Tag: House

The general election contest featured a clear contrast between Jerry McNerney, a wind energy executive vs. Richard Pombo, the zealous defender of oil companies.

  Up until 2006, Pombo was considered invulnerable by political analysts who thought the concept of a liberal Democrat beating a Republican in a largely rural district was absurd. There was one major difference between the 2004 race where Pombo received 61% of the vote and the 2006 election. In 2006, the  Sierra Club spent $400,000 on TV ads blanketing the district and the League of Conservation Voters tossed in additional funds for radio and TV ads (Ebell 2006). The group that played the largest role in Pombo’s demise was Defenders of Wildlife, which created a two pronged attack: one front involved television attacks on Pombo and the other front featured an aggressive voter outreach.

Defenders of Wildlife created a website called “Pombo in their pocket,” which portrayed the congressman as an out of touch legislator who was more concerned with lobbyists than with his own constituents. They also bought a 30 foot RV which trailed the Congressman throughout the district – passing out literature to interested voters (Eilperin 2006).

  To the surprise of many political observers, including some in the environmental community, on November 7th 2006, Jerry McNerney defeated Rep. Richard Pombo by a  53%-47% margin.

What about Knollenberg?

Rep. Joe Knollenberg won reelection with just 51% of the vote against Nancy Skinner, a carpetbagger who won only 1% of the vote in the 2004 Illinois Senate Democratic primary. Knollenberg is a strong candidate to become th next Phillip Crane or George Gekas. His skills as a candidate are rusty and his district is moving Democratic. All we need is a good candidate and DCCC help.

A concerted effort by enviro groups like the LCV could help defeat. Here’s why the enviros should target him. Knollenberg is one of the leaders in the movement against raising CAFE standards. His intransigent position is slowing down effort to curb global warming. Defeating him with be good for Democrats, America and the Planet.

Louisiana’s fifth district, Huey Long’s district, presently represented by Republican Rodney Alexander,

does not appear as competitive as LA-07, the first district about which I have written in this series on Louisiana’s Congressional seats.  Indeed, Republicans garner 68% of the vote in this seat’s open primaries when confronted with underfunded an inexperienced Democratic challengers.  Here are the results of the 2000, 2004 and 2006 open primaries:

2006
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 778 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
78,211  68% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
33,233  29% Gloria Williams Hearn, D Defeated
1,876  2% Brent Sanders, L Defeated
1,262  1% John Watts, O Defeated

2004
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 850 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
141,495  59% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
58,591  25% Zelma “Tisa” Blakes, D Defeated
37,971  16% John W. “Jock” Scott, R Defeated

2000
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 756 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
42,977  24% Roger Beall, D Defeated
123,975  69% John C. Cooksey, R Elected
5,335  3% Raymond A. “Chuck” Dumas, O Defeated
7,186  4% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated

The poor performance of nominal Democrats in LA-05 is not very encouraging.  But in 2002 and in 1996, years in which this seat was open, very competitive challenges were waged by Democrats.  John Cooksey, a Republican who held this seat until he abandoned it in 2002 to run against Mary Landrieu in the open primary for Louisiana’s US Senate seat, won this seat in 1996.  The open primary results of the 1996 race follow the pattern outlined above: Republicans received 67% of the vote, while Democrats garnered 33%.

1996 Open Primary
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
9,286  5% Michael Jordan Caire, D Defeated
60,853  34% John Cooksey, R Runoff
48,226  27% Clyde Holloway, R Defeated
7,106  4% “Ben” Marshall, R Defeated
5,268  3% Tim Robinson, R Defeated
50,144  28% Francis Thompson, D Runoff

Although Republicans won 67% of the vote, Democrat Francis Thompson, a Representative in the Louisiana House of Representatives, managed to edge one of the Republican challengers and qualify for the runoff, where he cut into the Republican voting base and earned 42% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 1996 runoff:

1996 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
135,990  58% John Cooksey, R Elected
97,363  42% Francis Thompson, D Defeated

When voters are forced to choose between one Democrat and one Republican, the margin of difference between the parties’ respective vote totals decreases dramatically.

This was also the case in 2002, when the seat became open as a result of Cooksey’s abortive run for the US Senate.  Here are the results of the 2002 open primary, which also follows the partisan voting pattern I discuss above:

2002
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
52,952  29% Rodney Alexander, D Runoff
34,533  19% Robert J. Barham, R Defeated
45,278  25% Lee Fletcher, R Runoff
42,573  23% Clyde C. Holloway, R Defeated
4,595  2% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated
1,145  1% Vinson Mouser, O Defeated
3,581  2% Jack Wright, R Defeated

Because three Republicans split their voting base, a Democrat named Rodney Alexander was able to qualify for the runoff despite winning only 29% of the vote.  Alexander won that runoff as a Democrat by 974 votes, staging a major upset in 2002, when Democrats performed poorly in federal races, especially in the South.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

2002 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
86,718  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
85,744  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The upset Alexander staged in 2002 is very similar to that waged by Democrat Charlie Melancon for the open Congressional seat in LA-03 in 2004, when Melancon won his seat by 569 votes.  Here are the results of LA-03’s 2004 open primary and runoff, which once again demonstrates how Democrats can compete in Louisiana if one Republican and one Democrat face off after a primary:

LA-03 2004 open primary

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
25,783  10% Damon J. Baldone, D Defeated
19,347  7% Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D Defeated
10,350  4% Kevin D. Chiasson, R Defeated
63,328  24% “Charlie” Melancon, D Runoff
61,132  23% Craig Romero, R Defeated
84,680  32% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Runoff

LA-03 2004 runoff
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
57,611  50% “Charlie” Melancon, D Elected
57,042  50% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Defeated

But more reasons exist for Alexander’s victory in 2002 than just the ability of Democrats to perform well when facing Republican opponents in highly publicized runoffs.  Alexander may have one his seat as a Democrat in 2002 as a result of perceived shifts in the Republican party.  For John Cooksey was not your standard southern Republican: although Cooksey personally opposed abortion rights, he did not believe the US Constitution should be amended with an abortion ban.  For to him, “federal bureaucrats” should have no role in shaping policy that affects the quotidian lives of Americans.  This psuedo-libertarian stance on cultural issues starkly contrasted with the campaign rhetoric of the Republican party in 2002, possibly swaying voters away from Fletcher to Alexander in the 2002 runoff.

