2008 Elections – Page 6 – Swing State Project

More Oregon Political News: Dems Surge Ahead and More!

I had not planned to publish another Oregon political news roundup but a few stories in today’s news cry out for me to make them known to the blogosphere. They are:

1. Matt Wingard’s troubles deepen-The State Legislative candidate’s (R) child abuse issues may be worse than previously thought.

2. Oregon Dems blast the bailout.

3. Oregon Dems surge in registration in OR-5.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Matt Wingard’s Troubles Deepen:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/a_political_ad_notes_wilsonvil.html.

As reported yesterday, the Oregon D’s have launched an ad critical of State Rep. candidate (and interim incumbent) Matt Wingard (R-Wilsonville) regarding his 2002 conviction for misdemeanor assault for attacking his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver. However, the story does not end there. According to filings made over custody of the child in 2004 (Wingard and the child’s mother never married), the child’s mother claims that this incident was “part of a history of abusive behavior by Wingard, including slapping that left bruises.” This begs the question of how the Republicans can really claim to be family first if they can’t even pick a candidate who takes care of their own family.

Oregon Dems Blast the Bailout:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/defazio_urges_congress_to_go_s.html

Led by longtime OR Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR4), Oregon Democrats stood up against Henry Paulson’s $700B bailout plan in unison. As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said, “Unless we address the underlying faults in the system that brought us to this financial abyss in the first place, we may simply be building the world’s largest bridge to nowhere.” By contrast, Gordon Smith couldn’t seem to make up his mind, stating that “We’re looking at a bad option and potentially worse options.” This is perhaps further proof of how out of touch Gordon Smith is, not surprising given his substantial wealth and strong record as a Bush clone. Still, I am proud to say that Oregon Democrats stand united against this giveaway.

Oregon Dems Surge in Registration in OR-5

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/democratic_registration_surges.html

Oregon’s fifth congressional district has never been considered safe for the Democrats. Since first taking office, retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) had never won with even as much as 60% of the vote and always faced a registration disadvantage. Well, that is no longer true as the Democrats now hold an edge of about 20k in the district, which combined with the myriad problems of Republican candidate Mike Erickson, should give Schrader a relatively easy win.

Let me know what you think.

IA-04: Analysis of Latham’s first television ad (updated)

cross-posted at Bleeding Heartland

If you were a loyal Republican foot-soldier seeking re-election in a state that’s trending Democratic, where the Democratic presidential candidate has a commanding lead over your party’s nominee as well as a much bigger ground game in your own Congressional district, you might want to reinvent yourself.

Late last week, Tom Latham did just that in his first television commercial of this election cycle. You can view the ad at Latham’s campaign website. It focuses on a bill Latham introduced to address the nursing shortage in Iowa.

Judging from the content of this ad, Latham recognizes that 2008 will be a big Democratic year in Iowa.

Neither the commercial nor the campaign’s accompanying press release mention that Latham is a Republican. Instead, they note that he authored “bipartisan legislation” in a specific area.

Polls typically give Democrats an edge on handling health care and education. Even someone watching this ad with the sound turned down can see that Latham is portraying himself as sensitive to these issues. Here are the words that flash on the screen during the commercial:

Nursing Shortage (footage of ambulance with siren, nurse alongside patient on stretcher)

Iowa Faces Severe Nursing Shortage (hospital scenes)

Bipartisan Legislation (Latham sitting and writing)

Help Nurses Repay Education Loans (nurse with patients)

Tom Latham (as he talks with one of the nurses quoted in the ad)

In addition, Latham’s ad features three testimonials from nurses. One of them is “nurse practitioner Linda Upmeyer,” wearing a white nurse’s coat with a stethoscope around her neck, who says, “Tom has done a wonderful job of hearing the need and translating that into legislation.” Conveniently, the ad fails to identify Upmeyer as the Republican state representative from Iowa House district 12.

The press release announcing Latham’s television ad is even more blatant about running away from the Republican label. It describes Latham as “bipartisan” twice and notes that he “teamed up with Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to introduce this bill in the United States Congress.”

I never thought I’d see the day when the conservative Republican Latham would brag about working with Baldwin, who is openly gay and has one of the most progressive voting records in Congress. Latham’s voting record as a whole could hardly be more different from Baldwin’s.

Not only does Latham’s ad avoid mentioning his party affiliation, it seems designed to address the gender gap by having a female voice-over and three women nurses do almost all of the talking. The only male voice you hear is Latham’s at the very end, saying “I’m Tom Latham, and I approved this message.”

Democratic candidates tend to do better among women, and the disparity may be even greater this year in IA-04. Becky Greenwald is giving Iowans the chance to send a woman to Congress for the first time.

One clever feature of this ad is that it implies Latham has delivered for Iowa’s nurses, without mentioning whether the bill he authored has any chance of becoming law. The wording of the press release suggests that the bill has not advanced:

Latham teamed up with Iowa nursing and health care professionals through numerous roundtables around the state to listen to their unique perspective and input on what was needed. He then wrote legislation and teamed up with Wisconsin Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to introduce the bill in the United States Congress.

You would think that someone who spent 14 years in Congress (12 of them as part of a Republican majority) would be able to point to some concrete achievement on behalf of nurses or in the area of health care.

Instead, the Latham campaign talks about his “trusted leadership” on the nursing shortage, when he has nothing to show for this “leadership” other than writing one bill that went nowhere.

