Tag: 2008 Elections

After a number of requests in previous diaries here it is. The same style diary, the same methodology and the same layout so as to allow you dear reader to compare us to them!

So below the fold to see how the Repubs are doing in House candidate recruiting for 2008!

And remember part two of this series appears tomorrow, a Dem House update. A hint – three weeks ago we had 354 candidates.

276 House races have confirmed Republican candidates – yep only 276!!! So as not to give any Repub trolls any hints this diary is very light on for analysis.

However it goes without saying that from these numbers the Repubs are really struggling to find candidates for House races in 2008. Wonder why? Just look at the number of unfilled races in California and New York.

Before we crack open the bubbly however a few cautionary notes.

I didn’t trawl through Repub blogs as much as I would through ours (try it yourself and you will see why!)

Very few State Repub Party sites had up to date lists of candidates. More Dem State Party sites did.

The Repubs don’t have a Swing State Project or 2008 Race Tracker wiki so again it is harder to find their candidates.

Expect a lot more of their 2006 candidates to step up as sacrificial lambs later in the cycle.

I am sure I have missed some candidates but not many as I FEC searched all 2006 candidates as well as checking out their websites for updates.

** Despite all that hedging we are soooo far in front of them!!!**

So here is where we are at (Democratic Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 74

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 4

Districts with rumoured candidates – 21

Districts without any candidates – 134

The Democratic held districts with confirmed Republican challengers are as follows:

AL-05 – R+6,

AZ-05 – R+4,

AZ-07 – D+10,

AZ-08 – R+1,

CA-05 – D+14,

CA-08 – D+36,

CA-09 – D+38,

CA-10 – D+9,

CA-11 – R+3,

CA-17 – D+17,

CA-23 – D+9,

CA-29 – D+12,

CA-43 – D+13,

CA-47 – D+5,

CA-53 – D+12,

CT-02 – D+8,

CT-05 – D+4,

FL-02 – R+2,

FL-11 – D+11,

FL-16 – R+2,

FL-22 – D+4,

FL-23 – D+29,

GA-08 – R+8,

GA-12 – D+2,

GA-13 – ?,

IL-01 – D+35,

IL-03 – D+10,

IL-08 – R+5,

IL-09 – D+20,

IL-12 – D+5,

IN-01 – D+8,

IN-02 – R+4,

IN-07 – D+9,

IN-08 – R+9,

IN-09 – R+7,

IA-02 – D+7,

KS-02 – R+7,

KS-03 – R+4,

KY-03 – D+2,

ME-01 – D+6,

MD-04 – D+30,

MD-08 – D+20,

MA-04 – D+17,

MA-06 – D+10,

MI-01 – R+2,

MI-05 – D+12,

MN-01 – R+1,

MN-05 – D+21,

MO-03 – D+18,

MO-05 – D+12,

NV-01 – D+9,

NH-01 – R+0,

NH-02 – D+3,

NY-01 – D+3,

NY-19 – R+1,

NY-20 – R+3,

NY-22 – D+6,

NC-07 – R+3,

NC-11 – R+7,

OH-10 – D+6,

OH-18 – R+6,

PA-04 – R+3,

PA-10 – R+8,

PA-12 – D+5,

PA-17 – R+7,

TX-09 – R+21,

TX-22 – R+15,

TX-23 – R+4,

TX-29 – D+8,

VA-08 – D+14,

VA-09 – R+7,

WA-02 – D+3,

WV-03 – D+0,

WI-08 – R+4,

The following Democratic districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:

HI-01 – D+7,

ME-02 – D+4,

OR-05 – D+1,  

WA-07 – D+30,

The following Democratic districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

CA-06 – D+21,

CA-12 – D+22,

CA-20 – D+5,

CA-37 – D+27,

CO-02 – D+8,

KY-06 – R+7,

MD-05 – D+9,

MD-07 – D+25,

MA-05 – D+9,

MA-09 – D+15,

MN-08 – D+4,

NY-24 – R+1,

NC-13 – D+2,

ND-AL – R+13,

PA-07 – D+4,

PA-08 – D+3,

PA-11 – D+5,

RI-01 – D+16,

SD-AL – R+10,

TX-18 – D+23,

WA-01 – D+7,

And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured GOP candidate:

