In Ohio, the “Perfect Storm” just keeps rising

(crossposted to Dkos)

President Kennedy once invoked the old axiom that “a raising tide lifts all boats.”

He might have been thinking about the fortunes of Democrats in the State of Ohio. What an INCREDIBLE change since 2004, when Ohio, thanks in large part to “values voters” who turned out to support an idiotic Hate Amendment to the state Constitution, thereby returning the Shrub to the White House by 218,000 votes.

First came 2006: Sherrod Brown goes to the Senate and Ted Strickland leads a near sweep of statewide offices (notable exception: the state Supremes, now all neo-con.) But we only picked up one US House seat, by Zach Space, in OH-18.The GOP thinks that they can take Zach out. FAT CHANCE! Zach raised $274519.00 with $591905.47 Cash on Hand. It’s a VERY tough District but Zach can get the job done.

So let’s review how things are going heading into the US House elections. It’s pretty amazing. There are FOUR open seats, three by retirement, and one death. That’s out of a total of 18 Districts in the state.

And all of the open seats had been held by Republicans.

And unfortunately for the GOP, in OH-02, Mean Jean Schmidt DIDN’T decide to retire!

Folks,in the last several election cycles, it was not uncommon for Democratic Congressional challengers to raise so little money that they didn’t even have to file ANY reports (let alone quarterly.) Let’s take a gander at today’s FEC filings:(my how things have changed!!!!)

First things first, Robin Weirauch is already up and running for the OH-05 special election following the death of Paul Gillmor. She had her crew have been out working HARD. She has been endorsed by most of the county Democratic Party organizations and with the withdrawal of her only significant primary challenger, is overwhelmingly the presumptive nominee. (Because it’s a special election, the FEC reporting schedule is a little different.)

In OH-01, State House Minority leader Steve Dreihaus is taking on Rep Steve Chabot. Driehaus raised $120612.31 with $251011.77 CoH. Steve is a veteran campaigner who is going to run an excellent campaign.

In OH-07, GOP Rep. Dave Hobson has announced his retirement and the DCCC and ODP are working to recruit a top level candidate for the District.It’s very tough District but as an open seat, everything changes. Stay tuned!

In OH-14, former appellate Judge Bill O’Neill has set fundraising records for a Democrat in the District.His totals for his first quarter of fundraising:$102872.00 with $77976.74 on hand.

In OH-15, where Rep. Deb Pryce has decided not to run again, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Killroy raised $342423.64 this quarter, with $383659.05 CoH. So far, the GOP has gotten nothing but rejections for their attempts to find SOMEBODY to run for this seat, following Pryce’s decision not to run again.

In OH-16, where Ralph Regula FINALLY made his decision to retire public,  Air Force Major and State Senator John Boccieri was able to raise $118857.83 with $224847.24 CoH.

Once again, OHIO is clearly going to be the compelling story of this election cycle.

OH-07: Hobson Calls it Quits

Another one bites the dust.

Republican Rep. Dave Hobson announced his retirement today, just days before his 71st birthday:

Rep. David Hobson announced at 5 p.m. Sunday that he will retire at the end of this term. […]

He made his announcement at a birthday party surrounded by staff, former staff and community leaders.

Hobson’s exit makes him the third Ohio Republican in the House to call it quits (Deborah Pryce and Ralph Regula being the others), and the 12th in the nation.  His district, however, is fairly red — with a PVI of R+6, Bush carried it by a 57-43 margin over Kerry.  It will be a tough district for a Democrat to win, but the surging fortunes of Democrats in the state could spark an interesting race here with the right kind of candidate.

Remember, Democrat Zack Space pulled off a victory in an Ohio district that’s just as red last year.  Granted, his GOP opponent was deeply flawed, but who knows what kind of Club For Growth-style stooge the local GOP might spit out for us here.

Race Tracker: OH-07

(Hat-tip: Buckeye State Blog)

347 House Races filled and a poll!

Well 5 more districts now have candidates:
FL-05 – R+5,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NY-23 – R+0.2,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

347 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 114 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 114
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 63

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 22 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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AK-AL: Poll Shows Berkowitz With an Early Lead on Young

Big news out of Alaska: Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore shares a shocking new poll (PDF) with the Swing State Project that shows former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz with an early lead on scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51%
Don Young (R-inc.): 45.5%
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Wowza.  Could we be seeing the continuation of an anti-incumbent wave washing across the Last Frontier, which began with Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski’s landslide primary defeat to Sarah Palin in 2006?  With Alaskans growing increasingly frustrated with their representation in Washington, 2008 could be a banner year for change in the state.

Moore’s poll also shows Young with a 49.9% negative rating in the state (43.1% positive and 7% neutral) — something that I do not expect to improve for Young as the ethical and legal morass that is his too-cozy relationship with the overwhelmingly unpopular VECO corporation continues to grow.

Still, Young will be no pushover.  He is currently sitting on a massive warchest of over $1.6 million (although some of this is being eaten away by hefty legal fees), he has the state’s Republican tilt in his favor, and he’s held statewide office since Jesus invented the wheel.

