Tag: 2008 Elections

Eric Eidsness, the Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat who scored 11% of the vote on the third party line against Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2006, has dropped out of the Democratic primary:

“The hand writing is on the wall and I see it is not my time to be elected to national office to represent (Colorado’s 4th Congressional District),” Eidsness said in a prepared statement. “While my populist message appeals to a broad range of voters, particularly in the more rural areas, I do not have the support I will need here in Larimer County to win the Democratic nomination.”

Eidsness’ announcement comes hot on the heels of ’06 Democratic candidate Angie Paccione’s decision to drop out.  With Eidsness and Paccione out, the field is now clear for Betsy Markey.

Contrary to what Chris Cillizza may believe, I would not rank Colorado’s 4th in the top ten competitive House races of 2008.  Part of that may be the lack of a top tier challenger (it remains to be seen whether Markey can bring the noise, even if she has credible connections), but Musgrave’s chances are helped by her decision to tone down her obsession with socially regressive causes (publicly, at least), and the tilt-red nature of the district (Bush won it by 17 points in 2004).  That’s not to say that I don’t think this race will be competitive, or that the potential for a Markey upset isn’t there, but I feel that our clearest shot at this district passed us by last November.

(H/T: ColoradoPols)

While we're still waiting for an official announcement, sources close to Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson say she's decided to seek the seat currently held by Republican Jerry Weller. Halvorson has been heavily recruited over the past few weeks by the DCCC and EMILY's List.

Update: Politico has the details: 

In a big recruiting coup for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) has decided to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.).

“She sees this as a historic time in Washington, and she wants to be a part of it,” said one Democratic operative familiar with her decision. “She wants to bring the things she accomplished in Illinois to Washington.”

However, just last night the Politico was reporting that a Halvorson run was unlikely. Their source was an Illinois Democratic operative who was only able to parrot Halvorson's own comments on the matter.

Compare Politico's “Illinois Democratic operative” (October 1):

It’s hard to be one of 435 when you can be the first woman state Senate president in Illinois

to Debbie Halvorson herself (September 19):

I don't know if I want to be one person out of 435. Compared to, possibly, being the first-ever woman Senate president, I don't know. It's a big decision.

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-45 – R+3,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-10 – R+15,

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

342 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 109 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 109
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 23
Districts without any candidates – 67

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
IL-18 – R+5.5,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington. Thats 21 states with a full slate, and 7 states with one race to fill! That is more than half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 13 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

It’s official — or it will be on Monday, at least: former Minnesota Department of Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg will run for Congress next year against freshman Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th District.

Tinklenberg, as you may recall, ran for the Democratic nomination in 2006, but was passed over for the party nomination in favor of Patty Wetterling (after she had dropped out of the Senate race).  Wetterling went on to lose the general by a wider than anticipated margin (50% to 42%), leaving Democrats feeling that their best shot to pick up the 6th slipped through their fingers.  But Bachmann is a true nutter, and has embarrassed herself on more than one occasion, from playing touch and grab with the President on the floor of the House to claiming to have the inside dope on Iran’s secret plan to partition Iraq into “the Iraq state of Islam”.

It would by no means be an easy race to win for Tinklenberg, but his candidacy does put the district back on the map for Democrats.

Race Tracker: MN-06

Barely a week after announcing his candidacy, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub will exit the Republican primary to succeed retiring Senator Chuck Hagel, the Omaha World-Herald reports:

Daub, 66, was expected to announce today that the time is not right for his campaign, said four people close to Daub who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

His announcement comes on the heels of GOP powerhouse Mike Johanns’ expected entry into the race. Johanns, twice elected governor and then appointed U.S. agriculture secretary, shook up the GOP primary battle last week when he resigned his post in President Bush’s Cabinet.

Johanns has the backing of the Washington, D.C., GOP establishment and a proven ability to run a strong, grass-roots campaign in Nebraska. Unlike Daub, Johanns has won two statewide races. Daub, who also is a former congressman, lost two prior U.S. Senate bids.

Daub did not return telephone calls.

But he began to call friends and supporters Thursday afternoon to break the news that he was getting out. He told them it was an uphill battle when he began, and that it became much tougher with a Johanns candidacy.

Despite his resentment towards the NRSC for their efforts to clear the field for Johanns, Daub seems to know what’s coming: a recent poll released by the NRSC had Daub trailing Johanns and Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning by a 58%-16%-12% margin among GOP primary voters.  Ouch.

Meanwhile, former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey is sending out more mixed signals, this time by saying that the prospect of a Senate candidacy “excites” him, but that his only concern is the toll it might take on his young son, Henry.  We can expect his decision “soon”.