Another factor in Alexander’s 2002 Democratic victory was the US Senate race, the only other federal race on the ballot in the 2002 runoff.  Many believe the Republican’s aggressive campaign against Landrieu backfired, propelling her to a surprise victory in a year when Democratic Senators lost their seats in the South.  Although Landrieu did not perform as well as Alexander in LA-05, she did receive 48.5% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 2002 Senate race runoff and the Congressional runoff in LA-05 by parish:

2002 US Senate Race and LA-05 House runoff results in LA-05

Allen Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,111  59% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,201  41% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,630  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
950  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Evangeline Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740  51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,563  49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,396  44% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,811  56% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Iberville Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 44 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,390  68% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,431  32% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,970  69% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,363  31% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Pointe Coupee Parish (most of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 24 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,977  62% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,998  38% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,044  76% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
967  24% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Avoyelles Parish
U. S. Senator
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,464  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,897  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,429  59% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,531  41% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Rapides Parish
U. S. Senator
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
15,346  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
17,983  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,045  52% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
16,011  48% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

LaSalle Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,253  33% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,530  67% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,498  40% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,257  60% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Catahoula Parish
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,600  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,410  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,687  56% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,305  44% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Concordia Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,853  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,491  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,701  51% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,560  49% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Winn Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,038  48% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,247  52% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,477  58% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,784  42% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Caldwell Parish
U. S. Senator
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,237  43% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,635  57% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,354  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,511  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Franklin Parish
U. S. Senator
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,604  45% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,150  55% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,735  48% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,970  52% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Tensas Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,270  60% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
847  40% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,246  60% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
844  40% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Madison Parish
U. S. Senator
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,759  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,333  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,738  57% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,295  43% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Richland Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,680  44% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,368  56% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,847  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,163  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Ouachita Parish
U. S. Senator
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,330  41% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
24,450  59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,422  42% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
23,982  58% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Jackson Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,691  49% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,786  51% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,562  65% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,940  35% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Lincoln Parish
U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,305  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
6,327  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,681  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
5,766  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Union Parish
U. S. Senator
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,714  39% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,181  61% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,778  41% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,023  59% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Morehouse Parish
U. S. Senator
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,009  50% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,974  50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,956  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,946  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

West Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,135  36% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,028  64% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,171  37% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,983  63% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

East Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,360  63% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
801  37% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,351  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
782  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The results of the US Senate and US House races in the 2002 runoff almost mirror one another, which has lead some to believe Landrieu and Alexander mutually assisted one another.  The only parish Landrieu won that Alexander did not was Evangeline Parish, and only Winn and Jackson Parishes were won by Alexander and not by Landrieu. 

Because Landrieu is a New Orleans Democrat, she did not perform as well as Alexander, who has resided in Northern Louisiana for at least three decades.  But notice the Democratic victory in 2002 was during a year when Landrieu was up for reelection.  This was also the case in 1996, when Democrat Francis Thompson made it into a runoff with John Cooksey, sharing the runoff ticket with Landrieu as she faced off with Republican Woody Jenkins.  LA-05, in other words, can be competitive for Democrats in a year when there is a US Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.  It can also be competitive during a Presidential election year. 

2008 is also promising, as races for federal offices will no longer have open primaries.  Each party will hold its own primary, and the winners of each party’s primary will face off in a general election.  Because 54% of Louisiana’s voters are registered Democrats, many voters who voted for a Republican in open primaries in the past will receive ballots for the Democratic party.  This will most probably result in the election of a consensus candidate who can compete throughout the entire district.  And because only two or three candidates representing different parties will share the ballot on election day, the results should be similar to the runoff results of 1996 and 2002, giving Democrats a viable chance to win Alexander’s seat.

Some believe it will be difficult to unseat Alexander now that he is a Republican.  Alexander switched parties and refiled his election petition just hours before the filing deadline for the open primary in 2004.  Although he claimed he switched parties as a result of the Democratic Party’s nomination of John Kerry for the Presidency, many understand his switch to be the result of White House entreaties.  Alexander was also promised a seat on the Appropriations Committee by the House Republican leadership.  This switch, however, has not helped him consolidate a broader voting base than that enjoyed by his predecessor Cooksey.  Similar to Cooksey in 2000, Alexander garnered 68 in the open primary in 2006.  He is now viewed as a Republican, and the Democrats who previously supported him in 2002 have abandoned him, making him vulnerable to a Democratic challenge.

Also complicating Alexander’s reelection bid in 2008 are the scandals in which his office became embroiled in October 2006.  His assistant was one of the pages pursued by Mark Foley online, and Alexander’s office did not report Foley’s abuse to House leadership, for Alexander claims the page’s parents did not want him to pursue the matter.  Alexander’s inability to manage the affairs of his office also surfaced when his former scheduler, Elizabeth Scott, sued his office for neglecting to take action against Royal Alexander, Rodney Alexander’s Chief of Staff, who engaged in lewd acts of sexual misconduct while sexually harrassing Scott.  Although Gloria Hearn, who lacked a website until a few weeks before the open primary, discussed these problems with voters, Alexander’s ethical lapses were not central to her campaign. 

Alexander’s gross negligence, Landrieu’s reelection for US Senate, changes in Louisiana’s primary system, the high number of African-Americans in the district (34%) and the high percentage of registered Democrats make Alexander a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent.  Thankfully, the Democratic bench in LA-05 is very deep, as there are many eligible state legislators and mayors from which we can choose.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Richard “Rick” GALLOT, Jr. – District 11
Bienville, Clairborne and Lincoln Parishes
Attorney
elected 2000, final term begins 2007
2003 – unopposed

James R. “Jim” FANNIN – District 13
Bienville, Jackson, Ouchita and Winn Parishes
Independent Businessman
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 56/44 in open primary

Charles W. DeWITT – District 25
Rapides and Vernon Parishes
Farmer and Businessman
elected 1979, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Israel B. CURTIS – District 26
Rapides Parish
Legislator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – deated another Dem 53/47 in runoff

Rick L. FARRAR – District 27
Rapides Parish
Attorney
elected 1991 and 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – deated Other Party candidate 61/39 in open primary

Charles “Charlie Mac” McDONALD – District 14
East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouchita and West Carroll Parishes
Retired University Administrator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Willie HUNTER, Jr. – District 17
Ouachita Parish
Attorney
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Francis C. THOMPSON – District 19
East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes
Retired Educator
elected 1974, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed
1996 US House Candidate – defeated 58/42 by Republican in runoff

Lelon KENNEY – District 20
Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes
Farmer
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem 63/37 in runoff

Monica H. WALKER – District 28
Avoyelles Parish
Business Owner
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – unopposed

Karen Gaudet ST. GERMAIN – District 60
Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes
Legislator
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 52/48 in runoff

Many state representatives will retire in 2007, and I imagine many of them can be convinced to run for Alexander’s seat.

