Month: November 2009

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

This map is not what you think it is. Take a moment to guess what it represents.

The answer below the flip.

At first glance, it looks a lot like the results of the 2008 presidential election. The northeast and midwest are all blue. Then there’s the west coast – a long line of blue counties. One could be quite easily forgiven if one took this map for a county-by-county map of the 2008 presidential election.

In fact, here are the real election results:

[Note: If you want to better compare the two maps, open two tabs of this (the first map) and

this (the actual results). Then switch between them.]

There is an extremely strong correlation between the two maps. Almost all the same counties are blue or red. Peering closer only cements this impression. Nevada has three blue counties – the exact three Democrats won. In Texas, only the cities and the Hispanic southwest are blue – a precise replication of the real results. One can go on and on, spotting these types of similarities.

Yet there are minor anomalies. Central Indiana and southern Florida are uniformly blue; President Barack Obama generally lost these areas. More significantly, the vast majority of Minnesota shows up red – strange, given that Democrats won the state by double-digits.

Minnesota should provide a clue of what the first map represents. Although the Democratic candidate won the state, it has been trending red for several elections. Before reading more, take a minute to refine your first guess.

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If you haven’t figured out what the first map represents by now, here’s a bigger hint: look at Arkansas. Notice how uniformly red it appears in the first map, despite the several counties Mr. Obama won. Try to guess again – you probably can figure it out now.

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Here’s the answer: the first map represents voting shifts between the 1992 presidential election and the 2008 presidential election.

As you have seen, there is quite a startling correlation between the two maps. Over the past four elections, the vast majority of counties President Barack Obama won have become more Democratic, while the vast majority of counties Senator John McCain won have become more Republican.

In the next post, I will attempt to analyze the meaning of this.

After a careful look at the state after coming up with a redistricting plan the first time around, I decided to be more aggressive, bringing the delegation to a possible 6-1 breakdown.  In another scenario I tried to create a majority Hispanic district, but while doable it makes a 6-1 breakdown impossible and would depose one of our current Democratic Reps.

I’m going off the assumption that Democrats retain both houses of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion, a tough fight but I think that’s how it’ll end up.  

This time the goals were to: A) Make Markey safe, B) shore up Salazar at least a little, C) Keep Perlmutter, Polis and DeGette in reasonably solid Districts, and D) transform one of the other 2 districts into a swing district.

Here’s a map of the result:

And a look at the metro area…

1st CD: Diana DeGette v. Mike Coffman

Population: 706,016

58% White, 13% Black, 20% Hispanic

This district still retains a substantial Denver county presence, keeping DeGette’s home in east Denver, the Denver portion runs roughly from Elyria Swansea in the north, keeping Capitol Hill, Wash Park and all the neighborhoods north of I-25 up to Virginia Village, then everything east and south of that neighborhood is in the 7th.  Denver now makes up 38% of the district.

The 1st now includes all of Aurora, including the far-flung areas and Foxfield before going south into Douglas County, picking up most of Lone Tree and a good chunk of Parker.  It also manages to pick up Mike Coffman’s home, removing him from any Republican district.

Despite extending into Douglas county, only about 26% of the 1st is Republican leaning, with another 18% of the district in southern Aurora that could be considered swingy.  with a majority still solidly Democratic and such a large minority population DeGette should have no problem holding the seat.

Having the 1st go south all the way into Douglas allows the 6th to also move south, picking up the blood-red areas in northern El Paso County.

2nd CD: Jared Polis

Population: 705,761

77% White, 16% Hispanic

As much as I wanted to draw Polis out of this district, I didn’t want to put any of Boulder County in any other district, so Polis can stay to grandstand another day.  

This district remains anchored in Boulder County, extending into Broomfield, Thornton, Northglenn, Federal Heights and Westminster in Adams County, and Grand County as it did before.  From there, however it becomes radically different.  

The 2nd extends into Jackson County, northern Routt County (excluding Steamboat), Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield (west of Rifle), and several precincts in Mesa County, including Fruita and parts of Grand Junction.  It also goes south into Jefferson, picking up the foothills area of Evergreen and Conifer.

This move was meant to draw as many Republican votes out of the 3rd as possible without turning the 2nd into a swing district.  It does have the nice effect of diluting the People’s Republic of Boulder more than it has been in the past, however, a side-effect I’m happy to see.

Once again, despite the move into more Republican territory, only 13% of the district leans Republican now, with another 41% even considered less than solidly Democratic.  (I included Broomfield, Northglenn, Westminister, Thornton and Federal Heights in that number, definitely pessimistic to call it swingy).

3rd CD: John Salazar

Population: 705,635

70% White, 24% Hispanic

Making Salazar too much safer would be pointless, he has a proven ability to hold this district by wide margins, despite Obama only getting 47% here in the old district.  There is room for improvement, however, just to be safe and keep the “Penry scenario” out of relevance.  

The biggest changes were to add  Eagle, most of Summit, Lake, Crowley, the rest of Otero, and Bent.  The latter counties are all small enough and friendly enough to Democrats to not make much difference, the ski counties, however, help a great deal in making this district less Republican, along with the territory taken by the 2nd.

The only other change was the loss of a handful of precincts in Pueblo County.  So overall still more of a swing district, with 37.5% of the district leaning Republican and another 7% more swingy, the rest at least leans Democratic.  Obama would have definitely won this district, but not overwhelmingly.

4th CD: Betsy Markey

Population: 705,422

68% White, 26% Hispanic

In terms of voting percentage, the 4th is pretty drastically changed.  Going from a narrow Obama loss to a solid Obama win.  By losing all the rural plains counties as well as eastern Weld county, there is only the increasingly blue Larimer county and the bluing southwest Weld county, including Greeley.  What is added here is all of Adams county except for Northglenn, Westminster, Federal Heights, and Thornton, making this district much more Hispanic as well.  So even if Cory Gardner were to win in 2010, he would be drawn out of the district and put into the 6th.  The result is a district where Obama received more than 54% of the vote.  

5th CD:

Population: 705,420

70% White, 24% Hispanic

This is the district I call “The Crab”, its the most severe gerrymander I could come up with given my limited data.  (Any other suggestions as to what this district looks like would be great!)  It goes from an El Paso County based district to going from most of Colorado Springs south into Fremont, through Park and Chaffee, back into Jefferson and Arapahoe, drawing out Lamborn.  The idea came from someone else on here, who wanted a springs-based district which Obama had won, but there’s not enough people in that area to make an entire district, so I had to get creative.

