Tag: 2008 Elections

From  Sunday’s Oregonian, the state’s largest paper–serving about 1 in 10 Oregonians:

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

Oregon Democrats have long coveted the seat of Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican currently holding statewide office. They consider him vulnerable because of the way he has supported the policies of an unpopular president while managing to rile many in his party. And in a year in which Democrats are expected to gain ground in Congress, they just may be right.

We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4′-9″ and has a hook instead of a left hand.

This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick’s remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.

 

{ the closer, below}

Merkley has been everything Oregonians could want in a House speaker. Even his opponents harbor him little ill-will, crediting him with restoring a measure of civility to a divided chamber. But watching this campaign, Democrats may want to take a sharper course.

Novick is an unusual man with an unusual resume — characteristics that some suggest aren’t suited to the U.S. Senate. But we think his passion, his intellect and his personal style give him an intriguing combination of qualities that most senators don’t possess.

We think Novick represents a bold choice for Democrats who seek to dislodge a veteran incumbent. He has the potential to press Smith as he has done Merkley. And, should he pull off what would be a major electoral upset and go to Washington as the new junior senator from Oregon, he has the potential to make Oregonians proud.

Whatever you may think of The O’s board, the value of their endorsement, or their winning percentage, they certainly understand what Steve’s approach is and why it looks so appealing to a lot of people. “Passion, intellect and personal style” is a good way to wrap it up.

They also recognize the strange and magnificient electoral cycle we’re in, and the possibilities for a more sweeping change that brings us better Democrats, not more Democrats. More straight talk, less parsing. A return to greater equity between work and wealth, people and corporations. A decency towards all men and women, and a fierce revival of the keystones of our American goverment–privacy, freedom, peace through defensive strength and strong diplomacy, and economic justice.

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

You bet your ass. One can never tell what the impact of a newspaper endorsement will be, and I think most would agree that their influence has steadily declined over the years.

However, The O is still the Pacific Northwest’s largest circulating paper according to Wikipedia, and stands as the established media’s preeminent presence in the state. Had the paper chosen Merkley I think most would have written it off as the expected move; that they were seemingly so impressed by Novick during his interview (and I did hear from witnesses that he absolutely crushed it) is rather more notable. It’s always more of a story when the nontraditional candidate gets the nod, and this endorsement is no different.

By my count, that gives Novick:

*The most coveted individual (fmr gov Kitzhaber)

*The most coveted organization (Oregon Education Association)

*The most coveted newspaper (Oregonian)

*The coolest endorsement to “the kids” (Michael Stipe of REM, Stone Gossard of Pearl Jam, and a number of others)

With just a week until ballots are delivered, and less than a month until they are counted, Novick appears to be gaining momentum for victory.  

Feel free to comment, share opinions.  There are a lot more house races and it’s harder to draw clear distinctions when ranking them compared to ranking the US Senate races.  I am posting this to get feedback, and to compare information.  

I also don’t want the diary to be too long, so I’m not going to post financial information on here, but I will link SSP’s two diaries.  

Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (Everything except IN and NC)

And Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (IN and NC)

*** = Retiring Incumbent/Open Seat

DCCC’s Red to Blue List: http://www.dccc.org/page/conte…

====House Republicans====

1. New York-25***  (D+3)

Dan Maffei v. ???

2. Illinois-11***  (R+1)

Debbie Halvorson v. ???

3. New Jersey-03*** (D+3)

John Adler v. Chris Myers

4. Arizona-01*** (R+2)

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

5. New Jersey-07*** (R+1)

Linda Stender v. Kate Whitman

———————————————————————

6. Minnesota-03*** (R+1)

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

7. Michigan-07 (R+2)

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

8. New York-26*** (R+3)

Jon Powers v. ???

9. Ohio-15*** (R+1)

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

10. Ohio-16*** (R+4)

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

11. Alabama-02*** (R+13)

Bobby Bright v. Harri Anne Smith

———————————————————————

12. Louisiana-06*** (R+7)   Special Election – May 3rd

Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins

13. New York-29 (R+5)

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

14. Washington-08 (D+2)

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

15. Missouri-06 (R+5)

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

16. Florida-24 (R+3)

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

17. Alaska-AL (R+14)

Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young

18. Virginia-11*** (R+1)

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

19. Connecticut-04 (D+5)

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

20. North Carolina-08 (R+3)

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

21. Michigan-09 (R+0)

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

22. Illinois-10 (D+4)

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

23. Virginia-05 (R+6)

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

24. Nevada-03 (D+1)

Robert Daskas v. Representative Jon Porter

25. New Mexico-01*** (D+2)

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

26. Mississippi-01*** (R+10) Special Election – May 13th

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Robert Gaw v. Bob Onder

28. Colorado-04 (R+9)

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

———————————————————————

29. Louisiana-04*** (R+7)

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

30. Ohio-01 (R+1)

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

31. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

32. California-04*** (R+11)

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

33. Idaho-01 (R+19)

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

34. Ohio-02 (R+13)

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmitt

35. Arizona-03 (R+6)

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

36. West Virginia-02 (R+5)

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

37. Virginia-02 (R+6)

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

38. Florida-13 (R+4)

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanon

39. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2)

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

40. Texas-10 (R+13)

Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

———————————————————————

41. New Mexico-02*** (R+6)

Bill McCamley v. Ed Tinsley  

42. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven Latourette

43. New Jersey-05 (R+4)

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

44. Texas-07 (R+16)

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

45. California-50 (R+5)

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

46. Florida-21 (R+6)

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

47. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charles Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

