Tag: 2008 Elections

In an interview with Minnesota Public Radio, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, the leading Republican candidate to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), offers his thoughts on the coming Congressional campaign:

“This is absolutely another wonderful opportunity to enter public service at a different level, focusing on issues like globalization and issues that I think that I genuinely care about and I think have learned a lot about some expertise on now and try to carry that to a new level as we do try to educate our kids for a global economy,” he said. “So that’s something in the back of my mind that definitely interests me and the opportunity, and I think I would do a good job.”

This guy needs to re-take “Soundbytes For The Media 101”.

(Hat-tip: MNPublius)

Sounds like Tom Davis has the blues.  Or at least, he’s seeing nothing but blue after his party gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore the upper hand in securing the GOP nomination and Democrat Mark Warner posted a massive $1.1 million fundraising haul in under three weeks:

But Davis said at a breakfast at the National Press Club on Tuesday that both recent developments factor into his decision and suggested that he might instead run for freshman Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-Va.) seat in 2012, or not run for Senate at all.

Davis is also a strong candidate on K Street and could  be drawn to a lobbying job.

“There are other races; this isn’t the only shot,” Davis said. “You’ve got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don’t go to the Senate, so what? I’ve been a committee chairman in the House. I’ve got my portrait hanging on a wall. I’ve been pretty productive legislatively.”

There have been rumblings of late that Davis is having second thoughts about running, but he insists his mind was never made up. […]

“Our calculation has been that, if you can get everything in line, it’s a doable race,” Davis said. “But if I have to spend eight months slogging through a party convention, talking to 15,000 Republicans around the state where they’re going to ask you how conservative you are, that does not set you up very well for a general election.”

Sounds like Tommy D has lost the fire in his belly.  Who could blame him?  Perhaps he’ll wave goodbye to the House, too.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Yesterday was the deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their fundraising reports for the second quarter of 2007.  As promised, just like we did for the first and second quarters, we’ve amassed a list of noteworthy fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers.  While this list is seriously mega, it is not meant to be comprehensive.  If we’ve missed anything, please post the numbers in the comments.  And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding.  The second column shows cash-on-hand, and the third shows cycle-to-date fundraising.

Scroll buttons ready?  Away we go!

A few quick notes:

• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Richard Goddard (GA-08), Jim Ryun (KS-02), John Stephen (NH-01), Andrew Saul (NY-19), Chris Hackett (PA-10)* (Hackett is a little iffy — his total includes a $100K personal donation, as opposed to a loan.)
  
• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Darcy Burner (WA-08), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Charlie Stuart (FL-08), Nels Ackerson (IN-04), Andrew Duck (MD-06), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Linda Stender (NJ-07), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Steve Black (OH-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10), Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
  
• Republican incumbents who were out-raised by other Republicans: Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01), John Doolittle (CA-04)
  
• Democratic incumbents who were out-raised by other Democrats: Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10)
  
• MO-06 and WA-08: So get this.  Despite being the beneficiary of a high-profile fundraiser hosted by Republican Lord & Savior George W. Bush, Dave Reichert was out-hustled by Democrat Darcy Burner.  Compare Reichert’s haul with the total posted by Sam Graves, a Missouri Republican who received a fundraising visit from Dick Cheney.  Graves raised a very impressive $500K+ for the quarter.  I guess the President’s star power isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be anymore.
  
• WA-08: Oh, and speaking of Dave Reichert, check out his filing.  He posted an unusually large amount of contribution refunds: $47,100.  I wonder what the deal is there.
  
• Bills, bills, bills: Dig a little deeper into the filing of Alaska’s Don Young, whose expenses outweighed his receipts by a $200K margin.  What is he spending that money on?  $177,000 in legal bills to the DC law firm of Akin Gump might explain the incumbent’s diminishing (but still huge) cash-on-hand.  Will Thomas over at TPM has more in this vein.
  
• Anatomy of a Dud, Part II: Are Tim Walz and Zack Space the luckiest Dem freshmen sitting in districts that Bush carried?  Take a look at their hapless opponents, who are all posting extremely anemic fundraising numbers.
  
• VA-05 and IN-04: Where did Tom Perriello and Nels Ackerson come from?  Way to turn some heads — both candidates outraised their opponents in abbreviated fundraising quarters since announcing their House bids.
  
