Tag: 2008 Elections

In a huge boost for Democratic hopes to expand their House majority, Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) will face a major challenge in his bid for a 14th term in 2008.  Democratic state Sen. John Adler announced yesterday that he will challenge the incumbent.  It would be Adler’s second challenge to Saxton: his first attempt, in 1990 at age 31, fell short by 19 points.  But Democrats believe that Adler, who seasoned himself with lengthy experience in the New Jersey state Senate since his Congressional loss, is their guy to finally oust Saxton.

“Not since Watergate have the Republicans been this low in national public opinion polls — and in New Jersey, Republicans are held in even lower esteem than the national average,” said Steve Ayscue, a Democratic strategist. “If things stay the course, Democrats can expect to make gains in the U.S. House by as many as 20 seats or more next year. It certainly helps that the national Democrats have been busy recruiting top-notch talent to run for Senate and House seats — candidates who can raise substantial money independent of the leadership.”

Ayscue continued: “I’ve never seen this much attention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on New Jersey races, including the 3rd District — perhaps because this district is strikingly similar, demographically, to Congressman Patrick Murphy’s ‘swing’ district in suburban Pennsylvania. The last time Senator Adler ran for this seat it was 1990 and a very difficult political environment for Democrats. This time around I expect Senator Adler to run a highly effective campaign to prove the need for change, but given Saxton’s lock-step support of the failed Bush-Rove agenda he will make the case for Adler even easier.”

As Democrats aim to expand their House majority, districts like Saxton’s are a good place to start.  While Bush won the district by under 3% in 2004, Al Gore carried the district by a wide 10% margin in 2000.  With the chance of the Democratic Presidential nominee improving upon John Kerry’s mediocre performance in the state, Adler and the DCCC hope to channel voter discontent over the war in Iraq into another pick-up opportunity.  Adler starts the campaign with a leg up over other potential candidates: he has $194,000 available in his coffers — money left over from a Senatorial campaign committee that he opened in 2003 in the event of a retirement from Senator Frank Lautenberg.

(H/T: Blue Jersey)

With the likely retirement of Republican Rep. Tom Davis from the House in order to pursue a Senate bid against Democratic superstar Mark Warner next year, Republicans will be left to defend a House seat in northern Virginia that is trending hard in the Democrats’ favor.  With a PVI of R+0.6, Davis’ district went to Bush twice: by 7% in 2000, but only by a slim 1% margin in 2004.  Additionally, Mark Warner carried this district by a 55.5%-43.8% margin in his 2001 gubernatorial bid.  Democrat Tim Kaine carried it by a 55.67%-42.42% margin in 2005, and Jim Webb edged Republican Sen. George Allen in the district by 54.69%-44.20%.

It’s no surprise then, that local and national Democrats are eyeing this district hungrily.  Navy vet Doug Denneny was the first to declare for the seat, and others are expected to follow.  According to Lowell over at Raising Kaine, a familiar Virginia name is soon to follow:

Today, former 11th District Congresswoman Leslie Byrne filed an exploratory committee: “Byrne for Congress Exploratory Committee.”  Looks like the race to replace Tom Davis is heating up!

Byrne, as you may recall, represented the 11th District for one term after the 1992 elections, before being routed in the Republican sweep of 1994.  She lost the primary for the Democratic Senate nomination in 1996 (to Mark Warner, no less), but narrowly won election as a state Senator for a single term from 1999-2003.  In 2005, she ran as the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor.  Not favored to win statewide, the Democratic tide in the state lifted her to within 1% of Republican Bill Bolling’s vote total.

I don’t have a moose in this race, but I’m very curious to see how this primary unfolds, and if this development will affect the decision-making process of Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly.

Race Tracker: VA-11

According to Roll Call, embattled GOP Rep. Jerry Weller will confirm his retirement on Friday:

Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.), who has had to fend off allegations in recent weeks about questionable Central American land deals, will announce Friday that he will not seek an eighth term in 2008, inside sources confirmed late Thursday.