LOUISIANA SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Charles D. “CD” JONES – District 34
Ouachita, Richland, East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1992, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1980-1992; Retired Army Captain, 1976-1979
2003 – unopposed

Noble E. ELLINGTON – District 32
Ouachita, Caldwell, Richland, Franklin, Catahoula, LaSalle, Rapides, Avoyelles and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1998, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1988-1995
2003 – defeated another Dem 80/20 in open primary

Joe McPHERSON – District 29
Rapides Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
Former State Senator, 1984-1996; United States Army Reserves
2003 – defeated another Dem 79/21 in open primary

Kenneth M. “Mike” SMITH – District 31
Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, Grant and Rapides Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1996, eligible to serve through 2008
2003 – unopposed

Donald E. HINES, MD – District 28
Allen, Evangeline, Avoyelles and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1993, eligible to serve through 2008
Current Senate President
2003 – unopposed

Robert “Rob” MARIONNEAUX, Jr. – District 17
Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, Iberville, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
2003 – defeated two Republicans 62/29/9 in open primary

Many state senators’ terms end in 2008.  Perhaps they too can be convinced to challenge Alexander.

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

James E. “Jamie” MAYO – Mayor of Monroe
Ouachita Parish, population 52,163
elected October 2001, unopposed 2005

Clarence FIELDS – Mayor of Pineville
Rapides Parish, population 13,858
elected 2002, unopposed 2006

Clarence HAWKINS – Mayor of Bastrop
Morehouse Parish, population 12,763
elected 1989, reelected 2005 83/17 against another Dem in open primary
no website

Mark A. “Tony” GULOTTA – Mayor of Plaquemine
Iberville Parish, population 6,894
elected 1992, unopposed 2004
website under construction

Deano THORNTON – Mayor of Winnfield
Winn Parish, population 5,484
elected April 1994, reelected April 2006 51/49 over another Dem in open primary

Richard MICHAEL – Mayor of Marksville
Avoyelles Parish, population 5,695
elected 1978, reelected April 2006 unopposed
no website

Jack HAMMONS – Mayor of Winnsboro
Franklin Parish, population 5,149
elected 1998, reelected April 2006 53/45 over another Dem in open primary
no website

Isaac FIELDS, Jr. – Mayor of Lake Providence
East Carroll Parish, population 4,751
elected 2002, reelected October 2006 unopposed
no website

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.  A populist Democrat with experience and knowlege of agriculture who has a pseudo-libertarian view of government, especially with respect to cultural and social issues, would be an ideal candidate.  Winnfield, the county seat of Winn Parish, is Huey Long’s hometown, and I imagine a message of agricultural development and economic development in this very poor district will resonate with its voters.

Resources with which to contact activists in this district include Democratic Meetups for Monroe, Louisiana, which includes contact information for the DNC’s congressional district field coordinator, Jeanie Williams-West.  One can also contact members of the Louisiana Democratic Party through their website.

I cannot emphasize the importance of fielding strong challengers to every Congressional seat held by a Republican in Louisiana.  Not only will this help us expand our majority; it will also secure high turnout for Sen. Landrieu and for our Presidential candidate in a year when Democrats and Republicans will hold for the first time separate primaries, thus guarenteeing a race between one Democrat and one Republican on the general election.  As I explain above, this increases our chances of winning Congressional seats in this state, especially if we hold competitive Democratic primaries for each Congressional seat presently held by a Republican.
 

This being the Swing State project, one of the hottest topics of discussion on the front page and in the user diaries has been determining exactly which Republican-held districts are prime for targeting (see here, here, here, here and here for some examples).

Why don’t we take it a step a further with a little groupwork, SSP-style.  If you’re so inclined, here’s what I’d like you to do: pretend that you’re the new DCCC Chair, Chris Van Hollen, and you’re drafting up a preliminary battle plan for 2008 in between intensive intervals of Frogger (or whatever retro arcade games they play in their spare time at the D-trip’s HQ).  Obviously, you will be forced to commit a significant amount of resources into incumbent protection–but skip that part for now, other than keeping in mind that your resources are finite, and you won’t be able to target as many races to the same extent as you did in 2006.  You will then turn your attention to the ripest Republican targets of 2008.  You will need to draft a list of the following:

-Up to 15 top-tier, “must contest” districts.  These are districts with vulnerable Republican incumbents where you will actively seek out a top-shelf candidate, fundraise aggressively for (i.e. Red To Blue designation), and target with significant independent expenditures in the general election campaign.

-Up to 20 second-tier, “maybe” districts.  These are districts that could potentially become competitive.  You will want to keep a close eye on these districts and try to encourage strong local candidates to throw their hat in the ring, but you will hold off aggressive fundraising or expenditure plans until the dynamics become more clear, at which point it’s entirely possible that some of these districts could be substitutes or additions to your list of first-tier races.

-A list of “no” districts (as many as you’d like, but at least 5)–districts that might have been competitive in the past or have been targeted in the past that you feel are probably beyond the Democrats’ reach in 2008, or simply not worth the tremendous investment.  These are districts where you will take no active involvement whatsoever, and let the local grassroots make whatever they will of the race.

This should be fun!

LA-07, presently represented by Republican sophomore Charles Boustany,

is historically Democratic.  Chris John, a Democrat, previously held this from 1997 until he resigned in 2004 to run for an open US Senate seat.  Before John a conservative Democrat named Jimmy Hayes, who left the Democratic party in 1995 and ran an abortive campaign for US Senate in 1996, held this seat for five terms.