48. Nevada-02 (R+8)

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

49. Florida-25 (R+4)

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

50. Alabama-03 (R+4)

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

51. Florida-18 (R+4)

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

52. Illinois-06 (R+3)

Jill Morgenthaler v. Representative Peter Roskam

53. Indiana-03 (R+16)

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

54. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

55. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

56. Pennsylvania-03

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

57. Pennsylvania-18

Steve O’Donnell v. Representative Tim Murphy

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5)

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

59. Pennsylvania-05*** (R+10)

Mark McCracken v. Glenn Thompson

60. Florida-10 (D+1)

Linn Max v. Representative Bill Young

====House Democrats====

1. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

2. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

3. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

4. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey

———————————————————————

5. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

6. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

7. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

8. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

9. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

10. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

11. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

12. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

13. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

14. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

———————————————————————

16. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

17. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

18. Connecticut-02 (D+8)

Representative Joe Courtney v. Sean Sullivan

19. North Carolina-11 (R+7)

Representative Heath Schuler v. Spence Campbell

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

21. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

22. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

23. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

24. Indiana-02 (R+4)

Representative Joe Donnelly v. Luke Puckett

25. Minnesota-01 (R+10)

Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day

26. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Notes:

– In contests where the primary has not yet occured, I have picked the person who has fundraised the most.  

– 60 Vulnerable/Potentially Vulnerable House Republicans

– Prediction is 20-30 Democratic pickups in the US House

– Current Breakdown of the US House 234D-198R Representatives (3 Outstanding)

– Projected Outcome of the US House 256D-179R Representatives

– 25 Retiring Republicans

Tiers:

(Republicans)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#5 = Likely Democratic Pickup

Tier 2 – Races #6-#11 = Lean Democratic Pickup

Tier 3 – Races #12-#28 = Toss Up

Tier 4 – Races #29-#40 = Lean Republican Retention

Tier 5 – Races #41-#60 = Likely Republican Retention

(Democrats)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#4 = Toss Up

Tier 2 – Races #5-#15 = Lean Democratic Retention

Tier 3 – Races #16-#26 = Likely Democratic Retention

We may be engaged in an uphill fight here in Kentucky’s First Congressional District, but hey, we ARE fighting!! It appears that our opponent, Ed Whitfield realizes he has a battle in front of him. He knows Democrats here have no stomach for conceding this district yet again. His actions are showing, he may very well be feeling the heat!!

Shortly after this speech:

Exxon Eddie started releasing statements about all the good he is doing for the Citizens of this district. He even got a website:

http://www.whitfieldforcongres…

Go there if you need a good laugh.

Yes, Exxon Eddie has been trying to clean up his record of rubber-stamping every failed policy thought of in the distorted world of George W. Bush. Here at Ryan for Kentucky, we live with the consequences of Ed Whitfield as our Representative for far to long to buy it. Our leader, Heather Ryan sure doesn’t. She recently released this statement, ripping Whitfield for his failed leadership for the people of this district:

As of late, Republican Congressman Ed Whitfield’s staff has felt the need to press release every action that the “Absentee Representative” makes.

Within the past 48 hours, they expressed his desire to cowtow to the Bush Administration by cutting funding for farm subsidy programs, which include Food Stamp benefits for the poor, and just a few hours later, released Mr. Whitfield’s support of legislation that would allow a credit for the cost of gasoline when we file taxes in 2009.

Being a mother, I tend to be a “giver”, so certainly, I am happy to assist Mr. Whitfield with his apparent need to connect to middle class. Putting food on the table, the ability to get to and from work and buying the prescriptions for which our families rely are all top priorities for average folk, like us.

These are all pressing issues that must be addressed NOW, not next year when Mr. Whitfield proposes we should receive a “rebate” on the price of gas, assuming we all save our $4.00 a gallon receipts from Exxon. Of course, he does not know from where the money for said rebate will materialize and I have yet to read about what he plans to do about the rising cost of everything else, including food, clothing, airline tickets and the like as a result of the soaring price of gas.

Perhaps Mr. Whitfield might entertain a “Windfall Profits” tax on oil companies such as Exxon and Mobile during this time of their blatant war profiteering?

But then again, Exxon and Mobile are but a few major donors to his re-election campaign and he owns in the arena of $250,000 in Exxon stock alone. It does not financially benefit him or his “friends” to impose a tax on the companies who have waged an all out assault on the poor and middle class, so don’t expect a windfall tax on the horizon as long as Whitfield is at the helm.

When an elitist Republican proposes that we should strip funding for crumbling infrastructure as a solution to Middle Class pain, we should be incensed and insulted. I hope the voters remember this pandering to the oil companies on November 4th,

I couldn’t agree with her more, and I am proud to have this young lady running for Congress in my district. She is just the sort of Democrat we need in the House, she is proud of our ideals and not afraid to run on and fight for them. If we get the resources to get her message out there, we win and expand our Congressional majorities. Better yet, we do it with a grassroots “fighting Democrat” who is beholden to us, and noone else.

Here she is talking about the promise of Renewable Energy:

Now, we have already been able to raise some funds. However, we are facing an opponent with a cool mil in Special Interest money in the bank to run on. If we can come up with just a fraction of that we win, it just takes getting the sorry record of Whitfield out to the citizens of our district and introducing them to Heather.