By the way, Latham signaled last week that he is not willing to defend the totality of his record in a public forum. He declined an invitation from KCCI-TV and the Des Moines Register to debate Greenwald during prime-time television. Latham also refused invitations to debate in August.

In a debate, Latham might have to explain why he talks about helping nurses repay their student loans in his commercial, when he voted for enormous cuts to federal student loan programs in 2005 and 2006.

As a challenger, Greenwald has lower name recognition than Latham, and understandably used her first television ad to introduce herself to voters. With Latham avoiding debates and using skillful image construction to conceal his ineffectiveness, I believe Greenwald will need to run some television ads that spell out why she is seeking to replace “Iowa’s low-yield Congressman.”

UPDATE: The Greenwald campaign responded to this ad with a statement exposing Latham’s real record on health care.

Oregon Political News Roundup: Gordon Smith the Elitist and More!

Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups. Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:

1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.

2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.

3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.

4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Gordon Smith the Elitist:

According to Roll Call’s list of the 50 Richest Members of Congress, Oregon’s own Gordon Smith comes in at #10, with an estimated worth of $28.65M.

Yet that is not the end of the story, to quote Roll Call:

If you take financial disclosure forms seriously (never a good idea), you might be led to believe that Smith’s net worth tripled last year. His 2006 financial disclosure form disclosed net assets of about $8.5 million.

But Smith’s worth is largely derived from Smith Food Sales, a purveyor of frozen vegetables. In 2006 he listed that asset as being worth $5 million to $25 million. In 2007, the value has jumped to the next category, $25 million to $50 million, so even if the value of the asset rose from just under to just more than $25 million, the effect on the disclosure form is to add $20 million to Smith’s minimum net worth. Since Smith doesn’t have to report the assets of the corporation, his actual net worth may be far above what is reported on the Congressional form.

Add to that the recent news that Gordon Smith’s house is worth more than the rest of the OR delegation combined ($3.5M) and that he is the only member of the delegation to not actually live in DC, and one wonders who Gordon Smith really thinks he’s fooling when he says he is not elitist.

Source for the houses info: Congressional Cribs (OR).

One Expensive Movie Ticket

Source: Smith fundraiser turns into pricey movie ticket

Gordon Smith had long planned to hold a fundraiser with the Governator Ahnold (R-CA) and had secured gifts of $1k per person to see the Governator speak. However, due to the budget crisis in CA, the Governator did not come, instead speaking via satellite link to the event. There is now some word that he will come up later for Gordon Smith, but this still begs the question of how deep Smith must be reaching if he needs to rely basically solely on a former action star to fundraise.

Wingard gets hit on child abuse conviction:

Source: Democratic ad hits Wingard on assault

A few months back, it was reported that Matt Wingard had been convicted several years back for misdemeanor assault after hitting his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver. At the time, the OR Repubs tried to get Wingard, who is running for the state house from Wilsonville, a slightly red seat but certainly winnable, to drop out but were unsuccessful. Now the Democrats have released a mailer attacking Wingard for his conviction, an attack that Democratic candidate Jessica Adamson stands behind, stating “This is a community of Saturday morning football games and family dinners and game nights. I don’t believe that Mr. Wingard’s actions reflect the community that I know.” It remains to be seen what impact this will have but I have to say I like the strategy.

Oregon Democrats Continue Voter Registration Rise:

In just released voter registration figures covering registration through the end of August (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf) it was revealed that once again the Democrats have increased their lead in the state. Statewide, there are now 894k Democrats and 677k Republicans, with the rest of Oregon’s slightly more than 2M registered voters independents or third party members. For comparison, in 2006, there were 763k Democrats and 701k Republicans. Although the increase has certainly been seen most in heavily Democratic areas, such as Multnomah County, Democrats now hold a voter registration edge, or are within a couple thousand at worst, in more than two thirds of the state’s legislative districts.

Let me know what you think.

Don’t forget about our good statehouse candidates

In July I wrote about five reasons to get involved in state legislative races. My reasoning was:

1. The 2010 census looms, to be followed by redrawing Congressional districts in most states.

2. Many policy matters are determined at the state level.

3. Getting progressive Democrats elected to state legislatures will build our bench for future House, Senate or gubernatorial races.

4. You probably can find a competitive statehouse race near you, no matter where you live.

5. Your individual actions are more likely to make a difference in a statehouse race.

In addition to donating directly to good state legislators and legislative candidates in Iowa, I give to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports statehouse candidates across the country.

I was pleased to learn on Friday that the DLCC is accepting nominations for candidates to be included in its “40 essential races” program.

More below the fold.

Dear [firstname]:

It is no easy task to pinpoint a handful of essential candidates among the thousands of competitive legislative races this year, but that is exactly is what we at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee intend to do over the next three weeks.

Using the information and resources we’ve gathered so far this cycle, we will identify 40 candidates in top races all across the country who need help in this election. For our part, we will provide these candidates with strategic support and promote their races among our partners and allies.

We also know that there are plenty of strong Democrats throughout the country with the potential to win important districts whose races are just emerging — so we are asking for your help to find them.

While we reveal the list of our targets, we will also accept nominations for an additional 10 candidates to go on our essential races list. Please submit a name:

http://www.dlcc.org/action/200…

And while you’re on our site, will you also take a minute to make a contribution of $25 or more?

