I’ve followed Arizona politics since I first moved there in 1995. Though I haven’t lived there full-time in almost a decade, I still read AZ political blogs (like the wonderfully-insidery Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion) regularly and try to keep up with political news there. Below, I’ve given a rundown of the major Arizona races and added a little analysis, as well as my predictions for November.
AZ-Gov: There are about ten thousand Republicans running for this seat right now, but only three serious candidates: Governor Jan Brewer, State Treasurer Dean Martin, and rich guy/former GOP state party chair John Munger. (Don’t believe the hype about Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio running; he had a clear shot at the nomination in 2002 and turned it down.) Brewer is underwater in both primary and general election polling, and is extremely unlikely to survive. Her handling of the state’s budget crisis seems calculated to anger independents (unhappy with her ineptitude) and Republicans (upset about her attempts to raise the state sales tax) alike. Munger is an intriguing candidate, in part because of his distance from the hated state legislature, but has stumbled out of the gate.
That leaves Martin, who is one of the stronger candidates the GOP could muster, but who still performs woefully against presumptive Democratic nominee and state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Goddard is the most popular politician in the state right now, and is trouncing most prospective candidates from both parties by double digits in the polls; Martin gets within eight points, but that’s still a bad place to be when your party controls the Governorship. The strange thing is that there are candidates who could possibly beat Goddard (Rep. Jeff Flake is the best bet), but they’ve been scared out by Martin’s entrance into the race. Unless Martin steps it up considerably, look for Goddard to score a rare Dem pickup in November. Prediction: likely Dem pickup.
AZ-Sen: If John McCain is the nominee here, up-and-coming Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman is the best candidate we’re going to get. He would run a race similar to Andrew Rice’s in Oklahoma last cycle: raise money, grow his name recognition, but ultimately not pose much of a threat to McCain. If former Congressman and teabagger darling J.D. Hayworth gets into the Republican primary, however, things get a little more complicated. Depending on how Hayworth polls against McCain, I could see rich dude, former state party chair, and 2006 Senate nominee Jim Pederson jumping in on the Democratic side. Pederson would be a strong candidate and could easily support his candidacy with his own cash. Less likely would be a candidacy by Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, who would have to recant his prior endorsement of McCain to make the race. Missing from all these possibilities, however, is any real way for a Dem to beat Hayworth, let alone McCain. I honestly think even Hayworth would make it very difficult for even Pederson to pose much of a threat in this climate, but we can’t rule out the possibility of a seat switch here. Prediction: likely GOP hold.
AZ-01: The GOP seriously misfired in their candidate recruiting here, digging up former State Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers to oppose Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Bowers’ title may sound imposing, but the man hasn’t been in politics in nearly a decade, plus he lives in Phoenix, which is the kiss of death in a rural district that prides itself on its ruralness. In addition, midterm elections coincide with elections for the Navajo Nation President and Tribal Council, which vastly increases voter turnout on the populous and overwhelmingly-Democratic Nation. Back in 2002, this turnout boost was good for a poll overperformance of nine points by unknown George Cordova against Rick Renzi. This district should be winnable for Republicans, but the last time they fielded decent candidates was in the 2002 primary (yes, I know they held the seat for six years after that, but my comment still stands). Kirkpatrick’s Blue-Doggishness fits the bent of the district, and unless some more solid candidate emerges to primary Bowers, I don’t see her losing. Prediction: likely Dem hold.
AZ-02: Someday, Democrats will manage to dislodge Focus on the Family-affiliated Rep. Trent Franks from this rapidly bluing but still very red district. That day will be a beautiful day. Sadly, that day is not today. As of now, we don’t even have a candidate, as retiree John Thrasher (whose wife used to be a state rep) isn’t running again. Prediction: safe GOP hold.
AZ-03: This district just got wild, as John Shadegg’s retirement convinced over half a dozen serious Republican contenders to jump into the race. How winnable the seat is for businessman John Hulburd, the well-funded Democratic candidate, depends completely on how divisive the Republican primary is and who makes it out alive. Some of the candidates, like State Rep. Pamela Gorman, are probably unelectable here; others might wipe the floor with Hulburd, but might be so drained by the primary that they don’t run particularly strong campaigns (something similar happened to David Schweikert last cycle in AZ-05). For now, we have to say that this is a Republican seat in a Republican year, and only in extraordinary circumstances would Hulburd be able to overcome that deficit. Democratic Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is talking about running here, too, but his DINO status and previous support for virtually all statewide Republicans would make it difficult for him to beat Hulburd in a primary. Prediction: likely GOP hold.
AZ-04: No one will beat Rep. Ed Pastor. No one serious ever runs against Ed Pastor. Ed Pastor is the safest Congressman in Arizona. Prediction: safe Dem hold.
AZ-05: Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert is a solid Republican candidate who got completely screwed last cycle. He won Arizona’s late primary (formerly in September, now changed by federal law to August 31) flat broke and bloodied by state-rep-turned-lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith and three other well-funded candidates. Still, Schweikert performed well against Rep. Harry Mitchell, and he’s back for a second try in a year much more conducive to Republicans. This seat was drawn for former Rep. J.D. Hayworth as a safe conservative district, and if Mitchell weren’t a local legend (the guy’s got a 35-foot statue of him in the city of Tempe, I kid you not) we’d lose this in a heartbeat. As it is, it has to be considered our most vulnerable seat. One bright spot is that, after vowing to clear the field for Schweikert this time, state Republicans weren’t able to keep rich dude Jim Ward from running against him. Prediction: tossup.
AZ-06: In 2008, librarian Rebecca Schneider gave Rep. Jeff Flake his first opposition in six years, managing 34% of the vote. Schneider’s back for a second try, and she’s probably the best we’re ever going to get in this seat. Flake is the safest Arizona Republican in Congress, but it’s nice to make him get out and actually campaign once in a while. Prediction: safe GOP hold.
AZ-07: Despite the change in the national mood, this race will play out exactly like it did last time. And the time before. The GOP will put up a respectable local candidate who’s not a serious threat to Rep. Raul Grijalva (this time it’s rocket scientist Ruth McClung). That candidate will lose in the primary to virulent racist Joseph Sweeney. Grijalva will then paste Sweeney in the general election. So has it ever been, and so shall it be again. Prediction: safe Dem hold.
AZ-08: After spending a lot of time trying to build up semi-serious candidate and Iraq vet Jesse Kelly, the GOP has managed to field a very serious candidate in State Sen. and Iraq vet Jonathan Paton. Paton is widely viewed as one of the few reasonable Republican members of the state legislature, and he is a lot smarter and better-liked than was State Senate President Tim Bee, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ opponent last time. Nevertheless, he’s still a member of the hated Legislature, and Giffords is still the smartest Democrat in the state. Paton is probably the most formidable opponent Giffords has ever faced, but if Giffords loses this seat, it’ll be part of a 70-seat landslide. Prediction: likely Dem hold.
Seats in order of likelihood of flipping: AZ-Gov, AZ-05, AZ-03, AZ-08, AZ-01, AZ-Sen, AZ-07, AZ-02, AZ-06, AZ-04.
Predicted outcome: Dems pick up the Governorship; all other seats stay in the same partisan hands (though I’m least sanguine about AZ-05).
