Month: August 2010

The Washington Senate primary was the main event last night, even though it the results were entirely predictable (as seen by PPP’s pre-primary poll, which got it almost exactly right). Patty Murray is currently at 46, with Dino Rossi at 34; Clint Didier doesn’t advance, at 12. Both sides, naturally, are foreseeing doom for their opposition based on the results. It’s a little premature to foresee anything, though, since, as if often the case in Washington, only about half of all precincts have reported, and the ones that haven’t reported are disproportionately in Seattle. (50% of King County is in, while 67% of precincts outside of King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties are in.) For what it’s worth, right now there are a few thousand more total GOP votes than there are total Dem votes in the Senate race (taking into account all 15 participants), though that will change once Seattle reports more. And there’s also the problem of getting teabagger votes to switch over from Didier to Rossi; Didier is currently withholding his endorsement, wanting to see “more conviction” and patronizingly insisting on giving Rossi “some coaching” first on how to reach his supporters.

One place where the results don’t bode well for Dems is WA-03, where Denny Heck is currently in first but with only 32%, against a fractured GOP field. He’ll face state Rep. Jaime Herrera, who hit 27%, followed by teabaggers David Hedrick and David Castillo at 13 and 12 (repeating the oft-seen pattern where the Tea Party could have been relevant if only they’d galvanized behind one candidate), and by Dem activist Cheryl Crist, who pulled in a surprisingly large 12, all of it seeming to come from Heck’s left flank. The total GOP vote topped 50%, and as Greg Giroux demonstrates with a terrific spreadsheet comparing the ’08 primaries and generals, there’s not much variation from the Dem and GOP totals in the primary to the November numbers. Americans for Prosperity isn’t wasting any time; they’re already jumping into the district with a $180K ad buy with a negative ad against Heck.

Real Clear Politics sees trouble ahead for Rick Larsen in WA-02, who’s currently ahead of GOPer John Koster 43-41; however, if you do the Giroux-style math, you’ll notice that two other random Dems vacuumed up 10% of the vote, which would project out to a 53-47 advantage for Larsen in a head-to-head. (The good part of the RCP article is about how Washington’s top 2 primary has taken the bellwether position once occupied by Maine’s weird early general election, from which we get the saying “As goes Maine, so goes the nation.”) They also took notice of Rep. Adam Smith finishing in the mid-50s in WA-09; he’ll probably face Pierce Co. Commissioner Dick Muri, although that primary hasn’t been called yet. And in the one seat where Dems are on offense, in WA-08, it’s Dave Reichert vs. Suzan DelBene, who got 48 and 26 respectively (with totals of 59 GOP-41 Dems).

Wyoming’s gubernatorial race came down to the wire on the Republican side. Former US Attorney Matt Mead is the victor, beating state Auditor Rita Meyer 29-28, with Ron Micheli at 26 and Colin Simpson at 16. Mead’s 714 vote lead was within the margin for a recount, but Meyer conceded and won’t seek a recount. Mead will face Democratic former state party chair Leslie Petersen, who won her own primary over Pete Gosar 48-37.

Finally, in California’s 15th Senate district, Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee defeated Dem John Laird in a near-identical replay of their first (but inconclusive) special election. Blakeslee won by a 49-44 margin, only slightly different from the original 49-42 result. As a pointless aside, there were more votes cast in this election (with the district’s more than 800K residents) than there were in the Wyoming gubernatorial race.

Quinnipiac (8/11-16, likely primary voters, 7/22-27 in parentheses):

Bill McCollum (R): 44 (32)

Rick Scott (R): 35 (43)

Undecided: 19 (23)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 35 (23)

Jeff Greene (D): 28 (33)

Maurice Ferre (D): 6 (4)

Undecided: 29 (35)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

A month ago, it was looking like the massively-self-funded vanity campaigns of Rick Scott (in the GOP gubernatorial primary) and Jeff Greene (in the Democratic Senate primary) were actually going to succeed, having bamboozled an adequate number of voters after swamping the airwaves with TV spots. With voters finally seeming to take notice of Scott’s massive Medicare fraud and Greene’s hard-partying ways (stuff that was always out there, but seemed to take a long time to break through the clutter), their implosion seems to be happening — belatedly, but rapidly, all the same.

