Tag: House

Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell: 

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.  “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.”  Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win.  Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit.  We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him. 

Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.

(From the diaries. What’s your take? – promoted by James L.)

As we all watched in amazement last year, the Blue Wave in 2006 was so strong Republicans almost lost House districts in Wyoming and Idaho – two of the most conservative districts in the country (only 10-20 districts gave Bush a higher percentage of the vote in 2000 or 2004).  Not one Democratic seat was lost.

It couldn’t get better than that, could it?

Could it?

As the latest Democracy Corps memo puts it, “If Americans have ever been angrier with the state of the country, we have not witnessed it…”  And that anger is directed mostly at Republicans. 

Now, the numbers – first up, the Master Indicator – the Generic Ballot question.  The graph show the net Democratic advantage:

Click to enlarge.

Join me on the flip for a fourteen ways to look at the 2008 House races – and, in some cases, the mood of the country in general. 

Cross-posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Note: If I haven’t linked to polling data directly, you can find it at pollingreport.com. Unless I forgot to put in the link. 

The Vote

1.  Generic Ballot (+)  (The plus sign means an improvement from 2006 for Democrats)
The generic ballot question really has done a great job predicting the actual nationwide vote in congressional elections recently, when the results of all polls are averaged together.  The actual Democratic advantage has ended up about 3-4 points less than what the polls say in the final week for the past four elections in the Bush era.  So far, despite increasing unhappiness with Congress, Democrats continue to have a stunning advantage on the generic ballot. 

2. Battleground Districts (+)
Democracy Corps has once again been busy polling the House races in key areas of the country.  The Mountain West favors Democrats slightly more than they did in 2006, but the amazing numbers are in the 35 most vulnerable Republican districts.  Their poll numbers are lousy.  No wonder so many have decided to retire (more on that later).  The 35 most vulnerable House Democrats, on the other hand, are not so vulnerable at all, polling well ahead of generic Republicans (55 to 37). 

Party preference in key districts. Click to enlarge.

The Parties and Approval

3.  Bush Approval (+)
Bush’s approval continues on a downward trajectory, overall, and he is making sure Republicans go down with him.  In 2006 Bush’s approval was related to Republicans’ performance in House elections; there’s no guarantee for 2008, but lower approval ratings for Bush are worse for Republicans than higher approval ratings.  Note the map below for districts is from July 2007, when Bush’s approval was a few points lower than today.  (An archive of old approval ratings maps is now available on dKosopedia.)

Bush’s approval by state (10/07) and district (7/07).  Click to enlarge.

4.  Party Approval (-)
The Republican brand is trashed.  Democrats have a net approval that is less than November 2006, but still positive, and not unusually low.  Republicans remain way, way in the negative.

Net favorability of Democrats and Republicans.  Click to enlarge.

5.  Congressional Approval (=)
Nobody likes Congress, we’ve heard, but people like Congressional Republicans a fair amount less than they like Congressional Democrats.  According to ABC/Washington Post polls, people are most likely to blame Bush and the Republicans for blocking Democrats from doing what the people elected them to do.  The difference between the parties’ approval is still about the same as last year.

Approval of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and who is to blame for Congress not getting things done.  Click to enlarge.

6.  Party ID (+)
Republicans and Democrats are at about the same levels as 2006 according to Rasmussen, but when you include Independents who lean towards Democrats, Pew shows the leftward shift continuing into this year.

Two measures of partisan identification.  Click to enlarge.

The Issues

7.  Party Trust (+)
The public continues to swing to the Democratic side of issues, part of a longer-term trend.  Republicans used to be the party of Fiscal Discipline, but last July, an NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats have advantages on Reducing the Deficit (+25), Controlling Government Spending (+16), and Taxes (+9).  Well, so they’re left with God, Guns, and Gays, right?  No…. Rasmussen asked about Abortion (+7 average this year), and Newsweek about Guns (+2) and Same-Sex Marriage (+8).  And White Evangelical Christians are abandoning the party in droves – some to become Democrats, but mainly to become Independents or apolitical.  Then what about Terra, Terra, Terra, 9/11?  Still no…at best, Republicans come out even on questions about National Security and the so-called War on Terror.  On the issues voters claim are most important to them, Democrats have increased their advantage since 2006, and two issues that are among the most favorable for Democrats (health care and the economy) have gained prominence.  There is one sour note in this symphony: a decrease in the Democratic advantage when it comes to corruption and ethics in government.