Every dollar that you give will go directly into taking the fight to the Republicans who want to control our state houses. With your help, we will elect leaders who won’t let the GOP pass their radical policy agendas or redraw districts to create a permanent conservative majority. Can you support us today?

http://www.dlcc.org/action/con…

The DLCC is committed to electing Democratic majorities all across the country, but in order to win in competitive states, we need support from friends like you.

Thank you for all that you do,

Michael Sargeant

Executive Director

Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

I asked someone at the DLCC whether these “essential races” will mostly feature challengers or incumbents. I was told that most of the targeted races involve Democratic challengers trying to take Republican-held seats. However, some will be incumbents, and some will be challengers trying to hold Democratic seats.

I encourage progressives to get informed about the key races in your state, then go to the DLCC site and nominate the candidate of your choice for this program.

For example, strong Democratic challengers seeking Republican-held seats in Iowa include Jerry Sullivan in Iowa House district 59 and Swati Dandekar in Senate district 18 (both seats are open because of Republican retirements).

A good candidate trying to hold the open Iowa House district 29 is Nate Willems, a former regional director for Howard Dean and occasional contributor to MyDD.

Incumbents being targeted this year in Iowa include Eric Palmer in House district 75, Elesha Gayman in House district 84, and Tom Rielly in Senate district 38.

Please let the good candidates in your state or region know about the DLCC program.

You can also set up your own ActBlue page to raise money for your favorite candidates, whether or not they are named an “essential race” by the DLCC. Century of the Common Iowan blogger noneed4thneed created this page to support Tim Hoy in House district 44, Sharon Steckman in House district 13, Gayman, Palmer, and Sullivan.

Vox Populi provides information about three good Indiana House candidates on this ActBlue page.

Remember, even if your state is not competitive in the presidential campaign and your representatives in Congress are safe incumbents, you can probably find a swing statehouse district not far from where you live.

We can’t afford to neglect those down-ticket races. Donate, volunteer, and spread the word.

California Race Chart (Part 3 of 3: House/State Legislature Races B)

Here is Part 3, the last part of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Southern California, and summarize which races we need to win.

Here is Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Here is Part 2, which covered the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly races in Northern and Central California: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….

Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.

U.S. HOUSE (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)

CA-22 (Bakersfield): McCarthy (R) – unopposed

CA-23 (Southern Central Coast): Capps (D)

CA-24 (Inner Santa Barbara/Ventura): Gallegly (R)

CA-25 (Palmdale, Big Empty): McKeon (R)

CA-27 (Western San Fernando Valley): Sherman (D)

CA-28 (Eastern San Fernando Valley): Berman (D) – unopposed

CA-29 (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena): Schiff (D)

CA-30 (Malibu, Beverly Hills): Waxman (D) – only faces a write-in candidate

CA-31 (Hollywood): Becerra (D) – unopposed

CA-32 (Covina, Baldwin Park): Solis (D) – unopposed

CA-33 (Culver City): Watson (D)

CA-34 (Downtown L.A.): Roybal-Allard (D)

CA-35 (South Central): Waters (D)

CA-36 (Beach Cities): Harman (D)

CA-37 (South Central, Long Beach): Richardson (D) – opposed only by minor party candidates

CA-38 (Southeastern L.A. suburbs): Napolitano (D) – opposed only by a Libertarian

CA-39 (Southeastern L.A. County): Linda Sánchez (D)

CA-40 (Northern Orange County): Royce (R)

CA-43 (Ontario, San Bernardino): Baca (D)

CA-47 (Anaheim, Santa Ana): Loretta Sanchez (D)

CA-48 (Central Orange County, including Irvine): Campbell (R)

CA-49 (Temecula, Oceanside): Issa (R)

CA-51 (Imperial County, southern SD suburbs): Filner (D)

CA-53 (San Diego): Davis (D)

Races to watch:

CA-26 (Northeastern L.A. suburbs): David Dreier (R) vs. Russ Warner (D), Ted Brown (L)

Registration: R+7.73%

Profile: This is my home turf, in the northeastern L.A. suburbs. It was drawn to be red, but has been purpling recently, with a Cook PVI of only R+4. Warner is a tough challenger, though he’s at a huge cash disadvantage, 40:1 last I checked.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Likely Dreier

CA-41 (Most of San Bernardino County): Jerry Lewis (R) vs. Tim Prince (D)

Registration: R+11.96%

Profile: While it’s unlikely this district will flip, it will be interesting to see how Prince’s challenges on Lewis’s dealings with earmarks will go. I noticed this district now has a 3-star rating on DC Political Report, meaning this race will be mildly entertaining.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Lewis

CA-42 (Chino, Brea): Gary Miller (R) vs. Edwin Chau (D)

Registration: R+18.28%

Profile: Here is another solidly Republican district with a Republican incumbent that could get into hot water over corruption, in this case steering funds toward an OC tollway ( http://downwithtyranny.blogspo… ), and this race has a 3-star rating on DC Political also.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Miller

CA-44 (Riverside, Corona, San Clemente): Ken Calvert (R) vs. Bill Hedrick (D)

Registration: R+10.89%

Profile: I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, but here we go again: strong GOP district, GOP incumbent possibly in trouble over earmarks ( http://www.politickerca.com/al… ). Hedrick’s only real problem is money.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Calvert

CA-45 (Most of Riverside County): Mary Bono Mack (R) vs. Julie Bornstein (D)

Registration: R+5.80%

Profile: While Bono Mack has seen this challenge coming, significantly outraising Bornstein, we still have a shot here from increased Latino turnout in the Coachella Valley and the highly contested AD-80 race, since that district partially overlaps this one.

