Tag: House

Third quarter fundraising numbers came out over a week ago.  Fundraising is a huge indicator to a lot of things when it comes to predicting races and keeping an eye out for possible retirements. 

So lets get down to it.  I’m going to take people who fundraised under 100,000$ and go over their age, and length of their political career. 

Senate:
Mike Enzi raised a total of $7,525.  Enzi is 63 years old, and has spent 27 of the last 32 years in elected office.  He is older, and is looking foward to a long time in the minority. 

Thad Cochran raised a total of $14,124.  Cochran is 70 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in congress.  (4 years in the house, then the last 30 in the senate). 

House:
John Doolittle (R-CA-04) raised $50,000.  Doolittle is 57 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in elected office (CA Senate ’80-90, US House ’90-present)

Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41) raised $67,000.  Lewis is 73 years old and has spent the last 39 years in elected office (CA Senate ’68-78, US House ’78-Present)

Gary Miller (R-CA-42) raised $39,000.  Miller is 59 years old and has spent 16 of the last 18 years in elected office. 

Bill Young (R-FL-10) raised $29,000.  Young is 77 years old, and has spent the last 47 years in elected office (FL Senate ’60-70, US House ’70-present)

Dave Weldon (R-FL-15) raised $29,000.  Weldon is 54 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Mark Souder (R-IN-03) raised $83,000.  Souder is 57 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Steve Buyer (R-IN-04) raised $74,000.  Buyer is 49 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Julia Carson (D-IN-07) raised $9,000.  Carson is
69 years old, and has spent the last 35 years in political office.  She also has health issues. 

Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD-06) raised $1,000.  Bartlett is 81 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Dennis Kucinech (D-OH-10) raised $40.  Kucinech is 61 years old, and has spent 21 of the last 38 years in elected office. 

Virgil Goode (R-VA-05) raised $53,000.  Goode is 61 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in elective office (VA Senate ’73-96, US House ’96-present)

Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) raised $79,000.  Wolf is 68 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in the US House. 

Barbera Cubin (R-WY-AL) raised $11,000.  Cubin is 61 years old, and has spent the last 20 years in elected office.  Cubin is also being pushed towards retirement by state Republicans for her weak electability. 

In case you are wondering, I did omit a number of people who were very close to $100,000, if they had a contested primary, or if they were in a competitive district (Obviously making it harder to raise large sums of money.  If I didn’t, this would have taken me all day). 

People Ommitted:
Bilbray-R-CA-50
Latham-R-IA-04
King-R-IA-05
Sali-R-ID-01
Lipinski-D-IL-03
Gilchrest-R-MD-01
Saxton=R-NJ-03
Udall-D-NM-03
Fossella-R-NY-13
McHugh-R-NY-19
McCaul-R-TX-10

Future Democratic retirements? 
House: 1-2
Senate: 0

Future Republican retirements? 
House: 5-11
Senate: 1-2

(Of course these are off of fundraising only – Obviously I’m not looking into people who are off the radar completely)

Here’s what I guessed.

Democrats-US House: Carson for Sure, Kucinech is a maybe.

Republicans-US Senate: Cochran for sure, Enzi is a maybe. 

Republicans-US House: Lewis, Young, Bartlett, Cubin for sure – Everyone else maybe. 

Well, that didn’t take long.  Chris Minor, a Blackwater contractor who announced a bid against freshman Dem Joe Donnelly just a few weeks ago, is dropping out of the race:

Blackwater contractor Chris Minor announced early Friday he’s dropping out of the Indiana 2nd District congressional race, citing conflicts with his upcoming duties in Iraq.

Minor, a former Kokomo High School graduate and retired U.S. Army officer, announced in late September he would challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Granger.

Friday, Minor said running for office would be “too great a distraction” from his upcoming deployment as an independent contractor in Iraq.

