Month: November 2009

• AZ-Sen: There are conflicting messages in Arizona in the wake of that surprising Rasmussen poll showing J.D. Hayworth almost even with John McCain in a Republican primary. Arizona’s other senator, Jon Kyl, says Hayworth isn’t likely to run, saying that he’s better-off hosting his radio show. Hayworth himself, on the other hand, just sent an e-mail to his supporters, saying he is in fact considering a race against McCain but first needs help paying down his campaign debt from his 2006 race. A prelude to a real race, or just some conveniently-timed grifting from some easy marks?

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina is trying to play up her pro-woman cred, even if it means coming off very ideologically confused: she said she would have voted to confirm Sonia Sotomayor, even though that gives Chuck DeVore a lifetime’s worth of ammunition to use against her in the primary. But yesterday she said she “shares Sarah Palin‘s values.” Um, all of them?

• IL-Sen: The NYT had a story yesterday giving voice to David Axelrod’s concerns about Alexi Giannoulias’s electability and his regrets about not recruiting Lisa Madigan, which got a lot of play elsewhere. They strangely left out one piece of information, though: Axelrod’s former consulting firm is working for the David Hoffman campaign.

• MA-Sen: More endorsements came out in the Massachusetts special election primary. AG Martha Coakley got the endorsement of Planned Parenthood, while Rep. Michael Capuano got the endorsements of the Massachusetts League of Environmental Voters and Black Women for Obama for Change.

• NY-Sen-B (pdf): Yet another poll shows Kirsten Gillibrand in so-so shape, as Marist dribbled out the last few results from the poll where the other results were released last week. Even as she gets better-known she still has a middling approval rating (3% excellent, 22% good, 39% fair, 12% poor, 24% unsure). Gillibrand loses 47-45 to ex-Gov. George Pataki, although that race looks very unlikely now (this same sample had Gillibrand down 54-40 to Rudy Giuliani, which still theoretically could happen). One item of good news for Gillibrand, though: she finally nailed down the endorsement of former colleague Jerry Nadler.

• IA-Gov: Here’s one more guy who has the potential to get teabagged to death in his GOP primary: ex-Gov. Terry Branstad. Branstad endorsed and raised money for Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson in the 2000 Senate race. Branstad rival Bob vander Plaats says that, as a result, using the same logic that pervades all movies about time travel, Branstad is directly to blame for the current health care bill. And while he’s at it, Branstad is also responsible for the deaths of millions, because he didn’t find a way to kill Hitler.

• MA-Gov: Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker already announced his running mate for 2010, and is fits with his financially conservative, socially liberal, insidery approach: he chose state Senate minority leader Richard Tisei. Tisei, one of five Republicans in the Senate, recently came out as gay.

• NV-Gov: There’s a new poll of the general election in the Nevada governor’s race, taken by PMI (a firm that previously did a poll of the GOP primary for a conservative website, but this one seems to be taken for the seemingly nonpartisan Nevada News Bureau). They only try out one permutation, assuming that Democratic Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman follows through on his threat to run as an indie. Republican former AG Brian Sandoval wins with 35, followed by Goodman at 28 and Democrat Rory Reid at 21.

• OR-Gov: Anti-tax initiative activist Bill Sizemore is kind of like herpes; he goes away, but is never permanently gone. With the GOP field now in shambles, Sizemore surprised everyone by announcing that he’ll run in the gubernatorial primary in 2010. He’s been out of jail for almost a year, so OK… but he may be headed back there if he follows through, as he’s under an injunction preventing him from raising political money. He plans on challenging that in court, though, at least to the extent to be able to raise individual campaign funds and not more initiative funds. If he somehow prevails in the GOP primary, this could lead to a replay of the 1998 governor’s race (where John Kitzhaber demolished Sizemore, 64-30).

• LA-02: With early entries by a few heavyweights, maybe we’ll be spared a large and chaotic Democratic primary for the right to beat accidental Rep. Joe Cao in 2010. State Rep. Juan LaFonta, long interested in the race, made official that he’s running; he joins fellow state Rep. Cedric Richmond in the hunt.

• NV-02: Do it! Do it! Reno attorney Ken McKenna has apparently been listening to the subliminal voices in his head, and was motivated to pull the trigger on a run against Rep. Dean Heller. (He’ll still face a Democratic primary against elderly ex-state Sen. Jack Schofield.) McKenna represents both personal injury plaintiffs and those accused of Breaking the Law, but he’s best known for his ill-fated suit against Judas Priest over a fan’s suicide. If he thinks he’s likely to win this race, he has another thing coming.