9/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Bono Mack

CA-46 (Costa Mesa, Palos Verdes, Avalon): Dana Rohrabacher (R) vs. Debbie Cook (D), Ernst Gasteiger (L), Tom Lash (G)

Registration: R+13.65%

Profile: Here we are in yet another strongly Republican district, only here we have a strong Democratic challenger in Huntington Beach mayor Debbie Cook. Some pundits are finally getting around to looking at this race, with Charlie Cook now rating it “Likely Republican” ( http://www.dailykos.com/story/… ), ( http://www.politickerca.com/al… ) and DC Political giving it a 4-star rating, meaning there is going to be considerable entertainment in this race. Here are a couple of totally awesome interviews with Mayor Cook, at Open Left ( http://openleft.com/showDiary…. ) and TPM ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v… ).

09/19/2008 Outlook: Likely Rohrabacher

CA-50 (Northern San Diego suburbs): Brian Bilbray (R) vs. Nick Leibham (D), Wayne Dunlap (L)

Registration: R+11.23%

Profile: Here’s the old seat of the corrupt Uncle Duke, now held by his protégé Bilbray. The DCCC has targeted this race ( http://www.dccc.org/page/conte… ), and Leibham has been visible. If he can strongly articulate an agenda, then we will have ourselves a race here.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Likely Bilbray

CA-52 (Eastern San Diego suburbs): Duncan D. Hunter (R) vs. Mike Lumpkin (D), Michael Benoit (L) – vacated by Duncan Hunter (R)

Registration: R+13.39%

Profile: Lumpkin is a great challenger from what I heard ( http://www.calitics.com/showDi… ), though we still have a battle on our hands, since most voters that pulled the lever for Hunter in the primary thought they were voting for his retiring father and Lumpkin will need more cash here.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Hunter

STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)

Safe:

SD-17 (High Desert): George Runner (R)

SD-21 (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena): Carol Liu (D) – vacated by Jack Scott (D)

SD-23 (West Side L.A., Oxnard): Fran Pavley (D) – vacated by Sheila Kuehl (D)

SD-25 (South Central, Palos Verdes): Roderick Wright (D) – vacated by Edward Vincent (D)

SD-27 (Long Beach, Avalon): Alan Lowenthal (D)

SD-29 (Eastern L.A. suburbs): Bob Huff (R) – vacated by Bob Margett (R)

SD-31 (Inland Empire, Riverside): Robert Dutton (R)

SD-33 (Most of inland Orange County): Mimi Walters (R) – vacated by Dick Ackerman (R)

SD-35 (Coastal Orange County): Tom Harman (R)

SD-37 (Most of Riverside County): John Benoit (R) – vacated by Jim Battin (R)

SD-39 (San Diego): Christine Kehoe (D)

District to watch:

SD-19 (Southern Central Coast, western L.A. suburbs): Tony Strickland (R) vs. Hannah-Beth Jackson (D) – vacated by Tom McClintock (R)

Registration: R+1.96%

Profile: Here is McClintock’s district, which we have a very good chance of picking up, with Ventura County recently obtaining a Democratic advantage in registration and with Jackson maintaining high visibility throughout the district ( http://tinyurl.com/6ehde6 ).

09/19/2008 Outlook: Toss-up

STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)

Safe:

AD-35 (Santa Barbara, Oxnard): Pedro Nava (D)

AD-38 (Santa Clarita): Cameron Smyth (R)

AD-39 (San Fernando): Felipe Fuentes (D)

AD-40 (San Fernando Valley, including Van Nuys): Bob Blumenfield (D) – vacated by Lloyd Levine (D)

AD-41 (Oxnard, Malibu, Santa Monica): Julia Brownley (D)

AD-42 (Beverly Hills, West Hollywood): Michael Feuer (D)

AD-43 (Burbank, Glendale): Paul Krekorian (D)

AD-44 (Pasadena): Anthony Portantino (D)

AD-45 (East L.A.): Kevin de León (D)

AD-46 (East L.A., Huntington Park): John Pérez (D) – vacated by Fabian Núñez (D)

AD-47 (Culver City): Karen Bass (D)

AD-48 (Part of South Central L.A.): Mike Davis (D)

AD-49 (Inner Northeastern suburbs of L.A.): Mike Eng (D)

AD-50 (Bellflower): Hector De La Torre (D) – unopposed

AD-51 (Inglewood, Hawthorne): Curren Price (D)

AD-52 (Compton): Isadore Hall (D) – vacated by Mervyn Dymally (D)

AD-53 (Beach Cities): Ted Lieu (D)

AD-54 (Palos Verdes, Long Beach, Avalon): Bonnie Lowenthal (D) – vacated by Betty Karnette (D)

AD-55 (Carson, Long Beach): Warren Furutani (D)

AD-56 (Norwalk, Buena Park): Tony Mendoza (D)

AD-57 (Covina, Baldwin Park): Ed Hernandez (D)

AD-58 (Inner Eastern suburbs of L.A.): Charles Calderon (D)

AD-59 (Parts of L.A. and San Bernardino Counties): Anthony Adams (R)

AD-60 (Western Inland Empire): Curt Hagman (R) – vacated by Bob Huff (R)