Minor was a gong show candidate.  He denied any closeness with the Blackwater, choosing to instead classify his affairs with the company as being merely a “pay relationship” (whatever that’s supposed to mean).  That didn’t stop him from defending the company earlier in the month, though:

Minor said he thinks Blackwater will be vindicated by the investigations.

“I think once the investigations are over, we’ll see a bunch of guys who have just been fighting in a very tough, combat environment.”

Guess not, Chris.

There were other facets of Minor’s profile that were less than compelling, including his decision to resign from the Kokomo Police Department after an off-duty altercation, as well as a drunk driving charge.

I guess it’s back to the drawing board for Indiana Republicans.

Race Tracker: IN-02

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:

State	CD	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+4.3	46	54	43	57
FL	21	Diaz-Balart, Lincoln	(R)	R+6.2	43	57	42	58
FL	25	Diaz-Balart, Mario	(R)	R+4.4	44	56	45	55

It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.

Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.

They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:

Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.

“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.

Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.

As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:

“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.

“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.

Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.

Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.

Race Tracker: FL-18 | FL-21 | FL-25

A few weeks ago, we highlighted a long list of incumbents in marginal districts that voted against State Children’s Health Insurance bill in the House. Today, I want to bring to attention all the Republican lawmakers who listened to their moral conscience and changed their votes to override the President’s veto of the S-CHIP bill that will expand health care to millions of needy children:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI

Oh, that’s right. There WEREN’T ANY. In fact, the only vote changes on the Republican side of the aisle since last time were that Rep. Peter King (NY-03), who voted for the package originally, skipped town and failed to cast a vote against his beloved President today, and Babs Cubin (WY-AL), Wally Herger (CA-02), and Ted Poe (TX-02) actually found the time to show up and vote against children today. Bravo, folks.

So let’s take the opportunity to tally up the following Republican’ts occupying districts with a PVI of R+6 or weaker who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with George Bush today and against children and families who deserve health coverage:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
NJ-03	Jim Saxton	R	D+3.3
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	R	R+0.1
OH-01	Steve Chabot	R	R+0.5
IL-11	Jerry Weller	R	R+1.1
MI-11	Thaddeus McCotter	R	R+1.2
MI-08	Mike Rogers	R	R+1.9
WI-01	Paul Ryan	R	R+2.2
MI-07	Tim Walberg	R	R+2.5
MN-02	John Kline	R	R+2.7
IL-06	Pete Roskam	R	R+2.9
FL-08	Ric Keller	R	R+3.0
NC-08	Robin Hayes	R	R+3.0
FL-24	Tom Feeney	R	R+3.1
NY-26	Tom Reynolds	R	R+3.5
MI-04	Dave Camp	R	R+4.0
CA-26	Dave Dreier	R	R+4.1
FL-07	John Mica	R	R+4.1
FL-15	Dave Weldon	R	R+4.1
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	R	R+4.3
AL-03	Mike Rogers	R	R+4.3
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	R	R+4.3
NJ-05	Scott Garrett	R	R+4.4
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4
IL-16	Don Manzullo	R	R+4.5
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	R	R+4.6
IL-13	Judy Biggert	R	R+4.7
IL-14	Dennis Hastert	R	R+4.8
MO-06	Sam Graves	R	R+4.8
VA-04	Randy Forbes	R	R+4.9
FL-04	Ginny Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1
MN-06	Michele Bachmann	R	R+5.1
NY-29	Randy Kuhl	R	R+5.2
FL-12	Adam Putnam	R	R+5.3
NJ-11	Rodney Frelinghuysen	R	R+5.5
VA-05	Virgil Goode	R	R+5.6
NM-02	Steve Pearce	R	R+5.7
VA-02	Thelma Drake	R	R+5.9
AZ-03	John Shadegg	R	R+5.9
CA-44	Ken Calvert	R	R+6.0
CA-46	Dana Rohrabacher	R	R+6.0

Let these names be known now — they are the fringe minority that’s siding with an unpopular president against a bi-partisan bill championed by conservative Republican Senators like Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch. Shame on all of them–including the long list that this chart misses. Dishonorable mentions go to Democrats Jim Marshall and Gene Taylor, who both occupy steeply Republican districts, but who both need a spine transplant.