Democratic advantage on key issues and importance of key issues in recent elections.  Click to enlarge.

8.  Iraq (+)
The public continues to think the war in Iraq simply isn’t worth it, to a greater extent than a year ago, although opinion was more pessimistic mid-year.  More and more people also think the number of troops should be decreased.

Opinion on whether Iraq is worth it and troop withdrawal.  Click to enlarge.

9.  The Economy (+)
As we saw above, the public trusts Democrats much more on the economy, and the economy is coming to the fore in terms of important issues this election season.  People think things aren’t very good and they’re getting worse, despite all the rosy numbers the Bush administration keeps putting out.  And when the Republicans try to talk up the economy, it really pisses people off (see Page 7.)  One reason, of course, is because Real People actually buy things like milk and gas, and the prices keep going up while wages are not.  Over Bush’s presidency, gas has been increasing at 13% per year (log plot here), while wages have been increasing at about 3% per year.  Up until about 2004, the public perception of the economy’s future seemed to be tied strongly to the stock market; after that, it appears gas prices are key.  For more and a much better analysis, see How to hide a recession.

Public perception on the current state of the economy, direction of the economy, milk and gas prices, and how gas and the Dow influence public opinion.  Click to enlarge.

10.  Health Care (+)
Health care availability and cost are both increasing problems, and surely related to perceptions of the economy.  The percentage of Americans without insurance has been rising steadily through the Bush presidency, and the number now stands at 47 million. Those who have health care plans through work have seen premiums almost double, while benefits dwindle and copays multiply.

Percent of Americans who are uninsured and premium prices.  Click to enlarge.

The Campaigning

11.  Fundraising (+)
Any way you slice it, Congressional Democrats and Democratic challengers are beating the pants of the Republicans in the money race.  The bad news is where a lot of this money is coming from.  The new members of Congress are raising a ton of cash, and Republican challengers are not.  Data for the first six months of 2007 and previous years are available from the FEC.

Total and median funds for incumbents, median funds for challengers, and number of challengers.  Click to enlarge.

12.  Recruitment (+)
As BENAWU has tirelessly documented, there are more districts with Democrats running now than at this time in 2005.  Part of this, of course, is that we started out with a few extra seats in the House filled with incumbents!  Nonetheless, Democrats are having a great recruitment season.

Number of districts with Democrats running, and district status as of mid-October.  Click to enlarge.

13.  Retirement (+)
Democrats are keeping their behinds tightly plastered to their seats and Republicans are fleeing for the exits, as covered by many of Steve Singiser’s diaries.  The Cook Political Report has tracked retirements over the past few cycles, and based on the numbers, it looks like we can expect another wave of Republican retirements in the new year, possible making it up to 30.  Democrats, on the other hand, have far fewer retirements or even potential retirements compared to the 2004 or 2006 cycles. 

Republican and Democratic retirements, and Republican and Democratic potential retirements.  Click to enlarge.

14.  Coattails (-)
In 2006, we had no national Democrat for Republicans to run against in House races.  In 2008, we will, and whoever it is will have high negatives after the right-wing slime machine is done with them. 

The good news is, right now, 74% believe that Clinton will be the nominee, and her most recent NBC/WSJ ‘very negative’ ratings were 26%.  No, really – this is good news, because it means the current excellent Generic Ballot numbers (which recently have had a good relationship with the actual vote) must therefore already have substantial negative coattails built in.  We still should assume the effect will increase.  Below are Kerry’s numbers from 2004 and the generic ballot numbers (note that approval of Democrats in general was also falling at the end of the campaign).