(Big hat-tips to the New Nebraska Network)

A source close to the DCCC tells us that Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson will be traveling to D.C. this weekend to meet with DCCC officials, Emily’s List, and several House members who are all trying to recruit her to run for the seat of retiring Republican crumb-bum Jerry Weller.  With a PVI of R+1.1, the suburban district is a ripe pick-up opportunity for Democrats looking to expand their majority.

Halvorson faces a choice of hanging on to become the first female Senate President in Illinois history or to join the ranks of the House Democratic caucus in DC.  She is expected to make her decision shortly after her trip to the capitol.

Last night, the House passed the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act, preserving coverage for 6.6 million children whose parents do not qualify for Medicaid, but can not afford private insurance, and expanding the program to bring badly-needed health coverage to millions more children in low-income families. The roll call vote was 265 to 159, 25 votes short of a veto-proof margin. 45 Republicans broke ranks to support 220 Democrats on the legislation, while 151 Republicans and 8 Democrats cold-heartedly voted “no”.

It always amazes me that Republicans are eager to put on their “fiscal conservative” hats when it comes to taking care of society’s most vulnerable constituencies, but are so willing to rubberstamp billions upon billions for an endless war in Iraq with no questions asked. But when it comes to healthcare for kids? Oh no, we can’t afford that kind of pro-life legislation. In the words of crumb-bum extraordinaire David Dreier (R-CA):

“It dramatically expands the welfare state,” said Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif.

The following is a list of incumbents from districts with a PVI of R+6 or weaker, in order of the strongest Democratic seats to the most Republican seats in this bracket. Maybe the following Representatives forever be relegated to the crumb-bum hall of shame:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
FL-11	Kathy Castor	D	D+11.0
OH-10	Dennis Kucinich	D	D+8.3
NJ-03	Jim Saxton	R	D+3.3
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	R	R+0.1
OH-01	Steve Chabot	R	R+0.5
IL-11	Jerry Weller	R	R+1.1
MI-11	Thaddeus McCotter	R	R+1.2
MI-08	Mike Rogers	R	R+1.9
WI-01	Paul Ryan	R	R+2.2
MI-07	Tim Walberg	R	R+2.5
NC-02	Bob Etheridge	D	R+2.7
MN-02	John Kline	R	R+2.7
NC-07	Mike McIntyre	D	R+2.8
IL-06	Pete Roskam	R	R+2.9
FL-08	Ric Keller	R	R+3.0
NC-08	Robin Hayes	R	R+3.0
FL-24	Tom Feeney	R	R+3.1
NY-26	Tom Reynolds	R	R+3.5
MI-04	Dave Camp	R	R+4.0
CA-26	Dave Dreier	R	R+4.1
FL-07	John Mica	R	R+4.1
FL-15	Dave Weldon	R	R+4.1
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	R	R+4.3
AL-03	Mike Rogers	R	R+4.3
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	R	R+4.3
NJ-05	Scott Garrett	R	R+4.4
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4
IL-16	Don Manzullo	R	R+4.5
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	R	R+4.6
IL-13	Judy Biggert	R	R+4.7
IL-14	Dennis Hastert	R	R+4.8
MO-06	Sam Graves	R	R+4.8
VA-04	Randy Forbes	R	R+4.9
OK-02	Dan Boren	D	R+4.9
FL-04	Ginny Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1
MN-06	Michele Bachmann	R	R+5.1
NY-29	Randy Kuhl	R	R+5.2
FL-12	Adam Putnam	R	R+5.3
NJ-11	Rodney Frelinghuysen	R	R+5.5
VA-05	Virgil Goode	R	R+5.6
NM-02	Steve Pearce	R	R+5.7
VA-02	Thelma Drake	R	R+5.9
AZ-03	John Shadegg	R	R+5.9
CA-44	Ken Calvert	R	R+6.0
CA-46	Dana Rohrbacher	R	R+6.0

Dishonorable mentions go to Democrats Baron Hill (IN-09), Jim Marshall (GA-08), and Gene Taylor (MS-04), who also voted against the bill, but represent redder districts than the ones listed in this chart. If the likes of Chet Edwards, Nick Lampson, and Jim Matheson, who represent some of the toughest districts in the nation for a Democrat to hold, can find ways to vote for this crucial legislation, surely you guys can rediscover your inner Democrat when healthcare for kids is at stake.

Challengers running against these Representatives would be well-advised to hammer their opponents hard on this bill. As Greg Sargent notes:

The poll finds that voters side with Dems on the issue by 60%-35%; that independents want the program expanded by a 34-point margin, 62%-28%; and that voters in Republican-held districts also overwhelmingly favor the expansion, 55%-39%.

