Tag: 2008 Elections

“A public servant with a record of fiscal discipline, Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) today announced he will run for Congress in 2008, pledging to fight outsourcing, help strengthen the economy and resolve the war in Iraq.” It’s official! Days after Joe Knollenberg made the announcement for him, Peters enters the race. It’s no wonder Knollenberg felt the need to attack. Gary has an extensive track record of fighting for progressive issues as a State Senator.

Peters will officially resign from his current position as Michigan’s lottery commissioner on Friday, August 10th. Under Peters, the lottery has come in $13 million under budget while generating record profits. When he was a State Senator, he returned an entire years worth of office expenses back to the state treasury! Gary will bring fiscal responsibility to Congress.

“Knollenberg has allowed the failed Bush agenda to go on while our brave men and women are getting shipped to Iraq and good-paying Michigan jobs are getting outsourced to other countries. -Gary Peters”

Gary gets it. Knollenberg has a terrible record on veteran’s issues, highlighted by the DCCC campaign last July. Peters will fight to protect our soldiers and our jobs. Knollenberg has been a rubber stamp for a failing administration. The choice is clear for 9th district voters.

9th District elected Democrats came out strong in support of Peters. Look at this list of endorsements. Our local leaders are excited to get behind an experienced legislator, who is ready to fight Knollenberg on the campaign trail and represent Oakland County in the People’s House.

The district is ripe for change, and Gary is the candidate to deliver. The Democratic base vote in the 9th district was above 50%. This is a winnable district. Joe Knollenberg is out of touch with 9th district voters on issues such as stem cell research, protecting the middle class, the importance of Social Security, and helping to make college education affordable. Gary Peters will continue his fight for progressive interests?Joe Knollenberg protects Washington special interests.  Let’s send a Lieutenant Commander to Congress to fight for us.

www.PetersForCongress.com

Learn more about Gary at his website, signup to receive email updates, and contribute at ActBlue!

$226,409.87

That’s how much the National Republican Congressional Committee spent in the fall of 2006 to protect Republican incumbent Mark Souder in a district that delivered only 31% of its vote to John Kerry in the last Presidential election.  (The DCCC saved its money for other races.)

In that race, Souder faced off with a Fort Wayne city councilman, Tom Hayhurst, who only had to raise $690K to outspend the incumbent’s war chest of $642K.  Souder eventually went on to win that election, but by a much smaller margin than any Republican has any business winning in the 33rd most Republican congressional district in the nation: 54%-46%.

Souder, who seems set in his sluggish fundraising ways, has found himself with yet another quick-moving Democratic challenger: Michael Montagano.  Montagano, a young (26!) lawyer, outraised Souder by a $106K to $84K margin in the second quarter.  That showing has already inspired comparisons between Souder and another lethargic Republican Indiana of yore: John Hostettler (formerly of the 8th District).  According to Roll Call (subscription required), DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen met with Montagano recently and came away impressed:

Souder’s 3rd district is heavily Republican – it gave President Bush 68 percent of its 2004 presidential vote – but even Republicans privately concede that Souder, who came to Congress in the Republican wave of 1994, had too close of a call last year.

[…]

Democrats think Souder could be 2008’s Hostettler.

“Chairman Van Hollen came away impressed from his meeting with Michael Montagano yesterday and believes this seat could be a potential sleeper race in 2008,” DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said Friday.

With a PVI of R+16.3, Montagano would be serving the fourth-most Republican district in the nation with Democratic representation if elected.  The top three Democrats in that class?  Chet Edwards of Texas, Jim Matheson of Utah, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi.  In other words, if Montagano is to have a shot in a Presidential year, even against a luckluster incumbent, he’s gonna need some mad political skills.  But if Montagano, like Hayhurst before him, could force the NRCC to drop some precious cash to shore up an incumbent in crimson red territory, that will be a victory in and of itself.

I had a whirlwind trip through Chicago for Yearly Kos this past weekend, and it was great to be with people who care about changing our nation's direction — and are willing to work hard to make that happen. I met some truly impressive people from all parts of the country — local and national bloggers, activists, former Clinton administration advisors, motivated citizens — and all of them are rolling their sleeves up for positive change.

One of the sessions I attended was of particular interest to me and other residents of the Texas 10th. It examined the prospects for Democrats in winning Republican-controlled House seats. Stan Greenberg, who ran polling for Bill Clinton, pointed out that Democrats have a solid lead over their Republican opponents, even in traditional GOP-held seats. Furthermore, this trend is likely to become more pronounced over the next year. This confirmed what I've discovered when talking to people in my district, Republicans and Democrats alike: the Bush White House has lost the public trust, and the lockstep support of its agenda by Congressional Republicans is getting us nowhere. People want change, not more of the same.

