Tag: 2008 Elections

According to the Buckeye State Blog (which has really been on fire with its House coverage this week), former Republican Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro has agreed to run to succeed retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce in the 15th Congressional District.  Petro, as you may recall, was an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2006, where he lost to then-Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell by a 56-44% margin.

Quick on their feet, the Ohio Democratic Party released the following press release slamming a Petro candidacy:

News accounts report that Congresswoman Deborah Pryce will announce that she will not run for Congress in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District. So, which Jim Petro will run for Congress?

Is it the Jim Petro who was under FBI Investigation?

Is it the Jim Petro who ignored the Securities and Exchange Commission’s warnings that Ohio Worker’s Compensation investors were being ripped off and let the Noe CoinGate scandal occur right under his nose?

Is it the Jim Petro that the Ohio Civil Rights Commission found violated his staff’s civil rights by not promoting and hiring them based on race?

Is it the Jim Petro who was the Cuyahoga County Commissioner? Note: It is more than a 2 hour drive from Cuyahoga County to central Ohio where the 15th is located.

Is it the Jim Petro who lurched to the right to combat Ken Blackwell in the Republican Primary for Governor?

Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy will have plenty of juicy targets to choose from in a campaign against Petro.  However, the nickel’s worth of free advice that the Swing State Project gave to Kilroy last month still rings true: a strong message of change in Iraq should not be left off the table.

Shocking news from the Columbus Dispatch:

Rep. Deborah Pryce of Upper Arlington has told some of her fellow Republicans she is strongly considering not seeking re-election next year, The Dispatch has learned.

Pryce, 56, who has been a fixture in the U.S. House since her election in 1992, could make an announcement soon about her plans. Republican sources say if she does not run, former Ohio Attorney General James Petro might seek the seat.

Other GOP sources also mention state Sen. Steve Stivers, R-Upper Arlington, an Iraq veteran, as a strong possibility if Pryce drops out.

A senior Republican who spoke only on condition of not being identified said Pryce has concluded it is far too difficult to raise her adopted daughter Mia in Columbus while simultaneously maintaining a five-day schedule in Washington.

“I don’t think anybody can talk her out of it,” the top Republican said.

Pryce could not immediately be reached for comment.

But according to the Buckeye State Blog, Franklin County Republicans are having a difficult time finding a top-tier replacement for Pryce:

The story gets better too. Doug Priese, Chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party, got word of the retirement yesterday from the Congresswoman’s office. In a span of 24 hours the GOP has already had it’s top two potential challengers declare they wouldn’t touch OH-15 with a stick.

The GOP’s dream challenger to replace Pryce is State Senator Jim Stivers. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Stivers turned the Franklin County Republican Party down on the spot yesterday when approached with an offer to run. Since Stivers is up for re-election in the Senate, and approaching an opportunity to serve as Senate President, he views a run for Congress to risky in a district clearly trending Democrat.

Additionally, I’ve heard the GOP approached former Gubernatorial candidate and Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro to jump into the race. However, like Stivers, Petro officially turned the party down for fear of the district and fundraising concerns in a hostile climate.

If true, this is absolutely huge news.  With 2006 candidate and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy in the race, Democrats would be well-poised to snag this Democratic-trending seat.  At a PVI of R+1.1, this district split its vote 50-50 for Bush and Kerry in 2004, after Bush carried this district by a comfortable eight points in 2000.

If Pryce bails, perhaps the dam will break and similar incumbents facing pressure to keep their seats by the NRCC will take the retirement plunge.

UPDATE: The Hill cites GOP sources claiming that Pryce’s retirement is a done deal:

Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) will announce Thursday that she will not run for reelection in 2008, according to sources close to the congresswoman’s office.

Pryce’s office announced it will hold a press conference in her Columbus office on Thursday at 11 a.m. concerning her plans for 2008.

The timing of Pryce’s impending retirement comes largely as a surprise. A former leader of the GOP’s ousted majority, she is in her eighth term but is only 56 years old – much younger than many of the prospective Republican retirees.

Oh, I can’t wait for more surprises.  Some call this the dog days of summer.  I call it Christmas time for House retirement watchers.

UPDATE 2: The Dispatch confirms.  Debby Pryce is out.