After the news of his retirement first leaked yesterday, Weller’s campaign manager worked to put a damper on the news, insisting that the congressman was going to run again.  It looks like Weller will put that to rest tomorrow.

How much do you want to bet that Weller seeks asylum with his in-laws in Nicaragua?

Race Tracker: IL-11

The slow trickle of open seats left by House Republicans is beginning to become a drum beat.  Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL), who has been dogged by inquiries regarding his suspect land deals in Nicaragua in recent weeks, is going to bail out on Congress after his current term expires, according to Roll Call.

Weller’s district is competitive terrain that Bush won by a 53%-46% margin in 2004, but only by two points against Al Gore.  Earlier today, Trent wrote that Emily’s List is heavily recruiting state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to run for the seat.  An open seat here would undoubtedly launch this Illinois district into the top tier of 2008’s House races–meaning another headache for the GOP.

(H/T: TPM EC)

Race Tracker: IL-11

UPDATE (David): Weller made it official on Friday.

Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels has had a bit of a bumpy first term.  Controversy surrounding his initiative to privatize Indiana’s toll road, his efforts to push the state into following daylight savings time, and his clashes with the state legislature over tax increases wore down his approval rating dramatically.  In fact, Daniels’ disapproval ratings were higher than his approval ratings for all but one of SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking polls during 2006. 

Research 2000 has released the first poll of Daniels’ re-election race, and of the Democratic primary between state Senator Richard Young, businessman Jim Schellinger, and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson.  The results are not pretty for Mitch.

First, the Governor’s approvals:

Q: How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Excellent/Good: 45
Fair/Poor: 47
Not Sure: 8

MoE: ±3.5%

Next, the straight-up re-election numbers:

Q: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote to reelect Mitch Daniels, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Daniels?

Re-Elect: 39
Would Consider Another Candidate: 21
Would Not Re-Elect: 37

Interestingly, 14% of Republicans polled would consider voting for another candidate, and 12% would vote for someone else.  In a general election match-up poll against Jill Long Thompson, Daniels isn’t exactly sitting in a position of strength:

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38
Undecided: 16

That’s a surprisingly strong showing by Thompson, who served in the House from 1988 to 1994, and narrowly lost a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in Indiana’s 2nd District in 2002.  The poll also shows her in a strong position to win the Democratic primary:

Jill Long Thompson: 41
Richard Young: 16
Jim Schellinger: 10

Daniels still has over a year to turn this ship around, but he’s showing a great deal of weakness this far out.  Perhaps Indiana voters are realizing that Bush’s man is not theirs.

(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)

Republican Rep. Peter King, apparently channeling the same demons that possess Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA), unleashed some harsh words towards the American Muslim community in a recent interview:

Unfortunately, we have too many mosques in this country. There are too many people who are sympathetic to radical Islam. We should be looking at them more carefully. We should be finding out how we can infiltrate. […]

I think there’s been a lack of full cooperation from too many people in the Muslim community. And it’s a real threat here in this country.

You can watch the interview yourself over at YouTube.  As ThinkProgress notes, this is hardly the first time that King has had harsh words for Muslim-Americans.

Republicans benefited from a 9/11 bounce in King’s district in 2004, when Bush carried the Long Island-based 3rd District by 5 points after losing by 8 to Gore four years earlier.  His normally lofty re-election margins took a hit last year, when he dispatched late-starting challenger Dave Mejias by a 56%-44% margin.  If, however, you believe that the Democratic presidential nominee will rebound to Gore’s 2000 margin (or better), then targeting King for defeat could be worthwhile.

According to the Lincoln Journal Star and the Omaha World-Herald, Agriculture Secretary and former Nebraska Gov. Mike Johanns will announce his entry into the Republican primary next week for the seat currently held by the departing Senator Chuck Hagel:

It looks like Republican Mike Johanns is ready to come home and run for the U.S. Senate.

