Tag: OH-16

The Buckeye State is going to provide the purest test of the “coattails” of the eventual Democratic  candidate for President. We elected our new Governor in 2006 and don’t have a U.S. Senate race until 2010. So this time, the ballot goes from President to U.S. House seats.

And, again, it’s all about Ohio.

Repeat after me kids: “No Republican can get to the White House unless they win Ohio.” I think that putting the Sick Days Initiative on the ballot is a master stroke. The polling numbers for this proposal are absolutely Off. The. Hook. Just as the disgusting Hate Amendment (anti-gay marriage) brought in enough evangelicals to reelect the Shrub in 2004, the Minimum Wage initiative helped a blue tide to sweep Ohio in 2006.

Our current U.S. House delegation is 11 GOP to 7 Democrats (gotta loves them Gerrymandering!) But we have the very real chance to flip three or maybe even FOUR seats. I don’t know if any other state right now with the meaningful chance to make such a HUGE reversal in their Congresscritters.

I thoroughly expect victories from:

OH-01 (Steve Dreihaus)

OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-16 State Senator and USAF Major John Boccieri

and MAYBE

OH-14 Judge (and pediatrics emergency room nurse) Bill O’Neill

Other seats will be entertaining as well. For example, who doesn’t look forward to what fresh hell Mean Jean Schmidt (OH-02) can bring down on herself and her GOP collaborators?

Here’s the big question:

What other state has a realistic chance to flip control of their state’s U.S. House delegation and to do so by such a large percentage of the seats in the state?

My sense is that we have seen little of the so called “Bradley effect” or “Wilder Effect” in the primaries, but I suspect that it will be much, much worse in the run up to the general election as the right wing smear machine pounds away at their target demographics, including lower income, lower education, white, male “NASCAR dads” (and moms.)

As I keep repeating, Democratic candidates MUST be really disciplined and stick to the “kitchen table” issues come heck or high water. Pocketbook truth trumps delusional scare tactics. They may have fear and bigotry on their side but we have reality.

crossposted from Ohio Daily Blog

Candidate	District	4Q Donations	Cash on Hand	Debts or note
Steve Driehaus	OH-01	$190,054.78	$418,662.01
Steve Black	OH-02	$64,322.00	$223,535.61	$58,320.00
Victoria Wulsin	OH-02	$113,773.32	$344,315.29
Charles Sanders	OH-03	$1,090.00	$21.14
Charlie Wilson*	OH-06	$64,905.33	$294,645.87	$191,650.00
Dave Woolever	OH-07	$1,791.48	$305.84	$12,900.00
Bill Conner	OH-07	$3,352.03	$5,780.17	$10,500.00
Marcy Kaptur*	OH-09	$29,250.00	$847,210.88	All from PACs
Barbara Ferris	OH-10	$12,234.00	$6,547.52
Joe Cimperman	OH-10	$227,599.78	$204,771.90
Tom O’Grady	OH-10	$28,300.00	$25,415.33
Rosemary Palmer	OH-10	$19,203.00	$51,737.13
Dennis Kucinich*	OH-10	$13,351.09	$13,383.26
Stephanie Tubbs Jones*	OH-11	$132,646.58	$114,704.16	$82,958.00 via PACs
Betty Sutton*	OH-13	$74,139.68	$72,403.49
Bill O’Neill	OH-14	$71,226.46	$102,930.45
Mary Jo Kilroy	OH-15	$356,898.45	$638,086.88	$35,000
John Boccieri	OH-16	$110,789.38	$308,719.15
Tim Ryan*	OH-17	$165,695.01	$357,103.59
Zack Space*	OH-18	$282,181.83	$755,810.31	$11,106.88

NOTES: Incumbents indicated with asterisk  (*)

Anyone not listed did not file a report. (Candidates who raised less than $5,000 are not required to file.)

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted from DKos)

As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio’s filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.

Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.

Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.