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Blog, Paul Hackett, an Iraq Vet and former Democratic candidate in the 2005 special election for Ohio’s 2nd district, is set to re-enter the political fray today with a characteristically bold splash: flipping the (metaphorical) bird to Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich by endorsing his primary challenger, Rosemary Palmer:

Iraq war veteran and short-time U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hackett tomorrow will announce his support for Rosemary Palmer, who’s trying to move Dennis Kucinich out of Congress.

Palmer, running for the 10th Congressional District nomination, has a tough challenge, but if Hackett were to truly get involved, he might draw some attention for Palmer.

Palmer’s 23-year-old son, Lance Cpl. Edward “Augie” Schroeder II, was killed in Iraq two years ago. A former teacher, Palmer says that Kucinich seems too preoccupied with his quest to become president to represent the district well. […]

Hackett’s involvement in Palmer’s race “adds instant credibility,” says Anthony Fossaceca, Palmer’s campaign manager. It tells voters that she’s serious and that, like Hackett, she’s willing to go against the grain, he says.

“And it means a lot more now coming from Paul,” Fossaceca says, “who doesn’t do many of these.”

Say what you will about Hackett, but he’s never too coy to rock the boat.  Kucinich has not had any problems dispatching primary challengers as of late, but this edition is set to make a bit more noise than what Special K has been used to dealing with.

The list of House Republicans who may retire in 2008 is an expansive one, indeed.  One name that I've heard a substantial amount of buzz surrounding is Rep. Dave Hobson of Ohio's 7th.  Unverified rumors claim that he will likely retire, but one local blogger is already calling it a done deal:

Ohio 7th District Congressman Dave Hobson will not seek re-election to a 10th term in the U.S. Congress.

The much expected retirement of Cong. Hobson has not been formally announced even though State Senator Steve Austria (Hobson’s hand picked successor) is already preparing for a Congressional campaign and at least two Repuiblicans are lining up for Austria’s Ohio State Senate seat.

With a PVI of R+6, Ohio’s 7th has a pronounced Republican lean.  It twice supported Bush by a 14-point margin (56-42 and 57-43, respectively), but much has changed since 2004 in national and state politics since 2004.  I expect a good number of lean-Republican seats to come open in 2008 (Hastert in IL-14, LaHood in IL-18, and Regula in OH-16 for instance).  If Van Hollen can deliver some solid recruits, I suspect that we may be able to pick up a couple.

(H/T: Buckeye State Blog)

According to CQ Politics, former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert will announce his retirement plans on Friday.

After less than a year as a rank-and-file House member, former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert is expected to call an end to a political career that made him the longest serving Republican Speaker in the history of the House of Representatives.

Several Illinois newspapers, including the Aurora Beacon News and the Chicago Tribune, reported Tuesday that the Illinois Republican has scheduled a Friday announcement on the steps of the Kendall County Courthouse in Yorkville, Ill. While Hastert aides are refusing to discuss what he plans to say, he is expected to announce that he will not run for a 12th term in 2008, according to Republican sources.

The only question that remains is: will Hastert resign this year, or will he serve out the balance of his final term?

Greg Giroux, writing for CQ, takes a look at the district’s numbers and, erm, finds that Republicans are favored to retain this Republican-leaning seat (boldly stated, CQ): 

The expected retirement of former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert from Illinois’ 14th District will serve as a test of Republican strength in predominantly suburban and exurban districts that have long been GOP bailiwicks.

On paper at least, Republicans will be favored to retain the 14th, which includes exurbs west of Chicago and rural communities farther west. President Bush took 55 percent of the vote in the district in 2004, and Hastert won re-election to an 11th term last fall with 59.8 percent of the vote. Still, that was his lowest vote share since he first captured the seat in 1986 with 52 percent of the vote.

The other nugget out of all this from Illinois’ other retiring Representative, Ray Lahood:

LaHood, who recently announced his own plan to retire, said he believed there would be additional retirement announcements from within the House GOP. “I retired because it was the right time to leave. Others will also be leaving, for their own reasons,” he said.

Let the games begin.

(Hat-tip to TheUnknown285.)