Kerry’s disapproval and the generic ballot, 2004.  Click to enlarge.

Summary:

Out of 14 factors, there are only two that are worse now compared to the 2006 cycle.  The generic ballot favors Democrats to an amazing extent.  This will be affected by local campaigns, of course, and here the Democrats are also excelling, with outstanding fundraising, recruiting, and retention.  Broader factors such as the economy and presidential approval ratings are also trending towards Democrats.  The public trusts Democrats more, and approves of Democrats more, even as they are unsatisfied with what Congress is doing.  As of now, Democrats are in an excellent position for the 2008 elections, despite the shortcomings of Democratic leaders over the past year. 

In a recent Roll Call article on the DCCC’s strategy to turn the GOP’s black-hearted support of President Bush’s S-CHIP veto into some serious November Pain for rank-and-file House Republicans, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen let slip some rough polling numbers for S-CHIP hater Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI).  Knollenberg has an A-list challenger in former state Sen. Gary Peters.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the DCCC (likely voters, 10/31-11/02):

Gary Peters (D): 35
Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.8%)

While the exact trendlines are not available, Knollenberg’s 7-point lead is down from a 12-point lead in April.  He’s also well under the magic 50%
mark, well before the campaign has even been engaged.  Not good news for Team Red.

And in a sign of S-CHIP’s salience, Knollenberg is very vulnerable on the issue:

Knollenberg’s 7-point lead turned into a 7-point deficit after respondents were read both a push question characterizing his position on SCHIP, and the Democratic and Republican arguments for and against the program.

This one’s going to be fun.

How did you use your extra hour today?  I’m going to use mine right here by rounding up various House race flotsam and jetsam from the past several days.

• FL-10: Bring ’em to Justice?  At a recent Young Democrats breakfast in Florida, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced that State Senator Charlie Justice (D), the man whose name is most often mentioned as a potential opponent for crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young, may have “big news” to announce soon. 

  When pressed for comment, Justice told the St. Petersburg Times that: “If [Young] retires, the seat hasn’t been open in 40 years, everyone should take a good look at it.  Am I looking at it? Absolutely.  Does that mean 100 percent that I’m going to run?  No, but it’s pretty darn close.”
  

  The Times keeps hearing rumors that Young will step down and that his wife will run in his place.  With a PVI of D+1, this would be one of the hottest takeover opportunities for Democrats next year.  I don’t have their sources, but by reading the tea leaves, I suspect that Young will have some “big news” of his own to share soon.
  

• AK-AL: Speaking of crumb-bums named Young, the Defenders of Wildlife are up on the airwaves in Alaska, hitting scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young (R) hard.  Let’s hope we can make a Pombo out of Young.

• NC-09: Remember Harry Taylor, the man who shocked a Republican-friendly audience when he told President Bush, face-to-face at a PR event, that “I would hope from time to time that you have the humility and the grace to be ashamed of yourself”?
  

  Well, he’s now running for Congress against Rep. Sue Myrick (R).  I welcome the courage that Taylor will bring to this R+12.2 district.

• IN-07: With Democratic Rep. Julia Carson’s health concerns continuing to affect her House attendance (she’s on medical leave until December 15), it looks like Republicans are trying to tap into their minimal bench in Indianapolis in order to pounce on the opportunity.  In the 11/5 issue of Indiana Daily Insight (subscription required), it is reported that freshman state Rep. Jon Elrod (R) is “seriously considering” a bid against her.  Blue Indiana has more on Elrod, and welcomes the opportunity that his open legislative seat could bring.  Could Elrod scare Carson into a retirement?  Without one, this heavily Democratic seat (with a PVI of D+8.7) won’t be safe.

• WY-AL: If Barbara Cubin is planning on running again, she’ll be facing a crowded primary.  Retired Naval officer Bill Winney, who mounted an underfunded long-shot primary challenge to Cubin in 2006 and walked away from it with 40% of the vote, is running again.  However, Winney wouldn’t be the only challenger on the ballot: Swede Nelson, a motivational speaker and teacher, is also running, and state Rep. Colin Simpson said earlier in the year that he planned on challenging Cubin for the nomination if she ran again. 