Put more specifically, this district takes in all the precincts Obama won in Colorado Springs and Fountain, as well as a few others that needed to be added to make the district contiguous, as well as Manitou Springs and Fort Carson, which Obama won.  Fremont and Park were both pretty solid for McCain, but their populations are negligible and there needed to be a link from this to the increasingly blue southern Denver suburbs to the north without going through Douglas.  To the south, the 5th takes in a few precincts in Pueblo County.

North of Park it includes Gilpin and Clear Creek and part of Summit, all of which went for Obama.  Once in Jefferson, the 5th avoids the wealthy Ken Caryl, and extends into Littleton in Jeffco for lack of a better name, once again leaving out the worst performing precincts, but still much of that area voted for McCain.  It then extends into southern Lakewood, going as far north as Mississippi Ave. and also part of Morrison.  Once in Arapahoe County the district includes Littleton, Sheridan, Englewood, Columbine Valley, Greenwood Village Cherry Hills Village and Centennial, leaving out Bowmar.  All of these except for Cherry Hills, with a population of just over 6,000 voted for Obama.  

So overall the 5th becomes extremely swingy, with 23% of the district leaning Republican and 41% of the district being made up of areas that are traditional swing areas.  There are definitely more Democratic voters now in the 5th than there have ever been, the 5th has never before been represented by a Democrat, but it should now be competitive enough to make that possible.  

6th CD: Doug Lamborn

Total Population: 705,583

81% White, 11% Hispanic

The 6th becomes a Democrats worst nightmare, taking in virtually all the most Republican areas.  The district takes in the rest of Douglas County and the rest of El Paso County, where Obama only one 2 precincts.  From there it extends into the heavily Republican Teller County, eastern Weld and Arapahoe Counties, and all the eastern plains counties not in the 3rd.  

With no Democratic areas to speak of and only 1% even remotely  swingy, this district isn’t even worth having a Democrat run in.  If Coffman were smart he would move into this district and fast!

7th CD: Ed Perlmutter

Total Population: 705,613

64% White, 28% Hispanic

The 7th retains its base in Jefferson County, keeping Perlmutter’s home.  It then also takes in all of west Denver includig the Civic Center, Lincoln Park, and most of Baker and east Denver south of I-25 and the Virginia Village neighborhood.    Its only Republican additions are part of south-east Jefferson near Sheridan & Bowles and Ken Caryl.  

Overall this district become more Democratic than before with only 5% of the district leaning Republican and 22% of the district being swingy.  (Golden, Arvada, and Westminster were considered swingy in this analysis.)  Obama would have won this district solidly.

This is probably good news for Bill Owens. Roll Call:

Accountant Doug Hoffman is seeking a re-match against Rep. Bill Owens (D) in 2010, after losing a Nov. 4 special election in upstate New York by approximately 3,000 votes.

In a lengthy message on his campaign Web site, Hoffman wrote he is moving “full speed ahead to 2010,” after deciding not to contest the election results, which were finalized Monday. […]

Hoffman will likely pursue the Republican Party nomination in 2010 after running on the Conservative Party ticket in the special election.

There’s no word yet whether or not Hoffman will face any competition for the nod, but there’s plenty of time for this one to shake out.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-23

I attempted to create a map of California that benefits Democrats and yet does not involve extreme gerrymandering. This is the result, with which I am quite pleased. Very few of the districts are overt gerrymanders, and for the most part the uglier ones are to meet Voting Rights Act requirements. In the end, I successfully packed most of the Republicans into 5 very solidly Republican districts, freeing up room for 47 districts that should reliably go Democratic barring extenuating circumstances and 1 swing district. The districts are generally organized from north to south, but I will still note the colors of the districts for ease. I will also note races and ethnicities that exist above 5% of the district population (“Hispanic” will be considered separate from the other races). Each district’s population deviates less than 0.1% from the ideal population, and can easily be smoothed out even more if the confines of block groups were removed. I may have made slight tweaks to some of the districts, but unless noted, the population percentages change by 2% at most.

California at large

Sacramento Valley

San Francisco Bay Area

Central Valley

Urban Los Angeles (the districts in the southeast, at the Orange County border, look a little different because I made some tweaks and didn’t feel like making the other maps over again; the districts shown in this map are the ones I discuss)

Orange County

Inland Empire

San Diego

District 1 (blue)

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

65% white, 7% Asian, 20% Hispanic

This is the only district in northern California that is overtly gerrymandered, but the small strip running through Sacramento and Placer Counties can easily be widened. Napa and Yolo Counties, which are in the current 1st district, account for about 45% of the new district, and Thompson should also be comfortable with the parts of Nevada County in the new district; the cities of Truckee and Nevada City are very liberal, and Grass Valley is a swingish place. The Placer County area shouldn’t be too conservative, since it includes the minority-rich parts of Roseville and all of Auburn and the Lake Tahoe area in the east. This gives the district the chance to neutralize conservative Citrus Heights in Sacramento County.

District 2 (green)

Incumbent: None

77% white, 11% Hispanic

Technically, this district has no incumbent, because Wally Herger (R), who represents much of the current district, lives in Chico. However, he will probably choose to run in this dark-red district, which includes Redding, lumber country in the north, and conservative Sacramento suburbs. He may face some primary competition from Tom McClintock of the 4th district, who represents the Sacramento suburbs and ran his first race for that district from Ventura County.

District 3 (purple)

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R), Tom McClintock (R)

43% white, 9% black, 16% Asian, 26% Hispanic

This district becomes much more diverse and Democratic. It drops many conservative parts in northwestern Sacramento County and its two counties in the Sierras, Amador and Calaveras, in exchange for minority portions of Elk Grove and Sacramento that are currently packed into the 5th district and heavily Hispanic parts of Stockton. Obama should have won this district comfortably in 2008, and considering Lungren only won by 5% against Bill Durston that year, he should certainly lose here.

District 4 (red)

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)

67% white, 22% Hispanic

The 4th district is effectively eliminated and replaced here, sharing only a small portion of Butte County and based in the northern exurban parts of the San Francisco Bay Area. It covers Santa Rosa in Sonoma County, and the extremely strongly Democratic town of Sebastopol. Although the Sonoma County part is only about 35% of the district, it is fiercely partisan, voting for Obama with about 75% of the vote, while the rest of the district is almost exactly even, and whichever Democrat decides to run here should win easily.

District 5 (yellow)

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

48% white, 11% black, 14% Asian, 21% Hispanic

All of Sacramento is no longer packed into this district, and it recedes entirely from Elk Grove. Instead, it marches east all the way to Folsom, picking up some very conservative territory along the way. Overall, Obama should still have received over 60% of the vote here, and if Matsui is unhappy with it, it can be expanded southward a little bit. A healthy minority population should forestall that, though.