• PA-03: Ooops, this isn’t going to endear him much to the party base. Paul Huber, a local businessman who got into the GOP primary field to go against Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, was registered as a Democrat from 1975 until just recently. He switched to the GOP earlier this year. In his defense, he claims he was a “Reagan Democrat” and finally got driven out of the party because of, well, all the usual right-wing grievances.

• PA-06: Various developments in the 6th: on the Dem side, state Sen. Daylin Leach pulled his Doug Pike endorsement and switched to neutral, now that it looks like there’s an actual race between Pike and Manan Trivedi. On the GOP side, state Rep. Curt Schroder is facing a difficult primary against wealthy pharma exec Steven Welch, but got a boost via endorsements from seven nearby conservative legislators — including Berks County’s Sam Rohrer, who’s looking at a longshot gubernatorial bid.

• PA-11: Anti-immigration wacko wants to run for higher office, but needs supporters to pay down his campaign debt first? Sorry to keep repeating myself, but that’s happening in PA-11 too. Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta has been talking up another run at Rep. Paul Kanjorski, and has set a pre-Christmas deadline for a final decision. But in the meantime, he’s focused on raising donations to pay for his last run while considering his next one.

• VA-10: Republican Rep. Frank Wolf has proven extremely tough to pry out of his swing district, and it’s not looking like 2010 will be the year either. Attorney Patrick Lewis, who seemed to be the best bet here, has shuttered his campaign, leaving only two even less-known Dems (Richard Anthony and Dennis Findley) in the field.

• CA-LG: As many had expected, Arnold Schwarzenegger picked state Sen. Abel Maldonado to take over as Lt. Governor (now that John Garamendi is in the House). Maldonado is a sometimes-moderate who was one of Ahnold’s biggest allies in the Senate, who broke with other Republicans on budget issues (and probably earned too much of their wrath to survive a 2010 re-election). The Dem-held state legislature is mulling over whether to approve the appointment, which they certainly have the numbers to reject. Calitics is all over it, though, because Maldonado not only has little likelihood of remaining in office come 2011 (Dems he might face would be either state Sen. Dean Florez or LA city councilor Janice Hahn), but also because it would open up SD-15. The 15th is Democratic-leaning turf on the central coast; combined with another opening in SD-12, that’s a route to get over the magic 2/3s hurdle in the state Senate and actually pass a decent budget.

• NJ-St. Sen.: Guess who’s kicking himself for not taking over for Jon Corzine during the gubernatorial race’s low-water mark this summer. Now Richard Codey isn’t just not Governor, but now he isn’t even state Senate President anymore. Codey may be beloved by the state’s electorate, but not by his colleagues: he got bounced out of his position to make way for new leader Stephen Sweeney.

• Mayors (pdf): It looks like the anti-incumbent sentiment extends all the way down to local races too (OK, that’s not news; Greg Nickels and Tom Suozzi will certainly confirm that for us). A new Clarus poll of next year’s Washington, DC mayor’s race finds a 43/49 approval for mayor Adrian Fenty. Fenty leads the field, but at only 34%, followed by three city councilors: Vincent Gray at 24, Kwame Brown at 13, and Michael Brown at 6.

• RNC: If you went to college in the 1990s, you may remember the purity test that got passed around freshman dorms, which went a little like this:

I have:

1) solicited anonymous sex in the airport men’s room

2) claimed to be hiking the Appalachian Trail while actually visiting my mistress in Argentina

3) given a patronage job to the cuckolded husband of my mistress

4) texted an underage page about the size of his member

5) attempted to strangle my mistress

Wait, that’s not it. Anyway, the RNC is passing around a new purity test for future Republican candidates, which they have to score 80% on if they want official party money and support. (There’s been some public pondering whether worldly fellows like Mike Castle or Mark Kirk would even make the cut on this test.) And now the Washington Times (wait, they’re still in business?) is reporting that this test may even apply to NRSC and NRCC money as well.

• Photo of the Day: Some days I just don’t know whether to weep for my country, or stand back and laugh my ass off at it.

