Tag: 2008 Elections

TIME Magazine dips its toes into the 2008 Senate race scene in its list of the “top ten Senate races to watch“. (H/T: S2G)  Here’s an excerpt from their Louisiana page, talking up the profile of state Treasurer and recently-converted Republican John N. Kennedy:

Kennedy very nearly beat Republican David Vitter for his Senate seat in 2004; in a year that favored Republicans (Bush won Louisiana with 57 % of the vote) Vitter just barely squeaked in with 51%.

Funny.  That’s not how I remember the 2004 Senate race in Louisiana going down:

David Vitter (R): 51%
Chris John (D): 29%
John Kennedy (D): 15%
MoE: 0.0%

Yeah, Kennedy was really breathing down Vitter’s neck there.

That’s not the only mistake in the piece, of course.  On the Colorado page, TIME calls Rep. Mark Udall (D) “the son of the legendary Colorado Congressman Mo Udall”.  Mo, of course, represented Arizona in the House.

I feel genuinely sorry for anyone still stuck relying on the dead tree media for their horse race coverage.

Surprise, surprise: Bob Kerrey, last seen burnishing his Cornhusker credentials by hobnobbing with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer and writing op-eds in the Daily News, is taking a pass on the Senate race.

With popular former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) in the race, and Kerrey’s months of indecisiveness clearing the field of other potential challengers, it’s not hard to imagine Democrats putting up only token opposition in Nebraska next year.

Eric Kleefeld over at TPM writes that “an inability to win this seat would essentially end any hopes by Democrats of reaching 60 Senate seats this cycle”.  I’m not convinced that 60 seats was ever really in reach in the first place, even with a hypothetical Kerrey candidacy.  Too many variables would have to break in just the right way in order for Democrats to even come close to such a broad sweep.  Perhaps, with Kerrey’s decision, a sense of normalcy will return to prognosticators who are openly hyping the magical 60 mark as some kind of benchmark for DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer’s success next year.

(And yeah, count me down as another guy who’s more than happy not to have to deal with the Liebermanesque statements of the week that a Bob Kerrey campaign would produce.)

Now that a Senate bid appears to be off the table for Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), Roll Call reports that the congressman might throw in the towel completely in an announcement that could come as soon as Thursday:

Published reports Monday night indicated that Davis is rethinking his long-awaited Senate bid, and Congressional sources said Tuesday that a run for re-election also may be off the table for the seven-term Congressman. […]

Now some knowledgeable sources on Capitol Hill are saying that if he’s not moving up then Davis likely will be moving out, regardless of the fact that he would be a strong favorite for an eighth term in 2008.

Davis admitted earlier this year that he considered retiring before the 2006 election. He said he decided to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate in the previous cycle would have enabled Democrats to pick up his Northern Virginia seat.

A Davis retirement would open up a district that’s been trending hard in the Democratic direction over the past decade.  Al Gore lost the 11th district by a 7 point margin in 2000, but Bush squeaked by Kerry by a single point in ’04.  In recent statewide victories for Democrats, the 11th has voted strongly for Warner, Kaine and Webb.

If Davis wants to challenge Sen. Webb in 2012, a retirement would make little sense — especially if he traded in his current job for a plum gig as a DC lobbyist, as some are speculating.  But perhaps Davis just wants to cash in while he still can.

Is it retirement time for GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin?  In a lengthy article dealing with her personal troubles and recent tragedies (and they are significant), Cubin says that she’ll make a re-election decision and announcement very soon:

Cubin, who turns 61 in November, told the Associated Press recently that she plans to run for re-election. But on Thursday she said only that she will make a decision and announcement in the next few weeks.

“I just need to make the announcement at a time that is right,” she said. “Certainly whatever I decide to do there are people I need to notify first before it is in the media – staff, family, all those kind of things.”

I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine Cubin deciding to give 2008 another go.  That’s going to be bad news for Democrat Gary Trauner, but I suppose you never know what kind of Bill Sali-esque goon might emerge from the bowels of the Wyoming Republican Party, leaving a ray of hope in one of the reddest states in the nation.

Over the weekend, AFSCME and the New House PAC hosted a national candidate training camp in Chicago, with the blessing of the DCCC.  Martin Heinrich, a Democrat gunning for the open seat of Heather Wilson (R-NM), described the event thusly:

They invited the top challengers from around the nation and put us through the paces with two days of intense coaching on management, message, money and mobilization. I’ve been through a lot of political trainings, but this was in a class by itself. It was especially helpful to get to know some of the freshmen Congressmen like Ed Perlmutter who ran and won in Republican leaning districts.

In addition to being a great learning experience the conference also gave me great hope. This year’s challengers are an amazing crop of candidates. They all had impeccable credentials and the fire in the belly to win. By the end of the weekend they all had an impressively polished message as well.

I’m not so much interested in the concerns of some that the DCCC may be playing sides in a few primary battles through its involvement in the camp, but I am interested in seeing just who this coalition of national Democrats believes are worthy enough for the special treatment.  Heinrich, writing on his blog, leaks the attendees:

John Adler (NJ-03), Kay Barnes (MO-06), John Boccieri (OH-16), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Darcy Burner (WA-08), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Joan Fitz-Gerald (CO-02), Bill Foster (IL-14), Larry Grant (ID-01), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Jim Himes (CT-04), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Bill Kennedy (MT-AL), Bob Lord (AZ-03), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Eric Massa (NY-29), Bill McCamley (NM-02), Bill O’Neill (OH-14), Gary Peters (MI-09), Jon Powers (NY-26), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Dan Seals (IL-10), Ron Shepston (CA-42), John Unger (WV-02), Dick Versace (IL-18).