District 6 (teal)

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)

74% white, 15% Hispanic

Woolsey’s district loses most of Sonoma County in exchange for less-progressive areas in the north, but in California, “less progressive” means Obama won with about 65% of the vote. It eats into a small liberal edge of Siskiyou County, probably ski resorts. In general, it takes Lynn Woolsey’s home city of Petaluma and various “conservative” areas in Sonoma County, which amounts to voting for Obama with about 70%. In theory, this district could be extended further into the mountains and free up more of Sonoma County for the 4th district, but that would look kind of bad.

District 7 (gray)

Incumbent: George Miller (D)

41% white, 9% black, 14% Asian, 29% Hispanic

The 7th district drops Richmond and San Pablo, two very progressive cities by the bay, and gains the parts of Stockton that aren’t in the 3rd district. This causes a large drop in the black population, but a corresponding gain in the Hispanic population. Even with the addition of very rich areas in interior Contra Costa County, George Miller should be very comfortable in this strongly liberal district.

District 8 (periwinkle)

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

48% white, 30% Asian, 14% Hispanic

Nancy Pelosi is living proof that Democrats should elect their leaders from safe districts; Tom Foley lost in 1994, Tom Daschle lost in 2004, Harry Reid is in serious danger in 2010. But Nancy Pelosi is probably safe even if God is proven to be real. This district keeps her residence in the Pacific Heights neighborhood, but shifts west, probably losing a few points of Democratic performance, but nothing to worry about at all. The westward move subtly benefits Democrats from the Central Valley, as will be revealed in a while.

District 9 (light blue)

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

39% white, 17% black, 23% Asian, 16% Hispanic

The 9th district now skips across the Bay Bridge into San Francisco and takes whatever is not occupied by Nancy Pelosi. It absorbs Berkeley and most of Oakland, but no longer all of it, and it fills in the rest of its population requirements with filthy rich cities in central Contra Costa County, inhabited by voters who tend to be socially liberal but fiscally moderate. The 11th district is sucked into eastern Oakland and becomes safely Democratic as a result of this, and that reverberates through the rest of the Central Valley. The drop in the black population is unfortunate, though; to fix that, the 9th can give Berkeley to the 11th in exchange for the rest of Oakland, but that makes the lines messier.

District 10 (pink)

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

39% white, 15% black, 13% Asian, 27% Hispanic

Garamendi’s district is substantially reconfigured to meet his needs, since the current version of the district was drawn for Ellen Tauscher, who resigned to work in the State Department. All of Solano County is present, constituting a majority of the district’s population. The parts in the Central Valley contain Garamendi’s home in Sacramento County and the very conservative city of Lodi in San Joaquin County. The tendril to the west counterbalances Lodi’s influence with San Pablo and Richmond, which are like mini-Oaklands in both ethnic composition and political leanings.

District 11 (yellow-green)

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

58% white, 8% black, 10% Asian, 20% Hispanic

The new 11th district is more compact and much more Democratic than the current district, and can be viewed as having three prongs. The prong in San Joaquin County covers Republican-tilting Manteca, fast-growing suburban city Tracy, and some deep red regions in the east. The Contra Costa wing drops Danville and San Ramon and instead picks up parts of Concord, Walnut Creek, and Lafayette. However, the Alameda wing is the most important part; it includes Pleasanton, McNerney’s home, and about a fifth of Oakland, responsible for the strong progressiveness of this district.

District 12 (pastel blue)

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)

44% white, 25% Asian, 23% Hispanic

The new 12th district is probably one of the cleanest and most logical in the nation. It takes in all of suburban and wealthy San Mateo County except Atherton, where Anna Eshoo lives, and a section of Menlo Park. It might be possible by combining certain parts of San Francisco with northern San Mateo County to make an Asian-plurality district, but there isn’t much reason for doing so.

District 13 (tan)

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)

34% white, 6% black, 31% Asian, 23% Hispanic

The composition of this district doesn’t change significantly; it just moves north a little as Barbara Lee’s San Francisco addition sucks it in. It maintains most of Fremont, all of Hayward, and the city of Alameda. A few more adjustments can easily makes this district Asian-plurality, but that wouldn’t really affect anything. Pete Stark is one of my personal favorite representatives, as the only openly atheist (imagine a country where “openly atheist” is more damning than “openly gay”) congressman.

District 14 (olive)

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

50% white, 31% Asian, 13% Hispanic

Anna Eshoo may want to swap a few tentacles of territory with Jackie Speier, since her base is in San Mateo County, but from an interparty standpoint, Eshoo is in no danger. This new district adds the city of Santa Clara and more of San Jose to become the “Silicon Valley district”. Relatively conservative (relative to the rest of Santa Clara County) Saratoga and Monte Sereno are also included.

District 15 (orange)

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)

34% white, 34% Asian, 25% Hispanic

This district is one of two newly Asian-plurality districts, along with the 32nd. Although 12% of California’s population is Asian, suggesting about 5 majority Asian districts, it is actually nigh impossible to create even one majority Asian district without drawing lines that are absurd and would be shot down in court because the Asian population is so thoroughly distributed throughout the coastal areas. The southern tendril now contains Morgan Hill instead of Gilroy.

District 16 (bright green)

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

30% white, 16% Asian, 46% Hispanic

Instead of being entirely confined to Santa Clara County and wasting precious votes, this district now takes in a generally swing part of Stanislaus County. However, the Hispanic part of San Jose occupies 45% of the population, ensuring that the new 16th is still safe for Democrats. There is a very strong chance that Lofgren will be replaced by a Hispanic representative when she retires.

District 17 (indigo)

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)

58% white, 6% Asian, 28% Hispanic

The general shape of the new 17th district was inspired by Abel Maldonado (R)’s State Senate district, but made more Democratic. Starting from downtown San Jose, it tracks toward coastal Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, picking up very white, very progressive, very high-turnout areas around Monterey Bay. In the south, it takes in Republican parts of inland San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Paso Robles, Atascadero, Orcutt, and part of Lompoc are neutralized, allowing the 22nd district to soak up more Republicans elsewhere and the 24th to transform into a Democratic stronghold.

District 18 (bright yellow)

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)

33% white, 56% Hispanic

More Hispanics are shoveled into the 18th, mostly from Watsonville and Salinas, both strongly Democratic cities. It no longer goes through Stockton and Modesto, but expands in Madera County and occupies the Hispanic areas of Turlock. It would not be a surprise if Obama won within the high 60s in this district, and Dennis Cardoza either needs to vote more liberally, or fall to a primary challenge. In a stroke of irony, the 18th now, like the 17th, resembles a Democratic-leaning State Senate district occupied by a Republican.