First of all, the list. I scoured official and media resources Saturday morning, so there may be some mistakes. Clean them up in the comments, if you find one…

OH 01 (DEM): Steve Driehaus

OH 01 (GOP): Rep. Steve Chabot

OH 02 (DEM): Steve Black, Victoria Wulsin, William Smith

OH 02 (GOP): Rep. Jean Schmidt, Tom Brinkman, Phil Heimlich, Nathan Bailey

OH 03 (DEM): David Esrati, Jane Mitakides, Charles W. Sanders

OH 03 (GOP): Rep. Mike Turner

OH 04 (DEM): Mike Carroll

OH 04 (GOP): Rep. Jim Jordan

OH 05 (DEM): George Mays

OH 05 (GOP): Rep. Bob Latta, Scott Radcliffe, Michael Reynolds

OH 06 (DEM): Rep. Charlie Wilson

OH 06 (GOP): A Republican candidate filed, could not find a name.

OH 07 (DEM): Bill Conner, Sharen Neuhardt, Jack Null, Thomas Scrivens, David Woolever, Richard Wyderski

OH 07 (GOP): Steve Austria, Dan Harkins, Ron Hood, John Mitchel

OH 08 (DEM): Mort Meier, Nicholas Vonstein

OH 08 (GOP): Rep. John Boehner

OH 09 (DEM): Rep. Marcy Kaptur

OH 09 (GOP): Bradley Leavitt

OH 10 (DEM): Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Cimperman, Thomas O’Grady, Rosemary Palmer, Barbara Ferris

OH 10 (GOP): Jim Trakas, Jason Werner

OH 11 (DEM): Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones

OH 11 (GOP): Thomas Pekarek, Bob Saffold

OH 12 (DEM): Aaron Dagres, Marc Fagin, Russ Goodwin, David Robinson

OH 12 (GOP): Rep. Pat Tiberi, David Ryon

OH 13 (DEM): Rep. Betty Sutton

OH 13 (GOP): Frank Chestney, Frances Kalapodis, David Potter

OH 14 (DEM): Bill O’Neill, Dale Blanchard, John Greene

OH 14 (GOP): Rep. Steve LaTourette

OH 15 (DEM): Mary Jo Kilroy

OH 15 (GOP): Ralph Applegate, Charles Chope, John Diamond, Steve Stivers, Robert Wagner

OH 16 (DEM): John Boccieri, Mary Cirelli

OH 16 (GOP): Matt Miller, Paul Schiffer, Kirk Schuring

OH 17 (DEM): Rep. Tim Ryan

OH 17 (GOP): Duane Grassell

OH 18 (DEM): Rep. Zack Space, Mark Pitrone

OH 18 (GOP): Beau Bromberg, Fred Dailey, Jeannette Moll, Paul Phillips

Now, here is my analysis of the PRIMARY ELECTIONS:

OH-02: This might be the most intriguing primary of them all on March 4th. The Democratic side of the equation might be more competitive than you think, as Steve Black has already raised well into six figures in his attempt to deny Vic Wulsin a second shot at the brass ring. Wulsin has never stopped running from her solid 2006 run, which saw her come within two points of the incumbent.

The incumbent might have been saved by seeing (yet again!) two legitimate Republicans file against her. Both Brinkman and Heimlich have records as elected officials, and both will bring resources to the table. Watch Schmidt escape again with a 35-30-30-5 win.

OH-07: What was thought to be a coronation for state Senator Steve Austria has grown more complicated as time has gone on. Late in the game, former state Representative Ron Hood decided to make the show. Both Harkins and Mitchel have the threat of being serious candidates. Austria is still the bettors’ favorite, and looks good for the general as well.

OH-10: Time will tell if Dennis Kucinich’s vanity run for President will cost him back home. Like Schmidt, he probably benefits from the fact that there is a multi-candidate field in front of him. Cimperman is a city councilman in Cleveland, O’Grady is the mayor of North Olmstead, Palmer has generated some attention, and Ferris has run before (only getting 24% of the vote in 2006). Republicans probably are running one of their strongest candidates in former state rep. Jim Trakas, but this is a district where Kucinich’s closest race (in 2004) held him to a mere 60%.

OH-16: At the last second, Democratic plans to have an uncomplicated run here were foiled when a longtime city official (Mary Cirelli) got into the race against party-anointed state senator John Boccieri. It is questionable whether the sixty-something Cirelli will present a serious threat to Boccieri, who has the blessing of many county party officials, as well as a formidable war chest. On the GOP side, it is a free-for-all between Matt Miller (who ran tough against the retiring Ralph Regula in 2006), state senator Kirk Schuring, and right-wing talk radio host Paul Schiffer.