A split Democratic party after a contentious open primary allowed Boustany to win this seat in 2004.  Here are the results of the open primary:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
105,761 39% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  Runoff 
5,177 2% Malcolm R. Carriere, D  Defeated 
67,389 25% “Don” Cravins, D  Defeated 
69,079 25% Willie Landry Mount, D  Runoff 
26,526 10% David Thibodaux, R  Defeated

 

Republicans captured only 49% of the vote in the open primary, even though President Bush performed quite well in the district, garnering 60 percent of the vote on the same day.  Democrats, on the other hand, captured 51% of the vote.  But Cravins’s unwillingness to fully back Mount in the runoff resulted in Boustany’s win, an unprecedented win, as he was the first Republican to ever hold this seat.  Here are the 2004 runoff results:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
75,039 55% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  Elected
61,493 45% Willie Landry Mount, D  Defeated

 

Boustany should have been and could have been a vulnerable freshman incumbent in 2006.  The DCCC and the Louisiana Democratic Party chose to not challenge his seat, however.  But Boustany still nonetheless had an opponent in online Democratic activist Mike Stagg, who held Boustany at 71% with little name recognition and very little funding.  One also should not dismiss the general state of chaos that plagued and continues to plague this district in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  Here are the results of the 2006 open primary:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 517 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
113,720 71% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., R  Elected
47,133 29% Mike Stagg, D  Defeated

 

Boustany has done very little to distinguish himself in the House of Representatives during his first term: he did not sponsor legislation while in the majority; and he did not assume a leadership role in the wake of the hurricanes.  Now in the minority, I doubt a sophomore Republican will have many opportunities to assume a meaningful role in the legislative process.  This should contribute to his vulnerability, as should the historical Democratic lean of his district.

Complicaing his reelection bid in 2008 is the reelection bid of Sen. Mary Landrieu.  Landrieu cosponsored legislation with Pete Domenici of New Mexico to earmark offshore oil and gas revenues to the reconstruction of Louisiana’s wetlands, half of which are in Boustany’s district.  Landrieu has also directed funds from many different bills to Louisiana, while Boustany has done virtually nothing to help the district, even though he has a seat on the House Transportation Committee. 

I mention this, as Landrieu won many of the parishes in Boustany’s district in the 2002 runoff.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

Calcasieu Parish

U. S. Senator
All 110 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
25,918 53% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
22,546 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Cameron Parish

U. S. Senator
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,279 50% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
1,277 50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Jefferson Davis Parish

U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,179 53% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
3,780 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Acadia Parish

U. S. Senator
All 65 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,195 47% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
8,214 53% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Vermilion Parish

U. S. Senator
All 62 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,358 51% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
7,042 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

St. Landry Parish

U. S. Senator
All 85 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
13,165 58% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
9,648 42% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Lafayette Parish

U. S. Senator
All 111 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
21,144 41% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
30,568 59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Evangeline Parish (half of which in district)

U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740 51% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
4,563 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated

Landrieu won every parish except for Acadia and Lafayette, and she trailed Terrell by only 2,600 out of 169,000 cast.  In other words, a Louisiana Democrat can compete in this district.  The key to victory, however, is to reduce Republican margins in Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.

District 7 can be won by a Democrat, but that Democrat must campaign early, raise funds early and receive support from the Louisiana Democratic Party and the DCCC.  2008 is also an ideal time to run a strong Democrat in District 7, as Federal Elections in Louisiana will no longer follow the jungle primary model of the state.  According to the Times-Picayune,

In 2008, voters will decide the next U.S. Senate and House elections through a series of party primaries and runoffs to select the most popular Democrat, Republican and third-party candidates. The party nominees will then meet in the November general election, along with any independent candidates.

Democrats and Republicans will have separate primaries for federal elections in 2008, in other words, obviating potential intraparty wars similar to the war between Mount and Cravens that cost Democrats the runoff in 2004. 

This situation is also advantageous to Democrats for another reason.  According to the same Times-Picayune article:

The legacy of that trend still shows up in Louisiana’s voter registration statistics long after other Southern states shifted en masse to the Republican Party. About 54 percent of voters are registered Democrats, compared with 24 percent Republican and 22 percent of other or no affiliation, according to the secretary of state.

If these voters arrive at the polls for the Democratic primary, they will most probably choose a candidate who can compete in all parishes, even Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.  This, I believe, can only be advantageous for Louisiana Democrats.

Now the difficult part is to recruit two or three Louisiana Democrats to run for Boustany’s seat.  There are, thankfully, many Democrats who hold state office in District 7, and I list their names and their offices below.  I also provide other pertinent information.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Mickey FRITH – District 47
Cameron and Vermilion Parishes
Retired teacher/principal
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 64% against another Dem. in open primary

Elcie J. GUILLORY – District 34
Calcasieu Parish
Retired
elected 1993, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 70% against another Dem. in open primary

Gillis J. PINAC – District 42
Acadia Parish
Corporate Finance
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed in open primary

Mickey James GUILLORY – District 41
Acadia, St. Landry and Evangeline Parishes
Retired State Police Officer
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated Republican 58/42 in open primary

Kenneth Eric LaFLEUR – District 38
Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes
Attorney
elected 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – defeated Other party candidate 81-91 in open primary

Clara Guilbeau BAUDOIN – District 39
St. Landry, St. Martin and Lafayette Parishes
Public servant
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem. and Other party candidate 59-29-12

Wilfred T. PIERRE – District 44
Lafayette Parish
Owner/Manager of Three Frenchmen Janitorial
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

5 Representatives in the state House must retire in 2007 as a result of term limits.  This will give them a year to campaign for the seat if they choose to run.  The other 2 Representatives also have strong resumes, and they too can be encouraged to run.