District 19 (dull green)

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R)

73% white, 16% Hispanic

George Radanovich’s current district, which Obama lost by only 6%, has far too many wasted Democratic votes; in fact, Obama won the Fresno County portion. The new form stacks up all the toxic territory that can’t be effectively cleaned up by the Bay Area. It recedes a bit from Stanislaus County, adds Clovis and white areas in Fresno, and takes Sacramento exurbs in El Dorado County, while staying out of Democratic South Lake Tahoe.

District 20 (light pink)

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

24% white, 5% black, 8% Asian, 59% Hispanic

Kings County and Bakersfield are dumped in favor of more of Fresno County and all of San Benito County. There is not really a net difference in Democratic performance, and Jim Costa is safe for as long as he wants to be. However, this district can easily be made more Democratic by trading more white parts of Fresno to the slightly packed 18th in exchange for Salinas. However, it seems more logical to pack the 18th to force Cardoza left, and Costa is safe anyways. If Watsonville, Gilroy, and Salinas are divided among two districts, they will shift the districts left, but not enough to put either Cardoza or Costa in danger of a primary.

District 21 (dark red)

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)

18% white, 5% black, 70% Hispanic

There are just enough Democratic votes left in the Central Valley to support an additional Democratic district. The demographics are a little deceptive, since many of the Hispanics do not vote, and those who do tend to tilt socially conservative, but Devin Nunes, whose home in Tulare is probably in this district, will probably be turned out of office nevertheless. The shape of the district is a bit ragged, but should be protected by the Voting Rights Act, since the Hispanic population growth should demand an additional district. A few more Democratic votes can be milked out by spilling into inland Monterey County, if that is necessary.

District 22 (brown)

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)

59% white, 29% Hispanic

This is easily the most conservative congressional district in California, which is surprising given its large Hispanic population, evidencing just how few of those Hispanics actually vote. It fits around the 21st district in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties, and includes a few sparsely populated areas of Los Angeles County for population purposes. The spike into inland San Luis Obispo County is unnecessary now, since the 17th district has it covered. The Los Angeles County parts can be removed and replicated in San Bernardino County, where they matter a tiny bit more, but it’s only 11 000 people anyways, and it would look worse.

District 23 (light blue)

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)

46% white, 5% Asian, 44% Hispanic

This sliver along the coastline fattens slightly in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, but still keeps its general shape. It can be thickened considerably more without any real difference in composition if block groups could be split in the application, since it borders some very sparsely populated areas covered by very large block groups. The district still goes into Oxnard, to make sure it is stable; there isn’t a better place to put those Democratic votes anyways, since the rest of Ventura County can be mixed and matched with very liberal West Los Angeles. It becomes a tad more Hispanic, but not enough to form a plurality.

District 24 (dark purple)

Incumbent: None

57% white, 7% Asian, 30% Hispanic

Although the new 24th district maintains most of Elton Gallegly’s territory, there are some major differences. Republican Simi Valley is clipped out, removing Gallegly’s home in the process, and the ultra-conservative parts of inland Santa Barbara County, like Orcutt, are neutralized by the 17th district. To make up for the lost population, 40% of the district spills into Los Angeles County, which sets its tone as a new Democratic stronghold.

District 25 (pastel pink)

Incumbent: None

25% white, 11% Asian, 60% Hispanic

The 25th district is eliminated and replaced in this district located in southeastern Los Angeles, cobbled together from various Hispanic areas left behind by the districts stretching into Orange County. The 25th itself snakes into Orange County, picking up most of Yorba Linda and Brea, both strongly conservative, and moderate La Habra. The very Hispanic parts of Los Angeles County, which make up over 70% of the district, compensate more than enough for the poisonous Orange County portion, though, and this district should be ready for a new Democratic congressman.

District 26 (dark gray)

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)

28% white, 7% black, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic

Some conservative-leaning suburbs north of Los Angeles, such as Arcadia and Glendora, are removed, but San Dimas, where David Dreier lives, remains. The pink city of Chino is added, but more importantly, the 26th now pushes into Pomona and Fontana, and adds all of Ontario. This pushes it to majority Hispanic status. If it seems to need some reinforcement, it can swap Rancho Cucamonga with the 43rd district, which has a larger Hispanic majority and more blacks.

District 27 (aquamarine)

Incumbent: Brad Sherman (D), Buck McKeon (R)

45% white, 9% Asian, 39% Hispanic

Brad Sherman’s district adds Santa Clarita to the north and drops the appendage that stretches into Burbank. Almost 70% of the new district is Sherman’s old territory, and it takes a little from the even more Democratic 28th district, which should be more than enough to force Buck McKeon into retirement. The white population inches up a tad and the Hispanic population does not increase much, which is good, since Sherman seems to have an abnormal fear of being knocked off by a Hispanic candidate in a primary.

District 28 (lavender)

Incumbent: Howard Berman

34% white, 7% black, 5% Asian, 49% Hispanic

40% of this district is now Lancaster and Palmdale; the former tilts Republican but was won by Obama, whereas the latter tilts Democratic. Generally, the new northern portion is a wash. The southern portion, which contains most of Berman’s current territory, is ardently Democratic, though, and easily outweighs the north’s swingish tendencies. In fact, the new 28th district can swap some territory with the new 27th if Brad Sherman thinks he isn’t safe there.

District 29 (pastel green)

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

47% white, 12% Asian, 34% Hispanic

The 29th district contracts into a round little thing and shifts substantially west, but, of course, remains as Democratic as one would expect for a district in the midst of the Los Angeles area. It now includes all of Glendale, Burbank, and La Canada Flintridge, and eats significantly into Los Angeles. It might gain a few points or lose a few points of Democratic performance, but either way, Schiff should be well-established here.

District 30 (pastel pink)

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D), Elton Gallegly (R)

73% white, 9% Asian, 12% Hispanic

Henry Waxman’s district sneaks into Ventura County and snaps up Republican-leaning Simi Valley and about two-thirds of equally conservative Camarillo. Even though Gallegly lives here, he would certainly lose to even a boiled owl with a D after its name, so of course Waxman is safe… oh wait… Anyways, the rich progressive areas around Hollywood steel the 30th against any potential Republican incursions. Interestingly, the Ventura County portion is less white than the Los Angeles County portion; the whites around Hollywood are the kind who are among the most reliable and socially liberal in the nation.

District 31 (pastel yellow)

Incumbent: Xavier Becerra (D)

28% white, 7% black, 11% Asian, 50% Hispanic

This district is kind of like the old 25th district in how geographically misleading it is. It connects moderately conservative areas in San Bernardino County, like Victorville, Upland, and a slice of Rancho Cucamonga, to central Los Angeles, using the vast Angeles National Forest. It also includes the minority-heavy western half of Pasadena. The whites in this district are a bit more liberal than is typical, since many hail from Pasadena.