• MD-01: Is Wayne Gilchrest doomed?  It sure seems like Republicans are eager to make an example out of him for his support of Democratic efforts to end the war in Iraq.

The U.S. House Thursday is scheduled to vote on whether to override the President’s controversial veto of the bi-partisan State Children’s Health Insurance Program.  Rep. Mike McCaul should vote to provide more than 1.4 million uninsured Texas children the health care they need.

Unfortunately, McCaul voted against uninsured kids and for insurance industry special interests the first round.  Will he find the moral courage to do the right thing today?  Will he finally make Texas priorities his priorities?

You can help by calling Rep. McCaul’s Capitol Hill office at 202-225-2401 and asking him to vote for nearly 1.5 million eligible children of working parents who deserve the same health insurance taxpayers give him.

Last week, Rep. McCaul was quick to hand out a congressional certificate of recognition to an Austin woman honored as one of 18 child care providers across the country at the first annual National

Child Care Provider Awards.  She deserved it. Now it’s time for McCaul to recognize that uninsured Texas kids deserve his attention, too.

Call McCaul today and tell him to vote to override the Bush-Cheney veto.

No later than the 15th day after the end of all quarters save the fourth, campaigns must file their fundraising reports with the FEC. For the third quarter, that much-anticipated day is today. As we’ve seen, many campaigns choose to file early, but we should still expect to see a flood of reports, at least from House candidates.

Senate reports are also due today, but thanks to truly insane regulations, these reports are filed in hardcopy and then, at great expense and lousy resolution, scanned in electronically. This doesn’t just cost money, it takes time as well – there’s at least a three-to-four week lag before these reports become available. That means reports from the third quarter next year won’t even be available until after the election! (For more on this insane state of affairs – which is entirely the fault of the Republicans – and what you can do to help, read Adam B here.)

Obviously, this is wildly unacceptable in this modern age. So I have a piece of advice for smart Senate campaigns across the country: post your filings on your websites. Not just a press release with your totals raised and on-hand – I’m talking about the entire PDF, or better yet, an Excel spreadsheet. Not only should these campaigns have nothing to hide, there’s nothing they can hide, because all this information will become public soon anyway.

This also leads me to another point. In the online era, the concept of quarterly filings seems rather antique. While I doubt that hidebound legislators would ever go in for this, I think some form of rolling disclosures would make a lot more sense. On one occasion, I worked in the finance department of a campaign, and we had to track donations daily anyway. Shooting this information over to the FEC on, say, a weekly basis would have meant almost zero additional work, except perhaps hitting “upload.”

The fact is, some form of this is already happening now. ActBlue updates totals in real time, and a growing number of campaigns use it as their exclusive online donation mechanism. Obviously these numbers don’t reflect checks received at live events and the like, but as ever-increasing amounts of money are contributed on the Internet, ActBlue totals are becoming more meaningful.

Like I say, I’m sure most politicians would resist this sort of reform. But with things like ActBlue and Dean bats pushing them, some smart campaigns will embrace this sort of open-ness.

In the meantime, though, I’m looking forward to all the third quarter reports. James will have a mammoth chart of all available numbers as soon as it’s feasible, but for now, you can catch up on all the early reports at these links:

Fundraising Reports | Son of… | Bride of… | Revenge of… | Indiana Jones and…

Another one bites the dust.

Republican Rep. Dave Hobson announced his retirement today, just days before his 71st birthday:

Rep. David Hobson announced at 5 p.m. Sunday that he will retire at the end of this term. […]

He made his announcement at a birthday party surrounded by staff, former staff and community leaders.

Hobson’s exit makes him the third Ohio Republican in the House to call it quits (Deborah Pryce and Ralph Regula being the others), and the 12th in the nation.  His district, however, is fairly red — with a PVI of R+6, Bush carried it by a 57-43 margin over Kerry.  It will be a tough district for a Democrat to win, but the surging fortunes of Democrats in the state could spark an interesting race here with the right kind of candidate.

Remember, Democrat Zack Space pulled off a victory in an Ohio district that’s just as red last year.  Granted, his GOP opponent was deeply flawed, but who knows what kind of Club For Growth-style stooge the local GOP might spit out for us here.