Johanns, who is U.S. agriculture secretary, spent part of last week shopping for a home in Omaha, said Michael Kennedy, a Johanns supporter and GOP activist.

The former governor will have a “major announcement” next week, Kennedy said.

“I’m fairly confident Mike’s announcement will be positive for the citizens of Nebraska,” Kennedy said Tuesday night.

Johanns, a popular former Governor, would be the heavyweight in the GOP primary against state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Representative and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Pat Flynn.  He would also prove to be a formidable opponent to former Democratic Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey, who is expected to announce a decision of his own in the very near future.

Kerrey had to have been expecting a tough candidate like Johanns to run against, so I’m not sure if this development will affect his deliberations.  In any event, it looks like the Nebraska Senate race could prove to be a clash of two statewide titans.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

With the bombshell news of Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement, it’s about time to post another edition of our ongoing House Open Seat Watch series. Much has changed since our last installment in this series back in August. The list of House retirements has swelled with the addition of Reps. Renzi, Pickering, Pryce, Hastert, and, of course, Ramstad. We’ve also had to scratch one retirement, as Illinois Democrat Luís Gutiérrez has withdrawn his resignation.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Will resign
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring

Ramstad’s retirement is a serious blow to House Republicans, who now have to deal with several open seats in politically competitive terrain that could easily fall to strong Democratic challengers. Personally popular, Ramstad enjoyed robust margins of victory in a district that Bush won by only four and three point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Add to that the likely vacancy left behind by GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia as he attempts to block former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner’s ascendancy to the Senate, and Republicans are facing a burgeoning amount of marginal seats without incumbents in 2008. Retaking the House is looking harder and harder with every retirement for the NRCC.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	72	Speculation/Rumors
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CT-04	Shays	R	D+5.4	63	Threatening retirement
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IL-16	Manzullo	R	R+4.5	64	Speculation
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	56	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-01	Davis, JoAnn	R	R+8.9	58	Rumors/Health issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

Not many changes here: Chrissy Shays (R-CT) is in, and despite his vow to run again, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is staying on (you never know when an indictment will drop). It’s well worth mentioning, however, that several of the most recent retirements (Pryce, Pickering, and Ramstad) were genuine surprises and were not found on the previous list of potential retirements. We will very likely be surprised again in the coming days, weeks, and months.

Any other retirement rumors floating through your tubes?

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
CA-03 – R+7,
GA-01 – R+?,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NC-06 – R+17,
OH-05 – R+10,

But 1 goes back to uncontested:
IN-05 – R+20 (Ellis is not running).

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

336 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 103 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 103
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 27
Districts without any candidates – 70

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NC-05 – R+15,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
CA-45 – R+3,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
NC-10 – R+15,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Thats 20 states with a full slate, and 5 states with one race to fill! That is half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 14 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Man, Chuck Schumer has got to be doing back-flips today.  First Mark Warner, and now Jeanne Shaheen:

Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will be a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, the New Hampshire Union Leader has learned. The Democratic former three-term chief executive is expected to issue a statement today addressing her political plans. While it’s unclear exactly how the statement will be phrased, sources say Shaheen has decided to seek the seat held by Republican John E. Sununu, who defeated her in a bitter 2002 contest.

Shaheen, 60, will resign as director of the Harvard University Institute of Politics, a post she has held since April 2005.

It remains to be seen whether Katrina Swett or Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand will drop out of the primary.  Med school professor Jay Buckey will stay in no matter what.

UPDATE: Schumer’s statement, via e-mail:

“Jeanne Shaheen will be a great candidate and a great Senator.  We are excited that someone who represents the best of New Hampshire and American values is our candidate for the Senate.  With Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner announcing their candidacies in the last two days, our efforts to increase our majority in the Senate got a tremendous shot in the arm.”

Race Tracker: NH-Sen