Tag: 2008 Elections

With the mini-flurry of GOP retirements on Friday by Jim Saxton and Babs Cubin, now is as good a time as any to take stock of the open seat situation in the House. There’s been quite a lot of movement since our last installment in October, with the retirements of GOP Reps. Regula, Hobson, Tancredo, and of course Saxton and Cubin. GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is joining Heather Wilson in the New Mexico Senate race, opening up both their seats in the House. It also appears that Rep. Tom Udall (D) will join them in the Senate race. In a rare Democratic announcement, we saw the decision of New York Rep. Mike McNulty (D) to retire for health reasons.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Retiring
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Retiring
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Running for President
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
NM-02	Pearce	R	R+5.7	61	Running for Senate
NM-03	Udall	D	D+5.5	60	Running for Senate
NY-21	McNulty	D	D+8.7	61	Retiring
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Retiring
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Retiring

That adds up to a whopping 16 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. It’s worth noting that at this point in the 2005, there were only 12 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. And there is still plenty of time left on the clock for more announcements, possibly from some of the folks listed below…

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
GA-10	Broun	R	R+12.7	61	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Mulling retirement

One deletion from this list was Rep. Buck McKeon (R-CA), whose campaign manager e-mailed us the following statement:

It was brought to my attention by our DC staff that you have the Congressman listed as a potential retirement. As the Congressman’s Campaign Manager I can assure you that Congressman McKeon is definitely running for reelection to the 25th CD in California.

Couldn’t be much clearer than that.

Any other retirement rumors flowing through your tubes?

UPDATE: I bet Tom Davis is the next in line to retire. From the WaPo:

He probably won’t run for reelection unless he concludes it is a path to the Senate in 2012, say his associates.

Roll Call has the scoop: crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young won’t announce his plans until the late spring of next year.

Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) remains quiet on his 2008 re-election plans, confirming Wednesday that any announcement on whether he will seek a 20th term likely will not be made until late next spring. […]

Despite the 76-year-old Congressman’s declaration, strategists in both parties have become increasingly convinced that he will choose to end his Capitol Hill career – potentially jeopardizing another Republican-held House seat. But until he says definitively what he will do, an air of suspended animation hangs over the campaign, with no contenders willing to step forward.

Federal candidates in Florida have until May 2 to register for the state’s Aug. 26 primary.

I bet he heads for the exit and pulls the ripcord.  My advice to state Sen. Charlie Justice, the Democrat most heavily rumored to enter the race if Young retires?  Enter soon and get a head start.  This D+1 seat will be ripe for the picking to a strong campaign.

Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell: 

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.  “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.”  Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win.  Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit.  We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him. 

Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.

(From the diaries. What’s your take? – promoted by James L.)

As we all watched in amazement last year, the Blue Wave in 2006 was so strong Republicans almost lost House districts in Wyoming and Idaho – two of the most conservative districts in the country (only 10-20 districts gave Bush a higher percentage of the vote in 2000 or 2004).  Not one Democratic seat was lost.

It couldn’t get better than that, could it?

Could it?

As the latest Democracy Corps memo puts it, “If Americans have ever been angrier with the state of the country, we have not witnessed it…”  And that anger is directed mostly at Republicans. 

Now, the numbers – first up, the Master Indicator – the Generic Ballot question.  The graph show the net Democratic advantage:

Click to enlarge.

Join me on the flip for a fourteen ways to look at the 2008 House races – and, in some cases, the mood of the country in general. 

Cross-posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Note: If I haven’t linked to polling data directly, you can find it at pollingreport.com. Unless I forgot to put in the link. 

The Vote

1.  Generic Ballot (+)  (The plus sign means an improvement from 2006 for Democrats)
The generic ballot question really has done a great job predicting the actual nationwide vote in congressional elections recently, when the results of all polls are averaged together.  The actual Democratic advantage has ended up about 3-4 points less than what the polls say in the final week for the past four elections in the Bush era.  So far, despite increasing unhappiness with Congress, Democrats continue to have a stunning advantage on the generic ballot. 