AD-61 (Pomona, Ontario): Norma Torres (D) – vacated by Nell Soto (D)

AD-62 (San Bernardino, Fontana): Wilmer Carter (D) – unopposed

AD-63 (Northern and Eastern Inland Empire): Bill Emmerson (R)

AD-64 (Riverside, Palm Desert): Brian Nestande (R) – unopposed – vacated by John Benoit (R)

AD-65 (Yucca Valley, Big Bear): Paul Cook (R)

AD-66 (Temecula, Riverside): Kevin Jeffries (R)

AD-67 (Huntington Beach): Jim Silva (R)

AD-68 (Garden Grove, Costa Mesa): Van Tran (R)

AD-69 (Anaheim, Santa Ana): Jose Solorio (D)

AD-70 (Central Orange County): Chuck DeVore (R)

AD-71 (Corona, part of inland Orange County): Jeff Miller (R) – unopposed – vacated by Todd Spitzer (R)

AD-72 (Inland Northern Orange County): Michael Duvall (R)

AD-73 (San Clemente, Oceanside): Diane Harkey (R) – vacated by Mimi Walters (R)

AD-74 (Coastal Northern San Diego suburbs): Martin Garrick (R)

AD-75 (Inner Northern San Diego suburbs): Nathan Fletcher (R) – vacated by George Plescia (R)

AD-76 (Northern San Diego City): Lori Saldaña (D)

AD-77 (Most of inland San Diego County): Joel Anderson (R)

AD-79 (Southern San Diego City, Imperial Beach): Mary Salas (D)

Districts to watch:

AD-36 (Lancaster, Palmdale): Steve Knight (R) vs. Linda Jones (D) – vacated by Sharon Runner (R)

Registration: R+2.85%

Profile: While this is not a likely pickup, Jones may make this a race due to the shrinking Republican registration advantage.

9/19/2008 Outlook: Lean Knight

AD-37 (Most of Ventura, small part of L.A.): Audra Strickland (R) vs. Ferial Masry (D)

Registration: R+7.25%

Profile: This district partly overlaps SD-19 and in fact Audra Strickland is Tony Strickland’s wife (and they aren’t related to the governor of Ohio). If Hannah-Beth Jackson does well here, her GOTV efforts could spill over into this race.

9/19/2008 Outlook: Strong Strickland

AD-78 (Inner eastern suburbs of San Diego): John McCann (R) vs. Martin Block (D) – vacated by Shirley Horton (R)

Registration: D+10.48%

Profile: Block has the advantage in this race thanks to the D’s advantage in party registration.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Lean Block

AD-80 (Imperial County, eastern Riverside County): Gary Jeandron (R) vs. Manuel Perez (D) – vacated by Bonnie Garcia (R)

Registration: D+11.22%

Profile: Perez is doing very well here, and a recent poll gave him a double-digit lead. Hopefully his good performance here will spill over into CA-45, which partly overlaps this district.

09/19/2008 Outlook: Lean Perez

That’s it for all the California races. Now I will cover what we need to zero in on to win this fall, and also include how we should vote.

Ballot measures

High Priority

#1: Prop 1A: YES YES YES YES YES!!!!!

#2: Prop 6: NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!

#3: Prop 4: NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!

#4: Prop 8: NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!

#5: Prop 7: No

#6: Prop 10: No

Medium Priority

#7: Prop 2: Yes

#8: Prop 5: Undecided

#9: Prop 11: Leaning No

#10: Prop 9: No

Low Priority

#11: Prop 3: Yes

#12: Prop 12: Yes

Our priorities in the House

#1: CA-04

#2: CA-46

#3: CA-26

#4: CA-45

#5: CA-50

#6: CA-52

#7: CA-44

#8: CA-42

#9: CA-41

Our priorities in the Assembly

#1: AD-15

#2: AD-80

#3: AD-78

#4: AD-10

#5: AD-26

#6: AD-36

#7: AD-37

#8: AD-30

To summarize, if we keep CA-11 and win CA-04, we will have 35 Democrats and 18 Republicans in our House delegation. If we win SD-19, we will have 26 Democrats and 14 Republicans. If we win all the toss-up/Dem-leaning Assembly races, we will have 53 Democrats and 27 Republicans, just one short of 2/3. We’d need at least one of the 36th or 37th districts to get us there.

KY-01: Whitfield Trucking- A New Business Plan

Here at Whitfield Trucking, business was getting slow. We couldn’t understand why so many Kentuckians who were suffering with high gas prices would object so much to us driving an empty tractor-trailer around the First Congressional District of Kentucky. Do they not own hundreds of thousands of dollars in Exxon and Chevron stock like we do? Why would they object to us getting rich off their pain?

Well, to figure out how to turn our business fortunes around, our CEO Exxon Ed Whitfield decided to meet with the wisest business mind he knew:

He told us we should not be driving an empty tractor-trailer around. He said that we simply must start delivering for the citizens of this district.

Luckily for us, he pointed out that Whitfield Trucking HAS delivered much more than our empty tractor-trailer would suggest. We hadn’t realized it, but our little company has delivered plenty. We have delivered a myriad of failed policies, lovingly rubber-stamped for President Bush that has

made us rich while our district has fallen further behind and our economy has crashed into the ditch. Just look at what all we have delivered in our once empty tractor-trailer. First we delivered for President Bush, and the Credit Card Companies:

Voted YES on Bankruptcy Overhaul requiring partial debt repayment.