One of the highlights was the gathering of all the candidates at the Netroots Candidates Celebration on Friday evening. There were at least 20 of us, most of whom are running for US Congress. And seeing their enthusiasm, sincerity, and talents made me proud to be in their company:

http://www.dailykos….

A shot of the candidates that attended the event:

http://illinoisdemne…

It also turns out that bloggers I met at Yearly Kos have remarked on the race for the Texas 10th. Matthew Yglesias of the Atlantic Monthly wrote about it:

http://matthewyglesi…

I am already looking forward to next year's gathering. I'll bet there will be 50 candidates there in the summer of 2008, all of whom will have their Republican opponents quaking. America wants a fresh start, and the people I met in Chicago are just like the ones I meet here in Texas: they're ready to make it happen.

http://www.dangrantf…

Well 7 more districts now have candidates:
CA-52,
GA-09,
MI-09,
OK-05,
TX-26,
VA-11,
WI-05,

But 3 are now back to uncontested:
CA-46, (Brandt is running for the CA Assembly).
FL-21 (Our candidate has quit the party to run as an independent!)
TX-14 (our candidate has switched parties and is running for the GOP!)

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD, Daily Kos and Open Left)

321 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 83 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 87
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 29
Districts without any candidates – 83

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01,
AL-03,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-40,
CA-41,
CA-42,
CA-44,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-10,
FL-13,
FL-15,
FL-24,
GA-09,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MI-09,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-23,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
OK-05,
PA-03,
PA-15,
PA-16,
PA-18,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-26,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
VA-11,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WV-02,
WI-01,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
IL-16,
IL-19,
SC-04,

3) The following 29 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-11,
KY-05,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-03,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,

4) And last but not least the following 83 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-21,
FL-25,
GA-10,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-18,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-14,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Thats 18 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in CA-42, TX-11, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

In the Senatorial elections of 1984, Senator Walter “Dee” Huddleston of Kentucky was the only incumbent Democrat to lose a Senate seat that year, despite the thrashing that Ronald Reagan delivered to Walter Mondale across the nation.  The upstart politician who upset Huddleston, Jefferson County Judge/Executive Mitch McConnell, employed a series of wildly successful TV ads featuring a group of bloodhounds trying to find the supposedly non-attendant incumbent Senator in Washington.

Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo, himself waging an exploratory campaign against Senate Minority Leader McConnell this year, had the good sense to show up with a pair of bloodhounds at the annual Fancy Farm Picnic in the state this weekend.  “Hunting For A Real U.S. Senator”, indeed.  McConnell himself was at the can't-miss event, of course, supporting embattled and corrupt Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in his 2007 re-election campaign.  Just another reminder of the hopelessly out-of-touch Senatorial representation that Kentuckians continue to suffer with.

What goes around comes around?

UPDATE: DitchMitchKY’s Matt Gunterman gives his report from the event:

Third, and this was Shawn’s observation at Fancy Farm and I’m highlighting because I think it was a good one: anti-war Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul had an impressive organization at Fancy Farm. In fact, the campaign to “Support Our Troops / End the War” was extremely popular at the event. I was amazed to see 60 year old men and women asking 25 year old activists for every pro-end-of-war sticker and sign they could provide. It truly was an amazing sight. I’ve been at Fancy Farms since 1992, and I’ve never witnessed such a motivated and activist crowd. That’s one of the biggest stories to come out of Fancy Farm this year, quite frankly: even in rural Kentucky, the movement to end Bush’s endless and futile war is gaining in momentum. Senator Mitch McConnell was visibly shaken in his speech by the response.

(H/T: kilowat for the photo)

According to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, David Nachbar, one of the contenders for the Democratic nomination to take on “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl next year, has withdrawn his candidacy this week.  Nachbar cites workplace demands as the reason for folding his bid, but perhaps he also found that he underestimated the depth and breadth of support for rematch candidate Eric Massa within the 29th district.  For instance, it seems like not a day goes by where Massa's campaign doesn't put out another press release announcing the endorsement of a county or township Democratic committee (see the latest one here).

While Massa got off to a solid start, outraising Kuhl significantly in the second quarter ($158K to $68K) and reporting a higher cash-on-hand total, Nachbar had some deep pockets of his own that he was willing to tap into.  Coupled with New York's September primary, a contested nomination would have been a serious resource drain for the eventual nominee.  New York's 29th will not be one of the easier targets for Democrats in 2008, but Nachbar's termination could help ensure that Massa will make a decent second shot at it.