Speculation over the fate of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert has oscillated between rampant retirement rumors and some suggestions that Hastert is actually enjoying his new gig as a backbencher (perhaps he grew tired of being the poster boy for President Bush’s failed policies in the House).  According to the Beacon News, Hastert will announce his re-election plans one way or the other on Friday:

Former Speaker of the House Rep. Dennis Hastert is expected to reveal Friday whether he will run for re-election.

A speech has been announced for 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hastert’s home town of Yorkville at the old Kendall County Courthouse, Hastert staffers confirmed Monday. Staffers were tightlipped about whether the former teacher and wrestling coach who climbed to the pinnacle of Congressional political power would seek a 12th term.

While Democrats have had not exactly flocked to challenge Hastert in elections past, a small swarm of candidates has emerged to make a run at the seat, including physicist Bill Foster, attorney Jotham Stein, and 2006 candidate John Laesch.  Another potential candidate, state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, has formed an exploratory committee in anticipation of a Hastert retirement. State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, who earlier considered a run, has bowed out of the race.  (H/T: TXObserver in the comments.)

With a PVI of R+4.8, Hastert’s district certainly leans Republican, but Illinois Democrats have scored wins in territory as red or redder.  Melissa Bean toppled long-time incumbent Phil Crane in 2004 despite George W. Bush carrying her district by 12 points.  In total, there are 25 Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives who represent districts with a PVI more favorable to Republicans than Illinois’ 14th.

Stay tuned.  (H/T: Atrios.)

Rep. Richard Baker, a Republican representing the Baton Rouge-based 6th District of Louisiana, has decided not to challenge Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu next year.  From PoliticsLA: 

Baker says he has been taking meetings with party leaders to discuss the idea, and has left the possibility open in press interviews. But now he reveals that he is happy in the House, where a Democratic majority has managed to put only small dent in his seniority – he originally took the lead on Louisiana's housing woes in the wake of Katrina and brokered a deal on a water-resources bill last month that had been stalled in Congress for seven years. “The Republicans, state and federal, see the Landrieu race as a competitive one and, at the moment, I'm not so sure there's a candidate out there,” Baker says. “But I can tell you it is nothing I intend to take on.

Not too surprising, given Baker's sluggish fundraising this year.  The full court press by national Republicans returns to “Democratic” State Treasurer John Kennedy, who, as you may recall, ran to succeed retiring Sen. John Breaux in 2004 and earned only 15% of the vote.  I hope he doesn't run, because you could just imagine all those gleeful Republican talking heads squealing in delight about how they managed to get someone named “John Kennedy” to abandon the Democratic Party.

UPDATE: John Kennedy also announced today that he will seek re-election for his State Treasurer post this fall.  However, I do not see how such a move could prevent him from starting up a Senate campaign after November, and I have not seen any statements ruling that possibility out as of yet.

(From the diaries with light editing for formatting. A Mark Schauer candidacy would immediately make this race into a knock-down, top tier contest. Schauer has a solid base in the heart of the district and a strong resume as Minority Leader in the State Senate. I hope he tosses his hat into the ring. – promoted by James L.)

State Senator Mark Schauer, a Battle Creek Democrat, was mentioned quite a bit last fall and early this year as a potential candidate for Congress in the 7th District. He's been a fantastic party leader in the legislature, supporting the netroots and working to solve the Michigan budget crisis. His name was even tossed around by supporters of Joe Schwarz in 2006 as a reason not to vote for Tim Walberg, suggesting that Walberg in 2006 would inevitably lead to a Schauer victory in 2008.

Schauer and his staff quashed most speculation this spring, promising to stay on as leader of the Democratic caucus in the Senate until the end of his term in 2010. Most observers– including journalist Jack Lessenberry— thought he would have been a formidable candidate, but Schauer seemed determined to sit this election out.

But all of that might be changing.

For those that don't recall, Michigan's 7th District is currently represented by far-right wing Congressman Tim Walberg. Walberg is one of those conservatives who opposes little things, like taxes and the separation of church and state. He defeated the well-respected moderate Congressman Joe Schwarz (a Republican also from Battle Creek) in a very nasty primary funded mostly by the Club for Growth.