Race Tracker: OH-07

(Hat-tip: Buckeye State Blog)

Well 5 more districts now have candidates:
FL-05 – R+5,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NY-23 – R+0.2,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

347 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 114 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 114
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 24
Districts without any candidates – 63

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KY-05 – R+8,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MS-01 – R+10,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington. Thats 22 states with a full slate, and 9 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Big news out of Alaska: Anchorage pollster Ivan Moore shares a shocking new poll (PDF) with the Swing State Project that shows former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz with an early lead on scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51%
Don Young (R-inc.): 45.5%
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Wowza.  Could we be seeing the continuation of an anti-incumbent wave washing across the Last Frontier, which began with Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski’s landslide primary defeat to Sarah Palin in 2006?  With Alaskans growing increasingly frustrated with their representation in Washington, 2008 could be a banner year for change in the state.

Moore’s poll also shows Young with a 49.9% negative rating in the state (43.1% positive and 7% neutral) — something that I do not expect to improve for Young as the ethical and legal morass that is his too-cozy relationship with the overwhelmingly unpopular VECO corporation continues to grow.

Still, Young will be no pushover.  He is currently sitting on a massive warchest of over $1.6 million (although some of this is being eaten away by hefty legal fees), he has the state’s Republican tilt in his favor, and he’s held statewide office since Jesus invented the wheel.

There is also the possibility that Young could take one for the team and retire, or that he could fall in a primary to a fresh-faced Republican, such as state Rep. and current challenger Gabrielle LeDoux.  In such an event, Berkowitz could find himself twice unlucky: his Lt. Governor bid in 2006 fell short because Republicans had the sense to replace the unpopular Murkowski with the independent-minded Palin.

For now, though, it’s looking like Berkowitz picked the right time to run.

Race Tracker: AK-AL

Former Gov. Jim Gilmore must be smiling at the news:

Republican leaders gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore a boost today by choosing to hold a convention to nominate the party’s candidate to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

The party’s state central committee voted 47 to 37 to hold a convention rather than a primary.

Gilmore, the more conservative choice, is seen as having an edge among the party’s inner circle over the more moderate Rep. Tom Davis.  However, his personal appeal in the state is severely weakened by his embarrassing record as Governor.  Did the Republicans just hand Mark Warner a Senate seat on a silver platter?

What’s more, the prospect of a convention could cause Davis to walk away from the Senate contest altogether:

There was speculation that Davis, now, would not seek the nomination, leaving the field to Gilmore. A Davis spokesman said he would announce his intentions after the Nov. 6 General Assembly elections.

A non-candidacy by Davis would make picking up his House seat, which is trending in favor of Democrats in federal races, a much more difficult task.

Republican reaction can be found here.

Yeah, I’m running out of titles for these threads.

FL-10:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  It appears that Young, an 18-term incumbent who has been long rumored to be another potential Republican House retirement, is dampening his fundraising pace dramatically (he raised $200K in the second quarter).  These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?  Perhaps that would explain why Young made this unconscionable vote recently–he knows he won’t be held accountable for it if he bails. 

FL-10 is a true swing district: Gore won it by two points, and Kerry lost it by the same close margin.  If Young cut the cord and ran, this would be a huge pick-up opportunity for Democrats.

VA-05:

Tom Perriello (D): $110K raised; $111K CoH

All this in just a few weeks since he entered the race.  Hoo-boy.  It looks like Virgil Goode will face a real test next year.

WV-02:

Shelley Moore Capito (R): $259K raised; $525K CoH

OH-01:

Steve Driehaus (D): $121K raised; $251K CoH

PA-04:

Jason Altmire (D-inc): $281K raised; $737K CoH

OR-05:

Mike Erickson (R): $101K raised; $101K CoH

Interestingly, if you follow the above link, Mike Erickson’s campaign address is listed as being in Salt Lake City, Utah, and not Oregon, where he is running.  What’s up with that?

CO-04:

Marilyn Musgrave (R): $286K raised; $602K CoH

NY-26:

Jon Powers (D): $118K raised; $182K CoH

MI-07:

Tim Walberg (R-inc): $139K raised; $328K CoH

Yep, Mark Schauer (D) outraised Walberg by a hefty margin: $220K to $139 for the frosh incumbent Walberg, despite Schauer only entering the race midway through the quarter.  Is Walberg doomed?