Tag: OH-16

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

The drumbeat about where Ohio State Senator Major John Bocceri lives started in the Democratic Primary Race for the United States House of Representative for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. It was the only plank his Democratic Primary opponent could find to use against him and it didn’t stick. The Major won by nearly a 2-1 margin in all four counties of the 16th, Ashland, Medina, Stark and Wayne, in the March 4th Primary.

As if by some stroke of political genius, this drumbeat was supposed to stick through November as the big isssue. And, almost like a Rovellian tantric chant, it seems to keep popping up. John was actually hoping that “the carpetbagger” issue would remain a central theme to the campaign against him. The Major’s response to the issue has never changed:

“They are worried about where I lay my head down on the pillow at night, but I’m more worried about where people go to work in the morning.”

How historically hypocritical can they get? That would be a thing of beauty coming from a Republican opponent, but it seems the Democratic constituency in Ohio’s Fighting 16th are a more sophisticated voter than that!

So, without further adieu, thank you, GARY SCHERER of PERRY TOWNSHIP, you make this writer’s job so easy! He said:

But all that aside, let’s look at the final authority on this matter, the U.S. Constitution, which states in Article 1, Section 2, on the House of Representatives:

“No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years and been seven years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.”

As you can see, there is no requirement that a member of the House reside in the district he or she represents, only the state. And since Sen. Boccieri lives in Ohio – except when he has been called upon to serve in Iraq, which he has done numerous times – the residency issue appears to be a dead one.

Man, that just about makes me giddy! I swear I’ve already read that four or five times before I posted it. That draws on a huge distinction between the Democratic voter and the Republican voter in a generic comparison. It is this writer’s experience, Democratic voters tend to be logically issue driven and Republican voters tend to be passionately value driven. The smoke screen quietly drifts away into oblivion.

Over this past weekend, volunteers spread out across Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. Before it was over with they had knocked on some 500 doors talking to potential voters about State Senator Major John Bocccieri and the issues that are most important here; jobs and the economy, the War in Iraq, Health care, gas prices, the rising cost of groceries, and home heating/cooling prices.

In a bit of irony, the John Boccieri for U.S. Congress campaign won the “Most Patriotic” award for our entry in the Bethlehem Township parade. We had a decorated Ford truck and handed out flags. John walked in the parade with about five or six staff members and supporters. This is Ralph Regula’s home area. Pretty cool, indeed!

So, I sit here somewhat stymied after all of this exercise. A series of questions keep rolling through my mind. What do you want to debate Senator Schuring? The War in Iraq and The 100 year McCain Doctrine? The 21st Century GI Bill? Making immediate use of alternative energy solutions? Creating and keeping jobs in the 16th Congressional District? Health care for every child, woman or man in the 16th District? The outrageous cost of fuel at the pump? How about the Mortgage Crisis? Constitutionally funding our childrens education? It’s time to start speaking up; November 4th is closer than you think!

(HT: Ian & Chris)

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

Senator John Boccieri salutes troops and military families in national Democratic radio address for Memorial Day

State Senator John Boccieri, a Major in the United States Air Force Reserve and C-130 aircraft pilot as well as a candidate for Congress in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, will deliver the national Democratic radio address for Memorial Day on Saturday, May 24 at approximately 11:05AM.

Boccieri has served in the Reserve for 13 years and was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan on four rotations during Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom.

In his address, John reflects on the solemn holiday and the service and sacrifices made by our soldiers and military families. He also calls upon leaders in Washington to change direction on policies effecting our economy, jobs, veterans, health care, and Iraq to put America and our middle class families first again.

Visit http://www.johnforcongress.com/ for the audio.

The complete transcript is attached below.

Transcript of Radio Address:

Good morning. My name is John Boccieri and I’m a state Senator from Ohio who’s running for Congress in the 16th District. I’m also a Major, Aircraft Commander, and C-130 pilot in the U.S. Air Force Reserve. And, I’ve proudly served our nation while flying missions in Iraq and Afghanistan during Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom.

During those four deployments, I airlifted wounded and fallen soldiers from Baghdad. I ask you to join me this Memorial Day as we salute our soldiers’ duty, sacrifice and commitment for our country. Whether we agree with this war or not, we must thank the families of our soldiers’ for their sacrifices here at home, and remember the great honor American soldiers bestow upon our country by placing themselves in harm’s way.

While our brave soldiers honor America by standing up and fighting for us around the globe, we must honor them by standing up and fighting for them here at home. The best way to honor their service and sacrifice is to ensure they have the benefits they deserve and the resources they need to succeed when they come home.