With that in mind I started AmericansforRyan to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20, Kentucky’s primary. Now, she is unopposed in that primary, but I want her to have funds to hit the ground running early in the General, as that could be key to victory. I am over halfway to my goal, and have decided to up the ante. I will take the names of everyone that donates between now and May 20 on my page, and put them in a drawing. To the winning name I will send these two pinback buttons from the 1960 campaign of JFK:

Help us make history, and have a chance to own a piece of Democratic history!!

Go here to make a donation and enter:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Here at Ryan for Kentucky we have a great candidate who understands we need fundamental change in this district, state and indeed our country. Unlike her opponent, Exxon Ed Whitfield, she is not beholden to the corporate interests that impede progress in this country. She is beholden to her neighbors, who are falling further and further behind due to stagnant wages and the inflation of necessary goods and services due to the record profits of Big Oil. Profits Exxon Eddie is invested in.

We can never depend on people that actually profit from the status-quo to bring about change in this country. We not only need to expand our Congressional majorities, we need to do it with new and better Democrats who won’t forget where they came from, and will fight for us in Washington D.C.

Heather Ryan is just such a Democrat. She knows the problems the disasterous policies of the last seven years have caused everyday working Americans because she lives and works among us. Lets catch up with her on the campaign trail:

I think Heather should keep nailing it home about high gas prices. While Americans fall further behind, gas prices continue to skyrocket along with the corporate profits of Exxon and Chevron, which Exxon Ed Whitfield is invested in. Worse than being merely invested in them, Exxon Eddie has fought for tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer funded corporate welfare for them. We definately need change.

Which brings us to the next subject. Renewable Energy holds much promise for our country, and especially our state. We need to invest in this promising new field, instead of pumping more money into corporations that break our backs with their corporate welfare, while recording record profits.

Heather has different ideas. She wants Kentucky to lead the way in ending our dependence on foriegn oil. She wants to invest in an exciting new industry, an industry where the benefits will be felt by all, not just the Big Oil corporate CEOs. Here is what Heather has to say about renewable energy:

Heather Ryan is young, smart, and energetic. She shares our values and goals, and has been all over this huge district trying to get our message of hope for this district, state, and indeed our nation out. She is the kind of Democrat we can be proud of when elected, as she will fight for us and not sell out her beliefs.

This campaign is picking up serious steam. Everywhere in this district that the 63% of registered Democrats see her, she is picking up new support every day. If you want to see how Democrats react to her when they see and here her for the first time, just watch this speech in front of 3000+ Democrats, most of whom were seeing Heather for the first time:

From what I heard from the people who attended this speech, only Heather and Sen. Clinton recieved standing ovations at this event.

It is plain to me that if we get our message out to our district, we can’t lose. Heather fires up Democrats wherever she appears because they believe in the message she brings. We need your help to keep this campaign going, and gaining momentum as it is now. Please go to this page and support fellow grassroots Democrats who are trying to enact change from the ground up, and expand our Congressional majorities with a Democrat we can be proud of, who will fight for what we believe in:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

No matter who you support in the Presidential, we should all be trying to fight for our country from the ground up.

We need Heather Ryan in the Congress!!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

In his 35 years, Andrew Rice has accomplished a lot.

He represents a diverse Oklahoma City district in the state senate, where he has established himself as a consensus-builder and a strong advocate for children and families.  As a freshman senator, he has already built an impressive legislative record that includes cosponsoring and helping pass the “All Kids Act” – legislation similar to SCHIP – and forming a bipartisan coalition to create the Hunger Task Force, in order to find solutions to Oklahoma’s hunger crisis.

Before his election to the state senate, he received a master’s degree in theology, worked with the Texas Freedom Network, founded the Progressive Alliance Foundation, and performed other humanitarian work abroad.  After his brother, David, was killed on 9/11 in the World Trade Center, Andrew became heavily involved in the push for the creation of the 9/11 Commission and worked with victims’ family groups in opposing the Iraq War, citing it as a distraction from the fight to destroy the terrorist networks that killed his brother.

Not bad for someone turning 35 today.

(more below)

By contrast, Rice’s U.S. Senate opponent, Jim Inhofe, has been in politics for 40 years and has best served the special interests that back him.

His voting record has earned him the label of a “hard-core conservative” in an analysis by ontheissues.org, which also states that Inhofe, among other things, “Opposes” federal efforts to expand health care access, and “Strongly Opposes” finding alternatives to coal and oil for our energy needs.

His campaign contributors are described in his own words (from a 2006 Senate floor speech):

“I am reminded of a question the media often asks me about how much I have received in campaign contributions from the fossil fuel industry. My unapologetic answer is ‘Not Enough'[.]”

Meanwhile, Andrew Rice keeps working toward our future.  But Andrew sees more that he can do in his lifetime of service.  He’s running for U.S. Senate to continue his life’s work of fighting for everyday people, of listening to their hopes and concerns, and taking action to address the issues that affect them most.

Will you wish Andrew a happy birthday by buying a piece of his campaign?  It seems fitting to ask that you send him $35 today.  Give him the gift that keeps on giving, and the gift that gives back to all of us – because if Andrew Rice is elected to the U.S. Senate, we’ll all be better off.