There is also the possibility that Young could take one for the team and retire, or that he could fall in a primary to a fresh-faced Republican, such as state Rep. and current challenger Gabrielle LeDoux.  In such an event, Berkowitz could find himself twice unlucky: his Lt. Governor bid in 2006 fell short because Republicans had the sense to replace the unpopular Murkowski with the independent-minded Palin.

For now, though, it’s looking like Berkowitz picked the right time to run.

Race Tracker: AK-AL

Why Is This Blind Person Running for Congress?

Here is Dennis Shulman’s story about living as a blind man in a sighted world.

It’s a moving and honest account of his struggle to not only live with but transcend his disability.

And it’s about how and why his disability is leading him to the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2009.

To learn more about Dennis, check out Shulman for Congress.

Why Is This Blind Person Running for Congress?

Before I answer this question, I would like to first thank all the commentators for their interest in my disability and their questions about the obstacles I have faced.

I lost my vision gradually throughout my childhood so that, while I could still read large print when I was ten or eleven, I could not when I was thirteen. Using a cane became necessary in my junior year of high school.

By the time I went to college (Brandeis) and grad school (Harvard) I was totally blind.
I started at Brandeis in 1968. These were the pre-personal computer dark ages. For all people, the personal computer has radically changed their lives; for blind folks, this change is downright revolutionary.

In college and grad school, virtually all my reading was done by sighted readers. Little of the material was in Braille or recorded. When working on my review of the literature for my doctoral dissertation, I broke my own personal record-35 hours a week of sighted readers for the entire summer to read absolutely everything I could find on my dissertation topic. And then there was typing. I did my writing on an electric typewriter. (Does anyone out there remember the electric typewriter?) Well the problem with typewriters for a blind person is that, if you get a phone call or otherwise get distracted, how do you figure out where you left off? And then there was the worst day of my academic life when I typed an entire chapter for a grant I was leading involving alternatives to institutionalization for developmentally disabled adults when I did not realize the typewriter ribbon had slipped. When my colleague told me that the twenty-five pages I had just given him were totally blank, I finally really understood what a bad day was.

And then God created the personal computer.

Part of the reason I am running for congress in NJ-5 involves my blindness. As you can imagine or know, it is not easy to be blind or otherwise disabled in a sighted or able-bodied world. But there is a great benefit to being blind. I learned what it really means to struggle. I learned how to respect all people who are struggling-with the limits of their bodies or the limits of their income or the limits of their parents’ income or the limits that society places on them because of their gender or choice of love partner or immigration status or race.

In my own case-a poor kid, totally blind, in Worcester, Mass-there was no way in the world that I could have gone to Brandeis and Harvard without a great deal of family and community and government support. No way! And this also figures into my politics. The money the Massachusetts Commission for the Blind invested in my education has been paid back many times over by the taxes I have paid over the past 31 years of my being a clinical psychologist and rabbi. So don’t talk to me about how cutting programs that truly help people who are struggling cuts taxes. To truly cut taxes and help people who are struggling with their circumstances or the accident of their birth we are going to have to be sensible about the investments in people that we make. And here I am–a proud and grateful beneficiary of a far-sighted government program that actually invested in people.

I am acutely aware that my election to congress is, of course, not just about me. In January 2009, when I am sworn in as a congressman from my district, I will proudly join a very small but (hopefully) growing list of individuals with disabilities–from Max Cleland of Georgia to Thomas Gore of Oklahoma–who have served their country in the U.S. Congress. I promise to take this responsibility to represent, not only my district, but also all people with disabilities with great humility and seriousness.

Thursday Round-up

So many stories, so little time.  Let’s do some quick hits.

  • FL-24: Muck-encrusted Rep. Tom Feeney is going to face a major Democratic challenger next year: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.  Kosmas was recruited by the DCCC to run after internal polling showed her in a competitive race against Abramoff associate Feeney.  Glad to have this race filled.  I’m looking forward to taking this crumb-bum on, who recently derided the proposed S-CHIP expansion as a “budget-busting, Cuban-style health care plan”.  Your modern Republican Party in action, folks!
  • NM-Sen: Chuck Schumer and EMILY’s list are trying to recruit New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish to consider the Senate race.  Let’s hope Chuck can pull off another miracle here.
  • IL-11: So get this: two of the Republicans running to succeed scandal-plagued Jerry Weller don’t exactly look formidable out of the starting gate.  New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman gets the kiss of death by being endorsed by Weller, while Marguerite Murer, a former Bush Administration staffer who ran the Correspondence office for the president, has fun inflating her bio:

    With the civilian rank equivalent to a two-star general, Marguerite charged forward leading Correspondence with solid business principles. From the war on terror and securing our homeland, to Medicare, Supreme Court nominations and the devastating Hurricane Katrina, Marguerite has communicated with millions of Americans. (Emphasis added)

    What a laugh.

  • WA-08: Darcy Burner posts a big fundraising haul this quarter–$305K raised and $370K CoH, thanks in part to the netroots community during the Burn Bush effort this summer.
  • NM-01: The Democratic primary is getting a lot more crowded in this open seat race, with state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham formally entering the race today.  The retirement of Wilson has been a blessing and a curse for Martin Heinrich, who was previously seen as the front runner for the nomination.

