Tag: 2008 Elections

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
AZ-06 – R+12,
DE-AL – D+7,
IL-13 – R+5,
IN-05 – R+20,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
TX-31 – R+15,

But 1 is now back to uncontested:
TX-11 – R+25, (our candidate withdrew to take a job in DC).

And 1 moves back to rumoured candidate:
NE-02 – R+9, (I don’t think Esch has committed to running yet)

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

331 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 98 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 98
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 31
Districts without any candidates – 71

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-09,
GA-10,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-05 – R+20,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
OH-05 – R+10,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-45 – R+3,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-11,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
NC-05 – R+15,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – ,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Thats 21 states with a full slate, and 4 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

When Congress gets back to work after its August recess, the first thing lawmakers should do is unite behind a common sense initiative to support our National Guard troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The ‘Patriot Corporations of America Act’ would require corporations to support U.S. troops by paying the difference between regular salary and military salary for all National Guard and Reserve employees who are called up to active duty, and by continuing health insurance coverage for the Guard member and his or her family.

It’s time for America to export our values, not our jobs. This initiative will take an important step toward that goal by rewarding companies that invest in our economy and the middle-class families who drive it.

The act would also:

  * provide tax breaks and preferences in federal contracting to companies that produce at least 90 percent of their goods and services in this country
  * require corporations to invest at least 50 percent of their research and development budgets in domestic projects
  * provide at least 70 percent of the cost of quality health care for their employees
  * contribute at least five percent of payroll to a portable pension fund
  * enforce compliance with federal environmental, workplace safety, and consumer protection regulations.

When Congress returns after Labor Day, passage of this legislation would be a fitting way to mark a fresh start in a new direction for working families and small businesses.

http://www.dangrantf…

From the Politico:

Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow at the University of Virginia whether or not he intends to seek a sixth term, according to two top Virginia sources. Warner is planning a 2 p.m. news conference on the grounds of the Charlottesville, Va., school, where he took his law degree over 50 years ago. The Virginian will give his speech near the statue of Thomas Jefferson on the steps of the school’s famous Rotunda, adding a fitting Warner flourish to the event. 

His office didn’t immediately reply to inquiries about his plans.

Virginia and national political officials have been waiting with anticipation for the Warner decision. His retirement would set off a scramble for the open seat, perhaps pitting former Gov. Mark R. Warner against Rep. Thomas M. Davis or former Gov. Jim Gilmore.

Given John Warner’s recent calls for a minor scaleback of U.S. troop levels in Iraq, the smart money says that a retirement announcement is in store for us tomorrow.  With Tom Davis running for Senate, Democrats would have an excellent shot at picking up his trending-Democratic 11th district House seat (Gore lost this district by 7 points in 2000, but Bush only won it by 1 point four years later).  And while Davis’ base in the DC suburbs would help him against the Democratic nominee, his profile is no match for former Democratic Governor Mark Warner’s.  The only question is: will Mark answer the call?  Or will he bide his time to accept either running mate status on the Presidential ticket, or take another shot at the Governor’s office in 2009–a position that he very enjoyed?

C’mon, Chuck, old buddy, don’t let me down…

UPDATE: Another interesting wrinkle in the story:

A Senate bid by Gilmore in a hotly contested race could be a bruising battle. The ex-governor likely would face strong competition for the Republican nomination from U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Fairfax County moderate who raised about $600,000 in the last quarter.

The state party would have to decide whether to hold a primary election or a convention to decide on a nominee. A convention, which the GOP has traditionally favored in Virginia, would appear to benefit Gilmore because it attracts the party’s hard-core conservative base. By contrast, a primary might give the well-financed Davis an edge.

Davis spokesman Brian McNicoll said of Gilmore, “He’s won two statewide elections. He certainly couldn’t be taken lightly.”

Given how utterly disastrous Gilmore’s term as Governor was, I warmly invite him to seek his party’s nomination.

According to Cliff, the rumor mill has churned out none other than independent Senator Joe Lieberman as a possible Bush nominee to replace disgraced Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez.  However, if you’ve believed all the rumors, Lieberman should have been one or all of the following by now: Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Homeland Security, Ambassador to the United Nations, and George Bush’s running mate in 2004.

But for the sake of exploring every wild-eyed hypothetical, let’s assume that Lieberman answers Bush’s call and gets confirmed by the Senate as the next AG.  At present, Connecticut law states that, in the event of a Senate vacancy, the Governor gets to appoint a replacement.  If Lieberman were to leave, that would put the ball in Republican Gov. Jodi Rell’s court to name his successor.

So, whom might Rell appoint?  The Republican bench isn’t exactly burgeoning with obvious possibilities, seeing as how Rell and her Lieutenant, Michael Fedele, are the state’s only current GOP statewide office holders.  Looking to those with Congressional experience, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson is 72 years old, and appointing current Rep. Chris Shays would almost certainly cause his House seat to fall to the Democrats–an unattractive option for Rell.  If she doesn’t tap someone from the state legislature, there’s always Rob Simmons, who represented a district with a sharply Democratic PVI of D+7.6 from 2000 until his defeat last November.