McCollum’s turnaround is particularly surprising, as he’s actually venturing back into positive favorable territory (at least among the Republican primary electorate) after having temporarily gotten turned radioactive: he’s at 45/30, compared with 34/33 for Scott. (Quinnipiac should ask McCollum supporters how they feel about Scott, and vice versa… I think there might be some mutual exclusivity to those two sets of numbers.) McCollum’s also surviving despite that, by a 42-35 margin, GOP voters prefer someone who’s an “outsider” to someone with “experience.”

There is one other poll, out, though, that gives a small lead to Scott: it’s the GOP side of that Susquehanna poll for Sunshine State News (they released Dem Senate numbers yesterday). It’s a small lead, though; Scott’s up 44-42 (although he was up by 16 in the previous Sunshine State News poll in July). The same sample also took a look at the Democratic primary in the Attorney General‘s race, where state sen. Dan Gelber leads fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg, 38-27.

McCollum’s also getting some outside help from another new Florida resident: Mike Huckabee is giving his endorsement to McCollum, and will appear with him this weekend. The McCollum camp is also launching a new ad, focusing on Scott’s legal woes and featuring new footage of him running away from cameras, and even turning the C and O in his name into handcuffs for emphasis.

Realizing he’s up against the wall, Scott is pouring another $4 million of his own money into the race. (Somewhere, Meg Whitman was heard scoffing at the foibles of the little people who can only self-finance in the seven-digit range.) Scott’s newest ad references Jim Greer, the disgraced former state party chair, and tries to tie him to McCollum. That seems like it was a bridge too far for even the RGA, which condemned Scott over the ad and danced up to the very edge, in their statement, of almost (but not quite) endorsing McCollum. Also, Scott is going back to the well on the Rentboy scandal, trying to tie McCollum to George Rekers again with a new mailer. Whew! Remember back when we thought the Florida Senate race was going to be the slimy one?

2:07am: Well, things have pretty much ground to a halt in Washington, so we’ll probably just leave it for here for the night. Currently 60% are reporting in WA-Sen (with Murray at 46, Rossi at 34, and Didier at 12), but bear in mind that ballots are going to keep straggling in over the next few days (since they can be postmarked today). Only half of King County is reporting, for instance. At any rate, I did some rough extrapolation and it doesn’t look like the final needle will budge much: I’m projecting Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 11.

1:28am: We’ve gotten some more Santa Cruz Co. precincts reporting (now that they’ve stopped playing Jenga). That takes us up to 59% reporting, but with 91% of votes in by our figuring. It’s 49-43 for the GOP’s Blakeslee, and that’s still what we’re projecting as the final result in California.

1:03am: The AP has called Jaime Herrera for the 2nd spot in WA-03. She’s at 27, to Heck’s 32. That’s with 71% reporting. (In case you cared, they also called Jim Watkins as Jay Inslee’s opponent in WA-01. Inslee is at 57, Watkins at 26.)

1:01am: There’s 39% reporting in CA-SD15. But by our calculations, 87% of the votes have been counted, and we’re still on track for a 49-43 finale.

12:53am: Wow, it looks like we might go into overtime in Wyoming after all. We’ve hit 486 of 486, and Mead’s lead over Meyer fell to 714 votes (30,272 to 29,558). That’s less than a 1% margin (28.7%-28.1%), so Mead isn’t clear anymore. So, naturally, no AP call yet.

12:48am: Well, we’ve added 4 more precincts in WY-Gov, taking us up to 481/486. They don’t seem to have been much help for Rita Meyer, as she still trails Matt Mead by 1,250 votes. The automatic recount line is a 1% margin (again, thanks to Aaron Blake), and Mead’s edge over Meyer is currently 28.9%-27.6%, so he’s clear of the zone.

12:39am: Still no new reports in CA-SD15. We’d like to remind the good folks of Santa Cruz County that Proposition 19 hasn’t passed yet!

12:31am: One other small piece of bad news, although this is pretty down-in-the-weeds for Washington. Jim Johnson won another term on the state Supreme Court, beating Stan Rumbaugh 63-37 (for some technical reason that I don’t know, probably because it’s a nonpartisan office and there were only 2 contestants, this race is decided tonight). Johnson is the lone across-the-boards conservative on SCOWa. (The rest of you are probably now saying “You only have one conservative on your Supreme Court?!?”)