2. Battleground Districts (+)
Democracy Corps has once again been busy polling the House races in key areas of the country.  The Mountain West favors Democrats slightly more than they did in 2006, but the amazing numbers are in the 35 most vulnerable Republican districts.  Their poll numbers are lousy.  No wonder so many have decided to retire (more on that later).  The 35 most vulnerable House Democrats, on the other hand, are not so vulnerable at all, polling well ahead of generic Republicans (55 to 37). 

Party preference in key districts. Click to enlarge.

The Parties and Approval

3.  Bush Approval (+)
Bush’s approval continues on a downward trajectory, overall, and he is making sure Republicans go down with him.  In 2006 Bush’s approval was related to Republicans’ performance in House elections; there’s no guarantee for 2008, but lower approval ratings for Bush are worse for Republicans than higher approval ratings.  Note the map below for districts is from July 2007, when Bush’s approval was a few points lower than today.  (An archive of old approval ratings maps is now available on dKosopedia.)

Bush’s approval by state (10/07) and district (7/07).  Click to enlarge.

4.  Party Approval (-)
The Republican brand is trashed.  Democrats have a net approval that is less than November 2006, but still positive, and not unusually low.  Republicans remain way, way in the negative.

Net favorability of Democrats and Republicans.  Click to enlarge.

5.  Congressional Approval (=)
Nobody likes Congress, we’ve heard, but people like Congressional Republicans a fair amount less than they like Congressional Democrats.  According to ABC/Washington Post polls, people are most likely to blame Bush and the Republicans for blocking Democrats from doing what the people elected them to do.  The difference between the parties’ approval is still about the same as last year.

Approval of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and who is to blame for Congress not getting things done.  Click to enlarge.

6.  Party ID (+)
Republicans and Democrats are at about the same levels as 2006 according to Rasmussen, but when you include Independents who lean towards Democrats, Pew shows the leftward shift continuing into this year.

Two measures of partisan identification.  Click to enlarge.

The Issues

7.  Party Trust (+)
The public continues to swing to the Democratic side of issues, part of a longer-term trend.  Republicans used to be the party of Fiscal Discipline, but last July, an NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats have advantages on Reducing the Deficit (+25), Controlling Government Spending (+16), and Taxes (+9).  Well, so they’re left with God, Guns, and Gays, right?  No…. Rasmussen asked about Abortion (+7 average this year), and Newsweek about Guns (+2) and Same-Sex Marriage (+8).  And White Evangelical Christians are abandoning the party in droves – some to become Democrats, but mainly to become Independents or apolitical.  Then what about Terra, Terra, Terra, 9/11?  Still no…at best, Republicans come out even on questions about National Security and the so-called War on Terror.  On the issues voters claim are most important to them, Democrats have increased their advantage since 2006, and two issues that are among the most favorable for Democrats (health care and the economy) have gained prominence.  There is one sour note in this symphony: a decrease in the Democratic advantage when it comes to corruption and ethics in government.

Democratic advantage on key issues and importance of key issues in recent elections.  Click to enlarge.

8.  Iraq (+)
The public continues to think the war in Iraq simply isn’t worth it, to a greater extent than a year ago, although opinion was more pessimistic mid-year.  More and more people also think the number of troops should be decreased.

Opinion on whether Iraq is worth it and troop withdrawal.  Click to enlarge.

9.  The Economy (+)
As we saw above, the public trusts Democrats much more on the economy, and the economy is coming to the fore in terms of important issues this election season.  People think things aren’t very good and they’re getting worse, despite all the rosy numbers the Bush administration keeps putting out.  And when the Republicans try to talk up the economy, it really pisses people off (see Page 7.)  One reason, of course, is because Real People actually buy things like milk and gas, and the prices keep going up while wages are not.  Over Bush’s presidency, gas has been increasing at 13% per year (log plot here), while wages have been increasing at about 3% per year.  Up until about 2004, the public perception of the economy’s future seemed to be tied strongly to the stock market; after that, it appears gas prices are key.  For more and a much better analysis, see How to hide a recession.