(H/T: DailyKos diarist ipsos) 

I enjoyed compiling the figures for this diary so much last month, that I’ve decided to turn our tracking of the twenty hottest House challengers on ActBlue.com into a monthly series.

Here’s the August installment:

State	CD	Candidate	Actblue Total	Contributions
CO	2	Jared Polis	$137,304	321
MA	5	Niki Tsongas	$136,852	406
MA	5	Jamie Eldridge	$113,154	694
ME	1	Chellie Pingree	$103,785	247
CA	26	Russ Warner	$74,840	232
IL	10	Dan Seals	$71,073	234
MO	6	Kay Barnes	$69,949	102
NY	29	Eric Massa	$64,507	755
AZ	3	Bob Lord	$59,440	163
TX	10	Dan Grant	$58,220	145
NY	26	Jon Powers	$54,117	288
FL	8	Mike Smith	$49,825	73
CA	4	Charlie Brown	$46,485	990
NM	1	Martin Heinrich	$42,744	205
MD	4	Donna Edwards	$36,828	612
NC	8	Larry Kissell	$32,282	308
CT	4	Jim Himes	$27,759	76
IL	4	Ricardo Muñoz	$25,590	67
IA	4	Selden Spencer	$18,855	123
MT	AL	Bill Kennedy	$17,866	71

Certainly an exciting group of challengers. One guy I’ll be keeping my eye on his rematch candidate Selden Spencer, who raised under $500K in is 2006 challenge to Republican Rep. Tom Latham, which he lost by a 57-43 margin. Let’s see what he can do with an earlier start. (In the second quarter, he raised $88K.)

PS: Anyone wanna help put Charlie Brown over the top to 1000 contributions?

On Monday, the Run Andrew Run draft blog informed us that Oklahoma Democratic state Senator Andrew Rice was very likely to challenge crumb-bum extraordinaire Jim Inhofe in the state's 2008 U.S. Senate election:

After a few weeks on the road in Oklahoma and a whirlwind of meetings in Washington, D.C., it now seems likely State Senator Andrew Rice will soon be filing papers to challenge U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe in the 2008 election.

Since winning election to the State Senate from a diverse, inner-OKC district, Rice has already proven to be a skilled consensus builder who gets results. He offers a stark contrast to the right-wing curmudgeon, Jim Inhofe.

Rice still says he will make a formal announcement after Labor Day but fundraising prospects have surpassed his expectations and sources close to him say he may be “all in” within the next 10 days. He has received encouragement on this site and in meetings throughout the state. We also hear the DSCC now views Rice as a potential upset challenger in the style of a Jim Webb or a Jon Tester.

Rice lost a brother in the World Trade Center on 9/11 and believes that Bush and Inhofe took their eye off the ball by waging war in Iraq while Al Quaeda rebuilt its global terror network. Inhofe, who once called global warming a “hoax,” boasts of being “one of the last true conservatives left in the Senate”.

Earlier today, DailyKos diarist gypsy shared with us a letter that Rice is apparently distributing to his friends and supporters:

Andrew Rice for U.S. Senate
P.O. Box 1027
Oklahoma City, OK  73102
                                                       August 2, 2007
Dear Friends,

While I have deliberated during these past few months, I have also encouraged other, more widely-known Democrats to take up the challenge.  To date, none has done so.  I have also thoroughly discussed the pros and cons of running with my wife Apple and my family.

Today, I want you to know that I have decided to run and that I intend to win!

I want you to be assured that I will not have to vacate my State Senate seat in order to run and I will continue to make myself accessible and accountable to my constituents in Senate District 46.

I believe Oklahomans deserve a choice for U.S. Senate in 2008.

Washington is paralyzed by partisan bickering, and Jim Inhofe may be one of the most partisan Senators of all.  He even boasts of being the “most conservative” Senator.  In contrast, as a member in the evenly divided Oklahoma Senate, I have proven that I can work with both Republicans and Democrats to get results for our state.

Divisive politics is harming our country.  That’s not my style.  I have already met many Oklahomans from across the state.  They tell me that Washington no longer listens to them.