Of course, Connecticut Democrats, who hold a veto-proof majority in the state legislature, could make this hypothetical moot by quickly ushering in legislation to strip the power to fill Senate vacancies from the Governor.  In such an event, Democrats are not short of potential recruits to bring a bit more sanity to Connecticut’s Senatorial delegation in a special election.  Which one would you like to see nominated?

While rumors have been around for awhile, it looks like Sen. Larry Craig has been busted:

Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) was arrested in June at a Minnesota airport by a plainclothes police officer investigating lewd conduct complaints in a men’s public restroom, according to an arrest report obtained by Roll Call Monday afternoon.

Craig’s arrest occurred just after noon on June 11 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. On Aug. 8, he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct in the Hennepin County District Court. He paid more than $500 in fines and fees, and a 10-day jail sentence was stayed. He also was given one year of probation with the court that began on Aug. 8.

A spokesman for Craig described the incident as a “he said/he said misunderstanding,” and said the office would release a fuller statement later Monday afternoon.

After he was arrested, Craig, who is married, was taken to the Airport Police Operations Center to be interviewed about the lewd conduct incident, according to the police report. At one point during the interview, Craig handed the plainclothes sergeant who arrested him a business card that identified him as a U.S. Senator and said, “What do you think about that?” the report states.

Craig is up for re-election in 2008 and something tells me this isn't gonna play well back home in Idaho.  Whether Craig chooses to resign or stick it out, Democrat Larry LaRocco should be able to make a race of it.

Update: In the event that Craig retires early, a quick check of Idaho statutes shows that the replacement process is fairly standard. Republican governor “Butch” Otter has the full authority to appoint someone who would serve through November 2008. 

Two weeks ago, Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15) announced her plans not to run for re-election. Considering that Pryce defeated Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by a razor-thin margin in 2006 in a district with a PVI of R+1.1, this seat was already going to be competitive in 2008. But as an open-seat, it quickly looked like one of the best prospects for a Dem pickup. 

And now things just keep getting better for our side as it appears that the NRCC is having trouble fielding a candidate in the race:

Northeast Ohio native and former Attorney General Jim Petro has ruled out a run for Congress, setting his sights instead on Ohio's next Supreme Court chief justice.  Party leaders, including House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio, had urged Petro, a moderate Republican who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, to run next year for a seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Deborah Pryce of suburban Columbus.

And shortly afterwards: 

Former Mayor Greg Lashutka said today he will not seek the GOP nomination in 2008 for the 15th Congressional District seat being vacated at the end of next year by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce, an Upper Arlington Republican.  Lashutka ruled out a run about an hour after former Attorney General Jim Petro said he will not seek the congressional seat, leaving local GOP officials scrambling for a candidate against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, the favoried Democrat who narrowly lost to Pryce in 2006.

This comes on the heels of two other recruitment failures for the NRCC as State Sen. Steve Stivers and State Rep. Jim Hughes both turned down a race for the seat.

(h/t Buckeye State Blog)

Republicans in Louisiana are passing the bottle around tonight–they just snagged a fresh, high profile turncoat from the Democratic ranks.  John Kennedy, the State Treasurer of Louisiana since his election in 1999, has bolted to the GOP after heavy recruitment by the likes of Karl Rove and David Vitter:

State Treasurer John Kennedy has switched political parties and will seek re-election to a third term this fall as a Republican, he announced Monday.

Kennedy has been publicly mulling the switch for months, and he has clashed repeatedly with Gov. Kathleen Blanco and the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate over spending and other issues.

In an email message to supporters, Kennedy cited “certain fixed, bedrock principles” that he believes are more in line with the Republican Party than the Democrats, and said GOP officials have been more responsive to his proposals in recent years.

What are those “bedrock principles”?  Kos has the straight dirt from Kennedy’s press release:

I also believe in the power of ideas. Every advancement in art, science, technology, business, cooking and medicine has occurred only after someone challenged the rules and tried another way. My career in public service demonstrates my belief in the power of looking for a better way. For the past several years, it has increasingly been the case that those public servants who have embraced my ideas and my philosophy of trying new approaches are primarily Republicans. I am grateful for their support and their willingness to try something different. (Emphasis added)

Cooking?!  I had no idea that conservative Republicans were responsible for so many culinary breakthroughs.  I hope Kennedy succeeds in his quest to bring Cajun food to a whole new level.

Kennedy, as you may recall, ran as a Democrat in the 2004 Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux, scoring 15% of the vote.  Party loyalty is not exactly a strong suit in a state that produced notable party-switchers such as Rodney Alexander, Billy Tauzin, Walter Boasso, and Ray Nagin, and with the state’s trending-red demographic catastrophe, I suspect that charges of opportunism will be fairly muted.  By crossing the aisle now, Kennedy is setting himself up to run against Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year, to the immense delight of Rove and Vitter.  Landrieu has decent approvals, but this will be the GOP’s #1 target in 2008.  Expect a bloodbath.