Public perception on the current state of the economy, direction of the economy, milk and gas prices, and how gas and the Dow influence public opinion.  Click to enlarge.

10.  Health Care (+)
Health care availability and cost are both increasing problems, and surely related to perceptions of the economy.  The percentage of Americans without insurance has been rising steadily through the Bush presidency, and the number now stands at 47 million. Those who have health care plans through work have seen premiums almost double, while benefits dwindle and copays multiply.

Percent of Americans who are uninsured and premium prices.  Click to enlarge.

The Campaigning

11.  Fundraising (+)
Any way you slice it, Congressional Democrats and Democratic challengers are beating the pants of the Republicans in the money race.  The bad news is where a lot of this money is coming from.  The new members of Congress are raising a ton of cash, and Republican challengers are not.  Data for the first six months of 2007 and previous years are available from the FEC.

Total and median funds for incumbents, median funds for challengers, and number of challengers.  Click to enlarge.

12.  Recruitment (+)
As BENAWU has tirelessly documented, there are more districts with Democrats running now than at this time in 2005.  Part of this, of course, is that we started out with a few extra seats in the House filled with incumbents!  Nonetheless, Democrats are having a great recruitment season.

Number of districts with Democrats running, and district status as of mid-October.  Click to enlarge.

13.  Retirement (+)
Democrats are keeping their behinds tightly plastered to their seats and Republicans are fleeing for the exits, as covered by many of Steve Singiser’s diaries.  The Cook Political Report has tracked retirements over the past few cycles, and based on the numbers, it looks like we can expect another wave of Republican retirements in the new year, possible making it up to 30.  Democrats, on the other hand, have far fewer retirements or even potential retirements compared to the 2004 or 2006 cycles. 

Republican and Democratic retirements, and Republican and Democratic potential retirements.  Click to enlarge.

14.  Coattails (-)
In 2006, we had no national Democrat for Republicans to run against in House races.  In 2008, we will, and whoever it is will have high negatives after the right-wing slime machine is done with them. 

The good news is, right now, 74% believe that Clinton will be the nominee, and her most recent NBC/WSJ ‘very negative’ ratings were 26%.  No, really – this is good news, because it means the current excellent Generic Ballot numbers (which recently have had a good relationship with the actual vote) must therefore already have substantial negative coattails built in.  We still should assume the effect will increase.  Below are Kerry’s numbers from 2004 and the generic ballot numbers (note that approval of Democrats in general was also falling at the end of the campaign).

Kerry’s disapproval and the generic ballot, 2004.  Click to enlarge.

Summary:

Out of 14 factors, there are only two that are worse now compared to the 2006 cycle.  The generic ballot favors Democrats to an amazing extent.  This will be affected by local campaigns, of course, and here the Democrats are also excelling, with outstanding fundraising, recruiting, and retention.  Broader factors such as the economy and presidential approval ratings are also trending towards Democrats.  The public trusts Democrats more, and approves of Democrats more, even as they are unsatisfied with what Congress is doing.  As of now, Democrats are in an excellent position for the 2008 elections, despite the shortcomings of Democratic leaders over the past year. 

The Federal Communications Commission is moving ahead with plans to help big media get bigger.  A rally happening right now in front of FCC headquarters in Washington, D.C., is designed to slow the rush toward even more consolidation.

My opponent should break his silence on this important issue and explain whether he is working for the Texas taxpayers who own the public airwaves or Clear Channel, his family’s mega-media company.

Call McCaul at 202-225-2401 and remind him who owns the public airwaves.

Last week, New Mexico reporter/blogger Heath Haussamen had the inside word that allies of Richardson were discouraging potential donors from cutting checks for the Senate candidacy of Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez:

Some of Gov. Bill Richardson's closest supporters have quietly told a handful of his biggest financial backers considering who they should support in the U.S. Senate race to “keep your powder dry for awhile.” […]

Though no Democrat would speak for the record about the governor's words, sources are speculating on three scenarios:

Richardson, though he has repeatedly insisted publicly that he isn't going to run for Senate even if he loses the presidential race, may be quietly leaving the door open.