This will be a tough and expensive race.  In fact, I will need to raise several million dollars just to compete against Inhofe and the National Republicans who will stop at nothing to help him extend his 40-year career in elective politics. […]

Despite having a very lackluster approval rating for a senior senator in his third term (the last time that SUSA polled this race in November, he was at a 46% approval), more prominent names in Oklahoma’s Democratic cycles (and there are a few, including Gov. Brad Henry and four-term Attorney General Drew Edmondson) have not jumped at the chance to challenge Inhofe.  Perhaps the hesitancy stems from watching former Democratic Rep. Brad Carson’s surprisingly wide loss (42%-53%) in the 2004 open seat race against Tom Coburn–a candidate who nicely complements Inhofe’s nuttiness in the Senate.

There’s no doubt that Rice, a young progressive with a compelling biography, will face a tough climb in the state, especially in a Presidential year when Duncan Hunter carries the state by a 30-point margin (kidding).  Still, Inhofe is older, he has a tendency to say stupid shit, and the dynamic of a fresh face versus a doddery loon could be fun to watch, given a reasonable amount of funding in Rice’s campaign coffers.

With Jeff Merkley in Oregon and now Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, 2008’s Senate races are beginning to take more shape as we approach the fall.

On the web: Andrew Rice for Oklahoma (I’m assuming that this will be updated once Rice makes his official announcement)

According to Roll Call (subscription required), the NRCC is getting giddy over the candidacy of state Senator Nick Jordan against 5th-term Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore:

House Republicans, long stymied by Rep. Dennis Moore (D) in Kansas’ GOP-leaning 3rd district, think they might have recruited the perfect candidate — state Sen. Nick Jordan (R) — to flip the seat back to the GOP.

In Washington, D.C., last week to participate in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate school, Jordan is described as having the support of both the moderate and conservative wings of the GOP in the Jayhawk State’s 3rd district.

If true, this could prove crucial for a Jordan victory. That’s because Moore first won the suburban eastern Kansas district in 1998 — and has held it since — largely because Republicans have failed to unify behind their nominee in each of the past five elections.

“Both moderates and conservatives are pushing [Jordan] to run,” said a knowledgeable Republican operative based in Kansas. “This is the guy we’ve been waiting for.”

Jordan said in a brief interview late last week that he is “very likely” to run for Congress in 2008 and that he probably would announce his intentions sometime in August. […]

Republicans in D.C. and Kansas claim that Jordan’s position on social issues and his record on economic matters appeal jointly to the conservative and moderate wings of 3rd district Republicans. The two factions have warred with each other in the 3rd district at least since 1998 when Moore defeated Vince Snowbarger (R) for the seat — a split that reflects an intraparty rift plaguing the Kansas GOP statewide since the early 1990s.

Jordan is socially conservative, opposing both abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research — which makes the conservatives happy. But he also has a lengthy record of championing business and economic development projects — and this makes the moderates happy.

It’s hard to blame Republicans for trying at an R+4.2 seat in a Presidential year, but I’m having a hard time seeing Moore as a particularly vulnerable incumbent, especially after looking at his steadily improving electoral track record:

Year	Moore (%)	Republican (%)
1998	52	48
2000	50	47
2002	50	47
2004	55	43
2006	64	34

With a Presidential year bringing the base to the polls (we assume) and a more credible challenger than novice Chuck Ahner, who Moore beat by 30 points last year, Republicans may be able to hold the incumbent to a level more similar to his 2004 result than his 2006 blow out. Nick Smith may be a good recruit for Tom Cole’s NRCC (assuming he makes his bid final), but he strikes me as three or four cycles too late to catch Moore in a particularly vulnerable position.

Confirming weeks of speculation, Iraq War vet Eric Egland announced today that he will challenge corrupt Rep. John Doolitte in the 2008 Republican primary.  Doolittle’s campaign team, however, is maintaining a “more the merrier” attitude:

Egland is the first to flatly declare for the Republican primary. Auburn City Councilman Mike Holmes also is exploring a primary run for Doolittle’s seat, and he said Monday he is moving closer to entering the race.

Doolittle’s campaign consultant, Richard Temple, said the congressman is not worried, and welcomed the competition.

“In this case, the more candidates the better,” said Temple. He said that because the congressman has a strong base of support, multiple opponents will only divide the disenchanted.

“Neither of them can beat him,” Temple said.

Temple makes a strong point, and 4th district Republicans interested in retaining this seat in the red column would be best served to confine Doolittle to a head-to-head match up.  (Holmes, as you may recall, collected less than 33% in the 2006 primary after spending just over $90,000 on the race.)  Conversely, Blue Majority candidate Charlie Brown’s best shot is if a badly wounded Doolittle crawls out of a three or four-way primary with a barely active pulse… assuming that he hasn’t resigned in disgrace by that point.