12:29am: We’re estimating 86% of the vote is in in CA SD-15. It’s still listed at 49-43 Blakeslee, and that’s what we’re still projecting in the end, too. Worth noting: the final numbers last time were 49-42, so, apparently, nobody changed their mind over the last month.

12:24am: We’re up to 56% reporting in WA-Sen. The latest report includes all of Benton Co. in eastern Washington (Didier’s home turf), so there’s a small Didier surge and Murray erosion: Murray 46, Rossi 34, Didier 12 now. Half of King is still outstanding, though, so look for Murray to push upward again.

12:20am: If you’re looking for something interesting to watch in Washington, try the GOP side in WA-09, where there’s a good establishment/teabagger duel for the right to face the probably safe Adam Smith. Currently, Pierce Co. Commissioner Dick Muri (a pretty good get in terms of his office, but a zero on the fundraising front) leads 2008 challenger Jim Postma 24-19 (with Smith at 53).

12:18am: Cue up inevitable lamestream media narrative of OMG! Mama Grizzly fail!!1! Is Sarah Palin losing her touch? (With probably no mention of G.H.W. Bush’s support of 4th place Colin Simpson.)

12:15am: Just like that, Campbell Co. in Wyoming reports. Mead won 31-23 there over Meyer, so that pads his lead a bit. Statewide, it’s Mead 29, Meyer 28, Micheli 27, Simpson 16 (with Mead’s lead over Meyer at 1,300 votes). That’s with 477 of 486 precincts total reporting, so I think this is pretty much over and done, in favor of Mead. (But no AP call yet.)

12:13am: The AP has declared victors in WA-08, as Suzan DelBene has gained some ground, though it’s still not a convincing win. It’s Reichert 48, DelBene 27. Also, they’ve called WA-02 for Rick Larsen and John Koster. It’s actually pretty close, at 44-41 for Larsen, but there’s also 10% going to random other Dems.

12:11am: The AP has partially called WA-03. They’ve given a check mark to Denny Heck (at 31), and presumably Jaime Herrera (at 27) will get one soon. Still 65% reporting.

12:09am: We’re up to 89% reporting in Wyoming, rattling toward a conclusion, and Mead is pulling a smidge ahead of Meyer. He’s up 29-28 over Meyer, by 750 votes. Nothing from Campbell Co. has reported yet, but it’s worth noting that neighboring county Johnson Co. went for Mead, 37-30 over Meyer.

12:07am: Wow, here’s a fun fact I just learned (thanks to Aaron Blake’s Twitter feed). Pete Gosar, the guy who just lost the WY-Gov D primary, is the brother of rogue dentist Paul Gosar, the guy who’s expected to win the GOP primary in AZ-01.

12:00am: White smoke is pouring out of the SSP Labs mainframe, although we don’t know who the new pope will be. What we do know is that we’re projecting the 49-43 margin for Blakeslee in CA-SD15 is predicted to continue all the way to the end, with all vote-by-mail having been reported there. (Even though we’re only at 27% reporting, 80% of the vote has reported because so much of it was by mail.)

11:56pm: We’re up to 65% reporting in WA-03, but things have flattened out. It’s Heck 31, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 12, Crist 11. That’s GOP 53-Dems 44, if you’re playing along at home, not an especially good omen for November.

11:52pm: Sam Blakeslee (R) pulls into the lead in CA-SD15, thanks to some reports from his turf at the southern end of the district (SLO and Santa Barbara Cos.). Now he leads over Laird, 49-43. With Santa Cruz not having reported much of anything yet, though, this could tighten again.

11:48pm: The AP also just called the WY-Gov D primary for Leslie Petersen, who’s up 48-39 over Pete Gosar. We’re up to 85% reporting. And we’re a long way from a winner in the R primary, although the Ron Micheli bulge seems to have passed. It’s now 28 each for Mead and Meyer (with Meyer up by about 50), with Micheli down at 26 and Simpson at 15. Looks like the biggest outstanding clot of votes is all of Campbell County (Gillette).

11:45pm: The AP has already called WA-Sen for Murray and Rossi. Murray’s at 47, Rossi’s at 34, with Didier at 10 and Akers at 2. That’s with 45% reporting, but without any of the WA-07 part (i.e., Seattle) of King County reporting yet.

11:41pm: We’re up to 45% reporting in Washington, and that includes a sizable part of King County now. That moves the needle quite a bit, to Murray 48, Rossi 34, and Didier 10.