If our veterans want to go to college, they should be able to do so the minute their boots hit the ground. I applaud leaders in Washington for passing the bipartisan 21st Century G.I. Bill to give today’s new veterans the same educational benefits as our World War II veterans.

Sadly, President Bush has threatened to veto the bill. Senator John McCain, who hopes to take his place, not only opposed it, but when given the opportunity to support his fellow veterans on the eve of Memorial Day weekend, didn’t even show up to vote nor express his concerns. Our veterans need to know that leaders in Washington have their back, and vetoing this measure will send a clear message that politics has defeated patriotism.

And while our soldiers fight abroad, their friends and families are fighting for economic relief here at home. As we spend billions on the war, hardworking middle class Americans are losing their jobs, paying more for food and gas, and going without health care.American families are frustrated with unfair trade agreements that have cost Americans tens of thousands of good paying jobs. We need a change so that our troops can return to a robust and vibrant economy.

I am running for Congress to be a voice for change in Ohio and for our country. In the state legislature, I fought to create the Military Injury Relief Fund that helps injured soldiers transition back into civilian life and assists them with medical expenses. I’ve also fought hard to make sure National Guard and Reserve troops come home to their jobs when they return from battle.

I’ve witnessed first-hand the human costs of this war, and in 2005, I had the privilege of flying Senator McCain from Baghdad after visiting with the troops. We both saw the same situation on the ground; and I respectfully disagree with Senator McCain’s approach to Iraq. I can’t see how we can sustain a presence in Iraq for 100 years.

We need strong leaders in Washington who will bring our troops home from Iraq safely, honorably and soon. Neither President Bush nor John McCain has offered an exit strategy.

While the Iraq war is costing us greatly in human terms, the money American taxpayers are pouring into that country is staggering. We’re spending more than $10 billion a month on the war while the quality of life for millions of Americans goes from bad to worse. We’re building brand new roads and bridges, and schools in Iraq when we need the same things right here in Ohio and in communities across our country.

Millions in America live without adequate health care coverage yet our government has paid the bill to cover every Iraqi man, woman, and child. We can’t afford four more years of the same failed policies.

It will take new leadership to bring real change to Washington.

We need a president and a Congress who will take care of our veterans and find a responsible way to leave Iraq so that we can invest in the American people and in American jobs.

We’re proud of our troops fighting for us abroad. Let’s make them proud of us by fighting for them here at home. They deserve nothing less.

I’m John Boccieri. I wish you and your family a blessed Memorial Day weekend. Thank you for listening.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for US Congress:

A very Happy Memorial Day Weekend from State Senator Major John Boccieri and Governor Ted Strickland!!!

The word coming out of Columbus, Ohio, in the Tribune Chronicle for the passage of his vets bill “just in time for Memorial Day.” Ian Walton, Campaign Manager, John Boccieri for US Congress has confirmed:

Huge News! The Veteran’s Bill Sponsored by John has just been signed by the Governor.

According to the Tribune Chronicle:

Just in time for the Memorial Day weekend, the Ohio Senate approved a bill designed to streamline veterans programs and make sure reservists don’t lose their jobs when they are deployed overseas.The bill creates a Department of Veterans Services that consolidates existing programs under its director.

Last May, Gov. Ted Strickland formed a council to study what would be needed to create the new cabinet level post. At the time Strickland said his executive order:

…lays the foundation to ensure Ohio’s veterans and their families will always have a strong voice in state government.

State Senator Major John Boccieri, a member of the council that crafted the legislation said:

The group worked on it all summer to make sure we did this right for our veterans.

He was the sponsor of the provision to help protect reservists and National Guard members who come back to Ohio and find their old job is gone. Federal law already required employers to rehire the troops in their old jobs at the old pay rate.

Boccieri said 99 percent of employers do just that. But he said a growing number of soldiers are returning home from war to find their jobs are gone.The only recourse soldiers have now is through the federal courts, where it can take two to three years to resolve the dispute.

Often veterans walk away from the fight. What veteran can afford to fight for years for their job in federal court while needing to put bread on their family’s table?

The Major, who served four tours of duty as a C-130 Hercules Commander, said:

The bill is a first step in honoring veterans. SB 176 puts the job guarantee into state law, allows veterans to seek relief in state courts and it requires judges hear those cases first. The new law should resolve job disputes in a matter of months.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

Ohio State Senator John Boccieri has served and served well. Now, John wants you to bring General Wes Clark to work side-by-side in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. WesPAC was among the first to endorse the Major and unlike the “non-Endorsements” garnering national spot-light this one is real and standing!