Vote to pass a bill that would make it easier for courts to change debtors from Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which allows most debts to be dismissed, to Chapter 13, which requires a repayment plan.

Reference: Bill sponsored by Gekas, R-PA; Bill HR 333 ; vote number 2001-25 on Mar 1, 2001

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered the Bush Administration Energy Policy written by Dick Cheney, and the Energy Companies, which has led to record prices for our fellow Americans:

Voted YES on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy.

Vote to pass a bill that would put into practice a comprehensive national policy for energy conservation, research and development. The bill would authorize o $25.7 billion tax break over a 10-year period. The tax breaks would include $11.9 billion to promote oil and gas production, $2.5 billion for “clean coal” programs, $2.2 billion in incentives for alternative motor vehicles, and $1.8 billion for the electric power industry and other businesses. A natural gas pipeline from Alaska would be authorized an $18 billion loan guarantee. It would add to the requirement that gasoline sold in the United States contain a specified volume of ethanol. Makers of the gasoline additive MTBE would be protected from liability. They would be required though to cease production of the additive by 2015. Reliability standards would be imposed for electricity transmissions networks, through this bill. The bill would also ease the restrictions on utility ownership and mergers.

Reference: Energy Policy Act of 2004; Bill HR 4503 ; vote number 2004-241 on Jun 15, 2004

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered for the People’s Republic of Communist China:

Voted NO on deterring foreign arms transfers to China.

To authorize measures to deter arms transfers by foreign countries to the People’s Republic of China, A YES vote would grant the President the ability to place sanctions on any individual or country that violates the arms embargo, including:

Denial of participation in cooperative research and development

Prohibition of ownership and control of any business registered as a manufacturer or exporter of defense articles or services

Removal of all licenses relative to dual-use goods or technology

Prohibition of participation of any foreign military sales

Reference: East Asia Security Act; Bill HR 3100 ; vote number 2005-374 on Jul 14, 2005

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered for the beloved lobbyists that fund our campaigns:

Voted NO on requiring lobbyist disclosure of bundled donations.

Amends the Lobbying Disclosure Act of 1995 to require a registered lobbyist who bundles contributions totaling over $5,000 to one covered recipient in one quarter to:

file a quarterly report with Congress; and

notify the recipient.

“Covered recipient” includes federal candidates, political party committees, or leadership PACs [but not regular PACs].

Reference: Honest Leadership and Open Government Act; Bill H R 2316 ; vote number 2007-423 on May 24, 2007

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

Then, we delivered for President Bush, our hero in helping him to shred the worthless piece of paper known as the Constitution:

Voted NO on requiring FISA warrants for wiretaps in US, but not abroad.

Reference: RESTORE Act; Bill H.R.3773 ; vote number 08-HR3773 on Mar 14, 2008

Voted NO on Veto override: Congressional oversight of CIA interrogations.

Bill Veto override on H.R. 2082 ; vote number 08-HR2082 on Mar 11, 2008

Voted YES on allowing electronic surveillance without a warrant.

Reference: Update the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978; Bill H.R.5825 ; vote number 2006-502 on Sep 28, 2006

Voted YES on continuing intelligence gathering without civil oversight.

Reference: Intelligence Authorization Act; Bill HR 5020 resolution H RES 774 ; vote number 2006-108 on Apr 26, 2006

http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

As you can see, our tractor-trailer is far from empty. It is filled with all the wonderful offerings of a failed President, rubber-stamped by a failed Congressman. We are hoping to keep this work going, so Congressman Whitfield’s failed staff can continue making over twice the median income of working families in this district working for him. It is the least we can do for the voters of this district, quite literally. Please support Exxon Ed Whitfield and keep the dream of Whitfield Trucking alive, so we can continue to get rich.

Please support Heather Ryan in Kentucky’s First, and close the doors on Whitfield Trucking for good!!:

Anyone donating $30 or more recieves a free Ryan for Congress T-Shirt!!

California Race Chart (Part 2 of 3: House/State Legislature Races A)

Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the races for the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly seats in Northern and Central California. Part 3 tomorrow will cover the races in Southern California.

Here is the link to Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….

Incumbents are in boldface. In the case of open seats, the party of the retiring incumbent is listed first without boldface.

U.S. HOUSE (Composition: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans)

Safe:

CA-01 (North Coast): Thompson (D)

CA-02 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Herger (R)

CA-03 (Sacramento suburbs): Lungren (R)

CA-05 (Sacramento): Matsui (D)

CA-06 (Northern SF Bay): Woolsey (D)

CA-07 (Northeast SF Bay): George Miller (D)

CA-08 (San Francisco): Pelosi (D)

CA-09 (Berkeley, Oakland): Lee (D)

CA-10 (Inner East SF Bay): Tauscher (D)

CA-12 (Lower SF Peninsula): Speier (D)

CA-13 (Southern East Bay): Stark (D)

CA-14 (Silicon Valley): Eshoo (D)

CA-15 (Santa Clara, Cupertino): Honda (D)

CA-16 (San Jose): Lofgren (D)

CA-17 (Northern Central Coast): Farr (D)

CA-18 (Upper Central Valley): Cardoza (D) – unopposed

CA-19 (Yosemite, part of Fresno): Radanovich (R) – unopposed

CA-20 (Fresno, part of Bakersfield): Costa (D)