11:38pm: I guess we should check in on WA-08. Dave Reichert’s at 50%. Suzan DelBene is way back at 19, although that should still be enough to easily get her into November. (There’s another Dem, Tom Cramer, polling at 11, and a few other stray Dems in single digits. The Seattle Times’ new pet rock, Tim Dillon, is at 5.)

11:36pm: 22% are reporting in CA-SD15, and things are actually getting better for Laird. He’s up 49-43 over Blakeslee. However, the new votes are from Monterey Co., his home turf, so, again, don’t start getting optimistic yet.

11:35pm: Wow, I pretty much forgot about Wyoming, and with 71% reporting, we’re in pretty much a 3-way tie among the GOPers. Micheli, Mead, and Meyer are all at 28%. Micheli leads Mead by only 22 votes, and Mead’s ahead of Meyer by another 550. For the Dems, not much change: 48 Petersen, 39 Gosar.

11:32pm: In WA-03, we’re up to 49% reporting. It’s Heck 33, Herrera 27, Hedrick 14, Castillo 11, Crist 11.  

11:30pm: Now there’s 25% reporting statewide, says the AP. (Typical Washington deluge.) It’s Murray 42, Rossi 37, Didier 13. But bear in mind that absolutely none (of 1788) of King County’s precincts have reported, so that should pad things out for Murray once they get going (late, as they usually do).

11:25pm: Definitely getting some disparities here between the WA SoS, and the AP. The AP says the Senate race is Murray 41, Rossi 36, Didier 14, with 15% reporting. In WA-03, they have 37% reporting: Heck is at 32, Herrera at 30, Hedrick at 16, Castillo at 10, and Crist at 9.

11:22pm: OK, here’s some unexpected good news, though: John Laird is leading Sam Blakeslee in the CA-SD15 special election, with 10% of the vote in. It’s 47-45. However, that’s in Santa Clara Co. only, so Laird’s stronger areas (like San Luis Obispo) haven’t reported. But recall that Laird lost Santa Clara last time.

11:20pm: In the only other federal race worth watching in Washington, in WA-03, Jaime Herrera actually has a small lead over Denny Heck, 27-25, with the assorted teabaggers fairly far behind (Castillo at 17, Hedrick at 13). Cheryl Crist, who primaried Brian Baird from the left in 2008, is actually racking up a fair share too, at 12.

11:18pm: Wow, a lot of Washington votes landed with a thud. (Over 222,000 of them, according to the SoS.) Patty Murray’s at 44, Dino Rossi is at 37. Didier’s at 11, Akers is at 2. Goodspaceguy is at 0.4%.

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RESULTS:

     California: Associated Press

     Washington: Associated Press | WA SoS | Politico

     Wyoming: Associated Press | Politico

There are a few note worthy developments worth pointing out in the highly competitive race in IN-09 This is too long for a comment so I thought it was worth posting. Enjoy!  

Firstly Baron Hill is currently walking the district. He will walk a total of 250 miles over the next few months. I think this will help a lot. He did the same thing against Coats in his Senate runs and I think it was one of the reasons he came so close to beating him. It has gotten positives press so far and the joy of it is it is the walk is spread out  so it will continue. Think every small town newspaper will talk of the Congressman walking through their communities. Expect positive advertising over this. Hill is known for being a good athlete and he comes off young and this helps, it really does.

http://newsandtribune.com/loca…

Although something that is very much not good at all is that it was discovered that Hill received a $25,000 donation from embattled Rep Charlie Rangel. Rangel is becoming a national name and I would not be surprised if Young makes an issue of it. I think that donations from Rangel may be a central theme in IN Republicans message this year as Ellsworth and Donnelly also received money. Although they both gave the money to charity. This could hurt Hill, it really could.

http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news…

Personally I do not think it is a big deal. He got the money before any corruption charges and has already spent it but it probably would have been better to give it to charity for PR purposes all the same.  

Hill and Young have agreed to two debates. Personally I think it will help Hill as he is more seasoned. However Hill is known for losing his temper but I think he can keep it together. Young, like any challenger, is trying to make hay out of the fact he requested more debates but was denied. Well get over it Toddy and be happy with what you got.  

http://www.courier-journal.com…

Also mildly worth noting, a right wing indy dropped out but I do not think it matters much as I doubt he would have gotten a percent of the vote. Honestly I did not hear of him before I read about it in the SSP Digest. I have also heard that primary loser and royal nutcase Travis Hankins has not been fully supportive of Young. I have still seen some Hankins signs any who.  

