Tag: House

Well, this one certainly is coming as a surprise.  The NY Daily News reports that veteran Democratic Rep. Mike McNulty of New York will announce his retirement soon:

Several well-placed sources confirm that Rep. Mike McNulty, a veteran Democrat from the 21st DC, is poised to announce he will not seek re-election next year – a move that will likely touch off a heated primary battle. […]

McNulty’s spokeswoman refused to confirm or deny the congressman’s plans, but did say he is scheduled to make an announcement about his future on Monday at the Crowne Plaza in Albany.

Among those mentioned as possible contenders for the seat, which is located in a Democratic district and very unlikely to change hands: Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings, Assemblyman Ron Canestrari and Schenectady Mayor Brian Stratton, whose father, Samuel Stratton, held the seat until he withdrew from the race due to health issues.

If true, McNulty would be only the third Democrat to announce his retirement from the House next year — and the only one so far who is doing so without seeking to move on to a statewide office.

McNulty’s district is pretty safe territory for Democrats, with a PVI of D+8.7.  Kerry won it by 12 points in 2004, and Gore by 17 points in ’00.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Race Tracker: NY-21

UPDATE (David): McNulty made it official on Monday.

Now that former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is formally in the race against Jack Abramoff’s golfing pal, Rep. Tom Feeney of Florida, the DCCC has just released some polling numbers that they commissioned from Garin-Hart-Yang back in July — and the results aren’t pretty for Feeney.  The full polling memo can be viewed here (PDF file).

In a straight head-to-head match-up, here’s how Feeney fares (likely voters, no leaners):

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 42%
Suzanne Kosmas (D): 23%
MoE: ±5.0%

Mr. Feeney is well under that magical “50%” mark against an opponent who only has 19% name recognition in the district, according to the poll (vs. 86% for Feeney).  Additionally, the poll finds that Feeney has a net negative job approval (46% fair/poor; 36% excellent/good).

After hearing a brief positive bio for each candidate, Feeney leads Kosmas by a 45%-40% margin.  After informing voters of Feeney’s involvement with convicted felon Jack Abramoff, Kosmas jumps ahead to 45%-37%.  Additionally, 58% “express major doubts after hearing about Feeney’s support for privatizing Social Security”.

And yes — I’m well aware that this kind of a “message testing” poll does not necessarily mean that Feeney is slated to lose the election.  But with the race still in its formative stages, Kosmas has some seriously good material to work with in order to give Feeney a major challenge.  I expect this to be a tight race.

Another note from the poll: while Bush won the district by 10% in 2004, on the generic presidential ballot, the Democratic candidate edges the Republican by a 42%-41% margin.

Update: The Politico picks up the poll, too, and gets a hilariously delusional comment from Feeney’s office:

Responding, Feeney’s chief of staff, Tonnie Wybensinger, said, “Feeney has always had a 24 percent unfavorable rating because 25 percent of the district is liberal – not enough to elect Kosmas. Kosmas’ appeal right now is that no one knows who she is and once people do know, that appeal will diminish.”

Tom Feeney: he’s not only out of his league — he’s out of his mind.  I should take this opportunity to note that only 53% of voters knew of Feeney’s Abramoff connections, according to the poll.  Can’t wait for some more “voter education” here.

Now that a Senate bid appears to be off the table for Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), Roll Call reports that the congressman might throw in the towel completely in an announcement that could come as soon as Thursday:

Published reports Monday night indicated that Davis is rethinking his long-awaited Senate bid, and Congressional sources said Tuesday that a run for re-election also may be off the table for the seven-term Congressman. […]

Now some knowledgeable sources on Capitol Hill are saying that if he’s not moving up then Davis likely will be moving out, regardless of the fact that he would be a strong favorite for an eighth term in 2008.

Davis admitted earlier this year that he considered retiring before the 2006 election. He said he decided to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate in the previous cycle would have enabled Democrats to pick up his Northern Virginia seat.