The Republican field in the Connecticut Senate race is suddenly shedding candidates. Unable to carve out any space between Rob Simmons’ name rec, Linda McMahon’s huge wallet, and Peter Schiff’s diehard base of weirdos, state Sen. and former Waterbury mayor Sam Caligiuri has dropped out and will instead run in CT-05 against Democratic sophomore Rep. Chris Murphy instead in the D+2 district (the most Republican-friendly one in Connecticut).

Caligirui will still have to make it past former Simmons aide Justin Bernier, who’d had enough fundraising success to get the NRCC’s attention, in the GOP primary. When the rumors about Caligiuri being encouraged to switch races started last week, Bernier made it clear he wasn’t going anywhere without a fight, and even invoked the specter of NY-23 in terms of what happens when insiders meddle in local races.

And now it sounds like former Ambassador Tom Foley — who wasn’t polling much better than Caligiuri, but who had more money and was closer to the state political establishment — may follow Caligiuri out the door. Foley released a statement saying he’s reconsidering the Senate race, and may jump over to the now-open gubernatorial race, where there is no official Republican candidate yet (although Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has sounded likely to run).

“I have had a number of conversations with people who are encouraging me to consider running for Governor because they believe I could better serve Connecticut today as Governor than as a Senator,” said Foley, adding that he will make an announcement on his plans next week.

You may recall that Ohio Democrats had some optimism over the candidacy of state Rep. Todd Book, who announced in July that he would be challenging chronic underachiever Jean Schmidt in this R+13 suburban Cincinnati district. Looks like the Book has been closed:

State Rep. Todd Book- the Scioto County lawmaker who is a favorite of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and Ohio Democratic Party leaders – is dropping out of the Democratic primary in Ohio’s Second Congressional District.

Dave Lane, the Clermont County Democratic Party chairman, sent an e-mail to Clermont Democrats Monday night saying that the 41-year-old legislator from the Scioto County village of McDermott is withdrawing because of his legislative duties in Columbus. […]

Book’s campaign took a major blow about a week ago when the Tristate Building and Construction Trades Council – which represents 15 labor union in southern Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia – pulled its endorsement of Book after learning that his Portsmouth law firm was representing a non-union construction firm in Georgia.

Book’s campaign never really got off the ground in an impressive way; he only raised $64K in the third quarter, and didn’t really show much chutzpah overall. But it’s difficult to blame him for taking a pass at what’s looking like an incredibly daunting race in the face of a GOP headwind.

With Book out, it may come to pass that businessman David Krikorian, who gobbled up a large chunk of the vote as an independent candidate in 2008, may become the Democratic flagbearer by default. Former Apprentice contestant Surya Yalimanchili is also in the race (as an independent), but is striking centrist-sounding tones rather than any teabaggy bluster which would be of more use for Democrats hoping for a right-wing split.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-02

Developing a line of attack he has used before, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats asserted yesterday that Terry Branstad’s past support for Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska makes Branstad partly responsible for any health care reform bill Congress passes this year.  

From the Vander Plaats campaign press release of November 23:

“Ben Nelson gave Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid the vote he needed to get the 60 votes to steamroll Republican opposition. It means the Democrats will be able to proceed with legislation that will effectively destroy our private health care system while saddling businesses and working families with hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes and limiting our access to care,” said Vander Plaats, who is seeking the 2010 Iowa Republican gubernatorial nomination. “Whatever happens from here on out, Terry Branstad is going to have to accept some responsibility because he was a very active supporter of Ben Nelson in his first campaign for the Senate.”

Several Senate Democrats have said their vote for cloture over the weekend was merely in favor of allowing debate on the health care bill. However, their votes opened the process for a final vote that only requires 51 votes to win passage of any legislation.

“In other words, it’s more politics as usual where Ben Nelson will be able to vote against the bill later and insist he opposed the government takeover of health care. But the real vote was Saturday and the Democrat that Terry Branstad supported as a ‘conservative Democrat’ sided with Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi,” Vander Plaats said.

Branstad, who contributed $1,000 to Nelson’s general election campaign on May 31, 2000 and $250 to Nelson’s 2006 campaign on July 17, 2002,  stood beside Nelson on May 31, 2000 at a news conference and endorsed the former Nebraska governor, saying, “It’s all right to help your friends. If he were in Iowa, he probably would be a Republican.”