Best,

Karina Henderson

Rice for US Senate

andrewforoklahoma.com

http://actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18228

Senate Republicans

1. Virginia***

Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore

Total Raised — $6,300,000 v. $402,000

Cash On Hand – $4,380,000 v. $208,000

(Likely Democratic Pick-up)

2. New Mexico***

Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce

Total Raised — $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000

Cash On Hand – $2,600,000 v. $854,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

3. New Hampshire

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu

Total Raised — $2,566,000v. $4,143,000

Cash On Hand – $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

4. Colorado***

Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer

Total Raised — $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000

Cash On Hand – $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

———————————————————————

5. Alaska

Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens

Total Raised — $280,000 v. $2,071,000

Cash On Hand – $250,000 v. $1,300,000

(Toss Up)

6. Minnesota

Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman

Total Raised — $9,359,000 v. $8,640,000

Cash On Hand – $3,500,000 v. $7,000,000

(Toss Up)

7. Oregon

State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith

Total Raised — $1,371,000v. $4,274,000

Cash On Hand — $474,000 v. $5,100,000

(Toss Up)

8. Maine

Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins

Total Raised — $3,656,000 v. $5,068,000

Cash On Hand – $2,700,000 v. $4,500,000

(Toss Up)

———————————————————————

9. North Carolina

State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole

Total Raised — $562,000 v. $4,855,000

Cash On Hand – $515,000 v. $2,664,000

(Lean Republican Retention)(12/31/07 Fundraising Numbers)

10. Mississippi-B***

Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker

Total Raised — $448,000 v. $3,000,000

Cash On Hand – $337,000 v. $2,750,000

(Lean Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

11. Oklahoma

State Senator Andrew Rice v. Incumbent Senator James Inhofe

Total Raised — $970,000 v. $3,168,000

Cash On Hand – $597,000 v. $2,221,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

12. Idaho***

Former Congressman Larry LaRocco v. Lieutenant Governor James Risch

Total Raised — $555,000 v. $1,129,000

Cash On Hand – $253,000 v. $935,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

13. Georgia

State Representative Jim Martin v. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss

Total Raised — $346,000 v. $4,407,000

Cash On Hand – $333,000 v. $3,637,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

14. Kansas

Former Congressman Jim Slattery v. Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts

Total Raised — $289,000 v. $3,205,323

Cash On Hand – $286,000 v. $2,986,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

15. Nebraska***

Scott Kleeb v. Former Governor Mike Johanns

Total Raised — $274,000 v. $2,018,000

Cash On Hand – $281,000 v. $1,330,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

16. Kentucky

Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell

Total Raised — $808,000 v. $7,908,000

Cash On Hand – $666,000 v. $7,741,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

Senate Democrats

1. Louisiana

Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu v. State Treasurer John Kennedy

Total Raised — $5,447,000 v. $1,907,000

Cash On Hand – $4,564,000 v. $1,623,000

(Likely Democratic Retention)

Notes:

– *** = Open Seat

– I separated the two parties and their respective competitive/potentially competitive races  

– I rounded all the fundraising numbers down to the nearest $1,000

– North Carolina doesn’t report fundraising numbers till 4/24/08

– DSCC and NRSC haven’t made public their March fundraising numbers

– The long lines are to breakdown the tiers that I see the Senate races in.  

– I am trying to predict the spending of the DSCC and NRSC when providing my projected outcome – I don’t believe in saying, “Well, if the election were held today…” because if the election were held today, that means for the past two months we’d be getting commercials from both sides.  Simple as that.  

Democratic Offensive

Tier 1 = VA, NM, NH, CO

Tier 2 = AK, MN, OR, ME

Tier 3 = NC, MS

Tier 4 = OK, ID

Tier 5 = GA, KS, NE, KY

Republican Offensive

Tier 1 = LA

Overview

– 6 Republican Senators Retired (CO, ID, MS, NE, NM, VA)

– Republican Seats: 1 Likely Dem Pickup – 3 Lean Dem Pickup – 4 Toss Ups – 2 Lean Rep Retention – 6 Likely Rep Retention – 7 Safe Reps

– Democratic Seats: 1 Lean Dem Retention – 11 Safe Dems

– Current Breakdown of the US Senate: 51D – 49R

– Prediction = 6-9 Democratic Pickups in the US Senate

– Projected Breakdown of the US Senate: 59D – 41R

Fundraising for the Respective Committees(2/29/08)

DSCC v. NRSC

Total Raised — $64,100,000 v. $39,300,000

Cash On Hand – $32,800,000 v. $15,300,000

Here in Kentucky’s First District, during the failed do-nothing 109th Congress and well before, Exxon Ed Whitfield served as a loving rubber-stamp to every failed policy of Mitch McConnell and George W. Bush. In Iraq, these three managed to send our troops into the wrong country on the wrong mission. Worse than that, they showed the ultimate in disrespect to our troops by sending them there without proper training, planning, and most important for the welfare of our troops, equipment.  

Now it seems that Exxon Eddie is praising the failed efforts of himself, and his mentors Mitch McConnell and George W. Bush. From Ryan for Kentucky:

Paducah, KY – April 11, 2008 – Representative Ed Whitfield chose April 10th, 2008, just after General Petraeus was grilled by the Senate Armed Services Committee, as a convenient opportunity to remember Kentucky’s men and women in the military.  He expressed his disapproval of any withdrawal plan to bring our troops home from the ill-conceived war in Iraq by repeating the administration’s talking point that “gains brought on as a result of the surge can just as easily be lost should Congress fail to give our commanders and troops the authority and tools they need to complete their mission”.  Indeed, this Bush administration tag line is a strange “concern”, as our troops were never given the “tools necessary to complete their mission”.

