Tag: 2008 Elections

In a new poll released by the Washington Post, former Gov. Mark Warner continues to crush his potential GOP foes:

Mark Warner (D): 63%
Tom Davis (R): 28%

Mark Warner (D): 61%
Jim Gilmore (R): 31%

(MoE: ±3%)

My favorite nugget of the poll?  This one:

In Davis’ own base of Fairfax County, Warner beats Davis 57%-33%. And among self-described conservatives, whom Gilmore has been courting, four in ten say they would vote for Warner.

So let’s get this straight: in Tom Davis’ backyard, where name recognition is no problem for him, Mark Warner’s numbers are barely dented.  Perhaps it’s not surprising, given that Warner enjoys a 67%/17% favorable/unfavorable rating throughout the state.  Fairfax voters may think well of Tom Davis, but they like Mark Warner a whole heck of a lot more.  So much for the idea of a tight race in NoVa with Tom Davis at the helm.

Speaking of Davis, are we being too presumptive in thinking that he’ll get the nomination?  The poll also shows Davis trailing former Gov. Jim Gilmore by a 48-29 margin in a primary match-up… and that’s assuming a primary even happens (it could be decided by a nominating convention, in which Gilmore is seen as having the inside edge on the more moderate Davis).

So many stories, so little time.  Let’s do some quick hits.

• FL-24: Muck-encrusted Rep. Tom Feeney is going to face a major Democratic challenger next year: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.  Kosmas was recruited by the DCCC to run after internal polling showed her in a competitive race against Abramoff associate Feeney.  Glad to have this race filled.  I’m looking forward to taking this crumb-bum on, who recently derided the proposed S-CHIP expansion as a “budget-busting, Cuban-style health care plan”.  Your modern Republican Party in action, folks!
  
• NM-Sen: Chuck Schumer and EMILY’s list are trying to recruit New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish to consider the Senate race.  Let’s hope Chuck can pull off another miracle here.
  
• IL-11: So get this: two of the Republicans running to succeed scandal-plagued Jerry Weller don’t exactly look formidable out of the starting gate.  New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman gets the kiss of death by being endorsed by Weller, while Marguerite Murer, a former Bush Administration staffer who ran the Correspondence office for the president, has fun inflating her bio:

  With the civilian rank equivalent to a two-star general, Marguerite charged forward leading Correspondence with solid business principles. From the war on terror and securing our homeland, to Medicare, Supreme Court nominations and the devastating Hurricane Katrina, Marguerite has communicated with millions of Americans. (Emphasis added)

  What a laugh.
  

• WA-08: Darcy Burner posts a big fundraising haul this quarter–$305K raised and $370K CoH, thanks in part to the netroots community during the Burn Bush effort this summer.
  
• NM-01: The Democratic primary is getting a lot more crowded in this open seat race, with state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham formally entering the race today.  The retirement of Wilson has been a blessing and a curse for Martin Heinrich, who was previously seen as the front runner for the nomination.

Yet another House Republican has come to the conclusion that being in the minority is a total bummer.  From Roll Call:

Republican sources confirmed Thursday that Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Ohio) will announce his retirement imminently, perhaps as soon as Friday. A Regula spokesman would not confirm the retirement announcement, saying the 18-term Congressman has made no such public announcement.

Regula has long been a prime candidate for retirement: he’s old, he doesn’t like being in the minority anymore, and he’s tired of the increasingly bitter atmosphere in DC.

Democrats feel good about making a hard run for Regula’s open seat, and they’ve already lined up a top recruit for the job: state Sen. John Boccieri, an Air Force vet who has served in Iraq.  This district has been trending Democratic since Bush carried it by a 53-42 margin in 2000.  Against John Kerry, Bush’s margin in the district narrowed to 54-46, and Democrats feel that Boccieri has the right profile to ride the Democratic trend and close the gap.

This will be a top tier race to watch.

UPDATE: Regula confirms it:

Longtime congressman Ralph Regula, whose years and power on the House Appropiations Committee made him a major player for northeast Ohio, confirmed to The Plain Dealer that he will not run for reelection next year.

“I will have been there for 36 years,” said Regula, 82, the dean of Ohio’s congressional delegation. “According to the Congressional Research Service, I am the longest continuously serving member ever in the history of Ohio.”

