Tag: 2008 Elections

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

If you ever had the misfortune of being on being on the receiving end of an National Republican Congressional Committee media alert last cycle, you’ll know that they took special delight in mocking DCCC Chair Rahm Emmanuel for his supposed recruiting failures in key House races.  These press releases always were marked by the title “DCCC Delusions”.  Since the NRCC has had some notable difficulties in recruiting top-shelf challengers in a number of districts (OH-15, anyone?) this year, why don’t we tally up all the candidates who took a pass on efforts by the national and state Republican parties to recruit them into House races.

I’ve got a few so far, but I have a feeling that I’m just scratching the surface.  Post any additional recruitment failures in the comments section below, if you know of any.

AZ-01: Ex-state Sen. President Ken Bennett
CT-02: Former US Rep. Rob Simmons
FL-16: Former state Rep. and ’06 candidate Joe Negron
FL-22: Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Sen. Jeff Atwater
FL-22: State Rep. Adam Hasner
FL-22: State Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff
FL-22: Palm Beach Co Commis. Mary McCarty
IL-11: State Sen. Christine Radogno
ME-01: State Sen. Jon Courtney
MN-01: Former US Rep. Gil Gutknecht
NC-11: State Sen. Tom Apodaca
NH-02: Former US Rep. Charlie Bass
NY-19: Former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer
OH-15: Former state AG Jim Petro
OH-15: Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka
OH-15: Former WBNS-TV anchor Dave Kaylor
OH-15: State Rep. Jon Husted
OH-15: State Rep. Jim Hughes
OH-15: State Sen. Steve Stivers
OH-15: Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes
PA-04: Former Pittsburgh Steeler and ’06 Gov Nominee Lynn Swann
PA-10: Former Deputy state AG Joe Peters
PA-10: U.S. Attorney Thomas A. Marino
TX-22: Sugarland Mayor David Wallace
TX-22: Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt
TX-22: State Rep. John Zerwas

When Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House, decided to enter the Democratic primary to take on Republican Sen. Gordon Smith at the end of July, the only announced candidate, Steve Novick, didn’t raise a fuss.  In fact, his cordial response set what appeared to be a friendly tone for the primary campaign in the months ahead:

I commend Jeff’s decision to follow me in taking on Gordon Smith. […]

I look forward to an inspired primary where each of us makes our case for why we must replace Gordon Smith and presents our respective visions for Oregon and America. And I propose a series of joint appearances across the state with Jeff and any other candidates that enter the primary to let voters make up their minds.

[…] Over the next ten months, I plan to travel the state – listening to voters’ concerns and sharing my vision. It would be my great pleasure to have Jeff join me in that journey.

However, despite Novick’s proposal for a primary campaign with the heat directed entirely at Gordon Smith, it sure appears that Novick is spending a great deal of time launching unprovoked barbs at Merkley.  One of the first signs came in late August, when Novick found himself reading similar talking points as the state GOP to portray Merkley as a candidate who has flip-flopped on the Iraq War–something that isn’t true–because of a non-binding resolution passed by the Oregon House in 2003 that Merkley voted for in order to express solidarity with the troops.  Remarks that Merkley made on the House floor clearly corroborate Merkley’s claim that he was opposed to the war since the beginning.

Next up, Novick slammed Merkley as the “insider’s candidate” in a message sent to his online supporters after a recent fundraising push:

And yes, if you’re wondering, we outdid our opponent in the Democratic primary in online fundraising this week. The insiders’ candidate sent out the same kind of last-week appeal that we did – to an email list that seems to include everybody in the state – and you smoked ’em. Oh, we’re sure he got lots of big checks this quarter; that’s what insider candidates do. But in online last-week enthusiasm, you rocked him hard.

Huh.  And here I thought his campaign was about “rocking Smith hard”.  My mistake.

But wait, it gets better!  Both candidates recently announced their third quarter fundraising totals.  Merkley outraised Novick by a $294K to $125K margin.  While not extremely strong numbers for Merkley, he did begin his campaign at the start of August, and therefore only had two months to raise funds for the quarter compared to Novick’s three.  Nevertheless, Novick’s campaign wasted no time in releasing the following statement to the press:

From Merkley’s campaign spokesman Russ Kelley: “People are really responding to Jeff’s message of opportunity and his solid record of accomplishment.”

Or are they? says Novick’s campaign manager Jake Weigler. Democratic Senate candidates in other states who, like Merkley, were recruited by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, have posted much higher fund-raising totals.