Vander Plaats said, “We’re all going to pay an extremely high price for that friendship and that’s especially true for thousands of Iowans who work in the insurance industry. If Ben Nelson really did think like an Iowa Republican he would’ve voted no this weekend – just like Chuck Grassley did. Once again, this proves that elections have consequences and ideologies have consequences. The Democrats want to control us with our own dollars by taxing us more to pay for their ridiculous health care plan and Terry Branstad helped give them the leverage to do it.”

To my knowledge, Branstad did not get involved in Nelson’s unsuccessful 1996 Senate campaign against Chuck Hagel. By 2000, Branstad was no longer governor and probably never imagined he’d run for office again.

Todd Dorman of the Cedar Rapids Gazette mocked the Vander Plaats attempt to blame Branstad for health care reform, but my hunch is that this argument will resonate with some Republican primary voters.

The conservative noise machine has and will continue to whip up intense opposition to the Obama administration’s so-called “socialist” agenda. If Democrats defeat another Republican filibuster with exactly 60 votes, the media will emphasize that every Democrat voted to let the bill proceed.

By itself, Branstad’s past support for Nelson might seem insignificant, but it could reinforce doubts some conservatives already have about Branstad’s loyalty. Vander Plaats has gone out of his way to remind audiences that his running mate will share his values. Branstad picked pro-choice Joy Corning for lieutenant governor during his last two terms. Many of the business leaders who helped recruit Branstad for this race supported Mitt Romney for president, and Romney’s not the current favorite among Iowa Republicans.

The Branstad campaign struck a dismissive tone in its response to yesterday’s attack:

“Governor Branstad does not favor the health care reform bill being considered by the Senate. It spends too much money we don’t have and does nothing to create the jobs we so desperately need,” Tim Albrecht, a spokesman for Branstad, said in a written statement.  “Bob would do well to keep the focus on that and not violate Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment.”

They’ll have to do better than that as the campaign goes forward. There are plenty of vulnerable points in Branstad’s record, and Vander Plaats won’t be the only Republican attacker. Branstad is raising tons of money and rolling out endorsements, but Vander Plaats should have enough cash to get his message across statewide. He was featured on the cover of the November issue of Focus on the Family’s nationwide magazine, and last Friday, Chuck Norris hosted a $5,000 per couple fundraiser for Vander Plaats at his Texas ranch. If we’re lucky, national Teabaggers will get involved in this race too. They might be encouraged by the recent Des Moines Register poll showing Vander Plaats ahead of Governor Chet Culver.

I assume Branstad will have the resources to win the Republican primary next June. That said, I doubt he can spend the next six months asking his rivals to follow Reagan’s 11th commandment. Besides, Branstad has already broken his own rule by criticizing Vander Plaats’ proposal to halt same-sex marriage in Iowa by executive order. At some point Branstad will have to defend his past actions, and whatever he says probably won’t satisfy his detractors on the right wing.

Any thoughts on the Iowa governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

PPP (pdf) (11/20-22, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 50

Tommy Thompson (R): 41

Undecided: 9

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48

Terrence Wall (R): 34

Undecided:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 47

Dave Westlake (R): 32

Undecided:

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The Wisconsin Senate race had, until a few weeks ago, been shaping up to be a cakewalk for Russ Feingold. However, a poll from University of Wisconsin surfaced showing Feingold narrowly trailing former Gov. and former HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson (43-39), and Thompson then offered a cryptic non-denial of his interest, saying he was considering runs for governor, senator, and mayor of Elroy.

Well, Thompson may want to start thinking more about the position in Elroy (although it would mean going up against the fearsome Sharon Knuth machine): PPP’s poll of the Wisconsin race conflicts pretty thoroughly with the UW poll. Feingold leads Thompson outside the margin of error, and Feingold also has very large leads over the two minor Republicans already in the field. Feingold still provokes some ambivalence, with a 45/37 approval, but that beats Thompson’s 38/45 favorable (and Westlake’s 2/9!). Thompson may fare better in the open governor’s race, and I would expect that we’ll see gubernatorial numbers from the same PPP sample fairly soon.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Sen

Rasmussen (11/18, likely voters, 9/27 in parentheses, primary numbers here):

Terry Goddard (D): 44 (42)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 35 (35)

Some other: 9 (13)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Terry Goddard (D): 39

Joe Arpaio (R): 51

Some other: 7

Not sure: 4

Terry Goddard (D): 40

Dean Martin (R): 38

Some other: 11

Not sure: 1

(MoE: ±3%)