LOUISIANA STATE SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Willie L. MOUNT – District 27
Calcasieu Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through term ending 2012
Former Mayor of Lake Charles, 1992-1999
Candidate for US House in 2004, lost to a Republican 45/55 in runoff
2003 – unopposed

“Nick” GAUTREAUX – District 26
Vermilion, Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2004, eligible to serve through term ending 2016
2003 – defeated a Republican 54/46 in open primary

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

Randy ROACH – Mayor of Lake Charles
Calcasieu Parish, population 70,735
appointed 2000, reelected 2001, reelected 2005, defeating another Dem 85/15 in an open primary

Ron LeLEUX – Mayor of Sulphur
Calcasieu Parish, population 19,901
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 80/20 in an open primary

Mark PIAZZA – Mayor of Abbeville
Acadia Parish, population 11,698
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 59/41 in an open primary

Terry W. DUHON – Mayor of Jennings
Jefferson Davis Parish, population 10,712
elected 2003, reelected in 2005, defeating a Republican 70/30 in an open primary

James J. “Jimbo” PETITJEAN – Mayor of Rayne
Acadia Parish, population 8,537
in office since at least 1994, unopposed in 2006
(no website)

Hazel MYERS – Mayor of Scott
Lafayette Parish, population 7,855
in office since at least 1994, reelected in 2006, defeating another Dem 64/36

Charles E. LANGLINAIS – Mayor of Broussard
Lafayette and St. Martin Parishes, population 6,314
elected 2002, reelected in 2006, defeating a Republican 57/43 in an open primary

Glenn L. BRASSEAUX – Mayor of Carencro
Lafayette Parish, population 6,022

OTHER ELECTED OFFICIALS
C. Dale SITTIG – Louisiana Public Service Commission, Commissioner District 4
Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Catahoula, Evangeline, Grant, Jefferson Davis, LaSalle, Pointe Coupee, Rapides, St. Landry, St. Martin, Vermilion and Vernon Parishes
Louisiana House of Representatives, 1983-1995
Elected 1995, term limited, ending 2010
2004 – unopposed

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.

Resources available to activists include the Lafayette Democrats and the Southwest Louisiana Democrats websites and their mutual blog, where 2006 Democratic candidate Mike Stagg and other local Democrats post.  The Lafayette Dems have a weekly cable television show, Blue Mondays, where they interview prominent politicians such as Mary Landrieu.  Episodes of Blue Mondays are available on YouTube.  One of the bloggers at Lafayette Democrats, Anthony Fazzio, is very impressive.  Here are two videos with Fazzio, who is an attorney in Lafayette:

Perhaps Anthony Fazzio can be recruited.

Lafayette Democrats are also putting pressure on Boustany, who has voted against the Democrats’ 100 hours.  Here is the program:

I hope this helps, and I hope we will recruit and support a Democrat in LA-07 in 2008.  Not only will this help us gain a seat in the US House; it will also ensure we do not lose a seat in 2012 when Louisiana will most probably lose a Congressional seat.  Making every Louisiana House seat competitive will also aid Mary Landrieu’s 2008 Senate reelection bid.

Earlier today, the Democratic-controlled House of Represenatives passed another major plank of their 100 Hours platform: promoting stem cell research. The legislation sailed through the House with a strong, but not quite veto-proof margin of 253-174. 37 Republicans defected from their party line to vote for this sensible legislation, which as mcjoan describes, “allows addtional stem cell lines; imposes ethical guidelines; contains reporting guidelines; and authorizes federal funds only for stem cells from embryos that fertility clinics would discard.”

Many of those 37 defectors include names that shouldn’t be surprising: Dent, Kirk, Reichert, Porter, Pryce, Shays, Wilson, et cetera–Republicans who either barely beat back stiff challenges in 2006 or those representing purplish (or slightly bluish) territory. It would definitely not be in their best interests to oppose mainstream American values like promoting ethical embryonic stem cell research in the search for cures to end the suffering of millions of families nationwide. However, many House Republicans representing tight districts are sticking to their guns on opposing such legislation in defiance of public opinion, common sense and empathy. I’ve taken the liberty of compiling all of the worst culprits–those representing districts with a PVI of less than R+5.0. With Democrats controlling the legislation in the House, votes like these will be very useful in determining which Republicans are the most badly out of step with their districts.

Member	District	PVI
Bilirakis	FL-09	R+4.3
Buchanan	FL-13	R+4.1
Camp	MI-04	R+4.0
Chabot	OH-01	R+0.5
Diaz-Balart, M.	FL-25	R+4.4
English	PA-03	R+1.6
Feeney	FL-24	R+3.1
Ferguson	NJ-07	R+0.6
Gallegly	CA-24	R+4.8
Garrett	NJ-05	R+4.4
Graves	MO-06	R+4.8
Hayes	NC-08	R+3.0
Keller	FL-08	R+3.0
King	NY-03	D+2.1
Kline	MN-02	R+2.7
Knollenberg	MI-09	R+0.1
Latham	IA-04	D+0.4
Lobiondo	NJ-02	D+4.0
Manzullo	IL-16	R+4.5
McCotter	MI-11	R+1.2
McHugh	NY-23	R+0.2
Mica	FL-07	R+4.1
Miller	MI-10	R+4.4
Murphy	PA-18	R+2.2
Renzi	AZ-01	R+2.2
Reynolds	NY-26	R+2.6
Rogers	AL-03	R+4.3
Rogers	MI-08	R+1.9
Ros-Lehtinen	FL-18	R+4.3
Roskam	IL-06	R+2.9
Ryan	WI-01	R+2.2
Saxton	NJ-03	D+3.3
Smith	NJ-04	R+0.9
Tiberi	OH-12	R+0.7
Walberg	MI-07	R+2.5
Walsh	NY-25	D+3.4
Weldon	FL-15	R+4.1
Weller	IL-11	R+1.1

Check out some of those names: Walsh, Chabot, Ferguson, Reynolds, Renzi, King, Buchanan. Did they learn nothing from November 7, 2006?

I already posted lists ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House and the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.  Although these rankings are far from definitive, they do provide one with a sense of how the landscape will appear in 2008.