Richardson doesn't want his supporters giving their money or time to a Senate candidate at this crucial stage in the presidential election, when he needs their help.

Richardson doesn't want them backing Chávez, the only top-tier Democrat in the Senate race, at a time when Denish is considering the race and Washington insiders and grassroots supporters in New Mexico are trying to get U.S. Rep. Tom Udall to enter the race.

It's no secret that local and national Democrats would prefer an alternative to Chavez — and everything that I've been hearing indicates that strong alternatives are giving the race a hard look.  I had assumed that Richardson's advice that donors should “keep their powder dry” was meant to give Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Rep. Tom Udall some more time to consider (and reconsider) the race.  But could Richardson actually be angling to get into the race himself?  Mark Murray over at First Read has the scoop:

By the way, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli — who's covering Richardson filing his paperwork today for the New Hampshire primary — reports that Richardson said he would not accept matching funds “because it's unilateral disarmament.” It's worth noting that not accepting matching funds makes it MUCH easier to transfer one's presidential money into a Senate account. Just some food for thought…

Richardson's presidential campaign coffers haven't exactly been on par with Hillary's or Obama's.  (He raised $7 million in the third quarter and had less than that on-hand at the start of the month.)  It seems that the extra boost provided by matching funds would be a pretty crucial component of a come-from-behind victory for Richardson's team.  And while the move not to accept funds makes perfectly good strategic sense for someone aiming to succeed in the general election, it must be noted that Richardson faces far longer odds of making it there than even John Edwards has today.  Could something else be at work here?

If Richardson were to run, the polls suggest it would be a slam dunk for Democrats.  Should we hold out hope that Richardson might decide to pursue a Senate bid after his Presidential campaign flames out?  Or are we going to end up looking like the poor souls who are still hoping for Al Gore to enter the Presidential race and save all of humanity?

Update (Trent, 10/31):

Chuck Todd, appearing on Tucker last night prior to the debate, offered some predictions about Bill Richardson:

Richardson, though, I think you're going to see Richardson really stop being an aggressive candidate.  I think he has got his one eye on that Senate race.  he probably at some point is going to end up running for the U.S. Senate, probably is going to want Bill Clinton raising money for him in New Mexico.  So Richardson is the guy I'm wondering, will he end up being a helpful surrogate on the stage for Clinton if people stop—start beating up on her too much, where you suddenly see Richardson saying, hey, hey, this isn't what this is all about, and he starts trying to be the nice guy and end up helping Clinton.

Todd sounds particularly prescient considering that many viewed Richardson's debate performance as being particularly protective of Clinton.

With confirmed Democratic candidates in (351) house districts, it’s again time to see how we are going state by state.

Below the fold to see the good news as well as some potential concerns.

And go take a look at the fantastic 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Alabama – 5/7 filled
The 2nd and 6th both need candidates. The 6th is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006 and it wasn’t contested in 2004 either. There are rumoured candidates in the 2nd but ominous silence from the 6th.
AL-02 – R+13,
AL-06 – R+25,

Alaska – FULL SLATE

Arizona – FULL SLATE

Arkansas – FULL SLATE

California – 47/53 filled
Well 6 races is a few to find candidates for but this is California and all of the currently uncontested districts had candidates in 2006.