More waffling from former Ohio Republican AG Jim Petro on his prospective bid to succeed Deborah Pryce in the House:

Former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro is leaning against a run for the 15th Congressional District seat to be vacated at the end of 2008 by the retirement of incumbent Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce, according to Republican sources.

Petro has been considered the leading GOP candidate for the congressional seat, but sources close to him said it appears Petro will forgo the race and keep open the option of running for Ohio chief justice in 2010.

Petro declined to comment on whether he would pull his name from consideration for Congress. “I have not reached a decision, but will soon,” he told The Dispatch this afternoon.

As Bones would say: dammit, Jim!

According to the Columbus Dispatch, another potential candidate, Republican state Rep. Jim Hughes has put his name out of contention.  But there are other names in the field:

The potential field of GOP candidates to replace Pryce quickly is narrowing. Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes has expressed interest in running. Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka also is gaining traction in some Republican circles. Lashutka, an executive with Nationwide Insurance, has been unavailable for comment on whether he is entertaining a bid for Congress.

Buckeye State Blog has more on Lashutka:

Lashutka’s the former two term mayor of Columbus who didn’t run for re-election in ’99 due to health concerns. He’s also an OSU namesake, having played tight-end for the fabled Woody Hayes in the 60’s. Since he left office, he’s stayed involved in the community, and served a prominent role with nationwide insurance. Republicans know they can still count on Lashutka at fundraising events these days, and he even makes it out to stuff for the Democrats occasionally too. The man has been out of politics through the Bush years, so it’s more difficult to tarnish him with the image of the modern day GOPer.

Lashutka could be a strong nominee, and I don’t expect Republicans to cede this race any time soon.  But with the district’s Democratic trend (Kerry improved upon Gore’s performance by 6% here), the organizational advantages and name recognition built up by Kilroy, and a Presidential race that could tilt Ohio towards the D column, Lashutka or any other Republican candidate would have to show some hustle.

With the retirements of Reps. Hastert (IL-14), Pryce (OH-15), and Pickering (MS-03) last week, the Republican caucus has been bracing itself for more surprises.  Today brings another retirement: embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01).  From Roll Call:

Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) said Thursday in a statement obtained by Roll Call that he will not seek re-election in 2008, ending months of speculation regarding the ethically clouded Congressman’s political future.

“I will not be seeking re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. I am honored and thankful to serve Arizona’s first district and appreciate all that we have accomplished together over the past 6 years.” […]

Renzi staved off a spirited challenge from his Democratic challenger last cycle, but saw his political fortunes plummet following an FBI raid of a business connected to his family as part of a federal probe into his dealings as a Congressman.

Renzi has not admitted to any wrongdoing, but it has become increasingly clear that the investigation would imperil any 2008 re-election bid, and possibly result in him facing multiple GOP primary challengers.

This one is not so surprising.  While Republicans will likely to view this as some necessary bloodletting, Arizona’s 1st will likely be a top tier race next year.  With a PVI of R+2.2, it’s had a Republican lean over the past two Presidential cycles, but not an insurmountable one.  The Democratic field includes State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Mary Kim Titla and attorney Howard Shanker.  It remains to be seen whether or not Arizona Republicans will field a Randy Graf-type here.  In any event, this race will be a barn-burner.

Huge news out of Michigan:

State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer said Thursday he will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after declining earlier overtures to enter the race.

“Tim Walberg is not doing the job,” Schauer told The Associated Press on Thursday. “He is serving a very narrow interest. He’s really been a servant of the Bush-Cheney administration and the extreme special interests in Washington.” […]

Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term as minority leader through 2010, said he will keep being the Democratic leader while running for Congress. He said he changed his mind about running after being approached by both rank-and-file constituents and party leaders.

The push by others for him to join the race “almost became deafening,” Schauer said. […}

Schauer is seen as a strong candidate by Democrats because he is known as a vigorous campaigner and almost all of his state Senate seat is located within the 7th District – giving him a base of support.

Schauer is a big name in Michigan politics, and his state Senate seat is based in Battle Creek, the heart of the 7th district.  Walberg, as you may recall, rode a wave of hard-right support from the Club For Growth to defeat sitting congressman Joe Schwarz in the Republican primary in 2006.  With only token Democratic opposition, Walberg scored a win that November, but snagged just shy of 50% of the vote against Democrat Sharon Renier.

With Schauer, an aggressive campaigner, in the picture, Walberg won’t be nearly so lucky in 2008.  While he faces a primary with former state Senator Jim Berryman, lawyer David Nacht, and Renier, Schauer has to be considered the front-runner.

This race just skyrocketed up the list of potential House Democratic pick-ups in 2008.

You can read Schauer’s full press release over at Michigan Liberal.

UPDATE: In the diaries, Fitzy of  Walberg Watch, has much, much more.