OH-16: Regula Will Retire, GOP Sources Say

Yet another House Republican has come to the conclusion that being in the minority is a total bummer.  From Roll Call:

Republican sources confirmed Thursday that Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Ohio) will announce his retirement imminently, perhaps as soon as Friday. A Regula spokesman would not confirm the retirement announcement, saying the 18-term Congressman has made no such public announcement.

Regula has long been a prime candidate for retirement: he’s old, he doesn’t like being in the minority anymore, and he’s tired of the increasingly bitter atmosphere in DC.

Democrats feel good about making a hard run for Regula’s open seat, and they’ve already lined up a top recruit for the job: state Sen. John Boccieri, an Air Force vet who has served in Iraq.  This district has been trending Democratic since Bush carried it by a 53-42 margin in 2000.  Against John Kerry, Bush’s margin in the district narrowed to 54-46, and Democrats feel that Boccieri has the right profile to ride the Democratic trend and close the gap.

This will be a top tier race to watch.

UPDATE: Regula confirms it:

Longtime congressman Ralph Regula, whose years and power on the House Appropiations Committee made him a major player for northeast Ohio, confirmed to The Plain Dealer that he will not run for reelection next year.

“I will have been there for 36 years,” said Regula, 82, the dean of Ohio’s congressional delegation. “According to the Congressional Research Service, I am the longest continuously serving member ever in the history of Ohio.”

Race Tracker: OH-16

AK-AL: Berkowitz Will Run Against Don Young

Huge news out of Alaska: former Democratic State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz has announced that he will run against the muck-encrusted GOP Rep. Don Young.  Berkowitz, considered a rising star within the state party, served five terms in the state House from 1996-2006 and ran for Lt. Governor on the ticket led by Tony Knowles last year.  You can check out his campaign website here.

Berkowitz has been heavily courted by the DCCC to run for the seat, but his name has also been mentioned as a potential opponent to Internet guru and Senator Ted Stevens if Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich passed on that race.  This is a pretty big development, as Begich and Berkowitz have been in contact with each other during the past few months to co-ordinate their potential campaigns and each settle on a target (Stevens or Young).  With Berkowitz formally in the ring against Young, we can safely assume that it’s a Senate bid or nothing for Begich.

Berkowitz faces former Alaska Democratic Party Chairman Jake Metcalfe and 2006 nominee Diane Benson in the Democratic primary.

UPDATE: It looks like Young will have a primary opponent–state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a former Democrat.

Race Tracker: AK-AL

House 2008: Open Seat Watch (October)

Another month, another opportunity to round up all the retirements and open seats that may pop up in next year’s House elections. We have a few changes since our last installment in September, with the retirements of Republicans Jerry Weller (IL-11) and Terry Everett (AL-02), and the decision of GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) to run for the Senate. IL-11 and NM-01 stand to be top-tier pick up opportunities for Democrats, and Democrats are hoping that a strong candidate emerges to give Republicans a run for their money in the Alabama seat. (Paging Bobby Bright?) One development that may lift NRCC spirits is the possibility that Jim Ramstad (MN-03) will un-retire, putting a toss-up district into much safer territory for Republicans. For now, we’ll keep him on The List, with the appropriate question mark.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements







District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 71 Will retire
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Will resign
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-11 Weller R R+1.1 51 Retiring
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate
MN-03 Ramstad R R+0.5 62 Retiring (?)
MS-03 Pickering R R+14.1 45 Retiring
NM-01 Wilson R D+2.4 47 Running for Senate
OH-15 Pryce R R+1.1 57 Retiring

That adds up to 10 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. As the retirement trends from the 2005/2006 cycle suggest, there still is plenty of time for more House members to grab a life preserver and bail.

Potential House Retirements






































































































































































































District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25 McKeon R R+7.1 70 Speculation
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
CO-05 Lamborn R R+15.7 54 Primary challenge
CO-06 Tancredo R R+10 62 Undecided
CT-04 Shays R D+5.4 63 Threatening retirement
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Health issues
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Running for Governor
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NJ-03 Saxton R D+3.3 60 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 72 Rumors
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Speculation

Deletions from this list include Don Manzullo (IL-16), who filed to run again, and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01), who passed away from an ongoing battle with cancer on the weekend. I’ve added Tancredo and Lamborn in Colorado — both have questionable futures in the House. Another addition is Julia Carson, who returns to the list after being scratched last month. While she did announce her re-election, her poor health is increasingly becoming a major story in national and local media, and her fundraising has been beyond anemic. Unfortunately, I have little choice but to add her back to the watch list.

Babs Cubin is also staying on the list, despite saying recently that she “absolutely intends” to run again “at this point in time”. Uh-huh. “At this point in time” and “intend” in the same sentence is a huge retirement red flag. The same goes for New York Republican Jim McHugh, who put it a bit more strongly, but still left the door open for a vacancy by saying “at this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008”. Expectations have a funny habit of changing, and so does the mind of a congressman. He stays on the watch list.

Anyone else we should know about? Let us know in the comments.