AL-07 – D+17,

AZ-04 – D+14,

AR-01 – D+1,

AR-02 – R+0,

AR-04 – D+0,

CA-01 – D+10,

CA-07 – D+19,

CA-13 – D+22,

CA-14 – D+18,

CA-15 – D+14,

CA-16 – D+16,

CA-18 – D+3,

CA-27 – D+13,

CA-28 – D+25,

CA-30 – D+20,

CA-31 – D+30,

CA-32 – D+17,

CA-33 – D+36,

CA-34 – D+23,

CA-35 – D+33,

CA-36 – D+11,

CA-38 – D+20,

CA-39 – D+13,

CA-51 – D+7,

CO-01 – D+18,

CO-03 – R+6,

CO-07 – D+2,

CT-01 – D+14,

CT-03 – D+12,

FL-03 – D+16,

FL-17 – D+35,

FL-19 – D+21,

FL-20 – D+18,

GA-02 – D+2,

GA-04 – D+22,

GA-05 – ?,

HI-02 – D+10,

IL-02 – D+35,

IL-04 – D+13,

IL-05 – D+18,

IL-07 – D+35,

IL-17 – D+5,

IA-01 – D+5,

IA-03 – D+1,

LA-02 – D+28,

LA-03 – R+5,

MD-02 – D+8,

MD-03 – D+7,

MA-01 – D+15,

MA-02 – D+11,

MA-03 – D+11,

MA-07 – D+18,

MA-08 – D+31,

MA-10 – D+8,

MI-12 – D+13,

MI-13 – D+32,

MI-14 – D+33,

MI-15 – D+13,

MN-04 – D+13,

MN-07 – R+6,

MS-02 – D+10,

MS-04 – R+16,

MO-01 – D+26,

MO-04 – R+11,

NJ-01 – D+14,

NJ-06 – D+12,

NJ-08 – D+12,

NJ-09 – D+13,

NJ-10 – D+34,

NJ-12 – D+8,

NJ-13 – D+23,

NM-03 – D+6,

NY-02 – D+7,

NY-04 – D+9,

NY-05 – D+18,

NY-06 – D+38,

NY-07 – D+28,

NY-08 – D+28,

FL-10 – D+14,

NY-10 – D+41,

NY-11 – D+40,

NY-12 – D+34,

NY-14 – D+26,

NY-15 – D+43,

NY-16 – D+43,

NY-17 – D+21,

NY-18 – D+10,

NY-21 – D+9,

NY-27 – D+7,

NY-28 – D+15,

NC-01 – D+9,

NC-02 – R+3,

NC-04 – D+6,

NC-12 – D+11,

OH-06 – D+0,

OH-09 – D+9,

OH-11 – D+33,

OH-13 – D+6,

OH-17 – D+14,

OK-02 – R+5,

OR-01 – D+6,

OR-03 – D+18,

OR-04 – D+0,

PA-01 – D+36,

PA-02 – D+39,

PA-13 – D+8,

PA-14 – D+22,

RI-02 – D+13,

SC-05 – R+6,

SC-06 – D+11,

TN-04 – R+3,

TN-05 – D+6,

TN-06 – R+4,

TN-07 – R+12,

TN-09 – D+18,

TX-15 – D+3,

TX-16 – D+9,

TX-17 – R+18,

TX-20 – D+8,

TX-25 – D+1,

TX-27 – R+1,

TX-28 – R+1,

TX-30 – D+26,

UT-02 – R+17,

VT-AL – D+8,

VA-03 – D+18,

WA-03 – D+0,

WA-06 – D+6,

WA-09 – D+6,

WV-01 – R+6,

WI-02 – D+13,

WI-03 – D+3,

WI-04 – D+20,

WI-07 – D+2,

Woo hoo to the Democratic Party we are implementing the 50 State Strategy in spades whilst the GOP are playing rats jumping off a sinking ship.

Diane Benson, Rep. Don Young’s foe in 2006, just released a new poll (PDF) today showing the scandal-plagued incumbent trailing both Benson and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz, who are vying for the Democratic nomination.  Both Dems also lead Young’s Republican primary challenger, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux.

Craciun Research Group for Diane Benson (10/27-11/02):

Diane Benson (D): 45.3%

Don Young (R-inc): 36.7%

Undecided: 15.6%

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49.7%

Don Young (R-inc): 35.1%

Undecided: 13.8%

Diane Benson (D): 45.0%

Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 12.3%

Undecided: 38.2%

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49.0%

Gabrielle LeDoux (R):  13.8%

Undecided: 32.9%

(MoE: ±4.9%)

If this poll is remotely accurate, Young is screwed.  An earlier poll, conducted in August by Ivan Moore Research, showed Young trailing Berkowitz by nearly 6 points.  The environment hasn’t exactly improved for young since then, so who knows.