Joe Arpaio (R): 47

Dean Martin (R): 22

Jan Brewer (R): 10

John Munger (R): 6

Vernon Parker (R): 6

Some other: 3

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen is the first pollster to try out Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio in gubernatorial polls, and find he does really well, winning the GOP primary by a wide margin and also being the only Republican who can beat Democratic AG Terry Goddard (the appointed incumbent, Jan Brewer, who’s at 39/57 approval, certainly can’t). That seems to be mostly a name recognition issue: Arpaio is well-known both statewide and in nationwide anti-immigrant circles for his over-the-top efforts to fight illegal immigration, and he’s at 63/31 favorables (which seems to suggest not too many Latinos fit through their likely voter screen!). (He may be best known for other ham-handed tactics, including resumption of chain gangs, pink underwear for inmates, and housing overflow prisoners in tents.)

The thing is, Arpaio hasn’t given any indication that he’s running. There have been a few burbles of interest from his camp, but they seem more motivated by Arpaio’s ongoing conflicts with Goddard and his desire to yank Goddard’s chain. The two have clashed not only on immigration enforcement (Goddard is following Obama administration policy to move away from raids as a tactic), but also on ethics, as Goddard is investigating the Sheriff’s Command Association for campaign finance violations and Arpaio is investigating Goddard over Goddard’s investigation into former state Treasurer David Petersen (who later pled guilty to failing to report income). One other important, oft-overlooked detail: Arpaio is no spring chicken, at 77. (Discussion already underway in ChadinFL‘s diary.)

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Gov

• IL-Sen: South Carolina’s Jim DeMint is rapidly turning into the hard right’s kingmaker. DeMint has been considering offering his endorsement to Patrick Hughes, a real estate developer who’s become the teabagger of choice in the Illinois Senate primary, and Hughes has been buttering DeMint up. And this might help along DeMint’s decision: a straw poll on DeMint’s website asked who he should endorse in Illinois, and 74% said Hughes (with 15% saying “Other” and a whopping 8% saying Rep. Mark Kirk.)

• MA-Sen: Another poll of the Democratic field in the Massachusetts special election — this one for the Boston Globe, by UNH — gives a big edge to AG Martha Coakley, who’s at 43%. Rep. Michael Capuano has to be pleased with his trendline, as he’s up to 22% (the first time he’s broken 20), but with the primary only two weeks away, it seems doubtful as to whether he has the time left to gain much more ground. Stephen Paglicua is at 15 and Alan Khazei is at 6. Capuano may also be helped by a late endorsement, from Diane Patrick, the state’s First Lady. Deval Patrick himself claims that he’s staying remaining neutral.

• CO-Gov: Disappointing news out of Colorado, not just from the standpoint of what would give Dems the best chance but also in terms of pure fireworks — right-wing ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo reversed course and decided to endorse establishment ex-Rep. Scott McInnis in the GOP gubernatorial primary instead of teabagging him to death. Coupled with the decision of state Sen. Josh Penry (McInnis’s former rival in the primary until he got pushed out) to endorse McInnis as well, it looks like McInnis will head into the general against incumbent Dem Bill Ritter without sustaining much (if any) damage.

• MI-Gov: A poll for the Detroit Free Press by Denno-Noor of the gubernatorial primaries shows, for now, disengaged voters. “Undecided” has a big lead in both primary fields. Among the Dems, Lt. Gov. John Cherry leads at 20, followed by state House speaker Andy Dillon at 6, former MSU football coach George Perles at 6, state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith at 2, and former state Rep. John Freeman at 2. Among the GOP, Rep. Peter Hoekstra leads at 21, with AG Mike Cox at 15, Oakland Co. Sherif Mike Bouchard at 13, businessman Rick Snyder at 5, and state Sen. Tom George at 3. They also do a generic ballot test on the state legislature, where Dems lead 25-24; given the sheer number of open seats in the GOP-held state Senate next year, that suggests Dems may still be able to gain some ground there.

• OR-Gov: The fork can pretty much be stuck in the Oregon governor’s race now, as the one Republican who could make the race interesting finally confirmed last Thursday that he won’t run: as most expected, Rep. Greg Walden said he’s running for re-election in OR-02 in 2010. With the GOP down to the dregs — Allen Alley (the losing Treasurer candidate in 2008), long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim, and possibly former ex-NBA player Chris Dudley — all the action looks like it’ll be the John Kitzhaber/Bill Bradbury primary. (Which could get even more interesting if Rep. Peter DeFazio shows up — Chris Cillizza seems to think that DeFazio’s loud anti-Tim Geithner stance may be posturing to try and grab the economic populist corner of the gubernatorial field.)