District 32 (red-orange)

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D), Gary Miller (R)

18% white, 44% Asian, 33% Hispanic

The 32nd district changes significantly to accommodate Judy Chu, perhaps becoming a little less Democratic, but also much more Asian. It takes Walnut from the 26th district and Gary Miller’s home city of Diamond Bar, both heavily Asian municipalities, and then meanders through a bunch of Asian neighborhoods toward Monterey Park. This is probably the only district outside of Hawaii that would consistently elect an Asian representative; most Asians have no problem voting for a white candidate where the white population is high, but here it gets forced down by the substantial Hispanic population, and the Hispanic population is not large enough to win against the Asian population.

District 33 (pastel blue)

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D)

15% white, 23% black, 13% Asian, 44% Hispanic

The 33rd district loses a white tentacle to the north and picks up some whites to the east, and does not change substantially. It’s actually kind of sad that so many Democrats are locked into this festering district in the heart of urban Los Angeles. Hispanic population growth reduces the relative number of blacks, but blacks should still be dominant, considering how few of the Hispanics actually vote.

District 34 (pastel green)

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

7% white, 5% black, 6% Asian, 79% Hispanic

The 34th district will probably continue to be the most Hispanic district in the nation. It could be a good idea to “eliminate” this district, split it up into 4-6 chunks, and give Roybal-Allard one of them, to distribute the votes more efficiently and make more Hispanic-majority districts, but it doesn’t particularly matter, since every one of the Los Angeles districts is safely Democratic.

District 35 (pastel purple)

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

20% white, 20% black, 10% Asian, 47% Hispanic

By taking in the white and rather Republican Palos Verdes Peninsula, the 35th district preserves some semblance of African-American voting power against by keeping the Hispanic population from attaining a majority of the district’s total population. Still, Maxine Waters will very likely be replaced by a Hispanic representative when she retires, and it’s pretty much impossible to do anything about that. There once was a time when the black population constituted a greater percentage, but now it’s constantly dwindling.

District 36 (yellow-orange)

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)

35% white, 18% black, 10% Asian, 33% Hispanic

Jane Harman’s recent voting record has shifted to the left, but she still has a lot of problems and scandals to deal with. This district should ensure that her shift to the left is not temporary. The northern part of Maxine Waters’s district, which was left behind so the 35th could absorb the Palos Verdes Peninsula, including the city of Inglewood and parts of interior Los Angeles, is added. The population should be white enough to maintain Harman in a primary if she continues to improve, but should her former centrism return, she’ll easily be knocked off by a progressive minority candidate, considering many of the whites are Republicans.

District 37 (light pastel blue)

Incumbent: Laura Richardson (D)

30% white, 8% black, 21% Asian, 36% Hispanic

This diverse district is cobbled together from most of Long Beach, all of Paramount for extra Democratic votes, and Westminster and Fountain Valley in Orange County. The Orange County cities have a large Asian population, but they’re largely Vietnamese and conservative. Hopefully Laura Richardson, who has attracted too much controversy for a nondescript heavily Democratic district in an urban area, will be primaried out.

District 38 (blue-green)

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D), Ed Royce (R)

29% white, 11% Asian, 55% Hispanic

Like many other districts, Grace Napolitano’s new 38th district combines a moderately conservative part of Orange County with a strongly Democratic and Hispanic part of Los Angeles County. Pico Rivera and Norwalk cause the Democratic percentage to shoot up, which overrides the pinkish regions of Orange County, including Fullerton, Placentia, and Buena Park. Ed Royce is inadvertently put into the district, but he will be flattened by Napolitano easily in this Hispanic-majority district.

District 39 (light tan-yellow)

Incumbent: Linda Sanchez (D)

25% white, 19% Asian, 48% Hispanic

Linda Sanchez’s new district is very similar to the 38th, except its Orange County parts are more Asian. It includes large Vietnamese communities in Garden Grove and takes a chunk of Anaheim. The 39th district needs to extend deeply into the heart of Los Angeles County because the border cities of Artesia, Lakewood, and Cerritos are not super-liberal. However, South Gate and the unincorporated region just south of Huntington Park are, and secure the district for Sanchez, who fortuitously is placed right next to her sister, Loretta.

District 40 (red-brown)

Incumbent: none

29% white, 10% Asian, 56% Hispanic

What is currently the 40th district, in Orange County, is completely dissected and relocated into central Los Angeles County. Its basic purpose is to contain all of the non-Asian areas north of Judy Chu’s 32nd district. Glendora, at the east end, is rich and Republican, but is far outweighed by Pasadena, Monrovia, Los Angeles, and the unincorporated region south of Los Angeles. If it needs to be made thicker, it can take a strip of Angeles National Forest during the actual mapping and add barely any people.

District 41 (pastel gray)

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)

68% white, 22% Hispanic

The 41st district is the main sponge for Republican votes in the Inland Empire. It takes the white parts of Murrieta, Temecula, Redlands, Hemet, and San Jacinto, and all of Hesperia, Apple Valley, Yucaipa, Yucca Valley, Calimesa, and others. It also curves into Indian Wells, Rancho Mirage, La Quinta, and Palm Desert in the Coachella Valley. Its lines might seem awkward, but that’s partially because the block groups in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties tend to be quite large.

District 42 (lime green)

Incumbent: None

36% white, 9% black, 9% Asian, 41% Hispanic

The 42nd district is almost completely displaced, sharing only the city of Chino Hills and a small edge of Orange County with the current 42nd district. It contains all of Perris and Moreno Valley, which have surprisingly large black populations. It strikes through the minority-heavy blocks of Murrieta and Temecula, and then takes a small part of Yorba Linda in order to get to Los Angeles County. 60 000 people from Pomona strengthen Democrats further and is responsible for the Hispanic plurality.

District 43 (magenta)

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)

20% white, 12% black, 5% Asian, 59% Hispanics

The 43rd district edges east into the Hispanic parts of Redlands, adding Highlands and dropping Ontario. Joe Baca remains perfectly safe here, and in fact this district is probably still quite stacked with Democratic votes. Baca can share the wealth with the 44th district if California politicians think that a Democrat would have a hard time getting elected there.

District 44 (dark magenta)

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

36% white, 5% black, 7% Asian, 47% Hispanic

The population of the redistricted 44th district lies entirely within the current 44th district, a testament to the Inland Empire’s powerful growth. It includes all of the city of Riverside and most of Corona, where Ken Calvert lives. The slab of Orange County that is removed, including San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente, was responsible for keeping Calvert in Congress in 2008, so he will no doubt have significant problems surviving in the Democratic part of his district.