THE GENERAL ELECTION IN OHIO:

There are several seats to watch in Ohio. The good news: they are pretty much entirely in Republican hands.

Of the three Democratic freshmen in Ohio, only Zack Space is facing opposition that anyone would take seriously. Even in this race (OH-18), no one sees this as a toss-up. Space wiping the floor with Joy Padgett probably scared off higher-caliber competition. Meanwhile, both Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Betty Sutton (OH-13) face nominal opposition.

Meanwhile, there are first-tier GOP targets all over the map. Principal among these are the pair of open seats in central Ohio: the Columbus-based 15th district and the Canton-based 16th district. Both are swing districts (the 15th a bit more favorable to Dems). Mary Jo Kilroy, after nearly disposing of Deb Pryce in 2006, did not draw a primary challenger. Now she lies in wait, presumably to face GOP recruit Steve Stivers, a state senator who got in after initially demurring from a challenge. Over in the 16th district, Boccieri is the best candidate the Dems could have hoped for, and he will likely benefit from a brutal GOP primary. Expect Schuring to emerge from it. Also expect at least one of these seats to go Democratic in November.

There are also a number of GOP incumbents being looked at. The Cincy metro area sees the two most prized targets in third-term Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) and class of 1994 Rep. Steve Chabot (OH-01). Democrats think that they might have finally found the right candidate for Chabot in the person of state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Of course, they thought that when Roxanne Qualls ran in 1998, and they also thought that when Cranley ran here in 2006. Jean Schmidt, meanwhile, must first survive the GOP primary. If she does (and she is the betting favorite), she will square off most likely in a 2006 rematch with Vic Wulsin. It was one of the closest races in America in 2006, and would promise to be so again, especially since the DCCC is unlikely to be a late arrival in the race this time around.

Other possible races to watch: Judge Bill O’Neill making a run at another Class of 1994 incumbent, Republican Steve LaTourette (OH-14). Democrat Jane Mitakides, who ran a well-funded race in the Dayton-based 3rd district, will take another swing at Republican Rep. Mike Turner. In the Columbus-based 12th district, Pat Tiberi will never be able to rest TOO easy, but he will be a favorite over the Democrats.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

A star is born in OH! IO!

Canton, Ohio Mayoral Race
Challenger Jamey Healy (D): 53.4%
Incumbent Janet Creighton (R): 46.6%

Canton is the largest city in the 16th Congressional District — a place I called home during my first campaign and returned when given the opportunity by Senator Sherrod Brown a year later. 

It’s an inexpensive cocktail made from 2 parts economic depression and job loss, 1 part quaint strip-mall suburbia, and 1 part big city…ish.

And last night, it was home to a proxy war that will hopefully foretell the outcome of OH-16 and the Presidential election in 2008.

Canton is the largest city in what is widely considered THE swing district in Ohio: Stark County. Stark County, of course, is the largest county in what is considered the pivotal race in Ohio’s Congressional landscape this year: OH-16.

You hear a lot of “firewall” states for Presidential campaigns.  Ie. if candidate “x” loses such and such states, their “firewall” is Florida (for example) where he/she can regain lost momentum and come back to carry the day.  In this instance, Canton was the firewall city for the Ohio GOP.  Until last night, it was the largest city under Republican control.

And this morning, there isn’t a single Republican elected official in the entire city.

For the final days and weeks, Republicans re-allocated their resources away from races like the longshot attempt to unseat Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman and started sending troops Northeast torwards Canton.

Emails went out, troops came in, money flew in all directions in what was the most expensive Mayoral race in the city’s history.  Ted Strickland, Chris Redfern and the resurgent Ohio Democratic Party responded in-kind with dollars, bodies and political heft.  And with a week to go, it was clear: Canton was the place to be.

At the end of the day, the Ohio Democratic Party train rolled on — decisively beating the Republicans and forcing them back to a fall-back position they only envisioned in their worst nightmares.

The Stark County Democratic party *was* an ossified pseudo-machine under the leadership of Johnnie Maier.  Maier is an opportunist, pure and simple.  The kind of man who would quickly place his own political ambitions directly ahead of any perceived threat to his own power or future ladders he might contemplate climbing.

And that includes Democratic candidates running for office in his own backyard.

