Tag: 2008 Elections

The DSCC just hit the mother lode.

Join him.

From the Virginia Pilot:

Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is widely expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate on Thursday, pledging to bring a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington.

Warner, in around-the-clock meetings and phone calls with political advisers in recent weeks, has been weighing whether to run for the Senate seat being vacated next year by longtime Republican incumbent John Warner, or wait until 2009 and run again for governor.

One strategist who asked not to be identified said Warner has put out word to a few that he has decided on the Senate. Many others said Warner had indicated in conversations with them in recent days that he is leaning heavily toward the Senate.

“I’d be surprised if he didn’t run for the Senate,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist, who said he spoke with Warner on Friday night.

One ally, who spoke with Warner on Monday, said the former governor put his chances of declaring for the Senate at “80-20.”

The news comes hot off the heels of a pair of Rasmussen polls showing Warner leading former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) by a 54%-34% margin, and Rep. Tom Davis (R) by a 57%-30% margin.  While Davis would obviously have a lot more room to grow (given a lower statewide profile than Warner or Gilmore), Warner would begin such a race in a commanding position.

If Warner still harbors Presidential ambitions, I’m not convinced that a Senate term is in his best interests, but it would be in the best interests of the nation.

Oh yeah, and this part of the article made me giggle:

Several Republican strategists said Warner is no shoo-in for the Senate in 2008 and could face a bruising race. They said Warner had the luxury of never having held elected office when he ran for governor.

“This time, he has a record and he’ll be held to it,” said Chris LaCivita, an adviser to Davis, a possible candidate. LaCivita noted that Warner raised taxes as governor despite making repeated campaign promises that he would not.

“The free ride is over,” said Dick Leggitt, an adviser to Gilmore.

Amazing.  It must take quite the marketing guru to “re-educate” Virginians that somehow Mark Warner’s gubernatorial record was bad for Virginia.  As the article notes, Warner left office with a whopping 75% approval rating.  Oh right: one of the guys taking the potshots is the brain behind the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, and the other guy’s boss had an embarrassing four years as Governor.  These guys are utter clowns.

Race Tracker: VA-Sen

(H/T: SSPer MrMacMan)

2008’s Senate races have taken more shape in recent weeks and months, with the entry of some challengers (Merkley, Rice) and the retirement of others (Hagel, Warner, Craig).  But we’re still waiting on plenty of big names and lesser lights to announce their intentions.  Here’s a list of the notable names that we’re waiting to hear from (and yes, some of these names are extremely unlikely to run):

Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D); former AK House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz
Arkansas: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R); 2004 nominee Jim Holt (R); J. French Hill (R); Chuck Banks (R)
Delaware: Rep. Mike Castle (R)
Idaho: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R); state AG Lawrence Wasden (R); former state AG David Leroy (R); state Sen. Michael Jorgensen; state Sen. John McGee (R); former state Sen. Dane Watkins (R)
Iowa: Rep. Steve King (R); Rep. Tom Latham (R)
Louisiana: Treasurer John Kennedy (D R); Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R); Rep. Jim McCrery (R); Woody Jenkins (R); Suzanne Haik Terrell (R)
Kansas: Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D); former Republican State House Speaker Joe Hoagland (D); Steve Boyda (D)
Kentucky: Charlie Owen (D); Andrew Horne (D); Rep. Ben Chandler (D); Bruce Lunsford (D); Larry Forgy (R)
Mississippi: Former state AG Mike Moore (D)
Nebraska: Former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey (D); Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey (D); Scott Kleeb (if Kerrey and Fahey pass); former Gov. and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns (R); former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub (R)
New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey: Anne Evans Estabrook (R); Joseph Pennacchio (R)
New Mexico: Gov. Bill Richardson (D); Rep. Tom Udall (D); state AG Patricia Madrid (D); former US Attorney John Kelly (D)
North Carolina: State Rep. Grier Martin (D); state Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
Oklahoma: State Sen. Kenneth Corn (D)
South Dakota: Gov. Mike Rounds (R); Dusty Johnson (R)
Tennessee : Mike McWherter (D); Bob Tuke (D); Mike Doherty (D); former Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D)
Virginia: Former Gov. Mark Warner (D); former Lt. Gov Don Beyer (D);  former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R); Rep. Tom Davis (R)

The “unconfirmed word”, according to the Nashua Telegraph’s Kevin Landrigan (via Dean Barker), is that former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen is leaving her post as director of the Kennedy School of Government:

“So who has the experience, compassion and strength to beat John Sununu?” [Katrina Swett] asks [in a new mailer].  This comes as unconfirmed word that the Kennedy School of Government is now looking for a new director. If that’s true, it would mean former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is freed up from that nonpartisan role to jump into the Senate race. She will be giving a non-political speech to a women’s group in the state later this month.

The Union Leader’s John DiStaso says that we can expect an announcement from Shaheen in a week and a half, although a spokesman has recently said that the governor has “no sense of time” as to when a final decision will be reached.  Let’s hope that it’s sooner, rather than later.