“Merkley’s ‘surge’ did not succeed,” Weigler said. “These numbers show it’s going to be a highly competitive primary.”

Excuse me?  Merkley’s “surge”?  Certainly an interesting choice of words.

So what kind of primary campaign is Steve Novick running?

You tell me.

From the Albuquerque Journal:

I just learned from a source very close to Rep. Tom Udall that the Democratic congressman will NOT seek the U.S. Senate seat that Pete Domenici will vacate at the end of 2008.

The source tells me that Udall, after some serious soul-searching over the past 24 hours, has decided that he can do a better job for New Mexico in the U.S. House, where he has a coveted spot on the appropriations committee.

“It was not a decision that was made lightly,” the source told me. “He wants to continue increasing in seniority in the House.”

I hope this doesn’t mean that we’ll be saddled with a Marty Chavez candidacy.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

Republicans have finally found a candidate to challenge frosh Democrat Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s 2nd District: former Army captain Chris Minor, who is currently a Blackwater contractor working in Iraq, is taking the plunge in the R+4.3 district.

I won’t comment in detail on Blackwater, whose reputation has taken a beating since several of its contractors engaged in a trigger-happy shooting exchange with Iraqi soldiers and civilians several weeks ago.

I will, however, seriously question a guy who says this:

Minor said he would like to replace Pelosi with Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., “the pride and joy of the conservative movement.”

Pence “lives and breathes Christian values we all respect,” said Minor, a retired U.S. Army captain who continues serving in Iraq as an intelligence analyst for the State Department.

Mike Pence?  The same guy who described the Shorja market in Baghdad as “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime”?  I guess in Indiana, a normal market in the summertime is guarded by 100 soldiers in humvees, sharpshooters on the rooftops, attack helicopters circling overhead, and all incoming traffic blocked by military personnel.

Seriously: Mike Pence?  I shudder to imagine a House under his speakership.  It’s no wonder that someone who would like to follow in his footsteps would give a reality-challenged soundbite like this one:

“Our country’s at war right now,” said Minor, explaining why he is running. “Unfortunately, the majority of America has forgotten about why we’re there, who attacked us, how we were attacked, the nature of the attack.”

Minor said it is time for Americans to reawaken to the fact that “we are threatened” and that there is a scourge “that wants nothing more than to destroy us.”

Um, do you really want to have a conversation about the facts, Chris?  I’d love to hear his wild-eyed theory on how Saddam aided and abetted the 9/11 hijackers.  While we’re at it, someone should ask him if he agrees that Iraq resembles Indiana in the summertime.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-02

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

Since our last post got buried, let’s put up a new one rounding up the third quarter financial reports for candidates running for House and Senate seats next year.  As you know, the deadline for campaigns to file these reports is on the 15th, but some figures have been released already.  Let’s take a look at a few.  If you know of any others, post ’em in the comments.

IL-14:

Bill Foster (D): ~$200K raised, and a $200K personal loan ($408K total)

VA-10:

Judy Feder (D): $223K raised

Update:

OK-Sen:

Andrew Rice (D): $310K raised

Very impressive for only 60 days of fundraising in a deep red state.  Compare it with Rick Noriega’s $570K in Texas, a much larger state with a deeper Democratic fundraising base.  Quite a decent start for Rice.

MN-Sen:

Al Franken (DFL): $1.89 million
Norm Coleman (R-inc.): $1.7 million

Huge news.  Why?  Because more than half of Coleman’s cash ($1 million, to be precise) came from a single fundraising event with President Bush.  This means that Coleman only raised $700K during the other 91 days in the quarter. Moreover, apart from the fundraiser, Coleman raised less than $8000 a day during the quarter while Franken raised more than TWENTY thousand a day during the quarter.

CO-Sen:

Mark Udall (D): $1.1 million+ raised; $3.1 million CoH

National Democrats have exactly three targets in New Jersey that they would like to seriously contest: Mike Ferguson (7th District), Jim Saxton (3rd District), and Frank LoBiondo (2nd District).  In two of those three races, the DCCC has their preferred candidates: state Rep. Linda Stender is in for a rematch against Ferguson, and state Sen. Jim Adler is taking on Saxton.  If state Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew entered the race against Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo, he would complete the trifecta.  The only problem?  Van Drew is currently locked in a tooth-and-nail campaign against Republican state Sen. Nicholas Asselta, and he has to win that race first before thinking of another promotion.