The districts are all over the state and I guess at this stage we should watch this space.
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,

Colorado – 5/7 filled
The 5th and 6th both need candidates with both 2006 candidates unlikely to run again. Despite the focus on the open senate race I expect the Colorado Dems to find candidates for both these districts so as to boost turnout for the senate race.
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,

Connecticut – FULL SLATE

Delaware – FULL SLATE

Florida – 19/25 filled
6 Races to fill. It is a little early to be too concerned, particularly given the attention being paid to the 13th. None the less it would be good to see a few of these fill soon.
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,

Georgia – 9/13 filled
Travelling OK in Georgia vis a vis house candidates. 4 more to fill, all with rumoured candidates.
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,

Hawaii – FULL SLATE

Idaho – 1/2 filled
Well Idaho 2 is unlikely to be even remotely competitive unless it becomes an open race, which is unlikely also.
Sure we will find a candidate here in the time remaining.
68% Bush district in 2004.
ID-02 – R+19,

Illinois – 18/19 filled
Only one race to fill well done Illinois Dems
IL-15 – R+6,

Indiana – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and certainly a candidate will step up.
IN-05 – R+20,

Iowa – FULL SLATE

Kansas – 3/4 filled
Early days yet and we only need to fill one race. Wait and see.
KS-01 – R+20,

Kentucky – 2/6 filled
With a competitive gubernatorial race coming in November it is no great surprise that 3/4 of the GOP incumbents do not have declared opponents. Wait until after November.
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-05 – R+8,

Louisiana – 3/7 filled
See Kentucky – however the precarious state of the Louisiana Democrats does not bode well. Also the 6th is one of the uncontested 10 districts from 2006.
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,

Maine – FULL SLATE

Maryland – FULL SLATE

Massachusetts – FULL SLATE

Michigan – 10/15 filled
A couple of recent candidate declarations make Michigan less of a concern but it would be nice to see some more candidates in this state.
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,

Minnesota – FULL SLATE

Mississippi – 2/4 filled
Only 2 districts to fill which I assume democrats will turn their minds to filling after this years elections. Note that the Open 3rd was not contested by us in 2006 or 2004.
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,

Missouri – 6/9 filled
2 GOP districts filled and 3 to go. With the focus on the gubernatorial contest in 08 expect the Missouri Dems to find candidates for all 3 districts.
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,

Montana – FULL SLATE

Nebraska – 0/3 filled
all 3 districts to fill with Kleeb likely to run again in the 3rd and Esch likely to run again in the 2nd. No problems here at this stage.
NE-01 – R+11,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,

Nevada – 2/3 filled
Only 1 district to fill should happen soon hopefully.
NV-02 – R+8.2,

New Hampshire – FULL SLATE

New Jersey – 12/13
We are doing surprisingly well in New Jersey this cycle. Months to go and state legislative elections in november and we still have filled 5/6 of the GOP districts with challengers. The other will no doubt fill after November (Van Drew is my bet).
NJ-02 – D+4.0,

New Mexico – FULL SLATE

New York – 28/29 filled
Only 1 more to fill here. Expect an announcement soon.
NY-03 – D+2.1,

North Carolina – FULL SLATE

North Dakota – FULL SLATE

Ohio – 14/18 filled
4 Races to fill, not bad considering, be nice to fill these quickly.
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,

Oklahoma – 2/5 filled
Only one of the GOP incumbents opposed at this stage not a good sign at all. Oklahoma being as red as it is this is one to be concerned about IMHO.
OK-01 – R+13,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,

Oregon – 4/5 filled
The only question is who will step up in the 2nd a 61% bush 2004 district, particularly if the rumours about Waldens retirement are true.
OR-02 – R+11,

Pennsylvania – 16/19 filled
3 races to fill here; 1 with rumoured candidates. The PA Dems will fill these 3 races easily.
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-19 – R+12,

Rhode Island – FULL SLATE

South Carolina – 2/6 filled
None of the GOP incumbents have declared opponents – this is a worry. The state of the SC Dems is probably worse than everywhere else bar Georgia and Louisiana. Hopefully candidates will step up.
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
SC-04 – R+15,

South Dakota – FULL SLATE

Tennessee – 5/9 filled
Another southern state with all GOP incumbents currently unopposed. *sigh* This one too could be a problem. Watch this space.
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TN-07 – R+12,

Texas – 20/32 filled
Well 12 unfilled races says it all. Texas is a perennial concern for house wonks such as myself, largely because it sends more house repubs to congress than any other state (19). Texas also has a very early filing deadline so this is one to be watched. TX-11 was uncontested in 2006. Expect to hear more about this state later in the year.
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,