The poll also shows a reasonably close primary race between Benson and Berkowitz, with former Alaska Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalfe in third:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 28.6%

Diane Benson (D): 21.1%

Jake Metcalfe (D): 8.3%

Undecided: 33.8%

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Interestingly, 6% of respondents volunteered the name of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who appears set to challenge Sen. Ted Stevens (R) next year.  Another Ivan Moore poll, released last month, showed Berkowitz leading Benson by a 26 point margin.

This is shaping up to be an explosive race.

PS: Check out Young’s new campaign website.  Get a load of his slogan: “No One Has Done More, No One Will Do More.”  Who does he think he is?  Superman?

Could Indiana be due for a major political upheaval in 2008?  A new poll confirms that incumbent Republican Gov. “My Man” Mitch Daniels is standing on shaky ground.

Selzer & Co. for the Indianapolis Star-WTHR TV (Nov. 13-16, likely votes):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 44%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 43%

Undecided: 13%

Jim Schellinger (D): 44%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 40%

Undecided: 16%

(MoE: ±4.6%)

So we’ve got Daniels, an incumbent Governor, well under 50% against someone who has been out of the political spotlight for quite some time (JLT) and someone who’s never held an elected office before (Schellinger, an Indianapolis architect).  

Want some gravy for those trimmings?  Mitch’s approve/disapprove rating stands at a rough 40%/50% and 57% think that the state is headed in the wrong direction.

Daniels won’t be easy to beat by any means, but these and other poll results showing that more Hoosiers plan to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate than they do for the Republican nominee are leaving many wondering if blue dreams could come true next year.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Give thanks that this is not your party:

Nov. 20, 2007:

[New York state Assemblyman Greg] Ball is concerned about the electoral outlook for the GOP in the 2008 election cycle.

“George Bush has not only hurt the Republican Party, he’s left the nation without leadership,” the Republican state lawmaker said. “It’s going to be a tough year to run as a Republican at the national level.”

Nov. 20, 2007:

“There’s a big difference between federal and state politics. In Trenton, Democrats had a chance to govern and they did not do well. In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War,” [NJ GOP Assembly Minority Whip Jon] Bramnick told PolitickerNJ.com.

Nov. 19, 2007:

“It should be an area of deep concern to Republicans of all stripes. Once you lose the vital center, then you begin to lose the claim that you are the majority party,” said former Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, a moderate Republican who retired in 2006.

He said that in more than four decades in political life, he’s never seen “a higher degree of partisanship or a higher level of intolerance for another point of view.”

Sept. 15, 2007:

“I believe for any Republican to win in 2008, they have to have a clean break and offer a dramatic, bold change,” [Newt Gingrich] said. “If we nominate somebody who has not done that… they’re very, very unlikely to win it.”

Apr. 11, 2007:

“The war in Iraq and public opposition to it has put a pall on Republicans,” said John C. Danforth, a former Republican senator from Missouri.

“My level of concern and dismay is very, very high,” said Mickey Edwards, a Republican former congressman from Oklahoma who is now a lecturer in public policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton. “It’s not that I have any particular problem with the people who are running for the Republican nomination. I just don’t know how they can run hard enough or fast enough to escape the gravitational pull of the Bush administration.”

“We don’t have any candidates in the field now who are compelling,” Mr. Edwards said, adding: “It’s going to be a tough year for us.”

Alan K. Simpson, a former Republican senator from Wyoming, said the party’s presidential candidates were being whipsawed as they tried to appeal to conservative voters who have a history of strong views on issues like abortion and gay rights. “These tests are destroying the Republican Party,” Mr. Simpson said.

Apr. 2, 2007:

“People are concerned and worried about the party’s prospects,” said Steve Duprey, former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP and a backer of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the White House race.

“There’s a certain nervousness I hear that if the war is going badly and we’re still in this intractable fight between a Democratic Congress and President Bush about the course of the war, we may have a tough time.”

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said, however, that the painful lessons of 2006 have yet to be learned. “I don’t think there has yet been a full appreciation for what just happened” in the November elections, Pawlenty said. “There remains an element of denial about the message that was just sent and the reality we face.”