A Davis retirement would open up a district that’s been trending hard in the Democratic direction over the past decade.  Al Gore lost the 11th district by a 7 point margin in 2000, but Bush squeaked by Kerry by a single point in ’04.  In recent statewide victories for Democrats, the 11th has voted strongly for Warner, Kaine and Webb.

If Davis wants to challenge Sen. Webb in 2012, a retirement would make little sense — especially if he traded in his current job for a plum gig as a DC lobbyist, as some are speculating.  But perhaps Davis just wants to cash in while he still can.

Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shares a new poll with the Swing State Project that tests the candidates on both sides of the aisle in Alaska’s at-large US House race next year.

The poll, conducted over “this last weekend” (10/19-10/21), shows Don Young with some very lackluster numbers in the Republican primary for a guy with three and a half decades of incumbency:

Don Young (R-inc): 61%
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 33%
Undecided: 5%
(n=238)

If Young is losing that much of the Republican base against a low-profile candidate (LeDoux is a state Rep and former Democrat), you know that things aren’t looking so hot for the scandal-plagued incumbent.

Among potential Democratic primary voters, former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz holds an early edge:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 45%
Diane Benson (D): 19%
Jake Metcalfe (D): 14%
(n=328)

The poll also shows that Berkowitz has nearly 80% name recognition in the state, while Benson has 66% and Metcalfe 65%.  If that seems slightly high, remember that Benson was the ’06 nominee while Metcalfe has already begun airing campaign commercials — and that this is a pretty small state with a cheaper-than-average media market.

Is it retirement time for GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin?  In a lengthy article dealing with her personal troubles and recent tragedies (and they are significant), Cubin says that she’ll make a re-election decision and announcement very soon:

Cubin, who turns 61 in November, told the Associated Press recently that she plans to run for re-election. But on Thursday she said only that she will make a decision and announcement in the next few weeks.

“I just need to make the announcement at a time that is right,” she said. “Certainly whatever I decide to do there are people I need to notify first before it is in the media – staff, family, all those kind of things.”

I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine Cubin deciding to give 2008 another go.  That’s going to be bad news for Democrat Gary Trauner, but I suppose you never know what kind of Bill Sali-esque goon might emerge from the bowels of the Wyoming Republican Party, leaving a ray of hope in one of the reddest states in the nation.

Over the weekend, AFSCME and the New House PAC hosted a national candidate training camp in Chicago, with the blessing of the DCCC.  Martin Heinrich, a Democrat gunning for the open seat of Heather Wilson (R-NM), described the event thusly:

They invited the top challengers from around the nation and put us through the paces with two days of intense coaching on management, message, money and mobilization. I’ve been through a lot of political trainings, but this was in a class by itself. It was especially helpful to get to know some of the freshmen Congressmen like Ed Perlmutter who ran and won in Republican leaning districts.

In addition to being a great learning experience the conference also gave me great hope. This year’s challengers are an amazing crop of candidates. They all had impeccable credentials and the fire in the belly to win. By the end of the weekend they all had an impressively polished message as well.

I’m not so much interested in the concerns of some that the DCCC may be playing sides in a few primary battles through its involvement in the camp, but I am interested in seeing just who this coalition of national Democrats believes are worthy enough for the special treatment.  Heinrich, writing on his blog, leaks the attendees:

John Adler (NJ-03), Kay Barnes (MO-06), John Boccieri (OH-16), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Darcy Burner (WA-08), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Joan Fitz-Gerald (CO-02), Bill Foster (IL-14), Larry Grant (ID-01), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Jim Himes (CT-04), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Bill Kennedy (MT-AL), Bob Lord (AZ-03), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Eric Massa (NY-29), Bill McCamley (NM-02), Bill O’Neill (OH-14), Gary Peters (MI-09), Jon Powers (NY-26), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Dan Seals (IL-10), Ron Shepston (CA-42), John Unger (WV-02), Dick Versace (IL-18).

Certainly an interesting list — with a surprise or two, like Ron Shepston, a candidate who quite literally emerged from the DailyKos user rolls and is running in a deeply red (R+10.2) district.

Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle–and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in ’00 and Bush in ’04 by the slimmest of margins).  Let’s take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:

February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Nat’l Dems “are aggressively working to recruit someone to run” for Rep. Bill Young’s (R) seat, “pegging it as one of their top targets.” A DCCC recruiter “recently met with prospective” Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). […] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: “I’d be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him.”

February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Dems “sounded the opening bell last week,” firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already “is seated squarely in Dems’ sights.” They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young’s alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a “rallying point” for an already packed field of “likely” candidates.  Dems “are courting” state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are “petrified” Young will opt not to run in ’08, which likely would set off a “primary scramble in both parties.”

May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn’t know “how much longer he’ll stay” in Congress.  Young: “Nobody knows because I don’t know.”  But will he retire in ’08?  Young: “Let’s be honest: I’m thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before.” […]

But Young’s uncertainty has left GOPers “worried that he may be serving his last term.”

July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he’s “amassing” a “truckload of money.”  He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is “more than a year away.”  Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, “I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make.”  Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, “the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly” (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).

August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week “talking” with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R).  Justice: “A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it.”  Justice, whose name “is also in the mix” of possible ’09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young “might boost” his name ID if Young “waits awhile to retire.”  Justice: “I don’t get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race.”  If I did it, I would run to win.”

October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.

October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  […] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?

Something is set to break here.

Could the Democratic primary for the right to contest the open seat of Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico get a little more crowded soon?  Heath Haussamen has the goods.

State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, a respected moderate, will announce his intentions on November 4th.  Cervantes could be an interesting candidate with the potential to tap into the sizable Latino vote in the district.  Last week he sounded optimistic about a run:

Cervantes said he is “doing what it takes right now, at this stage, and it would be a great privilege to represent the district. I think the country clearly is looking for change and I’ve worked for seven years in a legislative body doing the same thing in Santa Fe.”

Cervantes would join ’06 nominee Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague in the Democratic primary.

While this R+5.7 district doesn’t sit at the top of the list of Democratic pick-up opportunities this cycle, it’s worth mentioning that the NRCC was trying their best to prevent Pearce from giving Democrats another open seat opportunity here.  An anonymous national GOP official quoted by Haussamen summed up the situation for prospective local Republican candidates in the district:

“Somebody’s going to have to sink or swim in that district,” the official said. “Somebody’s going to have to do that on their own.”

Sounds like another opportunity for Democrats to test the limits of the cash-strapped NRCC.

Race Tracker: NM-02

Greg Goode, a Republican challenger to freshman Democrat Brad Ellsworth, stepped down from his job at Indiana State University today in order to meet voters and explore the district he’s running in:

Goode announced his candidacy for the 8th District Congress on Aug. 1. He has since then gained the support from the 8th District Republican Committee and plans on devoting his time and attention to the campaign and election.

“My goals are to criss-cross the 15 counties that make up the Indiana 8th Congressional District,” Goode said. “I will be doing that for the next one year and one month of my life. This is a big district geographically speaking. It is one the largest districts in Indiana and it is going to take a lot of time. That’s why we announce this early.” (Emphasis added)

That sounds very nice… until you realize that Indiana’s 8th district has 18 counties.

I wonder which three counties Goode plans to ignore?

(H/T to the indispensable Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-08

In response to Garrett’s shameful vote to not override President Bush’s SCHIP veto, NJ-5’s Democratic challenger Dennis Shulman has called on the ideologue to get his priorities straight.

As Shulman points out, “We need to get our fiscal house in order, but our children don’t need to be the ones left behind by Garrett’s last minute scramble to clean up his fiscal mess.”

Even more troubling, but no less surprising, is the fact the Garret seems to not have bothered to even read the SCHIP legislation he so self-righteously condemned. Fortunately, Matthew Fretz did bother to read it and, point-by-point, systematically exposes the unbridgeable gap between Garrett’s words and that pesky little thing called reality.

In other news, Shulman’s campaign continues to gain momentum. Check out this recent article on the blind rabbi in the Jewish Standad.