According to Roll Call, Dennis Hastert will announce his resignation from the House tomorrow:

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is expected to announce Thursday that he is resigning his seat in Congress effective later this year, eventually setting up a special election to succeed him, knowledgeable GOP sources said late Wednesday.

Rumblings have persisted for months that Hastert, who announced this summer that he would not seek re-election in 2008, was unlikely to complete his current term.

This week Hastert met with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and was making calls to tell people of his decision on Wednesday morning.

The article also adds that, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich has 5 days from Hastert’s last day in office to set a date for the special election, which must take place within 115 days.  Depending on the time line of Hastert’s decision, we could see a special election coinciding with the state’s February 5th primary.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE: The Politico says that Hastert’s announcement is postponed:

Hastert initially planned to make an announcement Thursday, but has since scrapped that decision, according to one GOP aide. The former speaker, who announced his plans to retire over the summer, is still expected to leave the House some time in December, but the date of his departure – as well as his announcement – remains unclear.

Lordy, what a teaser.  Just GO.

Race Tracker: IL-14

Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly, who was earlier considering a bid for the seat of retiring Rep. Dave Hobson (R-OH) has decided to pass on the race:

One of the Democrats recruited to run for the seat of retiring Rep. David Hobson (R-Ohio) told the Politico that he wouldn’t be entering the race and added that he didn’t “see any way” for Democrats to win the seat.

“I hate to concede already, but it’s the truth,” said Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly. “I don’t know of a Democrat out there that can take on [state senator] Steve Austria – unless someone will move into the district.”

Immediately after Hobson’s retirement announcement, GOP state senator Steve Austria announced his candidacy. Kelly called him a very “formidable opponent” and predicted he would be able to raise sizable amount of money for the campaign.  He added that the sprawling district, covering eight counties, makes it challenging and expensive to run a district-wide campaign.

Kelly may think he’s scoring points for candidness, but why he decided to create a “Even Democrats Don’t Think Democrats Can Win” narrative is puzzling.  Why shoot the next candidate who will take on the task of running here in the foot?  We’re all well aware that this red distirct (R+6) is hardly at the top of Democratic pick-up opportunities, but Sheriff Gene “Eeyore” Kelly showed little political sense in planting a “why bother” message before the field is even set, especially since the article goes on to include this nugget:

At the same time, Democrats performed respectably in the district in last year’s congressional elections: Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland won about 58 percent of the vote, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won 50 percent there.

Lame, sir.

Race Tracker: OH-07

In an interview with Minnesota Public Radio, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, the leading Republican candidate to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), offers his thoughts on the coming Congressional campaign:

“This is absolutely another wonderful opportunity to enter public service at a different level, focusing on issues like globalization and issues that I think that I genuinely care about and I think have learned a lot about some expertise on now and try to carry that to a new level as we do try to educate our kids for a global economy,” he said. “So that’s something in the back of my mind that definitely interests me and the opportunity, and I think I would do a good job.”

This guy needs to re-take “Soundbytes For The Media 101”.

(Hat-tip: MNPublius)

9:19PM: Tsongas declares victory.  Nothing to be too proud of in this D+10.7 district, I’m sorry to say.
9:09PM: I’m hearing that local TV stations are calling it for Tsongas.
9:06PM: BMG says Tsongas is up by 2100 votes with 147 of 196 precincts reporting.
9:02PM: With 96 of 195 precincts reporting, Tsongas is down 46%-51%.

Update: Results can be found here.  So far we’re at 59%-38% Tsongas, with only 6 of 195 precincts reporting.  Plenty of time for that lead to come back down to earth.