I think this race is going to be EXTREMLY negative. It always has been with Hill and Sodrel. I think Hill will try to make the race about Young, mentioning his alleged view that Social Security is a ponzi scheme and how Young is a carpet bagger, being from Carmel originally. Young will attack over Hill’s HCR and Cap and Trade vote and the infamous town hall from hell. I know a lot of people have moved this race from a tossup to lean D recently do to the rather nice internal we saw from Young but Hill is not safe yet. Minus 2008 Hill has never really had an “easy” election so I think he has the experience to  win but it is also worth pointing out that Hill has never been overly popular. At least I do not have to risk having Mike Sodrel as my Congressman again. I mean I do not like him but at least Young has a college degree and talks about things besides abortion. This will be a close race either way but I think we may just win it. Although I am not sure what this district will look like in 2012 so it may not matter much. I would rank this at tossup tilt D. I would love to get my fellow Hoosiers input as always. Also if anyone has any questions, comments or concerns I would love to hear them. Not just about IN-09, I feel in an Indiana sort of mood.      

11:14pm: Follow us over here.

11:06pm: Out of nowhere, Ron Micheli has pulled into the lead in the R primary. He’s at 30, with Mead at 28 and Meyer at 27. That seems to be all thanks to a huge clot of Micheli votes in Lincoln County (Kemmerer, in the southwest), which reported all at once and where he won with 66% of the vote. The bad news for Micheli is that there aren’t any more Lincoln votes, so this is probably as good as it gets for him, unless he has any other random counties where he has an advantage.

10:57pm: Things are tighter than Dan Rather’s pants after a big meal in a hot sweaty room. With 52% reporting, now it’s Mead with a 250 vote lead over Meyer (both are at 30), with Micheli at 24 and Simpson at 15. (Mead is viewed as less wingnutty than Meyer, for what that’s worth, in case you’re looking for somebody to root for.) For the Dems, it’s 47-41 for Petersen.

10:47pm: Now 40% reporting, but the needle’s oscillating much less wildly. It’s Meyer 30, Mead 30 (trailing by 200), Micheli 24, Simpson 15. For the Dems, still 46-42 for Petersen over Gosar.

10:35pm: We’re up to 31% reporting now, with much of Natrona Co. (Casper) in. On the GOP side, it’s Mead 31, Meyer 30, Micheli 23, and Simpson 15. For the Dems, it’s Petersen 46, Gosar 42.

10:20pm: Now we’re picking up some speed, with 22% reporting. On the GOP side, it’s Matt Mead surging into the lead, at 33, with Meyer at 28, Micheli at 23, and Simpson at 14. On the Dem side, Petersen’s now in the lead 48-40. That’s with much of her home base (Teton Co., where Jackson Hole is, and where she’s winning 86-10) having reported.

10:10pm: We got a big dump of ballots from Laramie Co. (Cheyenne), so now we’re up to 12% reporting. On the GOP side, it’s now 30 Meyer, 29 Mead, 28 Micheli, and 12 Simpson. On the Dem side, it’s now Gosar 49, Petersen 38… getting closer, but Gosar still may be able to pull this out. (4 precincts from Albany Co., where Laramie and the University of Wyoming are, have also reported, and they apparently still remember Gosar, as they’re going strongly for him.)

10:05pm: While we kill time here, did you know that Wyoming was the first state to have a female Governor? Nellie Tayloe Ross, a staunch prohibitionist, was elected in 1924. (She lived to be 101, proving you should stay away from demon rum.) They haven’t had a female governor since.

9:50pm: Sweetwater Co. also got caught up on the GOP side, so now that’s up to 5% reporting too. Interestingly, Ron Micheli, who’d polled in 4th, is in the lead, at 34. Matt Mead’s at 27, Rita Meyer’s at 26, and Colin Simpson’s at 12. That may also be skewed by geography, though, as Micheli’s also from the southwestern part of the state (although from Uinta County).

9:45pm: Actually, I am temporarily overruling my prediction of upset in the making. 24 of those 25 precincts reporting are from Sweetwater County. Pete Gosar was born in Rock Springs, the largest town in Sweetwater. So those early votes are probably his extended family.