District 45 (turquoise)

Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack (R)

39% white, 50% Hispanic

The new incarnation of the 45th district may look absurd, stretching from the Inland Empire all the way to Lake Tahoe, but there actually is a strong community-of-interest argument for putting the resort areas in the same district. It may seem counterintuitive to cut Democratic Moreno Valley out of the district, but strongly conservative Murrieta is also removed. Only the minority parts of Hemet and San Jacinto remain, while Desert Hot Springs and minority parts of Banning and Beaumont are included. Due in part to natural growth, Hispanics attain a majority of the population.

District 46 (pastel orange red)

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)

39% white, 12% black, 10% white, 35% Hispanic

Ironically, this district becomes more Democratic even while swapping swing city Costa Mesa for very Republican Newport Beach. It maintains all of Huntington Beach and Seal Beach (interestingly, Huntington Beach, which is largely white, recorded the most votes of any city in Orange County in 2008, even more than Anaheim, which is much more populous), and the strip across coastal Long Beach is widened. Instead of proceeding to the Palos Verdes Peninsula, though, the new 46th turns north and adds all of Compton, Carson, and Lynwood; Compton was the most Democratic city in California in 2008!

District 47 (light lavender)

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)

16% white, 12% Asian, 68% Hispanic

The 47th district expands to include all of Santa Ana, and flows toward Anaheim via Orange rather than via Garden Grove. That causes a slight decrease in the Asian population and a corresponding increase in the Hispanic population. This district may not seem especially stable, considering the capricious turnout of the Latino base, but it should gradually become more and more Democratic as Hispanic participation in the political process increases.

District 48 (pastel orange)

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)

58% white, 15% Asian, 22% Hispanic

John Campbell’s district is probably the most swingish of all the new districts. Obama’s performance edges up several points with the removal of Newport Beach and most of Lake Forest, replaced by Costa Mesa and a slice of Orange. With Irvine’s abrupt shift leftward and the Laguna region’s social liberalism, John Campbell’s days in Congress are probably numbered. If a candidate about as strong as Beth Krom were to run in 2012, with Obama’s coattails, Campbell would probably lose.

District 49 (pastel red-brown)

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R), Brian Bilbray (R), Duncan Hunter (R)

74% white, 6% Asian, 15% Hispanic

The Republican primary in this ultra-conservative, ultra-Republican district should be very interesting to watch, as each candidate tries to appeal to the Orange County part as the tiebreaker. Darrell Issa’s base is the northern part of the district within San Diego, Brian Bilbray’s the left leg, and Duncan Hunter’s the right leg. Issa probably has the upper hand in the Orange County area, since he represents Riverside County adjacent to it, but he also has the smallest preexisting base.

District 50 (metallic blue)

Incumbent: None

49% white, 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic

This is one of the few districts that is very oddly shaped. Anchored in San Diego, it drifts north on two legs, picking up the parts of the coastal cities that are not included in the 53rd district and the minority parts of Vista and Escondido. It can dive further into San Diego if it is seen as necessary, but it has already dropped loads of conservative territory.

District 51 (dark brown)

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)

33% white, 7% Asian, 53% Hispanic

The tendril along the United States-Mexico borderline is widened to comprise of a vast majority of San Diego County’s area. It still includes almost all of Chula Vista and the southern foot of San Diego, but National City is removed in favor of more conservative Coronado and Imperial Beach, covering all of California’s border with Mexico. A small abutment juts into the Hispanic parts of El Cajon. Even if Democratic performance decreases several points, the presence of Democratic and heavily Hispanic Imperial County will keep Filner safe.

District 52 (olive green)

Incumbent: None

40% white, 9% black, 14% Asian, 32% Hispanic

The 52nd district contracts by shedding sparsely populated regions in outer San Diego County and absorbs many Hispanic parts of San Diego. Santee and Poway are also milked for what they’re worth. In total, the black and Hispanic parts probably pushes the district to at least the upper 50s in Obama performance, and if Duncan Hunter even tries here, he’ll be squashed.

District 53 (metallic gray) (God I hate working with this color)

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)

58% white, 8% Asian, 26% Hispanic

The 53rd district is removed from inner San Diego city and made more of a coastline district. The high white population may seem daunting, but coastal San Diego whites tend to be much more liberal than their inland counterparts. Susan Davis has experience winning in a lean Democratic district (that’s how she was elected in 2000), so even if this district is much less Democratic than before, she should have very little difficulty.

• AR-Sen: Could Arkansas even handle one more Republican in its Senate field, without the entire state collapsing into a singularity? Looks like we’ll find out, as former state Sen. Tim Jim Holt says he’s considering a rematch. Holt, you’ll recall, was Lincoln’s 2004 opposition, coming within 56-44 while running a low-budget, socially conservative campaign.

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The Cronkite-Eight Poll (conducted by Arizona St. Univ.) finds that AG Terry Goddard is in great shape against incumbent Republican Gov. Jan Brewer; Goddard wins the matchup 47-28. They don’t test any other potential matchups (including the Joe Arpaio possibility, which is suddenly on people’s minds). They also have good news! for John McCain, who beats the unlikely-to-run ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano 50-41. They don’t test the potential McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary. And speaking of Hayworth, I may have been more right than I thought about that throwaway “grifting” comment yesterday. Hayworth has been soliciting donations to pay down his campaign debt, but a quick look at the FEC’s 2008 termination report for Hayworth’s campaign indicates $0 CoH and $0 debt.

• MA-Sen: Rasmussen’s newest poll of the Massachusetts Senate primary shows the closest race that anyone has seen — although AG Martha Coakley is still in pole position. She’s at 36%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano at 21 (about where he was in the recent Globe poll) and Stephen Pagliuca at 14. The big gainer here (and where the chunk of Coakley votes may have gone) is Alan Khazei, who hasn’t broken out of single digits before but is now also at 14.

• NY-Sen-B: I see lots of weird rumors in my day-to-day work here, and this one is among the weirdest: it has ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (of Tennessee) considering running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the New York senate primary. Ford has been living in New York for the last few years (and is currently an executive at Merrill Lynch — not exactly a good political launching pad these days), so his run would at least be legal, but it’s not clear whether he has the name rec among anyone but news junkies to overcome his lack of roots there. Glenn Thrush actually sources the whole thing to a comment from Democratic Underground, of all places, from a person claiming to have been polled by Ford. Also, a sort-of famous name was considering running as a Republican in the Senate race, but just decided against it: Theodore Roosevelt IV, a wealthy investment banker and environmentalist who sounds, like his great-grandpappy, like he doesn’t have much in common with today’s Republicans.