Today, the WesPAC and Democrats Work communities are launching a contest to determine which Congressional District I am going to visit this summer.

This won’t be an ordinary visit. I will travel to one Congressional District where a Democratic challenger is fighting to change the direction of our country to work side-by-side with area Democrats to make a positive impact through community service. We want you to tell us where we should put our values into action.

In a post last week, OH-16: State Senator John Boccieri: AG Dann should resign immediately State Senator John Boccieri expressed his “outrage” over the the behavior of Attorney General Marc Dann. On May 6, 2008, Senator Boccieri stated:

“I am outraged that the Attorney General of the state of Ohio has neglected the duty and honor of public service,” Senator Boccieri said. “The cronyism and lack of attentiveness to protocol and detail in Attorney General Dann’s hiring practices has led us to this tragic moment in Ohio’s history. I feel for his wife Alyssa and his children, who must endure the embarrassment he has caused to them, and the people of the state of Ohio.

“We support the ongoing investigation to determine whether any criminal lines have been crossed. However, after combing through the sordid details of the investigation transcripts, it is clear that ethical and moral lines have been disregarded. For this reason, I call upon Marc Dann to resign immediately.”

I was proud of Senator Boccieri for being thorough, reading the transcripts, and getting the facts straight before jumping to any conclusions. After he was sure of the facts, he made his initial call for Dann to resign immediately. Over the course of the week, Dann has tried every play in the book to avoid resignation, even while knowing the “dirt” would continue to pile up on the entire office and staff. Boccieri was chided for being slow to jump on the “Dann Bandwagon”, but was simply applying a reasonable fact checking methodology.

Today, May 13, 2008, just one week later, State Senator John Boccieri, candidate in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, issued the following statement from his Senate office today:

“I fully support the actions taken by both the Ohio House and Senate today. As I have said before, Marc Dann cannot continue as Attorney General of the State of Ohio. It was my hope last week that he would recognize that reality, resign the office, and bring this shameful ordeal to an end. Because that has not yet happened, members of the Ohio House today brought articles of impeachment against Marc Dann, an action with which I agree completely.

“Also today, a motion was introduced to initiate an Inspector General’s investigation of the Attorney General’s office. I support that move also, and I would urge the Inspector General’s office to be swift and judicious in their work. A lengthy investigation will benefit no one – least of all the citizens of this state.

“As I have previously stated, I am outraged and disappointed by Marc Dann’s behavior. I am dismayed that he has refused thus far to resign his office and accept the findings of an Inspector General’s investigation. Marc Dann has again chosen to do the wrong thing and is attempting to negotiate the details of his departure. Marc Dann should be given absolutely no latitude to negotiate a more favorable exit from office on the heels of his admitted wrongdoing.

“It is my sincere hope that either through resignation or impeachment, this sordid episode will be concluded quickly, allowing us to move forward with the important business of the state. There is too much work to be done in Ohio for us to be distracted by such scandals. I look forward to working with my colleagues in the legislature and our statewide elected officials as we move forward with the people’s business.”

At every turn, State Senator John Boccieri has shown the deliberate pragmatism of true leadership through thorough examination of the available facts and his strong desire to do the bidding of his constituency even in the face of adversity. State Senator John Boccieri shows the thoughtful leadership skills the electorate of Ohio’s 16th Congressional District deserve to have represent them in the House of Representatives in Washington, D.C. Our District is fortunate to have State Senator Major John Boccieri offer his service at the next higher level of representation.  

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

We’ve had a great response from our friends and supporters so far, but tomorrow is the last to vote in Russ Feingold’s Progressive Patriots Fund’s “Pick A Patriot”.Major Boccieri is one of only ten Congressional candidates selected for the Pick a Patriot competition. So, please, if you haven’t already, take a minute to vote for John on the Progressive Patriots Fund’s “Pick a Progressive Patriot” site.

If you voted earlier this week, send a note to your friends and family – ask them to cast their vote too. The Progressive Patriots Fund is the leadership committee set-up by Senator Russ Feingold to promote a progressive reform agenda, and to support Democratic candidates across the country.

Thanks again for supporting Major Boccieri in the Progressive Patriot competition. These are the latest RESULTS!





I want to thank Butch, Brian, and Diane for all pulling together on my Birthday Wish for Bo! C’mon OH-16 get “The Boots on the Ground”!

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

This whole Attorney General Marc Dann situation gets harder and harder to stomach with each passing day. I’m glad this statement hit my desk before I read it somewhere else.