Utah – 1/3 filled
Well it comes as no shock that we have unfilled races in Utah however there are only two GOP incumbents without declared opponenets so we will wait and see.
UT-01 – R+26,
UT-03 – R+22,

Vermont – FULL SLATE

Virginia – 6/11 filled
Virginia is a little slow out of the blocks. Of concern is the 4th which we did not contest in 2006 or 2004. To be fair however there is both state house and senate elections this november as well as the potential open senate race. Wait and see at this point. On the upside the 6th will be contested for the first time since 2002.
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,

Washington – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
WA-05 – R+7.1,

West Virginia – FULL SLATE

Wisconsin – FULL SLATE

Wyoming – FULL SLATE

So in the main things are looking great on the house candidate front. However a number of states are of concern; Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas in particular. On the upside however 22 states have a full slate and 9 with only 1 race to fill.

Onwards to 435!

Well 4 more districts now have candidates:
FL-12 – R+5,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
TX-32 – R+11,
Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

351 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 118 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 118
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 59

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-21 – R+6,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 22 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, VA-06, and WI-06; 5 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Albuquerque Mayor and Senate candidate Martin Chavez (D) speaks out on the state of the campaign so far.  Saying that he thinks that he gets “a bad rap from progressives” for his pro-business proclivities, Chavez takes stock of the two potential opponents that local and national Democrats hope will also enter the primary, Rep. Tom Udall and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish:

Chávez said he isn’t worried. Denish has already raised more than $1 million for a 2010 gubernatorial run, and with Chávez abandoning his gubernatorial bid to instead run for Senate, he said it wouldn’t make sense for her to enter the race. He said he is “not concerned” even if she does enter the race.

He also said he is confident he would defeat Udall in a primary.

“Philosophically, he’s so far to the left,” Chávez said. “I’d rather not have him in the race, but that’s a challenge I’d not shy away from.”

Classy for Chavez to use baseless right-wing talking points in order to put down a respected party player who would likely whip Mayor Marty’s ass in a primary battle.  Chavez might want to take a look at the polls again and see who has more mainstream appeal in the state: him or Udall.  Big hint: Udall would put this race in the bag for Democrats, while a Chavez candidacy would be surrounded by question marks.

Let me be clear: if we’re saddled with Chavez, I’ll sigh heavily and deal with it.  But I think it’s extremely telling that Chavez is already speaking out of school and reading out of the Republican play book in order to prove his strength in a hypothetical primary.  Completely and utterly unnecessary.

The Omaha World-Herald takes stock of the potential Democratic candidates for the Nebraska Senate race — all two of them.  Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and ’06 3rd District nominee Scott Kleeb won’t shut the door on a run just yet:

The party has no candidates at this time and their best contender, Fahey, is less than enthusiastic about running a statewide race. The Omaha mayor said that he was not ruling it out but that he has lots of work to do in Omaha.

Fahey has taken an active and high-profile role in trying to keep the College World Series in Omaha. His work in that arena may make it easier for him to rebuff Democratic efforts to recruit him into the race. […]

Fahey said he will decide over the next 30 days whether to run.

“To call it an inconvenient time is an understatement,” he said.

Kleeb, who lost a congressional bid to U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith in western Nebraska last year, also may be a hard sell. […]

He said that he was disappointed in Kerrey’s decision and that he would wait to see what Fahey decided.

If Fahey stays out of the race, Kleeb said, he would consider running.

“It would have to be sooner than later. These campaigns these days take a long time,” said Kleeb, who has about $70,000 left in his congressional campaign committee.

It’s no doubt a daunting decision to go up against a formidable GOP foe in Mike Johanns.  Frankly, I’m surprised that Fahey is still thinking about it, even hesitantly.  However, if one of these two guys get in the ring, and if Bruning bloodies up Johanns, there’s still an outside chance that this race could become interesting.

(H/T: New Nebraska Network)