Luckily for our troops, not everyone running for this office is too good to meet them personally and hear their concerns. I would like to share a story from our troops told to Heather on the campaign trail:

While on the campaign trail, I spoke with an Army Veteran who shared a story which exemplifies that our troops have been ill equipped from day one.  Last summer this Army Veteran and his friends stopped at a gas station in Cadiz, KY on his way home from the Fancy Farm Political Picnic.  There they met a woman and her husband, a 101st Airborne soldier from Ft. Campbell, KY. This soldier’s unit was preparing for their third deployment to Iraq while the soldier was leaving for his first tour.  The veteran wished him luck and out of genuine concern, asked him if he and his fellow soldiers had all the equipment they needed to fight.  The soldier laughed and said that that very morning his company had visited a civilian junkyard in order to scavenge donated scrap metal to weld to their Humvees.  The 101st Airborne, an aggressive front-line unit on their third deployment, did not have enough uparmored vehicles to help their troops survive IED attacks.  Remember, this was at a time when Congress was essentially giving the administration blank checks to prosecute the war.  This is just one instance of the lack of respect that Mr. Whitfield and the Bush administration have for the safety of our troops in combat.  These two entities are lock step in acknowledging armed service members when it is convenient to their agendas, but tend to forget their needs while in combat and after their service.

It is disgraceful that Whitfield, Bush, and McConnell are more than willing to stand in front of our troops for a photo-op while they deliver their empty talking points on Iraq, and respecting our troops. Unfortunately the truth they won’t admit is from day 1 this Administration, rubber-stamped by Whitfield and McConnell have disrespected our troops in every way possible. Whether or not you believe in the mission in Iraq, the fact of the matter is these men sent our troops into this country without the training, equipment and planning to do their jobs. While our troops have performed wonderfully, their leaders in Washington, including Whitfield and McConnell FAILED!!

Whitfield and McConnell were too busy being partisan hacks, and upholding every failed vision of the Bush Administration that they failed our troops in their most important solemn duty to them. They FAILED to provide any kind of oversight into the blank check they issued President Bush, and they FAILED in holding him accountable for his actions. They FAILED our troops and allowed our injured to come home and heal with cock-roaches in Walter Reed at the whim of the failed policies of this administration.

They were so busy with their partisan hackery, nothing, not even the welfare of our returning injured troops was more important than desperately attempting to validate the failed policies of President Bush, policies they had provided no oversight on, and ideed, policies they had rubber-stamped.

However, Whitfield’s blatant disregard and disrespect for our troops did not end there. It appears while praising the troops in Iraq, Exxon Eddie forgot some others:

In yet another gross act of disrespect, while praising the Ft. Campbell soldiers serving in Iraq, Whitfield completely ignored the 7,200 101stAirborne soldiers currently serving in Afghanistan.  Today, on the 101st day of 2008, the headquarters of the 101st Airborne Division took command of NATO’s Regional Command East sector of Afghanistan from the 82nd Airborne Division.  It is not surprising these brave soldiers slipped Whitfield’s mind.  They are fighting a forgotten enemy, Osama bin Laden, in a forgotten war.  They deserve our praise and support as well, and they deserve the leadership that will allow them to complete their mission and return home to Kentucky.

Now, this sort of spells out Whitfield’s view on this “War on Terror”. He stubbornly rubber-stamps partisan hackery, disrespecting our troops all along the way to desperately justify a failed policy. Then, he forgets the troops in Afganistan, who are actually trying to find and fight the entities that actually attacked us on 9-11. I have a message for Whitfield, McConnell and Bush. You may have forgotten Osama bin Laden and let him walk away scot-free, to make video tapes mocking our troops and their sacrifices, but Americans and Kentuckians surely haven’t.

The best way Americans can honor the sacrifice of our troops and veterans is to elect leaders that will respect them. Heather Ryan wants a sane policy in Iraq:

The War in Iraq:

As a veteran of the United States Navy, and an active member of the American Legion, my dedication to the men and women in uniform is unyielding.  The current service member is highly skilled, highly trained and highly ignored by this administration.  The American people

were duped into an ill-conceived war under false pretenses and the administration continues to over utilize a national guard system which was never intended to be used for sustained combat missions.  Congress must insist that an exit strategy be planned and implemented immediately.  By the Bush Administration’s own account, the nation will be forced to reinstate the draft system again should we continue to over-tax our National Guard with sustained combat.  I am not a supporter of reinstating the draft for as history clearly shows us, the draft is merely for those of us who are not wealthy enough to buy our way out of

active duty.  We must not allow this ill planned and ill executed war to continue to destroy the brave men and women in our armed forces while simultaneously placing our nation at a heightened risk with a limited national guard.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Better yet, Heather Ryan as a veteran believes we should respect ALL our district’s service men and women serving, and our veterans that have served:

So, to the Screaming Eagles of the 101st Division Airborne (Air Assault); to the 4th Brigade Combat Team, the 101st Combat Aviation Brigade, Division HQ, and the 101st Sustainment Brigade, currently serving in Afghanistan as part of Combined Joint Task Force 101. And to the Division’s 1st, 2nd and 3rd Brigade Combat Teams, currently serving in Iraq: We keep you in our hearts and thoughts, always.