9:41pm: After a terribly long period where only one precinct had reported, we’re finally getting some movement. Oddly, though, it’s only on the Dem side. On the GOP side, it’s still only 1 precinct reporting. Anyway, with 5% reporting, we might be looking at an upset on the Dem side, with Pete Gosar (his main claim to fame is former Univ. of Wyoming football star) beating state party chair and presumptive frontrunner Leslie Petersen, 54-34.

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Polls have now closed in Wyoming, and Washington will follow at 11pm Eastern.

RESULTS:

Associated Press | Politico

Public Policy Polling (8/14-15, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (31)

Mark Kirk (R): 35 (30)

LeAlan Jones (G): 9 (14)

Undecided: 19 (24)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

As you know, PPP has made the Great Schlep to a likely voter model from their earlier voter model, which was lightly-screened and tastefully seasoned with a patented formula of herbs and spices. (God, I’m hungry.) In terms of sample composition, the results have, predictably, been pretty ugly for Democrats. In this poll, for instance, the likely voter universe favored Obama over McCain by only 9% in the 2008 election — a big jump from the 19% Obama margin that PPP found in their poll from June, and from the actual election day margin of 26%.

However, unlike their Pennsylvania Senate poll, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is still holding onto a very slim lead. Some more color, from Tom:

Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can’t win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn’t doing that right now. He’s getting only 5%. Kirk’s getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it’s going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.

Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias’ favorability is 26/42 and Kirk’s is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.

Battle of the weak, indeed.

• DE-Sen: Looks like New York mayor Michael Bloomberg had to show some of that patented post-partisanship, having endorsed Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania yesterday. He offered a counterpoint in the form of an endorsement of Mike Castle in Delaware as well, and is doing a New York-based fundraiser for him tonight.

• IN-Sen: That grinding sound you hear is old-school Republican Dan Coats shifting gears, trying to fit into the Tea Party template. Having won the Republican Senate nomination in Indiana probably with big help from the split among teabagger votes between Marlin Stutzman and John Hostettler, he’s now working on outreach to that set, trying to keep the focus on financial issues.

• LA-Sen: Chet Traylor (who’s been seen polling in the single digits in polls we’ve seen so far of the Republican Senate primary) is out with an internal poll that purports to have him within striking distance of incumbent David Vitter. The poll by Verne Kennedy gives Vitter a 46-34 lead, keeping Vitter down in runoff territory. However, there’s a huge caveat: that number comes after voters were informed about Vitter’s use of prostitutes and employment of sociopathic aides, and there’s no word of what the non-informed toplines were. Meanwhile, Traylor seems to be gaining little momentum on the fundraising front: he’s filed a fundraising report showing he’s raised $42K since announcing his bid last month, and has $41K on hand.

• NH-Sen: Bill Binnie, with little time left to catch up to Kelly Ayotte in the GOP primary, is defying orders from state party boss John Sununu to keep everything positive, and is rolling out two negative ads against Ayotte. Both ads focus on her time as Attorney General and her failure to pick up on anything wrong at Financial Resources Mortgage, which engaged in large-scale fraud and then collapsed.

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin hasn’t wasted any time on the fundraising front. He’s raised $410K already since declaring his candidacy last month, which may not initially seem like much but will go a long way in the cheap markets in West Virginia. Likely GOP opponent John Raese has raised only $30K, although he’s also poured $320K of his own money into the race.

• IA-Gov, IA-Sen: Local GOP blog The Iowa Republican commissioned some polls of Iowa through Voter/Consumer Research. In a non-surprise, the Republicans are leading. Terry Branstad leads Chet Culver 53-35 in the gubernatorial race and Chuck Grassley leads Roxanne Conlin 59-33 in the Senate race. (Down the ballot, though, things look OK for Dems in the AG, Treasurer, and Supreme Court races.)

• OH-Gov: This goes in the “nice work if you can get it” file. In further evidence of the high-dollar revolving door between politics and academia, there are more details out on John Kasich’s rich-guy sinecure at Ohio State University over the last decade. For instance, during 2008 he made $50K from OSU, but worked about four hours a month there, essentially making $4,000 for each visit to campus.

• PA-Gov: While the Dems got good news yesterday in the Senate race in Pennsylvania with the dropout of the Green Party candidate, they got bad news in the gubernatorial race today with the dropout of John Krupa. Krupa was running as the Tea Party candidate, but had to pull the plug after a GOP petition challenge left him with too few signatures.