  If Cubin decides to run again, her only chance of survival is having the anti-incumbent vote split between several different options.  Her stock has sunk so low, that I would bet that she’d be in danger of losing a head-to-head match up against even an unknown like Winney.  Sadly for us, I strongly suspect that Cubin will hang up her spurs and broomstick.

UPDATE (David):

• MD-04: The netroots fundraiser for Donna Edwards has been a huge success so far. We’ve blasted past our intial goal of 4,000 total donors to Donna (we’re at 4,250, in fact). We’ve also raised around $75,000 so far. We’re hoping to hit an even $100,000, so if you can help make it happen, please do so.
• Illinois: The filing deadline in the Praire State is tomorrow, Nov. 5th. Illinois has the first Congressional primaries in the nation, on Feb. 5th, so it’s no surprise that their filing deadline is so soon. Diarist benawu informs us that IL Dems look to be fielding challengers in all districts except the 15th. We’ll know the final shape of our field tomorrow.

Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) has been the talk of retirment rumors following his decision not to run for the US Senate. Those rumors were reinforced today by news that Davis poured $400,000 of his available $1M COH into the hard-fought re-election campaign of his wife, State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis.

“He already said he is not running for the U.S. Senate next year, and there’s been a lot of speculation he is going to retire from the House,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “This is going to get the rumor mill going even more that he isn’t going to run again and will not need that money. On the other hand, he is supporting his wife, who is a moderate Republican like him.”

Considering that his district scores a PVI of R+0.6, it certainly seems like Davis is tossing aside much needed cash if he's planning on running for re-electiton.

With confirmed Democratic candidates in (351) house districts, it’s again time to see how we are going state by state.

Below the fold to see the good news as well as some potential concerns.

And go take a look at the fantastic 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Alabama – 5/7 filled
The 2nd and 6th both need candidates. The 6th is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006 and it wasn’t contested in 2004 either. There are rumoured candidates in the 2nd but ominous silence from the 6th.
AL-02 – R+13,
AL-06 – R+25,

Alaska – FULL SLATE

Arizona – FULL SLATE

Arkansas – FULL SLATE

California – 47/53 filled
Well 6 races is a few to find candidates for but this is California and all of the currently uncontested districts had candidates in 2006.

The districts are all over the state and I guess at this stage we should watch this space.
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,

Colorado – 5/7 filled
The 5th and 6th both need candidates with both 2006 candidates unlikely to run again. Despite the focus on the open senate race I expect the Colorado Dems to find candidates for both these districts so as to boost turnout for the senate race.
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,

Connecticut – FULL SLATE

Delaware – FULL SLATE

Florida – 19/25 filled
6 Races to fill. It is a little early to be too concerned, particularly given the attention being paid to the 13th. None the less it would be good to see a few of these fill soon.
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,

Georgia – 9/13 filled
Travelling OK in Georgia vis a vis house candidates. 4 more to fill, all with rumoured candidates.
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,

Hawaii – FULL SLATE

Idaho – 1/2 filled
Well Idaho 2 is unlikely to be even remotely competitive unless it becomes an open race, which is unlikely also.
Sure we will find a candidate here in the time remaining.
68% Bush district in 2004.
ID-02 – R+19,

Illinois – 18/19 filled
Only one race to fill well done Illinois Dems
IL-15 – R+6,

Indiana – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and certainly a candidate will step up.
IN-05 – R+20,

Iowa – FULL SLATE

Kansas – 3/4 filled
Early days yet and we only need to fill one race. Wait and see.
KS-01 – R+20,

Kentucky – 2/6 filled
With a competitive gubernatorial race coming in November it is no great surprise that 3/4 of the GOP incumbents do not have declared opponents. Wait until after November.
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-05 – R+8,