But back to Mark Schauer.  Starting last night, I started hearing rumors that Schauer might be reconsidering his previous decision. Then the subscription-only MIRS News service reported that Schauer would contact Jim Berryman and David Nacht sometime today to let them know whether or not he would “seriously consider” running in 2008. Then the AP picked it up:

    LANSING, Mich. (AP) — State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, may challenge U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after brushing off earlier overtures to enter the race.

    Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term through 2010, said Wednesday he is discussing a bid for Congress with family, colleagues and constituents before making a “final decision.”

    “I would bring the same commonsense, results-oriented approach to this role as I have to my entire career in public service,” Schauer, 45, said in a statement.

    Schauer said it had become “painfully clear that Tim Walberg cares more about what's best for Republican leadership in Washington than what's best for Michigan's 7th district. […]

    Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Battle Creek, said Wednesday he spoke to Schauer earlier in the day and the state senator told him “he was looking at” the congressional race. Schwarz said Schauer did not indicate when he would make a final decision.

    Schwarz, who was defeated by Walberg in last year's Republican primary, said he had not made a decision on whether he would re-seek his old congressional seat.

    Schwarz, a physician, is chairing a task force on health care needs in southeast Michigan and said he would not announce any plans on the congressional race until his task force releases a report in September.

The plot thickens further with Michigan Liberal's lpackard's discovery that the domain schauerforcongress.com has been registered.

I've been following this all day today with e-mails and phone calls to a bunch of different people, and this is what I've got: Schauer has not announced whether or not he'll run, and likely hasn't made a final decision. As is suggested by the article above, we're now in a period where he may be watching to see what kind of support he may have. “Testing the waters,” as it were.

In other words, if you want Mark Schauer to run for Congress, now would be the time to let him know about it.

Adapted from a post at Walberg Watch. (Thanks to Michigan Liberal.)

UPDATE: Apparently, MIRS is reporting that a DCCC poll conducted showed Schauer leading Walberg by three percent, and by eight percent when positives and negatives of each are read.

(Discuss. – promoted by James L.)

Most of the news in the Swing State Project is based around specific races and candidates, but I'd like to get a more general look at the Congressional races. More to the point, I'm trying to look into your expectations, what are you expecting in the 2008 elections? And what would you consider to be a huge win or a huge loss?

So, here are my expectations:

Senate Races

Expecting: (Dems pick up 2-3 seats)

Reason: The environment in the senate already gives the Democrats a huge advantage (only defending 12 compared to the Republicans' 22), in addition the national mood favors the Democrats pretty well overall. The individual races give me a bit more pause, the Democrats have a good advantage in two senate races already (Colorado and New Hampshire) with strong prospects in at least three other states (Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon). Having said that, the Democrats are in trouble in Louisiana, and in a presidential year, I'm having a hard time seeing Mary Landrieu surviving the race in Louisiana if the governors race doesn't turn around. Additionally, the Democrats might have another competitive seat in South Dakota, depending on the condition of Tim Johnson and whether or not Rounds decides to challenge him. The two assumes the Democrats win in both Colorado and New Hampshire and picks up one of the three states with high prospects and Mary Landrieu loses her seat, the three assumes the previous conditions with Landrieu keeping her seat.

Big Win: Dems win 5+ seats

Reason: In addition to the seats mentioned on top, there is still the potential for more competitive seats coming from North Carolina, New Mexico, Virginia, Alaska, and Kentucky. My minimum of five seats assumes a clean sweep of all the competitive seats, assuming how some of these states go, it could end up being a landslide, picking up 6-8 seats in the senate. Keep in mind that I think winning 8 seats is only technically possible, and I'd probably have a heart attack from shock if that happened.

Big Defeat: Dems lose 0-2 seats

Reason: The flip side of the coin has to be the possibility of some Democratic seats being compeitive. I've already covered Louisiana and South Dakota, so I'll also bring into the equation the possibilties of competitive races in Iowa and Arkansas. Huckabee could still challenge Pryor and the possibility is still there that he could lose. The zero assumes either no incumbent party lost seats or the Dems either picked up New Hampshire or Colorado but lost Louisiana, the 2 assumes the Democrats don't win anything and lose in Louisiana and in either Arkansas or South Dakota. Again, keep in mind this is another of the shock scenarios, the chances of this happening are about the same as the chances of the Dems winning 8 or more seats.