• AZ-03: It looks like Ben Quayle’s week or two in the sun is pretty much over after a one-two punch of salacious website revelations and his own incompetent TV ad; conventional wisdom is treating him as having plunged out of front-runner status in the GOP primary in the open seat 3rd. Self-funding businessman Steve Moak seems to have that role now, followed by underfunded but better-known state Sen. Jim Waring. (The article alludes to polling, but irritatingly doesn’t offer any specifics.)

• FL-17: The Miami Herald offers interesting profiles of all nine Democrats competing in the primary to replace retiring Rep. Kendrick Meek. This dark-blue seat may be, of all the nation’s open seats, the one we’re most starved for information about, so it remains to be seen whether we can get an upgrade from Meek (who voted with an eye always toward his next promotion) in this seat.

• New York: Wow, there’s a serious race to the bottom going on among the New York House delegation, with regards to Cordoba House: Mike McMahon, Tim Bishop, and even non-endangered Steve Israel all offered statements saying they should look elsewhere to build. This is playing out most interestingly in NY-24, where Richard Hanna — one of the few conspicuously moderate Republicans on the front lines this year — offered support for the project last week. Then Dem Mike Arcuri came out in opposition… and Hanna, realized he was getting outflanked on the right, did a 180 and is now against it too. While it’s nice to see a GOPer getting caught in such a transparent and ad-worthy flip-flop, is this the kind of high-ground-ceding way we want to do it?

• NRCC: Everyone seems abuzz that the NRCC is out with its list of 40 targeted districts today and its plan to spend $22 million (more than their current $17 mil CoH). It’s worth noting, though, that unlike the DCCC’s $49 mil list of 60 districts from July, these aren’t even reservations (which require deposits – or a willingness to seriously piss off television stations if you try to cancel), only a telegraphing of their plans, so things may change. (They may also roll out more in two steps, as did the DCCC.) Most of the buzzing is about what got left out. (Where are the defenses in LA-02 and HI-01? There’s a grand total of one defensive buy: the open seat in IL-10.) National Journal also has an interesting analysis of the method behind the NRCC’s madness, noticing that they’re playing Moneyball, focusing on the cheaper media markets and letting some of the more expensive East Coast markets slide.

• Ads: Lots of ad miscellany today, starting with big buys from Karl Rove-linked GOP group American Crossroads, which is spending $425K on an anti-Michael Bennet piece in CO-Sen, and $500K on a pro-Rob Portman (doesn’t he have his own money?) spot in OH-Sen. Dina Titus and Betsy Markey, freshman Dems in tough defenses in NV-03 and CO-04, are both on the air with new spots with a similar strategy: go negative on TARP (they’re inoculated from it, not having been in Congress in the previous cycle). Finally, Scott Murphy is dipping into his huge cash stash with his first ad in NY-20, a feel-good piece featuring his enormous family that (like Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s ad) traffics in the metaphor that Washington sometimes eats too much (although luckily this ad doesn’t show anyone pooping).

• Rasmussen:

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 45%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 37%, Pat Toomey (R) 46%

PPP (pdf) (8/14-16, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 36 (41)

Pat Toomey (R): 45 (41)

Undecided: 20 (18)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP gave us some advance warning yesterday that this would be the time when they switched to a likely voter model (from their earlier hybrid model, which was lightly screened but more like a registered voter model), and that the switchover would be turbulent for some Dems. This race is the one they were primarily talking about: the switch drops Joe Sestak from a tie to a 9-point deficit against Pat Toomey.

One of the most eye-catching numbers here is that PPP finds a voter universe that went by 1 point for John McCain in 2008 (a marked contrast to Barack Obama’s 10-point victory), but they also point out that their last sample in June was also +1 for McCain. Instead, it’s one that has fewer Democrats in it (46 Dem/44 Republican), and one that’s more negatively disposed toward Sestak (28/38, compared with 36/33 for Toomey) and Obama (40/55, with an unusually high falloff in Obama voters who now disapprove of him — that number is usually about 7% nationally, but 15% here in this sample). The one bit of good news here for Dems is that the undecided voters lean Democratic (they went for Obama 52-36), and many of them are likely to gravitate toward Sestak once he’s on the air and garnering more attention. But for now, Sestak has a long way to go to catch back up.