What are you thankful for this Thanksgiving?

Cross-posted from Flapolitics.com
http://www.flapoliti…

Here are my rankings with explanations for November.

1. FL-08 (R+3), Incumbent Ric Keller

Keller is facing flak over his flip-flopping and parsing on Iraq. He’s also been criticized for flip-flopping on his term limits promise. Keller voted against Stem Cell Research, voted against SCHIP and children’s health care, against negotiation of prescription drugs, and has voted in lockstep with Republicans on a host of issues taking our liberties away. These terrible votes aren’t the only thing making Keller the most vulnerable Republican in Florida. The district has only a slight tilt to Republicans and has been leaning more toward Democrats in recent years. Unions have also launched ads as part of a $1.5 million campaign against Keller for his anti-children’s health care vote.

Keller will face challengers from both parties in the race, undermining the criticism he has faced. On the Democratic side, Mike Smith and 2006 candidate Charlie Stuart, have both jumped into the race. Whoever wins our primary is going to have a great shot at victory in the 8th district.

2. FL-24 (R+3) Incumbent Tom Feeney

This is another district that has been leaning more towards the Dems in recent years. It doesn’t hurt that Feeney has been absolutely crazy, including his calls to privatize Social Security. I mean this is the guy who walks around with a Conservative Score Card every day in his pocket. He’s been involved in scandal after scandal, including connections with convicted felon Jack Abramoff. Polls now show him under 50% support, in fact, at a low of 42% against Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas, with our candidate only having 19% name recognition. Speaking of our candidate, she’s a former state legislature and should be able to raise the money to compete. Feeney has also been the target of a $1.5 million ad campaign by Unions for his vote against SCHIP. Feeney is probably toast in 2008.

3. FL-15 (R+3) Incumbent Dave Weldon

Weldon kind of goes a long with Feeney. They are both out of their minds. I wonder how they were even elected, if people knew what they were getting at the time. Get this though, in 2006 Weldon faced an underfunded 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist in his reelection bid and won with only 56% of the vote. Now that says something. Prospects are looking bright for the future of this district. Darren Soto won a special election in a previously Republican-held house seat in Kississimee, which also takes in this US House district, earlier this year. The recent influx of Puerto Rican voters may help a Democrat win this seat. Unfortunately, there is no current high-profile Democratic challenger in the race. Steve Blythe is running, however, but it’s yet to be seen how his campaign will go. Personally, I would like someone who is going to be able to raise the funds necessary to win. We really need to get rid of Weldon.

4. FL-25 (R+4) Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart

Prospects also are looking brighter in this district. See here and here. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq to be the major issues of concern, not Cuba. Mario has straddled the hardline with the Bush Presidency. He’s continuously voted for more war and more surge. He’s voted against children’s health care and he’s voted against stem cell research. Currently, we have no challenger but the Draft Joe Garcia movement is off to a strong start. Should Joe get into the race, this would instantly become a very competitive race. Without a top-tier challenger, it would fall to less competitive.

5. FL-21 (R+6) Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart

This race is pretty much ditto the above except Raul Martinez is the potential candidate. This district also tilts a little more toward the Republicans than the 25th and probably hasn’t seen the recent growth like the 25th district that would favor the Dems.

6. FL-13 (R+4) Incumbent Vern Buchanan

Tempers still flare over the disputed 2006 election. I think that was probably our best chance of picking up the seat, but 2008 could offer a similar battle. Our candidate from last time, Christine Jennings, is running again and has already earned support from Emily’s List. The area has also seen a lot of growth and particularly that in Sarasota favors the Democrats, where we’ve picked up county seats recently. We have a good shot certainly of picking up this district, if the money is there for another run.

7. FL-18 (R+4) Incumbent Ros-Lehtinen

This race is similar to the other Miami districts. At the moment, however, there are no high-profile rumored Democratic candidates. If we can get a good candidate, then this race would be competivie.

8. FL-10 (D+1) Incumbent Bill Young

This race all depends on Bill Young retiring. If he retires, then this race instantly moves up to our #1 best pickup opportunity. If he doesn’t retire, then it’s probably over. For now, I’ll put this seat here until we hear more. As a note, State Senator Charlie Justice has been rumored to be running for the Democrats and he would be a formidable candidate.