Being a veteran after proudly serving her nation in the United States Navy, this issue is not a talking point or a photo-op to Heather, it is personal.

We need Heather Ryan in the Congress to fight not only for a sane policy in Iraq, but to fight for the benefits and respect our troops and veterans have earned. We need sane voices that will provide oversight into any future wars and the funding for them, instead of blindly following in a partisan trance. We need REAL leaders in Washington, not the failed policies of rubber-stamping partisan hackery.

We can win this race in Kentucky’s First!!! All we need are the resources to introduce the 63% of registered Democrats to the horrible record Exxon Ed Whitfield has amassed in their names. A record of FAILURE for our troops, veterans, and citizens. Please help us get the resources we need to get the word out on our great candidate, Heather Ryan, and our FAILED Congressman Exxon Ed Whitfield.

I have set a goal of raising $1500 for Heather online by May 20, and am very close to halfway there. Won’t you please chip in and help us get our message out? Your generous contribution will go to work immediately to expand our Congressional majority with an awesome grassroots Democrat who isn’t afraid to fight for us!! Please go here and help, no amount it too small:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

With your help Heather Ryan will be fighting alongside our next President for a sane policy in Iraq, and will provide much needed leadership in our Congress!!!

A lot has happened in the Democratic Primary for the Senate seat of Kentucky. Already, we have seen Greg Stumbo and Andrew Horne step aside. The consensus now seems to be that Bruce Lunsford should be the nominee for Kentucky’s Senate race. However, it seems another candidate has stepped foward as a true Democratic voice in this race. Now, it seems Greg Fischer is making his move in this race.

First, Greg Fischer has showed that he can raise funds. One of the main reason I believe that Lunsford was recruited was because he could self-fund. However, this story shows that Fischer can self-fund too, and raise seperate funds to boot:

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Greg Fischer says his upcoming campaign finance report will show that he’s collected more than $500,000 from donors in addition to the $510,000 of his own money he has pumped into his bid.

Of course, Greg was encouraged by the numbers:

“Dollar by dollar, voter by voter, momentum is growing stronger in every region of the state. We are confident that our campaign is positioned to defeat Bruce Lunsford on May 20,” Fischer said in a statement. “Voters are beginning to realize I am the real Democrat offering real change.”

http://www.gregfischer.com/ind…

Fischer is going to begin running T.V. in the state soon, about a month before the May 20 primary. I think when Kentucky Democrats get to know him a little better, they are going to like what they see.

Greg has also spoken out for a sane policy in Iraq. He recently took McConnell to task on that issue:

In 2002, Mitch McConnell handed President Bush a blank check for operations in Iraq – a war that was ill-conceived, ill-advised and terribly mismanaged. We have now been in Iraq longer than we were in World War II. To date, there have been more than 4,000 American military casualties. Over 30,000 U.S. soldiers have been injured. By the end of 2007, the war in Iraq cost American taxpayers more than $500 billion. Kentucky’s share of the bill: $3.5 billion – money that could have been invested in our economy, built 358 new elementary schools, provided 593,000 Kentucky students with college scholarships, delivered health care benefits to 970,000 Kentuckians, built miles of new roads and bridges or saved thousands of homeowners from foreclosure.

Today, Mitch McConnell still supports President Bush’s never ending war in Iraq, while continuing to play partisan political games and obstructing every opportunity to reach a bipartisan plan to end the war once and for all in Iraq.

Greg Fischer believes it’s time to bring our soldiers home from Iraq in a swift, safe and responsible manner. Our brave men and women have done everything we have asked of them and are still fighting a courageous fight. They put their lives on the line for us everyday and we owe them and their families an end to this war. Washington has failed them.

Although Greg will fight to begin a responsible draw down of our forces in Iraq and end the war, he knows we need to refocus our efforts in Afghanistan where Al Qaeda and Taliban are experiencing a resurgence.  That’s where Osama Bin Laden and the real war against terrorism is and needs to be fought.

He has endorsed A Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq found here:

http://www.responsibleplan.com/

Greg also believes we must respect our returning heros. He endorses the G.I. Bill for the 21st century:

For our returning Veterans, Greg will make it a top priority to ensure that when veterans return home they are treated like the heroes they are. He will work to provide them and their families with benefits designed to meet the needs of today’s soldiers and their families. That is why Greg supports the bipartisan G.I. Bill for the 21st Century.  

The G.I. Bill for the 21st Century would repeal unfair tax burdens on military families and provide Veterans with the benefits they deserve; affordable health care, education and job training, strengthen our support for our men and women in uniform, and improve benefits for our National Guard and Reservists.

Most importantly, it will modernize and enhance the GI Bill Education and Job Training Programs to provide the full cost of tuition and fees, and a living allowance for 36 months of schooling, for those who enlist for four years of active duty military service. They have fought to defend our freedoms. They have fought to defend our families. Our Veterans deserve it.

The G.I. Bill for the 21st Century has been endorsed by the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), Vietnam Veterans of America (VVA), the Air Force Sergeants Association (AFSA), the Enlisted Association of the National Guard of the United States (EANGUS), Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA), and the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC).

http://www.gregfischer.com/ind…

After the disappointments of the early primary season, I think that Greg Fischer as emerging as a serious candidate. He has shown his ability to not only self-fund, but to raise funds as well. Most importantly, he is showing that he can be depended on to fight for a Democratic vision for this country.

