP of Autism Speaks, Elizabeth Emken. That brings to a total of 8 the number of GOPers, with former US Marshal Tony Amador the only one with a competitive profile.

• CA-47: Audio has been released of Assemblyman and Congressional candidate Van Tran’s brush with the law when he got involved in a friend’s DUI traffic stop. Tran has denied that he was interfering with the police, but the audio doesn’t exactly leave him sounding cooperative.

• FL-08: Yet another Republican backed off from the prospect of facing off against the suddenly mighty Alan Grayson — although this is a guy I didn’t even know was running: Marvin Hutson. Hutson instead endorsed Todd Long, the radio talk show host who nearly defeated incumbent Ric Keller in the 2008 GOP primary — who, to my knowledge, doesn’t actually seem to be running, at least not yet (and that could change, given the GOP’s glaring hole here).

• IL-16: Here’s a Democratic recruitment score (well, of the second-tier variety) in a district where Barack Obama won last year but the very conservative Republican incumbent, Don Manzullo, has skated with minor opposition for nearly two decades. George Gaulrapp, the mayor of Freeport (a town of 25,000 at the Rockford-based district’s western end), will challenge Manzullo.

• NYC Mayor: Incumbent Michael Bloomberg continues to hold a sizable but not overwhelming lead over Democratic comptroller William Thompson in the New York mayoral race; he leads 53-41. Thompson doesn’t seem likely to make up much ground without full-throated backing from Barack Obama, though, and he certainly isn’t getting that; Obama gave Thompson no more than a “shout out” at a New York fundraiser last night.

• Mayors: The New York Times has a good profile of the Atlanta mayor’s race, where the long string of black mayors may be broken. White city councilor Mary Norwood, from the affluent white Buckhead portion of the city, seems to be the frontrunner to succeed outgoing mayor Shirley Franklin, with the African-American vote split among city councilor Lisa Borders and former state legislator Kasim Reed (although polling indicates Norwood pulling in a fair amount of black support). This seems consistent with changing demographics, where GA-05 (which largely overlaps Atlanta city limits) has seen declining black and increasing white populations while the suburbs become much blacker.

• Census: Democratic Rep. Joe Baca has introduced legislation of his own to counter David Vitter’s amendment to require the census to ask citizenship status. Baca’s bill would require all residents to be counted in the census, regardless of legal status.

In less than 2 weeks, we will determine the winner of three important elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, NY-23).  At one time there was some chatter from the right that November 3rd would be a referendum on the Democrats.  For argument’s sake, I’ll agree with the conservatives and then try to analyze the potential results of these three races.  First, let’s look at the three races:

NJ-Gov  If there was ever a “come from ahead” loss staring at a Republican candidate in 2009, Chris Christie is the first man that comes to mind.  Christie made the mistake of touting a “reformer” image, but his strategy has backfired.  The Corzine campaign has identified flaws in this strategy by refuting it effectively.  Christie should have won this race going away, but Christie’s ethical issues have been the focal point as opposed to Corzine’s tenure as governor.  Chris Daggett’s popularity is the wild card.  At this point I think this race will go to Corzine due to the recent trends in the polls.  Daggett is a wild card, but Corzine should prevail by the skin of his teeth.  

VA-Gov  Creigh Deeds hasn’t caught on fire with the Virginia electorate.  McDonnell has the momentum, and I don’t see how Deeds will pull it off in less than 2 weeks.  I hope I’m wrong.  It has been noted that Deeds is a fast finisher, so I’m not totally writing this race off yet.

NY-23 Bill Owens might become the first Democrat to represent this district in many years.  DeDe Scozzafava is out of money and might actually finish 3rd in this race.  Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party’s dog in this race, and he’s attacking both candidates from the right.  Owens has some momentum, Hoffman has some momentum (if not even more than Owens), and DeDe is floundering.  This race leans towards Owens at this time.

If the Democrats win 2 of the 3 races, would it be considered a good night for the Democratic party?  If the Republicans only pick 1 of these races, how will they spin the results in their favor?  

Quinnipiac (10/12-18, registered voters, 8/12-17 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 31

Charlie Crist (R): 51

Undecided: 14

Kendrick Meek (D): 36

Marco Rubio (R): 33

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3%)

Charlie Crist (R): 50 (55)

Marco Rubio (R): 35 (26)

Undecided: 12 (18)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Alex Sink (D): 32 (34)

Bill McCollum (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 27 (25)

(MoE: ±3%)

Bill McCollum (R): 43

Paula Dockery (R): 7

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

There has been a general sense of alarm leaking out of the Charlie Crist camp in the last week or so, and it seems to have mostly to do with that alleged Chamber of Commerce poll that gave Crist only a 44-30 edge over Marco Rubio (although that poll has yet to be released). Well, the alarms will probably get cranked up a notch, now we have a public poll that shows almost the same thing: Quinnipiac’s new Florida poll shows Rubio pulling within almost a close a margin, trailing Crist by 15. Although here, there are fewer undecideds and Crist is still over the 50% mark — but given the trajectory of the two candidates, and Rubio’s sudden fundraising competitiveness, Crist seems poised to continue losing ground. Crist may be able to take some comfort in his still-high favorables, though: 58/30 (although Rubio is liked too and has room for growth, at 24/11).