State Senator John Boccieri: Attorney General Marc Dann should resign Immediately

Today State Senator John Boccieri, Democratic candidate in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, called for Attorney General Marc Dann to resign from office:

“I am outraged that the Attorney General of the state of Ohio has neglected the duty and honor of public service,” Senator Boccieri said. “The cronyism and lack of attentiveness to protocol and detail in Attorney General Dann’s hiring practices has led us to this tragic moment in Ohio’s history. I feel for his wife Alyssa and his children, who must endure the embarrassment he has caused to them, and the people of the state of Ohio.

“We support the ongoing investigation to determine whether any criminal lines have been crossed. However, after combing through the sordid details of the investigation transcripts, it is clear that ethical and moral lines have been disregarded. For this reason, I call upon Marc Dann to resign immediately.”

Ohio has been subjected to statement after statement from Dann defending his staff and himself. As a “reasonable person”, and that will matter. I have stand with Senator John Boccieri on this whole case…It is what it is! One doesn’t comb transcripts and walk away with some false sense of reality. Personally, I think Ohio’s 16th Congressional District Democratic Candidate State Senator Major John Boccieri has done the smart thing…he held back and read the facts before coming to a conclusion and he has distanced himself from the epicenter of the after-shocks yet to come.

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

Weather Does Not Dampen Will of Ohio’s Fighting 16th Congressional District!

I had the opportunity to catch up with Ian Walton, Campaign Manager for John Boccieri for Congress, this afternoon. Mother nature wasn’t very cooperative with rain showers, wind gusts, and unusually cool temperatures, but that doesn’t stop “The Boccieri Corps” here in the fighting 16th District!

Ian reported, here, to “The Out-Post”:

It’s encouraging to know that supporters for the Major are anxious and ready to mobilize whether rain or shine!

Ohio’ 16th Congressional District covers Stark, Wayne, part of Ashland, and part of Medina counties. We have a unique district in the fact that it lies across two old rail lines and the canal system of past generations. The economics range from the displaced middle-class factory workers, to rural family farmers, and urban center-city workers.

Ian went on to add:

The weather didn’t keep us from reaching out and talking with voters about John’s message for change in every corner of the district.

And, State Senator Major John Boccieri’s message bears repeating often as Ohio’s 16th Congressional District becomes a “poster child” for what has gone wrong through the actions of the Bush Administration.

• We still see our brave men and women serving in the Armed Forces, and in harms way, being injured and killed. It’s clear after 5 years of civil war we need to bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon.

• Once those soldiers return we must give them everything they need from health care to education.

• We need strong leadership that will bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon. The war in Iraq is costing Americans $12 billion a month, and the cost to our troops and their families is incalculable. Not expending $12 billion a month on the war would enable us to meet our obligations to our troops when they return, including the long-term health care so many will require as a result of their injuries.

• Bad trade deals have devastated the 16th Congressional District, shipping thousands of good paying jobs overseas. It’s time to vote ‘no’ on trade policies that take away Ohio’s workers’ ability to compete fairly in the global market and trade deals that don’t protect the environment or workers’ rights.

• Hundreds of families in our area don’t have health insurance. The families of the 16th Congressional District deserve a leader in Washington who will put their needs first and accomplish an expansion of affordable health care to more Ohioans.

• The cost of fuel is crippling our economy as our families confront choices between putting gas in their cars and other necessities. It’s time for a change to an energy policy that puts families’ needs before big oil profits. We need to invest in alternative and renewable energy, investments that would help create good jobs and sustainable economic growth and lessen our dependence on foreign oil.

Nothing is going to stop the momentum this campaign is building, and building fast. There is a strong eager core willing to work tirelessly to make sure State Senator Boccieri wins Ohio’s 16th Congressional District in November.

Ian had the bottom line, today:

We had troops out participating in various activities supporting Major Boccieri in all four counties in the 16th Congressional District today.

John Boccieri has “Boots on the Ground!

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress

I love days like today…a blogger’s dream! The campaign just pounded so much Mojo at me today I had turn it into a major round-up. It’s a quite fitting run of “Ground Mobilization” by our candidate, the Ohio State Senator Major John Boccieri. Boots on the ground! It’s time to rock Ohio’s 16th Congressional District out of the tired funk from “The Hillary, Barack, McCain Diary Train”. Get ready for the battle brewing here in Northeast Ohio!

Out of Headquarters…Ground Mobilization!

Greetings Friends,

Efforts are already picking up in the 16th Congressional District to get the word out about Major John Boccieri and the Democratic Ticket.

On Saturday, May 3rd, Neighborhood Leaders and volunteers from across the state will engage in the first of many canvass days dedicated to talking directly with voters about the importance of electing Major Boccieri and the Democratic Ticket in this year’s election.