Race Tracker: OH-16

More 3rd Quarter fundraising reports–fresh from the FEC bakery.

FL-16:

Gayle Harrell (R): $95K raised; $184K CoH

NM-02:

Steve Pearce (R-inc): $251K raised; $582K CoH

PA-04:

Melissa Hart (R): $235K raised; $219K CoH
Ron Francis (R): $38K raised; $98K CoH

MN-03:

Terri Bonoff (D): $89K raised; $88K CoH (in about a week)

AK-AL:

Diane Benson (D): $35K raised; $28K CoH

AZ-05:

Jim Ogsbury (R): $100K raised + $250K personal loan

NE-Sen:

Jon Bruning (R): $223K raised; $955K CoH

OR-Sen:

Gordon Smith (R-inc): $827K raised; $4.04M CoH

Got any more numbers?  Post ’em in the comments.

UPDATE:

MI-09:

Gary Peters (D): $217K raised; $198K CoH (in about six weeks)

Huge news out of Alaska: former Democratic State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz has announced that he will run against the muck-encrusted GOP Rep. Don Young.  Berkowitz, considered a rising star within the state party, served five terms in the state House from 1996-2006 and ran for Lt. Governor on the ticket led by Tony Knowles last year.  You can check out his campaign website here.

Berkowitz has been heavily courted by the DCCC to run for the seat, but his name has also been mentioned as a potential opponent to Internet guru and Senator Ted Stevens if Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich passed on that race.  This is a pretty big development, as Begich and Berkowitz have been in contact with each other during the past few months to co-ordinate their potential campaigns and each settle on a target (Stevens or Young).  With Berkowitz formally in the ring against Young, we can safely assume that it’s a Senate bid or nothing for Begich.

Berkowitz faces former Alaska Democratic Party Chairman Jake Metcalfe and 2006 nominee Diane Benson in the Democratic primary.

UPDATE: It looks like Young will have a primary opponent–state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, a former Democrat.

Race Tracker: AK-AL

Another month, another opportunity to round up all the retirements and open seats that may pop up in next year’s House elections. We have a few changes since our last installment in September, with the retirements of Republicans Jerry Weller (IL-11) and Terry Everett (AL-02), and the decision of GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) to run for the Senate. IL-11 and NM-01 stand to be top-tier pick up opportunities for Democrats, and Democrats are hoping that a strong candidate emerges to give Republicans a run for their money in the Alabama seat. (Paging Bobby Bright?) One development that may lift NRCC spirits is the possibility that Jim Ramstad (MN-03) will un-retire, putting a toss-up district into much safer territory for Republicans. For now, we’ll keep him on The List, with the appropriate question mark.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Will retire
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Will resign
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring

That adds up to 10 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. As the retirement trends from the 2005/2006 cycle suggest, there still is plenty of time for more House members to grab a life preserver and bail.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Undecided
CT-04	Shays	R	D+5.4	63	Threatening retirement
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

Deletions from this list include Don Manzullo (IL-16), who filed to run again, and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01), who passed away from an ongoing battle with cancer on the weekend. I’ve added Tancredo and Lamborn in Colorado — both have questionable futures in the House. Another addition is Julia Carson, who returns to the list after being scratched last month. While she did announce her re-election, her poor health is increasingly becoming a major story in national and local media, and her fundraising has been beyond anemic. Unfortunately, I have little choice but to add her back to the watch list.

Babs Cubin is also staying on the list, despite saying recently that she “absolutely intends” to run again “at this point in time”. Uh-huh. “At this point in time” and “intend” in the same sentence is a huge retirement red flag. The same goes for New York Republican Jim McHugh, who put it a bit more strongly, but still left the door open for a vacancy by saying “at this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008”. Expectations have a funny habit of changing, and so does the mind of a congressman. He stays on the watch list.

Anyone else we should know about? Let us know in the comments.

Eric Black over at the Minnesota Monitor has the scoop: apparently, the NRCC is working fast and furious to convince retiring Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad to reverse his decision to retire… and, according to inside sources, Ramstad is seriously considering it.  And this decidedly non-Shermanesque statement from one of Ramstad’s aides leaves the door wide open for a change of heart:

“Jim has been overwhelmed by the huge number of Minnesotans urging him to reconsider, but he has no plans to run for re-election.”

