Tag: House

Eric Black over at the Minnesota Monitor has the scoop: apparently, the NRCC is working fast and furious to convince retiring Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad to reverse his decision to retire… and, according to inside sources, Ramstad is seriously considering it.  And this decidedly non-Shermanesque statement from one of Ramstad’s aides leaves the door wide open for a change of heart:

“Jim has been overwhelmed by the huge number of Minnesotans urging him to reconsider, but he has no plans to run for re-election.”

“No plans” is legendary Washingtonspeak for “I haven’t made up my mind” or “I won’t tell you yet”.  It’s no surprise that the NRCC would make the effort to reverse Ramstad’s decision.  Without him on the ballot, Ramstad pushes what was once a safe seat into toss-up territory for the GOP, forcing national Republicans to spend precious resources defending the district that Bush carried by a narrow three point margin against Kerry in 2004.

And in an update, Eric Black writes that a second source believes that Republicans have a good shot at changing Ramstad’s mind:

A second and very reliable source, with insider knowledge of National Republican Congressional Committee efforts to get U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad to run for reelection next year, says the committee believes there’s a better than 50-50 chance Ramstad will do it.

Democrats have a strong contender in state Sen. Terri Bonoff, who reportedly raised $90K in about a week after jumping into the race.  Does Ramstad figure that she’ll withdraw her bid if he decides to run again?  If not, why on earth would he want to turn down retirement and face one of the more competitive races of his career?

Stay tuned.

Race Tracker: MN-03

It looks like Republicans are going to field another repeat candidate next fall: former Rep. Mike Sodrel will announce whether he’ll run against Democratic incumbent Baron Hill tomorrow, and a candidate doesn’t usually go through all this fuss unless they’re actually running:

  Mike Sodrel Will Announce His Decision

  When: 3:30pm on Tuesday, October 9th

  Where: Calumet Club
  1614 E. Spring Street
  New Albany, IN

  Please join us,

  David Buskill
  Chairman, Clark County Republican Party

If Sodrel is in, this would bring “rematch” to a whole new level — this would be the fourth time that he and Hill faced off against each other, with only the 2004 match-up being successful for Sodrel.

Race Tracker: IN-09

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

If you ever had the misfortune of being on being on the receiving end of an National Republican Congressional Committee media alert last cycle, you’ll know that they took special delight in mocking DCCC Chair Rahm Emmanuel for his supposed recruiting failures in key House races.  These press releases always were marked by the title “DCCC Delusions”.  Since the NRCC has had some notable difficulties in recruiting top-shelf challengers in a number of districts (OH-15, anyone?) this year, why don’t we tally up all the candidates who took a pass on efforts by the national and state Republican parties to recruit them into House races.

I’ve got a few so far, but I have a feeling that I’m just scratching the surface.  Post any additional recruitment failures in the comments section below, if you know of any.

AZ-01: Ex-state Sen. President Ken Bennett
CT-02: Former US Rep. Rob Simmons
FL-16: Former state Rep. and ’06 candidate Joe Negron
FL-22: Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Sen. Jeff Atwater
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff
FL-22: Palm Beach Co Commis. Mary McCarty
IL-11: State Sen. Christine Radogno
ME-01: State Sen. Jon Courtney
MN-01: Former US Rep. Gil Gutknecht
NC-11: State Sen. Tom Apodaca
NH-02: Former US Rep. Charlie Bass
NY-19: Former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer
OH-15: Former state AG Jim Petro
OH-15: Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka
OH-15: Former WBNS-TV anchor Dave Kaylor
OH-15: State Rep. Jon Husted
OH-15: State Rep. Jim Hughes
OH-15: State Sen. Steve Stivers
OH-15: Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes
PA-04: Former Pittsburgh Steeler and ’06 Gov Nominee Lynn Swann
PA-10: Former Deputy state AG Joe Peters
PA-10: U.S. Attorney Thomas A. Marino
TX-22: Sugarland Mayor David Wallace
TX-22: Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt
TX-22: State Rep. John Zerwas

Republicans have finally found a candidate to challenge frosh Democrat Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s 2nd District: former Army captain Chris Minor, who is currently a Blackwater contractor working in Iraq, is taking the plunge in the R+4.3 district.

I won’t comment in detail on Blackwater, whose reputation has taken a beating since several of its contractors engaged in a trigger-happy shooting exchange with Iraqi soldiers and civilians several weeks ago.

I will, however, seriously question a guy who says this:

Minor said he would like to replace Pelosi with Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., “the pride and joy of the conservative movement.”

Pence “lives and breathes Christian values we all respect,” said Minor, a retired U.S. Army captain who continues serving in Iraq as an intelligence analyst for the State Department.

Mike Pence?  The same guy who described the Shorja market in Baghdad as “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime”?  I guess in Indiana, a normal market in the summertime is guarded by 100 soldiers in humvees, sharpshooters on the rooftops, attack helicopters circling overhead, and all incoming traffic blocked by military personnel.

Seriously: Mike Pence?  I shudder to imagine a House under his speakership.  It’s no wonder that someone who would like to follow in his footsteps would give a reality-challenged soundbite like this one:

“Our country’s at war right now,” said Minor, explaining why he is running. “Unfortunately, the majority of America has forgotten about why we’re there, who attacked us, how we were attacked, the nature of the attack.”