---

It’s decision day in MA-05, where voters are going to the polls to select a replacement for Democrat Marty Meehan in the House.  We’ll update this thread as developments occur.  Turnout has been described as “light”, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether that benefits Republican Jim Ogonowski or Democrat Niki Tsongas right now, but I’m a bit nervous.  Polls close at 8pm Eastern.

Since we still have time, let’s do a prediction contest.  (No prizes, though, other than honor and glory.)  Post your prediction for how the race will end up in the comments (percentages, please).  Remember that there are a few independent candidates in the fray, as well.

One final note, for now… I sincerely hope that this doesn’t turn out to be a microcosm for the broader campaign:

Jim Ogonowski may be a political newcomer, but the Republican has learned a thing or two during his first run for elective office.

Today, the final day before voters go to the polls in a special election to replace former Rep. Martin Meehan, Ogonowski sprinted up and down the line of cars waiting at a Dunkin’ Donuts drive-thru, seizing upon the captive audience – and open driver-side windows – to pass out campaign literature.

“Every vote counts,” the farmer and former Air Force lieutenant colonel told one driver. “We’re that close.”

Democrat Niki Tsongas, the other headliner in the race, employed a slightly less frenetic pace, visiting several senior centers and holding an ice cream social as she sought to claim for herself the House seat once held by her late husband and 1992 presidential contender, Paul Tsongas.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Yesterday was the deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their fundraising reports for the second quarter of 2007.  As promised, just like we did for the first and second quarters, we’ve amassed a list of noteworthy fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers.  While this list is seriously mega, it is not meant to be comprehensive.  If we’ve missed anything, please post the numbers in the comments.  And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding.  The second column shows cash-on-hand, and the third shows cycle-to-date fundraising.

Scroll buttons ready?  Away we go!

A few quick notes:

• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Richard Goddard (GA-08), Jim Ryun (KS-02), John Stephen (NH-01), Andrew Saul (NY-19), Chris Hackett (PA-10)* (Hackett is a little iffy — his total includes a $100K personal donation, as opposed to a loan.)
  
• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Darcy Burner (WA-08), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Charlie Stuart (FL-08), Nels Ackerson (IN-04), Andrew Duck (MD-06), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Linda Stender (NJ-07), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Steve Black (OH-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10), Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
  
• Republican incumbents who were out-raised by other Republicans: Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01), John Doolittle (CA-04)
  
• Democratic incumbents who were out-raised by other Democrats: Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10)
  
• MO-06 and WA-08: So get this.  Despite being the beneficiary of a high-profile fundraiser hosted by Republican Lord & Savior George W. Bush, Dave Reichert was out-hustled by Democrat Darcy Burner.  Compare Reichert’s haul with the total posted by Sam Graves, a Missouri Republican who received a fundraising visit from Dick Cheney.  Graves raised a very impressive $500K+ for the quarter.  I guess the President’s star power isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be anymore.
  
• WA-08: Oh, and speaking of Dave Reichert, check out his filing.  He posted an unusually large amount of contribution refunds: $47,100.  I wonder what the deal is there.
  
• Bills, bills, bills: Dig a little deeper into the filing of Alaska’s Don Young, whose expenses outweighed his receipts by a $200K margin.  What is he spending that money on?  $177,000 in legal bills to the DC law firm of Akin Gump might explain the incumbent’s diminishing (but still huge) cash-on-hand.  Will Thomas over at TPM has more in this vein.
  
• Anatomy of a Dud, Part II: Are Tim Walz and Zack Space the luckiest Dem freshmen sitting in districts that Bush carried?  Take a look at their hapless opponents, who are all posting extremely anemic fundraising numbers.
  
• VA-05 and IN-04: Where did Tom Perriello and Nels Ackerson come from?  Way to turn some heads — both candidates outraised their opponents in abbreviated fundraising quarters since announcing their House bids.
  
• MD-01: Is Wayne Gilchrest doomed?  It sure seems like Republicans are eager to make an example out of him for his support of Democratic efforts to end the war in Iraq.