I hope Kentuckians and Americans will get behind Greg to defeat Bruce Lunsford, and then Mitch McConnell in the fall. Although he is a political newcomer the last month is showing him to be a serious candidate who can make a serious run at Mitch McConnell. Best of all, he will do it as a Democrat.

Find out more about Greg Fischer here:

http://www.gregfischer.com/

Support Greg Fischer in his fight for Kentucky Democrats here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/go…

We can still have an awesome Senator from Kentucky so please join in the fight for Greg Fischer!!

Today, it was my plan to start focusing less on presidential diaries and more on Congressional races. But, thanks to John McCain, I have the opportunity to write a diary that focuses on a little of both. As we all know, the corrupt Rick Renzi is retiring to face a grand jusry, but it gets even better. McCain is doing his best to help Democrats win this seat According to the progressive blog Down With Tyranny! McCain has decided to endorse a candidate who used his ifluence to get his rapist son out of jail.

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Complicating the matter further, is that McCain, in a pique of typically hysterical vindictive pigheadedness, forced the local AZ-01 Republican Party to jettison their favorite candidate to try to hold Renzi’s seat, Kris Mayes (who McCain holds a grudge against because she once worked for the Arizona Republic), in favor of a McCain crony, Ken Bennett. The problem with Bennett isn’t that he’s a McCain crony but that he is widely hated in AZ-01 for using his influence to free his son from punishment after the younger Bennett was convicted of using broomsticks and flashlights in 40 incidents of rape against 18 young boys, many repeatedly.

In case there is any doubt about Clifton Bennet’s guilt.

The son of state Senate President Ken Bennett admitted in court Monday to assaulting middle school boys with a broomstick in their rectal areas, but a judge allowed charges against him to be reduced from 18 to one, and he may avoid jail.

Three of the 18 victims, all boys between the ages of 11 and 15, are from Tucson, and the families are angry that 18-year-old Clifton Bennett and co-defendant Kyle Wheeler, 19, were not charged with sexual assault.

So Mr. Straight Talk does not really care about crime, or victims’ rights. He doesn’t even care about his own party. America needs to know the truth about McCain. But in the meantime, we owe him out thanks for the assist in turning this seat blue.  

Recently the small Western Kentucky town of Benton had their annual Tater Day. What is Tater Day you may ask? Well, it is a festival that started in the late 1800s as a celebration of the first day of spring. Residents of Western Kentucky would gather together and trade sweet potatoes. It features a parade, that circles the town and a Ms. Tater Day pageant.

It also has political overtones and many candidates down through the years have come to meet their constituents in Western Kentucky and participate in the Tater Day parade.

This year, Heather Ryan and Greg Fischer were there to meet the fine people of Benton, and participate in the parade. Their opponents, Exxon Ed Whitfield, Mitch McConnell and Bruce Lunsford decided not to participate. Personally, I believe that a Representative or Senator should take every opportunity to meet the people they want to represent.

Well, two of the hardest working candidates to expand our Congressional majorities are Heather Ryan and Greg Fischer. Ryan is running against Exxon Ed Whitfield in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. Here she is meeting with a veteran constituent:

Unlike Exxon Ed Whitfield, Heather Ryan believes in meeting the veterans of our district and hearing their concerns. Of course Exxon Eddie doesn’t want to meet them because he voted against them. Heather would never vote against the welfare of our veterans as Exxon Eddie has here:

Whitfield voted for budget that cut veteran’s programs.  Voted for final passage of the $2.6 trillion budget conference report for 2006.  The report cut Medicaid spending by $10 Billion, every penny of the Social Security surplus, increased the national deficit by $167.5 Billion over 5 years and paved the way for drilling in ANWR.  Furthermore, the conference report cut fudning for veterans’ healthcare by $13.5 Billion over 5 years.  Yet the budget still found room for $106 BILLION in tax breaks for those who need it least.  [HRC 95, Vote #149, 4/28/2005; Passed Republicans; 214-15: Democrats; 0-195; Independent; 0-1]

And here:

Whitfield voted against a $53 Million boost for Veteran’s Health Care and Benefits on MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 2005 (FAILED BY 1 VOTE – WHITFIELD’S VOTE).  The bill would have aded $8 million for combat-related trauma care, $6 million for poly-trauma centersto support wounded trops once they return to their homes, $9 million for VA medical and prosthetic research and $7 million for 100 additional staff to process claims for compenstation and pension benefits.  Finally, the amendment would provide $23 million to help approximately 4100 spouses of service members with children whose spouse died during the War on Terrorism between September 11, 2001 and November 30, 2004 by making them eligible for Dependency and Indemnity Compensation.  The amendment failed, 213-214 [HR 2528, Vote #224, 5/26/2005; Failed; Republicans; 19-210; Democrats; 193-4; Independent; 1-0]

You see, here at Ryan for Kentucky we believe in respecting our veterans with much more than talking points. We believe they have earned our respect, and all the benefits they and their families are entitled to. We consider it a disgrace that our Congressman rubber-stamped the Bush plan to send our soldiers to war without the proper training, equipment, and planning to accomplish their mission, and then allowed such disgraces as Walter Reed. Here is Heather’s take on respecting our veterans:

As a veteran of the United States Navy, and an active member of the American Legion, my dedication to the men and women in uniform is unyielding.  The current service member is highly skilled, highly trained and highly ignored by this administration.  The American people

were duped into an ill-conceived war under false pretenses and the administration continues to over utilize a national guard system which was never intended to be used for sustained combat missions.  Congress must insist that an exit strategy be planned and implemented immediately. By the Bush Administration’s own account, the nation will be forced to reinstate the draft system again should we continue to over-tax our National Guard with sustained combat.  I am not a supporter of reinstating the draft for as history clearly shows us, the draft is merely for those of us who are not wealthy enough to buy our way out of

active duty.  We must not allow this ill planned and ill executed war to continue to destroy the brave men and women in our armed forces while simultaneously placing our nation at a heightened risk with a limited national guard.