1 CT-04 (SHAYS) D+5
2 WA-08 (REICHERT) D+2
3 PA-06 (GERLACH) D+2
4 NM-01 (WILSON) D+2
5 NV-03 (PORTER) D+1
6 NJ-07 (FERGUSON) R+1
7 NC-08 (HAYES) R+3
8 PA-15 (DENT) D+2
9 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) R+0
10 IL-06 (ROSKAM) R+3

11 FL-13 (BUCHANAN) R+4
12 OH-15 (PRYCE) R+1
13 MN-06 (BACHMANN) R+5
14 MI-07 (WALBERG) R+2
15 AZ-01 (RENZI) R+2
16 MI-11 (McCOTTER) R+1
17 NY-26 (REYNOLDS) R+3
18 NY-29 (KUHL) R+5
19 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE) R+9
20 IL-10 (KIRK) D+4

21 VA-02 (DRAKE) R+6
22 OH-01 (CHABOT) R+1
23 NY-13 (FOSSELLA) D+1
24 IL-11 (WELLER) R+1
25 CA-26 (DREIER) R+3
26 CA-50 (BILBRAY) R+5
27 VA-11 (DAVIS) R+1
28 PA-03 (ENGLISH) R+2
29 MN-02 (KLEIN) R+3
30 OH-02 (SCHMIDT) R+13

31 NY-03 (KING) D+2
32 KY-04 (DAVIS) R+12
33 FL-08 (KELLER) R+3
34 IA-04 (LATHAM) D+0
35 NJ-05 (GARRETT) R+4
36 NY-25 (WALSH) D+3
37 MI-08 (ROGERS) R+2
38 NJ-03 (SAXTON) D+3
39 WY-AL (CUBIN) R+19
40 DE-AL (CASTLE) D+7

41 WV-02 (CAPITO) R+5
42 OH-12 (TIBERI) R+1
43 PA-18 (MURPHY) R+2
44 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE) R+2
45 TX-32 (SESSIONS) R+11
46 FL-15 (WELDON) R+3
47 WA-05 (McMORRIS) R+7
48 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO) D+4
49 OH-03 (TURNER) R+3
50 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE) R+11

51 NE-02 (TERRY) R+9
52 NV-02 (HELLER) R+8
53 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY) R+12
54 AZ-02 (FRANKS) R+9
55 VA-10 (WOLF) R+5
56 IL-15 (JOHNSON) R+6
57 AL-03 (ROGERS) R+4
58 MI-04 (CAMP) R+3
59 NM-02 (PEARCE) R+6
60 NC-05 (FOXX) R+15

I already posted a list ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House.  Here is a list of the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY)R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL) R+1
9 IL-08 (BEAN) R+5
10 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ) R+4

11 PA-04 (ALTMIRE) R+3
12 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND) R+3
13 NC-11 (SCHULER) R+7
14 CA-11 (McNERNEY) R+3
15 MN-01 (WALZ) R+1
16 IN-02 (DONNELLY) R+4
17 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER) R+0
18 NY-24 (ARCURI) R+1
19 KY-03 (YARMUTH) D+2
20 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS) R+1

21 LA-03 (MELANCON) R+5
22 PA-08 (MURPHY) D+3
23 GA-12 (BARROW) D+2
24 TX-17 (EDWARDS) R+18
25 FL-22 (KLEIN) D+4
26 GA-08 (MARSHALL) R+8
27 NH-02 (HODES) D+3
28 IA-03 (BOSWELL) D+1
29 OR-05 (HOOLEY) D+1
30 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17

31 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER) D+2
32 OH-18 (SPACE) R+6
33 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH) R+9
34 IA-02 (LOEBSACK) D+7
35 CO-03 (SALAZAR) R+6
36 CT-02 (COURTNEY) D+8
37 CT-05 (MURPHY) D+4
38 VT-AL (WELSH) D+9
39 PA-07 (SESTAK) D+4
40 IA-01 (BRALEY) D+5

41 SC-05 (SPRATT) R+6
42 SD-AL (HERSETH) R+10
43 KS-03 (MOORE) R+4
44 TX-27 (ORTIZ) R+1
45 TN-04 (DAVIS) R+3
46 IN-07 (CARSON) D+9
47 PA-17 (HOLDEN) R+7
48 AR-02 (SNYDER) R+0
49 ND-AL (POMEROY) R+13
50 VA-09 (BOUCHER) R+7

51 KY-06 (CHANDLER) R+7
52 NY-01 (BISHOP) D+3
53 TX-15 (HINOJOSA) D+3
54 IL-17 (HARE) D+5
55 TX-28 (CUELLAR) R+1
56 OR-04 (DeFAZIO) D+0
57 WI-03 (KIND) D+3
58 NC-13 (MILLER) D+2
59 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE) R+3
60 WA-03 (BAIRD) D+0

A list of the sixty most vulnerable House Republicans will be generated shortly.

Ranking every House seat by PVI, incumbent or incumbent’s party performance in 2004 and incumbent performance in 2006, I have obtained the following list of House seats in order of vulnerablility.  While this list is in no way definitive, it does provide us with a rough sketch of the 2008 landscape.  New members are in italics, and members who received less than 55% are in bold.  Following the name of each incumbent is her or his district’s PVI, which is explicated here.  My calculations also consider the results of special elections and runoffs.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN-D) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA-D) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL-D) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY-D) R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY-D) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL-D) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON-D) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL-D) R+1
9 CT-04 (SHAYS-R) D+5
10 IL-08 (BEAN-D) R+5

11 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ-D) R+4
12 PA-04 (ALTMIRE-D) R+3
13 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND-D) R+3
14 NC-11 (SCHULER-D) R+7
15 WA-08 (REICHERT-R) D+2
16 PA-06 (GERLACH-R) D+2
17 CA-11 (McNERNEY-D) R+3
18 NM-01 (WILSON-R) D+2
19 MN-01 (WALZ-D) R+1
20 NV-03 (PORTER-R) D+1

21 IN-02 (DONNELLY-D) R+4
22 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER-D) R+0
23 NY-24 (ARCURI-D) R+1
24 KY-03 (YARMUTH-D) D+2
25 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS-D) R+1
26 LA-03 (MELANCON-D) R+5
27 PA-08 (MURPHY-D) D+3
28 GA-12 (BARROW-D) D+2
29 TX-17 (EDWARDS-D) R+18
30 FL-22 (KLEIN-D) D+4

31 NJ-07 (FERGUSON-R) R+1
32 GA-08 (MARSHALL-D) R+8
33 NH-02 (HODES-D) D+3
34 IA-03 (BOSWELL-D) D+1
35 OR-05 (HOOLEY-D) D+1
36 NC-08 (HAYES-R) R+3
37 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17
38 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER-D) D+2
39 PA-15 (DENT-R) D+2
40 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG-R) R+0

