Democratic Debauchery in Colorado (Redistricting)

After a careful look at the state after coming up with a redistricting plan the first time around, I decided to be more aggressive, bringing the delegation to a possible 6-1 breakdown.  In another scenario I tried to create a majority Hispanic district, but while doable it makes a 6-1 breakdown impossible and would depose one of our current Democratic Reps.

I’m going off the assumption that Democrats retain both houses of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion, a tough fight but I think that’s how it’ll end up.  

This time the goals were to: A) Make Markey safe, B) shore up Salazar at least a little, C) Keep Perlmutter, Polis and DeGette in reasonably solid Districts, and D) transform one of the other 2 districts into a swing district.

Here’s a map of the result:

And a look at the metro area…

1st CD: Diana DeGette v. Mike Coffman

Population: 706,016

58% White, 13% Black, 20% Hispanic

This district still retains a substantial Denver county presence, keeping DeGette’s home in east Denver, the Denver portion runs roughly from Elyria Swansea in the north, keeping Capitol Hill, Wash Park and all the neighborhoods north of I-25 up to Virginia Village, then everything east and south of that neighborhood is in the 7th.  Denver now makes up 38% of the district.

The 1st now includes all of Aurora, including the far-flung areas and Foxfield before going south into Douglas County, picking up most of Lone Tree and a good chunk of Parker.  It also manages to pick up Mike Coffman’s home, removing him from any Republican district.

Despite extending into Douglas county, only about 26% of the 1st is Republican leaning, with another 18% of the district in southern Aurora that could be considered swingy.  with a majority still solidly Democratic and such a large minority population DeGette should have no problem holding the seat.

Having the 1st go south all the way into Douglas allows the 6th to also move south, picking up the blood-red areas in northern El Paso County.

2nd CD: Jared Polis

Population: 705,761

77% White, 16% Hispanic

As much as I wanted to draw Polis out of this district, I didn’t want to put any of Boulder County in any other district, so Polis can stay to grandstand another day.  

This district remains anchored in Boulder County, extending into Broomfield, Thornton, Northglenn, Federal Heights and Westminster in Adams County, and Grand County as it did before.  From there, however it becomes radically different.  

The 2nd extends into Jackson County, northern Routt County (excluding Steamboat), Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield (west of Rifle), and several precincts in Mesa County, including Fruita and parts of Grand Junction.  It also goes south into Jefferson, picking up the foothills area of Evergreen and Conifer.

This move was meant to draw as many Republican votes out of the 3rd as possible without turning the 2nd into a swing district.  It does have the nice effect of diluting the People’s Republic of Boulder more than it has been in the past, however, a side-effect I’m happy to see.

Once again, despite the move into more Republican territory, only 13% of the district leans Republican now, with another 41% even considered less than solidly Democratic.  (I included Broomfield, Northglenn, Westminister, Thornton and Federal Heights in that number, definitely pessimistic to call it swingy).

3rd CD: John Salazar

Population: 705,635

70% White, 24% Hispanic

Making Salazar too much safer would be pointless, he has a proven ability to hold this district by wide margins, despite Obama only getting 47% here in the old district.  There is room for improvement, however, just to be safe and keep the “Penry scenario” out of relevance.  

The biggest changes were to add  Eagle, most of Summit, Lake, Crowley, the rest of Otero, and Bent.  The latter counties are all small enough and friendly enough to Democrats to not make much difference, the ski counties, however, help a great deal in making this district less Republican, along with the territory taken by the 2nd.

The only other change was the loss of a handful of precincts in Pueblo County.  So overall still more of a swing district, with 37.5% of the district leaning Republican and another 7% more swingy, the rest at least leans Democratic.  Obama would have definitely won this district, but not overwhelmingly.

4th CD: Betsy Markey

Population: 705,422

68% White, 26% Hispanic

In terms of voting percentage, the 4th is pretty drastically changed.  Going from a narrow Obama loss to a solid Obama win.  By losing all the rural plains counties as well as eastern Weld county, there is only the increasingly blue Larimer county and the bluing southwest Weld county, including Greeley.  What is added here is all of Adams county except for Northglenn, Westminster, Federal Heights, and Thornton, making this district much more Hispanic as well.  So even if Cory Gardner were to win in 2010, he would be drawn out of the district and put into the 6th.  The result is a district where Obama received more than 54% of the vote.  

5th CD:

Population: 705,420

70% White, 24% Hispanic

This is the district I call “The Crab”, its the most severe gerrymander I could come up with given my limited data.  (Any other suggestions as to what this district looks like would be great!)  It goes from an El Paso County based district to going from most of Colorado Springs south into Fremont, through Park and Chaffee, back into Jefferson and Arapahoe, drawing out Lamborn.  The idea came from someone else on here, who wanted a springs-based district which Obama had won, but there’s not enough people in that area to make an entire district, so I had to get creative.

Put more specifically, this district takes in all the precincts Obama won in Colorado Springs and Fountain, as well as a few others that needed to be added to make the district contiguous, as well as Manitou Springs and Fort Carson, which Obama won.  Fremont and Park were both pretty solid for McCain, but their populations are negligible and there needed to be a link from this to the increasingly blue southern Denver suburbs to the north without going through Douglas.  To the south, the 5th takes in a few precincts in Pueblo County.

North of Park it includes Gilpin and Clear Creek and part of Summit, all of which went for Obama.  Once in Jefferson, the 5th avoids the wealthy Ken Caryl, and extends into Littleton in Jeffco for lack of a better name, once again leaving out the worst performing precincts, but still much of that area voted for McCain.  It then extends into southern Lakewood, going as far north as Mississippi Ave. and also part of Morrison.  Once in Arapahoe County the district includes Littleton, Sheridan, Englewood, Columbine Valley, Greenwood Village Cherry Hills Village and Centennial, leaving out Bowmar.  All of these except for Cherry Hills, with a population of just over 6,000 voted for Obama.  

So overall the 5th becomes extremely swingy, with 23% of the district leaning Republican and 41% of the district being made up of areas that are traditional swing areas.  There are definitely more Democratic voters now in the 5th than there have ever been, the 5th has never before been represented by a Democrat, but it should now be competitive enough to make that possible.  

6th CD: Doug Lamborn

Total Population: 705,583

81% White, 11% Hispanic

The 6th becomes a Democrats worst nightmare, taking in virtually all the most Republican areas.  The district takes in the rest of Douglas County and the rest of El Paso County, where Obama only one 2 precincts.  From there it extends into the heavily Republican Teller County, eastern Weld and Arapahoe Counties, and all the eastern plains counties not in the 3rd.  

With no Democratic areas to speak of and only 1% even remotely  swingy, this district isn’t even worth having a Democrat run in.  If Coffman were smart he would move into this district and fast!

7th CD: Ed Perlmutter

Total Population: 705,613

64% White, 28% Hispanic

The 7th retains its base in Jefferson County, keeping Perlmutter’s home.  It then also takes in all of west Denver includig the Civic Center, Lincoln Park, and most of Baker and east Denver south of I-25 and the Virginia Village neighborhood.    Its only Republican additions are part of south-east Jefferson near Sheridan & Bowles and Ken Caryl.  

Overall this district become more Democratic than before with only 5% of the district leaning Republican and 22% of the district being swingy.  (Golden, Arvada, and Westminster were considered swingy in this analysis.)  Obama would have won this district solidly.