• VA-Gov: T-Mac may yet be back. Terry McAuliffe is in a high-profile effort to lure a factory to southern Virginia, suggesting to some that he’s trying to remain in Virginia politics, trying to build up chits in the rural parts of the state with an eye toward a 2013 run.

• KS-03: Roll Call highlights a powwow held by the Kansas GOP for potential candidates in the open seat race in the 3rd, and list a few more names that we haven’t heard yet. In addition to likely frontrunner ex-state Sen. Nick Jordan, also present were attorney Greg Musil, former county commission candidate Charlotte O’Hara, state Sen. Karin Brownlee, and state GOP chair Amanda Adkins. State Rep. Kevin Yoder is also running for the GOP, and state Sen. Jeff Colyer and surgeon Steve Reintjes are also listed as GOP possibilities.

• NC-04: We may have a winner for the worst-designed candidate website of all time, from Republican George Hutchins, running against Rep. David Price in the safe 4th. It looks like he ate a lot of pictures of Ronald Reagan and then vomited them all over a flag.

• NJ-03: Former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan confirmed that he’ll be running against freshman Dem Rep. John Adler. Strangely, though, he doesn’t have any immediate plans to start fundraising or hitting the ground in the district; instead, he’s starting a new job. He’ll be playing for the San Diego Chargers for the rest of the season. Maybe his plan is to put all the money he earns toward his campaign, but it doesn’t seem like the right way to get off on the right foot.

• NY-23: So, maybe ACORN didn’t steal the election after all. Doug Hoffman has, by my estimation, now re-re-conceded (after two unconcessions), saying he won’t challenge the election results or ask for a recount, and that the final count of absentee ballots “reaffirm the fact that Bill Owens won.” Hoffman promises to stay active in politics; let’s hope he’s as effective in the campaign in 2010 as he was in the election’s aftermath this year.

• WV-03: Another long-time Democrat in a newly-Republican-leaning Appalachian district is facing a challenge instead of usual free path to re-election, but this time it’s a challenge from a fellow elected Dem. State Rep. Ralph Rodighiero has filed a pre-candidacy to run against Rep. Nick Rahall, who’s been in the House since the 1970s. Rodighiero sounds like he’s running at the behest of coal industry figures; although Rahall voted against cap and trade, the Natural Resources chair has tried to strike more of a balance on environmental issues than they might prefer (and with almost zero Republican bench in this district, this is their only foot in the door).

• IA-St. House: Dems held their own in a special election last night, retaining a Dem-controlled seat in Cedar Rapids. Democrat Kirsten Running-Marquardt got 75% of the vote against Republican Joshua Thurston in HD-33.

Well sports fans, it looks like we have a confirmation that Jon Runyan will throw his hat into the ring to challenge John Adler in NJ-03.

MOUNT LAUREL, N.J. — NFL player Jon Runyan says he’ll retire at the end of the season and launch a campaign for Congress in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

The offensive lineman was signed Tuesday to play the remainder of the season with the San Diego Chargers.

Runyan said in a statement that he had told Republican officials in Burlington County that he would retire after the season and seek to challenge Democratic Rep. John Adler in 2010.

Runyan has played 13 seasons in the NFL for Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. He never missed a game in nine years with the Eagles, starting 192 straight regular-season games.

He turns 36 on Friday.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/s…

The New Jersey Gubernatorial race’s polls appeared to resemble the polls in one of the Obama/Clinton primaries in 2008. In those primaries, Clinton led until about two weeks before the primary where Obama started kicking his volunteers into full gear. Then in the last few days (or the last second as in New Hampshire,) Clinton came from behind and won. The comparison does not include Clinton’s tactics or political beliefs; it just includes what the polls showed in the primaries. In early 2009, Chris Christie (R) was ahead of incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) and in the summer, Christe lead by ten points. I was not too worried until then because since 1997, Republicans have not won a statewide race in New Jersey. There is this saying that Republicans are Charlie Brown trying to kick the football from Lucy. Christie painted himself as a new voice and blamed Corzine for the economic recession. Corzine highlighted his experience on Wall Street and pointed out how Christie had no plan to fix the economy (Christie, releasing the same economic plan twice does not mean you have two economic plans.) Then in September, the race became very narrow. Independent Chris Daggett began to take independents on the Jersey Shore and Republican suburbs around Somerset and Morris Counties. Corzine, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs began running ads with his gigantic war chest and overall spent around $23 million, about 12 million more than Christie. These two factors heavily contributed to Christie’s slip in the polls but Daggett was the more prominent factor. He had numbers in the teens throughout October while Christie and Corzine hovered around 40%. This pattern remained until the last few days until Election Day on November 3rd. Many Daggett supporters realized that Daggett could not win so they began drifting towards Christie. This explains the final result where Christie beat Corzine and his running mate Loretta Weinberg from Bergen County 49%-45% with Daggett winning most of the remaining 6%.

It looks like Charlie Brown finally kicked the football. Corzine also learned that running ads criticizing your opponent’s weight does NOT gain voters. On average, Corzine won 12 points less than Obama and the margin between 2008 and 2009 shifted towards the Republicans by 19 points. Corzine did not lose much ground among minority voters but Obama performed much better among independent white voters. Yes, the main reason Corzine lost was that Daggett’s poll numbers fell down the drain. In this post though, I will explain how Christie won by analyzing each county in Southern and Central New Jersey. In an earlier post, I wrote about what to watch in New Jersey during election night. Besides analyzing the gubernatorial race results, I will also compare to my last post. As in the last post, the geographical designations are in the same places. Okay, here are the links: http://uselectionatlas.org/RES…

for election results in 2008. Once you click the link, go to the icon choose another office, select gubernatorial races, select a year and you should find yourself a map. Yes, the maps here have red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

this is for New Jersey’s demographic data. Click on a county and you will find the data for each county.

Southern New Jersey

In my last post, I said that even Corzine wins, he should still lose Southern New Jersey. Corzine lost and he definitely lost Southern New Jersey. Camden County is the most urban county in Southern New Jersey and Obama won 67% of the vote there in 2008. I said that Corzine needed to win by at least 15 points to win. Corzine barely missed, winning by 14 points. This explains that Christie was able to win white middle class independents but Christie lost Camden County because of heavily Democratic Camden City and its close suburbs. In my last post, I said that if Corzine won Gloucester County, he was successful with winning white voters in Camden County. Christie won Gloucester County by three points so Christie’s success among the Camden County suburban voter was widespread. Gloucester County has the same demographics as Camden County without the inner city. I found heavily white and rural Salem County’s result unexpected. Christie won by six points and since the county narrowly voted for Obama, I would have expected a larger Christie win. The answer to this question could be that Daggett peeled away enough Christie voters to narrow the margin. Daggett won 10% of the vote in Salem.