The morning starts with a statewide conference call and strategy session, featuring ODP Chairman Redfern and other special guests. Please make the commitment to join with us on May 3rd – you can organize a group of people to work together, or, if you prefer, materials will be available in advance at Boccieri HQ so you can canvass during the week.

The statewide goal is to knock on 10,000 doors on May 3rd – and we want to add as many doors to that total as we can. Every door we knock on means that more of our neighbors will hear about Major Boccieri and his message to change direction in Congress.

We hope you will be able to join us in this important effort Saturday.

Here are the details:

Goal: Knock on 10,000 doors statewide

When: Saturday, May 3rd, 10:00 AM

Where: Boccieri for Congress HQ, The Metropolitan Center, 601 Cleveland Ave., N.W.,

Canton Conference Call Time: 10:30 AM

Call in Number: (800) 394-7217, Pass Code 813 789 1547

Organizer: Megan Joyce, ODP NE OH Field Rep., 330-285-8745; megan@ohiodems.org

Please RSVP to Megan Joyce at 330-285-8745 or megan@ohiodems.org.

Thanks again for your support. We look forward to seeing you Saturday!

Ian Walton

Boccieri for Congress

John Boccieri for Congress

Campaign Headquarters

The Metropolitan Center

601 Cleveland Ave., NW

(corner of 6th & Cleveland)Downtown Canton

(330) 754-0534

Visit our website for more information on how you can help change direction in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District.

— Paid for by John Boccieri for Congress —

Five years after “Mission Accomplished”,” many other missions left unaccomplished

State Sen. John Boccieri, Democratic candidate for Congress in the 16th Congressional District, issued the following statement on the fifth anniversary of President Bush’s declaration of ‘Mission Accomplished:

State Senator Major John Boccieri said:

“Five years after President Bush declared ‘Mission Accomplished’ and an end to combat operations in Iraq, we find many things left unaccomplished in Washington.”

We still see our brave men and women serving in the Armed Forces, and in harms way, being injured and killed. It’s clear after 5 years of civil war we need to bring our troops home safely,honorably and soon.

Once those soldiers return we must give them everything they need from healt hcare to education.

We need strong leadership that will bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon. The war in Iraq is costing Americans $12 billion a month, and the cost to our troops and their families is incalculable. Not expending $12 billion a month on the war would enable us to meet our obligations to our troops when they return, including the long-term health care so many will require as a result of their injuries.

Bad trade deals have devastated the 16th Congressional District, shipping thousands of good paying jobs overseas. It’s time to vote ‘no’ on trade policies that take away Ohio’s workers’ ability to compete fairly in the global market and trade deals that don’t protect the environment or workers’ rights

Hundreds of families in our area don’t have health insurance. The families of the 16th Congressional District deserve a leader in Washington who will put their needs first and accomplish an expansion of affordable health care to more Ohioans.

The cost of fuel is crippling our economy as our families confront choices between putting gas in their cars and other necessities. It’s time for a change to an energy policy that puts families’ needs before big oil profits. We need to invest in alternative and renewable energy, investments that would help create good jobs and sustainable economic growth and lessen our dependence on foreign oil.

Bocieri laid it out like he always does:

“Throughout the 16th Congressional District, families are hurting! The cost of everything is skyrocketing, and our families feel like no one hears their calls for change. It’s clearly time for a new direction and leadership with a new vision. Our families literally cannot afford to wait any longer!”

I’ll tell you what if that’s not enough to get your blood pumping; I caught more information coming out of the Boccieri Headquarters!

OH-16: State Senator Major John Boccieri for U.S. Congress…

Fighting for his constituency, everyday!

Boccieri applauds Energy bill for stabilizing prices, emphasizing renewable and alternative sources

State Senator John Boccieri and candidate for Congress in Ohio’s 16th District today applauded Governor Ted Strickland’s signing of Senate Bill 221, Ohio’s energy bill.

Boccieri was one of several Senate co-sponsors of the energy bill, which ensures stable, reliable electricity prices and sets principles to make Ohio a leader in renewable and alternative sources of energy.

Boccieri let his voice be heard, again:

Northeast Ohio companies and manufacturers use a lot of energy, and access to reliable and affordable electricity will allow them to remain competitive and successful. Without this energy bill, we would have faced skyrocketing electricity prices that would have financially strapped Ohio families and cost our state jobs.”

Boccieri also voiced his support for a bill introduced by U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown on Wednesday that would invest $36 billion over five years in green energy manufacturing and the use of new energy technologies in Ohio and across the United States.