CA-21 (Tulare): Nunes (R)

Now for the races to watch:

CA-04 (Northeast, including Tahoe): Tom McClintock (R) vs. Charlie Brown (D), Paul Netto (L) – vacated by John Doolittle (R)

Registration: R+16.00%

Profile: As a lot of people already know by now, there is a high-profile battle going on here to replace the disgraced John Do-Little (R). Fighting Democrat Charlie Brown came within a few percentage points of knocking off Do-Little in 2006 and is back again, this time facing carpetbagger Tom McClintock, whose State Senate district is 400 miles away from the 4th. In such a strongly Republican district, especially in a Presidential year, one would normally give the Republican a leg up, but Charlie has been doing fantastically, maintaining a huge cash advantage over McClintock, and polls have shown him competitive.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

CA-11 (San Joaquin County and parts of East Bay): Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Dean Andal (R)

Registration: R+2.41%

Profile: This was a pickup for us in the House in 2006, and the GOP hoped to make it one of their highest priorities, pinning their hopes on Andal. Well, now it looks like those hopes have fizzled. Andal is now in hot water over negotiations for a new San Joaquin Delta College campus ( http://www.capitolweekly.net/a… ), and the claims are coming from ~~evil liberals~~ registered Republican and former Andal supporter Ted Simas, a SJDC board member. The NRCC has also pulled funding from the district, meaning that we can breathe a little easier here and devote funds to CA-04 and elsewhere.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean McNerney

STATE SENATE (District size: ~846,791) (Composition: 25 Democrats, 15 Republicans)

Safe:

SD-01 (Northeast, including Tahoe and Mother Lode): Dave Cox (R)

SD-03 (North Bay, part of San Francisco): Mark Leno (D) – vacated by Carole Migden (D)

SD-05 (Sacramento River Delta): Lois Wolk (D) – vacated by Michael Machado (D)

SD-07 (Most of Contra Costa County): Mark DeSaulnier (D) – vacated by Tom Torlakson (D)

SD-09 (Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond): Loni Hancock (D) – vacated by Don Perata (D)

SD-11 (Silicon Valley, most of Santa Cruz County): Joe Simitian (D)

SD-13 (Most of Santa Clara County including San Jose): Elaine Alquist (D)

SD-15 (Central Coast, part of Santa Clara County): Abel Maldonado (R)

STATE ASSEMBLY (District size: ~423,388) (Composition: 48 Democrats, 32 Republicans)

AD-01 (North Coast): Wesley Chesbro (D) – vacated by Patty Berg (D)

AD-02 (Sacramento Valley): Jim Nielsen (R) – vacated by Doug LaMalfa (R)

AD-03 (Northeast): Dan Logue (R) – vacated by Rick Keene (R)

AD-04 (Tahoe): Ted Gaines (R) – unopposed

AD-05 (Northern Sacramento suburbs): Roger Niello (R)

AD-06 (North Bay): Jared Huffman (D)

AD-07 (Napa Valley): Noreen Evans (D)

AD-08 (Sacramento River Delta): Mariko Yamada (D) – vacated by Lois Wolk (D)

AD-09 (Sacramento): Dave Jones (D)

AD-11 (Northern Contra Costa County): Tom Torlakson (D) – vacated by Mark DeSaulnier (D)

AD-12 (Western San Francisco): Fiona Ma (D)

AD-13 (Eastern San Francisco): Tom Ammiano (D) – vacated by Mark Leno (D)

AD-14 (Berkeley, Richmond): Nancy Skinner (D) – unopposed – vacated by Loni Hancock (D)

AD-16 (Oakland): Sandré Swanson (D)

AD-17 (Stockton, Merced): Cathleen Galgiani (D)

AD-18 (Eastern Oakland suburbs): Mary Hayashi (D)

AD-19 (Most of San Mateo County): Gerald Hill (D) – vacated by Gene Mullin (D)

AD-20 (Southern East Bay): Alberto Torrico (D)

AD-21 (Silicon Valley): Ira Ruskin (D)

AD-22 (Western San Jose): Paul Fong (D) – vacated by Sally Lieber (D)

AD-23 (Downtown San Jose): Joe Coto (D)

AD-24 (Southern San Jose): Jim Beall (D)

AD-25 (Mother Lode, Yosemite): Tom Berryhill (R)

AD-27 (Northern Central Coast): Bill Monning (D) – vacated by John Laird (D)

AD-28 (Inner Central Coast region): Anna Caballero – unopposed

AD-29 (Eastern Fresno): Michael Villines (R)

AD-31 (Western Fresno): Juan Arambula (D)

AD-32 (Bakersfield): Jean Fuller (R)

AD-33 (Part of southern Central Coast): Sam Blakeslee (R)

AD-34 (Big Empty): Connie Conway (R) – vacated by Bill Maze (R)

Now, for the races to watch:

AD-10 (Eastern Sacramento suburbs): Jack Sieglock (R) vs. Alyson Huber (D), Janice Bonser (L) – vacated by Alan Nakanishi (R)

Registration: R+1.97%

Profile: You know you’re in trouble when the interior voice of your own party is voicing great concern over a seat, in this case, the California ~~Yacht~~ Republican Party’s voice Jon Fleischman being concerned over the 10th Assembly district ( http://calitics.com/showDiary…. ). What was once a 6% Republican advantage in registration has shrunk to a 2% advantage, and Sieglock had a much tougher time in the primary than Huber. If we have a really good GOTV, we can count on wins here and elsewhere to put us at 2/3!