Louisiana – 3/7 filled
See Kentucky – however the precarious state of the Louisiana Democrats does not bode well. Also the 6th is one of the uncontested 10 districts from 2006.
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,

Maine – FULL SLATE

Maryland – FULL SLATE

Massachusetts – FULL SLATE

Michigan – 10/15 filled
A couple of recent candidate declarations make Michigan less of a concern but it would be nice to see some more candidates in this state.
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,

Minnesota – FULL SLATE

Mississippi – 2/4 filled
Only 2 districts to fill which I assume democrats will turn their minds to filling after this years elections. Note that the Open 3rd was not contested by us in 2006 or 2004.
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,

Missouri – 6/9 filled
2 GOP districts filled and 3 to go. With the focus on the gubernatorial contest in 08 expect the Missouri Dems to find candidates for all 3 districts.
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,

Montana – FULL SLATE

Nebraska – 0/3 filled
all 3 districts to fill with Kleeb likely to run again in the 3rd and Esch likely to run again in the 2nd. No problems here at this stage.
NE-01 – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,

Nevada – 2/3 filled
Only 1 district to fill should happen soon hopefully.
NV-02 – R+8.2,

New Hampshire – FULL SLATE

New Jersey – 12/13
We are doing surprisingly well in New Jersey this cycle. Months to go and state legislative elections in november and we still have filled 5/6 of the GOP districts with challengers. The other will no doubt fill after November (Van Drew is my bet).
NJ-02 – D+4.0,

New Mexico – FULL SLATE

New York – 28/29 filled
Only 1 more to fill here. Expect an announcement soon.
NY-03 – D+2.1,

North Carolina – FULL SLATE

North Dakota – FULL SLATE

Ohio – 14/18 filled
4 Races to fill, not bad considering, be nice to fill these quickly.
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,

Oklahoma – 2/5 filled
Only one of the GOP incumbents opposed at this stage not a good sign at all. Oklahoma being as red as it is this is one to be concerned about IMHO.
OK-01 – R+13,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,

Oregon – 4/5 filled
The only question is who will step up in the 2nd a 61% bush 2004 district, particularly if the rumours about Waldens retirement are true.
OR-02 – R+11,

Pennsylvania – 16/19 filled
3 races to fill here; 1 with rumoured candidates. The PA Dems will fill these 3 races easily.
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-19 – R+12,

Rhode Island – FULL SLATE

South Carolina – 2/6 filled
None of the GOP incumbents have declared opponents – this is a worry. The state of the SC Dems is probably worse than everywhere else bar Georgia and Louisiana. Hopefully candidates will step up.
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
SC-04 – R+15,

South Dakota – FULL SLATE

Tennessee – 5/9 filled
Another southern state with all GOP incumbents currently unopposed. *sigh* This one too could be a problem. Watch this space.
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TN-07 – R+12,

Texas – 20/32 filled
Well 12 unfilled races says it all. Texas is a perennial concern for house wonks such as myself, largely because it sends more house repubs to congress than any other state (19). Texas also has a very early filing deadline so this is one to be watched. TX-11 was uncontested in 2006. Expect to hear more about this state later in the year.
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,

Utah – 1/3 filled
Well it comes as no shock that we have unfilled races in Utah however there are only two GOP incumbents without declared opponenets so we will wait and see.
UT-01 – R+26,
UT-03 – R+22,

Vermont – FULL SLATE

Virginia – 6/11 filled
Virginia is a little slow out of the blocks. Of concern is the 4th which we did not contest in 2006 or 2004. To be fair however there is both state house and senate elections this november as well as the potential open senate race. Wait and see at this point. On the upside the 6th will be contested for the first time since 2002.
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,

Washington – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
WA-05 – R+7.1,

West Virginia – FULL SLATE

Wisconsin – FULL SLATE

Wyoming – FULL SLATE

So in the main things are looking great on the house candidate front. However a number of states are of concern; Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas in particular. On the upside however 22 states have a full slate and 9 with only 1 race to fill.

Onwards to 435!