• SC-Gov: It’s sounding like the SC legislature’s on-again-off-again flirtation with impeaching Mark Sanford is back on; a bipartisan panel of legislators will take up the issue tomorrow. South Carolina’s ethics commission is investigating a whopping 37 charges against the jet-setting Sanford, regarding travel and campaign funding violations.

• AL-07: Here’s a boost for state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., who’s one of a large field of Democratic candidates in the open seat race in the 7th trying to stand out from the crowd. He got an endorsement from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC. (His father, of course, used to be a CBC member.)

• AZ-08: Republican state Senator Jonathan Paton says that he’s been heavily recruited to run against Rep. Gabby Giffords in the 8th, and is considering it. Little-known veteran Jesse Kelly is all the Republicans have on their dance card so far.

• FL-12: First off, all the usual caveats about internal polls apply. Still, this is a pretty impressive showing, considering the district’s Republican lean and the overall nationwide trends. Democratic Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards is leading Republican ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross, 46-42, in a GQR poll taken for her campaign in this open seat race vacated by Adam Putnam. This may show the benefits of name rec; the Lakeland-based 12th’s boundaries closely overlap those of Polk County, so most of its voters are already familiar with Edwards.

• FL-24: Here’s an “oops” on my part from last week: former Winter Springs mayor Paul Partyka is indeed running against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, but he’s doing it in the Democratic primary, not on the GOP side! I suppose I was confused by his generally Republican-sounding language, which leaves me wondering where he’s going to find any votes, considering that Kosmas is already on the Dems’ right flank (she was an anti-HCR vote last week, for instance). CQ’s story also turns over some stones in the GOP field, perhaps finding some institutional momentum shift away from Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, whose fundraising has seemed to stall, to state Rep. Sandy Adams, who’s been picking up key endorsements from other electeds (like state House speaker Larry Cretul).

• IA-04: Iowa Democrats have located somebody to go up against Rep. Tom Latham, whose swing district presents a tempting target but has always managed to escape. School administrator Bill Maske has filed candidacy paperwork.

• NJ-03: Here’s another GOP celebrity candidate who apparently thinks that voting is for the little people. Former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Jon Runyan (who, as his job would suggest, is in fact quite a big person) missed four of nine general elections between 2000 and 2008, and only registered as a Republican this month.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is doing his best to turn into the GOP’s version of Christine Jennings, trying to decide whether or not to challenge the election results from the 23rd. Any challenge would presumably target the voting machine failures in St. Lawrence County.

• SC-04: More Jim DeMint news: he won’t be endorsing or helping Rep. Bob Inglis, who holds the unusual distinction of having held SC-04 both before and after DeMint. Inglis, who probably is the person most likely to be teabagged to death next year, is facing at least two tough primary opponents and has been making increasingly moderate noises.

• Ads: The SEIU is coming to the defense of eight House members, spending $1 million on TV spots thanking them for backing health care reform: Baron Hill, Dina Titus, Paul Hodes, Earl Pomeroy, Tom Perriello, Mike Michaud, Brad Ellsworth, and Joe Donnelly.

• Census: Here’s an interesting idea; the Census is a “strange beneficiary” of the recession, and may even help briefly improve job numbers. In 2000, hiring for the Census was a big problem when the economy was healthy; this year, they’re having no recruitment problems for the one million temporary jobs they’ll need to fill this spring.

This is according to Rasmussen so it could be another push poll.  Gov Brewer is a distant third.  They also give Arpaio with a big lead over Goddard, ehich sounds VERY suspect.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

If Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio decides to seek the Republican nomination for governor of Arizona, he will enter the race as the clear favorite. Incumbent Governor Jan Brewer places third in an early look at the 2010 GOP gubernatorial race.