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-15 (Inner East Bay): Abram Wilson (R) vs. Joan Buchanan (D) – vacated by Guy Houston (R)

Registration: D+1.31%

Profile: Like the 10th, the Republican candidate in this one survived a really tough primary while the Democrat cruised through and is sitting pretty on a comfortable cash advantage. With a well-oiled turnout machine, we can win here, and if we do, we will shut out Republicans in every legislative seat in the Bay Area! A recent poll has Buchanan in the lead.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Lean Buchanan

AD-26 (Stockton, Modesto): Bill Berryhill (R) vs. John Eisenhut (D) – vacated by Greg Aghazarian (R)

Registration: D+1.99%

Profile: While this district has trended blue also, it will be a bit more competitive for us than the 10th and 15th. Eisenhut is a local almond farmer and fits the district well, while Berryhill is counting on name ID from his brother Tom in the neighboring 25th district and his father, who represented this area in the state legislature in the 1960s, to win.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up

AD-30 (Southern San Joaquin Valley): Fran Florez (D) vs. Danny Gilmore (R) – vacated by Nicole Parra (D)

Registration: D+9.15%

Profile: Normally this district is not competitive, but the polarizing Yacht Dog Parra made the past 3 elections in this district closer than they should have been. Fortunately, she’s on her way out, and Shafter Mayor Fran Florez, Sen. Dean Florez’s mother, looks to be in a comfortable position to keep this seat in our column. The fact that voters in the Central Valley are fleeing the GOP ( http://www.istockanalyst.com/a… ) further adds to Florez’s advantage.

9/18/2008 Outlook: Likely Florez

Well, that’s it for the NorCal and CenCal races. Tomorrow, look for an analysis of the SoCal races, as well as a summary of the races we need to zero in on to win this fall.

California Race Chart (Part 1 of 3: Statewide Races)

Inspired by skywaker9’s diary on this year’s races in Oregon ( http://www.swingstateproject.c… ), I decided to create one for California, breaking up my analysis into 3 parts since there is so much to cover in my big, beautiful state. This is Part 1 of my series, which will cover the statewide races, which for California are only the presidential race and the ballot measures, since our statewide officeholders, Boxer, and Feinstein are not up this year. The other two diaries will be on the Congressional and State Legislature races; Part 2 Northern/Central California and Part 3 Southern California.

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary….

Here is the most recent registration data: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/ro…

Here is the list of candidates that will appear on the ballot: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/el…

Statewide Layout

Democrats: 7,053,860 (43.75%)

Republicans: 5,244,394 (32.53%)

Decline to State: 3,128,684 (19.40%)

Others: 696,849 (4.32%)

Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in the case of open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.

D: Democratic

R: Republican

L: Libertarian

G: Green

AI: American Independent

PF: Peace and Freedom

I: Independent

Race Ratings

Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%

Lean: Margin by 5-10%

Likely: Margin by 10-15%

Strong: Margin by 15-20%

Solid: Margin by more than 20%

U.S. President: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Bob Barr (L), Alan Keyes (AI), Cynthia McKinney (G), and Ralph Nader (PF)

Profile: Obama’s win of our whopping 55 electoral votes is a foregone conclusion; no matter how many times McSame says he can compete here.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Obama

Ballot Measures: A whopping 12 measures will be on the California ballot this fall. Information can be found here: http://www.smartvoter.org/2008… Field has released polls on 1A, 2, 4, 7, and 11. http://www.field.com/fieldpoll…

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Rail): This measure would issue $9.95 billion of general obligation bonds for a $40 billion high speed train, connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles, under supervision of the California High-Speed Rail Authority. The train would run from San Francisco to Los Angeles. So far, this measure is passing 56-30, and I strongly urge my fellow Californians to vote for this measure! You can find more information on 1A at California High Speed Rail Blog: http://cahsr.blogspot.com/

9/17/2008 Outlook: Likely/Strong Pass

Prop. 2 (Regulations on Animal Confinement): This measure would prohibit the confinement of farm animals that basically does not allow them to be comfortable, imposing a misdemeanor penalty and fine or imprisonment for violators, and bans cages for egg-laying poultry, gestation crates for sows and veal crates for veal calves. This measure is also passing by an overwhelming margin.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass

Prop. 3 (Children’s Hospital Bond): This bond issue would authorize $980 million for improvements on children’s hospitals. A similar measure, Prop 61, passed 58-42 in 2004, so for now I can say that 3 will pass also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass

Prop. 4 (Waiting Period and Parental Notification): Those anti-choice folks just never give up, and are hoping that the third time will be a charm. Like its predecessors 73 and 85, this one would prohibit abortion for minors until 48 hours after physician notification, only this one mentions an alternative adult family member in the case of reported parental abuse. Still, the addition of that change does not change my staunch opposition to this at all. Right now, though, this measure is passing 48-39%. I can only hope those affirmative numbers go down.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail

Prop. 5 (Nonviolent Drug Offenses): This measure would allocate $460 million annually for expansion and improvement of treatment programs for nonviolent drug offenders, limiting court authority to incarcerate offenders who commit certain drug crimes or break treatment rules or parole. So far no polls have been released, so I can’t make an accurate prediction as to how this measure will fare.