Days after Republican glove-smeller Steve Chabot of Ohio again voted against expanding health care for needy kids, President Bush is making sure that no bad deed goes unrewarded with a generous fundraising visit:

U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot is welcoming the president today to the Hyde Park home of Cincinnati Reds owner Bob Castellini for a dinner-time fund-raiser for the seven-term congressman.

Just how much money Chabot expects to raise is unclear. Chabot said Sunday that he “really doesn’t know.”

“It certainly will be helpful to the campaign,” he said. “How helpful remains to be seen.”

Tickets for the event, which has been in the planning stages for “a few months,” Chabot said, start at $1,500 per person. Those who want a personal meeting with the president pay $10,000 a couple, which “a small number of people” will do. Any amount raised over the legal limit of $2,300 per person will be given to the National Republican Congressional Campaign, Chabot said.

“I’m very pleased to have (the president) coming. It will be very helpful to the campaign,” he said. “It’s also always good for the community to have the high visibility of a president coming.”

The OHDP is on message:

Chabot faces state Rep. Steve Driehaus, a Democrat from Price Hill. The fundraiser comes a little more than a week after Chabot voted to uphold the president’s veto of the children’s health insurance program.

It’s a detail that didn’t escape the attention of the Ohio Democratic Party.

“Apparently, loyalty to Bush beats loyalty to children and Chabot is getting his payoff for dutifully playing Bush’s puppet,” Chairman Chris Redfern said.

In fact, Driehaus has a rally scheduled for this afternoon to highlight Bush’s ties to Chabot – and, with a backdrop of children, highlight Chabot’s vote on the children’s health insurance program.

More from Driehaus here.  With votes this bad, Chabot is going to need every penny in order to pre-emptively nuke his competition.

The Enquirer also picks up another fun nugget: while the fundraiser was actually held in the district of perennially embattled Rep. Jean “Globetrotter” Schmidt, she wasn’t invited to the event!  Ouch!

Time to add another incumbent to the big board of House retirements.  This edition: immigration crusader Tom Tancredo:

Rep. Tom Tancredo plans to leave the U.S. House of Representatives at the end of 2008, whether his longshot presidential bid is successful or not, the Rocky Mountain News reported.

“It’s the fact that I really believe I have done all I can do in the House, especially about the issue about which I care greatly (immigration),” Tancredo, 61, told the newspaper Sunday night.

This is an especially tough district for Democrats: with a PVI of R+10, it voted for Bush over Kerry by a 60-39 margin in 2004.  Still, stranger things have happened.  In 2006, the race for Colorado’s 5th district, a highly conservative area with a PVI of R+15.7 (66/33 Bush/Kerry) became a contentious race when the Club For Growth dragged unpopular state Rep. Doug Lamborn across the finish line to win a nasty Republican primary.  While that race ultimately wasn’t that close (Lamborn won with 59%), Democrat Jay Fawcett performed eight points higher than Kerry’s level.

In short: in order to have an outside chance here, Democrats should be hoping that the GOP nominates an especially ugly fundy wingnut here after a brutal primary.  On second thought, I don’t see how you can get much more wingnutty than Tancredo, so maybe all this is moot…

Race Tracker: CO-06

Well 4 more districts now have candidates:
FL-12 – R+5,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
TX-32 – R+11,
Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

351 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 118 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 118
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 59

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-21 – R+6,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 22 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, VA-06, and WI-06; 5 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Former New Mexico AG and 2006 candidate against GOP Rep. Heather Wilson made it official today — she won’t be seeking another bid:

Madrid notified the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other groups today that she won’t run.

“I think that this is a Democratic year and I would have been the strongest person in the race, but this is just not the year for me,” Madrid said in a telephone interview.

That’s largely due to the fact that her father, who lives in Las Cruces, is not well.

“I’ve spent quite a number of years away from my family, particularly in my last year in office, and they need me and I need them,” she said.

Despite the fear that an open seat race might crowd the Democratic primary, former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich looks to be in a good position, with several potential challengers taking a pass on the race.