Election 2010: Arizona Governor GOP Primary

Brewer

10%

Arpaio

47%

Martin

22%

Munger

6%

Parker

6%

Some other candidate

3%

Not sure

7%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Jan Brewer (R)

35%

Terry Goddard (D)

44%

Some Other Candidate

9%

Not Sure

12%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Joe Arpaio (R)

51%

Terry Goddard (D)

39%

Some Other Candidate

7%

Not Sure

4%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Dean Martin (R)

38%

Terry Goddard (D)

40%

Some Other Candidate

11%

Not Sure

11%

 

Texas Democrats were facing a couple pieces of bad news. First, Kay Bailey Hutchison pushed back her resignation from the Senate until after the Texas gubernatorial primary, so that any special election would coincide with the regular Nov. 2010 election instead of being stand-alone — which would seem to hurt Democratic chances, at least in Texas. (Somehow I suspect that, if she does lose the gubernatorial primary, she won’t be resigning her Senate seat at all. Maybe that’s just me, but it seems like other people are getting the message too, like state Sen. Florence Shapiro. Rumored to be in the hunt for a Senate special election, she’s just announced she’s running for re-election instead.)

And second, leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Schieffer will be announcing today that he’s ending his candidacy. Well, maybe that’s not bad news, in that Schieffer wasn’t fundraising well, wasn’t putting up impressive poll numbers, and his previous Bush-backing ways weren’t enthusing Democrats. At any rate, that leaves a big opening in the governor’s race, and at the same time, Democratic candidates who’ve been fundraising like gangbusters for a Senate race now milling around wondering what to do with themselves and their stockpiled cash…

Enter outgoing Houston mayor Bill White:

It’s looking more and more like Houston Mayor Bill White (D) will switch from running for Senate to running for governor.

White’s campaign said as late as last week that it was focused on running for Senate, but now the Houston Chronicle has two “reliable” sources saying he will make the switch. The news comes as a White-for-governor chorus has been building.

It’s possible that the persistent rumors of White getting in (over the last few weeks) were enough to drive Schieffer out. If White does head over to the governor’s race, that would still leave former comptroller John Sharp as the Democratic option in a Senate race that may or may not happen. For now, White’s campaign isn’t confirming or denying yet, but says they’ll have a statement after Schieffer’s official withdrawal.

UPDATE: White, at his press conference, merely said that he’s “considering” the governor’s race, after which he promptly started behaving like a candidate and attacking Rick Perry’s record. He’ll let us know about his decision by Dec. 4.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-Gov | TX-Sen

Here’s hoping this is an isolated incident and not the start of a trend:

U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat who confounded the GOP by winning six consecutive elections in a heavily Republican district, will not seek re-election next year, key Democrats said Sunday.

Moore, who represented Johnson, Wyandotte and a portion of Douglas counties, will issue a statement today explaining his decision and outlining his plans. Moore, 64, is expected to finish out his term, which ends in January 2011.

Maybe this shouldn’t be a total surprise, as Moore was a rumored retirement in the immediate aftermath of last year’s election, although he quickly resolved to run in 2010. As most of you know, open seats were where we really got killed in 1994, so hopefully Moore’s reversal won’t put ideas in the heads of too many other Blue Dogs feeling the heat in red-leaning districts.

“Heavily Republican” in the above quote is a bit of an overstatement, as Barack Obama narrowly won this district last year and it currently sits at R+3, making it now the most favorable part of Kansas to us. Former state Rep. Patricia Lightner is the only elected Republican already in the race (along with two unknowns), but everyone is already speculating that former state Sen. Nick Jordan (who ran in 2008, and given the trends that year, handled himself well, losing by 14 points), may now try again. Jordan is one of the few Kansas GOPers with appeal to both the parties’ disparate moderate and conservative wings. As for the Democrats, most of the Dems’ few state Senators in Kansas are found in this district, including Chris Steineger, who had made some noises this summer about running for Governor but didn’t seem to follow through (Steineger may not be a good bet here, as he seems to have irritated most of the rest of the state’s Democrats at various points).

UPDATE: Republican state Rep. and state House Appropriations chair Kevin Yoder leapt into action, forming an exploratory committee within hours.

LATER UPDATE: Politico reports that Jordan has told party leaders today that he’ll be running. They also mention a POS internal that showed Moore with a 44/48 re-elect, which may have contributed to his re-think on retirement. On the Dem side, no one has stepped up yet, but people are focusing on Kansas City, KS mayor Joe Reardon as the best bet. Tom Wiggans, who just got into the gubernatorial race, could also possibly shift gears and jump over to the 3rd.

RaceTracker Wiki: KS-03