Van Drew didn’t do much to quiet the speculation today, as he played it coy on the question of a potential 2008 congressional campaign:

“What I’ve made clear is there’s only one thing on my mind now, and that is winning the State Senate seat in the first legislative district,” said Van Drew. “I have a lot of my plate and that’s all I’m thinking about. And that’s all I’m going to comment.”

That non-committal response is in stark contrast to his campaign’s official line last month:

“He’s not running for Congress. He’s got way too much on his plate right now,” said Allison Murphy, who is managing Van Drew’s campaign to oust Asselta. “I can safely say he’s not running next year, but maybe sometime soon.”

Unsurprisingly, Asselta is slamming Van Drew for the statement.

LoBiondo would be a tough foe to beat.  His campaign coffers are flush with over $1.5 million on hand and he has always dominated his district by wide margins.  Not in his favor, however, is the following fact about his district: its PVI is D+4.  While Kerry actually lost the district by one point in 2004, Gore carried it by a healthy 11 point margin in 2000.  Rather than changing demographics, we saw a 9/11 bounce for Bush that was pronounced throughout New Jersey.  And, if the Republican presidential nominee is anyone other than Rudy Giuliani, I expect those top-of-the-ticket numbers to return to their 2000 level.  If Democrats and progressives hope to expand their caucus, this is exactly the kind of seat they should be targeting.

We’ll just have to wait and see if Van Drew can win his state Senate race this fall before we know who LoBiondo will line up against.

Race Tracker: NJ-02

With the news of Republican Sen. Pete Domenici’s expected retirement announcement tomorrow morning, let’s take a look at all the rumored candidates on the Democratic side to replace him:

State Attorney General and former 1st Congressional District candidate Patricia Madrid

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez

US Rep. Tom Udall

Former US Attorney John Kelly

Lt. Governor Diane Denish

Governor and Presidential candidate Bill Richardson

As the Hotline notes, the biggest wildcard here is Richardson.  If he wanted to, he could wait until his Prez bid flames out in the early primary states, as New Mexico has a February 8th filing deadline for the Senate race.  He would undoubtedly be the favorite in the primary and general.  However, how wise (and realistic) is it to wait for a Richardson entry at the 11th hour?

Chavez doesn’t inspire me, for what it’s worth.  I cannot forget this cringeworthy article in which he promised that not only would he not run against Domenici, he’d also vote for him.  On top of that, his endorsed candidates in this week’s city council elections all lost handily.  Ouch.

Jonathan Singer wants Udall.  How about you?  Who should run?  Who will run?

Update: While we’re at it, let’s look at the GOP’s bench in the state: Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Given that Wilson is tarred by the same scandal that dogged Domenici for most of the year, she can no longer be considered a formidable candidate.  Given that the GOP bench is pretty much her and Pearce, that’s disastrous.  Who else could run for them?  Former US Attorney David Iglesias?  Or is he too disgusted with DC Republicans to even join their team anymore?

Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

The junior Congressman From Clear Channel has been notably silent during the uproar over rightwing talk show host Rush Limbaugh’s attack on U.S. troops who oppose the White House’s misadventure in Iraq as “phony soldiers.”

Now Rep. McCaul’s brother-in-law, the CEO of the company that broadcast Limbaugh’s diatribe, is defending the indefensible.

“It would be unfair for me to assume his statements were intended to personally indict combat soldiers,” said Mr. Clear Channel, as quoted in part by Fox News.

http://www.foxnews.c…

It’s time for Mike McCaul to come out of hiding and tell us whether he stands with Rush Limbaugh and his in-laws — which include the Chairman, the CEO, and the President of Clear Channel — or with the brave men and women who are defending Limbaugh’s right to broadcast such irresponsible statements.

Sincerely,

Dan Grant

http://www.dangrantf…

Max Baucus is up with an early ad highlighting his efforts to expand the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, and criticizing President Bush for his expected veto of the legislation:

The Montana Republican party has issued a laughable response:

The state GOP noted SCHIP has the support of many Republicans in the state, including U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg.

“This is an important issue for Montana,” said state Republican Party Executive Director Chris Wilcox. “I think it’s unfortunate that Baucus decided to politicize the issue.”

Wilcox said Baucus should be working with the Bush administration to advance SCHIP, rather than spending time making television advertisements.

Really?  I think it’s unfortunate that Bush has no interest in supporting this bipartisan legislation to expand badly needed health coverage to children across the country.  Perhaps the Montana GOP would be better served to direct their criticism towards the President, who (along with the crumb-bums in the House who are sustaining his veto threat) is the sole roadblock in the way of advancing social justice for kids.

(H/T: Left in the West)