Tag: 2008 Elections

Pass the popcorn!  It’s time for another divisive Republican primary.  Mere days after jumping into the New Mexico Senate race, Rep. Steve Pearce is already being accused of breaking House ethics rules by his colleague and primary opponent, Heather Wilson:

  Pearce, as part of a campaign-funded “tele town hall,” autodialed an estimated 130,000 GOP members across New Mexico on Thursday evening to chat them up about a vetoed children’s health bill, which he and Wilson disagree on.

  ” …I voted to uphold the veto because this bill has major flaws that are bad for the country, and bad for New Mexico,” Pearce said in his recorded messages leading up to the live, two-hour telephone town hall from his Washington, D.C., home. About 13,000 agreed to stay on the line.

  The Wilson camp, meanwhile, accused Pearce of breaking House ethics rules by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site.

  Wilson deputy finance director Heather Wade in an e-mail to the Journal cited a portion of a House document advising members they cannot advertise their official House Web sites on “materials issued by the campaign.” And Wade maintains the calls were, in effect, campaign materials.

  “In making these phone calls, Mr. Pearce misused taxpayer dollars to run for the Senate…,” Wade said in a written statement.

Nice body blow by Wilson there, who is no paragon of ethics herself.  She certainly isn’t wasting any time getting out in front of the issue.  I look forward to Pearce’s counter-attack, and the ensuing bloodbath.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

In September, we asked you to rank the 2008 Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip party control.  Since that time, there have been a number of developments that might shake up your rankings, including:

1. NM-Sen: The retirement of Pete Domenici and the entries of Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, as well as Democrat Martin Chavez, in the race to replace him.
2. VA-Sen: The depression of Rep. Tom Davis, after his party gamed the nomination for unpopular ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore.
3. NH-Sen: The entry of ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
4. NE-Sen: More dithering from Bob Kerrey (who appears to be back in NYC), while ex-Gov. Mike Johanns quit his job in Bush’s cabinet to carry the GOP banner in the race.
5. LA-Sen: Analysts are already beginning to read the tea leaves of last night’s gubernatorial elections in the state.  While Jindal had a blowout victory, Mary Landrieu’s brother was re-elected to his Lt. Governor post with 57% of the vote.  The Hotline’s Quinn McCord reads the numbers and finds the results to be not so bad for Sen. Landrieu.

Not that I take much stock in his wisdom, but the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza released his rankings of the Senate scene on Friday (previous ranking in parens):

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Colorado (3)
4. New Mexico (-)
5. Louisiana (4)
6. Oregon (5)
7. Maine (6)
8. Minnesota (8)
9. Alaska (10)
10. Nebraska (7)

What’s your take?

Third quarter fundraising numbers came out over a week ago.  Fundraising is a huge indicator to a lot of things when it comes to predicting races and keeping an eye out for possible retirements. 

So lets get down to it.  I’m going to take people who fundraised under 100,000$ and go over their age, and length of their political career. 

Senate:
Mike Enzi raised a total of $7,525.  Enzi is 63 years old, and has spent 27 of the last 32 years in elected office.  He is older, and is looking foward to a long time in the minority. 

Thad Cochran raised a total of $14,124.  Cochran is 70 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in congress.  (4 years in the house, then the last 30 in the senate). 

House:
John Doolittle (R-CA-04) raised $50,000.  Doolittle is 57 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in elected office (CA Senate ’80-90, US House ’90-present)

Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41) raised $67,000.  Lewis is 73 years old and has spent the last 39 years in elected office (CA Senate ’68-78, US House ’78-Present)

Gary Miller (R-CA-42) raised $39,000.  Miller is 59 years old and has spent 16 of the last 18 years in elected office. 

Bill Young (R-FL-10) raised $29,000.  Young is 77 years old, and has spent the last 47 years in elected office (FL Senate ’60-70, US House ’70-present)

Dave Weldon (R-FL-15) raised $29,000.  Weldon is 54 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Mark Souder (R-IN-03) raised $83,000.  Souder is 57 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Steve Buyer (R-IN-04) raised $74,000.  Buyer is 49 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Julia Carson (D-IN-07) raised $9,000.  Carson is
69 years old, and has spent the last 35 years in political office.  She also has health issues. 

Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD-06) raised $1,000.  Bartlett is 81 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Dennis Kucinech (D-OH-10) raised $40.  Kucinech is 61 years old, and has spent 21 of the last 38 years in elected office. 

Virgil Goode (R-VA-05) raised $53,000.  Goode is 61 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in elective office (VA Senate ’73-96, US House ’96-present)

Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) raised $79,000.  Wolf is 68 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in the US House. 

Barbera Cubin (R-WY-AL) raised $11,000.  Cubin is 61 years old, and has spent the last 20 years in elected office.  Cubin is also being pushed towards retirement by state Republicans for her weak electability. 