Minor said it is time for Americans to reawaken to the fact that “we are threatened” and that there is a scourge “that wants nothing more than to destroy us.”

Um, do you really want to have a conversation about the facts, Chris?  I’d love to hear his wild-eyed theory on how Saddam aided and abetted the 9/11 hijackers.  While we’re at it, someone should ask him if he agrees that Iraq resembles Indiana in the summertime.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-02

John Unger is no longer the only Democratic candidate with eyes on Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R-WV02) seat in Congress. A small advertisement in a West Virginia newspaper today strongly hints at the candidacy of Thornton Cooper, a Charleston-area attorney and retired public employee.  This should be an interesting race to observe in the coming months.

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

National Democrats have exactly three targets in New Jersey that they would like to seriously contest: Mike Ferguson (7th District), Jim Saxton (3rd District), and Frank LoBiondo (2nd District).  In two of those three races, the DCCC has their preferred candidates: state Rep. Linda Stender is in for a rematch against Ferguson, and state Sen. Jim Adler is taking on Saxton.  If state Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew entered the race against Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo, he would complete the trifecta.  The only problem?  Van Drew is currently locked in a tooth-and-nail campaign against Republican state Sen. Nicholas Asselta, and he has to win that race first before thinking of another promotion.

Van Drew didn’t do much to quiet the speculation today, as he played it coy on the question of a potential 2008 congressional campaign:

“What I’ve made clear is there’s only one thing on my mind now, and that is winning the State Senate seat in the first legislative district,” said Van Drew. “I have a lot of my plate and that’s all I’m thinking about. And that’s all I’m going to comment.”

That non-committal response is in stark contrast to his campaign’s official line last month:

“He’s not running for Congress. He’s got way too much on his plate right now,” said Allison Murphy, who is managing Van Drew’s campaign to oust Asselta. “I can safely say he’s not running next year, but maybe sometime soon.”

Unsurprisingly, Asselta is slamming Van Drew for the statement.

LoBiondo would be a tough foe to beat.  His campaign coffers are flush with over $1.5 million on hand and he has always dominated his district by wide margins.  Not in his favor, however, is the following fact about his district: its PVI is D+4.  While Kerry actually lost the district by one point in 2004, Gore carried it by a healthy 11 point margin in 2000.  Rather than changing demographics, we saw a 9/11 bounce for Bush that was pronounced throughout New Jersey.  And, if the Republican presidential nominee is anyone other than Rudy Giuliani, I expect those top-of-the-ticket numbers to return to their 2000 level.  If Democrats and progressives hope to expand their caucus, this is exactly the kind of seat they should be targeting.

We’ll just have to wait and see if Van Drew can win his state Senate race this fall before we know who LoBiondo will line up against.

Race Tracker: NJ-02

Eric Eidsness, the Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat who scored 11% of the vote on the third party line against Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2006, has dropped out of the Democratic primary:

“The hand writing is on the wall and I see it is not my time to be elected to national office to represent (Colorado’s 4th Congressional District),” Eidsness said in a prepared statement. “While my populist message appeals to a broad range of voters, particularly in the more rural areas, I do not have the support I will need here in Larimer County to win the Democratic nomination.”

Eidsness’ announcement comes hot on the heels of ’06 Democratic candidate Angie Paccione’s decision to drop out.  With Eidsness and Paccione out, the field is now clear for Betsy Markey.

Contrary to what Chris Cillizza may believe, I would not rank Colorado’s 4th in the top ten competitive House races of 2008.  Part of that may be the lack of a top tier challenger (it remains to be seen whether Markey can bring the noise, even if she has credible connections), but Musgrave’s chances are helped by her decision to tone down her obsession with socially regressive causes (publicly, at least), and the tilt-red nature of the district (Bush won it by 17 points in 2004).  That’s not to say that I don’t think this race will be competitive, or that the potential for a Markey upset isn’t there, but I feel that our clearest shot at this district passed us by last November.

(H/T: ColoradoPols)

While we're still waiting for an official announcement, sources close to Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson say she's decided to seek the seat currently held by Republican Jerry Weller. Halvorson has been heavily recruited over the past few weeks by the DCCC and EMILY's List.

Update: Politico has the details: 

In a big recruiting coup for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) has decided to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.).

“She sees this as a historic time in Washington, and she wants to be a part of it,” said one Democratic operative familiar with her decision. “She wants to bring the things she accomplished in Illinois to Washington.”

However, just last night the Politico was reporting that a Halvorson run was unlikely. Their source was an Illinois Democratic operative who was only able to parrot Halvorson's own comments on the matter.

Compare Politico's “Illinois Democratic operative” (October 1):

It’s hard to be one of 435 when you can be the first woman state Senate president in Illinois

to Debbie Halvorson herself (September 19):

I don't know if I want to be one person out of 435. Compared to, possibly, being the first-ever woman Senate president, I don't know. It's a big decision.

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-45 – R+3,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-10 – R+15,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

342 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 109 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 109
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 23
Districts without any candidates – 67

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
IL-18 – R+5.5,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington. Thats 21 states with a full slate, and 7 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***