Certainly an interesting list — with a surprise or two, like Ron Shepston, a candidate who quite literally emerged from the DailyKos user rolls and is running in a deeply red (R+10.2) district.

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi, the eventual 133-vote loser in the highly contentious 2004 gubernatorial election in Washington state, is gearing up for a rematch against Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire.  Rossi will make his bid official on Thursday.

There’s no doubt that Rossi will be a serious foe against Gregoire.  Rossi seemed to benefit from favorable media coverage during the bitter re-count period in 2004, as evidenced by this poll showing that voters felt that he was robbed of the office and that he’d easily have won a hypothetical re-vote in late January, 2005.

Still, Gregoire seems to have had a largely uncontroversial first term, and the trendline of her approvals is respectable.

This will be a hard-fought race by the GOP — possibly their only real offensive opportunity to pick off an incumbent Democratic governor next year.  But I’d be willing to bet that Gregoire has the early, if only slight, edge.

It’s World Series week, and Congressman Mike McCaul is about to get another chance to improve his batting average when a measure providing uninsured Texas kids the kind of health insurance program he enjoys comes up again for debate.

So far, he’s batting 0-2.

First, he voted against the bi-partisan SCHIP bill that would have extended coverage to nearly 1.4 million Texas children whose parents work hard and earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but too little to afford private insurance.  Then, he remained in lockstep with the Bush-Cheney administration and voted against overriding the President’s veto.

Forty-four Republicans joined the Democratic majority in voting to override last week and guarantee access to affordable health care for the children of parents who are working hard and playing by the rules.  They ignored the misinformation spread by the White House and did the right thing.

But not Mr. McCaul.  So here are some facts to help him do the right thing, too:

• More than 90 percent of those families covered by SCHIP earn less than $41,000 a year and can’t afford the average $12,000 annual premiums to cover their children.
• McCaul and his fellow ideologues claim the SCHIP proposal would cover families earning $83,000 a year.  But they’re wrong — and they know it.  No state, including Texas, can cover higher-income families without approval from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which President Bush controls.
• SCHIP is a fiscally responsible plan that saves local taxpayers money by guaranteeing access to health care at the doctor's office, not the emergency room.
• SCHIP isn’t a step toward the kind of government-run health care McCaul and his cronies enjoy. Under the proposal, states are free to provide health coverage any way they choose — and most of them, including Texas, choose to use private insurers to deliver coverage.
• SCHIP is aimed directly at those who need it. States earn bonuses for enrolling those most in need and lose federal matching funds if they don't cover the poorest children — and it phases out coverage for those few adults who are currently enrolled.

The issue isn’t going away.  More than 80 percent of Americans favor the measure Mr. McCaul has voted against — twice.  The question now is whether he will be independent enough next time to swing for the fences or continue to look to the bench for instructions on what to do.

Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle–and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in ’00 and Bush in ’04 by the slimmest of margins).  Let’s take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:

February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Nat’l Dems “are aggressively working to recruit someone to run” for Rep. Bill Young’s (R) seat, “pegging it as one of their top targets.” A DCCC recruiter “recently met with prospective” Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). […] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: “I’d be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him.”

February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Dems “sounded the opening bell last week,” firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already “is seated squarely in Dems’ sights.” They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young’s alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a “rallying point” for an already packed field of “likely” candidates.  Dems “are courting” state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are “petrified” Young will opt not to run in ’08, which likely would set off a “primary scramble in both parties.”

May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn’t know “how much longer he’ll stay” in Congress.  Young: “Nobody knows because I don’t know.”  But will he retire in ’08?  Young: “Let’s be honest: I’m thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before.” […]

But Young’s uncertainty has left GOPers “worried that he may be serving his last term.”

July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he’s “amassing” a “truckload of money.”  He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is “more than a year away.”  Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, “I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make.”  Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, “the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly” (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).

August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week “talking” with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R).  Justice: “A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it.”  Justice, whose name “is also in the mix” of possible ’09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young “might boost” his name ID if Young “waits awhile to retire.”  Justice: “I don’t get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race.”  If I did it, I would run to win.”

October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.

October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  […] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?

Something is set to break here.

In another blow to Republican Senate hopes, Rep. Tom Davis, considered their party’s best shot at holding the seat of retiring Sen. John Warner in the red column, is set to abort his candidacy in a public announcement this week (possibly as early as Thursday).  Chris Cillizza adds that it is not yet clear whether Davis will retire from the House or not.

That leaves the field clear for GOP stalwart and former Gov. Jim Gilmore to proudly wave the conservative flag in the election against the formidable Democrat Mark Warner.

This could turn into the most boring Senate race of the cycle.  But hey, I won’t complain.

Greg Goode, a Republican challenger to freshman Democrat Brad Ellsworth, stepped down from his job at Indiana State University today in order to meet voters and explore the district he’s running in:

Goode announced his candidacy for the 8th District Congress on Aug. 1. He has since then gained the support from the 8th District Republican Committee and plans on devoting his time and attention to the campaign and election.

“My goals are to criss-cross the 15 counties that make up the Indiana 8th Congressional District,” Goode said. “I will be doing that for the next one year and one month of my life. This is a big district geographically speaking. It is one the largest districts in Indiana and it is going to take a lot of time. That’s why we announce this early.” (Emphasis added)

That sounds very nice… until you realize that Indiana’s 8th district has 18 counties.

I wonder which three counties Goode plans to ignore?

(H/T to the indispensable Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-08