• WA-Sen (Top 2): The billed main event tonight is the Senate primary in Washington, but really, there’s not much to see here, other than for Californians to get a good look at what they just signed themselves up for, with the weirdness that is the Top 2 primary. Polling has indicated that a Patty Murray/Dino Rossi is all but inevitable, with teabaggers Clint Didier and Paul Akers having gotten little traction (although they have successfully forced Rossi to the right, rhetorically). The real question for pollwatchers is what percentage Murray and Rossi get, as some sort of tea leaf for November. Polling would seem to project Murray in the mid-40s and Rossi in the mid-30s, with Didier in the low teens, but there is so much expectations management going on that that any result will be immediately spun as imminent doom/triumph. At any rate, the primary has always been a mediocre predictor of the general (just ask Darcy Burner, who beat Dave Reichert in the 2008 WA-08 primary), and that may be compounded today by mischievous Dems crossing over to try to help the unelectable Didier past Rossi (or else sitting out, as there’s no Dem-on-Dem drama anywhere above the state legislative level).

• WA-03 (Top 2): When a number of solid Dems jumped into this open seat race in the wake of Brian Baird’s retirement announcement, this looked like it had the potential for a true rumble in the jungle (primary). But instead it coalesced into something pretty similar to the Senate race, where we were left with one establishment Democrat left standing, Denny Heck (a former state Rep. from long ago, now a wealthy businessman), and on the other side, one underwhelming establishment Republican (state Rep. Jaime Herrera) and a couple feistier Tea Party types (former Bush-era deputy assistant VA Sec. David Castillo, and David Hedrick, whose main claim to fame is shouting down Baird at a town hall). Which GOPer faces Heck is hard to gauge, without any polling evidence; Herrera has the financial advantage (enough to run ads on cable, unlike Castillo), but Castillo has more local endorsements and seemingly more ground-level enthusiasm. If this turns out close, it may be days before we know which GOPer advances, as Washington results are compiled notoriously slowly — ballots postmarked through today can be counted.

• WY-Gov (D): Dave Freudenthal could have opted to challenge term limits in court but decided not to, leaving the Blue Team struggling to field a candidate here. State Democratic Party chair Leslie Petersen jumped in, as did former University of Wyoming quarterback Pete Gosar. and three Some Dudes. No one’s really paid much attention to this primary, given that whoever wins will be considered quite the long shot against whoever the Republican nominee turns out to be. The last (and only?) poll of this race had Petersen leading Gosar 30-22, with undecideds through the roof. Can you really blame the undecided 48% of Wyoming Dems though? (JMD)

• WY-Gov (R): Seven GOPers have jumped into the race, perhaps sensing an opportunity. Four of them exceed the “Some Dude” threshold, namely state Auditor Rita Meyer, former US Attorney Matt Mead, state House speaker (and son of former US Senator Alan) Colin Simpson, and state Agriculture Director Ron Micheli. Sarah Palin’s gotten her grubby Grizzly paws in this race, endorsing Meyer; George H.W. Bush countered with an endorsement of Simpson. The same Mason-Dixon poll had Meyer leading Mead 27-24, with Simpson at 17 and Micheli at 12. No runoffs here, so whoever pulls the plurality tonight will be the nominee. (JMD)

• CA-SD15 (special general): Abel Maldonado vacated this Central Coast state Senate seat months ago after he was confirmed as Lieutenant Governor, but no one got 50% in the special primary, so we’re doing it again! Republican state Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee of San Luis Obispo fell just a tad short of clearing the 50%+1 barrier last time, scoring 49.4% to Democratic teacher John Laird’s 41.8%, with two independents of different parties getting the rest. The frustrating (or humorous) part in all of this is that we get to do this four person dance all over again, since the top finisher of each party moves on from the primary to the general! Given that Blakeslee came so close last time, it’s hard to imagine what’s shifted in the last eight weeks that Laird can pull this out and put the CA Senate Dems one closer to the magic 2/3rds mark. The wildcard, as always in special elections, is low turnout, but given how the enthusiasm gap has been, we can probably get around to anticipating what arcana the special election for Blakeslee’s Assembly seat will bring. (JMD)

Polls close at 9 pm ET (7 pm MT) in Wyoming, and 11 pm ET (8 pm PT) in Washington.

If you have predictions, please feel free to share them in the comments.