Speaking of Senator Brown’s efforts State Sen. Boccieri said:

“Senator Brown’s energy plan has the potential to greatly impact Ohio with our large energy consumption and manufacturing base. Senator Brown’s proposed plan, coupled with Ohio’s energy bill, represents the kind of forward-thinking that our country needs to regain our energy independence and keep and create jobs in America.

With a skilled manufacturing workforce already in place, Northeast Ohio could be a leader in Ohio’s renewable energy efforts.”

Leading by example, Boccieri’s campaign headquarters is the first LEED-certified building in Canton. The headquarters, located at the corner of 6th and Cleveland, uses geothermal heating and solar energy.

John Boccieri added to his statement of support:

“In Washington, I will work to make long-term changes in our energy policy and tackle the sky-high fuel and energy prices which the Bush Administration failed to address.I’m committed to leading efforts in Congress that make Ohio – and America – more energy independent, while also increasing our use of alternative and renewable energies.”

I know that is a factual statement! Ohio State Senator John Boccieri and I have been talking for sometime about the great opportunities just inside the 16th District boundaries, not to mention, feasible nationwide programs in alternative energy sources. This is THE guy to have in the “Mix”!

Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.

Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but  the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their “Red to Blue” program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.

Republican-Held Seats

Tier One: Toss-Up

15th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and west and northwest suburbs, Hilliard, Marysville). Cook PVI R+1.1. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) defeated Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by just over 1,000 votes. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 62.1% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) is running almost like an incumbent after her photo finish in 2006 and the retirement of her opponent. She has raised an impressive amount of money and has strong support from labor, womens’ groups (including Emily’s List) and among students, who are very numerous in this district. She is an energetic campaigner although not the most polished of public speakers. Opponent State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington), an Iraq veteran and former bank lobbyist, is a strong adversary with big support from the business community. Independent candidate Don Elijah Eckhart (I-Galloway) figures to take a few votes away from Stivers.

16th District NE Ohio (includes Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Wadsworth, Medina, Wooster, Ashland). Cook PVI R+3.6. Bush won 54% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Ralph Regula (R), who is retiring, fared poorly in the GOP primary (58% to 43% over conservative Matt Miller (R-Ashland)) and defeated political novice Rev. Tom Shaw (D-Wooster) by the surprisingly narrow margin of 59% to 41% in the general election. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.8% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Iraq veteran and former collegiate baseball star State Sen. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown) is a terrific candidate and is adored in his state legislative district. This congressional district unfortunately includes only a tiny slice of his home turf, but Boccieri is working very hard to build name recognition here and he has the energy and political talent to make it work. Opponent State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R-Canton), a moderate, is strong in vote-rich Stark County but barely escaped a three-way primary against two more conservative opponents. The keys to this election are whether the Republican base turns out for Schuring and whether Boccieri can hold down Schuring’s advantage in blue-trending Stark County while gaining big vote totals elsewhere.

Tier Two: Leans Republican

1st District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and western suburbs). Cook PVI R+1. Bush won 50% of the vote in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Steve Chabot (R) defeated second-time challenger Councilman John Cranley (D) by 53% to 47%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 55.4% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Westwood) defied pundits and polls by holding off a hard-charging challenger last cycle. State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill) is thought to be a stronger opponent because his base is in the suburbs rather than the city, and like Cranley before him he has moderate-to-conservative positions on social issues that should have cross-over appeal in this swing district. Chabot was the target of independent attack ads over his votes against expanding SCHIP during the past year. Independent Rich Stevenson (I) is also in the race.

2nd District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and eastern suburbs, Lebanon, Portsmouth). Cook PVI R+13. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) defeated Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D) by less than 3,000 votes (51% to 49%) in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 57.2% Democratic.

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) has embarrassed herself on the floor of the House with her assault on Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) and by plagiarism in a constituent newsletter and exaggerating her credentials, but she is probably in a stronger position now than 2006 because she has completed a full term in office. Dr. Victoria Wells Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) emerged victorious from a bruising primary in which she endured withering (and unsubstantiated) attacks on her medical ethics. Wulsin takes heart from having outgained Schmidt in their respective primaries (54,965 to 40,891) and from having gained more Democratic votes and coming closer to winning in 2006 than any previous Democratic candidate since 1980. She is an experienced campaigner after two previous outings. Independent David Krikorian (I) is reportedly gathering signatures to join the race.

Tier Three: Likely Republican

14th District NE Ohio (includes northeast suburbs of Akron, Willoughby, Mentor, Ashtabula). Cook PVI R+2. Bush won 52% in 2004. Incumbent Steve LaTourette (R) defeated law professor Lew Katz (D) by 58% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 64.9% Democratic.

