Tag: House

It’s official:

First-term state Rep. Jon Elrod will announce Thursday that he’ll run for U.S. Rep. Julia Carson’s 7th District congressional seat next year, his spokesman said.

Elrod, an Indianapolis Republican who defeated incumbent Ed Mahern in state representative district 97 last year, will make Thursday’s announcement at noon, his spokesman said.

Elrod confirmed to 6News he planned to announce something Thursday but declined to say what that would be. However, his spokesman Kyle Kasting said Elrod would announce he is seeking the Republican nomination for the seat held by Carson, a Democrat.

As a frosh state representative, it remains to be seen how formidable Elrod would be in a general election match-up.  However, a state legislator from a Dem-leaning district is a pretty decent recruitment score for the Indiana GOP.

As we’ve said before, this seat is only vulnerable because of Carson’s health issues and her sagging electoral performance as of late.  With a stronger Dem on the ballot — and, I have to presume, the party’s Indianapolis bench must be fairly deep — this district (which gave Kerry 58% of its vote in ’04) should be an easier hold.

One possible scenario is that Carson will retire after the deadline, and allow the nomination to be given to her grandson, newly-elected city councilor André Carson.  I think a primary would be a much healthier option, though.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

The nomination to succeed Rep. Tom Udall is not the only prize that ambitious New Mexico Democrats are competing for this primary season — the nomination to contest the Republican-tilting open seat of Rep. Steve Pearce is drawing plenty of Democratic names.  Here’s the Dem field so far:

Bill McCamley, a Doña Ana County Commissioner who’s been running for most of the year.

Al Kissling, a retired Presbyterian minister and the ’06 nominee.

Harry Teague, a former Lea County Commissioner and oilman, known as a conservative Democrat.  He raked in $175,000 at his first fundraiser and also has the capability (and willingness) to self-fund.

Joseph Cervantes, a state Representative, who announced his candidacy this evening.  Cervantes may have the advantage of being the only Hispanic name on the ballot in the primary.

Frank McKinnon, a businessman from Roswell.

I don’t know any of these candidates well enough to ascertain “electability”, but a few look like credible options.

No doubt about it: at a PVI of R+5.7, this is a pretty red district.  But the cash-strapped NRCC is stressed about the possibility of needing to mount a defense here.  Perhaps one of these Democrats will confirm the GOP’s worst fears.

One wrinkle, though, as mentioned in the diaries by fbihop:

What makes this so interesting is not every candidate will get their names on the ballot.  In fact, at most, four candidates from each party will get their names on the ballot, thanks to a new law enacted by the state legislature this past session.  To get his/her name on a ballot, each candidate must garner the support of 20 percent of convention goers.

From the latest edition of the Almanac of American Politics comes a list of the fastest and slowest-growing Congressional districts in the nation. Keep the following districts and states in mind as we lead up to another round of redistricting in a few years.

Fastest and Slowest-Growing Congressional Districts, 2000-2005

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Growth	District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Growth
AZ-06	Flake	R	R+12.2	36%	OH-11	Tubbs-Jones	D	D+33.1	-9%
AZ-02	Franks	R	R+8.7	34%	MI-13	Kilpatrick	D	D+32.2	-8%
NV-03	Porter	R	D+1.0	32%	IL-09	Schakowsky	D	D+19.7	-8%
FL-05	Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1	27%	PA-14	Doyle	D	D+21.9	-7%
CA-44	Calvert	R	R+6.0	24%	PA-02	Fattah	D	D+39.2	-7%
TX-10	McCaul	R	R+13.0	23%	NY-28	Slaughter	D	D+14.6	-7%
TX-22	Lampson	D	R+14.5	23%	MI-14	Conyers	D	D+33.4	-7%
TX-03	Johnson	R	R+17.1	22%	IL-05	Emanuel	D	D+17.8	-5%
CA-45	Bono	R	R+3.2	22%	CA-08	Pelosi	D	D+36.1	-5%
FL-14	Mack	R	R+10.5	22%	IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	-5%
VA-10	Wolf	R	R+5.3	21%	MA-08	Capuano	D	D+33.0	-5%
FL-25	M. Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4	21%	OH-01	Chabot	R	R+0.5	-5%
CA-11	McNerney	D	R+3.0	20%	CA-53	S. Davis	D	D+12.5	-4%
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	20%	NY-12	Velazquez	D	D+33.9	-4%
FL-07	Mica	R	R+4.1	20%	IL-07	D. Davis	D	D+34.9	-4%
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	19%	SC-06	Clyburn	D	D+11.2	-4%
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10.0	18%	MO-01	Clay	D	D+25.6	-4%
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	18%	MN-05	Ellison	D	D+21.5	-4%
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	18%	AL-07	A. Davis	D	D+16.9	-4%
CA-03	Lungren	R	R+6.7	18%	DC-AL	Holmes-Norton	D	D+40	-4%

(Source: House Race Hotline)

I left a district blank here because it seems that the Hotline made a transcription error — they list CA-12 as one of the slowest-growing CDs, but the incumbent’s name is displayed as Nydia Velazquez (D). The only problem: Nydia represents a district on the other coast, NY-12. Tom Lantos (D), represents CA-12. So I’m not sure which district they meant to place in that slot. UPDATE (David): The House Race Hotline informs us that the correct district is NY-12.

A simplistic analysis of this chart might walk away with the impression that GOP strength is expanding, while Dem-heavy populations in urban districts are shrinking. But the effect of these changes will be determined by whoever is redrawing the district lines. Some of these burgeoning red districts could be made more geographically condensed.

It might also be worth noting that several of the fast-growing red districts bucked the national trend gave a greater share of their vote to John Kerry in 2004 than they did to Al Gore in 2000 (adjusted for ’02 redistricting): TX-03, TX-10, TX-22, VA-10, CO-06, and IL-14.