(H/T: S2G)

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

It seems like Republicans are doing, as Mitch McConnell might say, their “Washington best” to lower expectations for the 2008 Senate elections.  Here is a collection of interesting quotes from Republicans in the know regarding the ’08 Senate races.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:

Republicans are unlikely to win back control of the Senate in 2008, their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, said Friday, gloomily predicting that “holding our own is about all we could hope for.” … “It would take an extraordinarily good day to get back up to 50. So our goal is to stay roughly where we are.” [CNN, 7/20/07]

(Much more below the fold.)

NRSC Chair John Ensign:

“If you scratch the surface, things don’t look necessarily that good,” he said. “But when you get below the surface, things aren’t nearly as bad as what they could be.” [Associated Press, 9/9/07]

and

In a “wide-ranging” interview, Ensign “acknowledged that his party faces a steep, uphill climb in next year’s Senate elections when 21 Republican seats will be up for grabs, compared with 12 for the Democrats.” [Washington Times, 3/26/07]

NRSC Communications Director Rebecca Fisher:

Rebecca Fisher, communications director for the NRSC, acknowledged “the mountain that we’re up against,” but predicted success. [USINFO, 9/10/07]

Anonymous GOP Operative:

“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot,” a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. “I don’t see even the rosiest scenario where we don’t end up losing more seats.” [Washington Post, 9/2/07]

Unnamed Republican Senators:

“Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008.” [Evans-Novak Political Report, 8/29/07]

It is shaping up like Republican leadership expects a four-seat net loss to be the best-case scenario.  I expect we’ll see more commentary from Republicans along these lines as the races further develop.  If you’ve seen any similar quotes already, share them in the comments.

From the Omaha World Herald:

Chuck Hagel will announce Monday that he is retiring from the U.S. Senate and will not run for president next year, people close to the Nebraska Republican said Friday.

Hagel plans to announce that “he will not run for re-election and that he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008,” said one person, who asked not to be named. […]

According to one person interviewed, Hagel told Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky on Friday morning that he had decided to retire. Hagel’s staff learned of his decision that afternoon.

Let the circus begin.  In the Republican corner, we have state Attorney General Jon Bruning, former Gov. Mike Johanns, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, and businessman Tony Raimondo.  For the Democrats, we could have one of the following: former Sen. Bob Kerrey, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb.

Race Tracker Wiki: NE-Sen

In a front-page exposé, the Chicago Tribune today delved into the questionable Latin American investments of Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL): 

In 2002 Weller made his first official congressional trip to Nicaragua. Before the year was over, he had bought his first lot and eventually began looking for land he could subdivide into parcels that would attract buyers looking for prime ocean-view property at a relatively low price. It is an unusual investment for a member of Congress, and Weller's foreign land holdings seem far more extensive than any other House member's.

His investment got a boost from the narrowly passed Central America Free Trade Agreement, which Weller pitched in 2005 as a tool to enable businesses in his hard-pressed district to sell tractors and food to Latin America. CAFTA also includes additional legal protection for American investors, including those who have purchased lots from Weller.

What he didn't say was that, while he publicly pushed CAFTA, Weller privately was pursuing his land development, some 2,000 miles away. The House approved the trade pact in July 2005 by only two votes, 217-215.

Besides not mentioning his Nicaraguan investments during the CAFTA debate on the House floor, Weller did not give anywhere close to a complete accounting of them in his required 2005 financial disclosure statement. House ethics rules require representatives to disclose all property they own except for their personal residences.

Although Weller defeated his opponent last year by a healthy 10 points, the district has a PVI of only R+1.1. And while Kerry lost the district by 7 points, Gore came within 2. Weller's ethical troubles should definitely put this seat in play. 

UPDATE (James): And where is Weller to defend himself from the bullies at the Tribune?  The answer: in hiding.

When asked about the discrepancies, Weller’s office first insisted that questions be given to the congressman in writing. After a week passed with no response to the written questions, The Tribune requested to talk to Weller in person. On Thursday afternoon, Weller’s spokesman said he would not answer questions and had no comment.

The congressman missed all recorded House votes in Washington this week. His spokesman said he was out of the city, caring for his 1-year-old daughter.

Currently, the only prospective candidate against Weller is Jerry Weber, the president of Kankakee Community College.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if other local Democrats might be taking a closer look at this race given these recent developments.

(h/t to the Stakeholder and Prarie State Blue)

According to the Buckeye State Blog, Presidential candidate and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich is set to face a major new primary opponent for his Cleveland-based House seat:

Dean DePiero, Mayor of Parma – Ohio’s seventh largest city with 80,000 residents – is tossing his hat into the Primary carnival to take out Democratic Congressman and presidential wannabe Dennis Kucinich. While BSB followed up on rumors of Dean’s interest back in May, nothing ever came of it. Until now.