One such candidate isn’t wasting any time. Dennis Kucinich’s primary challenger, Rosemary Palmer, hits him hard:

I was appalled by Congressman Kucinich’s vote against the State Children’s Health Insurance Program on the House floor tonight. This bill would have expanded an already successful program to provide health insurance to millions of children across the country. It takes some twisted logic for someone who claims to support health care coverage for all to oppose this necessary and overdue move in the right direction.

Amen.

One day after voting against extending the same kind of taxpayer-funded health care he himself enjoys to more than four million eligible American children who have no insurance at all, Mike McCaul has found a cause he can support — condemning the free expression of opinion by a group of citizens during an important national debate.

The testimony to Congress by Gen. David Petraeus about the civil war in Iraq and what the U.S. should do about it was notable for at least two reasons:

  * The aimlessness of the White House’s policy
  * The absence of one of that policy’s chief cheerleaders, Mike McCaul

That is, until now. Mr. McCaul has finally roused himself long enough to participate in a shallow charade that does nothing to make us safer, bring our troops home, or make up for rubberstamping the Bush-Cheney administration’s misadventure in Iraq.

I served as a civilian in Iraq. I watched all kinds of men and women from all walks of life work their hearts out to try to fix this disaster. And while Mr. McCaul engaged in this pointless theatre, some of those people may have died. Shame on him.

Sincerely,

Dan Grant

http://www.dangrantf…

And yet another Republican has decided that being in the minority cramps their style. Rep. Terry Everett (R-AL) announced his retirement this morning:

In February I will celebrate my 71st birthday. While there remains much work to be accomplished by Congress, I made a difficult decision over the weekend not to seek election for a ninth term.

In a district that clocks in at R+13, the GOP will likely have a wealth of candidates declare for the race. State Representatives David Grimes and Jay Love, both of Montgomery, are likely contenders. When asked in July about Everett potentially retiring, Grimes told the Montgomery Advertiser "I'd love to follow a man like that."  

However, Democrats also have a strong bench in the area. State House Speaker Seth Hammett (D-Andalusia) lives in the district, and could potentially be wooed into the race. In addition, state Senators Jimmy Holley (D-Elba) and "Walking' Wendell Mitchell (D-Luverne) have been mentioned in the past as candidates. Other names thrown about include state Rep. Terry Spicer (D-Elba) and Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, who recently took 60% in his re-election bid among a crowded field.

And while we've been disappointed in the past, it's worth noting that Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks has also been mentioned as a candidate.

Update: State Rep. Jay Love (R-Montgomery) says he's "definitely running" and “has been on the phone all day with supporters.”

Update 2: State Rep. Greg Wren (R-Montgomery) has formed an exploratory committee.

Update 3: Speaker Seth Hammett (D-Andalusia) passes on race. 

Democrats finally have a challenger to contest the open seat left behind by retiring Republican Rep. Ray LaHood: former NBA coach Dick Versace.  The Peoria Journal-Star has the scoop:

Former NBA and Bradley basketball coach Dick Versace hopes to add another win to his record with a bid for Congress.

“I’m all in,” Versace, a Democrat, said Thursday.

His confirmation ends several weeks of speculation about whether he would seek election for the 18th Congressional District seat held by Ray LaHood, who is not seeking re-election.

He said he’ll hold a news conference to officially announce his bid in the next couple weeks. After that, Versace will take off in a 38-foot motor home he will call “The Common Sense Express.”

“The Common Sense Express is going to visit all 20 counties in the district,” he said. “I’m going to go on a listening tour.”

Versace started his career as a teacher and later became a basketball coach, coaching at Bradley University from 1979 to 1986 and winning three Missouri Valley Conference championships and an NIT title. He later coached in the NBA, as an assistant coach for Detroit and head coach at Indiana. He was a television color commentator for Turner Broadcasting and NBC in Chicago and an assistant coach at Milwaukee. He also led an acquisition team to purchase the Vancouver Grizzlies and was president and later general manager of the team in Memphis.

With a PVI of R+5.5, the 18th District would be tough sledding for any Democrat (Bush won this district by 10% and 16% margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively), but not impossible.  Versace is a wildcard option, but perhaps his semi-celebrity appeal and anti-war stance could spark an interesting campaign here.

Navy vet Chuck Giger has also entered the race as a Democrat, and former state Rep. Bill Edley is also considering joining the fray.  State Rep. Aaron Schock, considered a “rising star” in Illinois GOP circles, is the Republican front runner.

Race Tracker: IL-18