In case you are wondering, I did omit a number of people who were very close to $100,000, if they had a contested primary, or if they were in a competitive district (Obviously making it harder to raise large sums of money.  If I didn’t, this would have taken me all day). 

People Ommitted:
Bilbray-R-CA-50
Latham-R-IA-04
King-R-IA-05
Sali-R-ID-01
Lipinski-D-IL-03
Gilchrest-R-MD-01
Saxton=R-NJ-03
Udall-D-NM-03
Fossella-R-NY-13
McHugh-R-NY-19
McCaul-R-TX-10

Future Democratic retirements? 
House: 1-2
Senate: 0

Future Republican retirements? 
House: 5-11
Senate: 1-2

(Of course these are off of fundraising only – Obviously I’m not looking into people who are off the radar completely)

Here’s what I guessed.

Democrats-US House: Carson for Sure, Kucinech is a maybe.

Republicans-US Senate: Cochran for sure, Enzi is a maybe. 

Republicans-US House: Lewis, Young, Bartlett, Cubin for sure – Everyone else maybe. 

Well, that didn’t take long.  Chris Minor, a Blackwater contractor who announced a bid against freshman Dem Joe Donnelly just a few weeks ago, is dropping out of the race:

Blackwater contractor Chris Minor announced early Friday he’s dropping out of the Indiana 2nd District congressional race, citing conflicts with his upcoming duties in Iraq.

Minor, a former Kokomo High School graduate and retired U.S. Army officer, announced in late September he would challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Granger.

Friday, Minor said running for office would be “too great a distraction” from his upcoming deployment as an independent contractor in Iraq.

Minor was a gong show candidate.  He denied any closeness with the Blackwater, choosing to instead classify his affairs with the company as being merely a “pay relationship” (whatever that’s supposed to mean).  That didn’t stop him from defending the company earlier in the month, though:

Minor said he thinks Blackwater will be vindicated by the investigations.

“I think once the investigations are over, we’ll see a bunch of guys who have just been fighting in a very tough, combat environment.”

Guess not, Chris.

There were other facets of Minor’s profile that were less than compelling, including his decision to resign from the Kokomo Police Department after an off-duty altercation, as well as a drunk driving charge.

I guess it’s back to the drawing board for Indiana Republicans.

Race Tracker: IN-02

According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:

State	CD	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+4.3	46	54	43	57
FL	21	Diaz-Balart, Lincoln	(R)	R+6.2	43	57	42	58
FL	25	Diaz-Balart, Mario	(R)	R+4.4	44	56	45	55

It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.

Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.

They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:

Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.

“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.

Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.

As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:

“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.

“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.

Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.

Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.

Race Tracker: FL-18 | FL-21 | FL-25

My opponent once more failed to do the right thing today.

He again put his loyalty to the Bush-Cheney administration ahead of his obligation to the families who pay for his own health care with their taxes but can’t afford the same rights for their own children.

Central Texans were looking for more leadership and less followership in Washington, D.C. today, because with more uninsured children than any other state, we had more to lose. We didn’t get that leadership today.

It’s time for a fresh start in a new direction.

A few weeks ago, we highlighted a long list of incumbents in marginal districts that voted against State Children’s Health Insurance bill in the House. Today, I want to bring to attention all the Republican lawmakers who listened to their moral conscience and changed their votes to override the President’s veto of the S-CHIP bill that will expand health care to millions of needy children:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI

Oh, that’s right. There WEREN’T ANY. In fact, the only vote changes on the Republican side of the aisle since last time were that Rep. Peter King (NY-03), who voted for the package originally, skipped town and failed to cast a vote against his beloved President today, and Babs Cubin (WY-AL), Wally Herger (CA-02), and Ted Poe (TX-02) actually found the time to show up and vote against children today. Bravo, folks.