Over the weekend I spoke with two reliable sources. One source confirmed that he had spoken with Dean directly, and Dean claimed to be committed to the race. Another source confirmed that throughout the summer (notably August) DePiero had been busy cultivating donors. Also, I’ve heard multiple whispers that a poll may’ve been commissioned already, but I don’t have further info there.

I have no details on kick off, entrance, official word from Dean or any of that. Calls placed to DePiero’s campaign office on Wednesday have gone unreturned. However, I repeat, one of my sources spoke with DePiero directly, and Dean claimed he was in the race.

DePiero, a former state representative and Ohio House Minority Leader, would offer Kucinich his stiffest challenge yet, forcing the candidate to spend less time on the Presidential trail and more time in his own district.  This could have huge implications on the local and national level.

Check out the Buckeye State Blog for more analysis and details.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Back in July, we asked you to rank the top ten Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip control in 2008.  In his most recent ranking, the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza rated 2008’s Senate races as follows (previous rankings in parens):

1. Colorado (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Louisiana (3)
4. Virginia (6)
5. Oregon (7)
6. Maine (4)
7. Minnesota (5)
8. Nebraska (8)
9. South Dakota (9)
10. Alaska (-)

There’s been quite a bit of hot Senate action since we last rated the races, including but not limited to (in rough chronological order):

1. KY-Sen: State Attorney General Greg Stumbo formed an exploratory committee for a run against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
2. AK-Sen: More deterioration and headaches for Ted Stevens.
3. OR-Sen: Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley entered the race against Republican Gordon Smith.
4. OK-Sen: State Senator Andrew Rice entered the race against Republican Jim Inhofe.
5. AL-Sen: State Senator Vivian Figures entered the race against Republican Jeff Sessions.
6. LA-Sen: Raising all kinds of red flags of a potential challenge to Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, Louisiana State Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties.
7. ID-Sen: Larry Craig got caught cruising for a good time in a Minnesota airport men’s room.  His resignation announcement may have been a bit premature, however, as Craig has indicated that he’d like to fight the charges (which he plead guilty to) this month.  If successful, Craig appears likely to serve out the remainder of his Senate term, and then retire.
8. SD-Sen: Tim Johnson announced his return to the U.S. Senate, and of his plans to seek re-election, after months of recovery from a traumatic brain injury last December.
9. VA-Sen: Republican Sen. John Warner hung up his spurs, fueling speculation that Republican Rep. Tom Davis and former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner may announce their intentions to succeed him.

Quite a lot of action.  How will these developments affect your list?  Post your top ten in the comments.

UPDATE: Something has gone screwy with the formatting in the comments section.  We’re attempting to iron out the kinks.  Hang tight.

UPDATE 2: I think we’ve fixed the problem.  If you’re still having trouble reading the comments in the extended entry (specifically, if the comments are bleeding into the very far right of the screen and pushing the right-hand column several inches to the right), do a hard refresh (CTRL and F5 on most browsers) and let us know if you still have problems.

Another month, another tally of how well the top twenty Democratic House challengers are performing on Actblue.com.

State	CD	Candidate	Actblue Total	Contributions	Avg. Donation
MA	5	Niki Tsongas	$195,933	570	$343.74
CO	2	Jared Polis	$162,837	422	$385.87
WA	8	Darcy Burner	$111,018	3,107	$35.73
ME	1	Chellie Pingree	$107,820	273	$394.95
CA	26	Russ Warner	$96,214	348	$276.48
IL	10	Dan Seals	$78,703	250	$314.81
MO	6	Kay Barnes	$75,829	133	$570.14
NY	29	Eric Massa	$74,053	904	$81.92
AZ	3	Bob Lord	$73,715	190	$387.97
TX	10	Dan Grant	$62,080	165	$376.24
NY	26	Jon Powers	$56,062	347	$161.56
CA	4	Charlie Brown	$49,960	1,168	$42.77
FL	8	Mike Smith	$49,925	74	$674.66
NM	1	Martin Heinrich	$46,399	249	$186.34
MD	4	Donna Edwards	$46,001	828	$55.56
NC	8	Larry Kissell	$35,968	362	$99.36
CT	4	Jim Himes	$30,452	203	$150.01
MT	AL	Bill Kennedy	$21,016	80	$262.70
IL	14	John Laesch	$19,136	285	$67.14
IA	4	Selden Spencer	$19,000	126	$150.79

The biggest story of the month, of course, is Darcy Burner’s meteoric rise up the charts to the number 3 slot, after riding a wave of donations from the Burn Bush fundraiser (propelled by blogs such as DailyKos, Eschaton, Open Left, MyDD, SSP and other local and national blogs). The impressive display of netroots muscle prompted her primary challenger, Democratic state Senator Rodney Tom, to exit the race and endorse Burner.

You can compare this update with last month’s tally here.

Update: Following the suggestion of an astute and loyal reader, I’ve added another column for the average contribution. It’s quite clear that, in terms of small donors, Darcy Burner, Charlie Brown, and Donna Edwards are all basking in the warm glow of people power.