I've got to get ready for work, so I'll post what I think for the House a little later. And if you disagree with me, please, I want to know what you think.

Update:

Alright, I’m going to give my outlook for the House, now keep in mind that I’ve actually been concentrating a bit harder on the Senate than the House, so I’m only going to give what I think the general mood is, you House watchers, if you think I’m wrong, please speak up and correct me:

House

Expecting: Dems break even or pick up 1-2 seats

Reason: Ok, the overall national mood still favors the Democrats, and while the Senate is definitely a huge opportunity for the Dems, the House is a very different story. With the purging of a lot of Republicans from blue districts in the Northeast (Connecticut, New Hampshire, and New York) and the fact it’s a presidential year, I don’t really see the Democrats making a repeat of 2006. The Democrats are going to have to defend a bunch of newly acquired seats such as TX-22 and FL-16. The Dems do have the ability to knock off a few more Republicans though, (NM-1 [Heather the Feather] and CT-4, for example). While the DCCC does have a money advantage over the NRCC, it’s not as dramatic as the one between the DSCC and the NRSC.

Big Win: Democrats pick up 6+ seats

Reason: Keeping in mind all everything I’ve mentioned before, the overall mood does favor the Democrats, and with more retirements likely to be on the way from Republicans, the Democrats have the potential to make a few more competitive races in swing districts. Additionally, if the Republicans pick someone like Rudy Giuliani, who would likely hurt conservative turnout in Republican districts, that might be enough to give the Democrats an edge in a few more areas.

Big Loss: Republicans pick up 4+ seats.

Reason: Look, I want it to be perfectly clear, the Republicans won’t pick up the House next year, they just don’t have the resources, will, or stability to do it. Having said that, there are definitely circumstances where the Republicans can pick up a few seats, as I mentioned before, TX-22 and FL-16 are probably going to be difficult to hold on to, not to mention KS-3 and NH-2 (was it 1 or 2 that was the suprise pick up in House?). Additionally, the congressional seat won by John Hall might be in trouble if Ari Fleschier decides to run against him. There are still other districts with really big problems like in Arizona, Georgia, and a few other House seats, but you should keep in mind this is the “nightmare” scenario, one to be prepared for, but not paranoid about either.

The race to fill Republican Butch Otter’s open seat in Idaho’s first district was one of my favorite stories to write about last year.  In what is now a campfire legend, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali rode a wave of bad press for his asinine antics and bad reputation in the Idaho state legislature to a spectacularly dismal 49-46 victory over Democrat Larry Grant last November.  (And when Bush carries your district with 68% of the vote, no self-respecting Republican candidate has any business performing that badly.)

However, aside from being the handmaiden of his campaign benefactors, the economic regressives at the Club For Growth, Sali has kept a mostly low profile in the House this year.  So one might expect that Sali’s high negatives have softened over the past eight months, right?  Well, maybe not, if you believe the latest polling. 

Via The Hill and New West comes news of a new poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showing Sali with some serious baggage (“voters”, July 11-13):

Bill Sali (R-inc.)
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 46
No Opinion: 13
Unaware: 12
MoE: ±5.3%

Just dismal.  And how does Larry Grant fare, the rematch candidate who commissioned the poll?

Larry Grant (D)
Favorable: 28
Unfavorable: 13
No Opinion: 29
Unaware: 30
MoE: ±5.3%

So, despite losing a close race and feeling the full fury of the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Club For Growth (who spent $483,000 and $441,000 smearing Grant’s name, respectively, in the closing weeks of the campaign), Grant walks away with only a 13% disapproval rating, while 59% of the district’s voters either do not recognize his name or have no opinion of him either way.  Losing a House race, it would seem, does not earn one a great deal of meaningful name recognition.

While Sali has not shaken off his negatives, it is difficult not to mention that this district had little problem re-electing the late Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth despite her own psychedelically nutty reputation.  It seems that Sali still has yet to endear himself in the same way, though.

PS: You might remember the Boise-based Smith & Associates firm as the curators of a startling poll last fall showing Sali’s support evaporating while the rest of his Republican colleagues were in solid shape.