Rep. Steven LaTourette (R-Chagrin Falls) has his toughest opponent since he defeated incumbent Eric Fingerhut (D) 14 years ago. Vietnam veteran and former appellate judge William O’Neill (D-South Russell) has good name recognition from his appellate judicial races and 2006 Ohio Supreme Court bid, has raised serious money (although he is still far behind LaTourette), and has a direct, plain-spoken personality (softened by his remarkable second career as a pediatric ER nurse) that should serve him well in this suburban-to-rural swing district. LaTourette’s biggest assets have been his ability to bring home federal dollars, which is blunted by being in the minority, and his reputation as a moderate, which is questionable. LaTourette is somewhat tainted by links to Jack Abramoff and Bob Ney, breaking a promise to vote against CAFTA, and his divorce and affair with a staffer whom he latter married. Unfortunately O’Neill underwent heart bypass surgery recently that will slow him down for another month or so, but he is a determined and formidable candidate who could elevate this to a top tier race.

Tier Four: High Probability Republican

7th District. South Central Ohio (includes southwest suburbs of Columbus, Lancaster, Xenia, Circleville, Springfield). Cook PVI R+6.0. Bush won 57% in 2004. Retiring incumbent Dave Hobson defeated repeat challenger Bill Conner (D) by 61% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 52.9% Democratic.

This race has upside potential because it is an open seat. Corporate attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) emerged from a six-way primary through hard work and a skillful direct mailing campaign. She is a first-time candidate but she has displayed excellent potential for fund-raising, has brought aboard first-rate campaign staff, and is dedicated to taking the necessary steps to run a seriously competitive campaign. I am hoping that she will work on displaying more passion in her public speaking, which on the occasion I heard her was somewhat low-key. State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) is photogenic and has the support of the incumbent but hasn’t particularly distinguished himself as a state legislator.

3rd District. SW Ohio (includes Dayton and southern suburbs, Kettering, Miamisburg). Cook PVI R+3. Bush won 54% in 2004. Incumbent Michael Turner (R) defeated former federal prosecutor Richard Chema (D) by 59% to 41% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.2% Democratic.

This should be a swing district based on the strong performance here by Gov. Ted Strickland in 2006. It was held by Democrat Tony Hall from 1981 to 2003. Unfortunately, incumbent Rep. Michael Turner (R-Centerville) benefits from having been Mayor of Dayton, where most of the Democratic votes are located. Nevertheless, business woman and long-time political activist Jane Mitakides (D) gave Turner a fairly stiff challenge in 2004 (gaining 37.7% of the vote) and figures to improve in her second campaign and with an electorate yearning for change. Questions have been raised about Turner’s ethics, including a no-bid contract that benefited his spouse, and this could give Mitakides something of an opening if she is willing to exploit it.

12th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and northeast suburbs, Dublin, Delaware). Cook PVI R+0.7. Bush won 51% in 2004. Incumbent Pat Tiberi (R) defeated former Congressman Bob Shamansky (D) by 58% to 42% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 56.6% Democratic.

Businessman and political novice David W. Robinson (D) won a tough primary and is an intriguing candidate with possible crossover appeal. He has interesting credentials like a Ph.D. in theology and philosophy, a cross-country bicycle fund-raising trek for Alzheimers research, and working as a Presenter for Al Gore’s Climate Project initiative. If he had the benefit of political experience I’d move this race up to the next tier. [After some reflection I decdied that this race belongs in Tier Four because of the relatively even PVI and the challenger’s strong showing in a tough primary.] Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Westerville) is not a distinguished member of the House but held onto his seat in 2006 with nasty attack ads against his challenger.

Tier Five: Safe Republican

4th District West Central Ohio (includes Mansfield, Findlay, Marion, Lima, Bellefontaine, Sidney). Cook PVI R+14. Bush won 64% in 2004. Freshman Jim Jordan (R) defeated attorney Richard Siferd (D) by 60% to 40% in 2006.

Steelworker and labor union activist Mike Carroll (D-Mansfield) deserves a lot of credit for taking on freshman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana), and this district has the second highest percentage of blue collar workers in Ohio, but it is the reddest district in the state and hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1936.

8th District. West Ohio includes northern Dayton suburbs, Troy, Hamilton, Fairfield). Cook PVI R+12. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent (and House Speaker) John Boehner defeated political novice Morton Meier (D) by 64% to 36% in 2006.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-West Chester)  has enormous campaign resources. Political activist and USAF veteran Nick Von Stein (D-Mason) is a personable and promising young candidate but this hill looks too steep to climb.