Johnnie Maier is a checkers master trying to compete on a three dimensional chess board.  His inability to completely grasp his surroundings is rivaled only by the lead character in the movie Momento.

He alienates activists like it were his job.  He chased away Kerry coordinators, pissed off ACT, and actively worked against Reform Ohio Now. Quite the trifecta.

Johnnie Maier is no longer the leader of the Ohio Democratic Party in Stark County.  There is a new sheriff in town. It’s a new breed of Democrat that will deliver votes to John Boccieri and the Democratic nominee in OH-16.  People like Jamey and Deametrious St. John flexed their muscles and led the ticket to a clean sweep.

Finally, a star is born. I had long considered Jamey a top prospect to run either against Ralph Regula, or in the open seat in a post-Regula world.  He went another route, and that opened the door for someone like John Boccieri to walk through it. 

A victory here signals strength in OH-16 that hasn’t been seen for quite some time.  It signals a Democratic Party on the move and a Republican Party retreating to the reddest of red portions of the state.  And it was a test of wills in a battle that most viewed as a precursor of things to come statewide in 2008.

There is a lot to be encouraged about in this race.  We won the battle, and it was a nice little leap in the right direction towards winning the war.

Yet another House Republican has come to the conclusion that being in the minority is a total bummer.  From Roll Call:

Republican sources confirmed Thursday that Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Ohio) will announce his retirement imminently, perhaps as soon as Friday. A Regula spokesman would not confirm the retirement announcement, saying the 18-term Congressman has made no such public announcement.

Regula has long been a prime candidate for retirement: he’s old, he doesn’t like being in the minority anymore, and he’s tired of the increasingly bitter atmosphere in DC.

Democrats feel good about making a hard run for Regula’s open seat, and they’ve already lined up a top recruit for the job: state Sen. John Boccieri, an Air Force vet who has served in Iraq.  This district has been trending Democratic since Bush carried it by a 53-42 margin in 2000.  Against John Kerry, Bush’s margin in the district narrowed to 54-46, and Democrats feel that Boccieri has the right profile to ride the Democratic trend and close the gap.

This will be a top tier race to watch.

UPDATE: Regula confirms it:

Longtime congressman Ralph Regula, whose years and power on the House Appropiations Committee made him a major player for northeast Ohio, confirmed to The Plain Dealer that he will not run for reelection next year.

“I will have been there for 36 years,” said Regula, 82, the dean of Ohio’s congressional delegation. “According to the Congressional Research Service, I am the longest continuously serving member ever in the history of Ohio.”

Race Tracker: OH-16

Speaking to WKSU Radio, Republican Rep. Ralph Regula offered a self-portrait roughly in line with the common perception of the 18-term House veteran: a man discontent with being in the minority for the remainder of his career, tired of the House GOP's stalling tactics, and alarmed by the surging Democratic trend of his home state as of late:

“My chance to be chairman has probably past me by because we are in the minority and I don't think we are going to be in the majority in the foreseeable future,” he told WKSU.

“It's more fun to be in the majority, because when you're in the majority you're in charge and you can make decisions. You know, given a choice I'd prefer the majority.” […]

The massive electoral losses the GOP suffered in Ohio last year could also lead Regula to call it a career.

Ohio is “moving towards more of a blue state, and it's probably going to be reflected in the legislative races in the future,” Regula told the station. “Look, the Republicans had all the state offices. Now we only have one.”

Regula concluded that 2008 could be as bad for the GOP as 2006 was.

It will be “a challenging year, particularly if we don't have some degree of success in Iraq.”

On top of Regula's lackluster second quarter, where he was outraised by both his Democratic challenger John Boccieri and his potential Republican successor, Regula's wistful reflections are perhaps the strongest indicator yet that he'll hang up the saddle in 2008.