Although Quinnipiac has polled Florida a number of times, this is their first time running general election head-to-heads. The 20-point spread between Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek isn’t a surprise; it’s right in line with Pollster.com’s 50-31 average on the race. What is a surprise is the Meek/Rubio matchup, which Meek actually leads by 3. That’s quite different than the 43-30 edge that Rubio enjoyed in August according to Rasmussen, who seem to be the only pollster who’ve been testing Meek vs. Rubio lately (although R2K found Meek beating Rubio 31-22 way back in January). I think it may be time for us to start rooting for the Club for Democratic Growth to get involved on Rubio’s behalf.

The governor’s race still looks pretty sleepy, with little movement from last time (although what movement occurred benefits Sink, who’s down by 4 now), and lots of undecideds (in fact, an increasing number of them). Alex Sink is still surprisingly little-known, at 23/8, but she’s Balloon Boy and Octomom rolled into one compared with state Sen. Paula Dockery, who looks poised to enter the Republican primary against Bill McCollum but comes in with favorables of 5/3.

RaceTracker: FL-Sen | FL-Gov

It really seems like Dede Scozzafava can’t catch a break, huh? First, it looks like Lindsay Beyerstein caught Scozzafava talking out of both sides of her mouth about the card-check provision of the Employee Free Choice Act. Dave Weigel sums up:

In September, Scozzafava’s campaign claimed she opposed the “card check” provision of the Employee Free Choice Act. But at the same time, she told the AFL-CIO, in a candidate questionnaire, that she supported EFCA’s provision that “would require employers to honor their workers’ decision to join a union after a majority of them signed a union authorization card or petition.”

In an attempt to nail down exactly where the Janus-faced Scozzafava stands on the issue, Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack got a bit more than he bargained for. McCormack did succeed in finding out Scozzafava’s views on card check (she says she supports it – at least, today), but the candidate was remarkably unwilling to answer any other questions. McCormack’s persistence didn’t exactly pay off:

I spotted Scozzafava later as she was walking to the parking lot, and asked her: “Assemblywoman, do you believe that the health-care bill should exclude coverage for abortion?” She didn’t reply. I asked her twice more. Silence.

After she got into her car, I went to my car and fired up my laptop to report the evening’s events.

Minutes later a police car drove into the parking lot with its lights flashing. Officer Grolman informed me that she was called because “there was a little bit of an uncomfortable situation” and then took down my name, date of birth, and address.

“Maybe we do things a little differently here, but you know, persistence in that area, you scared the candidate a little bit,” Officer Grolman told me.

“[Scozzafava] got startled, that’s all,” Officer Grolman added. “It’s not like you’re in any trouble.”

Calling the cops on a reporter doesn’t seem like a winning move to begin with; getting into an intramural battle with a conservative publication seems even more foolhardy. Nonetheless, a Scozzafava flack emailed Politico to claim that McCormack “repeatedly screamed questions” at the candidate. Other attendees said that McCormack was “quiet” during the event, so who knows. A spokesman for Conservative Doug Hoffman’s campaign opined:

If any police investigation needs to take place, it should be of Dede Scozzafava, for impersonating a Republican.

Zing!

Meanwhile, the Scozzafava camp decided to continue its fued with the Weekly Standard, releasing an email exchange between McCormack and another Republican spokesman to TPM about whether Scozzafava would vote for John Boehner as speaker should she win election. (The Scozzafava guy just comes off as squirrely.) The attacks on McCormack prompted Weekly Standard honcho Bill Kristol to weigh in, branding the Scozzafava campaign “desperate.”

But really, this is all a minor nuisance (albeit one a struggling Republican campaign can ill afford). The real news for Dede is worse – much worse. The Club for Growth just announced a brand-new $300K moneybomb on ads attacking Scozzafava for (what else) being a “liberal.” At the same time, the SEIU just dropped $82K on mailers for Dem Bill Owens, and the D-Trip threw down $132 grand on media buys. This brings the DCCC’s total spending to $520K.

Meanwhile, former GOP Majority Leader Dick Armey will campaign for Hoffman, while Susan Collins and Florida Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (srsly?) will stump for Scozzafava. Owens is probably feeling a bit more stoked than the competition about the help he’s getting – tonight President Obama held a fundraiser for him in New York City.

And finally, all three candidates agreed to a one-hour debate on Oct. 29th, though it won’t be broadcast until Nov. 1st.