41 OH-18 (SPACE-D) R+6
42 IL-06 (ROSKAM-R) R+3
43 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH-D) R+9
44 FL-13 (BUCHANAN-R) R+4
45 OH-15 (PRYCE-R) R+1
46 MN-06 (BACHMANN-R) R+5
47 IA-02 (LOEBSACK-D) D+7
48 MI-07 (WALBERG-R) R+2
49 AZ-01 (RENZI-R) R+2
50 CO-03 (SALAZAR-D) R+6

51 MI-11 (McCOTTER-R) R+1
52 CT-02 (COURTNEY-D) D+8
53 NY-26 (REYNOLDS-R) R+3
54 NY-29 (KUHL-R) R+5
55 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE-R) R+9
56 CT-05 (MURPHY-D) D+4
57 IL-10 (KIRK-R) D+4
58 VT-AL (WELSH-D) D+9
59 VA-02 (DRAKE-R) R+6
60 PA-07 (SESTAK-D) D+4

61 OH-01 (CHABOT-R) R+1
62 IA-01 (BRALEY-D) D+5
63 NY-13 (FOSSELLA-R) D+1
64 IL-11 (WELLER-R) R+1
65 CA-26 (DREIER-R) R+3
66 CA-50 (BILBRAY-R) R+5
67 SC-05 (SPRATT-D) R+6
68 VA-11 (DAVIS-R) R+1
69 PA-03 (ENGLISH-R) R+2
70 MN-02 (KLEIN-R) R+3

71 SD-AL (HERSETH-D) R+10
72 KS-03 (MOORE-D) R+4
73 OH-02 (SCHMIDT-R) R+13
74 NY-03 (KING-R) D+2
75 KY-04 (DAVIS-R) R+12
76 FL-08 (KELLER-R) R+3
77 IA-04 (LATHAM-R) D+0
78 NJ-05 (GARRETT-R) R+4
79 NY-25 (WALSH-R) D+3
80 MI-08 (ROGERS-R) R+2

81 NJ-03 (SAXTON-R) D+3
82 TX-27 (ORTIZ-D) R+1
83 WY-AL (CUBIN-R) R+19
84 TN-04 (DAVIS-D) R+3
85 IN-07 (CARSON-D) D+9
86 PA-17 (HOLDEN-D) R+7
87 DE-AL (CASTLE-R) D+7
88 AR-02 (SNYDER-D) R+0
89 ND-AL (POMEROY-D) R+13
90 VA-09 (BOUCHER-D) R+7

91 WV-02 (CAPITO-R) R+5
92 OH-12 (TIBERI-R) R+1
93 KY-06 (CHANDLER-D) R+7
94 PA-18 (MURPHY-R) R+2
95 OH-14 (LaTOURETTE-R) R+2
96 TX-32 (SESSIONS-R) R+11
97 NY-01 (BISHOP-D) D+3
98 TX-15 (HINOJOSA-D) D+3
99 FL-15 (WELDON-R) R+3

100 IL-17 (HARE-D) D+5
101 WA-05 (McMORRIS-R) R+5
102 TX-28 (CUELLAR-D) R+1
103 OR-04 (DeFAZIO-D) D+0
104 NJ-02 (LoBIONDO-R) D+4
105 OH-03 (TURNER-R) R+3
106 WI-03 (KIND-D) D+3
107 NC-13 (MILLER-D) D+2
108 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE-D) R+3
109 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE-R) R+11
110 NE-02 (TERRY-R) R+9

111 NV-02 (HELLER-R) R+8
112 NE-01 (FORTENBERRY-R) R+12
113 WA-03 (BAIRD-D) D+0
114 AZ-02 (FRANKS-R) R+9
115 VA-10 (WOLF-R) R+5
116 MS-04 (TAYLOR-D) R+16
117 IL-15 (JOHNSON-R) R+6
118 TN-06 (GORDON-D) R+4
119 AL-03 (ROGERS-R) R+4
120 MI-04 (CAMP-R) R+3

121 MO-04 (SKELTON-D) R+11
122 WV-01 (MOLLOHAN-D) R+6
123 NM-02 (PEARCE-R) R+6
124 NC-05 (FOXX-R) R+15
125 MO-03 (CARNAHAN-D) D+8
126 OR-01 (WU-D) D+6
127 FL-02 (BOYD-D) R+2
128 IL-13 (BIGGERT-R) R+5
129 OH-16 (REGULA-R) R+3
130 CA-45 (BONO-R) R+3
131 MI-06 (UPTON-R) R+2
132 MN-07 (PETERSON-D) R+6

Lists of the most vulnerable Republican and Democratic House incumbents will be posted shortly.

In the 2006 House Races, the Democratic Party picked up a total of 31 seats (incl. VT-AL). Unfortunately we missed picking up seats in 19 very close contests, by less than 10,000 votes in each District. We ended up short by 88,577 votes or an average of 4,662 votes per District. By contrast our candidates won 16 seats in districts by less than 10,000 votes. We captured/held those 16 seats by a total of 82,480 votes for an average of 5,155 votes per District.

Some have asserted that if the DCCC had reacted to some of these races and provided necessary funding, we could have picked up more seats. Others have claimed that the DCCC did the best it could with the resources on hand and the fact that the RNCC had to pour money & resources into normally safe GOP Districts, benefited us nationwide.

I’ll let y’all come to your own conclusions about that, because the purpose of this Diary is more from a Statistical/Tactical Perspective for 2008 regarding the lessons we’ve learned from the 2006 Midterms.

Caveat: Races won by over 10,000 votes (either side) are not included in the Parameters of this Study, though any number of those could be in play in ’08, plus many other seats may be on the horizon that were not in-play in 2006. On the same note, many of these races shown below may not be close for us in ’08, but are sure to get some attention.

More below the fold. Enjoy!