(H/T: As Ohio Goes) 

Ralph Regula is an absolute relic in the House of Representatives.  Now in his 18th term and approaching his 83rd birthday, he has begun to show some significant signs of rust lately, especially given his lackluster performances in his 2006 primary and general election campaigns, where he won only 58% of the vote against low-profile challengers in each race.  It’s only natural then, that Regula, now in the House Minority, would be the subject of intense retirement speculation.  The speculation is so intense, that Republican state Senator J. Kirk Schuring has put his name forward as the heir apparent in the event of Regula’s retirement.  According to CQ Politics, Schuring has pledged only to run if Regula steps aside.  Democrats, for their part, have been eyeing the Democratic-trending 16th District hungrily, and have recruited a strong challenger in state Sen. John Boccieri, an air force veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The real doozie, though, lies in the second quarter numbers:

John Boccieri (D): $155K raised; $145K cash-on-hand
J. Kirk Schuring (R): $136K raised; $130K CoH
Ralph Regula (R-inc.): $82K raised; $164K CoH

If Regula is at all serious about going for a 19th term, he might want to pick up the slack.  It speaks volumes that Schuring is apparently being seen as the better investment opportunity by GOP donors.

John Boccieri in OH-16

Allow me to reccomend State Senator (and Air Force Reserve Major) John Boccieri.

John has been endorsed by VoteVets.org, General Wesley Clark and Governor Ted Strickland, who spoke at our campaign kick-off event:

“As a former Congressman, I know that it takes a strong leader like John Boccieri to stand up for Ohio families in Washington. John Boccieri understands the problems facing our communities and he is the right leader to fight for this area in Congress.  He’s been fighting to turn around Ohio as a state Senator and he will fight to turn around Ohio as a Member of Congress.” 

As others have mentioned, this Saturday, June 30, is the end of the quarter for FEC fundraising. We’re hoping that we can keep the momentum building that we’re enjoyed so far. If you can help with financial support through ActBlue, it would be GREATLY appreciated.

Sincerely,

Earl Britt
Web assistant
http://johnforcongress.com

The plethora of opportunities for House Democratic challengers in Ohio next year is a topic that both CQ Politics and MyDD’s Jon Singer looked at recently. Between both sources, we can identify no fewer than seven potential offensive targets for Democrats this cycle. The following chart lists each possible targeted district by its PVI, the incumbent’s margin of victory in 2006, and the Kerry/Bush and Gore/Bush margins in 2004 and 2000, respectively:

CD	Incumbent	PVI	’06 Margin	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
OH-01	Chabot	R+0.5	4	49	51	46	51
OH-02	Schmidt	R+13.1	1	36	64	34	63
OH-03	Turner	R+2.9	17	46	54	45	52
OH-12	Tiberi	R+0.7	15	49	51	46	52
OH-14	LaTourette	R+2.2	18	47	53	44	52
OH-15	Pryce	R+1.1	<1	50	50	44	52
OH-16	Regula	R+3.6	17	46	54	42	53

With the exception of the 3rd, these districts have been trending more Democratic on the Presidential level since 2000. Despite shrewd gerrymandering by Ohio Republicans, with the right challengers, each of these seats could come into play.