SSP has quite a few readers with a great deal of knowledge about the redistricting process. I wouldn’t mind hearing your thoughts on this data.

These are the words of the great rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel.

And it is these words, and this man, that have inspired rabbi Dennis Shulman (D) to challenge conservative extremist Scott Garrett (R) in NJ-5 this 2008.

Like his spiritual forefather, Shulman has concluded that he can no longer speak about God and remain silent on Iraq, as well as many of the other pressing and important issues of our times.

To learn more about Dr. Shulman, who is also a practicing psychologist, check out this recent New York Sun profile: Shulman Aims To Be First Blind Rabbi in Congress

Well 3 more districts now have candidates:
CO-06 – R+10,
IL-15 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,

And candidate filing season has started with Illinois filings which closed with us filling all 19 races a great start.

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

354 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 121 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 121
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 55

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
KY-02 – R+12.9,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-21 – R+6,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,
VA-02 – R+5.9,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-25 – R+4,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 12 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, VA-06, and WI-06; 5 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Heath Haussamen, who by now should be a household name among political junkies, again has the goods on Don Wiviott, a developer who had been running a longshot bid for Senate for a good portion of the year:

Wiviott said Udall is a friend, in addition to being his congressman. He will defer to him in the Senate race, but said he plans, in running for Udall’s House seat, to stay in the fight to end the Iraq war, protect the environment and improve the education system.

“You have to have the courage of your convictions. That’s why I started in this. That’s why I remain in it,” Wiviott said. “I’m committed to either raise or spend whatever it takes to win (the House race).”

Wiviott will be joining a potentially crowded field for the nomination for the Dem-leaning seat.  Other names mentioned as possible candidates include Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya, Sheriff Greg Solano, State Auditor Hector Balderas, ex-state Rep. Patsy Trujillo, Espanola Mayor Joseph Maestas, state Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, and New Mexico Highlands Regent Javier Gonzales.

That’s a long list of possibilities.  Whatever the case, the next nominee for this D+5.5 district should be suitably progressive.  While I was never convinced that Wiviott, a political neophyte, had the necessary gravitas for the Senate race, he’ll deserve a long look — along with the other candidates — for the House nomination.

Race Tracker: NM-03

With the mini-flurry of GOP retirements on Friday by Jim Saxton and Babs Cubin, now is as good a time as any to take stock of the open seat situation in the House. There’s been quite a lot of movement since our last installment in October, with the retirements of GOP Reps. Regula, Hobson, Tancredo, and of course Saxton and Cubin. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is joining Heather Wilson in the New Mexico Senate race, opening up both their seats in the House. It also appears that Rep. Tom Udall (D) will join them in the Senate race. In a rare Democratic announcement, we saw the decision of New York Rep. Mike McNulty (D) to retire for health reasons.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Retiring
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Retiring
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Running for President
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
NM-02	Pearce	R	R+5.7	61	Running for Senate
NM-03	Udall	D	D+5.5	60	Running for Senate
NY-21	McNulty	D	D+8.7	61	Retiring
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Retiring
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Retiring

That adds up to a whopping 16 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2005, there were only 12 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. And there is still plenty of time left on the clock for more announcements, possibly from some of the folks listed below…

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
GA-10	Broun	R	R+12.7	61	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Mulling retirement

One deletion from this list was Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA), whose campaign manager e-mailed us the following statement:

It was brought to my attention by our DC staff that you have the Congressman listed as a potential retirement. As the Congressman’s Campaign Manager I can assure you that Congressman McKeon is definitely running for reelection to the 25th CD in California.

Couldn’t be much clearer than that.

Any other retirement rumors flowing through your tubes?

UPDATE: I bet Tom Davis is the next in line to retire. From the WaPo:

He probably won’t run for reelection unless he concludes it is a path to the Senate in 2012, say his associates.

New Jersey political insiders say Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) will announce his retirement as early as this afternoon. With a PVI of D+3, this district should be a top Democratic pick-up opportunity for 2008.

State Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) has been running a strong challenge to Saxton and should be a formidable candidate for the open seat.

UPDATE (David): It's official. 

Roll Call has the scoop: crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young won’t announce his plans until the late spring of next year.

Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) remains quiet on his 2008 re-election plans, confirming Wednesday that any announcement on whether he will seek a 20th term likely will not be made until late next spring. […]

Despite the 76-year-old Congressman’s declaration, strategists in both parties have become increasingly convinced that he will choose to end his Capitol Hill career – potentially jeopardizing another Republican-held House seat. But until he says definitively what he will do, an air of suspended animation hangs over the campaign, with no contenders willing to step forward.

Federal candidates in Florida have until May 2 to register for the state’s Aug. 26 primary.

I bet he heads for the exit and pulls the ripcord.  My advice to state Sen. Charlie Justice, the Democrat most heavily rumored to enter the race if Young retires?  Enter soon and get a head start.  This D+1 seat will be ripe for the picking to a strong campaign.

Rep. Jim Walsh (R) has lost the endorsement of the New York Conservative Party in Monroe and Wayne counties — two of the four counties that make up his district.  Activists in the party are upset over Walsh’s about-face on Iraq (he now favors a withdrawal timeline).  The real wrinkle is this: in 2006, Walsh squeaked by Democrat Dan Maffei by about 3400 votes.  Exactly 11,634 of Walsh’s votes came from the Conservative Party line on the ballot.

If the other county parties and the state party agree, Walsh could lose the Conservative line on the ballot next year.  And if the Conservative Party is serious about it, they could nominate their own candidate who would eat into Walsh’s base.  Of course, that’s a lot of “ifs”.

(H/T: The Albany Project)