5th District. North Central Ohio (includes Norwalk, Bucyrus, Tiffin, Defiance, Bowling Green, Fremont). Cook PVI R+10.1. Bush won 61% in 2004. Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), who defeated repeat challenger Robin Weirauch by 57% to 43% in 2006, died in September 2007 and State Rep. Bob Latta (R) defeated Weirauch by the same margin in a special election in December.

Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) is safe against tanning salon and karaoke entrepreneur George F. Mays (D-Norwalk), formerly a member of the fringe Reform Party.

Democratic-Held Seats

There are no open Democratic seats and at this point there aren’t any Democratic incumbents seriously at risk.

Tier One: Leans Democratic

18th District East Central Ohio (includes Chillicothe, Zanesville, Mt. Vernon, Newark and New Philadelphia). Cook PVI R+6.1. Bush won 57% in 2004. In 2006,  disgraced incumbent Bob Ney (R-Heath) resigned late in the campaign and Dover Law Director Zack Space (D) defeated replacement candidate State Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton) by 62% to 38%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 72.5% Democratic.

Just about a year ago this was considered the NRCC’s number one target nationwide. Rep. Zack Space (D-Dover) has greatly increased his chances of holding this seat by raising over a million dollars and engaging in a remarkable series of high-visibility events throughout this far-flung district. He gets great local press and does strong case work through three district offices. He has staked out relatively conservative (and infuriating)  positions on guns and immigration that help him with conservative voters and buttress his claim to be a political independent. His opponent, former Ohio Director of Agriculture Fred Dailey (R-Mt Vernon), is not a top-notch challenger. He got 39% of the vote in a four-way GOP primary, is not considered an exciting personality or hard-working campaigner, and has lingering problems with some farmers for giving environment-damaging factory farms a free pass while running the Ohio Department of Agriculture. The NRCC and 527’s will probably pour resources into this race to try to take Space out, but he nevertheless seems to be in fairly good shape.

Tier Two: High Probability Democratic

6th District. SE Ohio (includes Athens, Marietta, Steubenville, East Liverpool). Cook PVI D+0.4. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) won the Democratic primary as a write-in candidate (he had filed defective nominating petitions) and cruised to an easy general election win over former Ohio House Speaker Charles Blasdel (R) by 62% to 38% to replace Gov. Ted Strickland in this Appalachian district. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 74.6% Democratic.

Popular Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) should prevail easily over Deputy County Recorder Richard Stobbs (R-Dillonvale) in a district that has trended strongly blue due to the popularity of Gov Strickland.

10th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and southern and western suburbs). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Dennis Kucinich (D) defeated former U.S. government official Mike Dovilla (R) by 66% to 34%.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) would have had a serious primary challenge from rising political force Joe Cimperman (D) if there hadn’t been three other Democrats in the race, but he should be fine against former state representative Jim Trakas (R-Independence) and independent candidate Paul Visokaj (I). [After some reflection I decided that this race belongs in Tier Two because the challenger has campaign experience, the primary revealed significant (although not over powering) dissatisfaction with the incumbent, and the PVI is not as strong as in most of the safer districts.]

Tier Three: Safe Democratic

13th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Akron and eastern suburbs, Cuyahoga Falls, Lorain, Elyria, Brnswick, Strongsville). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 56% in 2004. In 2006 former state representative and labor attorney Betty Sutton (D) won a close Democratic primary and handily defeated Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R) by 61% to 39% in the general election to replace Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon).

The GOP took their best shot when this was an open seat last cycle and lost by a country mile. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley Township) isn’t at risk to political newcomer David S. Potter (R).

9th District North Central Ohio (includes Toledo, Sylvania, Sandusky). Cook PVI D+9. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) defeated electrician Bradley Leavitt (R) by 74% to 26%.

No chance for Bradley Leavitt (R-Toledo) in his rematch against the Dean of the Ohio Congressional Delegation and labor favorite Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in this heavily blue-collar district.

17th District NE Ohio (includes Youngstown, Niles, Warren, Kent). Cook PVI D+14. Kerry won 63% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Tim Ryan (D) defeated Don Manning (R) by 80% to 20%.

No worries for Pelosi protege and potential 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles) over teacher Duane V. Grassell (R-Mogadore).

11th District NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and eastern suburbs). Cook PVI D+33. Kerry won 81.39% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Stephanie Tubbs Jones demolished car salesman Lindsey String by 83% to 17%.

No sweat for Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland) over political unknown Thomas Pekarek (R) in Ohio’s bluest congressional district.

Cross-posted at Ohio Daily Blog