So let’s take the opportunity to tally up the following Republican’ts occupying districts with a PVI of R+6 or weaker who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with George Bush today and against children and families who deserve health coverage:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
NJ-03	Jim Saxton	R	D+3.3
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	R	R+0.1
OH-01	Steve Chabot	R	R+0.5
IL-11	Jerry Weller	R	R+1.1
MI-11	Thaddeus McCotter	R	R+1.2
MI-08	Mike Rogers	R	R+1.9
WI-01	Paul Ryan	R	R+2.2
MI-07	Tim Walberg	R	R+2.5
MN-02	John Kline	R	R+2.7
IL-06	Pete Roskam	R	R+2.9
FL-08	Ric Keller	R	R+3.0
NC-08	Robin Hayes	R	R+3.0
FL-24	Tom Feeney	R	R+3.1
NY-26	Tom Reynolds	R	R+3.5
MI-04	Dave Camp	R	R+4.0
CA-26	Dave Dreier	R	R+4.1
FL-07	John Mica	R	R+4.1
FL-15	Dave Weldon	R	R+4.1
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	R	R+4.3
AL-03	Mike Rogers	R	R+4.3
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	R	R+4.3
NJ-05	Scott Garrett	R	R+4.4
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4
IL-16	Don Manzullo	R	R+4.5
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	R	R+4.6
IL-13	Judy Biggert	R	R+4.7
IL-14	Dennis Hastert	R	R+4.8
MO-06	Sam Graves	R	R+4.8
VA-04	Randy Forbes	R	R+4.9
FL-04	Ginny Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1
MN-06	Michele Bachmann	R	R+5.1
NY-29	Randy Kuhl	R	R+5.2
FL-12	Adam Putnam	R	R+5.3
NJ-11	Rodney Frelinghuysen	R	R+5.5
VA-05	Virgil Goode	R	R+5.6
NM-02	Steve Pearce	R	R+5.7
VA-02	Thelma Drake	R	R+5.9
AZ-03	John Shadegg	R	R+5.9
CA-44	Ken Calvert	R	R+6.0
CA-46	Dana Rohrabacher	R	R+6.0

Let these names be known now — they are the fringe minority that’s siding with an unpopular president against a bi-partisan bill championed by conservative Republican Senators like Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch. Shame on all of them–including the long list that this chart misses. Dishonorable mentions go to Democrats Jim Marshall and Gene Taylor, who both occupy steeply Republican districts, but who both need a spine transplant.

According to Roll Call, Dennis Hastert will announce his resignation from the House tomorrow:

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is expected to announce Thursday that he is resigning his seat in Congress effective later this year, eventually setting up a special election to succeed him, knowledgeable GOP sources said late Wednesday.

Rumblings have persisted for months that Hastert, who announced this summer that he would not seek re-election in 2008, was unlikely to complete his current term.

This week Hastert met with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and was making calls to tell people of his decision on Wednesday morning.

The article also adds that, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich has 5 days from Hastert’s last day in office to set a date for the special election, which must take place within 115 days.  Depending on the time line of Hastert’s decision, we could see a special election coinciding with the state’s February 5th primary.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE: The Politico says that Hastert’s announcement is postponed:

Hastert initially planned to make an announcement Thursday, but has since scrapped that decision, according to one GOP aide. The former speaker, who announced his plans to retire over the summer, is still expected to leave the House some time in December, but the date of his departure – as well as his announcement – remains unclear.

Lordy, what a teaser.  Just GO.

Race Tracker: IL-14

Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly, who was earlier considering a bid for the seat of retiring Rep. Dave Hobson (R-OH) has decided to pass on the race:

One of the Democrats recruited to run for the seat of retiring Rep. David Hobson (R-Ohio) told the Politico that he wouldn’t be entering the race and added that he didn’t “see any way” for Democrats to win the seat.

“I hate to concede already, but it’s the truth,” said Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly. “I don’t know of a Democrat out there that can take on [state senator] Steve Austria – unless someone will move into the district.”

Immediately after Hobson’s retirement announcement, GOP state senator Steve Austria announced his candidacy. Kelly called him a very “formidable opponent” and predicted he would be able to raise sizable amount of money for the campaign.  He added that the sprawling district, covering eight counties, makes it challenging and expensive to run a district-wide campaign.

Kelly may think he’s scoring points for candidness, but why he decided to create a “Even Democrats Don’t Think Democrats Can Win” narrative is puzzling.  Why shoot the next candidate who will take on the task of running here in the foot?  We’re all well aware that this red distirct (R+6) is hardly at the top of Democratic pick-up opportunities, but Sheriff Gene “Eeyore” Kelly showed little political sense in planting a “why bother” message before the field is even set, especially since the article goes on to include this nugget:

At the same time, Democrats performed respectably in the district in last year’s congressional elections: Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland won about 58 percent of the vote, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won 50 percent there.

Lame, sir.

Race Tracker: OH-07

The field is beginning to take shape in New Mexico: yesterday, it was reported that NM-02 Rep. Steve Pearce would join Rep. Heather Wilson in what is shaping up to be a contentious Republican primary, and that Democrat Patricia Madrid will not run for the seat.

While a sizable chunk of the New Mexico GOP’s small bench have thrown their hats in the race, their only statewide-elected official, State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has decided against running.

We’re still awaiting a decision from Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), and rumors are circulating that Rep. Tom Udall, who crushed the GOP competition in a hypothetical poll by SUSA, may be reconsidering his decision not to run.  Stay tuned.

On a final note, in her interview with NM blogger Heath Haussamen, Madrid says that she hasn’t ruled out another run for the vacant House seat of Heather Wilson.  Advice to Patsy: let common sense prevail and enjoy your private sector career.