Every day we see reports about how our veterans services have fallen into severe disrepair.  The men and women who served this country deserve better.  Our VA system needs a complete overhaul; from the GI Bill to health care to disability benefits, without a modernized system, we do those who served our country a grave disservice.  Veterans deserve better.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Of course, Heather is a fellow veteran, so her views stem from experience.

Here is Heather decorating the Ryan for Kentucky van with a personal thank you note for Whitfield, McConnell, Bush, Cheney, and the Republicans for our $3.29 gas!!

I think she speaks for all of us with that thank you note!! Just to think, many in this country consider $3.29 gas cheap!!!

Heather is an awesome grassroots candidate who isn’t afraid to rub elbows with the average people she wishes to represent. Exxon Ed Whitfield was a no-show on Tater Day. Wanna see who Exxon Eddie sees fit to rub elbows with instead of veterans and his constituents?:

Well, that makes sense since Exxon Eddie has been an adoring rubber-stamp of W’s policies that hurt our veterans, while doling out hundreds of billions in corporate welfare to men like President Bush, and well himself!!!

Here is Heather and her daughter Ireland, our youngest member of Ryan for Kentucky, and future Democratic leader!!!:

Please help our grassroots campaign here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

Heather wasn’t the only awesome grassroots Democrat at Tater Day. The Progressive candidate for Senate, Greg Fischer also saw fit to meet the good folks of Benton and Western Kentucky. It seems his grassroots supporters were waiting:

Maybe they are so excited because Greg Fischer will fight for the Transformational change that will ensure all Kentuckians have access to healthcare:

Since career politician Mitch McConnell took office, the number of Kentuckians without health insurance has skyrocketed to 520,000. And currently there are 47 million Americans uninsured; the health care system in the United States is broken.  An inefficient delivery system combined with non-patient focused bureaucratic barriers has caused health care costs to spiral out of control.

A single, serious injury or illness can be financially devastating for an insured, tax paying citizen.  By the year 2010, healthcare cost as a percentage of gross domestic product is estimated to be 20 percent in the U.S. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services estimate that by 2017, healthcare spending per person will approximately double to $13,000 per person, and total U.S. health care spending will double to more than $4 trillion. This level of spending is simply unsustainable.

Attempts by politicians to address the issues have largely been ineffective as a result of the failure to consider hard facts and predictions, some based on concrete data from our own government organizations and agencies. The common notion that health care in the United States, although expensive, is ranked at the top globally, is a myth. As an example, America’s infant and maternal mortality rates currently rank below France, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Sweden, all with lower health care costs.  

Transformational change is needed to address this crisis. A system is needed that not only serves as a catalyst for health care quality improvements, but also reduces the health care cost on businesses and individuals. A new system-understood by all American citizens and focused on prevention and public health-is needed.

The good news is health care solutions exist to spark this change. Additionally, our current national spending of $2.2 trillion provides adequate funding for the solutions.

Greg Fischer’s first legislative priority will be passing a bill that prevents members of Congress from accepting their gold-plated tax-payer funded health care coverage until universal health care is a reality for every American. Maybe then we can get started on real change for health care in America.

Solutions must be value-based and built around these principles:  

Universal health care access for all citizens- All Americans deserve the dignity of quality health care that guarantees eligibility, is affordable and portable, preserves the private practice of medicine, and allows freedom to choose among doctors and other health care providers.

System modernization – We must improve the utilization of health care system dollars to lower health care delivery costs and improve patient safety. Involving all health care providers in the development of standards for electronic health information management is one example of common sense system modernization.

Wellness and prevention Because a significant part of health care costs in America is driven by behavior, a focus on improving personal health and prevention of serious diseases such as obesity, diabetes, cancer, and coronary disease is imperative. The creation of reimbursement incentives around wellness and prevention not only improves quality of life but will also help to lessen serious laterstage illnesses.

Innovation – Americans are the world’s most innovative citizens. We can encourage innovation and reduce costs by removing bureaucratic barriers for the development of less invasive treatments, better medications and devices for testing and treatment.

http://www.gregfischer.com/ind…

Here is Greg looking remarkably at ease among the voters of Western Kentucky despite chasing millionaire establishment candidate Bruce Lunsford in the primary, and millionaire Mitch McConnell when he wins the primary. Neither opponent saw fit to grace the good people of Western Kentucky with their prescense:

Wanna see where Bruce Lunsford’s sympathies lie?

Thats Ernie Fletcher, former corrupt Governor of Kentucky who Lunsford endorsed after losing the Democratic Primary to Ben Chandler in 2003.

Support Greg Fischer here:

http://actblue.com/entity/fund…

In Kentucky, we have two awesome candidates to expand our Congressional majorities with fighting Democrats who won’t be afraid to fight for us. Please help these campaigns as they both face millionaire oppositon, and the golden-plated smear machine of Mitch McConnell.

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!