9. FL-05 (R+5) Incumbent Brown-Waite

We still need a credible challenger. Either way it will be an uphill battle. Brown-Waite won 60% of the vote in 2006. She has faced the $1.5 million ad campaign though, targetted by Unions for her vote against children’s health care.

10. FL-09 (R+4) Gus Bilirakis

I just don’t see how we’re going to win this one, if we lost it in 2006 in an open race. Many candidates are lining up to take on the Republican incumbent, however, and the first reelection bid is always the most difficult, so we’ll see if we make this a good challenge.

All Others

FL-01, FL-04, FL-06, FL-07, FL-12, FL-14

We’re probably not going to win these, but it never hurts to try.

Overall, we still need candidates in FL-04, FL-06, FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25

I predict we will pick up 3 seats in 2008.

What are your rankings/predictions?

As SSP readers know, we’ve been keeping our eyes on the Miami area for Democratic pick-up opportunities in the House next year.  In particular, Democrats are hoping to draft former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez and Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director Joe Garcia to run against the Diaz-Balart brothers.  Both of these guys would be tough opponents in districts where Democrats haven’t put up much of a fight in years.  And now, from the Miami-Dade Democratic Executive Committee blog, comes the response:

For those not on the email list of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party, here’s what Joe Garcia said in response to the rush of interest in drafting him for Congress: “While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!” […]

Garcia’s email concluded with mention of the new web site draftgarcia.com, so I think it’s safe to say he’s not against running against Mario Diaz-Balart in District 25. In an interview Friday with Nicole Sandler on WINZ AM940, he said it was a matter of convincing his wife and young daughter that it was right for the family.

Expect a decision by the second half of January, he said. […]

Meanwhile, there’s a growing web site to draft Raul Martinez, former mayor of Hialeah, to run for Congressional District 21, the seat held by Lincoln Diaz-Balart. You can hear Joe Garcia encouraging Martinez to run, in that clip on WINZ. Again, a decision likely in January.

Garcia said he knows of a handful of possible candidates to run against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Congressional District 18, and he’s encouraging them to consider it strongly.

I don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to having two or perhaps even three barn-burning races in South Florida to follow next year.

Update: Over in the diaries, Progressive America has much more info on FL-25 and Joe Garcia.

There sure has been a deluge of “draft” websites encouraging prospective House and Senate candidates to run, hasn't there?  I don't really recall the number of draft sites back in the 2006 cycle, but I doubt it was nearly this many.  I’ll rattle off all the ones I can think of that have popped up this year.  First, the Democrats: 

GA-Sen: Wyc Orr

KY-Sen: Crit Luallen

KY-Sen: Andrew Horne

NC-Sen: Brad Miller

NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb

NM-Sen: Tom Udall

OK-Sen: Andrew Rice

OR-Sen: Peter DeFazio

TX-Sen: Rick Noriega 

VA-Sen: Mark Warner

FL-21: Raul Martinez

FL-25: Joe Garcia

NY-21: Ron Canestrari

WA-08: Ross Hunter

And now for team red:

KY-Sen: Larry Forgy 

VA-Sen: Peter Pace 

IL-15: Adam Kinzinger

Any other sites you can think of?

With Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young both embroiled in federal corruption investigations, could this story of Alaska in 2008 be encapsulated in the following quote?

“These disclosures have come as a real shock, because of revelations of what was going on, and because Alaskans have always felt that they are special,” said Vic Fisher, 83, one of four surviving members of the convention that only a half-century ago wrote Alaska’s state constitution. “And that this thing is ruining our national reputation.”

Stevens and Young are going to end up on the wrong side of the broom.

These are the words of the great rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel.

And it is these words, and this man, that have inspired rabbi Dennis Shulman (D) to challenge conservative extremist Scott Garrett (R) in NJ-5 this 2008.

Like his spiritual forefather, Shulman has concluded that he can no longer speak about God and remain silent on Iraq, as well as many of the other pressing and important issues of our times.

To learn more about Dr. Shulman, who is also a practicing psychologist, check out this recent New York Sun profile: Shulman Aims To Be First Blind Rabbi in Congress

Well 3 more districts now have candidates:
CO-06 – R+10,
IL-15 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,

And candidate filing season has started with Illinois filings which closed with us filling all 19 races a great start.

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

354 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 121 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 121
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 55

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
KY-02 – R+12.9,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-21 – R+6,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,
VA-02 – R+5.9,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-25 – R+4,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 12 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, VA-06, and WI-06; 5 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***