• OH-01: The DCCC thinks it has their man to finish what John Cranley started in his challenge to Republican Steve Chabot in 2006. State Rep. and Minority Whip Steve Driehaus, “a Democrat with a history of winning over Republican voters”, has thrown his hat in the ring. On the one hand, Driehaus has a suburban political base that can help wear down Chabot in his strongest territories. On the other hand, Driehaus may lack the broader name recognition of Cranley, who was an at-large councilor in Cincinnati. On balance, though, Driehaus’ resume looks good, and he should prove to be another credible challenger.
• OH-02: No doubt about it; Jean Schmidt is a political time bomb set to go off every six months or so with another bizarre comment about bringing nuclear waste into her district or deriding the outrage over the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown” criticism. Jean Schmidt could very well be the worst politician of the decade, which is the only reason why Team Blue has a shot at winning this R+13 district. 2006 candidate Vic Wulsin is game for a rematch, and while it doesn’t seem to take much to incite Schmidt into inflicting another wound on herself, the Democratic nominee in this district will have to deal with running against the Presidential headwind of a solidly Republican district. A tough challenge, to be sure, but Schmidt is destined to underperform, especially if she gets another primary challenge.
• OH-03: This Dayton-based district was represented by Democrat Tony P. Hall from 1978-2002, but has since been occupied by Republican Mike Turner. Whatever hope Democrats had in sparking an upset last year unfortunately went down in flames after the Democratic nominee, Stephanie Studebaker, was arrested in a domestic dispute just three months before election day. Prosecutor Dick Chema was the last-minute replacement, and perhaps unsurprisingly fell short by roughly 17 points. Given that this district’s Republican lean is less than heavy, a well-organized challenger with a good profile could perhaps do to Turner what Democrat Jason Altmire did to “rising star” Republican Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania last year, who held a similarly Republican-leaning seat with a long history of voting for Congressional Democrats.
• OH-12: Republican Pat Tiberi convincingly repelled Swing State Project hero and near-octogenarian Bob Shamansky by a 15-point margin last November, but he did have to empty his $3 million war chest to do it. Tiberi shouldn’t be able to escape 2008 with a free pass, especially in a trending Democratic district like this one.
• OH-14: Democrats have an eager challenger to Republican Steve LaTourette: William O’Neill, a judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals in Ohio. O’Neill’s recent claim to fame was winning 41% of the vote for the Ohio Supreme Court on a $1 budget in 2006, in principled opposition to the mixing of campaign contributions and judicial service. However, O’Neill claims he won’t be nearly as stingy in his campaign against LaTourette. He intends to raise $1 million for the race, and will resign from the bench on June 15th and has already been in contact with the DCCC, according to comments attributed to him on the Buckeye State Blog. LaTourette, despite some family values hypocrisy and a district trending more Democratic on the Presidential level, has yet to face a top-shelf challenge this decade (no, Capri Cafaro doesn’t count). If Judge O’Neill can bring the noize, this might be another unexpected defense for Republicans next year.
• OH-15: After watching the disappointments of Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell in their four-year campaigns last cycle, I’ve become rather skeptical of the viability of most House rematches, barring special circumstances like scandal (e.g. Pombo/McNerney), and major strategic reorientation (e.g. Hodes/Bass, Boyda/Ryun). But Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy ran a strong challenge against Deborah Pryce last year, which is why I’m somewhat ambivalent about the brewing primary battle between her and fellow Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. Pryce could be on unstable ground in 2008, but we’ll need to sort out our side of the fence first.
• OH-16: At age 82, Republican Ralph Regula is ripe for retirement. But even if this seat doesn’t open up, Democrats plan on making an aggressive challenge after the no-profile, no-money Democrat Thomas Shaw scored a surprising 41.6% against the 34-year incumbent. According to the Buckeye State Blog, State Senator John Boccieri, an officer in the Air Force Reserve and a veteran of four tours in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, is strongly considering a bid for this seat. With a strong electoral track record and an excellent profile, Boccieri could prove to be a top-tier Democratic recruitment in the next cycle.

Seven districts, seven pressure points. Democrats probably won’t win all of them, or even many of them, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be wise to push on all of these targets hard to keep Congressional Republicans focused on putting out as many brushfires as possible.

Race Tracker: Ohio

Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

Well well well. It seems so soon since we were celebrating the Midterm results and our record of contesting 425 Districts. That’s because it is so soon (LOL). Odd thing to do here in Australia watch the midterms but I took the day off work and had a merry old time watching it all unfold on the net and on cable he he he.

Nonetheless time for the 50 State Page to crank up for 2008 courtesy of the redoubtable Barry Welsh. This cycle we have some help however from the magnificent 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go and take a look at them both right now and whilst you are there throw Barry some cash. He will be running again and is rightly a netroots champion.

Now for the good oil;
248 races with confirmed candidates. A confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.

The 248 includes all 233 Democratic incumbents (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts, and all Dem incumbents are also listed as Running But Unconfirmed).

There are also 15 Republican held districts where we have confirmed candidates as follows:
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-21,
IL-14,
IA-04,
MI-07,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NJ-11,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-16,
PA-03,
TX-04.

But wait there is more.
We also have 238 candidates who I believe are running but who are at this stage unconfirmed according to the above criteria. All 233 districts held by Democrats but also 5 districts held by Republicans as follows:

AR-03,
CA-04,
ID-01,
IN-06 hurry up and confirm Barry!,
NJ-05.

We also have 6 rumoured candidates. These guys are mentioned as considering the race in the following districts:
FL-06,
FL-13 *** depends on the outcome of the challenge,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
PA-15,
TX-06.

So we are off and racing for 2008. Use the 2008 Race Tracker wiki as the primary source of gossip and information as it is a fantastic site and I have spent a LOT of time contributing there also.

Any candidate news, particularly opponents for Repubs welcome in the comments!