1. CT-02

Courtney-D 121,248 50.002%
Simmons-R 121,165 49.998%
Margin=  +83 D

2. NC-08
Hayes-R 60,926 50.01%
Kissell-D 60,597 49.99%
Margin = +329 R

3. FL-13

Buchanan-R 119,309 50.008%
Jennings-D 118,940 49.992%
Margin = +369 R

4. NM-01

Wilson-R 105,986 50.02%
Madrid-D 105,125 49.98%
Margin = +861 R

5. GA-12

Barrow-D 71,651 50.3%
Burns-R 70,787 49.7%
Margin = +864 D

6. WY-AL

Cubin-R 93,336 48.3%
Trauner-D 92,324 47.8%.
Rankin-Lbt  7,481 3.9%
Margin = +1,012 R

7. OH-15

Pryce-R 110,714 50.2%
Kilroy-D 109,659 49.8%
Margin = +1,055 R

8. PA-08

Murphy-D 125,667 50.3%
Fitzpatrick-R 124,146 49.7%
Margin = +1,521 D

9. GA-08

Marshall-D 80,660 50.55%
Collins-R 78,908 49.45%
Margin = +1,752 D

10. OH-02

Schmidt-R 120,112 50.45%
Wulsin-D 117,595 49.39%
Noy-NP  298 0.13
Condit-NP  76 0.03
Margin = +2,517 R

11. NJ-07

Ferguson-R 98,399 49.43%
Stender-D 95,454 47.95%
Abrams-WTD  3,176 1.6%
Young-Lbt 2,046 1.02%
Margin = +2,945 R

12. PA-06

Gerlach-R 118,807 51.9%
Murphy-D 115,806 48.1%
Margin = +3,001 R

13. NY-25

Walsh-R-C 110,525 50.8%
Maffei-D 107,108 49.2%
Margin = +3,417 R

14. NV-03

Porter-R 102,232 48.5%
Hafen-D 98,261 46.6%
Silvestri-Lbt 5,157 2.4%
Hansen-I 5,329 2.5%
Margin = +3,971 R

15. FL-16

Mahoney-D 115,832 49.55%
Foley (Negron)-R 111,415 47.66%
Ross-NPA  6,526 2.8%
Margin = +4,417 D

16. NY-19

Hall-D-WFP 100,119 51.2%
Kelly-R-C 95,359 48.8%
Margin = +4,760 D

17. IL-06

18. Roskam-R 91,382 51.35%
Duckworth-D 86,572 48.65%
Margin = +4,810 R

18. VA-02

Drake-R 88,777 51.27%
Kellam-D 83,901 48.73%
Margin = +4,876 R

19. NH-01

Shea-Porter-D 100,691 51.3%
Bradley-R 95,527 48.7%
Margin = +5,164 D

20. KY-03

Yarmuth-D 122,489 50.62%
Northrup-R 116,568 48.18%
Mancini-Lbt 2,134 0.9%
Parker-I 774 0.3%
Margin = +5,921 D

21. WI-08

Kagen-D 141,570 50.95%
Gard-R 135,622 49.05%
Margin = +5,948 D

22. IA-02
  Loesback-D 107,683 51.52%
Leach-R 101,701 48.48%
Margin = +5,982 D

23.CO-04

Musgrave-R 109,732 45.61%%
Paccione-D 103,748 43.12%
Eidness-Lbt 27,133  11.28%
Margin = +5,984 R

24. NY-29

Kuhl-R-C 106,077 51.46%
Massa-D-WFP 100,044 48.54%
Margin = +6,033 R

25. CT-04

Shays-R 106,510 50.96%
Farrell- 99,45 47.58%
Maymin-Lbt  3,058 0.15%
Margin:  + 7,060 R

26. WA-08

Reichert-R 129,362 51.46%
Burner-D 122,021 48.54%
Margin = +7,341 R

27. KS-02

  Boyda-D 114,139 50.6%
Ryun-R 106,329 47.1%
Tucker-F 5,094  2.2%
Margin = +7,810 D

28. AZ-05

Mitchell-D 101.838 50.4%
Hayworth-R 93,815  46.4%
Severin-I 6,357  3.1%
Margin = +8, 023 D

29. FL-22

Klein-D 108,688 50.9%
Shaw-R 100,663 47.1%
Evangelista-I  4,254  2.0%
Margin = +8,025 D

30. NY-26

Reynolds-R-C 109,257 51.98%
Davis-D-WFP 100,914 48.02%
Margin = +8,343 R

31. CA-04

Doolittle-R 135,818 49.1%
Brown-D 126,999 45.9%
Warren-Lbt 14,076  11.28%
Margin = +8,819 R

32. OH-01

Chabot-R 105,680 52.25%
Cranley-D 96,584 47.75%
Margin = +9,096 R

33. PA-04

Altmire-D 124,674 51.9%
Hart-R 115,394  48.1%
Margin = 9,280 D

34. MI-07

. Walberg-R 122,348 49.93%
Renier-D 112,665 45.98%
Hutchinson-Lbt 3,788 1.55%
Horn-UST  3,611 1.47%
Shwarz-R(WI)  2,614 1.07
Margin =+ 9,683 R

35. IN-09

Hill-D 110,454 50.02%
Sodrel-R 100,469 45.48%
Schansberg-Lbt 9,893 4.5%
Margin = +9,985 D

These Election Results are based on Certified Election Returns from the individual States’ Secretary of State/Board of Elections Sites, or in the case of Illinos, the two County sites, Cook & DuPage, as the State site is pitiful.(The Commonwealth of Virginia site gets an A++.) Should anyone come up with varying results, please feel free to post them and the source info, so that it can be verified.

Percentage calculations are rounded and may not add up to 100.000%. If anyone would like the links to SOS BOE sites for each/any race, please ask and I will provide in a Comment reply.

Originally posted at Daily Kos on 12/18/06. Some typos regarding vote totals and percentages have been since corrected there and here. Thanks for any input.

SurveyUSA has poll numbers out for the runoff election in TX-23. GOP rep. Henry Bonilla leads former Democratic rep. Ciro Rodriguez by a 7 point margin, 53-46.

The district as it was sampled is 59% white, and 36% hispanic. Bonilla takes 70% of the white vote and Ciro gets 72% of the Hispanic vote. You can look at the rest of the crosstabs in the link above, but I think that one says it. The majority is composed of white rural Texans who vote mostly for the GOP, and a Hispanic GOP incumbent captures a significant portion of the Hispanic minority. As for what would change this result, the crosstab to look at is party ID. The GOP has a small advantage here (43-39), but the incumbent captures 10% of Democrats and the challenger only 5% of Republicans and wins indepents (18%) by only 3%. A competent incumbent untainted by a major scandal is likely to produce similar numbers among partisan voters, so Ciro most likely will need to close the gap by appealing to independents. In the current electoral climate, a good Democratic candidate should be able to win the independent vote by more than 3%.