Another interesting result is Cape May County where Obama won 45% of the vote but Corzine won 38%, higher than counties with similar counties on the Jersey Shore. This could be because Kim Guadango, Christie’s running mate helped him in Monmouth and Ocean Counties further north but not at Cape May. Corzine won Cumberland County 50%-42% winning ten points less than Obama. I expected a smaller drop here due to large numbers of minority voters. As always, Atlantic County was the complete bellwether in the race as it was in 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2008. Christie won 49% of the vote and only 0.05% less than his statewide average, 48.75%. Atlantic County’s population is 61% White, one point less than New Jersey’s 62% White population. Atlantic County culturally may be closer to Las Vegas on the beach than the rest of New Jersey but Atlantic County has a close proportion to the rest of New Jersey of urban, suburban and rural areas. Ocean County just to Atlantic County’s north voted for Christie by 38 points and the increase over McCain’s margin in 2008 was only a bit above the average increase. The important point is the turnout which is about 2/3 the level of 2008, showing that Christie was able to turn out the base. Another important county was Burlington County which usually votes 1-2 points more Democratic than New Jersey and has similar demographics to Camden County. Christie won Burlington County by two points showing his narrow margin among the demographic of southwestern New Jersey white voters. Overall, Southern New Jersey voted similar to what I expected.

Central New Jersey:

Christie received large margins here, losing only one county. Christie lost Mercer County which contains heavily Democratic Trenton by only 16 points, 19 points less than Obama. Most of the voting was polarized with Christie gaining more than average over McCain while Christie gained less in heavily Democratic areas. Mercer County was a different story because even though it was a base county, the base did not turn out and Christie made inroads among the white voters here. In Monmouth County on the Shore, Christie’s running Kim Guadango who is from Monmouth County definitely helped him there. Obama lost Monmouth County by three points even though it is an upper class county that is 77% White. Christie won by 31 points, improving over McCain’s margin by 28 points. The large increase is probably due to not only Guadango but also that Daggett was unable to garner enough votes. He won only 6% of the vote and I expected the Shore would be a strong area for Daggett. If Daggett stayed strong and won somewhere around 15% of the vote, he probably would have reduced Christie 64,000 vote margin in Monmouth County by about 15,000. Another reason for Monmouth County’s strong Christie result is that the New York suburban white voter is trending towards the Republicans. As long as the Republicans stay away from cultural issues, they can start winning these voters again. If Democrats want to keep these voters, they need to highlight how they will keep your job or create one for you.

Moving onto Hunterdon County, Christie won there by 40 points, 27 points higher than McCain’s 13 point margin. Hunterdon County has wealthy independents and the large shift towards Christie is probably because Obama over performed with wealthy independents and they are reverting back to their normal voting patterns. Also, many of the wealthy voters may have trusted Wall Street so were angry that a former Wall Street corporate executive could not fix their economy. Somerset County is less Republican but contains many of the same voters as Hunterdon County. When I saw the Middlesex County result, I was pretty shocked. Obama won there by 22 points but Christie won by three. Middlesex County was not extremely white; its population was 53% White. Most of the minorities were Hispanic or Asians but Christie did not appear to make inroads among those groups. My explanation would be that Corzine failed to turn out the base and Christie did extremely well with white independents. Northwestern Middlesex County is close to his home, Mendham so Christie’s close proximity probably helped him.

Overall in Southern and Central New Jersey, Christie and Guandango’s homes helped them win voters while sweeping independents and preventing Corzine from turning out his base.

My next post, this time analyzing Urban and Northern New Jersey should be up in about a week.

Oh one more thing: check out http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. for more political analysis.  

Charlie Crist has been promising to get more proactive in dealing with the Marco Rubio challenge, but he’s taking a strange new approach to dealing with his growing unpopularity among the Republican base: attack the base for being wrong. He buried it in a statement of his own conservative bona fies, but it’s there all the same, calling out the teabaggers on their very teabaggishness:

“It’s hard to be more concervative than I am on issues – though there are different ways stylistically to communicate that – I’m pro-life, I’m pro-gun, I’m pro-family, and I”m anti tax…. I don’t know what else you’re supposed to be, except maybe angry too…”

… and makes fun of their marginalization… but it’s that same marginalization (real or not) that fuels the very sense of victimization that’s at the root of their anger:

“There are a lot of Republicans that don’t have the inclination to go to executive committee meetings….There is wide swath of republican voters out there that don’t necessarily listen to cable tv all the time.”

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest poll of the race (from late last week):

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/16-18, likely voters, 1/26-28 in parentheses):

Charlie Crist (R): 47 (57)

Marco Rubio (R): 37 (4)

Undecided: 16 (21)

(MoE: ±5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 33 (28)

Charlie Crist (R): 50 (49)

Undecided: 17 (23)

Kendrick Meek (D): 38 (31)

Marco Rubio (R): 30 (22)

Undecided: 32 (47)

(MoE: ±4%)

Not much change in the general election numbers since R2K first looked at potential matchups in January, when the idea of Charlie Crist in the Senate race was a bit fanciful. But look at that primary election trendline: the 10-point spread is the narrowest yet seen, and taken as a whole, it’s gotta be alarming to Crist. (Don’t get too excited yet about that 8-pt. lead by Meek over Rubio — 40% of GOPers are undecided, vs. 24% of Dems, so guess which way they’re likely to break.)

Once Crist finds out that attacking teabaggers for being teabaggers isn’t going to work, he might be looking for an even more desperate measure to save his well-tanned hide. Knowing that much of Crist’s success lies in his appeal to indies and soft Dems, Markos has been craftily working another angle: encouraging him to pull one of two variations on a Specter. It turns out the math is actually there for him:

Kendrick Meek (D): 31

Marco Rubio (R): 27

Charlie Crist (I): 32

Undecided: 10

Charlie Crist (D): 45

Marco Rubio (R): 34

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Finally, R2K also takes its first look at the governor’s race. Like most other pollsters, there see a lot of undecideds, and a narrow gap between Republican AG Bill McCollum and Democratic CFO Alex Sink.

Bill McCollum (R): 45

Paula Dockery (R): 9

Undecided: 46

(MoE: ±5%)

Alex Sink (D): 33

Bill McCollum (R): 35

Undecided: 32

Alex Sink (D): 35

Paula Dockery (R): 13

Undecided: 52

(MoE: ±4%)

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen | FL-Gov