“No plans” is legendary Washingtonspeak for “I haven’t made up my mind” or “I won’t tell you yet”.  It’s no surprise that the NRCC would make the effort to reverse Ramstad’s decision.  Without him on the ballot, Ramstad pushes what was once a safe seat into toss-up territory for the GOP, forcing national Republicans to spend precious resources defending the district that Bush carried by a narrow three point margin against Kerry in 2004.

And in an update, Eric Black writes that a second source believes that Republicans have a good shot at changing Ramstad’s mind:

A second and very reliable source, with insider knowledge of National Republican Congressional Committee efforts to get U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad to run for reelection next year, says the committee believes there’s a better than 50-50 chance Ramstad will do it.

Democrats have a strong contender in state Sen. Terri Bonoff, who reportedly raised $90K in about a week after jumping into the race.  Does Ramstad figure that she’ll withdraw her bid if he decides to run again?  If not, why on earth would he want to turn down retirement and face one of the more competitive races of his career?

Stay tuned.

Race Tracker: MN-03

It’s time for another round-up of all the third quarter fundraising reports for House and Senate campaigns.  (Our first two reports can be found here and here.)  The deadline for candidates to file their reports is the 15th, so we’ll still have to wait a few days until we get flooded with numbers.  If you’ve seen any other 3Q figures floating through the tubes, post ’em in the comments.

FL-22:

Allen West (R): $12.5K raised; $13K CoH

MN-01:

Randy Demmer (R): $17K raised; $56K CoH

NJ-03:

Jim Saxton (R-inc): $97K raised; $1.39M CoH

KS-03:

Nick Jordan (R): $108K raised; $99K CoH

PA-03:

Kyle Foust (D): $42K raised; $27K CoH

CA-42:

Gary Miller (R-inc): $39K raised; $801K CoH

MI-07:

Mark Schauer (D): $220K raised; $195K CoH (in five weeks)

CA-04:

Eric Egland (R): $77K raised; $70K CoH (in two months)

IL-14:

Chris Lauzen (R): $210K raised + $325K personal donation (source: House Race Hotline)

PA-10:

Chris Hackett (R): $245K raised CoH (source: HRH)

MI-09:

Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): $400K raised; $860K CoH

Update:

IN-04:

Nels Ackerson (D): $134K raised

SurveyUSA has released its first poll showing who New Mexicans would like to see replace Republican Pete Domenici in the US Senate:

Tom Udall (D): 55
Steve Pearce (R): 37

Tom Udall (D): 56
Heather Wilson (R): 38

Bill Richardson (D): 60
Steve Pearce (R): 36

Bill Richardson (D): 62
Heather Wilson (R): 35

Marty Chavez (D): 35
Steve Pearce (R): 56

Marty Chavez (D): 44
Heather Wilson (R): 48

Patricia Madrid (D): 38
Steve Pearce (R): 54

Patricia Madrid (D): 45
Heather Wilson (R): 46

Don Wiviott (D): 23
Steve Pearce (R): 58

Don Wiviott (D): 34
Heather Wilson (R): 51

MoE: ± 4.4%, n=514

While this round of polling is likely a reflection of name-recognition, it does provide us with a valuable baseline.

Of course, it's disappointing to see that a candidate with numbers like Tom Udall has already turned down a run for the seat. And, as of now, Bill Richardson is still running for President.

It looks like Republicans are going to field another repeat candidate next fall: former Rep. Mike Sodrel will announce whether he’ll run against Democratic incumbent Baron Hill tomorrow, and a candidate doesn’t usually go through all this fuss unless they’re actually running:

  Mike Sodrel Will Announce His Decision

  When: 3:30pm on Tuesday, October 9th

  Where: Calumet Club
  1614 E. Spring Street
  New Albany, IN

  Please join us,

  David Buskill
  Chairman, Clark County Republican Party

If Sodrel is in, this would bring “rematch” to a whole new level — this would be the fourth time that he and Hill faced off against each other, with only the 2004 match-up being successful for Sodrel.

Race Tracker: IN-09